There are three polls this weekend asking about voting intentions in the European Parliament election:

A YouGov poll conducted for Hope Not Hate has topline European election voting intentions of CON 13%(-4), LAB 22%(nc), LDEM 7%(-2), BREX 28%(+5), UKIP 5%(-1), GRN 10%(nc), ChUK 10%(+2). Fieldwork was between Tuesday and Friday, and changes are from YouGov’s previous European election poll the week before. It suggests the Brexit party continue to grow in support, largely at the expense of the Tories. Tables are here.

Opinium have topline European voting intentions of CON 14%(-3), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 7%(-3), BREX 28%(+16), UKIP 3%(-10), GRN 6%(nc), ChUK 7%(+3). Fieldwork was Sunday to Tuesday, and changes are since the start of the month (notably, Opinium’s previous European poll was before the launch of the Brexit party, so repeats the massive transfer of support from UKIP to Brexit that we saw in YouGov’s previous poll conducted just after the Brexit party’s launch). Full tabs are here.

Finally Survation have topline figures of CON 16%, LAB 27%, LDEM 8%, BREX 27%, UKIP 7%, GRN 4%, ChUK 4%. Fieldwork was between the 17th and 25th April. Full tables are here.

All three polls have the Conservatives doing extremely badly, down in the teens. All three have the Brexit party performing strongly in the high twenties, seemingly taking over the vast majority of UKIP’s previous support (it would be unlikely that UKIP would retain any seats on the levels of support suggested here). There is more of a contrast in Labour support – YouGov have them in the low twenties, six points behind the Brexit party. Survation & Opinium have them doing better, neck-and-neck with the Brexit party for first place. Finally, Survation have Change UK on just 4%, Opinium have them on 7%, YouGov on 10%. Part of that difference will likely be down to timing – YouGov’s poll was the only one of the three polls conducted wholly after Change UK’s launch, which may well have given them at least a temporary boost.


1,992 Responses to “European election polling”

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  1. Polls likely to continue to shift around, plus so much uncertainty over turnout.

  2. A good update AW.

    Turnout likely to be low among Conservative pro-Brexit voters, who are said not to put a lot of store on the work of the European Parliament.

  3. These polls sare breathtaking given that there are still over three weeks to go.

    Could we possibly see such figures by the next GE if TM refuses to go?

  4. @PROFHOWARD

    In a similar vein – unless there’s a huge rise in turnout for these European elections, there are a lot of people in these voting figures who won’t actually vote. So whether they are spread roughly consistently between parties and indeed between regions could make a massive difference to what actually happens?

  5. The three Scottish SNP samples are;

    Survation: 37%, Opinium: 46%, YouGov: 42%.

    Little indications that Change or Brexit are hurting the SNP vote. I think a third SNP seat is all but certain and depending how much churn threes between Parties a fourth is a real possibility.

    Peter.

  6. @Oldnat

    “Devolution was fine, as long as Labour ruled at Westminster, Cardiff and Edinburgh, but tolerating Difference is another matter altogether!”

    Interesting statement. Given that a majority in HR is almost impossible most of the time, and we can agree completely impossible for Tories, then a devolved Scotland will be at odds with Westminster rule while Holyrood exists. Labour can win / win again in theory, but it’s not likely in the foreseeable future.

    On AW’s polls, what the top line figures hide are the Brexit party’s regional split. mid to high teens in Scotland and London, and low 30s elsewhere. Basically akin to the Brexit vote, as it happens.

    Does the Brexit Party have any policies? Answers on a postcard. :D

  7. Threes should there is…I’d blame predictive text but it was just bad typing!

    Peter.

  8. As to turnout by region, there is a wide disparity between these 3 polls.

    Opinium records the highest levels of CTV (certain to vote) with Wales at 83%, Scotland at 79% and Southern England (highest of the English regions) at 68%.

    The Survation sample has much lower levels of CTV –

    Scotland 58%, Wales 55%, NI and Yorkshire & Humberside (highest of the English regions) at 52%.

    YG just records those CNTV and the lowest are London (highest of the English regions) 11%, Scotland 13% – compared with 15-16% in other English regions.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if turnout was highest in Scotland (with its two constitutional issues inter-related on this), maybe NI? (Lucid Talk have a poll in the field at the moment) and in Remain areas of England.

  9. Do people think that these turnout numbers are likely to happen (ie that this European election will have a turnout akin to a recent GE rather than the usual 35-45%)?

    And if not, do you think the polls are dropping many of the non-voters out at the “bothering to respond” stage and we’re generally seeing polls of the people likely to vote, or that we’re seeing VI as expressed by a substantial number of people who won’t actually vote?

  10. STATGEEK

    @”Does the Brexit Party have any policies? Answers on a postcard. :D”

    They don’t have a manifesto.

    Don’t seem to need one though :-)

  11. EDGE OF REASON

    Replied to you near end of previous thread.

  12. Kudos to AW. This was his prediction from previous thread:

    “the Brexit party will still be largely unknown and many respondents will be unaware that they are now the party of Nigel Farage, rather than UKIP, and I’d expect them to gain support as they gain publicity”

    Kudos also to Leavers who are more attuned to politics than I expected and have moved quicker and in greater numbers than I expected.

    I posted on last thread about the value in looking at the Opinium x-breaks as they split the two main parties by Remain and Leave so you can make a guess about how much more CON VI might move to Team Nige. Fair to assume very few CON-Remain will move (but that was the smaller % to begin with) so look to the CON-Leave column (“R”) to see that 42% are staying loyal and 34% have moved to Farage. Also note the LAB-Leave (column “T”) – smaller number to begin with any only 14% of that smaller number going BXP.

    So far BXP are not causing much concern to LAB and even if LAB backed a new ref the number of LAB Leavers was quite small. IMHO they vote split they’ll cause on the RoC side will keep “heartlands” seats Red and the Farage threat should not stand in the way of LAB backing a new ref (or revoke if/when it comes to that).

  13. EOR

    “Do people think that these turnout numbers are likely to happen (ie that this European election will have a turnout akin to a recent GE rather than the usual 35-45%)?”

    I suspect they might be much higher this time.

    Previously, these elections were for MEPs sitting in a Parliament that the Great British (© BBC) Electorate weren’t told much about, and consequently cared little.

    This time, they probably still won’t give a damn about what these MEPs actually do (or don’t in the case of UKIP/Brexit ones) but they’ve now been told that “Europe” is a hugely important place, and they care deeply about Remaining in /Leaving that beneficent/dastardly institution.

  14. Exit poll in Spain suggests win for Socialists in terms of share of votes and seats, but they will need to form a coalition to govern. Far Right surge and collapse in support for Conservative People’s Party (PP).

  15. @ OLDNAT – the rapid gain in BXP VI would suggest Leavers are pretty angry and aware of May’s “betrayal”. That’s a pretty strong incentive to GOTV – especially for coffin dodgers with nothing to do all day ;)

    Also the Civil War within and between Remain parties might not be the strongest incentive to GOTV (in E+W anyway, clearer choices in Scotland and NI)

    Within the Remain vote then we’ll also have to wait and see what LAB state in their manifesto, that could make a difference. Bit of uproar about the “draft” leaflet not including new ref. I’m sure the other parties will make full use of Corbyn’s fence sitting but a confused voter is probably less likely to vote perhaps?

    (just arguing the other side, no idea what turnout will be but as others have posted it will almost certainly be less than what folks state as CTV/LTV and hence who wins on GOTV is probably more important than a few % on polls – CON Leave certainly need to send a message to CCHQ via voting for Brexit (party) and not abstaining)

  16. CB11

    Re Spanish election

    From Catalan News

    Socialists 128 seats
    People’s Party 68 seats
    Ciudadanos 50 seats
    Unidas Podemos & allies 40 seats
    Vox 21 seats
    Esquerra 15 seats
    Junts per Catalunya 7 seats
    Front Republicà 0 seats

    After 20% of the vote counted

  17. @Trevor Warne

    “……especially for coffin dodgers with nothing to do all day ;)”

    Careful Trev. Expect the wrath of Colin for such gratuitous offensiveness!

    :-)

  18. FWIW the bookies have BXP about 65% probability to get most seats in EP, LAB close to 35% and the others obviously then very near 0%.

    Seems reasonable to me, although if LAB go all out Remain and Remain voters get behind a tactical vote they could probably beat BXP (I agree with Watson on that)

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.157640026

  19. @OldNat

    Thanks for the seat check from Spanish election. There’s no right wing coalition available and it looks like the Nationalists will be the kingmakers. Socialists + Podemos + Junts per Catalunya = Government.

    Sanchez the real winner from the night, I think. Flying the flag for mainstream centre-left politics in Europe. He’s a good man too and I’m pleased for him.

  20. In the NI council elections this week it will be interesting for me

    — to see if the growth parties of the last decade (Alliance, Greens, DUP, SF) continue to grow,

    — or will the SDLP and/or UUP stage a revival.

    Have a feeling Alliance & Greens will grow and UUP might hold level. But we shall see.

  21. Note quite sure on the SF-SDLP battle — but I think SF will perhaps increase a bit more at the expense of SDLP. SDLP have been a bit divided because of a proposed alliance with FF which has divided their party.

  22. I like that YouGov have split the vote by actual EP constituencies. To be fair, Survation do too, but their tables are far more difficult to read. So just for fun, I applies d’Hondt plus some fudge factors to the YouGov splits, and came up with an estimate for mainland MEPs thus:

    BREX 25
    LAB 19
    CON 11
    GRN 5
    CHX 3
    LIBDEM 3
    SNP 3
    PC 1

    YouGov is definitely better for the small parties, plus I’ve maybe been a bit generous to PC too, they may struggle to get an MEP on those figures. Taking Survation would give less MEPs to the small parties, and even some to UKIP. The Brexit party number could still go up if they poach more votes from UKIP, but as it stands these results are not so different to 2014, the main difference being CON bleeding some MEPs to the smaller parties.

  23. We have no polls in NI – so its all guess work :(.

  24. CB11

    “it looks like the Nationalists will be the kingmakers.”

    Wrong terminology for the Kingdom of Spain!

    “Nationalists” means Spanish Nationalists – whether of the Far Right, Centre Right, Centre Left or Far Left.

    The term for those wanting independence from the Kingdom is “Independistas” (who may also span that same political spectrum).

  25. @Turk Kellner fag packet assumptions seem to be based on he’s assumption that all the people who have died since 2016 actually voted leave and that all those who have reached a age of being able to vote are either going to vote dispite what they say or are indeed going to vote remain.

    Kellner did not assumed that two thirds of those who have died voted leave. This seems to be based on the assumption that all those who have died are elderly which is not true and gives the calculation a fag packet appearance. His assumption about the young was that only those who told YouGov that they were 100 per cent certain to vote would actually do so. So this too is clearly a bit of a rough and ready calculation, but not one that is vulnerable to the specific accusations levelled by Turk.

    That said, his finding that 87 percent of these new voters would vote remain is very striking. Clearly those who say that it is undemocratic to go back on a promise that a vote would be binding have a point. Other things being equal one should keep one’s word. It is, however, also true that only a very odd definition of democracy forbids people to change their minds. A version of democracy that binds the vast majority of the young for the foreseeable future to a fate which their elders want but they themselves do not, is a gerontocracy and not a democracy at all.

  26. Colin

    I think we need to think of the brexit party as the leavers little joke on the EU ,a sort of two fingered salute not only to the EU but those in Parliament who have conspired to delay/block brexit.
    I bet Tusk and Junker didn’t foresee the sudden rise of the brexit party.

    I would think if Farage and his party do well it will give May the chance to return to the Irish problem and renegotiate her deal given that any deal with Labour is unlikely to come to anything.

    Maybe the thought of Farage and his team disrupting the great EU plan may be enough to create a means to kill two birds with one stone get Farage out and May’s plan through.

    Of course that would mean the Tories secretly hoping the brexit party does well, maybe that’s a bit to Machiavellian but we do live in strange times.

  27. Turnout history for UK EP elections:

    2004: 38.5%
    2009: 34.7%
    2014: 35.6%

    Looking at 2014 the Opinion polls were pretty close to the actual result (ie the overstating of LTV was fairly evenly spread). You could say UKIP was performed slightly less than expected (and CON slightly better) but well within MoE ranges.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom#2014

    Looking at 2009 the opinion polls were pretty close as well:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom#Opinion_polls

  28. @ Turk

    “I bet Tusk and Junker didn’t foresee the sudden rise of the brexit party.”

    Well, maybe, but as I think I’ve pointed out before, this is nothing new in EP. Nigel Farages’s party (which happened to be UKIP at the time) already had 24 MEPs at the start of the 2014 session. So the 25 estimate above is not much different to last time. Now they might do a little better, we shall see, but even so, I think Juncker and co have already had 5 years to get used to UKIP/Brexit antics, this won’t be much different to what they’ve already got used to.

  29. Now I shall go and shoot myself. Reading what one has just written (with no ability to correct) can be very painful.

  30. Robert Hayward has given his prediction for this week’s elections.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/28/tories-should-expect-to-lose-800-seats-in-local-elections-says-analyst

    “Tory peer Robert Hayward suggested his party could lose about 500 to the Liberal Democrats, and 300 to Labour.”

    He got 2018 nearly correct – he predicted the Tories would lose 100 councillors in London, in the event they lost 92, and he correctly called out the incorrect polls in 2015 before the event, so he clearly knows his stuff, or has access to information we don’t have.

    If he is correct, will the news be a ‘Lib Dem’ surge on Friday morning? Where does that leave the remain voters trying to decide between CHUK, Greens, Lib Dems in the EU elections and which of those is a wasted vote? [all of them are wasted with current polling]

    Will remain voters consolidate under one remain party like we have seen with leave voters? I think the Lib Dems have an opportunity next week to start to consolidate the remain vote under their banner.

  31. @RICHARD

    Worth noting that in between those elections he predicted a Tory majority of 75 the week before the 2017 GE.

  32. @ TURK – The problem with backing May’s plan will be that it will kick Farage out of Brussels (possibly before he even gets there) and back to UK politics. BXP are not hurting LAB and ChUK-TIG are a damp squib so Corbyn is very unlikely to give around ground.

    The 26 pages of waffle known as the PD will take years of painful negotiation (and probably capitulation) and now Farage has risen from the dead the only way to kill him will be to go “No Deal” (which HoC will not allow although there are some constitutional and legal issues and if we run down the clock again then maybe Macron will help?).

    CON backing “No Deal” and HoC forcing Revoke then a GE is probably too late now as well. Folks will not believe CON are serious about a Clean Brexit next time having messed it up this time – that baggage will stick with CON in the same way Tuition Fees has stuck with LDEM.

    This was a massive massive own goal by May. Having stated No Deal is better than a Bad Deal and then seeing her deal fail 3x she should never have agreed to an extension that allowed Farage back.

    She was empowered by the Brady Amendment to get the WA changed but didn’t even attempt to get it changed. The new extension terms do not permit her to reopen the WA (although that might not apply to a new CON leader)

    CCHQ will have a few options (eg a 1-way informal pact with BXP where BXP do not compete in Brexiteer seats but CON do not formally reciprocate[1]) but they are much worse and much harder due to her incompetence (and these options now also rely on the help and errors of others)

    I’m not going to claim I predicted the timing or magnitude of the drop in CON VI and rise of BXP but I have always focussed on the x-breaks and how “Leavey” CON VI x-breaks have been so seeing that CON would take a big hit on VI by delaying Brexit can not be a surprise to anyone.

    (cue DANNY’s bonkers conspiracy theory I’m sure)

    [1] I expect most folks are aware of the rumour of the “Spartans” pact (Farage will not post BXP candidate in the 28 CON Arch-Leavers constituencies). Those folks are not going May and I would not surprised if many others who backed May in MV3 (WA only) now turn against her. She is toxic and has to go, asap.

  33. @TRIGGUY

    I take your point about UKIP’s success in 2014, but their ongoing electoral threat was reduced and then nullified by promising and then holding an in/out referendum. And from the EP’s perspective then yes maybe there’s very little difference between these polls and the last results.

    But on the wider political question…that solution isn’t available a second time – if the Tory government doesn’t go forward and deliver what these voters would consider a meaningful Brexit, how are the Tories going to get the votes back?

  34. In Spain, after 78% of the vote counted

    Socialists 123 seats
    People’s Party 65 seats
    Ciudadanos 57 seats
    Unidas Podemos & allies 42 seats
    Vox 24 seats
    Esquerra 15 seats
    Junts per Catalunya 7 seats
    (Catalan News)

  35. EDGE OF REASON

    Thanks. Responded to your reply on the previous thread.

    I agree with OLDNAT that the MEP elections in May are also likely to have an increased turnout. The results of those elections will also help towards predicting the turnout of a confirmatory vote should A50 not be revoked by the HMG.

  36. Re the YG Full Scottish poll

    No link to the tables or methodology yet, but assuming that they are polling (as normal) only those aged 18 or over, that suggests that including 16-17 year olds might tip the indy question the other way – to a small Yes majority.

    It would also affect the accuracy of their Holyrood election VI reports.

  37. Opinium have an English local election poll.

    Reported that it says “Labour 31%, Tories 25%, LibDems 9% but 12% undecided and only 56% sure to vote”

  38. @ EoR

    “But on the wider political question…that solution isn’t available a second time”

    Or perhaps that option is available (ie another referendum) but it’s probably not going to help them this time. I agree that they’re in a bit of a hole, delivering Brexit seems like the only option for the Tories now, but they still can’t agree how to do it. They’ve lost so much ground to Farage (history repeating itself), they need to pull something very special out of the hat to stop the tide, it seems.

    But I was originally making the rather narrower point that sending lots of Eurosceptics to Brussels is not a new phenomenon for us. And it may still be that only sit for a short time, if at all.

  39. TURK
    @”I think we need to think of the brexit party as the leavers little joke on the EU ”

    Yes , very much so !

    I can’t see through to the endgame on TM’s WA +PD. Jim Jam’s recent post about Labour’s intent destroyed what little hope I had. Should have stuck to my instincts.

  40. @ ON

    Re: Opinium LE poll.

    Interesting figures, but needs some interpretation. I think, from the tables, that they’ve excluded areas where no votes are taking place. And since those include many Labour strongholds (London for example), these VI figures should be expected to be from the more Conservative voting areas. So a Labour lead of 6 points may be even more dramatic then it seems at first. Along with the 800 seat loss prediction in the above link, I also saw a headline in the Daily Express (while passing it in a shop, I hasten to add) that predicted a loss of 1000 Tory councillors. I wonder if there’s a element of expectation management in some of these numbers.

    Anyway, Thursday should be interesting (or rather Friday morning). At least we can be sure this election is going to go ahead.

  41. TREVORs

    She [=May] is toxic and has to go, asap.

    How? Have you forgotten that the Con’s 1922 committee have only recently confirmed that the existing rules on defenestrating Con leaders will not be changed and thus giving May until December before she can be removed against her will?

  42. TW

    @”. That’s a pretty strong incentive to GOTV – especially for coffin dodgers with nothing to do all day ;)”

    Well now -let me tell you about the coffin dodgers of my acquaintance.

    To a man & woman they are pi88ed off all right-that is for sure.
    .
    Pi88ed off that, at short notice their Village Hall booking officer has told their favourite activity group that all user groups can forget their reservations for THursday 23 May.
    My own Short Mat Bowls Club is one such . I am aware of bowls clubs which have league competitions starting on that day whose programme for the rest of the year is now kaput. Badminton, Art, Classes, Pilates, Grandchildren’s Nursery Group, WI, Friendship Clubs etc etc.etc.

    Will this persuade the loyal & active members of all these coffin dodging activity groups to vote in the unwelcome & pointless election whose polling stations have disrupted their cherished leasure time activity ?

    I’ll give you three guesses .

  43. TW

    We had much the same arguments about UKIP in the end it came to nothing. Farage never had the bottle to stand for election to HoC.

    Although it’s likely the brexit party would do well in the EU elections if they happen.

    When it comes to a general election a party with a single aim and no policies on things people really care about tend to have little effect in GE.

    And even if they do well in a GE all that will happen is Labour will become the Government and they will ditch brexit so I’m afraid your likely to be disappointed whatever happens.

    It’s a pity that the idiots that populate the ERG spent so much time and energy undermining May all they have achieved is to stop brexit happening and allow Corbyn and his cronies a reasonable chance of forming the next government so shame on them.

  44. I would be interested to hear what JimJam thinks the outcome of Tuesday’s Labour manifesto meeting will be. What can the Labour leadership put in to keep everyone happy?

    The fence Corbyn is sitting on has gone from a comfy post and rail to barbed wire.

  45. This day in 1941: new Gallup poll shows 81% of Americans are against going to war with Germany & Italy.

  46. 95% of the vote counted in Spain:

    PSOE 28.7% (122 seats)
    PP 16.7% (65)
    Cs 15.8% (57)
    Podemos 12% (35)
    Vox 10.3% (24)
    ERC 3.9% (15)

    (via Alberto Nardelli)

  47. TURK

    Agree about Farage & Westminster.

    We will leave by the new deadline -either with a Deal or without one.
    Either way the Brexit Party has no purpose then.

  48. Prof Howard

    You have to be a clever politician to take your country on a course that it believed it was set against.

  49. @TRIGGUY

    Yes, I realise your initial point was about the EP, I was just curious about the wider parallel being less of an “as you were” and more something rather more difficult.

    On the seat loss thing, yes the last few years there has been a lot of expectation management in the media by Lab/Con in advance of locals.

    But barring cycle changes etc, these are being defended from the 2015 GE day, and the last time the Tories fought many of these English seats at a low point after winning them at a high point would be 1995 vs 1991, when they lost horrendously (over 2000 seats but depending how/whether the new unitary authorities in Scotland and Wales were being counted for gain/loss the English figure might be more like 1700).

    So I could also believe that there are those on the Blue team thinking that -800 would be a decent escape this time if their vote won’t turn out.

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