There are three polls this weekend asking about voting intentions in the European Parliament election:

A YouGov poll conducted for Hope Not Hate has topline European election voting intentions of CON 13%(-4), LAB 22%(nc), LDEM 7%(-2), BREX 28%(+5), UKIP 5%(-1), GRN 10%(nc), ChUK 10%(+2). Fieldwork was between Tuesday and Friday, and changes are from YouGov’s previous European election poll the week before. It suggests the Brexit party continue to grow in support, largely at the expense of the Tories. Tables are here.

Opinium have topline European voting intentions of CON 14%(-3), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 7%(-3), BREX 28%(+16), UKIP 3%(-10), GRN 6%(nc), ChUK 7%(+3). Fieldwork was Sunday to Tuesday, and changes are since the start of the month (notably, Opinium’s previous European poll was before the launch of the Brexit party, so repeats the massive transfer of support from UKIP to Brexit that we saw in YouGov’s previous poll conducted just after the Brexit party’s launch). Full tabs are here.

Finally Survation have topline figures of CON 16%, LAB 27%, LDEM 8%, BREX 27%, UKIP 7%, GRN 4%, ChUK 4%. Fieldwork was between the 17th and 25th April. Full tables are here.

All three polls have the Conservatives doing extremely badly, down in the teens. All three have the Brexit party performing strongly in the high twenties, seemingly taking over the vast majority of UKIP’s previous support (it would be unlikely that UKIP would retain any seats on the levels of support suggested here). There is more of a contrast in Labour support – YouGov have them in the low twenties, six points behind the Brexit party. Survation & Opinium have them doing better, neck-and-neck with the Brexit party for first place. Finally, Survation have Change UK on just 4%, Opinium have them on 7%, YouGov on 10%. Part of that difference will likely be down to timing – YouGov’s poll was the only one of the three polls conducted wholly after Change UK’s launch, which may well have given them at least a temporary boost.


1,992 Responses to “European election polling”

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  1. https://www.flavible.com/politics/map/polls.php?sid=1935
    New Political map based on ComRes
    Lab 330
    Con 112
    Lib Dem 79
    SNP53
    BRX 51
    PC 4
    Green 2

    Nicola Surgeon likes it because she retweeted it

  2. I was looking at 2014 polling to see if there was any evidence that responders got confused about which election they were being asked about or if, for example, just having voted UKIP on their EU ballot paper, they just gave the same response but it does look like they were able to differentiate (ie Tory Westminster voting intention stable).

    Some of those Westminster polls tonight do look unprecedented. I still think the two party system will largely hold in the heat of a campaign but wouldn’t like to put my house on it now.

  3. @HIRETON

    “In the context of QT (which was where this started), the approach is to go around the UK and have politicians from the regionally prominent parties on. It doesn’t seem outrageous that most of the shows are therefore from regions of England and featuring politicians from English parties.”

    Not outrageous if you are a British nationalist who sees the nations of the UK as “regions” equivalent to a county or two in England.

    For me as a Welsh person that’s a tricky question – in some contexts it seems evidently true, in most other contexts it seems evidently not true. National elections and Westminster politics come into the former camp for me, because when they vote on Brexit or a budget or anything else that affects the UK as a whole, MPs from everywhere are elected the same and counted the same.

    Obviously in other ways even politics in Wales is of quite a different nature compared to say the West Midlands, but then there’s specific BBC programming and news coverage that focuses on Wales as a polity, presumably the same is true in Scotland and NI? (whether such programmes and coverage are any good is of course a different question!)

    So yeah in terms of Question Time I don’t have a problem with Welsh politicians being represented similarly to say those from Greater Manchester, cos we have similar populations and similar input to the UK political picture.

  4. Oldnat

    I suppose that in Scotland at the moment supporting Labour is unpopular.

  5. Interesting point from a Scots Prof based in England –

    “English voters aren’t used to being asked about more than one election at a time, so WM polls are entirely useless, even as a snapshot, until Euros are over.”

  6. @PROFHOWARD
    “Nick Clegg – who settled for something very short last time. He should have taken up Gordon Browns offer of PR without a referendum

    What Nick Clegg did, which was to let the biggest post war opportunity for radical reform of political arrangements to slip through his fingers, was unforgivable.

    To have gained such little for giving up what was a position of potentially immense power is baffling.

  7. But BBC R4 prefer to report a poll that gives BrexitP a sensational lead in the EP election rather than the ComRes one.

    If they had any intention of serving the whole UK, they could have reported the large variation in BRXP support between the EP constituencies. Obviously that is low in their priorities.

  8. That’s now two polls today (Opinium and Comres), both conducted after LE2019, to show LD ahead of Conservatives for EU VI – and both also showing LD pulling away from CHuK.

    The lead over Cons is only 1% in each, but that is likely to grow. Our campaign is in full swing, whereas Conservatives are not doing anything at all. Also, it is clear that many remain voters have not yet decided between LD, CHUK and Greens, waiting to see which has the best chance. As the evidence mounts that LD are the leading remainers, we will pick up more from them.

  9. Like many, I’m normally cynical about the MSM’s motives on anything, but the Sunday Mail’s response to us cynics is interesting as to why they are supporting the SGP.

    1. This is genuinely about pushing climate change up the agenda and recognising that there are more important issues than Brexit.
    2. Contrary to popular belief we have not backed Labour in an election in recent memory. It is not a huge snub to Labour.
    3. It is absolutely not about taking pro-indy votes from the SNP. This election should neither be about Brexit alone nor Indy alone.
    4. The Greens narrowly lost to UKIP in 2014 for the “last” of the six Scottish places, sending David Coburn to Strasbourg. Would be a great result to reverse.

    Sometimes leopards can change their spots.

  10. and possible some Con Remain will go for the Lib dems when they see Tories floundering in the polls. Some Labour will also be more likely to jump on the Lib Dem bandwagon

  11. Just to contextualize those EP figures (look very believable to me, both ComRes and Opinium, just for slightly different reasons).

    East Midlands Region – 5 MEPs
    Eastern Region – 7 MEPs
    London Region – 8 MEPs
    North East Region – 3 MEPs
    North West Region – 8 MEPs
    Northern Ireland – 3 MEPs
    Scotland – 6 MEPs
    South East Region – 10 MEPs
    South West Region – 6 MEPs
    Wales – 4 MEPs
    West Midlands Region – 7 MEPs
    Yorkshire and the Humber – 6 MEPs

    In Westminster elections, because of the relatively large number of the seats, the concentration of the votes has less effect in England (!), although it was marginally higher in the 2017 elections.

    However, the likelihood of the Brexit Party’s concentration in the EP elections is relatively high (cf. with both referendum and the Westminster polls), thus I could see them getting close to 50% in some places and (together with UKIP) around 15% in others. Thus it it is quite possible that they would get significantly fewer seats than the VI suggests.

    I wouldn’t rely on crossbreaks (when they are released) partially because it is unlikely to follow the regions, and also because of the small samples

  12. Oldnat,

    I first heard it about politicians but I am sure it applies to papers too;

    If your given a list, it’s in the order they think you’ll like and the real reason isn’t on it!

    or to put it another way

    The Sunday Mail is trying to hurt the SNP.

    Peter.

  13. Comres fits in with most for the Euros, with the 6 Scottish Seats;

    SNP 3 (1,3 & 6) Lab 1 (2) Con 1 (4) BXT 1 (5)

    Too early I suppose for the Sunday Mails “Green Surge!”, which sounds ominously like the aftermath of a Curry.

    Actually if the Sunday Mail really does believe there’s a Climate Emergency, it could always stop cutting down trees that take 40 years to grow to make Newspapers that a binned after a day!

    Peter.

  14. Looks like Boris will be the next Tory leader. They really have no other options now? Better to do it sooner rather than later?

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1127320015215132673

    Then we move rapidly into no deal Brexit? Unless moderate Tories then resign the whip as they say they will and take us into an election which now seems a Labour certain win (albeit with no overall majority).

    Unless the Tories merge with the Brexit party, or the Brexit party is happy enough with Boris as leader that they stand aside to see Brexit through (because that worked so well last time..maybe not)

    That famous flowchart needs updating….

  15. At 46% I make the ComRes Westminster poll the lowest combined CON + LAB… ever?

    (they were at 46.5% in the famous Alliance 50% poll according to Anthony’s archive)

  16. @Andrew111

    Pete B
    Of course the Independents had boots on the ground. But you dont need many boots on the ground to win a small district council ward, just be prepared to spend a month or two working hard at getting elected. It is why there are realtively few Independents in the Mets, where you need a lot of organisation to win a seat if you are not one of tge big two.

    It also helps if a local newspaper editor has been banging the independent drum for sometime, while degrading the incumbents.

  17. @richard “Looks like Boris will be the next Tory leader. They really have no other options now? Better to do it sooner rather than later?”

    Johnson would have to make it through the mps ballot and get onto the last 2. He is widely disliked in amongst his colleagues. I think someone like Raab or penny mourdant – younger, fresher, less divisive – is more likely to end up the brexiteer candidate that’s put before the members. Gove would be my bet for the other candidate – on a “unity” ticket.

  18. Very, very interesting polling recently (interesting as in a total meltdown of all we know).

    The various projections basewd current VI, with Labour scraping a majority with barely 30% of the vote surely is proof that FPTP is passed it’s sell by date.

  19. All,
    I looked through the old opinium whose tables were just linked. Looks to me it has too many remain tories and leave labour in the sample. They seem to have got the proportion of people voting in the referendum spot on at 48/52, but too many of them are in the wrong party. The sample is likely therefore biased when it comes to giving the views of lab or con party members as a block, but it probably isnt representative of the nation either. I think I made this same comment about earlier polling by them.

    Ditto, we know 48/52 is no longer valid a a normalising factor because of dieoff of old leavers. This will underestimate remain by 1-2%.

    That table makes predictions for the locals.
    Although I havnt seen any figures for actual party vote share in the locals, the prediction looks way too low for libs, and too high for lab. Since these were the actual replies of the sample but we now know how they really voted, we can apply a correction to the predicted share in a general election, in line with the real locals result. Not easy to be precise, but we can reasonably infer the results were too high for lab and con and too low for others.

  20. ProfHoward,
    ” He should have taken up Gordon Browns offer of PR without a referendum.”

    I think he was angling to replace conservatives as one of the big two. Wanted to seem more right wing than labour, but failed to create a distinct lib view different to the con one, so pointless voting for them. Blew it, but there looks to be a small window of opportunity to do so now.

    Richard,
    “Looks like Boris will be the next Tory leader.”

    Only if voters/ members decide. MPs will not want him, so will not permit an election where he might win.

  21. CMJ
    Yes, you are talking about Dewsbury East. Not living in Dewsbury i am only peripherally aware of the backing Lukic was getting. It is the one place where i would probably have voted Labour, and i note it was the one place in Kirklees where Labour did not lose votes to Greens and Lib Dems compared to last year.

  22. I had an interesting conversation yesterday….

    I met a senior partner I know from a major London firm (heart of the establishment, I know) yesterday and we were talking about the rather abrupt switch by May and some of the cabinet away from ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ and ‘no deal is still an option’.

    He told me – actually stated as a fact – that this stemmed directly from Hammond and the Cabinet Office arranging for one of the UK’s top constitutional lawyers to visit a Cabinet meeting and advise ministers of the legal implications of a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

    Amongst these was that the relevant ministers would be PERSONALLY liable and could be sued for the detrimental outcomes of a ‘no deal’ Brexit to the extent to which those detrimental outcomes were:
    – predictable in advance, and
    – avoidable, and
    – within their departmental competence.

    They were also advised that a number of major corporation and charities have already asked about legal recourse in the event of ‘no deal’ Brexit, and were aware that ministers would have personal liability.

    Essentially, given the advice that they had received on the consequences of ‘no deal’ Brexit, if they pushed through, or even allowed, a ‘no deal’ Brexit to happen, most of the Cabinet will be tied up in lawsuit in weeks and bankrupt in a couple of years.

    The only way the UK can ‘no deal’ Brexit without ministers taking a financial meltdown is if the EU kick us out; it’s likely the EU know this, hence the arguments going on between Tusk and Macron about extensions,

    Not sure if it is true, but it fits the observed facts pretty well…

  23. Adding to BFR’s post, Boris Johnson could already be in prison by the time the Conservative leader election comes round for similar reasons of personal liability, this time for the campaign he had a leading role in.

  24. @Danny

    “Only if voters/ members decide. MPs will not want him, so will not permit an election where he might win.”

    If they want to stop him in the imminent Leadership election, they’ll use their “WhatsApp” group. Simple.

  25. No tabs yet for new Opinium or ComRes but plenty additional info in likes of Observer, ES, etc.

    ES have more on Opinium:

    “63% of Leavers say they will vote for the Brexit Party in the European elections, the most popular party among Remainers (still Labour) only has 31% versus 22% for the Lib Dems and 14% for the Greens”

    Good to see they focus on the x-breaks to see the “flow” of voters

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-party-doubles-lead-over-labour-in-eu-elections-poll-a4140021.html

    I’ll be keen to compare LAB “flows” to previous polls. Until now LAB were doing a decent job in keeping both sides (for reasons I’ve tried to explain and justify on UKPR).

    I still very much doubt LAB will take the kind of hit that CON have taken but it does appear I might have over-estimated LAB “tribal” loyalty. Makes it even more a case of…

    “All to play for”

  26. Quote from Opinium’s head of political polling; “Brexit voters have deserted the Tories to such an extent that the Conservatives actually have a higher share of the European vote among Remainers (12 percent) than among Leavers (11 percent).”

    Maybe Danny’s “thesis” is coming true.

  27. @ MATT126 – Thanks for the link. Just as a comparison Electoral Calculus have the following, if you use those latest GB wide ComRes numbers (changes versus your numbers so we can see the difference between the models)

    Lab 316 (-14)
    Con 179 (+67)
    Lib Dem 28 (-51)

    SNP 55 (+2)
    BXP 49 (-2)
    PC 4 (uc)
    Green 1 (-1)

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

    Electoral Calculus UNS for above which is clearly NOT going to be appropriate – I am not saying it is. However it is interesting to see the difference between the two sets of numbers.

    As shown in bold above UNS does not pick up the same LDEM gains from CON. It also shows LAB gaining less seats from CON.

    The model you show is IMHO likely to be the closer of the two but overstates LDEM gains. BXP clearly drain most VI from CON which hits them in two-ways:

    1/ In the CON “Heartlands” it splits the vote and lowers the hurdle for LDEM to take more seats – roughly 30 seats IMHO, not 50+

    2/ In the LAB “Heartlands” then the lack of a presence from LDEM means LAB have less to lose to Remain parties than CON have to lose to BXP (ie LAB can keep most of the LAB-CON marginals) – roughly 15 seats

    Regional data would be better so hopefully once we get the tabs then CATMANJEFF can give us an update (or one of us can open up that section in Electoral Calculus)

    Even URS (Regional) will miss some of the internal region issues (eg many regions have city-rural, coast-inland, rich-poor, young-old “seats”).

    Full YG MRP model would be great of course – perhaps the well funded PV campaign could pay YG to run one?

    However, since it will almost certainly show LAB as biggest party, by far, then I’m not sure it will help the PV campaign (why fund something that is against your goals)

    PS SNP will be very happy with the rise of BXP and return of LDEM as it hits the main parties in E+W and helps them in Scotland. They will almost certainly be kingmaker in next GE and can do unto Corbyn as Foster-Dodds hath doneth to May.

  28. @ CMJ – “Labour scraping a majority with barely 30% of the vote surely is proof that FPTP is passed it’s sell by date”

    However, if we have a LAB govt (possibly with SNP “blessing” of some form) then do you expect LAB (and SNP) to want to change a system that gives them power? McDonnell wants 3 terms and will not want to share power with LDEM or others (the SNP “solution” seems fairly obvious)

    Anyway, hopefully we’ll get a YG poll as well. Keen to see what seat prediction numbers you get from regional splits.

    Polling and seat predictions clearly going to have huge MoE at the moment but I’m keen to see how bad the damage is for CON – where and who they are losing seats to.

    If they are looking at losing almost as many to LDEM as BXP they might miss the underlying reason for why that is happening – especially as the losses to LDEM will be in/closer to SW1.

    However, Brandon Lewis (CON Chairman, MP for Great Yarmouth) will be aware he is GONE at next GE unless they tackle the threat from Farage)

    Boris fans will want to see what is happening in his seat. LDEM were wiped out there so unless the ABC vote unite against him he could keep his seat on 30% with others all on 29.9% or less. My guess is they’d parachute him into Beaconsfield or similar just to be safe though.

  29. TW
    ‘I might have over-estimated LAB “tribal” loyalty’
    In Scotland, tribal loyalty (for SLAB) was very strong. It enabled them to send a huge body of MPs to Westminster for a very long time – even though most of them were cannon-fodder for politics Westminster style.
    Then came Indyref2014. The constitutional question split SLAB as Scottish politics became more important. There can be few collapses more dramatic than 2010-2015: from 41 MPs to 1.
    Tribalism, in its 2017 guise, even led to Kezia Dugdale asking some SLAB voters to vote SCON to keep out SNP. To some extent, it worked. But it was not tribalism has we knew it …

  30. @TW

    I haven’t run my model for ages, so it needs work. The addition of the Brexit Party and Change UK really messes it up, so it needs fixing.

    Sadly, I don’t expect Labour or the Conservatives to move beyond FPTP, as it would threaten their duopoly. After the Euros, they may be clinging on with their finger nails.

  31. TW,

    I agree that History shows that Labour only ever propose PR when they want support from other parties, and whenever they get power via FPTP they quickly ditch it.

    I think the SNP have a more principled stance on PR, backed up by the fact that they do pretty well under it in Holyrood. Most important, the Scots rather like the fact that their votes actually count for something at both Holrood and local level. This seems to be the case pretty much everywhere where PR has replaced FPTP, but I am sure you will be able to dig out the exception that proves the rule in your usual way!

  32. A month and a half ago, Opinium and ComRes had the Conservatives on 35 and 33. Now it’s 22 and 19.

    There’s a striking collapse in their polling after March 29th when we were originally supposed to leave the EU. I think people expected May to resign if that didn’t happen.

  33. @ANDREW111

    As a supporter of PR – it sort of works here in Wales too at the Senedd – I do hope that SNP would insist on electoral reform as part of any grand coalition.

  34. @ CMJ – “The addition of the Brexit Party and Change UK really messes it up, so it needs fixing.”

    Second that!!

    Probably more interesting to discuss the “how to” aspects rather than the numbers.

    Clearly MRP is the way to go but for folks without access to the raw data we need to find something.

    How I’m currently doing it:

    1/ BXP: Start at 2015 with BXP replacing UKIP (UKIP are now effectively BNP so I’ve dumped them in “others”). Using 2017 start point misses all the seats UKIP didn’t contest, etc.

    I’m not quite sure how Electoral Calculus are doing it – plan to do some “reverse engineering” on Monday. I’ll try to (legally) “hack” the flavible info MATT posted as well as they come up with very different numbers (as shown in earlier post)

    2/ ChUK?? for now I’m considering them as The Independent Group (ie 11 independent MPs and not a full party capable of contesting other seats). Unless they dramatically improve in VI terms then I’m ChuCKing them in with “others” for all bar the 11 seats they currently hold (I have them set up in “by-election” expanded analysis as out of columns in the main spreadsheet!).

    Everyone must surely see ChUK have messed up and should fold into LDEM (or Greens) but that would require massive slice of humble pie and I just don’t see Leslie, Umunna, Soubs + co. having the stomach for that.

    I’d love to see other models so I can see where mine differs. The “differences” saved my butt in GE’17 when YG’s model so clearly showed the “Uni Seats” (youthquake) and lack of CON penetration in former UKIP territory. I added an “age” component to my model and that saved my bacon (and bank balance)

    However, one thing that should be obvious from any seat model is that Corbyn (and SNP) are benefitting from the current situation. If LAB’s primary mission is to win the next GE then keep doing what they’re doing (ie kick the can with May)

    CON are in a death spiral of their own making. BXP are on the cusp of the “tipping point” but would take another 5%+ in the polls (some of which needs to come from LAB) before they started to do more harm than good to LAB. If LAB need LDEM as well as SNP then that starts to get pretty messy and into the kind of “messy” coalitions you used to see in Italy (and now across much of Europe)

    Anyway, the point is:

    LAB (and SNP) want Farage to keep doing what he is doing

    They just have to think it, not say it out loud!

  35. @Edge of Reason

    Re: ”we borrowed a lot of money when we had a higher income and then our income fell rather drastically?”

    Whether we really did borrow a great deal when we had a higher income before the Crunch is another question. Our borrowing was low by historical standards, and in a mature economy, running a deficit is one of the ways you get growth, since in a mature economy, all the low hanging fruit has already been picked – we’ve already built most of the roads and power stations and colleges we need, so growth becomes harder to come by, and the stimulus provided by running a deficit tends to pay for itself and leave us better off.

    Another reason it’s normal for developed economies to run a deficit, is that if you instead run a surplus, that surplus has to come from somewhere, and unless there’s an external influx of money, that surplus has to come from the private sector, forcing the private sector into deficit and choking off investment and growth. You might run a surplus if the economy is overheating, but ordinarily it’s not a great idea. Which is why it’s rare to run a surplus, even in good times.

    A perhaps more salient question, is whether we could have got more value from the deficit, and for example built up a sovereign wealth fund as a cushion against things like the Crunch, as some countries do. But given our politics, it might just get raided by the next party in power.

  36. [email protected]: As a supporter of PR – it sort of works here in Wales too at the Senedd – I do hope that SNP would insist on electoral reform as part of any grand coalition.

    I rather think that things here in Scotland have moved beyond that. I doubt that the SNP would join a coalition of any sort, not least because I doubt that the faithful would wear it. I think I am part of a relatively moderate SNP centre here, and I would be unlikely to be the least convinced even after a lot of convincing.

    I would also not be supportive of a DUP style C&S and would expect a government to continue on measure by measure SNP support if the Westminster numbers brought about the need.

    The real sticking point is that the price of SNP support has to be that the powers for a Section 30 order are transferred to Holyrood. Which means that whoever had a coalition deal with the SNP would also know up front that Scotland and its MP’s could be gone without much notice.

  37. @Bigfatron

    The comment about legal action is very interesting, but I’m doubtful it’s realistic. It seems to me more the sort of argument a lawyer would try to scare someone off with rather than try to succeed with in court (after all, the best lawyers win without ever needing to go to court!).

    Ministers make decisions which are detrimental to sections of the population all the time, whether it be through raising taxes or introducing regulations. For example if I run a business making diesel engines then it’s clearly going to be seriously harmed by government efforts aiming to eliminate them in favour of electric. That harm is predictable (I am clearly going to sell fewer diesel engines if diesel vehicles are banned), avoidable (it would not happen if the government did not ban diesel vehicles), and within the competence of the Minister for Transport. Yet in practice, we do not see ministers constantly tied up in litigation over the decisions they make.

    It seems to me that the only way this argument could possibly work is if a no deal can clearly be construed as some sort of wilful negligence, but even then I don’t think there are any precedents on this front. If it were really possible, wouldn’t we have seen a push by activists to sue every time a minister brought in a very controversial policy, e.g. the Tories’ universal credit or NHS reforms?

  38. New thread

  39. TIPPING POINT

    Just for “fun” – and shock value.

    Redo Electoral Calculus (E+W) with following % (changes from latest ComRes)

    CON 16 (-3)
    LAB 22 (-5)
    LDEM 16 (+2)
    Green 6 (+1)
    ChUK 8 (+1)
    BXP 24 (+5)
    UKIP 2 (-1)

    and you’ll get seats (E+W only) – shown in “Brexit” order:

    BXP (Arch-Leave): 289

    LAB (LoC-BrINO): 214
    CON (RoC-BrINO): 57

    LDEM (C-Remain): 37
    ChUK (C-Remian): 0
    Green (Remain+): 1
    PC (Remain+NAT): 5

    Total (E+W): 573, majority at 287

    BXP have a 2 seat majority in E+W

    If you add in Scotland+NI (SNP at 56 seats, BXP zero, NI as current) then majority threshold moves up to 322

    BXP+CON = 289 + 57 = 346 (ie with CON C+S then BXP have a majority, without DUP!)

    Anyone think the % numbers I’ve shown are impossible?
    I’m not fully endorsing Electoral Calculus numbers at this point but they seem to capture the “tipping point” very well (and fairly close to my numbers so easy for folks to check for themselves)

    Farage as PM on 24% of the vote!!!!!!

    How might this actually happen (ie plausible scenario time)

    1/ May and Corbyn agree a “bad deal” (CU) and put it to a ref (or just keep kicking the can and we get to below via a different route)

    2/ The Spartans (28 Arch-Leave in CON) and DUP object and HoC maths means no WAB passes and no new ref happens.

    3/ Corbyn fancies his chances in a GE and Spartans+DUP accept, kicking May out in VoNC2

    4/ Spartans defect to BXP (this might come earlier)

    5/ We have a GE with every party expect BXP and UKIP backing BrINO or Remain (but subject to a 2nd ref)

    6/ UKIP provide “compromise effect” cover for BXP and are unable to fund a campaign or post many candidates (ie help BXP indirectly)

    7/ Seeing the “tipping point” BXP get more defections from CON (next tier of ERG is 20+, likes of Baker, etc), more big money backers (xCON donors) and possibly even reach out to some LAB MPs, VI and Unions (not that they’ll necessarily need it – just poach some LoC policies)

    8/ We then have a GE with outcome as shown.

    Not saying that WILL happen but it is a plausible scenario.

    Don’t go all George Clooney and Trump will never happen on me!!!

    You wanna see that and consider the QT issue:
    “George Clooney “Their Will Never Be A President Donald Trump”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBlt15IcNYk

    As I’ve mentioned many times – look at SNP in GE’15 to see what happens under FPTP when you split the vote.

    Shocked? – you darn well should be!!!

    May is destroying her party. I’d previously mused about the “deep under cover Marxist” theory but perhaps she is a Faragista (or just totally and utterly incompetent)

  40. In the scenario of BP and Farage being at 25%-30% in General Election campaign it would help Labour in as much as they could use the prospect of Farage being PM to drive Green/ LibDem in back to Labour in their marginals. Lib Dem would also see the same affect from Labour switchers in South West

  41. Some feedback from the doorstep, here in SW Surrey. A high %age of those I’ve spoken to, say that they still have not decided – ie, between the remain parties, and are waiting to see which has the best chance.

    Bear in mind that the headline polls, as published, reallocate the “don’t know’s”, usually proportionately. But if, instead of breaking in proportion to the rest of the population, instead they come down disproportionately in favour of the one which appears to have the most support, then that will produce a different result.

    At present (based on current polls), it seems that the leading unequivocally remain party is LD. Thus, it also seems that there headline share of VI could well increase still further, over the next 10 days.

  42. Some feedback from the doorstep, here in SW Surrey. A high %age of those I’ve spoken to, say that they still have not decided – ie, between the remain parties, and are waiting to see which has the best chance.

    Bear in mind that the headline polls, as published, reallocate the “don’t know’s”, usually proportionately. But if, instead of breaking in proportion to the rest of the population, instead they come down disproportionately in favour of the one which appears to have the most support, then that will produce a different result.

    At present (based on current polls), it seems that the leading unequivocally remain party is LD. Thus, it also seems that there headline share of VI could well increase still further, over the next 10 days.

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