This morning’s Times has a new YouGov poll with topline figures of CON 28%(-4), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 11%(-1), BREXIT 8%(+3), UKIP 6%(-1), GRN 5%(+1), Change 3% (new). Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday and changes are since the start of April. This is the first standard YouGov poll that’s included Change UK – now they are in the process of registering as a political party I expect we’ll start to see them included in most polls.

The Conservative score of 28% is the first time YouGov have shown them dropping below 30% since 2013. While one can never be certain about what has caused changes in voting intention, it is hard to avoid the obvious conclusion that they are shedding support to more unambiguously pro-Brexit parties like UKIP and the Brexit party.

As ever, one should be cautious about reading too much into any single poll, but this is pretty much in line with other recent polling. A BMG poll last week put Labour 2 points ahead and the Conservatives down at 29%, a Survation poll this week (unusually of England & Wales only) produced a four point Labour lead. Kantar’s latest poll produced a three point Labour lead (and a startling 9 point drop in Tory support, though I suspect that was at least partially a reversion to the mean after an usually high Tory lead in their previous poll). Across the board Conservative support seems to be falling away.

The YouGov poll also included voting intention for the European elections. Initial headline figures there are CON 16%, LAB 24%, LDEM 8%, BREXIT 15%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8%, Change 7%.

I should add some caveats here. It is, obviously, very early – the European elections have only just been announced and people are unlikely to have put much if any thought towards who they will support. This early measure however suggests that the Conservatives will, as widely predicted, suffer badly. As yet they are narrowly in second place, but I would by no means assume that will hold (not least, the Brexit party will still be largely unknown and many respondents will be unaware that they are now the party of Nigel Farage, rather than UKIP, and I’d expect them to gain support as they gain publicity. Equally, it remains to be seen what impact there is on Change UK support once they officially launch as a party.

Full tabs for both questions are here.


1,689 Responses to “YouGov voting intention for Westminster & the European elections”

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  1. Richard

    “The Tories have managed to lose both their Brexiteers and their Remainers. ”

    ‘To lose one parent, Mr Worthing, may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness.’ (Oscar Wilde)

  2. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/27/public-thinks-eu-referendum-was-a-bad-idea-says-poll

    This poll seems important and is the first [I think] to cross the threshold that Alec and I both though might have been crossed a lot earlier.

    Anyone attempting to take us out of the EU with this background of opinion will be very ill advised. If nothing else most people just seem tired of the whole, daft affair.

  3. Forgot to mention earlier. The EU polling cards came through the door today. Anyone else? Are we early or late to the polling card party?

  4. As defence has come up, this from The New York Times!

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/27/world/europe/austerity-britain-military.html

    Peter.

  5. Statgeek

    Got ours a couple of days ago.

    Now. Should I vote UKIP, ChUK, or LD to guarantee that my vote will have no point at all?

  6. One of the things I adore about my better half is that as much as my politics fixation is abused, they still get why you guys are important.

    Strongest argument they advance actually is that people’s voting choice in a local election should be limited to the folk who made the effort to at least contact them…

  7. Jones in Bangor,

    “What if Wales votes for independence? Are you assuming London will just impose this on Wales?”

    Two points.

    First, I choose Milford Haven because it’s been suggested before, there are even some welsh politicians who say they would welcome the jobs.

    Second, there can be no imposition. If wales becomes independent then the same thing happens, the Uk has to move Trident to maintain it’s credibility.

    I am not sure where on the South Coast they could put it, maybe Falmouth, but after that the only place I know that has the depth might be Tilbury.

    Hardly matters really because it wouldn’t be Scotland or Wales problem.

    Peter.

  8. Peter

    They could always spend 10 years and oodles of cash putting the silos into the Rock of Gibraltar or Tristan da Cunha. That would demonstrate England’s “global power” (till they’re chucked out of there too).

    Best bet is that they would give up the whole silly scheme, and blame those devious Scots for the loss of the last remnants of Empire.

  9. EoR
    “Strongest argument they advance actually is that people’s voting choice in a local election should be limited to the folk who made the effort to at least contact them…”

    In my area we have the three traditional English parties and the Black Country party, which is just a few local folk wanting to help their fellow citizens. They have no funding or numbers to speak of, and I doubt that I’ll get a leaflet from them, but they’ll get my vote.

  10. Oldnat,

    “They could always spend 10 years and oodles of cash putting the silos into the Rock of Gibraltar or Tristan da Cunha.”

    As you well know part of it’s effectiveness is being able to hide and move, so a fixed site doesn’t work….

    “Best bet is that they would give up the whole silly scheme”

    Best option probably, but not best bet.

    Daft as many might find it, even with a smaller economy and population putting greater pressure on the defence budget, the UK will probably still stick with Trident even if it has to find extra billions for a new base!

    Peter.

  11. @PeterCairns

    Maybe they could move it to somewhere where it poses no great risk to UK citizens, has already prepared harbours, and keep old adversaries perpetually annoyed.

    Gibraltar or The Falklands.

    I suggest South Georgia. It’s remote enough (1,000 miles from the Falklands) that UK Gov could declare it a no-go area to anyone else.

    :D

  12. Statgeek,

    “I suggest South Georgia. It’s remote enough (1,000 miles from the Falklands) that UK Gov could declare it a no-go area to anyone else.”

    But unfortunate to far away for the missiles to reach N Korea, Iran or Russia. Or maybe that’s a good thing!

    Peter.

  13. JiB

    “@ PeterCairns

    “Milford Haven” “full control”

    What if Wales votes for independence? Are you assuming London will just impose this on Wales?”

    Well, it is Saturday night (and my long comment on the Spanish elections have gone to the mystery of the internet).

    “A breeze so soft, does sweetly waft
    Where Milford Haven lies,
    With wailing woes of doomed widows
    And mournful maidens’ cries.

    “Maiden, don’t bear a slave! Mother,
    Your babe must not be nursed!” …
    A royal nod. He reached the stake
    Together with the first.

    But boldly and without a call
    A third one takes the floor;
    Without salute he strikes the lute,
    His song begins to soar:

    “Our brave were killed, just as you willed,
    Or languish in our gaols:
    To hail your name or sing your fame
    You find no bard in Wales!

    “He may gone,’ but his songs live on –
    The toast is `King beware!’
    You bear the curse – and even worse –
    Of Welsh bards everywhere.”

  14. That’ll teach me to take 10 mins to post. Anyway, I thought of more good ideas. :D

    The Royal Marine contingent would have serious Arctic warfare training conditions. They would love South Georgia.

    Future South Atlantic naval threats would be nullified in 2-3 days, rather than 2-3 weeks.

    Nuclear weapons’ scientists would have to get used to roughing it from time to time, and would soon decide to move towards other sciences. Supplies would go direct from US sources, rather than across many UK roads etc.

    It’s a winner!

  15. @PeterCairns

    “But unfortunate to far away for the missiles to reach N Korea, Iran or Russia.”

    They’re submarine-launched. Ironically, said opponents would have to focus on South Georgia as well as the UK.

  16. Not quite enough EU polls yet but there seems to be an interesting divide developing largely between Yougov and everyone else. This appears to come down to a lower Labour vote in Yougov and higher for the 3 pure remain national parties.

    You gov has:
    Lab figures of 24/22/22
    CHUK/Lib Dem/Green 23/25/27

    As compared to other polling companies:
    Lab 27-38 (mostly around late 20’s)
    CHUK/Lib Dem/Green 16-23 (mostly around 16 but maybe an average of 18)

    So Yougov seems to have around 7 off the Lab vote and 7 on the pure remain parties as compared to other polling companies.

    This doesn’t seem that different to Westminster voting intention where Yougov are distinctly unlaboury at the moment.

    If the differences continue then we might be in a situation where we can judge whether Yougov have been right or wrong and arguably extrapolate this to their Westminster polling.

    It’s also a critical difference because looking at those two latest non Yougov polls it is very hard to see where the MEP seats for those three pure remain parties are coming from, whereas with Yougov they should be on for a few at least.

  17. Statgeek,

    Not sure the waters deep enough, isn’t that where all the icebergs end up!

    Peter.

  18. This adds a little to discussion about violence in the Creggan part of Stroke city.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/everybody-knew-there-was-going-to-be-bother-in-the-north-1.3872648

    “Many young people in the Creggan reasonably believe that, for all the talk of a new generation’s new attitudes and the promise of “moving on” to a brighter future, their own situation is not getting better but, if anything, getting worse.

    More than half (54 per cent) of the population of the electoral area which includes the Creggan have low or no qualifications. There are people with degrees on Sainsbury’s checkout. What chance a start with no A-levels?

    Welfare reforms brought in by the Conservative government and passed on by Stormont have pushed many young people out of the benefits system entirely. They find themselves entitled to nothing at all unless, bizarrely, they can show that they have been “actively seeking work” for 35 hours a week. Some simply stop registering.

    The state agencies have lost track of 40 per cent of those leaving the register. Literally, a lost generation.

    The whoosh of yearning which greeted the words of the presiding priest at Lyra McKee’s funeral on Wednesday was heartfelt. But it’s doubtful whether any of it was heard by youngsters lurking in the shadows, looking for aggro.

    In the wake of McKee’s death, there may well be more support for the PSNI in traditionally nationalist areas. Saoradh and the New IRA may be on the brink of disintegration. But the conditions which have cast thousands of young people beyond the reach of respectable society haven’t gone away.”

  19. It seems possible, perhaps, that the prospects of the Conservative party are best met by a hard Brexit and proportional representation in HoC.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/the-tories-are-stuck-in-the-middle-with-may-heres-what-they-should-do-next/

  20. SLab wants mention of a second EU referendum in campaign leaflets.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17602941.scottish-labour-mp-corbyn-brexit-leaflet-is-bulls/

    “SCOTTISH Labour’s European election campaign is in meltdown after a majority of the party’s MPs north of the border blasted a draft leaflet that failed to mention a second Brexit referendum.

    Leaked WhatsApp messages show Paul Sweeney describing the leaflet as “bull****”, while colleagues Ged Killen and Martin Whitfield both blasted it as a “disaster”.

    Whitfield added that “we need a rethink or Labour will be dead in Scotland”, while Killen claimed that the “party is in crisis in Scotland”.

    In the same exchange, Edinburgh South MP Ian Murray said he was getting dozens of emails from constituents saying they are no longer voting Labour.”

  21. @Sam

    I’ve just had a look at that piece in the Spectator and it does rather force you to swallow a whole load of rather biased assumptions before breakfast. They’re best case scenario assumptions for the Tories too, made by a former adviser to Ruth Davidson and the Scottish Tories. I’m not saying that there might not be some interesting arguments contained therein, but, as the author admits, none of it is based on any polling evidence or data. I suspect the author is adding two and two together and having to make five in order to arrive at Tory election winning scenarios. The jump from four to five, I think, is mainly wishful thinking.

    One thought I’ve had looking at the recent polls is whether or not we should revise our thoughts on what the bottom line is now for the Tories in terms of minimum core vote. I thought, like most, it was about 30%. This seemed to be their floor in GEs, even in the worst of all political circumstances for them. Labour’s seemed about 28%, slightly smaller. Now I’m not so sure. If so many Tory voters are prepared to decamp elsewhere on the single issue of Brexit, I’m starting to think that the core Tory vote is now probably about 20-25%.

    And maybe shrinking too. In a relegation battle type GE, which the next one is likely to be, Labour’s rump now looks significantly bigger than the Tories. Plates could be shifting.

  22. Meanwhile, the Conservative party has decided not to put out any leaflets for the EP elections. The surmise from Conservative Woman is that there may be a funding shortage.

    The talks between Con and Lab seem near to the point of breakdown.

    https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-toppling-of-theresa-day-24/

  23. @Sam

    That article you’ve just linked to is one that I would have been very unlikely to have read had you not done so. Conservative Woman isn’t high on my reading list.

    Apart from revealing the obvious anger towards May from the Tory grassroots, and the outright despair about the party generally, I have to say that I found it neither very interesting nor enlightening. Sorry about that.

    That said, it did introduce a new word to the English language; “denialism.” I remember a Brazilian footballer called Denilson, but denialism is a new one on me, I have to say!

    By the way, your “news” that the Brexit talks between Con and Lab are near the point of breakdown amused me. You now have permission to knock me down with a feather.

    :-)

  24. @Sam

    The instability of the Government referred to in that article must cause concern about the proposed talks for power sharing. Whilst there is, one hopes, cross (GB) party consensus on holding the talks, the fact that Karen Bradley (as I understand it) is the proposed chair (ignoring the propriety of her holding such a position whilst the DUP supports the Conservatives)* must be a cause for concern on that stability question alone.

    *sorry for all the parenthesised caveats

  25. “Interesting remarks in El País from Pierre Moscovici, the EU commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs:

    That is, I think, a good summary of some of what is inspirational in the EU’s mission, and worth defending.”
    @somerjohn April 27th, 2019 at 3:17 pm

    Indeed, wasn’t there polling that showed leave voters correlated strongly with support for capital punishment?

  26. How much do people reckon the following:
    – Votes for either the Brexit party or UKIP are roughly equivalent to “no deal” votes
    – Votes for either Conservatives or Labour are roughly equivalent to “do a deal” votes
    – Votes for either CHUK, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, or PC are roughly equivalent to “remain” votes.

    Obviously, there’s more to it than that. Some people who want brexit might still vote Green if they’re very concermed about the environment, or SNP if they want Scottish Independence; some people who want Remain might still vote Labour to try to keep either the Brexit party or the Conservatives out; and then there’s the quality or lack thereof in the lists of candidates for each party. But roughly true, all the same?

  27. CROSSBAT

    Yes, there are a lot of rather big “ifs” about that article. A hard Brexit, even a “no deal” Brexit might be acceptable to Con Leavers some of whom are off to support Farage. These folk might well return to the party under a Brexiteer when a GE comes along – unless Farage shows signs of a big breakthrough in advance of the GE.

    I have no idea of how significant an impact Brexit will have on the economy, some areas will do much worse than others and the effects will be varied geographically.

    I am like Manuel – I know nothing.

  28. Good morning all from a warm and cloudy Winchester.

    SAM

    “Whitfield added that “we need a rethink or Labour will be dead in Scotland”, while Killen claimed that the “party is in crisis in Scotland”.

    “In the same exchange, Edinburgh South MP Ian Murray said he was getting dozens of emails from constituents saying they are no longer voting Labour.”
    ___________________

    Whitfield is stating the obvious and is behind the times. The Scottish bit of Labour is already dead. Sure they picked up a few seats in the last election taking them up to 7 but that’s a far cry from the 45 plus seats they were almost always guaranteed north of the border and on today’s polling they look like going back down to Panda territory.

    The Scottish bit of Labour are better known as the Red Tories. They danced and cheered when Tory MP’s ousted SNP MP’s. They pulled out candidates to allow the Tories a free run at the SNP and went into bed with the Tories on Aberdeen City council despite the SNP being by far the largest party on the council.

    The Scottish bit of Labour are atrocious and extremely negative. They accused the SNP of starting a war of attrition against them a number of years ago when the SNP booted out Maggie Megaphone diplomacy Curran during a by-election. What!! The SNP shouldn’t stand against Labour in by-elections.

    Unless you have lived in Scotland then you have no idea how bad that lot are up in Scotland.

    The best thing ol Corby can do is cut ties with the hideous little wart that is Scottish Labour….Yuck!!

  29. @Sam – “SLab wants mention of a second EU referendum in campaign leaflets…..”

    I think @Allan Christie has a strong point, in that Slab really do seem to be completely off the boil as far as the Scottish electorate are concerned.

    I’m no expert in Scottish Labour politics, but my feeling has long been that Labour really needs to wake up to reality and reconstruct their internal organisation across the UK to reflect the realities of four nations within a union.

    Given the situation in Scotland, both political and economic, it is idiotic to maintain a cross UK party structure, where London decides on policy and election leaflets for Scotland are not drafted in Scotland.

    My view is that years ago, Labour should have formally split into English, Welsh and Scottish Labour, with England having no policy say over the other two. They would each campaign as their own parties, returning a Labour caucus to Westminster, where they would elect a parliamentary leader between themselves.

  30. @Paddy

    I think Labour probably don’t fit that categorisation particularly well – they have far more support from Remain 2016 than Leave 2016 voters in the polling cross-breaks, for example. A lot of people will likely be voting for them (and the Conservatives and SNP, for that matter) on the basis of general policy agreement.

    More true for the minor and single-purpose parties, yes.

  31. @Al Urqa

    Good to see that my post about Moscovici’s remarks didn’t go entirely unappreciated. Thanks!

    It does look as if very few people on this side of the Channel ‘get’ the EU as a defence of enlightenment values, and I think that’s because it is hardly ever discussed in those terms. Or perhaps, as you imply, it’s just that an awful lot of Brits don’t subscribe to those values. Either way, it’s quite depressing.

  32. @Crossbat and @Sam – I find Spectator article to be a classic example of everything that is wrong with mainstream politics at present, and as clear an example that the author has failed to understand what is happening in politics around the world as it could be possible to see.

    On one level it’s just barking mad. He claims that there is a 55/45 advantage for the centre right in an Australian style Conservative/Liberal coalition against Labour, citing the 55/45 Scottish referendum result as proof of this. ‘WTF’ would be a suitable response. Perhaps he failed to realise that Labour was the leading anti independence group in Scotland at that time, but whatever. As @Crossbatt says, the analysis is deeply flawed.

    However, my main critique is that the author is searching for a demographic to chase after for sufficient votes for a majority. This is the stale and pointless route that has left mainstream politics floundering in the face of new and dynamic movements who want to strip away the slimey nonsense and talk about what political parties actually believe in.

    Indeed, if you want a classic example of what is wrong with politics these days, this article provides it. Does the author ever say what the Conservative Party should believe in? Not in this article. Indeed, even using the example of the Cameroonian style party betrays the failings. What did Cameron actually believe in? He was just a philosophically empty vote chaser. like this author.

    The lesson parties need to learn is that they need to sort out first what they believe in, and then chase the voters who agree with them. The article is the wrong way round entirely.

  33. CROSSBAT

    I find little bits of interest in lots of stuff. It is the intensity of feeling from the blog and the determination to topple May that I find interesting. It is a single subject blog.

    Almost all on this board did not, I think, give much weight to anything useful coming out of the Con – Lab talks. If Con Woman is right the talks end formally this week. Then what? We have done the indicative votes – are we to re-visit them?

  34. Al Urqa

    “Indeed, wasn’t there polling that showed leave voters correlated strongly with support for capital punishment?”

    There was indeed.

    According to this, Capital Punishment led the way in things which Leavers thought ‘should be brought back’, ahead of Blue Passports, Imperial measures, corporal punishment in schools, and old-fashioned incandescent lightbulbs.

    Only 9% wanted to bring back pre-decimal currency, though.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/leave-voters-support-reintroduction-of-death-penalty-caning-and-traditional-incandescent-light-bulbs/

  35. WB61

    I think Arlene Foster is, like May, in office but not in power. That has shifted to Dodds.

    Bradley will chair the talks but both the UK and Irish governments will have realised there is a need for significant joint input.

    There could be a background to the talks that has effect. The RHI report will probably find bad practice across Stormont government – a failure to take minutes as a means of avoiding accountability, for example. The use of SPADS, their influence and accountability. Foster will come under pressure to resign.

    The trial of soldier F may be in the background. Other possible trials of UK soldiers are being considered.

    There is much whataboutery to deal with. Wales and Scotland have their own language legislation introduced – including road signage. It has not proved possible to do this in NI – yet. That will be one topic, abortion rights and gay marriages also. Red lines seem to have softened on gay marriage.

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/04/27/so-27-months-after-stormont-was-shut-down-the-irish-and-the-british-have-finally-taken-a-hand/

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/04/27/can-northern-ireland-change/

  36. Allan Christie / Alec

    I think SLab is moribund, not yet deid. A recent Survation poll puts it ahead of SCon. That said, it has a leader who, repeatedly at FM’s questions, asks questions about matters that are reserved.

  37. @paddy

    i would say that a big chunk of remain supporting voters are still voting labour – partly because they agree with them on many other issues – and partly because they wont touch lib dems or CHUK with a barge pole. Green will take some labour remain votes – but not anything like the extent that farage is taking votes from the tories.
    Be interesting to see how many votes labour is losing to farage compared to what it might be losing to the 3 remain parties.

  38. ALEC

    Agreed 100% re the Spectator article.

    I do suggest, though, that Napoleon’s maxim as recorded by Archibald Alison in his 1837 history should be applied, though:

    “In that case,” said Napoleon, “let us wait twenty minutes; when the enemy is making a false movement we must take good care not to interrupt him.”

    If nothing else, the Con blog which SAM linked to suggests that their rank and file are doing just that.

  39. Sam
    I certainly wouldn’t have found that conservative woman article otherwise either, there was nothing new in it for me, but without investigating the site further I assume it’s written by Tories and commented on by Tories and under bridge dwellers so was surprised by the civil tone of both the article and the comments, which took me by surprise. I doubt I’ll go there again without prompting, but it’s quite nice to know that there are corners of the political and Brexit internet where tea and cake is the norm.

    Paddy

    I think your analysis of the VI split is probably close but not quite there. I would vote Green if there was any possibility of getting an MEP elected on the figures where I live, but it would be a wasted vote. Consequently I’ll be voting Labour because they tick the ABT box, aren’t the libdems who I blame as much as Cameron for this shambles, while the Tiggers have shown their colours by announcing their intention to prop up the government because they know, rather than fear, they will lose their seats. Could anything announce to the world that they are indeed the collection of political chancers in it purely for self advancement many of us thought they were all along than this. They are going to be slaughtered and none will deserve it more. I can’t remember ever enjoying a more inept birth and gestation of a party than this, and every time they pop their heads up it gets worse. Until Blair pops out again to share his experience strength and hope again Farage couldn’t have a more effective advance guard.

  40. Reggieside
    Your post appeared in my feed after I submitted mine, made more succinctly, I agree, obviously

  41. There was a time when the nice man with the red or blue rosette would talk on the TV, or come to your door and tell you all the bad things the other parties have done, or plan to do, and many voters would believe it, and that was the Labour or Tory campaign wrapped up.

    As long as a third of voters believed it, they had a rump of VI in the bag, and then they could focus on the marginals. Secure a third each, and scrap for the final third. Throw the money gained from those people that believed all the patter, at those that actually ask awkward questions.

    In modern times, when UK Labour or Tories make a statement, Scottish Labour or Tories have to check and double check all past, present and future thoughts so that said statement will not bite them on the behind.

    Some have claimed that the SNP created a split in Scottish, if not British politics. The split was always there, but older campaigns prevented it from showing. All the SNP did was force Labour to actually try hard, and they got found out after a fashion. The good old days are over. Two-party politics is over.

    Labour are so far behind the curve on this, it’s laughable. It’s 9 years since the coalition. It’s 4 years since they lost, because they refused to talk to the SNP (or fell into the ‘trap’ of London’s right wing media that they shouldn’t). It’s two years since the DUP propped up the Tory minority.

    Short of a major polling error fiasco, we face another coalition or minority government in a future election, and again the big two are refusing to reach out to the moderates. Dare I say it? Popcorn! :D

  42. @Peter Cairms

    “First, I choose Milford Haven because it’s been suggested before, there are even some welsh politicians who say they would welcome the jobs.

    Second, there can be no imposition. If wales becomes independent then the same thing happens, the Uk has to move Trident to maintain it’s credibility.

    I am not sure where on the South Coast they could put it, maybe Falmouth, but after that the only place I know that has the depth might be Tilbury.

    Hardly matters really because it wouldn’t be Scotland or Wales problem.”

    The current First Minister is not pro-nuclear in any way shape or form. Wales needs an issue to coalesce around and trying to locate disgusting WMDs in Wales would light the blue touch paper I can assure you! Even if the two local Pembs Tory incumbents think jobs trump moral values of a nation.

  43. Below are a few polls that haven’t been posted on here;

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    13h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 47% (-)
    No: 53% (-)

    via
    @Panelbase
    , 23 – 24 Apr
    Chgs. w/ Dec 2018

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    13h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 47% (-)
    No: 53% (-)

    via
    @Panelbase
    , 23 – 24 Apr
    Chgs. w/ Dec 2018

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    2h
    European Parliament voting intention:

    BREX: 28% (+5)
    LAB: 22% (-)
    CON: 13% (-4)
    CHUK: 10% (+2)
    GRN: 10% (-)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP 5% (-1)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 23 – 26 Apr

    L==ds have just allowed the Villa to walk an equaliser into their goal straight from a kick-off after they had just scored themselves. Intriguing!

  44. @reggieside

    According to the Opinium tables – and usual caveats about subsample accuracy apply, of the 2017 GE vote, for the EU elections (of those likely to vote in the EU elections):
    – Labour keeps 56%
    – Brexit + UKIP get 10% (almost all Brexit)
    – Green + LD + CHUK get 19%
    – Don’t know get 13%

    Viewed the other way in terms of attracting votes:
    – Brexit get almost all their votes from GE Conservatives, with most of the rest (under 20% of their total) from GE Labour
    – CHUK get most from Labour in absolute numbers, but in percentage terms pick up much more from the Lib Dems (so the Lib Dems are more threatened by them, for now)

    Labour and Greens are doing the best at retaining their 2017 voters overall, of the GB-wide parties with around 60% retention (SNP and Plaid are doing considerably better at retaining their 2017 voters in their own nations, both above 90% though they are very small subsamples)

  45. Sorry, doubled up on one and missed one:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    5h
    Scottish Westminster voting intention:

    SNP: 38% (+1)
    CON: 22% (-5)
    LAB: 21% (-1)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    BREX: 5% (+5)
    CHUK: 3% (+3)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    via
    @Panelbase
    , 18 – 24 Apr
    Chgs. w/ 06 Mar

  46. @Bantams
    The important thing about Leeds v Villa (and main news of the day) is that the Blades have won promotion!

  47. It’s good to see that the SNP are at least trying to get their ducks in a row for a possible Indyref. I always felt that last time it just felt like they hadn’t thought through some fairly major issues and their opposition exploited that.

    Vis a vis the nuclear situation I wondered how the RAF would get on. It would seem a bit incongruous kicking out a nuclear armed navy and then leasing airbases to the same county’s airborne younger brother. Indeed with the F35 and the new carriers I believe that pilots are, to some extent, interchangeable. Would Scotland have a defence force of it’s own and what sort of level of capability would it have? Would it cost more per head because of lack of critical mass? If the RAF had to move interceptors south, how safe would Brits overall feel, knowing that radar and aircraft were 15 or more further away from defending their northern coastline? Maybe the two carriers won’t be travelling far in future but will form a floating airbase just north of Shetland.
    It would make sense for both sides to negotiate an integrated defence capability but how that would play to independent minded Scots, along with the nuclear issue I can’t see.

  48. Statgeek
    “…and again the big two are refusing to reach out to the moderates…”

    And they are somehow managing not to reach out to 17.4 million Leave voters at the same time. (I’m assuming you don’t count Leavers as moderates, but please correct me if I’m wrong).

  49. So another Yougov EU poll that shows the Lab vote well below BXP while the other polling companies show Lab and BXP neck and neck. And on the other side of the coin showing that some of the three pure national remain parties could be on course for a few MEPs while the other polling companies figures give them virtually zero chance.

    This is a big difference both in the figures and in the outcome.

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