There are two polls in this morning’s papers – Survation in the Mail and YouGov in the Times.

Survation have topline figures of CON 35%(-5), LAB 39%(+3), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was on Friday, and changes are from mkid-February.
YouGov have topline figures of CON 35%(-5), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 12%(+1), UKIP 6%(+3). Fieldwork was Thursday to Friday, and changes are from the start of March.

The overall leads are different, but that’s to be expected (Survation tend to produce figures that are better for Labour than most pollsters, YouGov tend to produce figures that are better for the Conservatives). The more interesting thing is what they have in common – both are showing a significant drop in Conservative support. As ever, it is worth waiting for other polls to show a similar trend before putting too much weight on it, but on first impressions it looks as though the ongoing chaos over Brexit may be starting to eat into Tory support.


3,209 Responses to “Survation and YouGov both show drop in Tory support”

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  1. @COLIN

    I have consistently said that no one on the UK Government had a clue about the issues pertaining to the EU. I pointed to the fact of the leaked dinner where it was clear that both May and Davis has a completely warped perspective of what they were going to obtain from the EU.

    Basically they believed their own Kool aid. On top of that the problem has always been that she tried to dupe her own side and not engage with the rest of parliament because she wanted to keep her party together

    I have said countless times given what she had and what she wanted I could see her playing the situation no other way. My point has been she played politics because she thought she had some winning formula because of the right wing of her party. She found that she could not keep all the leave promises. She found that the EU was much more united than even I thought it would be.

    Her movement from Lancaster House to Chequers was her downfall. I would not have started at Lancaster House. it defined what brexit was and that as I keep saying was her biggest mistake

    Had she done a Corbyn and said I see my position as PM to get the best deal for Jobs and the economy etc then I suspect she would have had to deal with the ERG earlier but her problem was that she avoided dealing with them and allowed them to set the agenda in the House

    I felt sorry for her because if I was her I would have said to the Labour here is the withdrawal agreement it means NI being in the EU essentially we need to make this a thing and so that early she did not like you I believe she holds Corbyn in contempt and thus the problem she has is now needing his help he response is to say [email protected]#k off

    Now if I was him I would argue on behalf of SNP and all the other parties in NI that both NI and Scotland asked to remain so we need to find an approach that allows them to do so that would have been mischievous but as a policy it meets with the devolution. How we handle the Scots /English border I have no clue but it does make the issue of regulations interesting

    But in truth I digress. What is true is that Lancaster House defined brexit and every Tory cheered including yourself It is waht prompted the point about policy and politics between yourself and myself last summer.

    In the end I still think we leave with no deal. I don’t think May is to blame alone I suspect our political system is broken when you have this level of fractionality

    I am not sure that the EU referendum at a time when everyone was pi55ed off with austerity would have been a good thing.

    I agree that the ERG have the Tory party by the balls. But the only people you can blame for that is well the Tory party hanging it’s balls out there to be kicked

  2. * I think the achievable options are: no deal, revoke, WA with confirmatory referendum, though the last still may not get past HoC, so may not be an option.

    It would if she first categorically ruled out revoke so HoC is forced to choose between no deal and WA+confirmation. Given confirmation got 280 votes tonight – more than MV3 at 277 – she could justify it.

    Its that or destroy the Tory party either by voters at a GE or within the parliamentary party by siding either with a CU or no-deal.

    Seems a no brainer to me but May has form for getting the key decisions wrong.

  3. @Colin

    “And you shoot all Corbyn’s foxes.”

    I wonder sometimes if you really appreciate how laughable some of your posts are. One minute we get all this high moral ground baloney about putting the national interest above party interest and how Corbyn, quite disgracefully is refusing to do so, and you then recommend a course of action for the PM that is couched almost exclusively in terms of party political advantage. Wrong foot Corbyn, heap blame on the ERG if it all goes wrong, become a hero…

    As I say, risible and shameless in equal measure. My party above all else is your perpetual stance yet you have the temerity to castigate others for doing the same.

  4. Al Urqa

    Of course, Migration Watch is boll0x, and is not unique to any polity. It (and any other potential rallying points for authoritarian politicians to rally around) has to be carefully watched, and constantly opposed everywhere and constantly.

    Umberto Eco reduces the qualities of what he calls “Ur-Fasc!ism, or Eternal Fasc!sm” down to 14 “typical” features. “These features,” writes the novelist and semiotician, “cannot be organized into a system; many of them contradict each other, and are also typical of other kinds of despotism or fanaticism. But it is enough that one of them be present to allow fasc!sm to coagulate around it.”
    His list isn’t prescriptive, but are worth noting in today’s febrile politics.

    http://www.openculture.com/2016/11/umberto-eco-makes-a-list-of-the-14-common-features-of-fascism.html

    The cult of tradition.
    The rejection of modernism
    The cult of action for action’s sake
    Disagreement is tr3ason
    Fear of difference
    Appeal to social frustration
    The obsession with a plot
    The enemy is both strong and weak.
    Pacifism is trafficking with the enemy
    Contempt for the weak
    Everybody is educated to become a hero
    Machismo and weaponry
    Selective populism
    Ur-Fascism speaks Newspeak

    A disturbing number of these can easily be discerned in the Brexit debate.

  5. @TREVOR WARNE

    where to begin FFS

    DUP got 2 more seats on 36% of the the vote. they ended up with 55% of the seats thanks to our FPTP system

    If you look at Lucid polls: 36% of unionists believe that no deal increases the chances of a united Ireland. 41% think it make no difference this is a huge change compared with the view of the GFA. In the end the DUP are unionists and anti SF so anything that pi55e5 off SF even if it pi55e5 off everyone else is good. Brexit was one of those things

    Belatedly they have understood that harder the brexit the more the support for a border polls becomes. being in the EU was a massive buffer in that it guaranteed the freest of movement without any apportioning of it being Irish or British. It was seemless which is why the majority of NI voted in favour

    No deal only suits the rest of the UK it get rid of something that many english consider a pain in the rear and gives the same the option of the type of deal you want. The alliance is one of convenience. You even said so yourself regarding smudging the red lines (although I can never be sure which TREVOR I am writing to and which TREVOR even responds)

    All I am saying is that they are not into smudging the red lines and if there was they would rather stay.

    Now That is not a remainer theory that is there own words

  6. I see Boles CM2 motion was defeated by these from the opposition benches voting along with 241 Tories/DUP/Independents(?) –

    25 Labour,
    11 Tig,
    4 LibDem
    and (god knows why) Caroline Lucas.

  7. “Anyone else see that the government has told LA’s to prepare for EP elections in May?”
    @Alec April 1st, 2019 at 8:24 pm

    This was discussed on Broadcasting House on R4 last yesterday (just!). The Returning Officers had been told by the printers that they needed to know by tomorrow (2nd) whether they had to print polling cards.

  8. @OLDNAT

    It seems clear that an insufficiency of MPs

    At least we’ve resolved that nagging collective noun question, even if nothing else was sorted tonight!

  9. @PTRP – re: Lancaster House. I agree. I also think that her chirping out ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ has made it sound like she thinks that no deal is an ok sort of deal and that a lot of people believe that. IMO it has also framed no deal in an everyday term where, for instance, someone offers me £1500 for a £2000 car and so i decide to do no deal, rather than being in a situation where you lose a lot of your deals if you don’t accept the deal. I think it was Ed Vaizey today who was saying that he doesn’t understand how the brexit offered in the referendum (staying part of the free trade area, brexiters saying that we would get a great deal, you can still see some of this on the literature on the VoteLeave website) has become the brexit of today (no deal).

  10. “I have said countless times given what she had and what she wanted I could see her playing the situation no other way.”
    @passtherockplease April 1st, 2019 at 11:34 pm

    In fairness to May she delayed triggering A50 as long as she could. She was under pressure from the start to trigger it, but managed to push it out to the end of 2017Q1 — which was the latest she dared go after saying she would ‘trigger it in the new year.’

    Lest we forget she has had to walk the tightrope from the very start, and has been unable to generate room for manoeuvre, given that while she is up on that rope there have always been spears pointing at her from either side.

    We can only hope we are at the endgame.

  11. “The SNP voted for that (and some LDs?).”
    @oldnat April 1st, 2019 at 11:01 pm

    You mean there are enough LDs to be able to describe a subset as ‘some’?

    :-)

  12. @ALEC (8.32pm)

    I can’t see any logical outcome for this other than another public vote.

    I personally thought this was the only viable path from before the first vote, and while I didn’t expect the path to another vote to be simple, I hadn’t thought it would be quite this farcical.

    @ALEC (11.04pm)

    Still a long way to go here, but it remains as opaque as ever.

    I guess 2 1/2 hours is a long time in politics these days ;-)

  13. I don’t live on here, as some seem to do, but here is a response to some of the posts that caught my eye today.

    BigFatRon
    “There is no upside form here – this is the inevitable consequence of promising the people something that was always undeliverable and then failing to deliver it.”

    So Brexit is undeliverable? If that is the case then we are already slaves of a superstate and no longer a nation at all.
    —————————————
    Trevor Warne
    “It turns out lots of MPs can count.”

    I’m surprised. They obviously can’t count up to 17.4 million! perhaps they’re still stuck on tens and units, as it was called when I was at school. It’s probably called something else now, as so many things are.
    ———————–
    Alec
    “I can’t see any logical outcome for this other than another public vote.”

    Why are you afraid of calling it a second referendum? And I would suggest that the arguments about what the question should be will go on for years. This process in itself will infuriate people on both sides of the debate.

    “…what we see now is the hard Brexit option now being exclusively owned by the Tory right.”

    So if it happens, the Tories will walk the next GE because the Remain votes will be split between Labour, SNP, Liberal, Green and Old Uncle Tom Cobley and all.

    “…as it would be against the expressed will of Parliament.”

    And what exactly is the expressed will of Parliament? The only thing I can remember getting a majority was the Brady amendment which I think (could be wrong, so many different plans) was to give us the right to unilaterally get out of the backstop, which the EU would probably have refused anyway. If I’m wrong on the detail, or if something else got a majority I’m happy to be corrected.
    ————————————-
    Danny
    “All the indications are that if N. ireland is forced to choose, it will choose the south, and thats the end of the union. if ireland gos, then Scotland will be asking why it cannot do the same.”

    I would be interested in a poll to see how many English (84% of the UK population) cared.
    ———————————–
    Oldnat
    “I also was surprised by Lab whipping for a motion that involved a softer version of Brexit than just CU membership.”

    I wasn’t at all surprised. They are clearly just playing stupid games.
    ——————————–
    ADW
    “Why cant we have Remain vs No Deal.”

    Because Remain has already been ruled out in the last referendum. It would have to be between May’s deal and No Deal.”
    ———————-
    Oldnat
    “At this stage, any proposal that does not have a plan for no further extension being granted, stems from cloud cuckoo land.”

    Now that is something that I can agree with, apart from the current legal position to leave with the so-called No Deal next week. Incidentally, arrangements have already been made to keep planes flying to and from the EU and various other things, if that should happen (which I doubt).

  14. @PETE B

    Nobody cared that is why the DUP are sh1tting bricks. Although TREVOR thinks they are true believers

    If you think that leavers and greate betrayal Unionist would be up in arms about it

    As you say 84% of the population treats the other 16 like sh1t etends to work out well

  15. @PETE B

    It is a second referendum only we have negotiated and now have something rather than pie in the sky to compare it with

    I still think we may leave without a deal but that was not what Leave promised would happen and as May herself when confronted with the what that would mean she pointedly retorted that leavers voted for pain

    As I said we if we have a red hot poker up our collective rear we would only have ourselves to blame

  16. @PeteB

    “I would be interested in a poll to see how many English (84% of the UK population) cared.”

    Poll was already done on this, last Summer.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/nations-overboard/

    “If part of the price of Brexit was Scotland leaving the UK, do you think that would be a price worth paying?”

    Yes – 43%
    No – 35%
    DK – 22%”

    “Lead us Scotland. Don’t go.” etc…

  17. @PTRP

    @THE OTHER HOWARD

    If you think people like those you mention in the Sunday Telegraph are far right then you clearly have a problem of understanding. They are clearly to the right of politics but not as far to the right as Corbyn is to the left IMO.

    OK so this is interesting: If you take Janet Daley who is an equivalent of her on the left……

    Or take Dominic Raab who is his equivalent?
    Or even JRM?
    I am curious, indeed fascinated by peoples views

    Great questions there. For me I’d probably say someone like Polly Toynbee is equivalent of Janet Daley, Jacob Rees-Mogg I’d say maybe John McDonnell. Raab is trickier, because that “less compromising than the leadership” perspective doesn’t really seem to exist in Labour at the moment. As someone different from the leadership in a way that seems popular with grassroots, maybe Barry Gardiner?

  18. Thanks ON for the link to openculture.com — never come across that before.

  19. MBRUNO

    the HoC cannot pass a motion of confidence on an alternative government unless there is an alternative government in place. That would require that Theresa May resign after losing a vote of confidence and advise HM The Queen to appoint a new PM who could then seek a vote of confidence from the House within 14 days. Since that is not going to happen, the most likely outcome of a successful motion of no confidence would be a general election rather than a remainer PM automatically in office.

    I don’t think it’s a clear-cut as that. The idea of a departing PM recommending their successor only really applies when it’s a transition of power within a Party. After an election it’s usually pretty obvious who should be PM – I don’t think any recommendation is needed. The only time I can think of where there was a problem was February 1974, where the collapse of the attempted deal between Heath and Thorpe:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26381917

    meant it became clear Wilson was the only possibility, though I doubt Heath recommended him except formally. But in this case the collapse will have already happened after a VoNC so it will be awkward having a PM ‘squatting’ and refusing to move. Remember the abuse that Brown got in 2010 and in that case he was acting perfectly correctly (and I believe at the insistence of the Palace) until the Con-Lib Dem agreement was finalised.

    There’s no real precedent since 2011 and the FTPA of course and few from history of a VoNC not being immediately followed by an election being called, and so making appointing a new PM not really relevant. The only two that the recent Research Briefing suggests:

    http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02873/SN02873.pdf

    are June 1895 and January 1924, both times when the opposition took over. Because a VoNC is in the Government, not the PM, putting up another Conservative if May lost one would be unprecedented and leaving her in position so she blocked anyone else from having a go, even for the 14 days, would be dodgy – especially if there was any attempt to do anything controversial.

    Of course being May, she’d probably just keep on “Doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result” and I would be pretty sure that VoCs are exempt from the repetition rule. But stopping anyone else having a go at forming a government after she had been defeated herself would clearly cause a constitutional crisis and be very awkward for the Queen who is in the end responsible for what happens, however dictated by conventions (of which there aren’t many).

    But even if she did appoint another PM of the same or different Party, who should it be? The problem is that the Palace doesn’t really know how any confirmatory vote of confidence will go – look how bad everyone’s predictions have been recently over various EU-related stuff. Apart from the SNP, none of the Parties are coherent and they are full of factions. There are currently 22 independents, which must be a record. Putting any sort of majority together to win a VoC will be hard.

    So they’re probably terrified that they will make politician X PM only to find it all goes down in flames and then the Palace will find itself being attacked for being ‘political’ and biased. Probably by some of the same people who demanded they appoint X in the first place – plus everyone else. And to make it worse X then remains PM for months until there’s been a new election, which may be seen as giving X’s Party an advantage.

    It was suggested that Her Maj could be advised by a set of distinguished privy councillors who could recommend someone to ‘command the confidence of the House’ but there’s nothing to say that they will be any better at guessing that than anyone else. On current form I would estimate that the only people who would be worse at the job would be a group of political correspondents.

    If instead they appoint Lord Safepairofhands as an interim PM for the time of the election, what do they do about the EU? In this case doing nothing is doing something because of the UK leaving automatically without any arrangement. Equally doing anything is bound to antagonise all those who disagree – including all those who think something should have been done, just not that.

    I have long suspected they will try to get the Commons to vote for an immediate election (with the two-thirds) if a VoNC goes through. Then the PM is much more bound by convention and the palace doen’t need to interfere. But, unless the EU puts everything on hold until after the election

  20. Despite the anti-Corby vital from Colin et al it’s clear that his Labour party whipped to support genuine alternatives and it’s the Tories and the Government refusing to budge from their petty positions (and the one issue tiggers and DUP, of course) causing the deadlock.

    Wonder how that will play with the country if we do see a GE?

  21. OLDNAT
    Thanks, yes, I came to that conclusion myself. Fortunately, I am not into internet slang so whatever unpleasantness the initials stand for they just pass me by. As you say easy to ignore.

    Laszlo
    “Rees-Mogg’s Twitter and more importantly his further explanation (that he thought were excuses) on LBC shows that he is far-right, and happy to make alliances with the fascists.”

    You may think so, I don’t agree with you. He rather unwisely perhaps, posted some comments from an AfD spokesman on the way the EU had handled Brexit. He was quite clear that he was not supporting the AfD as can clearly explained. End of story.

    EDGE OF REASON
    Your 1.44 am.
    It might be a good question, but I find it almost impossible to make the comparisons. Looking at yours, I might agree that Daley is the opposite of Toynbee. JRM is nowhere like as extreme as McDonnell, indeed I don’t think JRM extreme at all, and I cannot place Raab either.

  22. Clark would have won with the SNP on board, but the SNP want free movement.

    So Clark + Devolved Immigration gets us across the line!

    Peter.

  23. I read in the paper this morning that none of the motions were passed again. No surprise at all to me which is why I didn’t bother to stay up for the results.
    So, we move steadily towards an exit on the 12th April. Hopefully democracy will win out and we will leave on that date. I note that Alec has changed his mind yet again, as pointed out by Edge of reason. Alec even accepts that no deal is a real possibility. How interesting.
    Enjoy another day watching Parliament. I have much better things to do today, including the opera this evening.

  24. CB11

    @”I wonder sometimes if you really appreciate how laughable some of your posts are”

    Not really-I get most of my laughs here from yours.

  25. Interesting manufacturing PMI’s from Markit on UK manufacturing and Eurozone manufacturing.

    “The latest IHS MARKIT / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI is at a 13-month high spurred by Brexit-related stockpiling. Anna Tobin reports
    Safeguarding against Brexir-related shortfalls led to record increases of purchased and finished product stocks being reported in the IHS MARKIT / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI survey for March. The headline seasonally adjusted PMI rose to a 13-month high of 55.1 in March, up from 52.1 in February. The PMI has stayed above 50 for 32 consecutive months now.
    New business improved from domestic and export markets, which led to a growth in jobs recorded. The rate of increase in purchased stocks was at a survey record high for the third consecutive month too and stock of finished goods was also up.
    There was also a rise in average purchase prices in March, a result of raw material shortages, inflationary pressures, Brexit and higher energy costs.
    “Manufacturers reported a surge of business activity in March as companies stepped-up their preparations for potential Brexit-related disruptions,” said Rob Dobson, director at IHS Markit. “Output, employment and new orders all rose at increased rates as manufacturers and their clients raced to build safety stocks. Stocking of finished goods and input inventories surged to new survey-record highs.”

    And Eurozone:
    “IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® – final data Greatest contraction of manufacturing sector for nearly six years in March Key findings: ? Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 47.5 in March (Flash: 47.6, February Final: 49.3) ? Biggest monthly decline in new orders since late2012 ? Confidence hits lowest level in over six years Data collected March 12-22 IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing operating conditions in the eurozone deteriorated in March to the greatest degree for nearly six years, according to the latest PMI® data from IHS Markit. After accounting for seasonal factors, the IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted a level of 47.5, down from 49.3 in February and its lowest level since April 2013. March marked a second successive month that the PMI has posted below the 50.0 no-change mark.”

    I leave you all to draw your own conclusions. I’ve drawn mine.

  26. Interesting manufacturing PMI’s from Markit on UK manufacturing and Eurozone manufacturing.

    “The latest IHS MARKIT / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI is at a 13-month high spurred by Brexit-related stockpiling. Anna Tobin reports
    Safeguarding against Brexir-related shortfalls led to record increases of purchased and finished product stocks being reported in the IHS MARKIT / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI survey for March. The headline seasonally adjusted PMI rose to a 13-month high of 55.1 in March, up from 52.1 in February. The PMI has stayed above 50 for 32 consecutive months now.
    New business improved from domestic and export markets, which led to a growth in jobs recorded. The rate of increase in purchased stocks was at a survey record high for the third consecutive month too and stock of finished goods was also up.
    There was also a rise in average purchase prices in March, a result of raw material shortages, inflationary pressures, Brexit and higher energy costs.
    “Manufacturers reported a surge of business activity in March as companies stepped-up their preparations for potential Brexit-related disruptions,” said Rob Dobson, director at IHS Markit. “Output, employment and new orders all rose at increased rates as manufacturers and their clients raced to build safety stocks. Stocking of finished goods and input inventories surged to new survey-record highs.”

    And Eurozone:
    “IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® – final data Greatest contraction of manufacturing sector for nearly six years in March Key findings: ? Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 47.5 in March (Flash: 47.6, February Final: 49.3) ? Biggest monthly decline in new orders since late2012 ? Confidence hits lowest level in over six years Data collected March 12-22 IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing operating conditions in the eurozone deteriorated in March to the greatest degree for nearly six years, according to the latest PMI® data from IHS Markit. After accounting for seasonal factors, the IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted a level of 47.5, down from 49.3 in February and its lowest level since April 2013. March marked a second successive month that the PMI has posted below the 50.0 no-change mark.”

    I leave you all to daw your own conclusions. I’ve drawn mine.

  27. @PeteB
    —————————————————————————-
    BigFatRon
    “There is no upside from here – this is the inevitable consequence of promising the people something that was always undeliverable and then failing to deliver it.”

    So Brexit is undeliverable? If that is the case then we are already slaves of a superstate and no longer a nation at all.
    —————————————————————————-

    I fear you have misunderstood my point…

    We can leave the EU any time we wish to, the famous ‘waterfall’ sets out the options as defined by May’s Lancaster House red lines.

    Brexit is always achievable – it’s just we can’t have anything we want.

    The deliverability problem is about leaving on the terms espoused in the referendum: ‘easiest deal ever’, ‘we hold all the cards’, ‘something like Norway’, ‘retain full access’, save £350m a week’ – the cake and unicorn deal. THAT is not possible.

    There are three fundamental reasons why we are in this mess:
    – the referendum win was a coalition between voters and leaders with fundamentally different, and often totally contradictory, views.
    – UK negotiators (exclusively Tory and mostly convinced Leavers) had a fundamental misunderstanding of the UK’s position in the world and in the EU, and of how the EU operates; this led them to make a total clusterbourach of the negotiations.
    – Tory MPs have been so focused on the aims of securing their particular brand of Brexit, placating their membership, and of retaining the unity of the Tory party, that they have given up any pretence of acting in the best interests of the country.

    With conflicting aspirations, no clear goal, no plan, no capacity to develop a plan, and no interest in what is right for the country this was always going to be a car crash.

    @ToH
    I agree with you. Having felt that May’s deal was marginally ahead in terms of likelihood a week or so ago, I am back to thinking ‘No Deal’ is the most likely outcome.

    Like WW One, we will arrive at a destination by accident, which only a few wanted at the outset but those of a jingoistic persuasion will cheer; and it will be the ordinary working people that will suffer most as a result.

    Like WW One, the aftermath will be extremely unpredictable – we have unleashed the populist genie from the bottle and it won’t go back easily.

  28. @PeterC
    Of course, devolved immigration, at a different level, would almost certainly have “got us across the line” at the February 2016 EU Council as well.

    A kind of symmetry?

  29. @ PTRP – Perhaps provide the quote from DUP that you seem to be basing your view on.

    Better yet, action from DUP MPs, in terms of voting behaviour as for politicians “words are wind” (ie can be tactical talk, hiding strategic motives)

    FFS though, which part of DUP representing Unionists (at the DUP end of the DUP-UUP scale) do you find difficult to understand. The vast majority of Unionists continue to want to Leave the EU and see absolutely no changes to the GB-NI border.

    Brexiteers in general (ERG+DUP) don’t expect RoI-EC to meaningfully harden the Ni-RoI border but that is up to RoI-EC, not UK. May chickened out from even attempting to reopen the WA to rediscuss the backstop after the “Brady” amendment passed so we don’t know if EC are bluffing or not. They can smudge the red lines between NI-RoI and RoI-EU if they want but that is outside UK’s control. The only border we have full bilateral control over if NI-GB.

    Now if you’re morphing your point by taking a different finding in the Jan’19 poll into DUP saying that:

    “Long delay with risk of Remain is better than May’s deal or any deal that keeps the backstop”

    Then yes, that is the risk that DUP are prepared to take. One that I would agree with. My only difference with DUP is which bit of the backstop I like least.

    Continue to feel free to project your opinion as that of others but trying to pretend a poll[1] that shows a minority of voters should be a parties policy is daft. Having said that though there is a lot of daftness around as TIG, LDEM seem to prefer “No Deal” to any compromise and May is TBA on whether or not she is going to sell out her voters and split her party.

    NB A united Ireland involves “process” issues beyond polling but 64% of Unionist VI (DUP+UUP) don’t expect “No Deal” to increase the risk of a united Ireland.

    Unless you have a time machine, we are where we are.

    We agree there a no “good choices” and this extends to most parties (CON, LAB, DUP for sure, less so for others and at the other end SNP are positively loving the Schadenfreude).

    I never wanted the DUP pact and would be happy with a mini smudge on the GB-NI border but sadly the HoC maths does not permit that.

    The question for DUP (and CON) is rank ordering the least bad choices and obviously the issue of “saving face” with your voters – so try looking at MP’s voting history, last night for starters!

    Also I note, like others, when your losing a discussion you bring out the “which Trevor” card. :-) :-)
    A bit like “Gammon” I enjoy the terms Trevors, Collective, whatever, else. Leavers are not sn0wflakes ;)

    FWIW It’s been a single Trevor posting for months[2] – I can mix up the banter with the serious discussions and am quite capable of using the scroll bar as well. I obviously discuss issues with others and in many areas am fortunate to have “Trevors” with much greater knowledge, experience or access than the “Trevor” that posts on UKPR.

    [1] We could do with more polling. Even Bradley worked out that behind the Unionist/Republican issue the DUP/UUP and SF/SDLP issue is where the battle for specific seats is fought in most cases with the DUP and SF both pushing out the more moderate side.

    Hence it is quite likely that amongst the vast majority of “Unionists” in Jan’19 poll that the UUP are picking up the minority shares and DUP, being the more “assertive” Unionist party are continuing to represent the vast majority of their voters.

  30. PETERW’

    “Of course, devolved immigration, at a different level, would almost certainly have “got us across the line” at the February 2016 EU Council as well.”

    What, the one where they told us just to use the existing power EU law gave us to deport any EU citizen who couldn’t prove they could support themselves after 3 months!”

    Bent Banans stuff from start to finish!

    Peter,

  31. Pastherockplease,
    “I have consistently said that no one on the UK Government had a clue about the issues pertaining to the EU.”
    Whereas I think they started very ropey, but were up to speed on the advice of civil servants before they called the 2017 election. Their strategy then was informed by a ralistic understanding of the problms they faced which had hardly had a mention in th campaign.

    ” On top of that the problem has always been that she tried to dupe her own side and not engage with the rest of parliament because she wanted to keep her party together”

    Whereas I believe she has always been acting on the instructions of her side with thir full support, and declined to engage with parliament because that would have enabled a consensus Brexit. (or revealed an ultimate refusal to carry it out by conservatives)

    “I have said countless times given what she had and what she wanted I could see her playing the situation no other way.”

    That one I agree with,but we differ in our view on what she had/wanted.

    ” She found that she could not keep all the leave promises. She found that the EU was much more united than even I thought it would be. ”

    The day after the referendum a string of leavers stood up and said what had been promised (by others!) was undeliverable. This wasnt news. The civil service has been telling politicians throughout that the EU are united. The only way MPs would not have believed this is in terms of propaganda they wished to spread.

    Since I started considering it, i have always thought the Norway situation quite stupid, The limitations of membership without the advantages of taking part in control of the EU. Yet we now see how such a situation could arise in the UK. Any deal which preserves the UK economy by staying inside essential parts of the EU automatically denies freedom of action to a Uk government. May was right in her election analysis that the only form of Brexit capable of delivering the key promises is a hard brexit/no deal. Yet the economic cost of this is enormous and the actual sovereignty gains mostly illusory since the world operates through international coalitions. But it is still the only real Brexit possible and so she offered it to voters. They turned it down.

    After that, there is no good Brexit outcome. Soft brexit is a stupid fudge which will grate on the UK far more than it does on Norway, which does not have the recent past of world domination to fantasise about and which has fed the leave campaign. It leaves the Uk with less freedom, not more. Guaranteed failure to deliver for leavers. Failure to deliver for remainers by definition. It isnt a compromise, it is a trap for both sides.

  32. Pete [email protected]: Because Remain has already been ruled out in the last referendum. It would have to be between May’s deal and No Deal.

    1 million on the March. 6 million signed the petition. Given that leave would be split between 2 options, spoiled papers stand a good chance of winning.

  33. “No Deal” – 3 dimensions to the “Managed” aspect

    1. Time

    Obviously running out. Default in now 12April. Some Brexiteers perhaps hope EC-EU27 might give us the full implementation period to Dec’20 in return for the 39bn divorce bill and want May to at least ask. Others are keen to keep Malthouse Compromise as plausible. I doubt EC-EU27 will compromise but keeping “unicorns” alive keeps “No Deal” as the default so Brexiteers are just playing the game that TIG+co want to play.

    For business time is a double edged sword. The uncertainty is “bad”. A rolling “cliff-edge” is certainly not what they want (and not what EC-EU27 want either)

    2. Mini/Side deals (even in only temporary)

    This is the “cliff-edge” issues. Both sides have done some planning and although far from perfect it is better than nothing. It will “soften” the immediate impact but polling shows vast majority expect some impact (ie it is “priced in”). Hastily arranged “No Deal deals” on Ni-RoI border are TBA and EC are not going to offer those up until we know we’re leaving with “No WA” (at least not this one)

    3. HMG, BoE and “market” response

    As we saw with Project Fear 1.0 the idea of a static response is absurd. Carney will “help”. HMG should but with the HoC maths and too many Remainers in cabinet I’m less optimistic about them. The “market” will probably help via the currency but above all businesses need clarity not further uncertainty. HMG can directly and indirectly “help” businesses (that was the message in Lancaster House Plan B)

    Combination of above

    The above do not work in isolation. The flippant “time is money” phrase works in two ways. For business the dragging out of the uncertainty is causing under investment – HMG can respond to that with “No Deal” incentives. For HMG it is more a case of “no time requires extra money” , that should be obvious but maybe not to Remainers in cabinet?

  34. Norman Smith tweeting this morning that Team Letwin have given up on indicative voting and tomorrow will see a pursuit of delaying tactics options instead.

  35. Al Urqua,
    “We can only hope we are at the endgame.”

    Come come, whatever happens now, brexit will continue for years. Genii out of bottle, two equal sides whipped up and all that.

    Pete B,
    “So Brexit is undeliverable? If that is the case then we are already slaves of a superstate and no longer a nation at all.”

    This is glass half full/ half empty issue. The world is no longer dominated by individual countries acting unilaterally. The change is especially painfull from the Uk viewpoint where in living memory the UK dominated the entire world effectively on is own. This is all gone and we are an average developed nation, nothing more.

    The way to world domination today is through international cooperation. EU membership gives the Uk more than it takes away, and that is why Brexit is undeliverable. Because in search of freedom we give up power.

    “So if it happens, the Tories will walk the next GE because the Remain votes will be split between Labour, SNP, Liberal, Green and Old Uncle Tom Cobley and all.”

    What happened at the last election was the remain vote coalesced under labour. This is likely to happen again if labour plays its remain cards correctly. If not, labour could be wholly trashed in the next election. But at the same time the conservatives will be obliged to have one vision of Brexit, or their election campaign will deteriorate into arguing amongst themselves, which will not play well. One leave vision will alienate some leavers. Given polling suggesting more people are committed to remain than to labour, it is just possible a different party could gain enough support, certainly to push labour into third, and just possibly to win.

    “I would be interested in a poll to see how many English (84% of the UK population) cared.”

    Indeed, but the question was how do the DUP maintain union, and the only way to do so is to oppose brexit. It is EU membership which has staved off reunification.

    The Other Howard,
    “Interesting manufacturing PMI’s from Markit on UK manufacturing and Eurozone manufacturing.”

    Indeed it is interesting. Companies are stockpiling goods, which means they are running up debts and losing money. It means Uk manufacturing effciency keeps falling.

  36. Peter Cairns So Clark + Devolved Immigration gets us across the line!

    The only way you could have devolved immigration is with a hard border between Scotland and rUK (to make sure the immigrants Scotland let in stayed in Scotland), along with immigration control (to make sure none get out), which would by virtue of the need to prove who you are require all scottish residents to carry recognisable ID to allow then to leave Scotland when they needed to. It would also at a stroke change the status of all people who identify as scottish living in the rest of the UK.

    In fact, on refelction it sounds like a bloody good idea. Square peg, square hole etc.

  37. @BIGFATRON

    With conflicting aspirations, no clear goal, no plan, no capacity to develop a plan, and no interest in what is right for the country this was always going to be a car crash.

    This is why I as a remainer predicted no deal. It is the logical conclusion of the above. The EU cannot help us.

    I believe that Barnier has understood it best (yes the waterfall slide was an excellent illustration of where we were)

    and this quote from him does sum up neatly our problem and our position (courtesy of the guardian live blog)

    Barnier said the crisis in the UK went beyond Brexit. He said:
    I don’t think I need to go on at great length about the nature of what is going on in the UK, the impasse or political crisis they might be experiencing.

    More deeply, it is not just about the question of Brexit. I don’t think it’s just about the question of Brexit and the agreement that’s on the table and the backstop for Ireland.

    It is more broad than that. Somewhere along the line, it is a crisis that equally could have sprung up in another country.

    In my country [France] as well, there are questions about what our relationship is to the world, what is our place in the EU, what is our economic model. These are all things coming out as a result of the British debate as well

    Simply put I have always said this is not about the EU. I suspect we would have been in the same position if we had a referendum on hanging as an example.

  38. @ Danny

    “Indeed it is interesting. Companies are stockpiling goods, which means they are running up debts and losing money. It means Uk manufacturing effciency keeps falling.”

    Wrong, most British businesses are sitting on a pile of brass waiting to invest it. They can well afford to insure against any shortfall possibilities, we’re doing the same.

  39. EU playing hard now.

    By Monday we are to notify them of our intentions so that they have two days to consider them before giving their decision on the 10th.

    If we want a longer extension, it is to include why, how long, for a reason acceptable to the EU and have an end result provably deliverable within that period.

    (As I stated yesterday – that one of the MPs told me that up to 6 of the EU27 will possibly veto, France is now talking up the opportunities a No Deal presents to both France and the UK and other EU countries are now openly saying enough is enough, this needs ending now)

  40. Raining so i looked in again.

    TO

    “1 million on the March. ”

    Two studies disagree with that as i posted a couple of days ago best estimate 200,000-400,000. A good turnout but nothing like the number suggested.

  41. An Irishman, a Scotsman and a Brexiteer were in a pub, talking about their sons.

    “My son was born on St Patrick’s Day,” commented the Irishman. “So we obviously decided to call him Patrick.”

    “That’s a real coincidence,” remarked the Scot. “My son was born on St Andrew’s Day, so obviously we decided to call him Andrew.”

    “That’s incredible, what a coincidence,” said the Brexiteer. “Exactly the same thing happened with my son Pancake.”

    Just a joke…

  42. SAM

    It describes a situation that nobody but nobody wants to return to, yet the imposition of a border seems ever more likely by the day, and all because of a one-sided clause in a treaty that is supposedly there as insurance against it. If Ireland and the EU really wanted to do everything in their power to avoid a border then they would accept that the backstop is preventing the WA from being passed and make changes to it, safe in the knowledge that they will still be in a position of strength when it comes to ensuring an invisible border in the trade negotiations. That they won’t seems telling, and demonstrates that the backstop was always more about demonstrating political clout, punishing a leaving member, and creating leverage.

    All it would take is the addition of a codicil to the effect that the UK could leave the backstop if, say, five years after transition an agreement on the future trading relationship was still yet to supercede it. That would probably be enough to get the DUP and ERG on board and pass the WA. If we aren’t close to agreeing a trade relationship by the mid-to-late 2020s then there’s something more serious going on and it would likely be unsustainable anyway.

    Still, it’s become a matter of stubborn pride for the EU to impose their penalty clause on the UK, so even if Varadkar came to them and asked for it I doubt Macron and his fellow hardliners would agree to water the provision down at all.

  43. @EDGE OF REASON

    When I look at the equivalents

    I am not sure I put Janet Daley as the Polly Toynbee
    I would suspect Polly has been a keen supporter of Blair and the Liberal Democrats in the past. Janet has been pretty much a hater of Cameron and indeed everyone bar Thatcher.

    JRM is actually very close in my view to Corbyn. In essence the other side can not understand the appeal of the person. Talk to Tories and you see their disdain for Corbyn and likewise I have not met a Labour supporter that think JRM is nuts

    Raab and McDonald are similar in terms they have radical ideas (read Britain Unchained and look at McDonald’s announcements. In the main I would say McDonald is more pragmatic of the two but they have very similar views as to the fact there needs radical change

    Janet Daely is in my opinion like Jean Pirro. I don’t see anyone on the left as prominent if only because unlike the right the left would wince at an equivalent

  44. TECHNICOLOUROCTOBER 350,000 on your march (including children) – less than attend professional soccer matches in London alone over a weekend (in fact, it’s less than the number of people that go to Tescos in London on a saturday alone), 6 million e-mail addresses signed the petition (which is an entirely different thing to 6M UK voters) – and it still staggers me how many thick people there are who think signing government e-petitions actually does anything other than help google analytics or send Caroline Lucas into rapture. E-petitions were designed solely to give halfwits the illusion of empowerment. They get dealt with late at night, by a handful of bored MPs who would rather be in the Sports Bar. Yours was dealt with exactly that way last night.

  45. @ Alec

    “I think the saddest thing about the hard Brexiters, both in and out of the Conservative Party, is their fundamental unwillingness to engage in any two way debate or exchange about ideas of democracy and legitimacy.”

    I don’t usually disagree strongly with your posts but there were a few yesterday that I thought were rather one sided re hard brexit folks being unwilling to engage and compromise and Corbyn’s attitude to all of this.

    Of course I don’t disagree with your comment above about ERG intransigence but we saw last night on a couple of the indicative votes that there could have been movement were it not for that same intransigence from pure remain.

    Common Market 2 could have got through with TIG and LD support.
    Customs Union could have got through with any of SNP, TIG or LD support.

    So maybe you should also be condemning pure remain for their intransigence? Is it somehow alright for Lib Dems to hold these fixed positions but not ERG?

    On Corbyn, of course he wants a general Election. A Brexit organised by the Tories will not be the one that is wanted by either side of the Labour Brexit vote- leave or remain- especially in view of the likelihood that stage 2 will be negotiated by a hard Brexiter. As the likelihood of a General election has diminished, Labour has actually moved forward to compromise positions and Corbyn has voted for compromises on indicative votes. It is literally impossible for him to hold all Labour MPs to the party whip.

    So I was a bit miffed with some of yours and Colin’s comments on this yesterday. A situation not wanted by Labour, not created by Labour with no ideal solutions that appeal to all Labour constituencies and yet somehow Labour are also the bad guys?

  46. Bantams

    Your 11.12

    Absolutely, some who post here have no idea about business.

  47. shev11

    Agree with you. Colin is an absolute Corbyn-hater who ignores evidence that contradicts him, and sadly Alec despite sometimes battling the urge, has some of the same tendency.

    Corbyn has been consistent and he is doing what he suggested and seeking consensus. Unlike the tiggers, for instance, who have done the wrong thing since they didn’t even exist.

  48. @GARJ, It describes a situation that nobody but nobody wants to return to, yet the imposition of a border seems ever more likely by the day, and all because of a one-sided clause in a treaty that is supposedly there as insurance against it.

    Only the EU/RoI will be placing a border on the island or Ireland in the event of No Deal. The UK government has already legislated not to no matter what in the Withdrawal Act that become law last autumn.

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