There are two polls in this morning’s papers – Survation in the Mail and YouGov in the Times.

Survation have topline figures of CON 35%(-5), LAB 39%(+3), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was on Friday, and changes are from mkid-February.
YouGov have topline figures of CON 35%(-5), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 12%(+1), UKIP 6%(+3). Fieldwork was Thursday to Friday, and changes are from the start of March.

The overall leads are different, but that’s to be expected (Survation tend to produce figures that are better for Labour than most pollsters, YouGov tend to produce figures that are better for the Conservatives). The more interesting thing is what they have in common – both are showing a significant drop in Conservative support. As ever, it is worth waiting for other polls to show a similar trend before putting too much weight on it, but on first impressions it looks as though the ongoing chaos over Brexit may be starting to eat into Tory support.


3,209 Responses to “Survation and YouGov both show drop in Tory support”

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  1. -5 in both. I’m just surprised it has taken this long.

  2. What a difference a day makes!

  3. Hopefully, the Sunday papers may have some polls. Looking at the graphs from my polling averages, Lab have been on a steep downward path since the autumn. 12-month trends for Lab and Con are both clearly downward and Lab’s has accelerated in recent months. LD have not strayed much from their slow upward trend. UKIP have an upward trend but it almost all due to the rise after Chequers. They have been on a plateau around 5-6% since.

  4. I’m sensing the tide is turning quite decisively.

    There’s a lot of sandbanks around here, and it is surprising how quickly the tide goes out on those shallow positions.

    Sensible political skippers will be heading for deeper waters!

  5. The Con movement seems reasonable in the context of a week of splits and defeats. Great confusion, which voters tend not to like.

    Plus of course, the headline is delay, which displeases many Con voters.

  6. JOE JAMES B

    Odd that you seem to have forgotten NI where the DUP seem to be essential to the Cons if quitting the EU is to happen.

  7. The question is, how will Conservative ministers, MPs and members react?

    Change their approach, or get rid of their leader?

    No bet. :D

  8. FWIW Nick Boles voted “aye” on MV1 and MV2 but did vote for the Benn amendment (and similar previous attempts to strip authority from the executive)

    Not sure if his “news” is relevant? His constituents have been out to get him for a while so his timing might just be coincidental. He doesn’t look like he is joining TIG, not yet anyway. He is not an “Arch-Remainer”.

    Having said that some Remainers are “foaming at mouth” about the opportunity of EC-EU27 insisting we have a long delay. Hence it is plausible that some MPs who previously backed May in MV1 or MV2, now vote “against” in MV3

    I’m not going to comment on the specific circumstances beyond saying we now have quite a large number of MPs who are standing on a “personal” mandate that differs (modestly and debatable in Boles case) from the manifesto under which their constituents elected them.

    Yes, they are elected as individuals but under a “party” manifesto and allegiance.

    Boles seat is a very safe CON seat (20k, 35.5% majority) and CON in the Blair years as well.

    His constituents voted 61% Leave in 2016

    Anyway, Rugby about to start – good luck to Italy, Ireland and of course England ;)

  9. We’ve reached peak clusterf**k.

  10. Alec
    “I did not and do not ever intend to draw any parallels between the ERG/DUP/Hard Brexiters and anti-muslim killers.”

    Thank you, that is all I wanted to see. If you had responded with those words in your reply to my original post then we would not have had an argument. Instead you went into a “hissy fit” of your own, to use your words.

    I don’t have a problem with you calling me a loony or lunatic or any of the other insults you spray about to posters who disagree with you, as you say I am equally guilty. The words which actually caused offence were “right brigade” which certainly to me has clear connotations of military style right wing extremists, just like the killers in New Zealand

    Anyway, happy to consider the matter closed.

  11. Survation feels a little bit like either an outlier or simply a sampling/methodology that may prove to be right or wrong.

    Must admit to a total lack of comprehension over recent polling and voting attitudes in general. I suppose this stems from a confusion over what is motivating these changes.

    One obvious change I assume is remainers drifting away from Labour. However the fact that many polls were showing Tories virtually unchanged in the low 40’s just seemed surprising in that the Tories had somehow managed to avoid antagonising both their leave and remain supporters as well as those who simply believe that the Tories run the economy better.

    Maybe as a country we have become far less engaged in politics and that all the developments (or lack of them) over the last 6 months or more simply doesn’t register with voters until they actually see the splits develop in parliament.

    Maybe the combination of potential crash out and potentially not leaving has trimmed Tory voters on both sides of the Brexit debate? Or is it simply parliamentary chaos? The random churn (ie for more than one reason) must be a lot higher than normal.

  12. Potentially helpful polls for May to get the moderate waverers in the Tory ranks over the line but they may also encourage the extremist ERG to redouble their efforts to achieve ideological Brexit purity int he belief that they are not being Brexity enough..

  13. TW

    “Anyway, Rugby about to start – good luck to Italy, Ireland and of course England ;)

    indeed! :-)

  14. @TREVOR
    “I’m not going to comment on the specific circumstances beyond saying we now have quite a large number of MPs who are standing on a “personal” mandate that differs (modestly and debatable in Boles case) from the manifesto under which their constituents elected them.”

    Poppycock and you know it is. An MP is not a robot. Their manifesto didn’t even win a majority. These things are fluid. Look at the Lib Dems in 2010, Corbyn under Blair. Etc

  15. Survation’s poll is showing a significant uptick in remain vs leave as well, they usually show closer to neck and neck.

  16. TOH

    I was certainly not addressing you. I was quoting from another’s post. It is language I dislike.

  17. So much circular irony at the moment.

    The worse the Tories poll the less chance of a GE and therefore an even lesser chance of Corbyn ever becoming PM.

    Similarly the more ERG/DUP nutters climb on board May’s*** dreadful deal the more opposing MPs will feel they should abstain or oppose.

    *** For Carfrew’s benefit that refers to the politician who is our PM – not the merry month of.

  18. A useful (if necessarily long) summary of the negotiations, contradictions and confusion leading to the tabling of MV2 by Tony Connelly of RTE.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0315/1036688-backstop-deal-cox/

  19. The interesting thing might be if the Kyle amendment finally gets a run out next week.

    With lots of groups softening, this may create an opportunity for enough MPs to decide not to block the deal, while also not completely supporting it, and allowing the public the final say.

  20. Agree that Kyle amendment is probably the last chance of 2nd referendum. If it did pass though your going to have more disruption of those opposing it when the bill goes through commons obstructing its progress. The issue for me though is how long would it take to pass and how long would A50 have to be delayed to allow this to happen. Say if A50 was delayed for 6 months you would then get the scenario of those opposing it trying to obstruct its progress until the A50 extension expired

  21. @matt126

    Kyle is a plausible way to break the immediate deadlock … best case scenario is probably 22 weeks to actually hold the referendum, including passing all the legislation, setting a date, campaigning period, etc. – but if there’s a Lords filibuster, that needs the Parliament Act to overrule, that could stretch by another year. The EU would need to be willing to grant a very substantial extension.

    I think there’s also a very strong potential that Kyle passes, if it does, *mainly* on opposition votes with a majority of Conservatives against (like the extension request did) – that would probably make it even more difficult to get the necessary legislation through because of the chance of government instability.

  22. The Kyle-Wilson amendment to attach a people’s vote to the WA would be very hard to carry out. The government will say thanks very much for getting the MV through but then do nothing to help the PV legislation. hey could vote against it later.

    Possibly the clause in the withdrawal legislation requiring the PV could end up being removed at a later date – after leaving. I don’t see any way for Kyle-Wilson to enforce their amendment.

  23. Truly magnificent performance by Wales, good in attack, great in game management and superb in defence. A grand slam win, 25-7 against Ireland. Wales were very worthy winners, who out played and out thought Ireland on the day. Great credit to the players and the Coaches. Ireland to be frank were poor and never recovered from the early Welsh try. Sexton had a poor game, not the first in this Six Nations. It looks as though Ireland peaked last year, and I do not see them as a threat at the World Cu, Wales should be..

  24. @TOH

    Yes, good win for Wales.

    Da iawn. Very impressive, especially in the forwards again.

  25. With regards to Kyle, the Germans are dropping hints that they will not be sympathetic to an A50 extension application that results in a second vote.

    The bottom line is Parliament is not the decider in such things, the EU is, and Parliament can vote for what ever it likes but it’s the EU that decides what’s on offer.

  26. Draw seems a fair result. What a match!

  27. @OLDNAT
    Draw seems a fair result. What a match!

    Agree

  28. England totally dominant in the first half but forgot to come out in the second and Scotland blew them away. Scotland truly magnificent in the second half. Sadly for Scotland, England scored a late try to equal the score at 38 points each. Frankly speaking as an Englishman, Scotland were robbed.

    England take second place in the Six Nations but Eddie Jones has some big issues going forward to the World Cup.

    I just hope the England ladies can show the men how to play, and take the grand slam. That would provide a few crumbs of comfort.

  29. As you were. Opinium lines up closer to YouGov and suggests there’s not really been much movement at all. Survation result is definitely looking like a bit of a freak. I guess we’ll have to wait and see what happens after MV3 now. Both in terms of where UK is heading and VI, though I’m starting to think that nothing will affect VI.

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-2)
    LAB: 34% (-)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 13 – 15 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 01 Mar
    42 replies 95 retweets 112 likes

  30. Apologies bt fpt:

    Trevor and others the number of potential Labour rebels willing to vote through May’s deal at this point is imo as many as 25 but when push comes to shove will be 15-20 net max.

    For this vote as not supporting May does not mean thwarting Brexit but slowing it (aiming for a better deal) the max number imo is 15 net.

    15 net might, though, be just enough to see the PM home.

    It is counter intuitive but there will be fewer Labour rebels if MV3 has no chance of passing as why risk the wrath of your CLP needlessly. There will be those that feel strongly and will do so but that might only be 3-5 more than the 7 (3 now indy/suspended) so perhaps a dozen non Tory/DUP MPs including Lloyd for MV3 rising to 18-20 if the deal can pass.

    FWIW, I think enough Ultras wont support this time and the Grieve/Lee group will be more steadfast that others have suggested meaning MV3 will fail.

    Then it depends if an amendment for HOC taking control (only lost by 4 passes) whether we ever get to MV4.

    Hitheto, If I may self-congratulate I have called every major vote right, even tight ones, but that taking control vote after MV3 failure is tough as 4 votes may not be many but without ministerial resignations to support I can’t see many votes changing sides, but only 2 needed.

    Summary MV3 fail, MV4 pass but we might not get to it.

    Just to add Kyle amendment no chance even with Lab 3-lie whip.

  31. (rugby Union) Everyone has issues for the world cup tbh. England still lack the killer instinct, and Wales cannot just get by on the bare minimum.

    Being in Japan and effectively therefore neutral ground should be very interesting.

  32. Opinium in the Observer:

    Con 38
    Lab 34
    Lib Dem 8
    UKIP 8

    No deal 43 / 2nd Referendum 43 (!!)

    May’s deal 36 vs Remain 46

  33. Independent has a writeup of the no. of Labour rebels MV3 would need to pass:
    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-mps-support-may-deal-dup-labour-a8826141.html

    Similar to analyses posted on last thread by others.

    If MV3 fails I wonder if the EU27 might try to force MV4 through by telling May at next weeks summit that the only extension they will agree to is a short one, and then only if she can push MV4 through. So if MV4 fails we leave on 29/3 with no deal. May could could this to really pile the pressure on Labour to vote for MV4 (or abstain), arguing that they really dont want to risk getting blamed for causing a no-deal exit. Of course if MV4 failed May would still have the option to rescind A50. Or, the EU27 blink and offer last minute unconditional short extension.

  34. EU can’t accept an open ended second referendum that could result in another leave vote and then the prospect of further negotiations.

    No idea what is likely now but, given that a large majority of the current parliament think May’s deal is sh1te the idea that they could be bullied into passing it without the public then having a role to play is awful.

    I’m fairly sure the EU would agree a delay to allow a referendum on that as the deal is there already and so is staying.

  35. @ALEC

    The Con movement seems reasonable in the context of a week of splits and defeats. Great confusion, which voters tend not to like.

    Plus of course, the headline is delay, which displeases many Con voters.

    When I saw the two polls, my instinct was the latter, a knee-jerk reaction to May backing away from the 217,000 times she’s insisted that 29th March is the leave date.

    That said, on an anecdotal level the end part of this week has been the first time that the farcical nature of the Brexit “debates” at Westminster has got into the vernacular at my workplace. It’s the first time in the whole process that I’ve heard people discussing what will happen next (within the parliamentary process), and making jokes about it too, people calling for “a meaningful vote” when outnumbered in meetings and someone else demanding to have a vote about voting first etc. So maybe the salience is ticking up, especially as people start to realise it’s really not just going to go away.

  36. Survation result looks like a freak – remember 1 in 20 polls will be outside 2 standard deviations. A Conservative plurality is the situation at the moment, but god knows what will happen when we get at least a temporary resolution on leaving the EU.

  37. If MV3 does not pass on Tuesday, then an A50 extension has to be requested on Tuesday night for the European Council meeting on Thursday.

    There is no time for MV4 before that, and the EC is not going to meet again before the 29th.

    So Tuesday really is decision day for short vs long extension.

  38. ‘Meaningful vote 4’? We’ve gone from ‘Brexit means Brexit’ to redefining the meaning of meaning.

  39. Hal,

    A decision of the council can be the take effect should an MV4 not pass (worded if we reach 29th March without etc etc) and the PM would hope that the decision that would take effect would sway a few more ubers and/or Labour MPs.

  40. @ JJ – You’ve had a great call so far so your comments are always much appreciated and I’ve noted your comments on where we have subtle differences of opinion. Overall though we’re pretty close on MV3 and totally agree on Kyle. Corbyn will be able to “fall back” to his CU plan or a GE as May will be sent to ask for extension – that gives cover to LAB Soft Leave MPs.

    The Nick Boles situation covers what I think you refer to by the vote that lost by 4 in your post on previous thread.

    Did you mean the Benn amendment (div #362, lost by 2) and the amendment to that amendment (div #361, lost by 3). Although they both lost they had 15-16 CON MPs who backed them offset by LAB Leave MPs whose allegiance to May will probably expire if the current WA+PD is agreed. There was a Grieve amendment back in Jan that lost by 20[1] (div #309), many of the CON names are the same but 3 are now TIG of course.

    The main point is that the numbers are getting very close to MPs stripping power from HMG. A few LAB MPs who are currently backing May will tip those numbers.

    I doubt Lidington and May’s “words” offering MPs more input is going to be enough for LAB MPs should her deal pass but this issue is also causing serious concern within CON and CCHQ (from what I hear and clearly what we’ve seen with Boles).

    If MPs wrest power from May then for a lot of CON MPs there is no longer any reason to have May as PM or limp on as a govt unable to deliver policy. If May’s deal is passed then the next stage will potentially see a puppet PM dictated to by opposition parties and 15-20 CON Remain MPs in an “unholy alliance” pursuing a CU outcome.

    At least 20 CON Leave MPs would find that unacceptable enough to hit the “nuclear option” of voting against May in a VoNC (IMHO and so I hear). They’d prefer CON-Remain MPs to take the blame but if not Plan A then Plan B.

    The “grey suits” are on stand-by. May losing executive powers would IMHO be the final straw and using ADW’s metaphor, if May doesn’t pull the trigger on herself then they’d pull the lever. With under 14days to 29Mar’19 then Grieve, Benn and co. have left it too late. My guess is Corbyn is smiling about that!

    If we end up with a snap GE then what the heck EC-EU27 agree to in terms of extension for that is TBA! EP elections? Suffice to say some folks have anticipated these issues a long time ago and hence this is quite likely why ERG are appearing to “play nice” – they have a Plan B (and C-Z if it comes to it, although after about G it gets very ugly with significant public opinion consequences)

    In terms of “less bad” then VoNC with high risk of a “sooner” GE to follow[2] is pushing the limits against having Corbyn, SNP, TIG, LDEM, etc and 15+ CON MPs pulling May’s strings and hence running Brexit whilst they watch CON’s chance of winning a “later” GE slide away (IMHO and so I hear).

    [1] I‘ve previously said that vote lost by 16, my error it was 20.

    [2] FTPA gives them 14days to win a second vote under a new leader. They might want to win and need to be seen to try to win but I don’t think they’re bothered as clearly the current tiny majority reliant on DUP is not working – they will want to (need to!) remove xCON in TIG and Arch-Remain MPs in order to have a functional govt. I’d also guess DUP realise this and hence why they are “conflicted”. What appears to be an alliance between DUP+ERG is based on current mutual interests. DUP might lose “kingmaker” status if we have a snap GE.

    MP names for div #362 here:

    https://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=2019-03-14&house=commons&number=362

  41. @Edge of Reason
    I haven’t noticed that much in others (I don’t work in a normal workplace anyway) but I’ve noticed it in myself.
    I’ve found the endless debate of loud mouths and closed ears really hard to bear – I even left the country for a bit to get away from it.
    This last week it’s felt like something’s happening and plates might be shifting so I’ve got very engaged. Trouble is, at the end of all that I still have not the faintest idea what will happen and I’m beginning to lose it again.
    I make 46/36 to translate to 56/44 without DKs
    That’s beginning to look decisive and I don’t see how any honest politician can back leave without another referendum.

  42. Jim Jam,

    I don’t see this. The European Council are only going to decide on an extension if the UK asks for it before Thursday, considering all of the reasons given.

    There’s no prospect of them deciding on a hypothetical extension just in case the UK asks for one before the 29th. That really isn’t going to happen.

  43. @ Trigguy

    “As you were. Opinium lines up closer to YouGov and suggests there’s not really been much movement at all. ”

    It’s worth looking at the dates of the fieldwork of these three most recent polls, as they have in fact been published in the reverse order to that in which they were started. Given this, and the way in which events developed last week, it makes sense to lok at them this way round.

    Opinium (11-13 March) shows Con down 2

    You Gov (12-13 March) shows Con down 5

    Survation (13 March only) shows Con down 5 (and Lab up 3)

  44. Apologies if this has already been noted, but hitherto SNP, LD, PC and Green leaders have acted largely in co-ordination, but have been frustrated by Corbyn’s failure to engage with them (and obviously Lab needs to be on board to deliver a large number of E&W votes).

    Corbyn has now finally asked for a meeting with the other leaders on Monday (which they have all accepted), so we wait to see if there can finally be some kind of co-ordinated opposition as a result of that meeting.

  45. @ BALDBLOKE – thanks for the link. It does seem plenty of folks getting to roughly the same conclusion.

    The terms of the extension are TBA but a short extension that avoids EP election issue could provide one final MV with “No WA” as the alternative (or even a hastily agreed mini WA) as the alternative (aka “A new WA” becomes THE WA).

    Either way we get until mid-May (or poss end Jun) to rapidly get some legislation in place (be that THE Current WA, A new WA or No WA)

    May’s issue for MV4 (say on 28Mar) is Remain, Corbyn’s deal and other options might still be seen as plausible by too many MPs in order to get them to back MV4.

    A short extension would just about allow time for a GE but not a new ref. EC-EU27 will h8te the uncertainty so might offer a guillotine style clause – sort it pronto or hold EP elections and stay until Dec’20.

    I’m sure our resident “expert” will comment on guessing what terms EC-EU27 might offer for extension but it is important to remember it is the EU28 who have to come to a unanimous decision and thanks to Grieve (s13 of EU (Withdrawal) Act) and Miller (parliament is sovereign) then that means HoC will have to approve whatever May brings back (or not) – TBA and “all to play for” ;)

  46. @ Trigguy

    “As you were. Opinium lines up closer to YouGov and suggests there’s not really been much movement at all. ”

    It’s worth looking at the dates of the fieldwork of these three most recent polls, as they have in fact been published in the reverse order to that in which their fieldwork was started. Given this, and the way in which events developed last week, it makes sense to present them this way round. (+Dates corrected from my last post)

    Opinium (13-15 March) shows Con down 2
    You Gov (14-15 March) shows Con down 5
    Survation (15 March only) shows Con down 5 (and Lab up 3)

  47. My fear is that the ERG and their like agree to support May’s vote, subject to her resignation more or less immediately afterwards. Boris becomes PM and sets out to negotiate a Canada style deal, at which being lazy and intolerant of detail he totally fails. So we end up with something as bad as no deal. it’s hard for me to imagine what planet is inhabited by the 15 to 25 labour MPs of which Jim Jam speaks but I take his word for it that they exist.

    In my occasional slumming away from the austere intellectual heights of UKPR I came across the following from a ‘risk analyst’. It is less favourable to May than the sketch I posted yesterday.

    It’s exactly the same as signing a contract to buy a rotten house at a fixed date, then calling in the surveyor and finding out that the house has damp, likely to subside and the roof is about to fall in. But the house has to be paid for regardless because that’s the contract and no lawyer can get Mrs May out of it. To make it worse, Mrs May also insisted on “red lines” which precluded the seller from offering any repairs to the structure. And now by voting against her own selected course of action, Mrs May is sort of saying, “That contract is pretty stupid after all”.

  48. @GUY LAMBERT

    Ta for sharing that. If increased salience is a widespread thing I do wonder how much of that is because people are alarmed that this will go on much longer than they thought, rather than primary concern being any specific outcome!

    I make 46/36 to translate to 56/44 without DKs
    That’s beginning to look decisive and I don’t see how any honest politician can back leave without another referendum.

    For me I think the problem is the arguments for and against aren’t symmetrical. I see a lot of variants on the argument that no vote is eternally binding, and if we voted to do something that we’ve since come to realise is not what we want to do, then it’s both rational and democratic to ask the question again.

    Likewise I see a lot of versions of arguing that to rerun a vote before its effect is even carried out smacks of just wanting the original answer to have been different. And that one would surely not argue that because a mid-term government or leader is significantly behind in the opinion polls, their ability to carry out their manifesto should be annulled and another election held instead.

    But I don’t think these positions contradict each other. They just seem to prioritise slightly different aspects of democratic voting as being more important.

  49. SAM

    Thanks, please accept my apologies for wrongly assuming you were talking to me. I was very cross at the time.

  50. Well it was worth waiting all day for. The England ladies reallty did show the men how to do it with an 80-0 win over Scotland. Seven tries in the first half and five in the second half including a late one with a player carded.

    A perfect grand slam, five wins every one with try bonus points so maximum points (28) including the 3 bonus points for winning all their matches.

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