There are two polls in this morning’s papers – Survation in the Mail and YouGov in the Times.

Survation have topline figures of CON 35%(-5), LAB 39%(+3), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was on Friday, and changes are from mkid-February.
YouGov have topline figures of CON 35%(-5), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 12%(+1), UKIP 6%(+3). Fieldwork was Thursday to Friday, and changes are from the start of March.

The overall leads are different, but that’s to be expected (Survation tend to produce figures that are better for Labour than most pollsters, YouGov tend to produce figures that are better for the Conservatives). The more interesting thing is what they have in common – both are showing a significant drop in Conservative support. As ever, it is worth waiting for other polls to show a similar trend before putting too much weight on it, but on first impressions it looks as though the ongoing chaos over Brexit may be starting to eat into Tory support.


3,210 Responses to “Survation and YouGov both show drop in Tory support”

1 63 64 65
  1. James E,
    ” if you believe the petition on its own, you would imagine that Essex is more pro-Remain than Northern Ireland, for example.”

    Or you might conclude that despite Essex being more leave overall, it nonetheless also has more deeply committed remainers than N. Ireland. Which isnt encouraging if you want a compromise solution.

  2. Quite the exercise in careful ambiguity from the PM.

    She could end up literally anywhere and claim it was clearly consistent with what she just said.

  3. @DANNY
    @GARJ

    If the Uk cannot pass the WA because ir refuses the backstop conditons, then the Uk is guaranteeing there will be a closed border. N. Ireland can only have an open border with the south if it has the same regime as the south. It can only have an open border with the rest of the Uk if it has the same regime as the rest of the UK.

    I believe GARJ believes there is a Jedi mind trick where you either ignore the logic or the facts of the situation or we have to accept the world is flat.

    But all the EU has to do is accept the world is flat and all will right with the world……

    ;-)

  4. Nowt to do with Brexit / polls. Just sharing some thoughts.

    Earlier, I was reading about the 442nd Infantry Regiment, which was made up of Japanese volunteers and draftees from Hawaii and US Internment camps.

    Irony of ironies. It became the most decorated unit in US history for its size and length of service (e.g. of 14,000 serving, there were 9,500 purple hearts and 21 Medals of Honour).

    They were involved in liberating prisoners at Dachau. Imagine it. Japanese in US uniforms, liberating Germans from a German camp.

    Despite all this, they were welcomed home with ‘No Japs’ signs, akin to the no Jews signs in Germany.

    Then it reminded me of something I saw earlier today when out and about. On a blackboard, outside a pub:

    “Dogs are welcomed here, providing their owners are well behaved”

    The longer I live, the less I understand human beings, but the gags seem to get better.

  5. @STATGEEK

    Well that made me laugh
    ;-)

  6. “An example of how easy it is to defraud the e-petition website.”
    @ADW April 2nd, 2019 at 4:16 pm

    It doesn’t matter now. The e-petition has already had high-profile news coverage, and so achieved its aim.

  7. New Thread

    (for any that have taken even longer than me to realise :-) )

  8. Well I think my popcorn is coming from Amsterdam. I’m sure I heard TM say she would reach out to JC. I pinched myself to make sure, then rewound it; and she said it again. And I’ve just watched Newsnight and the Brexiters have been compared to a bank heist, with the gang fighting amongst themselves and the grown ups outside playing the waiting game.

    Is this the 11th hour EU tactics everyone has said would happen? The Tory anger is now palpable. I don’t know what the Dutch are putting in my popcorn but I like it!

    I stick by my assessment this is the endgame — it will break the back of Brexit.

    Munch. Munch. Oooooooooo.

  9. Somerjohn,
    “Most leave voters don’t believe EU membership has had any benefit for Britain. ….If a hard brexit transpires, we’ll soon see the truth or otherwise of that belief.”

    Yes indeed, this is the crux of the matter as i have been arguing it. The conservative MPs act as if they believe we will indeed see that the EU provides major economic benefits to the Uk, that these will be lost, and leave voters will then experiences this. The leavers would logically either blame this on the incompetent handling of the conservative govrnment, or on the whole concept of brexit and then believe they were lied to causing them to self harm.

    Incidentally, May was quoted as saying the voters voted for pain. She seems to believe that pain will result from brexit. They voted to leave which she believes will result in pain, but polling says they did not believe in any pain to come.

  10. @EoR

    Not just me then. Reassuring to know, and apologies for not posting ‘new thread’. In my excitement, I forgot to. :D

1 63 64 65