There were two polls in the Sunday papers. ComRes had a poll conducted for BrexitExpress (a pro-Brexit pressure group) prominently but poorly reported in the Sunday Telegraph. The voting intention question included The Independent Group as an option, producing topline figures of CON 36%(-2), LAB 34%(-3), LDEM 8%(-2), TIG 8%(+8), UKIP 6%(nc). Most polling companies are not, at present, including the Independent Group in polls – something that will presumably change as they take steps towards actually forming a party and clarifying their future intentions. The tables for the poll are here.

The Sunday Telegraph headlined on a finding that 44% of people agreed with a statement that “If the EU refuses to make any more concessions, the UK should leave without a deal”, suggesting rather more support for no deal than almost all other polls. I would advise a lot of scepticism here – agree/disagree statements are a rather suboptimal approach towards asking polling questions (I’ve written about them before here) that tend to produce a bias in the direction of the statement. The problem is they give only a single side of the argument – the question only asked people if they agreed with a statement supporting leaving with no deal in those circumstances. It did not offer people alternative options like a delay, or accepting the deal, or having a referendum. One can imagine that a poll asking “In the event that the EU does not agree to further changes to the deal, what do you think should happen?” would have produced rather different answers. Indeed, later on the survey asked which outcomes people thought would be best for the UK economy and best for UK democracy, which produced rather more typical results.

Note also that the Sunday Telegraph’s claim that the poll showed an increase in support for No Deal is not accurate – the poll back in January asked a differently worded question (it was structured as support/oppose, rather than an agree/disagree statement, and was in a grid along with other options) so they are not directly comparable.

As well as the ComRes poll there was a BMG poll hidden away in the Independent. The figures were unusually reported without excluding don’t knows or won’t votes, with the Conservatives on 31%, Labour on 27% and 8% for the Liberal Democrats. According to the Independent the Conservative lead is five points once don’t knows are excluded – that implies something along the lines of Con 40%, Lab 35% and Lib Dem 10% – though the full figures are yet to appear on the BMG website.

870 Responses to “Catching up on the weekend polls”

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  1. “Al Urqa

    I was aware of that implication! :-)”
    @oldnat March 15th, 2019 at 11:47 pm

    Then your post was a good one — I cannot think of any other response.

    (Sorry, it takes an hour or two for my posts to appear. Must be a WordPress thing. I’ve given up on logging in.)

  2. Valerie,
    “On our own, the UK will just be hung out to dry.”

    You have followed pretty much the same thought process as myself. I see nothing but bad news or worse if we leave the EU. This begs the question why MPs still refuse to admit this, because leaving is so evidently against the interests of the UK.

    The answer is presumably because it isnt so self evident what the result would be, after all we have only seen the consequences of brexit becoming clear as time has gone by, and we are political obsessives.

    The government has tried to lead the public towards remain, but while professing to believe in the opposite. It isnt a brilliant way to persuade people.

  3. @R&D

    “I am curious as to why you always refer to May as “Theresa” but every other politician by their surname.
    Is there something we should know about your relationship with our splendid PM?”


    I originally wrote “May”, but changed it to Theresa because “May” can be a bit ambiguous, being as it isn’t just a name, but is a word with other meanings, as in “May be” etc.

    (This can happen with other politicians in select situations, e.g. you had to be careful using “Thatcher” when talking about roofing, and “Churchill” when talking about insurance).

  4. MV3 Maths

    Starting with MV2, May lost buy 149 so needs 75+ more votes (2xabstain =1)

    Going through the CON-DUP factions in rough order of likelihood

    CON-Leave1: 39max
    Likes of DD and even some ult4s like Dorries moved to “aye” in MV2 but looks like McVey and some others will move this time

    DUP: 11 (10+Hoey)
    TBA, they might also abstain in which case it’s 5.5

    CON-Remain: 2
    Greening and J.Johnson are not hardcore Arch-Remain so they might fold

    Subtotal for above = 50max

    Beyond that your looking at very unlikely extras

    CON-Arch Remain: 4
    Bebb, Grieve, Gyimah and P.Lee are PV, 5+ others folded in MV2 so could even reverse. They see chance of long extension and possibility to overturn Brexit.

    CON-Leave2: 20
    Likes of Bone, Francois, Whittingdale even likes of Baker (ERG whip). They were close to 49 in the original failed coup effort so to drop below 20 seems v.unlikely to me, even if they are promised with May’s resignation and a new team of negotiators for the future relationship they are tied to the backstop which they see as a trap.

    So May is probably going to need 25+ extra from LAB

    Some folks excited by the large number of “against” for the TIG-PV vote but being against a new ref is not the same as being for May (IMHO)

    In MV2 Flint was the only addition to Austin, Barron, Field and Mann but that is 5 already.

    Given the long extension threat (opportunity) then how many more LAB are likely to risk the wrath of backing May? They are not stopping Brexit if they back LAB whip they are delaying it. Delaying it long enough to get what they might consider a “Better Brexit”. They might well consider May+Robbins will be replaced by far-Right nutters for the much more important negotiations on future relationship. Bribes and false promises on rights, etc didn’t cut through in MV2 so why now?

    So IMHO I just can’t see LAB “help” getting to 25+

    Sensible Input very much appreciated

    NB I’m assuming Corbyn will propose Kyle amendment or similar but that it will lose. If anyone thinks that will pass please show me the HoC maths.

  5. @Allan C

    “Well if this wee clip is anything to go by then Thornberry gets a thumbs up fae me.
    Quite a performer our Emily :-)“


    Yes, Emily seems quite popular among some here. And Keir seems quite popular too. Not like Jezza!

  6. @Oldnat

    Apparently buying Amazon US can be an issue too for some items (second hand story with appropriate caveats – I have no further info than that). I don’t think the US has a problem with GDPR per se, but it’s not prepared to apply it in the US, which means they could face legal issues at home.

    GDPR is a pain in the proverbial for users, and it’s ironic that it’s there to protect said users. It probably goes to show just how insidious websites became over the past 20 years to users and their data. While all/many sites have GDPR options to say no, many make it a lot harder than a simple click, but it’s a simple click to accept. (wry cynical smirky emote here).

  7. @ ALEC – Folks sometimes use a partial quote to pick up a point but deleting words from a quote in order to total reverse the meaning?!?

    Then you added in “Are you going senile???” :-) :-)

    Now I’m up for banter but “Holier than thou” ALEC usually states that is childish.

    So I take it you now finally understand what I meant (A, The, No) and are too embarrassed to admit, again, that you don’t understand A50.

    It was Comic Relief last night but I’ll make a donation today given your comment got my day of with a ROFL :-) :-)

  8. @B&B

    “My baby boomer, Daily Mail reading, blue collar Tory, voted for The Referendum Party in 96, voted Leave by post a month in advance dad talked Brexit with me today.”

    I know someone almost identical in my family. Baby boomer, reads the DM, probably voted Naw ’14 / Leave ’16. Gets all news from the DM or from Beeb / QT and has a rant-a-day mindset.

    While no one wishes harm on anyone, I do take some solace from the idea that the DM probably provides a healthy living for the blood pressure monitor industry.

    I would love to put 1,000 in a room and pipe “Brexit will officially happen on ‘x’ day soon” and put another 1,000 in another room and pipe “Brexit is cancelled”, and monitor BP levels of both.

    For science, of course. :D

    (I actually imagine similar results. Said people rarely stay happy for long.)

  9. New Scottish Westminster voting intentions: @Panelbase (28 Feb – 06 Mar):

    SNP: 37% (-)
    CON: 27% (-1)
    LAB: 22% (-3)
    LDEM: 7% (-)

    Also some Holyrood and Brexit stuff.

    I won’t pick out the results of Q15 and Q16 in case folks think I’m being biased – I’ll simply suggest folks take a look for themselves. Pretty sure that is a straight tracker questions from 5Dec poll, perhaps someone could check the wording is 100% exact and show the changes.

    Survation have some Scottish Indy polling but haven’t looked at it:

  10. @JAMES E
    I was struck by the change of tone from all the leading ERG and DUP figures in the past week. The EU hasn’t altered the Backstop one iota since January, and yet we now have the likes of Mogg and Foster stating they may now vote for the deal subject to some rather vague conditions.

    Agree with that and your later posts o the subject. It seems a large number of the ERG have had their eye lids sown back on:-).
    Still not sure it will be enough but it will be very close

  11. Re Daily Mail readers:
    I don’t read the DM, but I believe the departure of Dacre has led to a change in editorial stance and opposition to hard Brexit. Perhaps that is confusing some loyal readers?

  12. The Trevors,
    “Sensible Input very much appreciated ”

    I suggest stop going on and on making wild guesses at the outcomes of votes which are wholly unknowable on the information available to us.

    The govenment has done the best it can to create the corcumstances where a choice is made to withdraw article 50 right now. Failing that, it has set up a withdrawal agreement which sets out a commitment by the UK for a close relationship to the EU, definitely including a customs union. The agreement binds the Uk to work assiduiusly towards a tight trade deal with the EU, so expect the endpoint to be pretty much EU membership trading terms.

    This is obviously an absurd endpoint considering the stated aims of the leave campaign.

    Expect the political fighting to go on for years

  13. The Trevors,
    “– I’ll simply suggest folks take a look for themselves.”

    Well ok: 64% remain, 33% leave, 3% dont know.

    The questions you highlight show a tiny majority for Scotland to go for indepenedence if the Uk leaves the EU either with deal or no deal. Tiny, but as big as the leave referendundum vote here. I wouldn say such a small margin should be enough to make such a trannsformational change, but leavers apparently do not agree so i suppose on this basis the Uk govenment will be giving Scotland independence.

    The result was 1% more for independence if the Uk takes the government deal. While 1% is not significant poll to poll, on the same set of respondents it means at least a few feel the deal is even more objectionable than no deal.

  14. Correction (addition) to 7:01am. The new wording on Q15 of panelbase Scottish poll has an additional opening part:

    They added:
    “As things stand today, the UK is set to leave
    the EU without a withdrawal deal at the end of next

    in front of the “tracking” bit:

    “Which do you believe would be better for

    They also messed with the data. Previously likely voters only. This time all respondents with DK removed.

    Still interesting IMHO but obviously folks can look for themselves. Heaven forbids that anyone should look at the CON X-Break

  15. Trevor Warne,
    “Heaven forbids that anyone should look at the CON X-Break”

    Ok, i wont. But I did see the gay crossbreak is 70% for independence. Gays are also the most pro SNP group, followed by bisexuals and heterosexuals least. Interestingly, bisexuals seem to give their strongest support for labour in the question on national elections, as did ‘other’.

    Dont often see that one asked. Results might be undermined by a sample size of 25.

  16. Colin
    No doubt you saw Alec’s post of the new Survation Poll in the DM. It looks as though the HoC chaos has swung the poll from a Tory lead to a Labour one.

    However, you will probably be pleased with the answers to other questions.
    1. May’s Deal v 2-year extension.
    May’s Deal 56 (+22)
    Two Year Delay 25 (-16)
    2. May’s Deal v Softer Brexit
    May’s Deal 51 (+21)
    Softer Brexit 31 (-14)
    3. May’s Deal v New Referendum
    May’s deal 61 (+24)
    New Referendum 27 (-17)
    4. Should cabinet Ministers who defied May over No deal have resigned
    Yes 57
    No 28
    5. Is Brexit more likely to go through in May quits afterwards.
    Yes 17
    No 11
    DK 72
    6. Should May call a GE if her deal is defeated
    Yes 25 (-18)
    No 65 (+24)
    Specific to Tory voters.
    Should MP’s back May’s
    Yes 57 (+21)
    No 26 (-13)
    May’s deal v No Deal
    May’s Deal 41 (+5)
    No Deal 40 (+5)
    I would summarise that as the voters want May’s deal agreed and don’t want a softer Brexit, new referendum of a general election. Conservative voters also support May’s deal but are equally split on may’s deal or no deal. The swings to May’s deal in all the questions is large.

    I am happy to see confirmation that voters don’t want a new referendum, or a softer Brexit. Although the question was not asked, I think it clear that they don’t want No Deal.

    Looks as though you are more in tune with the voters, whilst I am in tune with the minority Tory view.

    Not a surprise to either of us I suspect.

  17. Andrew 111

    The DM is no longer the paper it was unfortunately, your comments are correct although it has not confused this voter. Littlejohn remains a shining beacon though, at least most of the time.

  18. TOH


    Perhaps the stability of VI should not be relied on by either party at present !

    John TT

    Thanks-yes a little philosophy might help. Though it would take something very profound to crack Jacob’s bubble of Self Satisfied Absolute Certainty I think !

  19. For the intelligent posters here, I give you a translation.

    When Alec say’s

    “It really does seem that the hard core loony right brigade……”

    He means people who disagree with his point of view on Brexit.

    The only right-wing loonies I registered yesterday were those in New Zealand who committed that truly awful massacre.

    Shame on you Alec for equating some British MP’s and people who post here with the perpetrators of such a heinous crime.

  20. @Trevors – “@ ALEC – Folks sometimes use a partial quote to pick up a point but deleting words from a quote in order to total reverse the meaning?!? ”


    Just why did you do it – or where you just being a total numpty for the sake of it?

  21. @hireton – this, I think, is part of the problem –

    @TOH – “Shame on you Alec for equating some British MP’s and people who post here with the perpetrators of such a heinous crime.”

    You have a record of objectionable and offensive comments, but even you might like to consider making an apology for that one. How on earth did you think I made any connection between hard line Brexiters and people who massacre innocent muslims? Is there something wrong with you.

    Many on the left have had to out up with the epithet of ‘loony’ for years, but it’s funny how prissy the other side are about it when it’s applied to them.

  22. @ TOH

    “Not a surprise to either of us I suspect.”

    Not a surprise to me either, since you ‘forgot’ to say that ALL these figures are for Tory voters.

    To be fair, maybe you didn’t realise, since the DM have tried their best to fool casual readers by their confusing use of Tory numbers for the main graphic, but this ploy was already pointed out a couple of times on this forum last night, so you shouldn’t really have been taken in.

  23. Statgeek

    Thanks for the info.

  24. PTRP
    “Logically one would basically believe what May said in the Lancaster House speech but in truth it was designed to convince you to join her and vote conservative, which you did I don’t think she ever believe it was a promise that needed to be cashed in, or more likely she discovered that it actually meant no deal once she had talked it through logically with Barnier and co. (the famous stair case slide)”

    I think she meant her red lines to be real red lines. She must have known that the many real Leavers in her party would accept nothing less as has proved to be the case. She made a number of big mistakes after triggering Art. 50.

    1. She ordered the Brexit Secretary to agree to Barnier’s insistence of discussing the WA without discussing a Trade deal in parallel. If she had not done that it would have soon become blindingly obvious that the EU were out to screw us in the WA and trade.
    2. She failed to put a real big drive behind preparations for No Deal Brexit instead just used a slogan “No deal is better than a bad deal”
    3. Having accepted Barnier’s insistence (see 1) above she then allowed her red lines to slip instead of standing firm. If she had done the latter, she would have quickly realised that the EU would not do a sensible deal. She would still have had time to prepare much better for no deal.

    I could go on but that is enough for now.

  25. TOH,

    I am puzzled in your post by which results you are presenting as the reported views of all voters, and which of only Conservative voters.

    So for clarity, these are the views of *Conservative* voters in the Survation poll:

    Should MPs back May’s deal?
    Yes 57
    No 26

    May’s deal vs no deal:
    May’s deal 41
    No deal 40

    vs 2-year delay:
    May’s deal 56
    2-year delay 25

    vs softer Brexit:
    May’s deal 51
    Softer Brexit 31

    vs new referendum
    May’s deal 61
    New referendum 27

    Should May call a general election?
    Yes 25
    No 65

    And these are the views of *all voters* on the same issues:

    Should MPs back May’s deal?
    Yes 36
    No 39

    May’s deal vs no deal:
    May’s deal 36
    No deal 35

    vs 2-year delay:
    May’s deal 34
    2-year delay 41

    vs softer Brexit:
    May’s deal 30
    Softer Brexit 45

    vs new referendum
    May’s deal 37
    New referendum 44

    Should May call a general election?
    Yes 43
    No 41

    As I can’t see how that can be interpreted as “voters want May’s deal agreed and don’t want a softer Brexit, new referendum of a general election”, I think you may have misread the views of Tory voters as being those of the whole population.

    Which I also think is what the Daily Mail intended.

  26. Colin

    “Perhaps the stability of VI should not be relied on by either party at present !”

    Yes, I think rather meaningless. The detailed questions are always much more interesting to me anyway.

  27. “Shame on you Alec for equating some British MP’s and people who post here with the perpetrators of such a heinous crime.”

    Alec did no such thing. There was no mention of or allusion to the massacre in his post. It is you who has made that connection, TOH.

  28. “Crawl back into your hole please. ..”

    This unpleasant language which lacks restraint and is full of contempt for the person to whom it is directed is not welcome to me.

  29. The Othe Howard,
    “The only right-wing loonies I registered yesterday were those in New Zealand who committed that truly awful massacre. ”

    Jo Cox?

  30. @Danny

    “The questions you highlight show a tiny majority for Scotland to go for indepenedence if the Uk leaves the EU either with deal or no deal. Tiny, but as big as the leave referendundum vote here. I wouldn say such a small margin should be enough to make such a trannsformational change, but leavers apparently do not agree so i suppose on this basis the Uk govenment will be giving Scotland independence.”

    And then there’s those who are undecided on the matter, and are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach, i.e. how Westminster handles NI and Gibraltar, and how the EU defends the Republic of Ireland along the way.

  31. Wes

    Alec was stupid to use such language as he did to insult his opponents on a day like yesterday. If you cannot see that then we really do have a problem in this country.

    I am happy for others to judge my comments.

  32. Danny

    So it’s OK to equate some Mp’s and people who post here to the murderer of Joe Cox is it?

    I thought you more intelligent than that.

  33. TW

    Interesting analysis of likely Parliamentary voting for May’s third attempt at pushing her deal through. My view is that it will scrape through with Arch Remainers like Grieve and Lee falling in line. Supplemented by some but not all hard leavers folding too. I also expect the number of Labour leave MPs increasing in support of May’s deal with the DUP also backing her too.

    This will leave around ten hardcore ERG members refusing to back her but they will be negated by the Labour leavers supporting her deal. It does though look like a very tight call.

  34. Alec

    You certainly have a record of objectionable and offensive comment.

    I am appalled you have not apologised, you really have sunk to new depths. Yesterday’s events were truly dreadful and yet you equate people who you disagree with, to the perpetrators by the language you used.

    I find your lack of apology contemptible

  35. Wes

    Your correct, very misleading display in the Mail.


    Apologies , please ignore my post on the Mail Poll.

    To much in a hurry to go out. I have to plead guilty to misreading twice in two days.

  36. @ TOH – I’ll wait until I see the tabs on the Survation website but it is certainly no surprise that CON have dropped after last week’s “betrayal” (as many will see it)

    The loss has not gone to UKIP. Do they show BXP?

    My guess would be a large rise in DK for CON and possibly a large drop in DK for LAB?

    We agree that if CON pursue with May’s deal they will lose VI and given the very fragile majority they have they simply limp on turning the 26pages of PD waffle into a full treaty of surrender. I doubt they will limp on for long as it will only take a few CON MPs to decide to hit the “nuclear button” and end this govt.

    Hopefully a few more polls out quick to steer CON onto a different course. Although even if MV3 was to pass, we’ll then get into the “naughty” stuff – but that has political consequences.

    @ ALEC – The accepted norm seems to be to use quote marks to discuss a point someone makes. I don’t delete words to totally change the meaning but do what you like.

    You never answer simple questions. I try to answer all questions posed to me, explain points that folks don’t seem to understand. I often do this even when they are repeated but again do what you like. I’ll try a few simple ones for you.

    Q1: Do you think “No Deal” is off the table (Yes/No)?

    Q2: Do you think even if MPs vote for MV3 next week, assuming the vote is held, that means the current WA+PD will be become instantly LEGALLY binding (Yes/No)?

    Q3: If No to Q2 the do you care to enlighten us with your vast knowledge of the subject and explain what other hurdles still lie in May’s path.

    @ DANNY – ?!? You don’t think the votes in HoC are important? If you’re not interested then use the scroll feature. JJ and others have provided useful info in the past and I hope others, but clearly not you, are interested in the numbers.

    As for the Scottish poll, then sadly it is not a perfect tracker but here is the Dec5 poll so you can compare the two Q15s. Although not perfect it shows a shift towards “No Deal” v “Ind”.

  37. TOH

    No worries-I didn’t read the poll anyway.

  38. A new poll on Britains Elect. Rogue or reaction to the weeks events?

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 39% (+3)
    CON: 35% (-5)
    LDEM: 10% ()
    UKIP: 5% (-)

    via @Survation, 15 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 18 Feb

  39. SAM
    ““Crawl back into your hole please. ..”

    If that was directed at me then why not say so or are you afraid?
    I directed my anger at Alec because he used the phrase “hard core loony right brigade” within a day of the appalling massacre in New Zealand. If he had bothered to reply by making clear that he was just insulting people he disagrees with, and not implying the obvious connection. Then I would have been happy to accept that. However sadly he has seen fit not to do that hence my reply to him.

  40. @ oldnat

    Just cut and paste the description of the thing you want into Google and I’m sure there are alternative suppliers- that’s how I am able to boycott Amazon :-)

    It wouldn’t surprise me if there were starting to be issues with deliveries to UK with the potential for different tariff rates at 29th March. I got in my order of Indonesian gado gado sauce (from Germany of all places) which will keep me happy for a year until it might become an issue.

  41. The Other Howard,
    “So it’s OK to equate some Mp’s and people who post here to the murderer of Joe Cox is it?”

    I dont think we were talking about any mps or people talking here. You made a general point that there are no right wing loonies in the UK. I think history proves you wrong.

    It isnt about whether most people will not react to the extreme arguments by going out and committing mayhem, but whether any will. There are people out there right now threatening all sorts if they dont get their way over Brexit.

    You ought to have gathered by now that I look to who stands to benefit, and what final outcomes will be. If brexit goes ahead it will harm the UK, somehwere between a moderate amount and pretty big. The economic and political effects are separate, and the government seems to have decided to accept a political/sovereignty hit in return for minimising an economic hit. Regardless, the consequence will be a poorer and less influential UK (or maybe just England).

    So looked at from outside the box, the only people who would want this outcome are other national powers who are rivals or frankly enemies of Britain. We have a lot.

    The leave MPs I see as misguided rather than malign. A friend of mine who once nearly became a tory MP and met a few ministers in his time, has a dim view of MPs abilty generally. But you might also recall I think tory MPs have huge tribal loyalty, and will be hamstrung by the bias from their ruling class background, which no doubt tends to make them believe myths about British greatness and invincibility. We come back to ‘dulce et decorum est pro patri mori’, instead of trying to find a decent cooperative way to live with our neighbours as a nation.

  42. Con on 35% in both this morning’s polls not good news for them but Lab at 39% and 31% is beyond margin of error. LDs holding up (10% and 12%)despite lack of much publicity. UKIP not going anywhere (5% and 6%).

  43. @Trevors – “@ ALEC – The accepted norm seems to be to use quote marks to discuss a point someone makes. I don’t delete words to totally change the meaning but do what you like.”

    Please stop ly!ng.

    I said – “We aren’t ‘legally leaving’ without a WA, and then getting a WA.”

    You then said – “@ ALEC – “We aren’t ‘legally leaving’ without a WA,”

    That is deleting words to totally change the meaning.

    If you can’t just admit a mistake, then that’s your business. Everyone else will know the score.

  44. Did I miss some comment by Alec, other than the one I responded to [1], that caused ToH to have a hissy fit?

    I can’t imagine how anyone can suggest that the comment I saw equated the NZ terrorist, or the Birstall one, with anyone on this site or the MPs they support.

    Such a response only makes any kind of sense (and not much even then) if ToH genuinely considers that he, and those he agrees with, are part of “the far right” (however that is defined).

    It’s well established from polling that, wherever people’s views lie on any political dimension, most people place themselves at or near the “centre”.

    [1] “There really is a severe and highly dangerous threat emerging from the far right on a global scale.”

  45. The Trevors,
    Q1. No deal is not off the table. It is still an unexploded ticking bomb which the conservative government is holding.
    Q2 IF the government deal is accepted, it will simply be the start of 2/3 more years of parliament unable to decide on what it wants and then a rerun of the current situation when the transition period expires.
    Q3 I keep saying the biggest hurdle the conservative govenment faces is how to bring about remain. They are doing quite well considering they pledged to leave and are supporterd by leave inclined voters. So the hurdle is in fact their own supporters.

    @Danny, yes I think the votes in the commons are important, but I think you just go on about them as a form of fillibuster.

  46. Shevii

    Re cut & paste – I did, but other suppliers were more expensive. Easiest solution for me was to get my son to buy it, and I’ll reimburse him.

  47. @ ALEC – For fairness then I’ll repost your entire original reply:

    “@Trevs – forget ‘TRAP’s – that’s just total nonsense. We aren’t ‘legally leaving’ without a WA, and then getting a WA. Barking. We either leave with a WA or without one.
    After three years of fun on here, it’s time to stop inventing completely nonsensical scenarios that can never happen.
    March 14th, 2019 at 10:44 pm”

    (emphasis on the part I clipped, with no words deleted)

    I’ll go through it slowly in two parts – please identify which bits you don’t understand and I’ll try to explain them or discuss them if you want an adult debate. Some questions along the way.

    1/ TRAP was my comic acronym for a “fudge” – joking aside this represents an example of the kind of “conditions” that EC-EU27 might impose on the terms of an “Extension”. They want May’s deal to pass, ideally MV3 but MV4, 5 or 6 (agreed? Yes/No)

    Q: What terms of extension do you expect (more than one IMHO but please enlighten us on your opinion, use terms such as guillotine clauses etc if you like)?

    I’ll repeat the TRAP is simply one scenario, with a comic acronym, one I don’t want (it suits me for folks to continue to think Remain is still achievable). I’m simply showing this scenario is possibly one that would help May win MV4 (if we get to that) and hence one that EC-EU27 and her might agree (to be plausible then terms of “extension” must be something EC-EU27 want to offer)

    NB May agreeing is not HoC agreeing and hence not instantly UK law. I’m sure by now EC-EU27 know May’s word is wind and HoC are extremely divided and unable to “enable” anything – but I doubt they actively want the default of NO WA, or at least don’t want any blame for it.

    2/ There are two “legal” ways to leave (as per A50(3)). With THE Withdrawal Agreement or Without (ie THE WA or No WA). May’s current deal represents THE WA as the only agreed deal on the table but until it is fully ratified into UK law it is not legal binding (hence why, “A” different WA is not impossible – unlikely, YES, impossible, NO)

    I’ll repost A50 so you can check

    I have no issue with you calling me names, insults or slurs but these are IMHO important issues worthy of an adult debate.

    The one part I clipped was:
    “We aren’t ‘legally leaving’ without a WA,”

    IMHO that shows you either

    a/ don’t understand this part of A50(3) that covers the NO WA

    “failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2”

    b/ you seem to think if we don’t have a WA then we don’t Leave (ie we would Remain by default)

    So perhaps you could clarify, is it a/ or b/?

  48. Theresa May probably could get the deal through next week / week after , but it will be extremely tight.

    I suspect a combination of bribes to the £ DUP, promising to stand down by the end of June, more fudge from Brussels and the Attorney General will just do it, but it could be single figures?

  49. Danny

    You don’t need to worry. I expect a revoke at 22:55 on 29th March 2019.

    Once May’s deal is defeated next week (or even on a MV4 the following week), revoke will be the only option as no deal has been ruled out. Regarding an A50 extension, I can ‘t envisage the EU granting one, other than for a short period if May’s deal passes.

  50. @TOH – nobody enjoys UKPR when it descends into angry exchanges and claims of insult, especially when such awful sensitivities are involved, so in the interests of everyone I’d like to try and defuse this.

    I’ve checked back through my posts very carefully to see where we went wrong.

    My original post from 10.58pm last night commenced with –
    “It really does seem that the hard core loony right brigade are beginning to crumble, with the DUP joining the scramble for something to save face and avoid a no deal. The ERG never understood until now that the ticking clock was ticking for them, but bless them – understanding has never been their strong point.”

    I then went on to discuss how May might end up coming out of this in polling terms. I didn’t mention anything to do with the NZ attack, and to be frank, I really cannot see how any sensible person could have made the connection between hard line Brexiters and anti muslim fanatics.

    However, just before that, at 10.43pm, in response to @Hireton, I posted –

    “There really is a severe and highly dangerous threat emerging from the far right on a global scale.”

    It appears that you have conflated two separate posts, and taken the expression ‘hard core loony right brigade’ made specifically and obviously in the context of Brexit, with ‘the far right’, made separately in the context of the NZ massacre.

    I have two observations to make. Firstly, I did not and do not ever intend to draw any parallels between the ERG/DUP/Hard Brexiters and anti-muslim killers. Other posters on here appear to have understood that, so on balance, I would suggest that you fired off on the basis of a misunderstanding, which I hope I have now cleared up definitively for you.

    Secondly, if the expression ‘loony right brigade’ offends you, please accept my apology. I don’t mean offence to anyone, and this was intended as a lighthearted jibe, which most other posters seem to have appreciated in the context it was made.

    As it happens, I have spent some time checking back through old UKPR posts, and I have found several (more than 2, less than 5) posts in recent years from you where you have used the words ‘loony left’, ‘loonies’, and ‘lunatics’ to describe those who you disagree with, that you perceive to be on the left of politics. I personally didn’t find those references of yours to be offensive, and I didn’t connect them with any terrorist or other violent activities, but having used those terms yourself, I had assumed you were, broadly speaking, happy with that kind of language.

    Clearly you are not, at least when applied to hard line Brexiters, so by all means accept my apologies if this caused offence, and my assurance that there is no connection between my use of such an expression and the NZ massacre.

    @Everyone else – apologies for inadvertently sparking a moral outrage on UKPR. Never good news when this happens. Hopefully we can all put this bed now.

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