There were two polls in the Sunday papers. ComRes had a poll conducted for BrexitExpress (a pro-Brexit pressure group) prominently but poorly reported in the Sunday Telegraph. The voting intention question included The Independent Group as an option, producing topline figures of CON 36%(-2), LAB 34%(-3), LDEM 8%(-2), TIG 8%(+8), UKIP 6%(nc). Most polling companies are not, at present, including the Independent Group in polls – something that will presumably change as they take steps towards actually forming a party and clarifying their future intentions. The tables for the poll are here.

The Sunday Telegraph headlined on a finding that 44% of people agreed with a statement that “If the EU refuses to make any more concessions, the UK should leave without a deal”, suggesting rather more support for no deal than almost all other polls. I would advise a lot of scepticism here – agree/disagree statements are a rather suboptimal approach towards asking polling questions (I’ve written about them before here) that tend to produce a bias in the direction of the statement. The problem is they give only a single side of the argument – the question only asked people if they agreed with a statement supporting leaving with no deal in those circumstances. It did not offer people alternative options like a delay, or accepting the deal, or having a referendum. One can imagine that a poll asking “In the event that the EU does not agree to further changes to the deal, what do you think should happen?” would have produced rather different answers. Indeed, later on the survey asked which outcomes people thought would be best for the UK economy and best for UK democracy, which produced rather more typical results.

Note also that the Sunday Telegraph’s claim that the poll showed an increase in support for No Deal is not accurate – the poll back in January asked a differently worded question (it was structured as support/oppose, rather than an agree/disagree statement, and was in a grid along with other options) so they are not directly comparable.

As well as the ComRes poll there was a BMG poll hidden away in the Independent. The figures were unusually reported without excluding don’t knows or won’t votes, with the Conservatives on 31%, Labour on 27% and 8% for the Liberal Democrats. According to the Independent the Conservative lead is five points once don’t knows are excluded – that implies something along the lines of Con 40%, Lab 35% and Lib Dem 10% – though the full figures are yet to appear on the BMG website.


870 Responses to “Catching up on the weekend polls”

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  1. @ Neil J

    “I think the DUP and ERG are beginning to blink, time will tell if there will be enough of them who accept May’s deal”

    I was struck by the change of tone from all the leading ERG and DUP figures in the past week. The EU hasn’t altered the Backstop one iota since January, and yet we now have the likes of Mogg and Foster stating they may now vote for the deal subject to some rather vague conditions.

  2. Garj
    “Blimey. My son can’t even walk yet, he might have managed to complete a PhD by then!”
    Well we are talking about the long term future of the UK.

    DARWEL
    “ToH is clearly fixated in having full control for his region of England, but doesn`t seem to realise that this inevitably means other parts of the UK do not have control over their affairs.”

    Ah! Your usual anti southern English rant again.

    “In the thread above, he grumbles at me for using words spoken daily by many millions of UK citizens, but which are infrequently heard in his part of Surrey.”

    Well actually I wasn’t grumbling at you, spell checker does not recognise it, which was what I said. I called it quaint because it is, as you say, in my part of Surrey. No doubt some of the ways we talk down here would seem quaint to you. I fully appreciate it is in common use in Scottish English.
    .
    LEWBLEW
    “Yes it does. Doesn’t matter whether both sides told lies, the vote was close enough to be invalidated by dirty play.”

    Really, Would you have said that if Remain had won?

    Your comment is nonsense IMO, using your logic the last three GE’s which have been close, would all be invalid.

    Alec
    “Incidentally, spell checker does not like your rather quaint use of “outwith”.

    There’s a man who doesn’t know hs own language.”

    Well neither do you by the looks of it. Despite my dyslexia, I at least know that “his” is spelt with an “i” in the middle. You really cannot resist having a silly little dig can you, bit childish really. I refer you to my reply to Davwel above.

    COLIN
    “I don’t know why you think so. Both parties are committed to a FTA in the PD.”

    You believe it do you? You really think the EU will allow us to trade freely with other countries. Sorry I don’t believe that at all.

    “I don’t think the EU wants the backstop to operate that way any more than we do. In any event we have a detailed report from EG on how “Alternative Methods” will work-so the parties will not need the backstop.”

    In that case there is no need for the backstop. The EU can withdraw it from the WA or put a time limit on it and I suspect May’s deal would then go through parliament. So why don’t they?

    Have a good evening all. Been wet and windy down here which gave me time to post. Apologies for the length of some posts but I think it only fair to reply when people post to me.

  3. TW

    ” The one time I’ll be supporting Ireland over Wales ;)”

    Me to :-)

  4. @ ALEC – “I too am slightly bemused by the idea that France will punish the UK during any extension.”

    Well I’m amused that you think France (and EC, most of EU27, EP) will not want to put the priority of the 27 remaining EU members first.

    One of the few things we might agree on is that EU put the priority of club members first (although IMHO not club members get the same priorities)

    Do you think they’ll “play nice” with someone leaving the club?

  5. @Trevors – “You’ve never seemed to understand the concept of time. Today you show you don’t seem to understand the difference between:

    A
    The
    No…etc”

    Sorry Trevs, wriggl as much as you like, but you just don’t understand the point of A50.

    If you leave without a WA, you don’t have a WA.

    What you said riginally was-

    “How do you remove Remain as an option – you ask EU27 for a T.R.A.P. (or appear to be forced to accept that as the only offer they are prepared to make)……

    We “legally” leave at 11pm on 29Mar’19, agree not to hold EP elections, remove the option to revoke but give HoC 2-3mths to implement legislation for her deal or “No Deal””

    In other words, what you are saying is that we leave with a WA – which you call a TRAP, for some strange reason, while then saying that we then proceed to sort out a WA like the one we already have.

    Apart from yur ridiculous attempt to distort someone else’s post by simply cutting out half the sentence and then ly!ng about it, your entire starting premise is total nonsense.

    It’s stream of consciousness stuff, with no basis in reality – but you know that already.

  6. TOH

    @” You really think the EU will allow us to trade freely with other countries.”

    The decision will be ours.

    As in any major trading agreement between developed countries product regs are mutually recognised /aligned in order that consumers may be offered them by both parties & companies can actually do business..

    . In our case of course , on the day we leave , we will have complete alignment with EU regs. How much we choose to diverge over time from given EU regulation on given product sectors will be our choice & we will weigh up the pros & cons of risk to existing markets & opportunity in new markets.
    There will be a dispute resolution mechanism in our FTA for cases where the degree of divergence is disputed.

    All of this is normal-and of course , in trade between major economies.

    In a globalised world economy there is increasing convergence on standards , which reduces the chance that two major economies will have wildly differing product regs.

    THe FTA outlined in the PD envisages no tariff or non tariff barriers on ALL goods.

    For Services , a different approach is outlined in the PD & there is more scope for divergence with EU , or to put it another way-to develop our own corpus of performance standards in a sector where we are strong.

  7. TOH

    @”In that case there is no need for the backstop. The EU can withdraw it from the WA or put a time limit on it and I suspect May’s deal would then go through parliament. So why don’t they?”

    Presumably because they don’t have enough confidence in the Alternative Methods placed before them as yet.

    One could equally ask why ERG are worried about a backstop which they say they have the means to obviate.

  8. Another one for Jacob to ponder.:-

    “The EU would terminate Britain’s membership of the bloc on July 1, if the country has not taken part in European Parliament elections, according to leaked documents outlining conditions for a delay to Brexit.

    The draft document, circulated to EU ambassadors on Friday and seen by the Financial Times, makes clear Britain has to take part in the May 23-26 votes if it seeks an extension of more than three months.

    Britain’s membership extension beyond March 29 is to be debated by EU leaders at a summit next week and European capitals disagree over the terms and length of any delay. Any decision requires the unanimous consent of 27 remaining EU leaders and the UK.

    The document makes clear the legal constraints on the EU over a possible extension. It warns that EU institutions would “cease being able to operate in a secure legal context” if Britain remains in the EU after July 1 without having held elections.

    The legal conclusion could help Theresa May in her efforts to persuade recalcitrant Brexiters to back her withdrawal agreement in a third vote on the deal in the House of Commons next week.”

    FT

  9. More from that FT article :-

    “But beyond the “essential” obligation to hold elections, the paper makes it clear that it will be hard for other member states to apply other conditions to an extension. It says the EU treaty “does not foresee that an extension could be granted subject to special conditions expressly put on the withdrawing state”.

    This may allay UK worries that, for instance, Spain will seek additional concessions on the issue of Gibraltar — a territory long disputed between Madrid and London — as a condition for approving an extension.

    If there is a long extension, France is also looking to place limits on the UK’s influence during long term EU budget negotiations or the appointment of top jobs.

    Separately, the paper stresses that trade negotiations with London would be impossible during the extension period, since the UK would not have left the union, scotching arguments made by some Brexiters.

    This point was underlined by Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, during the discussion with ambassadors. “As a consequence, a prolonged extension would result in a significant postponement of the opening of that [trade] negotiation,” the paper said.”

    FT

  10. I came across this defence of May.

    And now, we bring you recently discovered black box recordings from Brexit Airlines…

    “Fly us into this mountain!”

    “What? No, I don’t think that’s a good idea.”

    “Tough! We’ve taken a vote of the passengers and crew and fractionally over half of them say anything would be better than the in-flight screening of Eat, Love, Pray, so fly us into that bl**dy mountain now!”

    “Jesus. OK, if that’s what you’re going to insist on… I suppose if I drop the nose a bit and come port a few degrees, I can just clip the tip of the mountain with the undercarriage and we can still…”

    “NO!!! Lots of people actually live on the mountain itself, they do just fine with none of this ‘remaining airworthy’ carp – mountain means mountain! Now do it or we’ll open the cabin door and sling you out!”

    “Oh, dear God. Right, well, here goes… Hail Mary, full of gr…”

    “YOU’RE DOING IT WRONG! This is going to leave wreckage all over the mountains and body parts all over the trees – and we won’t get our complimentary sparkling wine in first class after the crash!”

    “But you can’t possibly crash into a mountain and expect n…”

    “YOU’RE A TERRIBLE PILOT!!!!!!!!!”

    >Screams, explosions, gristly crunching noises<

    Jonathan Trueman

  11. Colin – If we replace the word “free” with “unconstrained”, would the issue not come into a brighter light?

    An unconstrained trade agreement isn’t really an agreement at all, in that the parties to it would not feel bound by its t&c’s. When JRM asked the attorney general if it would be OK to resile from a treaty in the future, he was admitting that he doesn’t believe in agreements at all. Trade agreements cannot possibly be described as unconstrained, simply because they include binding clauses which constrained the freedom of the parties to act outside the terms of the agreement.

    If we want to trade freely, then we need to be honest about not wanting to trade with agreements in place.

    I hope Colin that you at least will appreciate the non-partisan nature of my comment!

  12. An odd incident this evening.

    I have sometimes previously used the large US chain Barnes & Noble to buy gifts for my family there.

    Tonight, I tried to buy a birthday present for my grandson from them.

    Unfortunately, the “United Kingdom” no longer appears as an acceptable country from which they (or presumably their bank) are prepared to take a credit card payment.

    A consequence of Brexit uncertainty, perhaps?

  13. @ Colin

    ““But beyond the “essential” obligation to hold elections, the paper makes it clear that it will be hard for other member states to apply other conditions to an extension. It says the EU treaty “does not foresee that an extension could be granted subject to special conditions expressly put on the withdrawing state”.

    Many thanks for this, and your response earlier this afternoon. From this, I think it is clear that the EU’s view is that it is not permissible for individual EU Member States to seek ‘bespoke’ conditions to an Article 50 extension.

    The future trading agreement is quite another matter though. Individual countries’ concerns (such as Spain’s on Gibraltar) could come into play. This in turn explains the logic of settling the “easy” issue of the Withdrawal Agreement first, and why it was never remotely possible to wrap up an entire new comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU in just a year or two.

  14. James E, Colin,

    There are two different things here. It seems clear there will not be a host of special conditions attached to the EU’s collective agreement to an A50 extension.

    However, individual states could veto it unless they get concessions from the UK in bilateral negotiations beforehand.

  15. @ Hal

    That’s something I hadn’t heard of – and I don’t think bilateral discussions are envisaged under the Lisbon Treaty.

    Are any such bilateral negotiations lined up for the next 14 days?

  16. Re the stories of the additional bribe being offered to the DUP.

    Seems a very desperate strategy to give even more bribes to those that wouldn’t stay bribed originally.

    I’m afraid the principles of bribery seem to have fallen to a new low.

    If you can’t even trust those who have received bulging brown envelopes to behave decently, then the entire basis of the UK state has collapsed before our eyes.

    I shall write a stiff letter to the Times!

  17. James E,

    No it would not be anything to do with the EU at all. Bilaterally means between states. The message would be: Do X or we veto your extension.

  18. “Theresa-style parliaments! Caneron’s second term didn’t last long, and she might be leaving soon… (and Corbyn might retire early and hand over to Thornberry.)”

    Carfrew, I am curious as to why you always refer to May as “Theresa” but every other politician by their surname.

    Is there something we should know about your relationship with our splendid PM?

  19. I don’t agree at all. The referendum didn’t say when we would leave, or even that we definitely would (the question was “SHOULD the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”) and the it was only advisory

    Ok I agree the EU referendum did not say how or when we leave the executive did.

    May defined what brexit meant in her lancaster House speech. As I have said countless time now one of the problems of both her citizens of nowhere speech and the red lines speech is that the very speech writer regrets both speeches since the citizen of nowhere speech he no feels was nativist and unfair and the red lines speech was not meant to define the red lines as irreversible as we are seeing but as guidelines for negotiation

    Simply put I believe May ‘s team tried to placate the ultra with rousing speeches unaware that they were holding her to them. I also do not think that she understood what her red lines meant. it was why I believe Barnier produced the staircase slide

    it is why I have said that both the citizen of nowhere speech and the red lines speech led to where we are today. if you ask Brexiteers like THE OTHER HOWARD they point to the speech as the definition of brexit. And I believe they have good cause to. The speech was a set piece to define the UK’s red lines as the EU had already defined theirs and we looked like we had no clue as to what we wanted.

    You are correct in saying the referendum did not define brexit but I contend that we move rapidly from the referendum to our definition of brexit and what I suspect most people will acknowledge it mapped to some of the rhetoric of the leave campaign but it was also contradictory. If you have any of the red line EEA membership is out of the question.

    Simply put the executive defined brexit and then reneged on it. Had she said at Lancaster House that we would look at EEA or Norway plus or EFTA then that would have been the definition of brexit since she was PM, the Tories were in government and parliament had not got it act together. If you were on this site. Those tory supporter that are now talking about compromise were cheering that speech saying that they had defined brexit. I suspect not that many people really felt that the Lancaster House speech basically said we were going to have no deal.

    Now we can say the referendum was advisory, as it was. We could say that people voted for various version of the leave they did but what the executive decided on our behalf was a version of brexit that would result in no deal.

    Where I agree with DANNY is that the electorate was split on that viewpoint since at the time it was regarded as a hard brexit because by definition it was a no deal brexit.

    What is worrying is that both LEAVERs and REMAINER refer back to the referendum as if democracy stopped that day and thus all decisions have to be based on that. REMAINER state that it was flawed and LEAVER state it is holy. it is neither but it is not where we are now nor where we intended to be which is why I believe respecting the referendum does not mean we need implementing it without confirming it.

    I would describe myself as an ardent remainer and I feel May has made many missteps I feel that because of this that we will leave with no deal since parliament cannot negotiate with the EU only the executive can we have already set the path and unless parliament provisions alternative law with leave on 29th

  20. Hal

    “The message would be: Do X or we veto your extension.”

    Indeed, the governments of each of the 27 would be remiss if they don’t have their civil service looking at any bilateral arrangements with the UK, or unresolved disagreements, to see if they might be usefully deployed at this time.

  21. @ ALEC – ?!?!

    If we leave with A WA then we have left – period. There is no “Remain” at that point. You can not revoke A50 as the conditions of A50 will have completed (please, read A50 and try to understand it, it’s all spelt out)

    So we need A WA, not necessarily THE Current WA

    A
    The
    No

    A “fudge”, with I jokingly called T.R.A.P, is well… A WA and would hence satisfy A50 and remove Remain as an option.

    That is one option, not one I happen to want. If you actually read the post you’d see it might be something May considers, or has forced upon her, in order to remove the only one of the three options that can be removed.

    1/ “No WA” can not be removed
    2/ “The current WA” stays unless/until it is replaced with a new WA
    3/ “Remain” is only possible whilst we can still revoke A50, after that it is Rejoin.

    Will you accept that “No WA” continues to be the default, no matter how it is being spun as “ruled out”.

    You can delay “No WA” but you can not block it unless you “enable” something else (and that is a legal, as in legislation, requirement – even if May wins MV3, it requires legislation which is why she will be asking for a mini extension).

  22. It seems outrageous to me that a single party in NI, with a small number of MPs, is holding the country to ransom over brexit when the Scottish GOVERNMENT, and other groupings, are largely ignored.

  23. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    The backstop is there because UK government and its minister and potential PM have said that they would renege on any deal made so this is why it became legal entity.

    I suspect that the EU will have a FTA with the UK but the reason that the UK does not want a FTA is that it would be limited to that of a normal third party it would take a log time to furnish and in that time there would be lots of horse trading to be done. I suspect that this is why the backstop is problematic. it is because that there is no way to create a borderless border without commonality and that becomes a problem.

    As I said May red line swere for you the definition of brexit, As I have pointed out her speech writer did not believe what he wrote in his speech to be a definition of brexit and yes I agree that is a most stup1d thing to even think but listen to the podcast it is hilarious and damning at the same time

    Logically one would basically believe what May said in the lancaster House speech but in truth it was designed to convince you to join her and vote conservative, which you did I don’t think she ever believe it was a promise that needed t be cashed in, or more likely she discovered that it actually meant no deal once she had talked it through logically with Barnier and co. (the famous stair case slide)

  24. JOHN tt

    I think “Free Trade Agreement” is a term in common usage isn’t it?

    Does it mean ” unconstrained” ?

    Or does it mean -to varying extents, free of barriers at the shared border of the parties ?

    There are certainly a lot of them:-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_free-trade_agreements

    What does Mr. Rees Mogg believe in ?. My impression is that he believes mostly in how very clever he is .

  25. @alec

    “Sadly, more evidence today from Christchurch of the global threat from the far right.”

    Indeed. Notable that the posters normally so quick to react to Islamist atrocities are quiet today about another example of far right extremism.

  26. JAMES E

    @” it was never remotely possible to wrap up an entire new comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU in just a year or two.”

    Absolutely -though that doesn’t stop Corbyn , Thornberry & gang complaining that it was.

    But then -what do they know about it ?

  27. @Trevors – “If we leave with A WA then we “Remain” at that point. You can revoke A50”

    What on earth are you on about? Are you going senile???

  28. Anecdote alert.

    My baby boomer, Daily Mail reading, blue collar Tory, voted for The Referendum Party in 96, voted Leave by post a month in advance dad talked Brexit with me today.

    Its a total mess, NI can go hang, no one knew what leave meant when they voted, he’d vote remain in a second referendum and he hopes that there is another referendum.

    #surprised

  29. B&B

    At a guess you Dad never thought about the position of Ni before, and just sees it is an irritant now.

    If so, I’d suggest that attitude was, and is, very common in GB – especially in the English polity (perhaps excluding Liverpool and parts of London) and increasingly in Scotland.

    Just a guess, though.

  30. Not sure if anyone has reported suvation poll in the DM

    Con 35% (-5%)
    Lab 39% (+3%)
    LD 10% (-)
    UKIP 5% (-)
    Others 11% (+2%)

    Changes from Feb 18th.

  31. @Hireton – yes – I rather thought there would be some greater comment on this.

    There really is a severe and highly dangerous threat emerging from the far right on a global scale.

  32. ON:

    Please extend that concern with Northern Ireland to Central Lancashire folk.

    English was taught by just two very good masters at my grammar, both Irish, and with strong accents from north and south that were instantly recognisable and I have long remembered.

    Preston had several sailings to Ireland each day, and I and girl friend took a vehicle across for a holiday.

    Our CoE church had an annual service for Orangemen, and a fine vicar came from Armagh. Girl friend and I visited his family farm near the border.

    We respect both sides in the Prots v RCs argument, both had some valid complaints. We feel angry about the Southern English being so ignorant on Ireland North and South.

  33. It really does seem that the hard core loony right brigade are beginning to crumble, with the DUP joining the scramble for something to save face and avoid a no deal. The ERG never understood until now that the ticking clock was ticking for them, but bless them – understanding has never been their strong point.

    I suspect there’s going to be a distinctly odd polling situation shortly, where May is seen as the victor, after having triumphed against the odds in doggedly driving the deal through, and will end up getting kudos for piloting through a bill that everyone hates.

    That just about sums up the utterly bizarre nature of anything to do with Brexit. For the Tories, that then fires the starting gun on the real battle, which is the closeness or otherwise of the trading arrangements.

  34. @ OldNat

    The Barnes & Noble seems to be all EU countries and a suggestion it is due to GDPR- not sure the correlation though!

  35. Alec @ Hireton

    “There really is a severe and highly dangerous threat emerging from the far right on a global scale.”

    While I wouldn’t disagree in any way from your sentiments, there is a danger that shorthand like “far right” doesn’t encapsulate the core of the problem – and may distract from that.

    I’m not sure what terminology would be more accurate, but it would have to embrace all those philosophies which ultimately justify murdering other people just because they are of a different human group.

    The USA did the world a disservice by coining the term “war on terror” to describe a particular manifestation of a technique (terrorism) deployed by those threatening them.

    Hatred is the problem.

  36. Shevii

    When I was trying to use the B&N site, all the other EU states (and principalities etc) were listed.

    Have they now disappeared?

  37. @ALEC @HIRETON

    yes – I rather thought there would be some greater comment on this

    I was surprised by that too – not sure anyone but you mentioned it on here Alec? Tho for what it’s worth, I’ve been surprised by the (lack of) reaction from my mostly LoC social media friends too. Even certain friends-of-friends who usually compulsively virtue signal about atrocities like this are generally silent or at least very circumspect. And when it was dominating the TV news at lunchtime in our canteen, people certainly paid strong attention, there was mostly a sort of stunned silence rather than a vocal reaction.

    So I wouldn’t maybe read too much into people not queuing up on here to analyse it politically yet.

  38. Davwel

    I wouldn’t want to make any assumptions about the attitudes of congregations in Central Lancashire as opposed to those in Central Kent (or Central Perthshire, for that matter) as to their degree of concern for the political situation in Ireland.

    My point was the simpler one that, unless the individuals concerned have strong family connections in Ireland, they are unlikely to prioritise issues there.

    That’s not a unique position. My cousin who lives in Kent describes it as the worst run authority in England. Whether she is right or not I don’t know (or particularly care). It’s not going to affect how I vote.

    Of course, if the votes of those in Kent adversely affected my polity, I might be rather keen to see them “go hang”.

    Oh! They do.

    So, I wish them well, but not to have any involvement n the politics of my country.

    I wasn’t condemning B&B’s Dad, just guessing that he was like most folk.

  39. @Hireton,

    Really? Partisan capital from the murders of 49 people?

    Crawl back into your hole please. If you must hold so much hate in your heart for people with views to the right of yours, at least endeavour to be better than them.

    @Alec

    There is certainly a need to look closely at this person’s history and associations. There is a swamp out there on the internet that far-right nutters can slosh about in just as easily as Islamists, fraudsters and [email protected] From what’s reported so far it looks very similar to Brevik and he certainly had links both viritual and actual to extremists across the world, including in the UK.

    The first piece of clarity that may help understand how this fits in will be what happens with the other two suspects in custody. I understand they were found with firearms near the scene. If this was indeed a coordinated group attack that will be something of a dramatic escalation and much more akin to what Islamists have been doing in recent years.

    However a lot of Kiwis have guns and they may just be bystanders who were caught up in the aftermath (as the fourth arrested suspect, now released, appears to have been).

    Hopefully the internet giants will feel even more pressure to reform as a result of this atrocity. That certainly seems to be the tone of the initial media reaction.

  40. Colin – I agree re Rees-Mogg’s self belief! I scratch my head wondering how we could negotiate an agreement that satisfied the requirements of sticking to its terms at the same time as making Jacob and his ilk feel free.

    The big trade agreements signed recently by Trump with Canada and Mexico and by the EU and Japan can hardly be described as “free’ in the same sense that Rees-Mogg defines “free”. One trading country’s freedom is another’s vassalage.

    I wish we had some decent philosophers making contributions. Where’s the 21st century Karl Popper?

  41. @Alec

    Thanks for that. Looked it up on the DM website. The deal polling must be very unsympathetic to the DM point of view, as in the graphic they seem to have chosen only to report the views of Conservative voters!

  42. @ Alec

    Thanks for that Survation poll.

    Survation’s last figures, with a 4 point Tory lead were already the ‘least bad’ for Labour among those we’ve had in the past 4 weeks. The obvious first thought is that this might simply be an outlier – but perhaps perceptions of Tory divisions have had a huge impact.

  43. @ WES and Alec

    Well spotted. The graphic does have all voters in brackets in smaller figures.

  44. “Re the stories of the additional bribe being offered to the DUP.

    I shall write a stiff letter to the Times!”
    @oldnat March 15th, 2019 at 9:10 pm

    What a spaffing good idea.

  45. Al Urqa

    I was aware of that implication! :-)

  46. Certainly an interesting poll, but it is Survation, which typically gets higher Labour VI, and it is just one poll. Surely there’ll be some others coming soon, at least YouGov, as there must be great interest in new data after the events of this week. Another couple of polls might be enough to really suggest a trend if they’re as dramatic as this, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they contradict it entirely.

  47. “The Barnes & Noble seems to be all EU countries and a suggestion it is due to GDPR”
    @shevii March 15th, 2019 at 11:00 pm

    Ah GDPR. That frightens the be-Jesus out of my US employer. Given the mandatory training I’ve been forced to do I imagine that is quite widespread. Bloody EU. What right has it to create an international laxative?

  48. I don’t know whether to be surprised or not about that Survation poll.

    TM & co have painted themselves as defenders and deliverers of Brexit, but suddenly the mask slipped, as it did for Labour a little while ago when they started murmuring about 2nd referenda and tiggers. Just one poll though.

    Is TM really being told to draw up a timetable for her departure, and is it worth doing EU election polls?

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