There are two new voting intention polls in the Sunday papers, tackling the issue of measuring TIG support in different ways…

Deltapoll for the Mail on Sunday have standard voting intentions of CON 43%, LAB 36%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 5%. Respondents were then asked how they would vote if The Independent Group put up candidates at the next election – voting intention under those circumstances switches to CON 39% (four points lower), LAB 31%(five points lower), TIF 11%, LDEM 5%(one point lower). The implication is that the Independent Group are taking some support from both Labour and Conservative though, as we saw with the YouGov poll earlier in the week, it’s not necessarily as simple as a direct transfer – part of the difference may well be people saying don’t know. Fieldwork was between Thurs and Saturday, full results are here.

Opinium for the Observer meanwhile only asked their standard voting intention question, but have begun including TIG in that. This flags up an interesting dilemma for polling companies. The Independent Group are obviously not a political party. While the widespread expectation is that at some point in the future they will become a political party, they aren’t registered as one yet, and aren’t putting up candidates yet. This means that most polling companies are asking hypothetical questions about the level of support they would get if they did stand, but are not currently including them in standard voting questions.

Opinium however are offering them as a current option – presumably their thinking is that it’s only a matter of time before they register and if poll respondents’ intention is already to vote for them when they do, they should register it. The approach Opinium has taken will clearly be the correct way to do it once the TIG do evolve into a political party, the question is whether it’s too early to do it now. Either way, for what it’s worth Opinium’s first polling figures with TIG included as an option are CON 40%(+3), LAB 32%(-5), LDEM 5%(-3), TIG 6%(+6), UKIP 7%(nc). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday, and changes are from a week ago. Full results are here.

To be complete, as well as the SkyData and Survation polls I’ve already written about here, which showed TIG support at 10% and 8% respectively, there was also a YouGov poll midweek. That found standard topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10% and hypothetical figures of CON 38%, LAB 26%, LDEM 7%, TIG 14% (full write up is here. Overall that means, depending on the different questions asked and approaches taken, the initial level of support for the TIG seems to be between 6% and 14%.


1,929 Responses to “Latest voting intention polls & measuring potential TIG support”

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  1. The comres poll in effect asks if people want Theresa May’s deal or no deal, which is about as useful as asking Theresa May’s deal or remain.

    Indeed I suspect if the latter was asked it would get considerably more than 44%

  2. THe young children of the ISIS brides should be removed from their mothers & taken into care & safety -UNICEF might be an appropriate Agency to do so.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/01/defiant-women-and-dying-children-isis-desert-legacy-al-hawl-refugee-camp

    Thereafter it shouldn’t be beyond national governments whose citizens include close relatives-Aunts & Uncles, Grandparents etc -to allow return to family under supervision , after appropriate vetting.

  3. This report-which suggest there could be up to 5000 ISIS children in the Camps, quotes Javid as saying :-

    “”Children should not suffer, so if a parent does lose their British citizenship it does not affect the rights of their child,”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-47304399

    Lets hope this evolves into policy to get these children away from the “ferocious women” described in the report.

  4. Valerie – I completely agree. If she’d said “I heard it and I didn’t take offence”, then that should have been the end of it. The supposed target of the contentious language should be listened to before everyone jumps onto their own high horses.

  5. @adw

    “….you spectacularly miss the point. To such a margin it must be deliberate.. Begum was fully 5 years older than the Bulger killers who were deemed responsible for their actions. If she isn’t responsible for her choices then they can’t be either can they. However if they are responsible for their choices and actions then she must be.’

    Well the same could be said about you. Nobody is arguing that she should not be held accountable for her actions. That is why she should return to the UK to be subject to due process of English and Welsh law. Why do you find that difficult to understand?

  6. @ Trigguy

    “The big factor is the ‘did not votes’ going predominantly to remain. So it really would depend on whether those people did actually turn out in another vote, the vast majority of the rest of the population haven’t really changed their minds much, it seems.”

    Thanks.

    There is of course the recent precedent of GE2017, where Labour narrowed the gap on the Conservatives by 4 points compared to GE2015 without making any net gain from Tory 2015 voters : the churn of Lab>Con and Con>Lab was almost exactly even, with Lab picking up disproportionately among 2015 non-voters.

  7. hireton

    You ARE missing the point. ADW is perfectly clear – he doesn’t want a trial or anything like that – he wants the RAF to obliterate them.

    Not like that would be counterproductive in creating more terrorists or anything.

    What a bloodthirsty idiot

  8. ComRes “No Deal” tracker – not quite a tracker

    In Jan they asked a very slightly different question:

    “Leaving the EU without a deal if the EU refuses to make any more concessions”

    It was also a support 38 / oppose 36 rather than agree 44 / disagree 30.

    I’m not sure that is going to make a big difference as its basically asking people the same thing but slightly annoying when polling companies make these tiny changes to what are supposed to be “trackers”.

    Anyway the changes on new poll versus Jan, v.slightly different poll, are:

    Agree 44 (+6)
    Disagree 30 (-6)
    DK 25 (uc)

    So a 12pts swing in the last 2mths

    Removing DK then x-breaks are with changes are:
    CON VI: 83 agree (+10)
    LAB VI: 43 agree (+10)

    The previous poll, page 67, table 45:
    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Sunday_Mirror_Sunday-Express_Jan_2019-.pdf

  9. I am probably the only person here watching the BBC 2 series following the fortunes of 6 farms in Scotland and N.Ire during 2018. But these programmes are illustrating (not intentionally) the problems that likely Brexits will cause to many farmers, and doubtless bankruptcy for some. Farming has enough hazards and managing problems without an extra set of them and many uncertainties now, due to government silence on farming payments.

    Prices of livestock sold vary enormously, and one would hope that post-Brexit some better systems could be developed. If car manufacturers found that all their stock produced one year sold for a third less than had been received during the previous 12 months, there would be a lot of lay-offs and wailing.

    In last week`s programme, the two Shetland lasses who had taken on Bigton farm after a tragic accident to their father, decided not to follow his practice of selling all the heifers the farm had produced at the spring Lerwick sale. This was because in 2017 heifer prices had been higher at the summer sale. Widow and grandfather were dubious of the girls` plan, to put only 8 rather than 60 heifers to the sale.

    Trade proved to be excellent at the spring sale, average price up 30% on spring 2017. Maybe this week we will see if keeping the 50-odd heifers back pays off, or more likely prices will have fallen, and there will be no compensation for feeding and looking after the heifers for 3 more months.

    https://www.slmg.co.uk/lerwick-sale-april-2018

    Will mother and grandfather grumble at the young girls` judgement?

    I have picked up several other issues relevant to Brexit:

    The constant fight against disease, and how rife is bovine TB in N.Ire.

    That livestock farmers not only buy/sell animals from other farmers and abroad, but they take them to shows. And at the shows, animals have come from across the UK. So N. Ire to the Carlisle Show, then these beasts back home again and off to an Irish show in a fortnight. It`s a recipe for a wide spreading of disease, and clearly needs vigilance at borders.

    The negligible number of non-UK people involved in livestock farming, and most farms having no none-family members in permanent positions.

    The docs have an interesting mix of farmers from the highly ambitious man spending £250,000 importing milking buffalo from The Netherlands to the learner girls who fancy a quiet country life together. So these two are Green and well-intentioned, but need much help to put their ideas into practice. Another very capable farmer is coping with a tough upland farm in the North Cairngorms, with large sheep flocks but also producing valuable bulls – which fight, and then can`t be sold.

    I praise the BBC for this series; it isn`t putting political arguments but just giving facts sympathetically.

  10. @toh

    “Both Remain and Leave ask loaded questions in sponsored polls. Whilst that should be born in mind as AW frequently tells us with such questions.However IMO, it does not make the answers worthless, except for those who are totally blinkered.”

    Indeed they all ask such and I’d consider them all pretty worthless. The best you can get is a trend if it’s asked several times but otherwise there’s no way to judge the bias given by the argument that preceded the agree/disagree.

  11. @Trevs – “@ ALEC – On Planet Remain do they have….”

    Don’t know – never been there.

    Have you?

  12. @davwel

    “I am probably the only person here watching the BBC 2 series following the fortunes of …”

    No, you’re not alone! I enjoyed the first two series as well.

  13. @COLIN

    One of the few things that I agree with Donald Trump on is the idea that the home countries of captured ISIS members have the responsibility to take them back. It is immoral to take away someone’s citizenship just because you don’t like their behaviour (and are trying to win the Tory leadership contest).

    As someone pointed out on the BBC News channel yesterday, the Home Office last year finalised and published a formal process for just this situation, which Sajid Javed promptly ignored.

  14. VALERIE

    “Maybe someone needs to ask Diane Abbott if she would prefer to be called “a black woman” or “a coloured woman”.

    I hope not. It’s about context. If you stand on the pavement and shout ‘black woman’ at Dianne Abbott that is not respectful just because you didn’t shout ‘coloured woman’. You know this and you also know Rudd was not being disrespectful. You even said as much in your next, sarcastic sentence

    “… Or maybe Diane should just be grateful that a white woman was speaking in her defence?”

    Why on earth would you not be grateful – or at least gracious – if someone speaks in your defense?

    Anyway let’s not squabble. I can’t believe I’ve ended up defending Amber Rudd. Posh people often stumble when their vernacular unwittingly jars with the rest of us and she’s posher than she lets on… a distant cousin of The Queen.

  15. @DAVWEL

    I am probably the only person here watching the BBC 2 series following the fortunes of 6 farms in Scotland and N.Ire during 2018

    I have been watching it. Excellent series.

  16. @EOTW

    Me too! It’s brill, and realistic, having briefly helped at a cattle farm in Oxfordshire.

  17. @COLIN

    “The young children of the ISIS brides should be removed from their mothers & taken into care & safety -UNICEF might be an appropriate Agency to do so.”

    Just like that? Without any legal process? ISIS brides are still people you know.

  18. Toby Ebert

    The great advantage of dehumanising groups of people is that it means you need feel no guilt at ignoring their human rights.

  19. @TobyEbert

    “One of the few things that I agree with Donald Trump on is the idea that the home countries of captured ISIS members have the responsibility to take them back.”

    Trump only thinks that when the countries in question are not the United States.

  20. While certain posters (and newspapers) have got very excited about the ComRes question about what the government should do if the EU don’t change their stance on the backstop, it seems to have gone unnoticed that the same poll shows no change at all on the regular tracker question on Remain or Leave. It’s 54:46 to Remain, in line with other polling.

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/?removed=removed&pollster%5B%5D=comres

  21. Bantams,
    “I’m exasperated by Barnier’s comments which give me the impression we have just wasted months negotiating on the backstop, the EU were entrenched in position once they got a whiff there might be a second referendum”

    You shouldnt be exasperated. Had you been following posts her, it would have been clear from the very start that the EU will not change its position. It hasnt become entrenched, it was always their position, chosen for good reasons. The bottom line is the EU is club to help members get advantages from non members.

    The government has agreed that in return for ongoing better access to the EU, it will stay in at least the CU. I imagine we will eventually agree an annual payment for this membership.

    What has really been happening is that the Uk governmen has been stringing along UK voters by pretending that any other deal was ever possible.

    “what’s to stop us putting a unilateral latest date on ending the backstop ”

    Why nothing at all, but that simply amounts to rejecting the EU deal and having a no deal clean break right now.

    “The HoC committee dealing with this say the individual technical components needed to provide a transparent border solution already exist”

    They do not. What they are talking about is how a border might be administered away from the border itself. That isnt no border, its just doing the admin somewhere else. The principle that there really is a hard border is still in place. People wishing to trade across it will still have to do the paperwork, and there will have to be enforcement raids and stops. (otherwise everyone would just ignore the rules)

    Trevor Warne,
    “However, what seems bizarre is the complacency of Remainers. May is ticking down the clock and the clock is not Remainers friend!”

    Maybe they are like me: I have said repeatedly the best way to cement the Uk into a federal EU is for the Uk to leave now and find out what life outside would really be like. Mind, I prefer we keep a detached relationship to the EU where we opt out of anything we dont like. But that is what we have now, and it is what leave will lose if Brexit goes ahead.

    If Brexit goes ahead, it will severely reduce the sovereignty of the UK, its world influence and its net wealth. There are plenty of nations out there who would happily have financed leave to bring this about. I regret that this will happen if we leave the EU and obvioualy oppose it. But in the long run we would be poorer and wiser and rejoin in a far more commited way.

    I am at a loss why leavers do not understand this is what will inevitably happen. Leaving now is simply throwing away the efforts of british diplomats over 70 years to create the highly enviable position we have now.

  22. @ ALEC – I was a hostage on “Planet Remain” until 23 Jun’16 but fortunately I didn’t catch a dose of Stockholm Syndrome after we voted to escape.

    That disease seems to be spread by the Gruan and ES, targeting the more vulnerable youth and denizens of London. I only read the online versions so seem to be immune. The side effects of the disease seem to be:

    – memory loss
    – sense of humour loss
    – loss of cognitive capacity
    – susceptibility to propaganda

    “Gammonland” keep sending “fact giving” missions and “myth busting” raids but these don’t seem to be making any impact.

    Our spies worked out the “cunning plan” to force Gammonland back against its will a long time ago and wait patiently for the clock to tick down to see if we have to launch a counter offensive – currently the “enemy” look so badly organised and devoid of leadership as Special Agent Corbyn’s mission of misinformation is working ;)

  23. JAMESB

    “The best you can get is a trend if it’s asked several times but otherwise there’s no way to judge the bias given by the argument that preceded the agree/disagree.”

    In this polsters case the trend is clearly in favour of No Deal an increa of 6% over the previous poll.

  24. Danny

    “Why nothing at all, but that simply amounts to rejecting the EU deal and having a no deal clean break right now.”

    Quite right and (unless David Davis is a blithering idiot) his comment on Marr this morning can’t have referred to the Treaty of Lisbon.

    There may be others “where a sovereign nation undertakes to join up and can only leave when the other side says so”, but the only two I know of are the 1706 Treaty of Union between England and Scotland, and the 1800 Treaty between GB and Ireland.

    It’s encouraging to see a senior Tory fulminating against such a ridiculous arrangement.

  25. @ NEILJ – Lots of polling on May’s deal v Remain

    “If there was a referendum tomorrow with the option of accepting the government’s Brexit agreement or remaining in the EU, which would you support?”

    Hasn’t moved much but last poll was Opinium 1Mar

    Remain 46
    May’s deal 36
    DK 18

    Ignoring DK gives 56% for Remain.

    We can conclude May’s deal is viewed as worse than leaving with No Deal and also viewed as worse than Remain (I’d agree with both of those, as would likes of Boris)

    The ComRes poll does at least capture the current state of play assuming EU make no concessions (as seems likely). Any poll with “Remain” is hypothetical as that is not a current option and you have a few hoops to jump through with very little time left to make it an option.

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-there-was-a-referendum-tomorrow-with-the-option-of-accepting-the-governments-brexit-agreement-or-remaining-in-the-eu-which-would-you-support/

  26. DAVID COLBY

    @”Why on earth would you not be grateful – or at least gracious – if someone speaks in your defense?”

    Exactly.

    The answer must be-if the the offense you take at a word , trumps any support intended by the whole sentence, or you count any support given by that particular speaker as worthless & undesirable.

  27. TONY EBERT

    @”Just like that? Without any legal process? ”

    No-the process whose intent Charles described-to remove young children to safety who are at risk from their parent.

  28. More important than a slightly different question, the most recent Comres poll has a huge number of leading questions about the EU before the one being headlined. It is all a bit reminiscent of the Brave New World subliminal conditioning.. Sometimes you have to choose between 2 alternatives, both of which are unacceptable to me. On WTO rules the only option to say leaving on them is a bad idea is to say you are “frightened”. Respondents are asked to agree that the EU will put higher tariffs on the UK than on RoW, and then the next question points out that for the UK to do that would be illegal

    I would think by the time they got to the critical question most respondents would either vote randomly or have Stockholm Syndrome and reply in the way they think subconsciously the questioner wants (leave, leave and more leave!). There is no comparison with the previous poll and the suggestion that there is pure propaganda

  29. @jib

    “If not, and her deal gets defeated again, surely it’s the end for Theresa May?

    What then?”

    Constitutional crisis is the short answer.

    There is no sign of a Brussels rabbit so far and I expect if there is to be one the news management would have kicked in by now ( and there were reports that Cox’s antics have effectively brought discussions to an end).

    Could May survive a defeat on mv2? Possibly but surely even she could not continue if the HoC voted against a no deal and for extending a50 given her previous stance.

    I don’t know what scope the Tories have for shortening their leadership process short of MPs agreeing on a unity candidate obviating the need for a membership vote. But could they agree on one?

    Of course, the Palace could take the view that if the Tory Party has to take months to find a new leader there is no reason why the country should have to wait for the gerontocracy of the party to do so. In that case, it might manage a process to find a PM who can command a HoC majority at least for a year or so.

    The player you do not mention is the EU. Their decision on extension or not and for how long will frame the politics of the UK.

  30. @ToH

    “In this polsters case the trend is clearly in favour of No Deal an increa of 6% over the previous poll.”

    2 samples != a trend. Either could be outliers in either direction. There was a reason I specifically said several, not a couple.

  31. Colin

    “to remove young children to safety who are at risk from their parent.”

    But you specified their mother as being part of “an evil creed” as putting their child at risk.

    Any non-arbitrary legal process would require much more specificity than that.

    Would you include those who express support for an “evil creed” to their children within the family home?

    How about those who vote for politicians whose avowed aim is to advocate an “evil creed”?

    I reckon the idea of forcing disabled claimants to be assessed by private contractors, whose payments are increased by the proportion of claimants being turned down, is pretty evil. So is giving targets, for sanctioning UC claimants, to DWP staff. That’s evil too.

    So, once we have removed children from all the parents who voted Con, Lab or LD – where are we going to house all those kids?

  32. @ davidcolby

    “Why on earth would you not be grateful – or at least gracious – if someone speaks in your defense?”

    White woman previously responsible for vicious hostile environment immigration policy which deported black people , made them homeless, jobless and denied them health care unfairly describes you in patronising, racially offensive terms.

    What’s not to like?

  33. “I refer you to the perpetrators of the abuse in Rotherham, Rochdale,Oxford, Bristol, Aylesbury, & Peterborough -their cultural heritage & modus operandi.

    I refer you to the reluctance of “the authorities” to proceed against ethnic minority perpetrators for fear of “racism” accusations, and attitudes to the status of the rootless white girls who were victims.”

    In addition, I refer you to the perpetrators of the abuse in the UK, America, Australia indeed throughout the world, their Christian religious heritage and modus operandi.

    I refer you to the reluctance of the church hierarchy and civil authorities to proceed against the ordained priests, monks and nuns for fear of upsetting the Christian churches and wider establishment and attitudes which led to the victims being disregarded and ignored for decades.

  34. Davwell,
    “why no press reports (well, that I have seen) on what continuing support farmers will receive,”

    Because there is no news to report which would be likely to be viewed positively?

    People object that they are being kept in the dark, but politically, surely no news is better than bad news.

    The Trevors,
    “The “offensive” No Deal Agree/Disagree question is part of summary on p159 with the details page 178 (or simply do “edit find” concessions)”

    Hmm. Cant find what you suggest on p159 (either of the p.159)

    I did have a look at the makeup of the sample. I see it has 37% voted leave and 34% remain, which might be about right.

    But if you look at the breakdown for those who voted conservative in the past, it is 62% leave, 29% remain, 9% did not vote, and labour 25% leave, 48% remain, 26% did not vote. (p. 38/39)

    I am rather surprised at how high is the proportion of those who did in the past vote labour (so they are habitual voters), but who abstained on the brexit question. The ratio split of the vote at 2:1 might not be high enough either.

    My conclusion is that although the sample may have been normalised for the right proportion of labour and con voters, and the overall number of remain and leave voters, it might not be representative of the correct proportions of labour remainers v. conservative rmainers, (ditto leave).

    It is quite possible cons and lab respondents will react differently in the current situation, where the party line my be influencing their reaction.

    Put it another way, if there are too many conservative remainers in the sample, it might still nomalise OK, but give the wrong answer on whether they accept the government deal.

  35. I think some are missing that Rudd’s slip up demonstrated, or at least suggest the possibility, that her aim in invoking solidarity with Diane Abbott was calculated to advance her positioning as the liberal, progressive, moderate candidate in the upcoming leadership election and may not have been as genuine as some people think.

    We have seem similar positioning within Labour over the Tiggers and on other issues as the long (longer than for the Tories) campaign to succeed Corbyn affects likely candidates public statements.

  36. Regarding the Isis bride.

    It’s tragic she has lost another innocent child, but before anyone points fingers we should just keep things in perspective.

    She chose to leave a loving family. No one made her go there. The consequences of her actions lay entirely with her.

    I know we live in a world where consequences of ones actions no longer count, and someone else is always to blame, but maybe this is a salutory reminder.

  37. “Seven Britons among 157 killed in Ethiopian Airlines crash”

    That’s a perfectly normal, and uncontroversial, headline from Channel 4.

    Yet it’s not really any different from the apocryphal Evening Express headline of “Aberdeen Man Dies At Sea” [1] when the Titanic sank.

    All of us are programmed to pay more attention to “Us” than to “Them”. Tagging into a local connection makes a story more relevant, but doesn’t diminish the tragedies that others have faced.

    There is a problem, when folk take the attitude that what happens to “Us” matters, while what happens to “Them” doesn’t.

    [1] The actual 3rd sub heading was “Aberdeen People on the Titanic”

  38. OLDNAT

    Do you think it beyond the wit of the International Community who confronted ISIS, to devise a Protocol for removing those innocent children from risks attendant on them in those camps , and by virtue of their parentage & the circumstances of their birth.?

    Perhaps you think that there is no need to do so-or that it would not be appropriate or advisable?

  39. HIRETON

    @”I refer you to the reluctance of the church hierarchy and civil authorities to proceed against the ordained priests, monks and nuns for fear of upsetting the Christian churches and wider establishment and attitudes which led to the victims being disregarded and ignored for decades.”

    Indeed so-I agree entirely.

    Local Authorities, Police Forces, The Churches-all guilty of failing those abused by the groups of individuals who were too……….difficult………to pursue & expose.

  40. Colin, OldNat and others

    We actually have the precedence (with odd mistakes) -post 1945 Germany (both sides) of dealing with the ISIS brides, mercenaries and their children.

    (To some degree the Netherlands too).

    Apart from the Germans, one has to remember the 3 million foreign Waffen SS troops (over one million of them Russian), the Estonian wives of Wermavht officers and so on. It was done with the smallest harm, with some injustice too.

  41. JIM jAM

    @”I think some are missing that Rudd’s slip up demonstrated, or at least suggest the possibility, that her aim in invoking solidarity with Diane Abbott was calculated to advance her positioning as the liberal, progressive, moderate candidate in the upcoming leadership election and may not have been as genuine as some people think.”

    As fine a piece of cynical malicious insinuation as I have ever read.

    The ” some are missing”; “suggest the possibility” & “may not have been” , being unobtrusively placed to provide the defence of ” Not me of course” if needed -whilst not intruding on or reducing the impact of , the central smear communicated.

  42. “@TOH

    “In this polsters case the trend is clearly in favour of No Deal an increa of 6% over the previous poll.”

    2 samples != a trend. Either could be outliers in either direction. There was a reason I specifically said several, not a couple.”

    Oh well just seen it’s not even a sample of 2. They asked a rather different wording back in January, so this is just straight up mistruths in the telegraph’s reporting.

  43. LASZLO

    Thanks for that.

    On a quick search-the legacy of the Lebensborn Children after WW2 was not a happy one.

  44. Colin

    No, it wasn’t. But hopefully one learns.

    My point was more generic (foreign fighters, sympathisers and accompli ces).

    It is really about transition to leave (even if murder is going on).

  45. Colin

    I think it would be an excellent thing if families weren’t in refugee camps in the first place – regardless of the creed of their parents.

    The “International Community” were keen (and remain so) to pursue their individual state interests, regardless of the poor souls whose lives were disrupted by their interventions – which themselves encouraged the growth of extreme Islamism.

    So, no. I have little faith that they could achieve much in the way of amelioration, much less creating a solution.

    While the methodologies differ somewhat, the eugenics behind the Lebensborn strategy, aren’t much different from the “assimilation” programme towards aboriginal Australians by White Christian Australians – another “evil creed” (there are lots of them!)

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/21/john-pilger-indigenous-australian-families

  46. Colin – let me clear then. I think Rudd is disingenuous and, whilst anecdote is not evidence, I know black people who dispise her having had passports taken off them

  47. Some time ago there was debate on this site about the UK leaving membership of the EEA. If I remember rightly there was a view that the UK did not need to take any action because membership of the EEA would end automatically on leaving the EU. At one time it seemed the UK government was of that opinion.

    A different view was that the UK government did need to give formal notice according to sec (whatever it was).

    Below is the conclusion from a blog post on this subject and the link. The post concerns the arrangements made between the UK and the EEA members for separation. A separation agreement has been agreed but not signed.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/766998/Explainer_-_UK-EEA_EFTA_Separation_Agreement.pdf

    “The UK Government’s policy of creative ambiguity towards withdrawal from the EEA Agreement ended when it ‘agreed’ the EEA EFTA Separation Agreement. This blog post contends that arguably the UK has not taken the requisite appropriate action at the domestic level to withdraw from the EEA. Finally, it is challenging to believe that the UK will be able to deposit its instrument of ratification of the EEA EFTA Separation Agreement by 30th March 2019 unless the emergency power in s.22 CRAG is used.”

    https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2019/02/21/michael-james-clifton-parliaments-role-in-withdrawing-from-the-eea-and-difficulties-in-ratifying-the-eea-efta-separation-agreement/

  48. Sam

    Thanks for those links.

    If nothing else, it clarifies how Parliament has given away much of its power over the Executive, by agreeing clauses in legislation that allows the UK Government to bypass them.

    Under “normal circumstances” (whatever the hell they are!) MPs probably assumed that the UK Government would only use such powers in cases where a) Parliament didn’t give a damn anyway and/or b) due to unforeseen circumstances, the Government had to act quickly.

    Under the current government we have seen much abuse of executive power – the most recent being the use of Section 22 powers to grant the emergency signing of ferry contracts. Joanna Cherry’s questioning of the Government on this, and their refusal to even attempt to justify it, is ample evidence of their further contempt of Parliament.

    The arrogance of Charles I and his claim of divine right to rule, appears to be being replicated by May and her Ministers (though they invoke the deity of a referendum as opposed to an extra-terrestrial creator).

    When England descends into civil war again, I trust that the Scots and the Irish will (this time) leave them to it, and decide not to become involved in their squabble.

  49. Polls need to be taken at great caution at the moment. Today all the polls published have been loaded questions and to the newspapers beliefs.

    Re TIG it makes polls less useful in terms of predicting possible General Election outcomes.

    1) Would TIG contest every seat?
    2) TIG have little party infrastructure so would they get the vote out without feet on the ground.
    3) What relationship will they have with the Lib Dems. An electoral pact? Would this boost LIB Dem Vote share in seats they are contesting and lead to them gaining Seats
    4) How is the TIG vote distributed. In High remain voting areas like London?
    5) Are TIG likely to contest local elections and get some foothold in local government? Looking at May local elections which seems unlikely

  50. SAM

    The relevant para is Article 127 of the EEA treaty.

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