There are two new voting intention polls in the Sunday papers, tackling the issue of measuring TIG support in different ways…

Deltapoll for the Mail on Sunday have standard voting intentions of CON 43%, LAB 36%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 5%. Respondents were then asked how they would vote if The Independent Group put up candidates at the next election – voting intention under those circumstances switches to CON 39% (four points lower), LAB 31%(five points lower), TIF 11%, LDEM 5%(one point lower). The implication is that the Independent Group are taking some support from both Labour and Conservative though, as we saw with the YouGov poll earlier in the week, it’s not necessarily as simple as a direct transfer – part of the difference may well be people saying don’t know. Fieldwork was between Thurs and Saturday, full results are here.

Opinium for the Observer meanwhile only asked their standard voting intention question, but have begun including TIG in that. This flags up an interesting dilemma for polling companies. The Independent Group are obviously not a political party. While the widespread expectation is that at some point in the future they will become a political party, they aren’t registered as one yet, and aren’t putting up candidates yet. This means that most polling companies are asking hypothetical questions about the level of support they would get if they did stand, but are not currently including them in standard voting questions.

Opinium however are offering them as a current option – presumably their thinking is that it’s only a matter of time before they register and if poll respondents’ intention is already to vote for them when they do, they should register it. The approach Opinium has taken will clearly be the correct way to do it once the TIG do evolve into a political party, the question is whether it’s too early to do it now. Either way, for what it’s worth Opinium’s first polling figures with TIG included as an option are CON 40%(+3), LAB 32%(-5), LDEM 5%(-3), TIG 6%(+6), UKIP 7%(nc). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday, and changes are from a week ago. Full results are here.

To be complete, as well as the SkyData and Survation polls I’ve already written about here, which showed TIG support at 10% and 8% respectively, there was also a YouGov poll midweek. That found standard topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10% and hypothetical figures of CON 38%, LAB 26%, LDEM 7%, TIG 14% (full write up is here. Overall that means, depending on the different questions asked and approaches taken, the initial level of support for the TIG seems to be between 6% and 14%.


1,929 Responses to “Latest voting intention polls & measuring potential TIG support”

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  1. Good to see a new survey by ComRes for the Sunday Tel found that 44 percent of the public now support a no deal Brexit if Brussels refuses to make further concessions. The result is a six-point rise from January with less than 30 percent disagreeing that the UK should leave with no deal.

    Well at least it cannot be said that the voters have not been told what no deal means. They have been told repeatedly by Remainers that it means economic Armageddon.

    Also, of note was the fact the survey shows 64% believe that MP’s in leave voting seats should not try to stop our departure. It seems the voters understand democracy a great deal better than some politicians.

  2. @ADW

    The Bulger killers, as I recall, were tried in the UK, following an extensive trial in which evidence of the specific crimes they had committed was discussed, were found to be guilty of the offence and capable of sufficient understanding to be held responsible for it, and then subjected to sentence in the UK. Legal due process was extremely carefully followed.

    The modern alternative – to on suspicion of offences have them stripped of their citizenship and then leave them in whatever the most convenient contemporary foreign warzone was – didn’t even come up as an option.

    I mean, sure, in the Bulger case we’d have had to pay for a military jet to drop them off in the warzone, but that would still have been less expensive than however much it cost to keep them in prison for several years – maybe we should use this as a cost-saving option for anyone the Home Secretary takes a dislike to?

  3. BMG poll in Independent

    Cons 31%
    Lab27%
    LiDem 8%
    DK 22%

    Tory lead 4%. If DK excluded this rises to 5%

  4. Yes Robert but Phillip Lee and other Tories have been highly critical.

  5. HIRETON
    that’s not exactly a watertight answer since, as you point out yourself, the name NAACP was itself imposed by ‘white liberals’. You made a good defence of the word on behalf of the NAACP in your post, saying it was less offensive than ‘black’ at the time (I’m not sure about that) and even arguing that it helped them to be more all-embracing. This very same argument has been hammered in Rudd’s case.
    I’m not a fan of Rudd at all, but I’m not comfortable with confected outrage either.
    Your posts are always smart and thought-provoking IMO, but Diane Abbott should not get to scratch words out of the dictionary on an opportunistic whim.

    I think almost everyone who has commented here about this has got it wrong (and that the age of the poster has a strong direct link to their opinions). Accordingly, my perspective reveals that I’m no spring chicken: In my eyes the offensive signs in the UK screamed “No Blacks”. It was in America that the word ‘colored’ became so toxic and this toxicity crept in here over the last few decades.

  6. @ToH

    The poll was reported rather opaquely, but when put into the normal format it looks like this:

    (Changes from 4th to 8th Feb)

    Con 40 (+2)
    Lab 35 (=)
    Lib Dem 10 (-3)

    No change in the Not Sure/Won’t Say at 22% of the sample

  7. CHARLES

    @”As for the child, we don’t in the UK leave children with appalling parents and say that is justified because the parents are at fault. ”

    True.

    I have not heard anyone suggest removing the children from the mothers& bringing the ( British) children to UK. But I would be in favour of that to save the children & give them a future.

    There would of course be a wave of protest against that however.

  8. JIM JAM

    @”I would ask reasonable ROC posters to pause a little and wonder why so many of the rest of us are seriously disturbed about our Home Secretary’s decision.”

    On this forum ?

    I don’t need to pause and wonder why “so many of the rest of us ” think the way you do-on many issues.

    For me it is a given which I expect when I come here.

  9. Has anyone got the actual questions asked in the comres poll giving 44% supporting no deal. I have seen some reports on it but not the question and whether a straight remain choice was included as an option –

  10. PETE

    I refer you to the perpetrators of the abuse in Rotherham, Rochdale,Oxford, Bristol, Aylesbury, & Peterborough -their cultural heritage & modus operandi.

    I refer you to the reluctance of “the authorities” to proceed against ethnic minority perpetrators for fear of “racism” accusations, and attitudes to the status of the rootless white girls who were victims.

    So far as the adverse effect on child protection services of public spending constraint is concerned-it has to stop now imo.

    As I understand it Public Finances have produced a series of positive variances recently for PH. I hope that he spends them on hard pressed Public Services.

  11. ADW

    @”That woman is a direct threat to the state”

    Well who knows if any of them are still a threat.? This is the conundrum for Western Governments.

    I watch the tv footage of the ISIS “brides” in those camps. Swathed from head to foot in black-some with arm length gloves ; dragging bedraggled confused looking infants around in the dust & filth. A more bizarre sight would be hard to imagine.

    It certainly doesn’t look like , in the safety of a Kurdish Camp, they have thrown off the trappings demanded by their oppressors & abusers. But one is loath to voice concerns like this too publicly for fear of the usual howls.

    And then , yesterday I saw a BBC tv piece on an international study of the ISIS brides in the camps. It identified policing of waverers from the Creed by Believers. Punishments including burning of tents & ostracising .

    When one reflects on Begum’s willingness to embrace ISIS and here cold indifference to the atrocities she witnessed , committed by her menfolk-one wonders whether this evil creed does live on in the minds of those black clad women.

    None of their children should be there-under their control.

  12. @ NeilJ

    It was sponsored by a Brexit supporter so I suspect they would control the questions as it is with all these biased polls, the Remain group have been at it as well.

    At the moment it is no deal against TM’S deal so fair enough but there should be supplementary questions inc second referendum and / or remain.

  13. @BANTAMS
    It was sponsored by a Brexit supporter so I suspect they would control the questions as it is with all these biased polls, the Remain group have been at it as well.
    At the moment it is no deal against TM’S deal so fair enough but there should be supplementary questions inc second referendum and / or remain.

    Many thanks, I suspected as much

  14. Colin,
    You seem a bit confused by the available evidence. Are the women in the camps fanatical observers or are they being coerced by their menfolk?
    The solution to this problem is surely to give British citizens their right to a fair trial back in the UK, rather than trial by media in the atmosphere of an undeclared Tory leadership election. Statements made by people who are potentially under duress should be tested in a proper way.
    There should not be any dispute here. British citizens are the responsibility of the British government, and should not be treated as pawns by populist politicians. I note that sensible Tories like Ken Clarke, with long experience of such things, agree with this

  15. Just as well Grayling isn’t a minister in Finland – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47496326

  16. Polling shows that the option of holding a second referendum is slightly more popular than no deal – as per the question “If the Commons cannot agree on a deal, do you think we should leave with ‘no deal’ or delay Article 50 and hold a public vote on what to do next’:

    whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-the-commons-cannot-agree-on-a-deal-do-you-think-we-should-leave-with-no-deal-or-delay-article-50-and-hold-a-public-vote-on-what-to-do-next/

  17. @ANDREW111
    There should not be any dispute here. British citizens are the responsibility of the British government, and should not be treated as pawns by populist politicians. I note that sensible Tories like Ken Clarke, with long experience of such things, agree with this’

    To be fair even Jacob Rees-mogg recognises this

    Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg said “under our law she is entitled to return”, but said she should the “law should continue to take its course if she has committed offences”.
    He added: “Though, one has to think that a 15-year-old, there may be an extent that she is more sinned against than sinning when she went out there.
    “I would be reluctant to be too harsh in charging, in this instance.”

  18. @davidcolby

    “that’s not exactly a watertight answer since…”

    I don’t think it has to be “watertight”. The NAACP have taken a conscious decision – it has been a matter of debate – to retain their original name. As I understand it, it is a question of retaining the historical link to its foundation and the power of its history for practical purposes.

    Debates amongst black leaders in the early nineteenth century in America about how to describe themselves led to churches largely describing themselves as “African” while political organisations generally opted for “colored” but not all. So the founders of the NAACP were taken their lead in part from the community they were seeking to help and as they were there a century ago in another country and on another continent I think we shouldn’t be too quick to rush to judgement on them for their choice of words!

  19. via Britain Elects

    ComRes Westminster voting intention (ft. TIG):

    CON: 36% (-2)
    LAB: 34% (-3)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    TIG: 8% (+8)
    UKIP: 6% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)

  20. NeilJ
    Yes, I should have given Rees-Mogg credit for being right on this issue, and indeed I just read his very sensible justification for that.

  21. Another poll featuring TIG on Britain elects from com res

    Westminster voting intention (ft. TIG):

    CON: 36% (-2)
    LAB: 34% (-3)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    TIG: 8% (+8)
    UKIP: 6% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    via @ComRes

    TIG eating into the Tory VI more than we would have initially expected

  22. Just a few thoughts on the coming Brexit Parliamentary vote.

    i believe there’s an outside chance that a rabbit gets pulled out of the Brussels hat early next week.

    If not, and her deal gets defeated again, surely it’s the end for Theresa May?

    What then? A shortened Leadership election which Rudd, Hammond et al will try and stitch up? No election in that case and Customs Union deal.

    If a Johnson / Javid type gets in, a general election on Harder Brexit vs Labour soft Brexit beckons?

  23. David Davis just said on Marr talking of Brexit: “There is no other treaty in the world I’m aware of where a sovereign nation undertakes to join up and can only leave when the other side says so”.

  24. Colin,

    I guess my request as some LOC posters who are measured (I like to think so) feel so strongly about this, plus as above many Tories, including Rees Moog, Ken Clarke and Phillip Lee have similar feelings.

    In the same way as I will pause for thought when some ROC posters are genuinely exercised by something whilst frankly dismissing comments from others.

  25. @toh

    “Good to see a new survey by ComRes for the Sunday Tel found that 44 percent of the public now support a no deal Brexit if Brussels refuses to make further concessions. The result is a six-point rise from January with less than 30 percent disagreeing that the UK should leave with no deal.”

    Loaded agree/disagree question. Worthless.

  26. Some views of young people – https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/09/new-young-voters-want-peoples-vote-strongly-remain-survey

    Almost wipes out the leave majority entirely on it’s own, even before we consider any switchers and any deaths amongst the aging leave cohort from 2016.

    I’ve also seen a somewhat amusing clip from Jezza Hunt in the studios this morning. I’m pretty sure he didn’t fully appreciate what he was saying, but in an attempt to persuade his side to vote for the deal, he said that those wanting to stop Brexit only need to do three things;

    1) Vote down the deal
    2) Vote for an extension to A50
    3) Have a second referendum.

    His rationale for backing the deal was that failure to deliver Brexit would be very dangerous for the Tories, so apart from the criticism that he cares only about his party, rather than about his country, the bizarre thing is that he is accepting that a referendum automatically means remain.

    In other words, the Foreign Secretary accepts that he is pursuing a course of action not supported by the democratic majority, purely because more of his parties supporters are in the minority that wants Brexit.

    It’s all a bit barking.

  27. Alec,

    And this is what young people in NI think.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/47503393/people-here-live-in-both-countries

    Perhaps we should start listening to young people instead of telling them what is best for them?

  28. ComRes tabs are up:

    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Brexit-Express-Poll-March-2019_updated3.pdf

    The “offensive” No Deal Agree/Disagree question is part of summary on p159 with the details page 178 (or simply do “edit find” concessions)

    “If the EU refuses to make any more concessions, the UK should leave without a deal”

    Agree 44
    Disagree 30
    DK 25

    So ignoring DK that is 59% who agree!

    X-breaks. CON VI 83% agree, LAB VI 43% agree.

    However, I’m prepared to accept the question is biased. AW has pointed out the “campaign group” issues before and the agree/disagree positive affirmation bias.

    I wouldn’t say the finding is worthless, especially not if it a “tracker question” but for sure the result is “skewed” via the question in order to tilt the result to the campaign groups bias (as PeoplesVote frequently do as well!)

    Pinch of salt, yes. Worthless, no.

  29. Just for a change: on polling.

    One of the problems with the alternative question based opinion polls is that actually there are more questions and hence sets than the number of voters. This is because individuals identify with more than one set (see the results of the ComRes poll referred by @ToH, and the BMG poll of the young voters).

    The largest set is the “I don’t know/care/will put my cross somewhere’. The problem is that it is already three different sets conveniently classified under one.

    We have the vehemently leave and vehemently remain sets. These are quite straightforward. Except that both sets have members that may also belong to another set (wishing leave/remain under certain circumstances).

    Thus membership in a set is a graded one for many members. The trouble is that for some it is based on mutual exclusivity and for others it is based on levels. So, the first group: if A then not B, but if not A then B. While for the second group: if A is more than 0.5 then not B, if A is less or equal than 0.5 then B.

    Polling conflates these differences, thus the responses would vary depending on the options (and the reflections of the reapondent). We also know that the mutually exclusive and gradual choices are dependent on the situation, thus group 1, who normally chooses on the principle of nested decision making can switch to a quantitative choice (i.e. evaluating the options on their merit, reducing bias to the maximum possible).

    Polling tries to get around it by applying distributional models (most of the times multivariate models) to cluster the sets. As a result, answers to a particular question in a poll, let’s say on various Brexits, have a lower confidence level than a crossbreak. Effectively, they are just background material for transparency. It should be then the polling company’s job to present their stochastic-distributional model to draw the conclusion. It rarely happens.

    So, a question whether Britain should leave the EU of 2,000 hour of sunshine a year is guaranteed (or any other such question) yielding a particular percentage of responses is less reliable than the move of voters from Cons to LibDems in Burton to project it on the whole population.

  30. The Agree/Disagree bias doesn’t seem to affect (with an a) some other questions in ComRes.

    p183, table 178

    “Parliament is emerging from Brexit in a good light”

    Agree 6%
    Disagree 78%
    DK 16%

    So that’s only 7% who pick the “positive affirmation” of agreeing.

    PS Remainers should look to table 179 for a question that gives them the answer they want to see (although not if you want a PV) ;)

    PPS Not much good news for May’s deal in that poll.

  31. CATMANJEFF

    Thanks for info on BNG Poll.

    NeilJ

    I reported the ComRes survey as i reported it.

    JAMESB

    “Loaded agree/disagree question. Worthless.”

    Both Remain and Leave ask loaded questions in sponsored polls. Whilst that should be born in mind as AW frequently tells us with such questions.However IMO, it does not make the answers worthless, except for those who are totally blinkered. I would suggest those who responded to the poll gave an honest answer to the question asked.

  32. CIM – you spectacularly miss the point. To such a margin it must be deliberate.. Begum was fully 5 years older than the Bulger killers who were deemed responsible for their actions. If she isn’t responsible for her choices then they can’t be either can they. However if they are responsible for their choices and actions then she must be.

    She chose the life she is currently leading. We should honour her choice. I see a further two UK Jihadi breeding machines have also now been stripped of their citizenship as well. Another two the RAF missed – there should be Defence questions in the House about shoddy bombing. Those smart bombs cost a fortune and as a tax-payer I expect value for money.

    Long may it continue.

  33. @ MATT126 – “TIG eating into the Tory VI more than we would have initially expected” ?!?!

    You can’t just see a -2 in one box and a + in another box and assume that the “flow” has gone that way.

    Try looking at p12 in the tabs:
    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Brexit-Express-Poll-March-2019_updated3.pdf

    Likely to vote but still with DKs (n=1,771) TIGs get 105 (6%). That 6% is split:

    CON 21 (1.2%)
    LAB 47 (2.7%)
    LDEM 17 (1.0%)
    Other (includes UKIP) 11 (0.6%)
    DNV (0.3%)

    The x-breaks are v.small so MoE issues are huge but across several polls were seeing a few things:

    1/ LAB are losing most to TIG (in absolute and relative terms)
    2/ LDEM (smaller to begin with of course) and CON are losing about same absolute amount of VI as TIG (which in relative terms is more damaging for LDEM)
    3/ Some folks might be confused about the difference between Independ”ent” and Independ”ence”

    Also note in terms of “seats” is impossible to predict what TIG’s impact will be. If they try to stand candidates in every seat with no “pacts” they’ll probably net help CON due to the FPTP system.

    Looking at there nebulous “statements” on policy they look pretty close to LDEM at the moment and a merger or “pact” would make sense if they understand how FPTP works!

  34. @ ALEC – On Planet Remain do they have an HMG that enacts the policies of the opposition parties?

    Is May about to renationalise the railways, remove student tuition fees and “democratise” private enterprise??

    However, I agree you 3 point plan – sounds a breeze right, so I hope this time Remain MPs get some of the “blame” for voting her deal down.

  35. JIM JAM

    May I suggest -declaring someone reasonable & measured against the sole criteria that they agree with your point of view is patronising to them & does nothing to support your position.

  36. The Brexit Party – Statement of Independence

    https://www.theindependent.group/statement

    All sounds great, especially the final point:

    “Power should be devolved to the most appropriate level,”

    Hang on a minute, this is TIG not BXP ?!? Perhaps this part explains why TIG are picking up some “Leave” VI??

    The Independent Group with a Statement of Independence :-) :-)

  37. Colin – I think you know I don’t mean that I mean ROC posters who, like me as an LOC one, are prepared to be critical of the party of choice.

    As I say, when ROC posters who I disagree with feel so strongly about an issue I pause for though longer as I wonder if I am missing something.

  38. ADW

    I hope you win the Darwin Prize soon.

  39. ADW

    New low for the site. Well done.

    Bar wasn’t even that high.

  40. Trevor

    You could be right with your 1:50 pm points.

    However if you go through the number of questions and the sample size, you will see that the degree of freedom is much too high to make a conclusion.

    I don’t have any problem with your argument or logic – just the use of data is a problem (but it’s the polling company’s fault).

  41. “Some views of young people – https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/09/new-young-voters-want-peoples-vote-strongly-remain-survey
    Almost wipes out the leave majority entirely on it’s own, even before we consider any switchers and any deaths amongst the aging leave cohort from 2016. ”

    My ‘back of an envelope’ figures show that the combination of new voters being around 85:15 Remainers, and the Grim Reaper taking Leavers at around 65:35 would be just enough to swing the 1.3 Million net votes to level out a new Referendum.

    But given that polling is averaging at 53:47 to Remain at the moment, it appears that the movement among existing voters is he larger factor. One way of looking at is that the apparent 5 point ‘swing’ since June 2016 may be made up of 2 points caused by age demographics and 3 points of movement in the 2016 electorate.

  42. @David Colby

    David, I’m no spring chicken either – 66 in fact. I can remember as a child, in London, seeing signs outside pubs or boarding houses saying ‘no coloureds, no Irish’. I can remember asking my mum what it meant

    . Maybe someone needs to ask Diane Abbott if she would prefer to be called “a black woman” or “a coloured woman”. Or maybe Diane should just be grateful that a white woman was speaking in her defence?

  43. And as we have just celebrated International Women’s Day:

    There would have been Family Planning Clinics in the Isis-held territories which, if she had been responsible, the Begum girl could have made use of.

    And having babies in a war zone – and therefore being responsible for their deaths – means that she should be brought home and tried for infanticide.

  44. After all, we are talking about three British subjects.

  45. @Nick P

    I do keep visiting the site because there are posts that I read and people whose views I respect.

    It means you have to wade through dross sometimes.

  46. @ James E

    “But given that polling is averaging at 53:47 to Remain at the moment, it appears that the movement among existing voters is he larger factor.”

    Your conclusions seem reasonable. I think the ComRes tabs (as posted by others above) are quite interesting on this. Probably best to compare page 36 and 40. On page 36 they get the original Leave/Remain percentages close to the actual result, so it should be a good guide to the genuine voting, and it’s broken down by age groups. On page 40 you can see the swing to remain, again broken down by age group. Interestingly, it looks like both Leave and Remain have gone up in most age-groups, though far more strongly to remain in the (say) under 50s. The big factor is the ‘did not votes’ going predominantly to remain. So it really would depend on whether those people did actually turn out in another vote, the vast majority of the rest of the population haven’t really changed their minds much, it seems.

    (To be honest, I was reluctant to post today, as I find many of the recent exchanges too angry and unconsidered, and often just pure trolling. On the Begum case, I though Neil A’s quite early contribution to be very thoughful, and many of the posts since have merely cheapened the ‘conversation’, as far as I can see.)

  47. The comres poll in effect asks if people want Theresa May’s deal or no deal, which is about as useful as asking Theresa May’s deal or remain. Indeed

  48. The comres poll in effect asks if people want Theresa May’s deal or no deal, which is about as useful as asking Theresa May’s deal or remain. Indeed

  49. The comres poll in effect asks if people want Theresa May’s deal or no deal, which is about as useful as asking Theresa May’s deal or remain. Indeed

  50. The comres poll in effect asks if people want Theresa May’s deal or no deal, which is about as useful as asking Theresa May’s deal or remain. Indeed

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