There are two new voting intention polls in the Sunday papers, tackling the issue of measuring TIG support in different ways…

Deltapoll for the Mail on Sunday have standard voting intentions of CON 43%, LAB 36%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 5%. Respondents were then asked how they would vote if The Independent Group put up candidates at the next election – voting intention under those circumstances switches to CON 39% (four points lower), LAB 31%(five points lower), TIF 11%, LDEM 5%(one point lower). The implication is that the Independent Group are taking some support from both Labour and Conservative though, as we saw with the YouGov poll earlier in the week, it’s not necessarily as simple as a direct transfer – part of the difference may well be people saying don’t know. Fieldwork was between Thurs and Saturday, full results are here.

Opinium for the Observer meanwhile only asked their standard voting intention question, but have begun including TIG in that. This flags up an interesting dilemma for polling companies. The Independent Group are obviously not a political party. While the widespread expectation is that at some point in the future they will become a political party, they aren’t registered as one yet, and aren’t putting up candidates yet. This means that most polling companies are asking hypothetical questions about the level of support they would get if they did stand, but are not currently including them in standard voting questions.

Opinium however are offering them as a current option – presumably their thinking is that it’s only a matter of time before they register and if poll respondents’ intention is already to vote for them when they do, they should register it. The approach Opinium has taken will clearly be the correct way to do it once the TIG do evolve into a political party, the question is whether it’s too early to do it now. Either way, for what it’s worth Opinium’s first polling figures with TIG included as an option are CON 40%(+3), LAB 32%(-5), LDEM 5%(-3), TIG 6%(+6), UKIP 7%(nc). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday, and changes are from a week ago. Full results are here.

To be complete, as well as the SkyData and Survation polls I’ve already written about here, which showed TIG support at 10% and 8% respectively, there was also a YouGov poll midweek. That found standard topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10% and hypothetical figures of CON 38%, LAB 26%, LDEM 7%, TIG 14% (full write up is here. Overall that means, depending on the different questions asked and approaches taken, the initial level of support for the TIG seems to be between 6% and 14%.


1,929 Responses to “Latest voting intention polls & measuring potential TIG support”

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  1. First?

  2. No meaningful vote this week.

    https://news.yahoo.com/another-delay-britains-may-promises-brexit-vote-parliament-132148035–business.html

    Surely MPs need to vote this week to stop no deal, if that’s the plan.

    March 12th is much too late.

  3. Looks like the Tories are doing nicely and making some healthy gains off the back of TIG, which would suggest May’s handling of Brexit is going down pretty well with the public, despite the press.

  4. SSSimon: Looks like the Tories are doing nicely and making some healthy gains off the back of TIG, which would suggest May’s handling of Brexit is going down pretty well with the public, despite the press.

    There’s iron pyrites in them thar hills.

  5. OLDNAT

    “Sorry can’t resist …. apparently there is a broken down chariot in Cardiff City centre!!!!”

    Despite my disappointment yesterday I had to smile at that.

    Never mind, the Ladies Chariot is sailing along through Wales celebrating a 51-12 win. To be fair to Wales, they did stop the English ladies scoring a try for 20 minutes in the second half!!

  6. SSSIMON

    “Looks like the Tories are doing nicely and making some healthy gains off the back of TIG, which would suggest May’s handling of Brexit is going down pretty well with the public, despite the press”

    If you look at the detailed questions on Brexit in the two polls i do not think they support that view, at least not totally.

  7. @CMJ – this is where the UK constitution is completely defective.

    The government has total control of the parliamentary schedule, and it’s clear that the PM is going against the democratic will of the HoC and the public by maintaining the idea of a no deal exit, but she is able to stifle debate and delay votes until barely 400 hours before the deadline.

    No other system of government would tolerate such an abuse of democratic power, and while there are quite a few good things about our constitutional settlement, the fact that the sitting government can simply duck debating the biggest constitutional and economic decision we’ve needed to make in the last five decades is a glaring problem.

  8. @cmj and alec

    I think – although I am not sure – that May will still need to make a statement on Tuesday and put an amendable motion ( but not the meaningful vote take 2 ) before the House which is the opportunity for the House to vote on Letwin/ Cooper.

    It is nonetheless a terrible indictment of the UK government and Parliament.

  9. @ Jim Jam – in response to your question on the last thread, I think it was only Heidi Allen who said it officially, but would guess no-one there would want a GE at this stage.

  10. Looks like the loss of support in the post-tig polls may be finally moving Labour towards backing a People’s Vote

  11. “The approach Opinium has taken will clearly be the correct way to do it once the TIG do evolve into a political party”

    Though isn’t there still a decision to be made about whether to prompt for them on the first-round voting question or just include them under “others”? – I remember that being quite a big difference in how UKIP was handled by polling companies, and I’m not sure which way ended up being more accurate.

  12. ALEC, The government has total control of the parliamentary schedule, and it’s clear that the PM is going against the democratic will of the HoC and the public by maintaining the idea of a no deal exit,

    And Parliament in turn is doing it’s damndest to overturn the democratic will of the people as expressed in the Referendum. And that’s before we get to the fact that amongst those who support Leave, No Deal is the most favoured option.

  13. Marr interview with Watson was terrific. Felt like “big moment”.

    His interview with Gove just exposed the shambles in the Government on Brexit.

    wtf is TM playing at?

    There is only one sensible solution to this now imo-Ref2-WD :PD-or REmain. A50 extension with the sole purpose of setting up Ref2

  14. @ADW – “And Parliament in turn is doing it’s damndest to overturn the democratic will of the people as expressed in the Referendum.”

    The ‘as expressed in the Referendum’ was just as well. As expressed in other ways, and through parliament, we don’t want a no deal and now we don’t actually want to leave at all.

    “And that’s before we get to the fact that amongst those who support Leave, No Deal is the most favoured option.”

    And that’s even less relevant. No deal is a minority desire. You need to accept that. You can’t just redraw the electorate to suite your point.

  15. @Hireton – yes I think you are correct. May needs to table a motion by the 12th, which can be amended. We could still see a no deal ruled out this week.

    That is really what we need – to get the most idiotic option off the table, and start to get the grown ups explore the realistic options.

  16. @Colin – “There is only one sensible solution to this now imo-Ref2-WD :PD-or REmain. A50 extension with the sole purpose of setting up Ref2”

    I think that is absolutely correct. The fear of ‘betrayal’ is grossly overdone. Once we have a deal approved, subject to referendum, vs remain choice, parliament will have done it’s job and delivered Brexit, subject to confirmation of the people.

    At this point, for about ten minutes lots of people will scream outrage, and then we’ll start the campaign. There will be two outcomes. Either we leave the EU with the best deal May could manage, thus satisfying the unspecific wishes of leavers in the first referendum.

    Or alternatively, the majority of the country will want to remain in the EU as we are now. No complaints from anyone about that – it would be the will of the people. It would be quite funny seeing democrats argue against that.

    If anyone is still unhappy and believes that leavers have been betrayed, then go away and campaign for another referendum. This time, be honest, and state that you want to leave without a deal, and see how far that campaign gets.

  17. @ ALEC (last thread) – ?!?!

    You reposted your comment that clearly said WILL not COULD so you clearly do not understand that difference (ie you still believe in static models predicting future outcomes)

    Perhaps consider your revisionist view on Osborne nailing the GDP forecast and you’ll see the error in your thinking!
    (ie the static model approach is “fatally flawed” – your own term)

    Anyway, 5% of raw milk market can be absorbed in the domestic supply chain – if you look at the historical data 5% is “noise” within historic production (or what polling folks might consider MoE). In the last 15yrs UK production has averaged about 14bn litres with a range of 2bn litres

    https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-information/farming-data/milk-yield/average-milk-yield/#.XHLNViMS8b0

    The “market” outcome would work better if HMG assisted and the supply chain had more time to adjust (both possible 18mths ago, much harder now – as I said in my original post).

    I’m happy to accept there will now be short-term disruption – my point is HMG can still “assist” the market clearing process (ie buyers and sellers matching throughout the supply chain). The extreme option of which is buying up excess capacity at previous market prices (I was joking about pouring it down the drain).

    Elsewhere, you said we could convert excess raw milk to dried milk, not me. You’re now disagreeing with yourself.

    As we’ve discussed before, major processing companies like ARLA are not cows. Processing factories operate machines run by humans and hence can operate at extra capacity (ie can adjust to supply and demand changes in the market place quicker than “growing” or slaughtering cows)

    However, left to simple market forces then at least you’ll have to agree the excess supply of raw milk will mean prices DROP, not rise (or does supply and demand work differently on Planet Remain?)

  18. @ ADW (ALEC) – We could always, you know, check a recent poll given this is a polling forum!

    Pick any you like but let’s go with Opinium, V104

    Leave EU with “No Deal”: 41
    Delay A50 and hold public vote[1]: 41
    DK 18

    So hardly a minority view then!

    However, May is leader of CON and PM so let’s check the CON x-break:

    No Deal: 65
    Delay, new vote: 25
    DK 11

    So that would be a majority view then – quite a large one at that!

    It is baffling why some folks can’t accept polling – on a polling forum!!

    [1] They state that in vague terms, others give a range of options that reduce the “Remain” new ref.

  19. Had a look at the Deltapoll tables and although it’s only a sample of ninety or so the contrast between Scotland an the resf the UK sems if anything to be widening.

    As it’s a subsample it is only indicative but the biggest losers from the TIG development seem be Labour and the LibDems with the SNP and Tories benefitting. Equally if Corbyn was replaced although Labour would gain ground on the Tories the SNP would still get a boost!

    in an election where TIG was to stand it is the LibDems who would arguably be hurt worst.

    oh and I couldn’t help noticing that by a good margin the Scottish front runner for leader of the TIG’s on 11% id Gary Lineker!!!

    so if they are looking for a leader who’ll give them Crisp Presentation they know who to get!

    Peter.

  20. ADW

    “And Parliament in turn is doing it’s damndest to overturn the democratic will of the people as expressed in the Referendum. And that’s before we get to the fact that amongst those who support Leave, No Deal is the most favoured option.”

    Indeed as confirmed by constituencies.

  21. Alec

    ” to get the most idiotic option off the table, and start to get the grown ups explore the realistic options.”

    What rubbish, leaving on WTO terms is a realistic option and still the most likely in my view. Whatever happens in Parliament at the moment I don’t think it can be stopped unless May want’s to do so.

  22. @Colin

    “There is only one sensible solution to this now imo-Ref2-WD :PD-or REmain. A50 extension with the sole purpose of setting up Ref2”

    No, no, no.

    It should simply be a two stage referendum on the deal. No default option.

    If the deal is rejected, another referendum No Deal vs Remain.

    Anything else is rigged. Not that anyone with any sense will have a referendum!

  23. JiB

    “Anything else is rigged”.

    Every binary referendum is “rigged”, simply because some options have been excluded in order to reduce the choice to two.

    If there were to be another referendum on the EU, you just want it to be “rigged” in accordance with your preferred binary question.

  24. JiB

    I disagree.

    Leave on the Terms negotiated-or Remain ,are the two relevant options.

  25. No Oldnat. My hypothetical qituation gives all options a fair hearing.

    Deal vs Remain is not that, and would poison politics irretrievably in this country. It would also completely destroy the Tories, and they couldn’t have that….

  26. @Colin

    “Leave on the Terms negotiated-or Remain ,are the two relevant options.”

    No they are not.

    Leaving with no deal is an option, even if it is a mad self destruction option.

    I worry about the arrogant duplicity of Remainers, I really do!

  27. Peston on May’s strategy

    https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2284797988511600/

    The PM has chosen 12 March for two reasons.
    First the date is before the day scheduled by the Cooper Letwin plan for a commons vote on legislation to delay Brexit.
    So in theory, MPs would be voting on her deal knowing that if they reject it, they could force her to return to Brussels to beg EU leaders to delay the moment we leave the EU.
    Now this will be seen by some Brexiters as the prime minister adopting the Machiavelli playbook.
    Because the PM will in essence be saying to her Brexiter critics in the ERG “back my deal or risk seeing Brexit postponed, perhaps forever”.
    She will be defining the choice as her Brexit or a delayed Brexit that could morph into no Brexit – which is what Robbins also swaggered about in that Brussels bar.
    Her hope is only a few Tory Brexiters would ultimately take the risk of Brexit never happening and that most would at the last vote even for her reviled Withdrawal Agreement.
    Of course for this helpful moment of truth to materialise for May, MPs would have to do what the PM claims she does not want them to do, which is to vote for the Cooper Letwin amendment on Wednesday that would then put legislation to delay Brexit to Parliament.
    Hilariously, the PM does not actually want to delay Brexit – but she would like MPs to prepare the ground for a delay to Brexit, so that she can use this as a rod to beat the ERG.
    All of which creates big dilemmas for Labour and other opposition parties when deciding on whether to back the Cooper Letwin amendment this week – in that in doing so they would improve the chances of the PM ultimately securing parliamentary backing for her deal, which is a deal they hate.
    In other words the PM has set up Wednesday’s vote on Cooper Letwin as of massive historic importance.
    Because of course if Cooper Letwin flops, the rejection of her reworked deal on 12 March would see no-deal Brexit as the default option, rather than Brexit delay or no Brexit.
    And that brings me to the second reason why 12 March is the last felicitous date for her: it is the eve of the Chancellor’s spring statement. That statement would take on a whole new significance if her deal was voted down and we faced the economic shock of a no-deal Brexit – and Philip Hammond would presumably use it to point towards an emergency budget shortly after, to cushion the expected blow to our prosperity from that earthquake of a démarche.
    So for an orderly negotiated Brexit, 12 March is the ides – the day it lives or dies, one way or another.

    Who knows? He might even be right in this analysis.

  28. @alec

    “No other system of government would tolerate such an abuse of democratic power”

    Kind of, parliament has had a number of opportunities to seize control but has declined to do so, preferring to taste the easy option of waiting for the next time.

  29. JiB

    “My hypothetical situation gives all options a fair hearing.”

    It doesn’t even approach including all the options!

  30. Seems the EU want to replace the transition period, with the UK actually remaining in the EU until 2021.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/brexit-could-be-delayed-until-2021-eu-sources-reveal

  31. If I’m reading a Guardian report correctly then Brussels are ready to propose extending the WA to the end of 2021 and doing the trade negotiation in tandem thus solving the Irish backstop. Isn’t this what the UK government wanted to do in the first place but Brussels said no, the WA has to be agreed first?

  32. @Alec and Colin

    I couldn’t agree with you more about what is the most sensible option. Sadly, I don’t think that it is likely.

    May can get her deal through in two ways a) by getting no deal off the table and thus giving the ERG nowhere to go b) by leaving No deal on the table and frightening Labour into supporting her deal. I suspect that she would prefer a) but does not want to take the responsibility of taking no deal off and thus wants someone else to do it for her. She is prepared to wait for this to happen. If this gamble fails she can turn to the ‘frighten labour’ option.

    Personally I think this is completely appalling behaviour, but I guess there are some who would say she is doing her job as she conceives it. The risk is she miscalculates. So my guess of the current chances are May deal 50%, No deal 30%, referendum 20%. The horrifying thing is that I have absolutely no idea of the chances, and my guess is that we are being led by someone who has no idea either.

  33. @trevors – this is what I find most sad about the Brexit debate.

    I told you that the UK Food and Drink Association members have indicated that they believe – BASED ON WHAT THE GOVERNMENT HAS TOLD THEM WILL HAPPEN – that 10% of them will go bankrupt within 6 weeks of a hard Brexit, and 25% of food exporters think they will go bankrupt.

    Now – that information could be wrong. They could be overly pessimistic, the government might be planning support measures that they haven’t told industry about. But based on what they’ve been told by HMG – which we have to assume includes all the mitigating measures – this is the fact of what the industry thinks.

    Instead of simply accepting there is a potentially very big problem, you then go off on one about ‘could’ or ‘will’ – completely pointless – we’re dealing here with what the industry expects, with government aid already factored in.

    You then glibly state that a major agricultural sector can absorb a loss of 5% of it’s market overnight as ‘noise’. It can’t, and it really isn’t – it’s a twentieth of their market. Production of cheese, butter extra storage etc can be ramped up – but not by March 30thm as the ADHB explain. Dried milk is an option, but dried milk sales will also be hit in a hard Brexit, as sales of this to the EU will attract tariffs. production will be cut, prices will fall, and an already loss making industry will see contraction. Either that, of taxpayers stump up a lot more subsidy.

    I’m not talking about a static model – in dairy, everything is connected, and under a hard Brexit, several factors compound to make that 5% a real problem. Increasing subsidy is a dynamic response – but that still costs us.

    With you, no warnings from the people doing this stuff is valid, everything can be glossed over, easy answers are trumped up – and none of them match with reality.

    Like many Brexiters, you think 5% loss is a small number. It’s smaller than 68%, but if the entire economy suffers from a 5% loss, we have one of the biggest recessions for the last several decades. Small numbers matter.

    You really do need to put the argumentative Trevor back in the box (like you did last week for a few days) and bring the prepared to learn Trevor out for a ride. You aren’t arguing against @Alec here – you are arguing against the entire food and drink industry, who are telling you that a hard deal would be a disaster for the sector.

  34. So it looks like brexit will be delayed, anything from 2 months to 21 months.

    That gives me more time to get the veg plots ready and the seedlings started.

    Phew.

  35. @Hireton

    With all due respect, that’s a rather pointless poll as it splits Leavers two ways.

    I know what’s perfectly reasonable in some people’s view, but it does illustrate the fact that a consensus position probably no longer exists.

    I expect May’s deal to pass zombie like. The deal that refused to die and just kept coming back to life.

  36. It is actually quite simple.

    Set A hard Brexit
    Set B soft Brexit
    Set C: remain

    If the distance of Set A and B is bigger than between Set B and C, Set B and C are subsets of the same set even if one has leave.

    If you want the nested decision making model, if Set A and Set C are simple. Set B would split depending on the prioritization of questions, like can I feed my child; which would dichotomise the answer.

    What’s so difficult in getting this?

  37. Hal,

    “That gives me more time to get the veg plots ready and the seedlings started.”

    To ripen just in time for the starving post Brexit hoards to descend on them like locust!!!!!

    Peter.

  38. Putting No Deal on the ballot paper ignores every lesson that Remainers and Leavers alike can take from Brexit. In particular, don’t put options on the ballot paper that politicians aren’t willing to implement and/or don’t have any idea how to do!

    I hate the idea of a 2nd referendum, but it’s better than No Deal. If May is unable to secure an acceptable (to the House of Commons) modification of the existing deal, then a Deal vs. Remain referendum is the best compromise. Most MPs are Remainers, but I’ve come to the conclusion that the current House of Commons would probably let May’s deal go through if it won a referendum, so the exercise wouldn’t be futile.

    For quite some time, I suspected that even winning a second referendum would be insufficient for us to actually Leave the EU (there’s always accusations of Russian interference that could be made…) which makes a second referendum into a fundamentally one-sided affair but I’ve changed my mind.

  39. Bantams,

    Looks promising. The EU are good at calibrating things (that’s why they tend to win second referendums…) and I’m becoming optimistic that a mutually satisfactory solution to the WA might be found. However, as I said above, I’d prefer a 2nd referendum to No Deal.

  40. I can completely understand TM delaying til 12 March for the simple reason that it puts a gun against the ERG’s collective heads. And that the EU are complicit in that. They both know that the earlier the vote, the more likely its rejected and ERG ask for more.

    It looks pretty darn likely that there is a clear majority in the HoC for extending A50 if no deal has been agreed, rather than leaving with no deal, so leaving the vote til late forces the ERG to accept, or run the real risk that Brexit doesn’t happen. Voting down her deal would therefore be a massive, massive gamble for them.

    Whether that will quite get the deal over the line or not isn’t clear. Based on the numbers from the first vote, she would need to convert all bar 13 of the DUP and Con MPs who didnt support her last time to voting for it (plus obviously any more Lab votes are a bonus). It seems intuitively unlikely that anyone who backed it before wouldnt back it on 12 March.

    The risk for her, or the wider Con party, is that the angst being caused leads to more MPs quitting before 12 March.

    My money is on:

    – another 2 or 3 Con MPs resigning the ship over the next couple weeks

    – the vote on 12 march approving a deal which consists of the previous deal + a (supposedly) legally binding letter stating what temporary means + further stuff on the process for evaluating Alternative Arrangements being built into the future relationship document

    – a short extension to A50 to pass legislation

    – a group of MPs telling TM on or around 30 March that unless she steps down then they’ll effectively block anything and everything in the commons. Means that they don’t need to wait til the 12 months is up to boot her out. I’m not sure that that is best for Con – better to have a cooling off period, however TM is alienating so many people (per Matthew Parris’ Times article) that I can’t see her colleagues tollerating her any longer than absolutely necessary.

    Adam

  41. Oh it should be hordes…shouldn’t it!

    Unless of course hordes are planning on hoarding!

    Peter.

  42. @ ON

    “Who knows? He might even be right in this analysis.”

    Peston’s analysis might be correct, but surely he must know the ides is the 15th March, not the 12th.

    Sorry, someone had to say it, it might as well be me.

  43. ALEC – The minority desire is to Remain. Leave won.

  44. ‘Set A hard Brexit
    Set B soft Brexit
    Set C: remain
    If the distance of Set A and B is bigger than between Set B and C, Set B and C are subsets of the same set even if one has leave.

    What’s so difficult in getting this?’

    When you put it like that – a lot! (Well, a lot of people including me will not understand what you are saying. Which is a pity as I suspect you are tackling the important issue of how any referendum should be worded or decided)

    In one sense soft and hard Brexiters are part of the same class – they both want to leave. In another sense they are not part of the same class since they want different things and they can’t have both, Assuming we are not able to rule out no deal we should in my view ask people

    1) please give your first vote to what you would most like to happen a) No deal b) May deal c) remain.

    2) If none of these get half or more of the first votes which would get your second vote?

    I suspect that on this method remain might just win on the first ballot while the May Deal would probably just get it on the second. I don’t, however, expect to be given the chance to find out.

  45. Trigguy

    Precision is always valuable, but Roman calendar precision was a little different from ours.

    “The Roman calendar was originally based on the first three phases of the moon, with days counted, not according to a concept of a week, but backward from lunar phases. The new moon was the day of the Kalends, the moon’s first quarter was the day of the Nones, and the Ides fell on the day of the full moon.”

    Both Peston and your good self are wrong in this case (though he, more than you). In March 2019, the full moon appears on 21 March (in both Rome and London).

    (Not that I knew all of that, till I looked it up! :-) )

  46. Laszlo
    Thanks for making everything so crystal clear. Send your analysis to the government, I’m sure it will help them sort things out.

  47. @Trevs

    Thanks for the link to the Opinium poll. The proportions are almost identical with those they got the previous time they asked the question.

    The question itself gives the option: “Delay Article 50 and hold a public vote on what to do next” As you will know I am keen on having a second vote but even I would hesitate before choosing this option – after all the vote might be between ‘No deal or May deal’ or ‘Should we delay and negotiate or remain’ or even between an enormous list of what we might do next. I am surprised as many as 41 per cent thought that worded this way it was a good idea.

    Obviously the lack of a clear notion of what a vote would be is a weakness in the public vote case, but that is a different issue.

  48. Trigguy

    Mind you, that 21 March is in the new-fangled Gregorian calendar. In the Julian calendar, the ides of March in 2019 would be 8 March.

    Naturally, I have excluded the sillier aspect of the Julian reforms in trying to make the ides, the central day of the month. Bloody modernists!

  49. @ ON

    This could spark a lengthy (and probably not very interesting) debate. The problem is that we no longer align our months to the phases of the moon, so the full moon can fall on any day. However, the Roman month was aligned to the moon, as much as it can be given the non-divisibility of the various cycles. So the ides was always on the 13th or 15th, depending on which month you were in (though I bet the moon sometimes inconveniently wasn’t full on the right day). March happened to be a long month with 31 days (as it still is today) and so the ides was the 15th.

    Now which view one should take about how to translate ides into the modern calendar is probably more a religious debate, and we have far too many of those already on here.

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