There are two new voting intention polls in the Sunday papers, tackling the issue of measuring TIG support in different ways…

Deltapoll for the Mail on Sunday have standard voting intentions of CON 43%, LAB 36%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 5%. Respondents were then asked how they would vote if The Independent Group put up candidates at the next election – voting intention under those circumstances switches to CON 39% (four points lower), LAB 31%(five points lower), TIF 11%, LDEM 5%(one point lower). The implication is that the Independent Group are taking some support from both Labour and Conservative though, as we saw with the YouGov poll earlier in the week, it’s not necessarily as simple as a direct transfer – part of the difference may well be people saying don’t know. Fieldwork was between Thurs and Saturday, full results are here.

Opinium for the Observer meanwhile only asked their standard voting intention question, but have begun including TIG in that. This flags up an interesting dilemma for polling companies. The Independent Group are obviously not a political party. While the widespread expectation is that at some point in the future they will become a political party, they aren’t registered as one yet, and aren’t putting up candidates yet. This means that most polling companies are asking hypothetical questions about the level of support they would get if they did stand, but are not currently including them in standard voting questions.

Opinium however are offering them as a current option – presumably their thinking is that it’s only a matter of time before they register and if poll respondents’ intention is already to vote for them when they do, they should register it. The approach Opinium has taken will clearly be the correct way to do it once the TIG do evolve into a political party, the question is whether it’s too early to do it now. Either way, for what it’s worth Opinium’s first polling figures with TIG included as an option are CON 40%(+3), LAB 32%(-5), LDEM 5%(-3), TIG 6%(+6), UKIP 7%(nc). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday, and changes are from a week ago. Full results are here.

To be complete, as well as the SkyData and Survation polls I’ve already written about here, which showed TIG support at 10% and 8% respectively, there was also a YouGov poll midweek. That found standard topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10% and hypothetical figures of CON 38%, LAB 26%, LDEM 7%, TIG 14% (full write up is here. Overall that means, depending on the different questions asked and approaches taken, the initial level of support for the TIG seems to be between 6% and 14%.


1,929 Responses to “Latest voting intention polls & measuring potential TIG support”

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  1. Just out of meeting with Chief Whip, IDS says there will be statement in Strasbourg at 9pm as well as in Commons – ‘reaching a point’ where there might be agreement and will ‘keep an open mind’ about whether Brexiteers can support it (Kuessenberg)

    If a Minister of the Crown does not assure the House that an agreement with the EU HAS been reached, then the terms of the WA Act for a meaningful decision will not have been met.

    Can. Kicked. Road.

  2. @hireton – it’s going to be interesting to see how significant this is, but the choreography suggests to me that there isn’t that much on the table, but it needs to look good to persuade a few MPs to peel away and grasp the fig leaf.

    i could be wrong mind, and the EU have granted a major concession, so let’s wait and see.

  3. EOTW

    “As opposed to the Brexit fantasy?”

    What Brexit fantasy?

  4. @ OLDNAT – Just read your Irish Times link which I note uses ALEC’s source. I do love tracing back “Chinese Whispers” to the root source ;)

    Anyway consider if Varadkar said:

    “Loads of UK businesses are coming to Ireland rather than France because we have a much lower level of corporation tax, other business taxes and an amazing scheme called SARP so high income earners pay naff all tax – they eat in restaurants etc so we get a bit of 2nd round effect taxes”

    Given many of EU26 want to harmonise tax, he isn’t going to say something like that is he – however the “private sector” is “aware” of the low taxes (and again careful not to make a song and dance about it!)

    For sure the other factors they mention are important. Many of those would fall under “minimum requirements” which multiple locations meet.

    Hence if say 5 locations meet the “min. requirement” short-list you then start looking at the bottom line of profits after tax and management/employee take home pay (although for sure where you fancy living for a few years comes into play as well)

    One of the reasons that perhaps less folks are choosing Frankfurt than expected is the “liveability” issue. Amsterdam doing quite well – thats not a bad place to live.
    I liked Tallinn a few years back but, back then at least, it did still struggle with some of the “min.requirement” issues despite a very attractive tax (or lack of) system.

  5. @ ALEC – Well we can all do “potentially”. That’s a pretty weak cop out, even by your standards.

    If you want to see some bonkers “potentially” from Arch-Gammonland then read some of the nonsense Economics For Free Trade pump out (a very biased Leave source)

    https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/

    I’ve done “potentially” myself in the past. Shall I redo the

    “If we never joined EU then we could have “potentially” grown by 0.5% extra per annum which would would mean UK economy would have been 20% bigger than it is and we would never have had to go through the process of leaving”

    Who is to say if that is right or wrong? It is “potentially” correct but we’ll never know as events didn’t turn out the way they might have. We could look at Swiss, US, Canada, etc to see how they did but again not the path we went down and every country is somewhat unique anyway.

    PS If you were to say McDonnell “potentially” becomes CoE then I’d fully accept “potential” for 100,000 “city” job losses number as plausible! Probably an under estimate :<

  6. However, it takes a special lack of understanding of how bank assets relate to GDP to state:

    “£800bn in bank assets is nearly 10% of the UK banking system….On a straight line comparison, the financial sector is responsible for around 6.5% of GDP, so that means we’ve “potentially” lost just over 0.5% of GDP on a permanent basis already.”

    Potentially highlighted

    Straight line comparison!?!? Thats a LOB and a ROFL :-) :-)

    (LOB = Load Of B..)

  7. @Colin I wonder what the usual suspects will do to assuage their YAHBOO needs after Brexit is all over?

    When do you expect it to be over?

  8. Irish Cabinet recalled for a meeting in 5 minutes time. RTE suggesting that they are to be briefed on “progress” to allow May to get the deal through HoC.

  9. @ The other Howard

    “As opposed to the Brexit fantasy?”

    “What Brexit fantasy?”

    That’s a good question, as there is a vast choice of absurd Brexit fantasies. This one from Daniel Hannon, Tory leader in the European Parliament, is one of the best.

    https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/

  10. Good evening all from a rather mild and breezy Winchester.

    It’s nice to be back after an extended winter break visiting relatives over in Astoria Oregon.

    Now back to polling.

    I’m not surprised a poll showed increasing public support for a no deal bolt from the EU. The EU and it’s draconian approach to democracy has left a bitter taste in the mouths of many British people.

    It’s not ideal to bolt without a deal but it would be better than being pegged to the EU like some sort of zit pocking out on its side.

    Yuck!!

  11. Peston’s “understanding” of this evening’s Brexit announcement –

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1105170277401542658

  12. #poking

  13. TREVOR WARNE
    However, it takes a special lack of understanding of how bank assets relate to GDP to state:

    “£800bn in bank assets is nearly 10% of the UK banking system….On a straight line comparison, the financial sector is responsible for around 6.5% of GDP, so that means we’ve “potentially” lost just over 0.5% of GDP on a permanent basis already.”

    Potentially highlighted

    Straight line comparison!?!? Thats a LOB and a ROFL :-) :-)

    (LOB = Load Of B..
    ________________

    The same happened during the Scottish indy ref and the supposed importance of the banking sector to Scotland and the pending doon & gloom that would follow a Tarten bolt from the UK., . They money grabbing thieves think we all owe them something.

    As far as I’m concerned they can take a hike.

  14. JAMES E your 6.46

    Looks perfectly reasonable scenario, better than most of the project fear ones.

    However I just go with my own views since this like so much else at the moment is just speculation.

  15. ToH

    “EOTW

    “As opposed to the Brexit fantasy?”

    What Brexit fantasy?”

    S/M?

  16. Alec @Trevors “– by the way – your 4.50pm post is complete nonsense. You’ve completely missed the point – but then you know that already, don’t you?
    The study has identified that 10% of city assets have already left the UK. Not threatened to, not Project Fear, not contingent on deal or no deal – already gone.
    Why you are mixing this up with jobs, heaven only knows, although it is worth while pointing out again that this study (from actual data from actual companies) predicts the jobs will follow the money.
    They also believe these transfers are a conservative estimate, and won’t be reversed. The UK is now a less trusted environment with less value for financial firms.
    I did try to advise you this morning that the simplest thing to do is just sometimes accept that the evidence has gone against you on a specific point. No harm done. We all get things wrong sometimes.
    I also predicted that you would throw out all kinds of spurious facts and figures, confuse the point, set up a straw man or twelve, misinterpret stuff, and generally throw as much typeface out there as possible in a standard @trevors attempt to distract. It’s what you do, and it fools no one.”

    Phew. If that’s your idea of “ nothing more to say” I’m glad you didn’t have something!!!

  17. I’m not going to express an opinion but since many did then just mentioning that YG did ask about

    “The baby of Shamima Begum..should, or should not have been brought back to the UK”

    Should 24
    Should Not 55
    DK 21

    Net “Should Not” 31

    There is a x-break difference but even LAB are net “Should not” at +4 (CON are +61)

    Gender, region, etc all plurality for “should not”, the only demographic that is net “Should” is 18-24 at +1.

    (on YG live)

  18. @Tthe other Howard

    In so far as he describes what would happen soon after a vote to leave, Hannan has been proved spectacularly wrong. Quite apart from predicting that the terms of our departure would be agreed in a year (as opposed to not being agreed after the best part of 3 years), and predicting that Denmark, the Netherlands and Ireland would all copy the UK by voting to leave too, he has the following to say about those wonderful new trade agreements we’d make:

    “During the first 12 months after the vote, Britain confirmed with the various countries that have trade deals with the EU that the same deals would continue. It also used that time to agree much more liberal terms with those states which had run up against EU protectionism, including India, China and Australia. These new treaties came into effect shortly after independence. Britain, like the EFTA countries, now combines global free trade with full participation in EU markets.”

  19. TOH
    ‘What Brexit fantasy?’

    One is the disinformation (I’m being polite) that all EU countries will have to join the Euro by 2020, a claim of Brexit Central, which has been passed on by Matthew Elliott (formerly of Vote Leave) and Esther McVey (although she has now deleted her tweet).

    Why, by the way, is Tim Dawson, of pro-Brexit Britain’s Future, unwilling to tell the BBC the source of funding for their advertising campaign?

  20. @ JAMES E – Some funny bits from Hannon. However, did you see the bit:

    “For the sake of administrative convenience, Brexit took effect formally on 1 July 2019”

    Written back on 21 Jun’16!! OK hardly Nostradamus and I’m sure 1-2 UKPR folks nailed that in their dreams but perhaps May is discussing that right now?

    24 June 2025 is still quite a few years away but if your up for a giggle then one politician did have a go at the:

    “Immediate economic impact of Leaving the EU”

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-treasury-analysis-the-immediate-economic-impact-of-leaving-the-eu

    He’s still turning out that “fantasy” for ES readers, possibly why London is still so “Remainy”?

    I still reread the Osborne “prediction” from time to time – but I doubt many Remainers do ;)

  21. @ Allan Christie

    “It’s not ideal to bolt without a deal but it would be better than being pegged to the EU like some sort of zit poking out on its side.”

    Interesting simile. Indeed, I wouldn’t be surprised if many of the rEU nations do feel like UK is a zit which they’ll be glad to be rid of. I’m just surprised that that a proud UK citizen would describe the UK in that way. Well, if you like, your words, not mine.

  22. While (like everyone else) I have no clue what’s going to actually happen, I’ll speculate (copyright ToH) as to what’s going to happen.

    1. Tonight’s manoeuvres in the dark will result in a small majority in HoC approving May’s deal.

    2. A short extension to the A50 process will be announced, to get the necessary UK legislation through

    3. May will announce she is standing down as Tory leader in May, with a proposal that, when a new leader is in place, there should be a UK GE to select the new Government to negotiate the future relationship with the EU, during the 2 year transition period.

    4, The Scottish Parliament will continue to ask for a section 30 order for a new indy referendum (without any real hope of getting that). SNP, SGP will secretly be happy with a refusal from UK, as they bounce alternatives through the courts. The wider Yes movement will be duly infuriated and recruit more adherents.

    5. Unless it’s cancelled by Westminster (not a remote possibility) the 2021 Holyrood election will be fought on an independence/UK union basis.

  23. The Trevors,
    “However, consider companies that wish to expand service exports from UK to the fastest growing countries in the World – where a Comprehensive trade deal (“mixed” in EC language) would mean they could “sell” from UK, with higher IP protection rather than have to “sell” locally often with IP risk (in many cases they currently won’t do the latter)”

    Thats fascinating Trevor, but how would the Uk get such a trade deal?

    “Now I’m not making predictions that is what will happen”

    You arent? Then why are you writing total fantasy on a serious discussion board?

    The problem with Brexit is that the leave campaign has been fantasy and illusion and wishfull thinking from the very start.

    “…increasingly isolanisionist EU…”
    Hmm. Isnt the EU actually one of the bst connected trading organisations in the world? The assertion is kinda…wrong?

    You really have the wrong end the telescope. The EU is a guaranteed home market, with more clout to get good deals than the UK. But you know that.

  24. @ TW

    “24 June 2025 is still quite a few years away…”

    Have a read of those part of Hannon’s prediction which refer to the first few years after the 2016 vote, and to the favourable trading terms which he expected the UK to be able to quickly agree and enjoy with the EU. Those much-improved trading terms with both India and China were supposed to be agreed sometime back in 2017 in his Brexit fantasy. And financial services are one of the many industries set to boom…

  25. We didn’t get to 2000 this time guys…….New thread:)

  26. The Trevors,
    ““London” needs to protect and promote it’s strengths”

    Lets see:
    1 )its part of the the EU and can sell banking services throughout.
    2) As a member, the Uk can veto rule changes which might disadvantage London.
    3) As London is part of the EU, the EU commission must assist London whenever it can. Similarly the ECB bailed out UK banks in 2008 on an equal basis to those in other members. (so they got two bailouts)

    The Other Howard,
    “Much more interested in real history,”

    The quote was something like, ‘being king of Scotland was the most dangerous job in europe. ‘ It usually ended badly for the incumbent.

    Alec,
    “Looks like we are at the bit of the choreography where PM flies”

    Awfully theatrically staged, isnt it?

    ” The UK is now a less trusted environment with less value for financial firms. ”

    So one of the aims of Brexit has been achieved…

  27. @ The other Howard

    The views of those who stated that Remaining after a second referendum was “an acceptable compromise” were not reflected at all in the way you presented the poll’s findings.

    I have to say I cannot see the point in people posting cherry-picked or questionable polling figures on this site: they inevitable get found out .The Sunday Telegraph reporting cited above by Anthony Wells is an obvious case in point where you and others initially hailed the polling as a swing in the public mood towards their views.

  28. Danny

    Anyone following Bernard Jenkin wouldn’t exactly be rushing to deal with any UK government

  29. Com Res Poll
    Lab 35
    Con 34
    LibDem 8
    TIG 7
    UKIP 6

    EU
    Stay in EU and abandon process to leave 35% (C14/L51/LD73)
    Leave on WTO 24% (C42/L14/LD8)
    Leave with a new deal negotiated between EU and UK 14%
    Theresa May Deal 12% (C20/Lab7/LD8)

    An interesting fact. TIG have higher percentage wanting to leave on WTO than Labour or Lib Dem. Seems that some might be getting TIG confused with UKIP or think that the name “independent Group” means they are pro brexit.

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