Today we’ve had the first two polls asking people about whether they’d support The Independent Group were they to stand candidates.

Survation in the Daily Mail asked how people would vote if there was “a new centrist party opposed to Brexit”, producing voting intention figures of CON 39%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, “New centrist party” 8%, UKIP 5%. In comparison, the normal voting intention figures in the poll were CON 40%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%, suggesting the new party could take support from both Labour and Conservative, though it would largely take votes from the Liberal Democrats. Tables are here.

SkyData, who do not typically publish voting intention figures, asked how people would vote if the “new Independent Group of former Labour MPs” were standing, and found voting intention figures of CON 32%, LAB 26%, TIG 10%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 6%. We don’t have standard voting intention figures to compare here, but on the face of it, it also looks as if support is coming from both Labour and Conservative, though the level of Lib Dem support appears to be holding up better than in the Survation poll. Note that the lower figures overall appear to be because of an unusually high figure for “others” (possibly because SkyData do not offer respondents the ability to answer don’t know). Tables are here.

These polls are, of course, still rather hypothetical. “The Independent Group” is not a political party yet (assuming, that it ever becomes one). It doesn’t formally have a leader yet, or any policies. We don’t yet know how it will co-exist with the Liberal Democrats. As of Tuesday night it only has former Labour MPs, though the rumourmill expects some Conservative MPs to join sooner rather than later.

Nevertheless, it is more “real” than the typical hypothetical polls asking about imaginary centrist parties. Respondents do at least have some names, faces and context to base it upon, and it gives us a baseline of support. We won’t really know for sure until (and unless) the Independent Group transform into a proper party and is just another option in standard voting intention polls.


511 Responses to “Survation and SkyData polls on the Independent Group”

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  1. Mc Donagh is on my list, lucky she did not lose her seat over expenses.

    None of the others are probables imo but I suppose are possibles.

    North-East MPs (apart from maybe Anna Turley which goes beyond left/right split) are under serious pressure from their local parties so have less incentive to jump on their terms so to speak. (Wilson and McKinnell).

    I like Pat McFadden even when I disagree with him as he is very clear, informed and articulate.

    The Economic Policy/PV (as opposed to those mainly leaving due to anti-Semitism) leavers bother me a little as I don’t like to see anyone leave but I think their platforms are perhaps an unbridgeable amount away from what is now mainstream LP thinking. Mc Fadden would be more of a loss imo and I would be surprised and disappointed if he felt closer to Anna Soubrey than John McDonnell on Economic matters.

  2. Jim Jam

    “North-East MPs” are mainly Tories.

    Oh! You mean the North-East of your polity. Silly me,

  3. Opinium changes from previous

    LAB (-5)
    LD (-3)
    CON (+3)
    TIG 6%

    Crossbreak for Scotland will be worth a look, to see if it confirms little effect as in other recent polls, or not.

  4. @ Alec – lets make it a simple question.

    If HMG was to buy all the raw milk we currently export to EU and just pour it down the drain, how much would that cost – in pounds per annum.

    An absurd example but let’s put a number on this “static” view of yours.

  5. For those keeping an eye on Irish politics – latest Red C poll

    Fine Gael 31 (-1)
    Fianna Fáil 24 (+2)
    Sinn Féin 18 (+5)
    Independents 15 (+1)
    Labour 5 (-1)
    Ind. Alliance 2 (-3)
    Greens 2 (-1)
    SocDems 2 (-)
    Sol-PBP 1 (-1)
    Renua < 1 (-)
    Aontú < 1

  6. Tonight’s poll ends any idea that going for a general election would be good for Labour. In any rational world that would mean moving on to supporting a People’s Vote.

    However it could be that Corbyn will persist with attempting to get a general election as long as he is sure it isn’t going to happen. It might be enough to get him over the brexit finishing line without having to concede the PV.

  7. Trevor_Borg

    “If HMG was to buy all the raw milk we currently export to EU and just pour it down the drain, how much would that cost – in pounds per annum.”

    Simple and absurd, as you accurately describe your own question.

    It’s a bit like those who equate fishing and stock farming.

    Fisher Brexiteers simply expect to catch less fish (and have their existing large level of subsidy increased).

    Stock farmers can only reduce their overheads by slaughtering a large proportion of the stock.

  8. HAL

    Nah-Emily says bring it on :-

    “The shadow foreign secretary has said a group of MPs who left Labour “betrayed” their seats and claimed her party would “crush them” in by-elections.”

    BBC

  9. Colin,

    Yes, she wants by-elections but did not mention a general election.

  10. Re Opinium Poll

    Still early days of course, but in these unpredictable times, it’s good to see that some things seem to be playing out exactly as expected. Just as with the SDP, the TIG group are nicely splitting the non-Tory vote. Now who didn’t see that coming? Precisely no one. Champagne in Tory HQ I should think.

    Indeed, maybe the departure of Soubry and co has also managed to boost the Tory vote too. Of course we should wait for more polls, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the story for a few weeks, at least until Brexit day.

  11. @ oldnat – nothing to do with overheads, its about how hmg can mitigate the impact of a no deal brexit as uk farming sector adjusts to a post brexit scenario

    ps no idea why your gone on the fish tangent. do you know the difference between a fish and a cow?

    have you ever tried milking a fish?

    have cows moved to different parts of their field due to rises in grass temperature?

  12. Another poll tonight, Delta this time, another big Tory lead:

    Westminster voting intention (ft. TIG):

    CON: 39%
    LAB: 31%
    TIG: 11%
    LDEM: 5%
    UKIP: 4%

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 21 – 22 Feb

  13. Trevor Warne

    “have you ever tried milking a fish? ”

    It’s the term for extracting eggs or sperm from a live fish – so yes I have. Though I have more experience in picking out herring sperm sacs from the fish guts. They are used for the highest quality paints.

  14. Bantams

    More on that Deltapoll from MoS

    But without Corbyn as Labour leader…

    LAB: 40
    CON: 37
    TIG: 7
    LIB: 6
    UKIP: 3

  15. The TIG’s have certainly messed polling up so we have no idea now General Election would pan out:
    1) Would they contest every seat?
    2) Would they be in a pact with the LIB DEMS. Would vote share be TIG+LIB Dem
    3) Although Labour have lost support would existing MP’s who are seen as moderate no lose support to the TIG’s
    4) In What areas are they picking up support. London/ South / South West / University cities. Would Labour be relatively unaffected up North?

  16. So if Keir Starmer/ Yvette Cooper became Labour Leader they would be on for a Majority?

  17. Matt126

    “Would Labour be relatively unaffected up North?”

    They don’t have much support in the North as it is, and previous polls have suggested little support for TIG elsewhere in Scotland either.

    Oh! You were just talking about your own polity.

  18. “TREVOR WARNE
    @ Alec – lets make it a simple question.

    If HMG was to buy all the raw milk we currently export to EU and just pour it down the drain, how much would that cost – in pounds per annum.”

    Would you have to pay the people pouring it down drains? How much – and how long might that take and what do you envisage it costing? There might also be problems with the drains to sort out…

    This is clearly a serious topic so we need serious, costed answers.

  19. @Trevors – “@ Alec – your cherry picking and still failing to understand the numbers.”

    Understand the numbers perfectly well thanks. And I’m not cherry picking – you brought up buying more cheddar from NI, and I just pointed out that this can’t happen on March 30th as they use RoI processing. I don’t know why you brought cherries into this.

    “P.S.Still waiting for you to substantiate your earlier comments on bankruptcies – did you make that up or too embarrassed to show where you got that info from?”

    No. I cited the source when I first posted this – you must have missed that? Fortunately, the BBC have the 12th February 2019 live interview from Ian Wright, CEO of the UK Food and Drink Federation, available online, so you can listen to it yourself – https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p070mr65

  20. Would it be fair to say that, if the Opinium fieldwork was 20-22 Feb, a lot of it may well have been on Wednesday and some of those respondents may not have been aware of the Tory defections, whereas every respondent probably knew about the Labour ones?

  21. @Matt126

    The TIG’s have certainly messed polling up so we have no idea now General Election would pan out:

    Let me have a go at your questions:

    1) Would they contest every seat?

    I suspect not, but they poll at the levels indicated today, I think there would be plenty of people willing to stand. People like backing winners. I think they may struggle more for members on the ground to leaflet etc.

    2) Would they be in a pact with the LIB DEMS. Would vote share be TIG+LIB Dem

    I think Vince has already mentioned the Lib Dems may cooperate. Given the Lib Dems are way behind in many seats, they could focus on a smaller number of LD targets.

    3) Although Labour have lost support would existing MP’s who are seen as moderate no lose support to the TIG’s

    I think the LP leadership would really go for any MP who didn’t campaign hard against the new group. They, and much of the activist base probably feel very tribally betrayed (see Emily’s comments today)

    4) In What areas are they picking up support. London/ South / South West / University cities. Would Labour be relatively unaffected up North?

    That would need a few polls and looking at breakdowns perhaps. I suspect there would be less impact in seats that are safe Labour, and more impact in the sorts of places that Corbyn’s Labour hasn’t really penetrated well enough, the areas needed for a majority. The South East perhaps.

    I don’t think the new group can win very much, but they split the Labour enough to lose seats to the Tories.

    Just a humble opinion/guess!

  22. @Trevors – you’re now off on one of your chaffing missions.

    We export around 680,000 tonnes of milk, so at October wholesale prices of £282 per tonne that would be just over £192m, plus disposal costs. These are not insignificant.

    Milk is quite hard to dispose of safely. Raw sewage has a BOD of around 300mg/litre, and pig slurry 20,000mg/ltr. Raw milk has a BOD of 140,000mg/ltr, so at more that 450 times more polluting than raw sewage, you can get an idea of the costs and problems of disposal of the UK’s entire milk export volume.

    Given the point that we were discussing, disposing of all our milk exports wouldn’t solve the problem anyway – which was that the UK dairy industry relies on imports of cheese made in Ireland from UK milk, so if we’ve chucked all our milk exports away – we won’t have enough cheese……

    I’m not quite sure why you raised this as an option, but presumably it was to demonstrate that we can take mitigating measures.

    So a debate that started with me saying that a no deal Brexit would create financial penalties for the UK farming sector, ends with you saying that a no deal Brexit would create financial penalties for the UK farming sector.

  23. CMJ

    ” I think they may struggle more for members on the ground to leaflet etc.”

    True, but it’s also true of the Lib Dems in seats like East Dunbartonshire and a number of Scottish seats (and presumably elsewhere) where it doesn’t really matter if you have active boots on the ground, as long as you are well funded and can buy such services.

  24. While it remains unclear as to whether Hunt knows the difference between Slovenia and Slovakia (or anywhere else), it’s interesting that he praised the “flourishing economy” of Slovenia and commended it for being an independent member of the EU.

    Just as a comparison –

    Slovenian Population in 2018 : 2,081,260
    Slovenian landmass : 20,273 sq km

    Scottish Population in 2018 : 5,424,800
    Scottish landmass : 78,789 sq km

    Why was Hunt fibbing to the Slovenians that their economy was flourishing in the EU?

    Since Scotland is a larger sub-state than Slovenia was, and Hunt says Scotland would fail economically outwith the UK, then Slovenia must be an even bigger disaster area.

  25. HAL

    I see-so the “crushing” only applies to By Elections then?

  26. Colin,

    Yes, of course. Labour marginals are vulnerable to votes leaking to the Tiggers. As the polls make clear.

  27. Thornberry and Raynor seek to shore up their left credentials by being very strong critics of the 9.

    The leadership race gathering pace as the idea of a GE this year or next looks even less likely and Corbyn can’t led the party in a 2022 contest, surely not!

    ON – Redcar ref makes clear which North-East I meant, smiley thing.

  28. @OLDNAT

    Maybe I’m just too busy buzzing from the rugby but I’m at a loss as to what comparative geographical and population stats between Slovenia and Scotland have to do with whether Slovenia’s economy is flourishing, or indeed whether it is benefiting from its EU membership or how that benefit is affected by how independently-minded its stance towards the EU is. Could you clarify what you meant please?

  29. OldNat

    At least Eurostat treats Scotland as a separate entity – well, at least in this matter.

    https://knoema.com/crim_hom_soff/intentional-homicide-and-sexual-offences-by-legal-status-and-sex-of-the-person-involved-number-and-r

    (Meant to be very light hearted)

  30. EOR

    Clarify? It isn’t exactly hard.

    Just as Hunt has been wrong on most of his pronouncements, he is clearly wrong in asserting that a small country like Slovenia (or Slovakia for that matter, given that he may not have known where he was) is doing well in the EU, given his stance that Scotland would not prosper outwith the UK.

    Either, he is wrong about Slovenia, or wrong about Scotland – or (given his track record) wrong on both.

  31. Laszlo

    I see Eurostat sensibly lists the statistics by legal jurisdiction – which seems rather sensible.

    Must be really annoying to those in NI who thought that their legal jurisdiction covered the whole of the UK! (Meant to be very light hearted)

  32. Interesting Grauniad article from a few days ago:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/22/jeremy-corbyn-blairite-socialists-labour-leadership-party

    The system is broken. Its default setting is to call anyone who doesn’t back a party line a traitor. But something much more interesting is happening, and to try to stuff it all back into traditional party political straightjackets represents the past, not the future.

    Call it centrist if you like, or recognise something radical when it happens. A lot of us have wanted to vote for “none of the above” for a very long time. If you don’t understand that, you continue to prop up the status quo, which is actually the ultimate definition of centrism.

    I wonder how the line pushed by the rally in Broxtowe may actually deepen Labour’s issues, not solve them.

  33. @OLDNAT

    Ah okay, so you you’re saying his stance is that Scotland could not prosper independently within the EU. purely due to its size and geographical area, rather than the volume and balance of its economic assets and demographic obligations?

    If he has said that, then yes I would agree he’s clearly wrong, and very ignorant to boot given how many existing EU states are smaller that either of the ones he may have meant!

    Do you have a link for his views accordingly?

  34. @CHRIS IN CARDIFF

    Worth bearing in mind that the last dramatic poll Roger Scully teased us for days with was an… absolutely dull reversion to the long-term mean.

    Whilst as a Swansea lad I do appreciate his work and his focus on the specific oddities in Wales, he does have a bit of previous for overblowing the changes in pretty mundane results, is all I’m saying!

  35. EOR

    “you’re saying his stance is that Scotland could not prosper independently within the EU. purely due to its size and geographical area, rather than the volume and balance of its economic assets and demographic obligations? ”

    Nope. I just gave a couple of examples of how the Slovenia he lauds as a success in the EU is much smaller than Scotland, whose independence he opposes.

    Another might be GDP per capita https://www.statista.com/statistics/348383/gdp-of-scotland-annually-per-capita/ for Scotland £28.05 c/f Slovenia’s €21,267 – not to mention the level of economic assets, which you can look up for yourself.

    Quite what you mean by “demographic obligations” is unclear. Perhaps you meant an ageing population in Scotland?

    Slovenia is very similar. It is among the European countries with the most pronounced ageing of population.

    Free movement of people suits both, but only Scotland will be denied access to that, due to its immigration policy being controlled by its dominant “partner” in a more constricted union, that is dominated by xenophobic concerns.

    Oddly, the same is true of Slovenia’s former dominant partner, Serbia, which has a similarly ageing population and has been even more xenophobic in the past but which is now being forced to recognise the realities.

    Still, Slovenia didn’t have to wait until Serbia caught up with reality!

  36. Just as it came up.

    Slovenia is a fascinating country. It has been the most developed part of Yugoslavia, about 3 times per capita GDP than the Yugoslavian average. It was partially due to the link of the economy via Austria to the German manufacturing industry. It’s independence declaration triggered the civil war of the 1990s.

    It maintained state ownership combined with the Yugoslavian self-determination (co-determination of management and workers) model for a very long time after independence.

    Localism is very important in the country, effectively determined by geography (valleys).

    While the right wing has gained the share of the votes in the last few years, it has a very fragmented voting distribution starting from Stalinist communists through Titoist communists through new left communists, social democrats, liberals, conservatives and fascists. Because of their relative PR election system, they are in separate parties. The current leader of the country is a kind of anarchist (difficult to describe, but effectively a status quo person).

    Economically Slovenia is suffering right now because of the breakdown of the European supply chain of German companies (and a bit free flowing money 10 years ago that lead to austerity and some privatiaation). The Hungarian government (via its strawmen) owns several major media channels in Slovenia and tries to manipulate (not without success) local opinion.

    It is still fascinating to see such a fragmented yet somehow unified country (without much nationalism apart from the fascists) country in Europe. It was very different from the new members until recently. We will see if it could remain so.

  37. Laszlo

    “It is still fascinating to see such a fragmented yet somehow unified country (without much nationalism apart from the fascists) country in Europe.”

    I’m presuming that you are using “nationalism” in that singular construct of “ethnic nationalism”. How quaint, in 21st century Europe!

    Why do you call it “fragmented”? Is it only because there are not (yet) dominant parties which have constructed a narrative that their propaganda has embedded within the population?

    Slovenia did have a very rapid growth of immigration (largely from other parts of the former Yugoslavia) until a few years ago. Has that flow stopped or reduced in recent years?

  38. OLDNAT
    Your unwavering perseverance is truly remarkable; who knew that even a trip to Slovenia could be turned into a discussion about Scottish independence!
    :)

  39. More Brexit project fear:

    Rolling rolling rolling over trade deals, isn’t going to be as easy as Brexiteers think
    https://twitter.com/RCorbettMEP/status/1099255333866926081

  40. @ Old Nat

    “I’m presuming that you are using “nationalism” in that singular construct of “ethnic nationalism”. How quaint, in 21st century Europe!”

    I’m waiting for the day when an elected official or public official is attacked as a racist and there are calls from the media commentator class for resignation because of an affiliation with the SNP. “He was a member of a nationalist party! He’s a RACIST! I feel betrayed. He has no other choice but to resign immediately!”

    Actually, I recall David Frum (former Bush speechwriter and NeverTrumper) claiming on the Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell that the SNP was a right wing splinter group being secretly supported by Vladimir Putin. And he listed all these various right wing racist splinter groups in Europe and just threw in the SNP.

  41. @PETE

    part of the project fear argument was based on the three premises

    1. The EU was a bunch of cheese and sauage eeating surrender monkeys
    2. They really need us and our money
    3. They would be easily divided

    I cannot comment on the first one (since that is an amercanism and cheese eating surrender monkeys proved to be right over Iraq )

    but the second and third pointed to our lack of understanding of the EU the council of ministers and pretty much is a damning indictment of our political class.

    I pointed out to DANNY that his conspiracy relies on the policial class currently in power have an understanding of the EU and from every encounter it seems like we have not. To use the americanism we drank the Koolaid

    The project fear iems you raise are a complete unsurprise because our first brexit secretary tweeted he was going to Berlin to get a trade deal. if we have a Norther Ireland secretary that has little understanding of Northern Ireland political landscape, a part of the United Kingdom that speak the same language uses the same currency WTF do we expect with something more complex

    There are several reason not to support LEAVE one of the clearest is we have not got the leadership that supports leaving that is capable enough of executing a p1ssup in a brewery.

  42. @ ALEC – Thank you for supplying the source although it fails to supports your claim. As usual you fail instantly by misunderstanding the difference between COULD and WILL!
    (ie you’re using a “static” assumption with no market or HMG response and attempting time travel)

    Anyway, you clearly do not understand the milk/dairy numbers:

    In million litres

    UK production 14,961
    Imports 129
    Exports 912
    (net exports 783, 5% of production)

    Liquid consumption 6,784
    Processed 7,278

    https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-information/supply-production/#.XHJpc-kzDdk

    You can’t store milk in cows udders and you can’t store it as raw milk for long but you even mentioned powdered milk yourself and I’m sure most of UKPR old enough to remember “butter mountains” (FWIW parts of the old CAP system should be used post Brexit but let’s not go on a tangent)

    So mass no slaughterings, no mass bankruptcies but certainly a strong and urgent need for HMG to provide certainty and clarity to end the scare mongering and give agri-food businesses the ability to plan for the necessary adjustments to live outside EU. As TURK mentioned before, we dealt with much worse in the case of foot+mouth.

    In the case of dairy, the %s are so small the price changes will, in most cases, be absorbed in the supply chain – the “many” will barely spot any change other than more local products and less imported products (good for the environment)

    Sure if you absolutely have to buy imported butter or cheese you’ll have to pay more but against that domestic produces will be uneconomic to export so will be sold on UK market (basic principle of substitution in a “non-static” market then also busts the absurd Remainer “static” view of enormous traffic jams and dairy produce souring on the M20)

    So thanks again for helping bust a bunch of Remainer myths!

    PS If you had gone for the “macro” substitution issue you would have had a good Remain based argument.

    Simplistically with some “drama” then EU will hope to starve us out for a few weeks post 29Mar so we capitulate and sign their bad deal. I reckon we’ll survive until beyond18April but I’m sure the Graun will have plenty of anecdotes of Waitrose or M&S shoppers who couldn’t buy their favourite French cheese!

    @ R&D – You missed out that I was mocking ALEC. However, in the absurd example that we couldn’t absorb the small net increase in raw milk then we could pay the farmers direct (ie if the domestic market can’t absorb the small increase then instead of sending raw milk on lorries to Netherlands some farmers could be paid to pour it down the drain). It won’t come to that – which is why I said it was an absurd example.

    @ OLDNAT – touché

  43. Opinium tabs are out, headlines already posted by a few folks.

    About the only thing of note in the headline was TIG+LDEM = 11%

    Interesting to look at the loyalty section (current VI versus 2017 vote) as Opinium split both main parties out by Remain and Leave”

    CON Remain: 86%
    CON Leave: 81%

    LAB Remain: 84%
    LAB Leave: 76%

    So from Opinium, one poll etc. then the biggest loser from TIG starting up is LDEM and the movement in the main parties is fairly small, certainly doesn’t look like LAB-Remain are deserting LAB

    Elsewhere V206 shows most folks think TIG will have no impact on Brexit (43%) although more think it increases likelihood of No Deal (20%) versus chance of stopping Brexit (9%)

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-13th-february-2019-2/

  44. Having real problems with my polling spreadsheets with TIG. needing to go in as some companies have the same polling without them. I see Britain Elects and Election Polling websites seem to be hesitating as well. In any event, the polls are so variable with parties varying by far more than usual – Con, Lab and TIG by 8 %, LD and UKIP only 4% and 3% respectively. I think much depends on how the questions are asked as there is clearly prompting to get the answers for TIG, as there was for the SDP in the 80s.

    Before all this, but including versions of more recent polls without TIG, the average for Feb was
    Con 39.2
    Lab 35.5
    LD 10.2
    UKIP 4.6
    which indicates a movement from Lab to Con without TIG as a choice, roughly a 2% swing. LD were up a little as well.

  45. So May dares Rudd, G.Clarke and Gauke to resign from cabinet by/on Weds:

    “Brexit must not be frustrated, Theresa May vows”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47346630

    Plenty of CON Brexiteer MPs very happy to replace any-all of those three!

    I note Liddington and Bradley weren’t daft enough to go on record, so 5 became 3, becomes….? TBA!!

  46. Good morning. And always a good morning after Wales triumphed so decisively against the Saeson . Harder games ahead though against our Celtic rivals.

    Labour party drop is probably a TIG blip. However, I’m looking forward to the TIG falling out over policy, austerity Tory Soubry vs borrow and spend Blairites! What a combination!

  47. and the deltapoll tabs are up.

    If you multiply out the x-breaks they show LAB are biggest losers from TIG but they do get a much higher % for TIG overall – still early days so fair to expect a lot of “noise” in their VI reading

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/polls/the-independent-group

    NB The ES is making a fuss over the LAB reading if Corbyn was no longer LAB leader (see p15). In the x-breaks you can see its not as clear but as LAB just getting back the VI they lost to TIG though – they’d pick up quite a few CON switch votes and more of disloyal LDEM!

  48. @Matt126

    “So if Keir Starmer/ Yvette Cooper became Labour Leader they would be on for a Majority?”

    They would be largest party (just) but would need a C&S with the SNP and (a likely) TIG/LD alliance.

    On a separate issue the TIG have said they won’t bring down the government in a VoC, (I presume, until they are ready to contest a GE).

    The LDs have already said that they won’t support Labour in this respect until a second ref is supported by the latter and, more recently, that they are likely to support TIG in a GE by not contesting each other. This makes their likelihood to vote against the government very low.

    Around 322 votes are needed to bring down the government in a VoC once SF and speaker are removed.

    CON plus TIG = 325
    CON plus TIG plus LD = 336
    CON plus TIG plus LD plus DUP = 346

    No election before 2022 or until TIG are ready and DUP vote against, unless called by the PM.

    Not looking good for Corbyn now.

  49. Andrew – has this gone beyond Heide Allen now, I have not heard ex Lab TiG staying this.

  50. I mean this
    ”the TIG have said they won’t bring down the government in a VoC”

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