There are two new voting intention polls out today – YouGov for the Times, and Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor in the Evening Standard.

Ipsos MORI‘s topline figures are CON 38%(nc), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Friday and Tuesday (1st-5th), and changes are from MORI’s last poll back in December.

YouGov‘s topline figures are CON 41%(+2), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 10(-1), UKIP 4%(-2). Fieldwork was on Sunday and Monday, and changes are from YouGov’s last poll in mid-January.

This does not, of course, offer us much insight on what is really happening. At the weekend a lot of attention was paid to a poll by Opinium showing a big shift towards the Conservatives and a 7 point Tory lead. Earlier in the week Opinium also published a previously unreleased poll conducted for the People’s Vote campaign the previous week, which showed a four point Tory lead, suggesting their Observer poll was more than just an isolated blip. Today’s polls do little to clatify matters – MORI show no change, with the parties still neck-and-neck. YouGov show the Tories moving to a seven point lead, the same as Opinium, but YouGov has typically shown larger Tory leads anyway of late so it doesn’t reflect quite as large a movement.

I know people look at polls hoping to find some firm evidence – the reality is they cannot always provide it. They are volatile, they have margins of error. Only time will tell for sure whether Labour’s support is dropping as events force them to take a clearer stance on Brexit, or whether we’re just reading too much into noise. As ever, the wisest advice I can give is to resist the natural temptation to assume that the polls you’d like to be accurate are the ones that are correct, and that the others must be wrong.

Ipsos MORI tables are up here, YouGov tables are here.


541 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Ipsos MORI voting intention polls”

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  1. DAVID COLBY

    Thanks for the informative post.

    Slavery was in existence as I think you know long before the British were involved. Aristotle said: ” the slave is a part of the master – he is, as it were, a part of the body, alive but yet separated from it; hence there is a certain community of interest and friendship between slave and master in cases when they have been qualified by nature for these positions, although when they do not hold them in that way but by law and by constraint of force the opposite is the case.”

    The slave was seen as an “other” for whom slavery was natural. A point of view common in antiquity and one that has lasted a long time.

    The “indentures” of which you spoke were a form of slavery.. Sir John Wedderburn was executed after Culloden for his part in the battle. His two teenage sons were captured and deported.They were indentured on a Carribean plantation for 7 years.Following that they became slave owners and went on to be two of the most successful plantation and slave owners.
    They preserved their enormous wealth by marrying into other wealthy families.

  2. @ Allan Christie

    “Well we had our poll on the 23 June 2016 and we voted to leave”

    And then in 2017, we voted for a huge constitutional mess. We haven’t had to wait so long for that one to be delivered.

  3. David Colby

    Just for pedantry.

    The 1833 Act didn’t apply for territories of the East India Company, Sri Lanka and some other colonies. Strictly speaking the UK abolished slavery only in 1997, so, lagging behind. You also forgot to mention the 1793 constitution of France, that preceded any British attempt.

    Anyway, yes, Britain was a major force in abolishing legal slavery.

    Ps.: in the 1807 embargo slave trade really had a very minor role Britain role was much bigger in supporting the slavery supporting (Confederate) states during the civil war.

  4. To be fair the genetic crossover that created grapefruit happened in Barbados.

    As a result it should be banned in Scotland :-) along with almost all food products as they are GMOs :-)

  5. SAM

    To treat the indentures to which David Colby refers as “a form of slavery” is of a piece with attitudes to “modern slavery” and in that context even helpful. But in this context it’s profoundly wrong.

    The system of indentured labour was about transactions in labour. In a way that bound the labourer that modern eyes would see as outrageous. In a way that bound the labourer at times against their will and allowed their obligation to be bought and sold.

    But slavery bought and sold the man as a chattel. Not the labour obligation, the man. It’s a whole extra qualitative level of outrage.

  6. @PETERW

    Yeah, that was kind of my point tho. May doesn’t have the political power to compel them to vote with her on their key issue now, so if they were technically in a different party, albeit one that’s likely to vote with her on almost everything else, is it much difference?

    I’d see a centrist breakaway (from either Con or Lab, or certainly both) as much more potentially interesting, because it would raise the possibility of those guys setting themselves up as post-Clegg arbiters who could swing their support between Red and Blue issue by issue or year by year.

  7. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “I think AW also said “the only poll that counts is the poll on polling day”
    Well we had our poll on the 23 June 2016 and we voted to leave so all other polls with regards to Brexit are not worth the paper they are written on.”

    It ill not surprise you to know that I totally agree with that.

  8. Sam

    “Slavery was in existence as I think you know long before the British were involved.”

    True, but only because other slave-owning cultures existed prior to the emergence of what can sensibly call “Britain” in the Neolithic (and perhaps earlier).

    British tribal leaders made good profits from selling slaves in pre-Roman times, and the practice continued for centuries.

  9. Since I’m English I have to say today has been really enjoyable.

    England Womens Rugby team beat France (last year GS winners) 41-26.

    Engalnd Mens Rugby beat France 44-8, from memory, best win against France for over a 100 years.

    Even the cricket team got a big first innings lead against the Windies.

    Night all, the Rugby was superb, almost as good as the wins over Irish teams last week.

    :-)

  10. The worrying, ludicrous thing about Theresa May’s reply to Jeremy Corbyn’s Brexit plan is that it’s been given a “strict” embargo of 10.30 tonight – so it was given out to media this afternoon on the understanding we can’t publish it until 10.30pm. (Michael Crick)

    I wonder who’ll break the embargo first?

  11. LASZLO
    Yes indeed, and indentured labour was imported to the West Indies from India post abolition (especially to Trinidad and British Guiana)

    Napoleon overturned 1793 and doubled down on Haiti big time

    I wouldn’t say the slave trade ban was ‘minor’: “Between 1808 and 1860 the Royal Navy’s West Africa Squadron captured 1,600 slave ships and freed 150,000 Africans.”

    …and the British did burn down the White House in 1814.

    Britain’s ‘red line’ for having the Southern States rejoin The Empire was the abolition of slavery. The South declined.

    PETERW
    I agree. ‘The slave laws’ in Barbados even stipulated that the child of a (female) slave was automatically a slave. So a slave could even be ‘created’ through rape.
    But ironically, the life expectancy of an indentured labourer was shorter than that of a slave in the Caribbean because there was no financial incentive to keep that labourer alive for longer than his (there were few females) five, ten or fifteen year term… The law of unintended consequences.

  12. A C.

    “Polls with regards to political parties and where they stand for upcoming GE’s are fine but why poll endlessly on something we have already voted for?”

    Gosh you write some really silly things just because you are anti-EU.

    Polls are regularly carried out on the current preference for political parties very shortly after general elections in which our preferences were measured on a much wider scale.

    Why is that not a problem, but asking people what they think NOW, about us leaving the EU [when we haven’t yet left or even concluded a deal that the Tory Party can agree about amongst themselves] somehow is?

    And despite the original vote having taken place over two and a half years ago and there having been significant changes to the electorate, public opinion, and public understanding of the process and options, since that referendum.

  13. David Colby

    “Britain’s ‘red line’ for having the Southern States rejoin The Empire was the abolition of slavery”

    I’m aware that both the Confederate and Union sides sent diplomatic missions to the UK, but hadn’t seen that the Confederacy wanted to re-join the British Empire.

    Got a link to that?

  14. TRIGGUY
    @ Allan Christie

    “Well we had our poll on the 23 June 2016 and we voted to leave”
    ………………….
    And then in 2017, we voted for a huge constitutional mess. We haven’t had to wait so long for that one to be delivered/
    ______________

    No, what people voted for was for a hung parliament and a Parliament made up of mostly remain supporting MP’s that have made a hash of implementing what people had originally voted for in the EU referendum.

  15. THE OTHER HOWARD
    ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “I think AW also said “the only poll that counts is the poll on polling day”
    Well we had our poll on the 23 June 2016 and we voted to leave so all other polls with regards to Brexit are not worth the paper they are written on.”
    ………………….
    It ill not surprise you to know that I totally agree with that.
    _________

    Thanks and it’s a comment I will stand by until we leave the EU. :-)

  16. Allan Christie

    “what people voted for was for a hung parliament”

    With all due respect, that comment is absolute garbage.

    Precisely no one voted for a hung parliament. The result of people voting in the way that they chose was a hung parliament – but that is a very different matter!

  17. EOTW
    “Grapefruit is a citrus hybrid originating in Barbados as an accidental cross between two introduced species – sweet orange and pomelo (or shaddock) – both of which were introduced from Asia in the seventeenth century. When found, it was nicknamed the “forbidden fruit”.

    More Barbados trivia:
    It has the second oldest parliament in the Commonwealth after Westminster.

    The statue of Lord Nelson in Bridgetown’s ‘National Hero’s Square’ (formerly‘Trafalgar Square’) pre-dates the statue In London.

  18. Re-fishing & brexit…

    One of the things that brexiteers point out is that without the common fisheries policy, the UK fishing industry would be onto a winner.

    I’m not so sure.

    Here’s the thing…when we went into what was then the common market, the ‘fish supper’ (in other words, fish & chips) was very much a staple of the British diet.

    Chippys (which, back then were often called fish shops), cafes, hotels etc, would offer a choice of cod, plaice & haddock.

    I remember eating mackeral fairly regularly when I was a kid as well.

    Nowadays, yes, you can still get cod in the chippy, but, it is no longer the automatic ‘go to’ option that it once was.

    Fish is now much less a staple of the British diet than it once was.

    Most of the fish that is now caught by UK fishermen is now exported. Much of that is exported to the EU, where, in many countries it is now something that is eaten by more people and more regularly than the UK.

    If UK fish is subjected to tariffs by the EU, it will become more expensive for them, with the likelyhood that they will buy less fish from us than they currently do.

  19. ROSIEANDDAISIE

    I can assure you I’m just as anti EU as you’re anti Brexit. I know why polls are conducted and as for the emphasis of your comment,
    ………………
    “Why is that not a problem, but asking people what they think NOW, about us leaving the EU [when we haven’t yet left or even concluded a deal that the Tory Party can agree about amongst themselves] somehow is?

    And despite the original vote having taken place over two and a half years ago and there having been significant changes to the electorate, public opinion, and public understanding of the process and options, since that referendum”
    ____________

    There is no problem conducting polls regarding if people wish to leave the EU or not but since we are leaving I reckon it is a total waste of money and only adds fuel to this daft idea of a peoples vote.

    For all the bluster over Brexit the polls have not changed that much. Public opinion in the country is still as split as it was with the original vote.

    Back to the peoples vote….I thought those who voted for Brexit, you know, the working class, blue collar workers, provincial England and Wales, was the peoples vote, the small person sticking it to the establishment etc… so we were told!!

    We’ve had a peoples vote. Woof Woof rosey & posey

  20. @ AC

    “No, what people voted for was for a hung parliament and a Parliament made up of mostly remain supporting MP’s that have made a hash of implementing what people had originally voted for in the EU referendum.”

    I agree with all of that, except the “No”. I don’t actually see how what you said is in contradiction to what I said. You’ve described the constitutional mess rather well.

    Actually I do disagree with one other thing, which is your use of the apostrophe.

  21. OLDNAT

    As per usual you take someones comment out of context. Not for one minute did I suggest people actually went into a polling station to vote for a hung Parliament but with so many political strands surrounding UK politics in 2017 then inadvertently that’s what they ended up with.

  22. TRIGGUY

    “Actually I do disagree with one other thing, which is your use of the apostrophe”
    _________

    I certainly wont be losing any sleep over it.

  23. @Trevors – “@Alec – so you can’t answer simple questions and resort to insults :-) :-)”

    Oh dear. You seem really rather sensitive tonight? I’m not not sure most posters would term ‘pointless chaff’ as an insult? I think ‘banter’ might be the correct expression, but I’m a bit rusty on the precise definitions – that’s more your area I think?

    I didn’t answer your qus 2-5 because they were a deliberate and pointless distraction from the matter in hand, and I didn’t answer your qu 1 because I had done that already.

    Like I say, you asserted that the UK would have a trade deal with Japan before the EU did, and that we would photocopy/cut and paste/roll over all 40 of our current bilateral deals we have through the EU by March 29th.

    The sole purpose of the discussion was quite simple – to demonstrate that both assertions were wrong, with hard, factual evidence of both your original assertions and the consequent actual outcomes that have shown them to be false. Nothing else here is relevant.

    In the circumstances, the correct response would be to simply accept you got a couple of big things wrong. That’s not a problem. We can all get things wrong sometimes – the world won’t cave in on you just because you were a bit too confident. I think we’d all respect you a bit more if you just accepted that.

    Flinging out reams of diversionary and unconnected posts to cover the simple facts of the matter and then claiming insult when someone points out what you are doing, doesn’t kid anyone on here, even though it can be quite amusing at times.

  24. ToH @ 9.15 pm

    Here we go again illustrating the blinkered outlook of too many in southern England.

    The teams that won today were the Rugby Union teams, and they ought to be called that. Millions of us in the UK follow both rugby codes, and the best most successful clubs in world rugby are in the NRL.

    And you ought to acknowledge that Owen Farrell who starred again today, inherited his craft at Wigan RL. His variety of play and quick thinking is completely in line with the best RL out-half playmakers.

    Owen played League for 6 years before trying a game of Union, and played against his rival for the England No 10 position, George Ford, when just 11 years old; both were their side`s playmakers. I remember seeing Ford`s father playing for Oldham RL in just the same crafty playmaking style.

    Yes, Howard, England`s win today was very enjoyable; we can agree on that.

  25. @David Colby – I have very little knowledge of grapefruits, Barbados, the origins of the sugar cane industry, the history of the slave trade or the salt herring industry, in Scotland or elsewhere, but your post was highly entertaining and enjoyable.

    UKPR is a strange beast at times, with all manner of surprises.

    Thankyou.

  26. Allan Christie

    I am happy to accept your assurance that the words you use don’t mean what they say, but are just a random repetition of phrases that you have heard.

  27. @ AC

    “I certainly wont be losing any sleep over it.”

    Neither will I, I just thought we hadn’t had enough grammar on here recently. Far more interesting than Brexit, any day.

    But you didn’t explain how your comment differed from mine. If I were to try to be more accurate, I would suggest the constitutional crisis started with the 2016 vote, but it was the 2017 GE that really turned it up to 11. It’ll be fascinating (and possibly worrying) to see how things turn out.

    By the way, I have no idea what point I was really trying to make, except maybe that we sometimes don’t get what we vote for, but otten we get the government we deserve, as someone far wiser than me has pointed out.

  28. OLDNAT

    Likewise…I am happy to accept your assurance that the words you use don’t mean what they say, but are just a random repetition of a demented tasseography fortuneteller reading out of date tea leaves that you have heard..

  29. @DAVWEL

    It’s intriguing to see the codes influencing each other, and likewise how few players have truly shone at both. Admittedly that’s going to be largely to do with economic parity being rare between them, so in different eras the best players have naturally gravitated to one or the other, but still. I think it shows how specialised even two strands of the same sport can be, when you get to international level at least.

  30. TRIGGUY

    What I will say is…TM calling for a snap election in 2017 made the process of Brexit much harder due to her losing her already slim majority and having to depend on the DUP

    However it’s up to parliament to deliver on the 2016 referendum result

  31. @ AC

    Indeed, it all makes for wonderful entertainment.

  32. I’ve just updated my Yougov analysis for the breakdown of 2017 Con, Lab and LD voters to Con, Lab, LD, DK and WNV.

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=15TPCYgf8S4Wb1YrkrfSJSiPlZwv0TlQ8

    I’ll post more analysis tomorrow, but there are some clear trends around Labour’s polling relative to the Conservatives:

    1. Fewer 2017 Lab voters supporting Lab now.
    2. An increase in Lab 2017 voters to Lib Dem.
    3. Higher levels of 2017 Lab votyers now Don’t Know.

  33. AC

    “However it’s up to parliament to deliver on the 2016 referendum result”

    That isn’t the constitutional position in the state that you now seem to be so keen to remain in (you have transmogrified into a Remainer).

    The UK Parliament can consider the referendum result if it wishes (though it would have been surprising if it hadn’t), but then choose to accept it or not, and if it accepts it (which the largest parties have) to interpret what it means.

    They then have the rather more difficult task of deciding whether accepting the deal negotiated by the UK Government is the best solution.

    Of course, the reality that the UK parties in Parliament long gave away many of their powers to the executive makes it rather difficult to take effective action.

  34. TRIGGUY
    @ AC

    “Indeed, it all makes for wonderful entertainment”
    _______________

    Not as entertaining as your spelling of the word “often” (otten)

    I tell you what…I’ll brush up on my grammar if you promise to spellcheck your posts before posting for silly errors.

    Oh dear… )-:

    Night night

  35. “For all the bluster over Brexit the polls have not changed that much. Public opinion in the country is still as split as it was with the original vote. ”

    Not so – the last 5 polls on the issue show an average lead for Remain of 9 points. The movement away from Leave has been slow but it’s clearly be happening steadily over the past year.

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/?removed

  36. @ JAMES E

    I don’t dispute that sentiment has gradually and slowly shifted, but still – asking people how they’d vote in a hypothetical situation is problematic to start with; asking them how they’d vote in a hypothetical situation that the majority of them don’t think should happen, that has to be rather more so?

    Also, everyone’s language is different too. There could be plenty of people who’d say that tomorrow they would, if asked, still vote to Remain, but who think that the 2016 Leave vote should be carried through.

    Likewise there could be plenty who would say that they’d still vote tomorrow that we should leave Leave but that we absolutely shouldn’t do so right now because everything’s been made such a mess in the negotiations, and that leaving without a deal/plan would be disastrous.

  37. avid Colby
    “It has the second oldest parliament in the Commonwealth after Westminster.”

    I was going to suggest the Tynwald of the Isle of Man which is supposed to predate either, but they are apparently not part of the Commonwealth even though they participate in the Commonwealth Games. A typical British muddle which seems to work ok.
    ——————————-
    Mark
    “Fish is now much less a staple of the British diet than it once was.”

    This is partly because the EU stole most of our fish, and I do agree that cod is no longer the automatic mainstay, but I have three chippies within a five-minute walk of my house, so the tradition is not dying everywhere.
    ———————————-
    James E
    What were the Remain leads in the polls leading up the the referendum?

  38. @ Pete B

    I think the consensus is that the final pre-referendum polls averaged as a 2 point lead for Remain. Some companies’ final polls showed Leave ahead.

    But pollsters have adjusted their methodology in the light of the Actual result, so pre and post June 2016 polling on the issue has been carried out on different methodologies.

  39. Pete B

    “the EU stole most of our fish”

    I’m impressed! I hadn’t expected you to indulge in mockery of the extremist Europhobe stance by saying something that even the most ignorant and foolish of that cohort would consider too extreme.

    Well done for trying, though beware. Some folk might believe you actually mean it.

  40. I note that on May 2, virtually all of England outwith London will be involved in local elections.

    Any views from those in the English polity as to whether calculations about those is affecting the posturing by May and Corbyn?

  41. @OLDNAT

    These local elections would have included Wales too in the normal cycle, had the powers that be (in Cardiff) not determined Welsh voters were too stupid to cope with council and Assembly elections at the same time and thus saved us from our crisis by voting themselves an extra year of office at our expense.

  42. (I make the reference because South Wales was for me a key part of the astonishing events in 1995 when the Tories lost over 2,000 councillors in one night, something that always comes back to me when the media are trying to insist that +200 or -300 is a Triumph or a Disaster for whoever they’re after this week)

  43. ALEC
    Well it beats Brexit, right?
    :)

  44. EOR

    NI goes to the polls on May 2 too, it seems. Those results might be interesting, regardless of what state of clusterbourach Brexit is in by then,

    I think you are being somewhat unfair in your complaint about the Senedd.

    Scotland (and AFIK Wales) was quite happy with the 4 year cycle of elections, until it was buggered up by the FTPA when the UK Parliament chose to have a 5 year term and ban co-incident elections to the devolved Parliament/Assemblies.

    Random coincident elections are unlikely ever to be a sensible procedure, but if you are desperate to cling to a part of the somewhat chaotic English LA election cycle, then your ire is probably better directed towards your fellows to the east.

  45. SAM
    Robert Wedderburn was a militant abolitionist who covered and campaigned for slave uprisings in Barbados and Jamaica. He was alligned to the Weslian church. I wonder whether there might be a connection.

  46. jonesinbangor,
    “I’m not talking about withdrawing greening subsidy, in fact I’m saying make all subsidies linked to environmental and public wellbeing outcomes.”

    Ok, so then farmers will stop growing crops. The process of growing crops isnt profitable without subsidy, and will be even less so without EU protective tariffs – if these go. if the susbsidy is no longer linked to a requirement to crop grows, then they wont grow them.

    I doubt the land will literally be abandoned, but its use will change. The reason hedges etc were oiginally torn up was because it is easier to maintain a giant field with a giant tractor. The question becomes whether farmers will stick with the dwindling subsidy and farm stewardship rather than growing crops, or abandon stewardship and go for huge farms with minimal stewardship working on economis of scale.

    I see no future for farm subsidy if we leave the EU. It is contrary to Uk government policy.

  47. David Colby,
    “who would ultimately become an MP for the same constituency as his namesake still is today (incredibly). ”
    Nothing unusual about that!

    Davwell,
    ” and some potential visitors will be put off by hearing about the turbines”
    Well not me. I like turbines. I always liked pylons too.

    Oldnat,
    “Precisely no one voted for a hung parliament.”
    Have they been asked this in a poll? They might well have wanted to stop a conservative majority and stop a labour majority, because they did not want either outcome. Few people when polled seem to like the policies of either labour or conservative.

    Allan Christie,
    “For all the bluster over Brexit the polls have not changed that much.”
    Oh dear. You are essentially conceding there was never any real majority to leave the EU. Which is the root of our problems now. We dont want to leave. But there does in fact seem to be a bigger remain majority now than leave majority in the eferendum.

    PeteB,
    “This is partly because the EU stole most of our fish,”

    They didnt steal our fish. We fished out fish in coastal waters. Then icealand threw us out of their waters by expanding their territorial limit.(you will recall, the UK navy was incapable of defending Uk trawlers so they could continue fishing) Other european countries always had established rights to fish in waters around the Uk, (also bordered by them on the other side), and then finally we have been selling our EU quota to other countries.

  48. @ AC

    Time for new glasses I think. Or larger type.

  49. DANNY
    “Nothing unusual about that”

    I don’t think there’ s another MP with a parliamentary pedigree like this:

    “Family members who served as Members of Parliament for the family’s pocket borough of Wareham include:
    1679-1698, 1701–1718, Thomas Erle (born c. 1650, died 23 July 1720)
    1701, 1704, 1710, 1722 Sir Edward Ernle (born c. 1673, died 31 Jan 1729)
    1718, 1734, 1751, Henry Drax (born c. 1693, died 24 May 1755)
    1747, 1754, 1761, Thomas Erle Drax (born c. 1721, died December 1789)
    1755, Edward Drax (born c. 1726, died April 1791)
    1841, 1859, 1868, John Samuel Wanley Sawbridge Erle-Drax (born 6 October 1800, died 7 January 1887);

    The current owner Richard Drax (born 1958), has served as Member of Parliament for South Dorset since 2010.”

  50. DAVWEL

    I am well aware that there is another form of Rugby, a good game , much better than football for example, but not as good as Rugby Union IMO.

    Since you are sensitive sole I will apologise for not adding the Union bit to my posts.

    What I find amazing is what appears to be your hatred of SE England, is it hatred or jealousy? Anyway it’s mystifying. I lived in Northumberland for the first five years of my married life and enjoyed the Rugby Union played at Gosforth. Nobody talked Rugby League and nobody had a dislike of sotherners. Whats, your problem?

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