There are two new voting intention polls out today – YouGov for the Times, and Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor in the Evening Standard.

Ipsos MORI‘s topline figures are CON 38%(nc), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Friday and Tuesday (1st-5th), and changes are from MORI’s last poll back in December.

YouGov‘s topline figures are CON 41%(+2), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 10(-1), UKIP 4%(-2). Fieldwork was on Sunday and Monday, and changes are from YouGov’s last poll in mid-January.

This does not, of course, offer us much insight on what is really happening. At the weekend a lot of attention was paid to a poll by Opinium showing a big shift towards the Conservatives and a 7 point Tory lead. Earlier in the week Opinium also published a previously unreleased poll conducted for the People’s Vote campaign the previous week, which showed a four point Tory lead, suggesting their Observer poll was more than just an isolated blip. Today’s polls do little to clatify matters – MORI show no change, with the parties still neck-and-neck. YouGov show the Tories moving to a seven point lead, the same as Opinium, but YouGov has typically shown larger Tory leads anyway of late so it doesn’t reflect quite as large a movement.

I know people look at polls hoping to find some firm evidence – the reality is they cannot always provide it. They are volatile, they have margins of error. Only time will tell for sure whether Labour’s support is dropping as events force them to take a clearer stance on Brexit, or whether we’re just reading too much into noise. As ever, the wisest advice I can give is to resist the natural temptation to assume that the polls you’d like to be accurate are the ones that are correct, and that the others must be wrong.

Ipsos MORI tables are up here, YouGov tables are here.


541 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Ipsos MORI voting intention polls”

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  1. Today’s FT carries an article on the “Leavers of Britain”. It seems they attended the Manchester branches meeting. The chair of the branch is a member of the CPGB (M-L) – essentially a tankist organisation – who wasn’t present (being in Cuba for the celebration of the anniversary of the revolution).

    The diversity of the branch is really striking – those really feel hurt, those who want to capitalise on Brexit (letting in cheap goods and very cheap labour), and so on. It is worth reading it (but isn’t worth paying for it).

    Brexit is a very odd polarisation of the society, and I’m quite sure it cannot be resolved as it doesn’t correspond to social stratification, to occupation/profession (maybe the age is the only one that does correspond to a degree). It will remain painful and extremely sensitive (either way it goes). Judging from a video I saw from 1978, it has always been around just in a latent, socially suppressed form (one of the interviewees said that the Europeans cheat (because km is shorter than miles) and now British people couldn’t drive as far with the same amount of petrol as before the introduction of the metric measures (obviously ignoring that metrication goes back to 1818, but at least to 1965).

  2. (maybe I should call you “the Other Vlad”?)

  3. Here’s another one:

    “@ SOMERJOHN – ….. We will photocopy the trade deals with other nations – then over time go back and renegotiate some (e.g. Canada) to make them better suited to both sides. We can also fast-track many of the stalled EU trade deals,…”

    Trevor Warne
    October 2nd, 2017 at 12:53 pm

  4. Or this, for a more recent example:

    “The issue over the last few pages seems to be this Remainer fixation on the 40+ number [of existing EU free trade deals] that Fox mentioned in some tub thumper in Manchester and I’m simply showing how easy it would be…”

    Trevor Warne
    October 16th, 2018 at 10:55 am

    I think we’ve gone far enough with this and the point has been made.

  5. @ TO / CMJ (@ TOH) – so would you guys be fine with hanging tories but upset about us of an emotive word? McDonnell’s view of McVey and the poster at CON party conference?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/30/tory-delegates-to-party-conference-targeted-by-fascists

    FWIW I use the term “betrayal” as polling companies have asked that specific term. YG poll mid Dec’18:

    “Anything less than a clean break from the EU will be a betrayal of the Referendum vote”

    48% and net 13% total agree / partial agree!
    CON VI 69% and net 47%!

    @ HIRETON – We’re either there or nearly there on “Copy+Paste” with several countries but for sure we are behind where we should be, for the reasons I pointed out.

    You might remember I’ve frequently said:
    a/ we should tweak many of the EU deals as they are cr4p for UK
    b/ we shouldn’t be in a rush with many of the deals

    It’s completely understandable that Remain will make ever hiccup look like the ” End of the World” but you’d have to be remarkably n4ive to think would be a “Walk in the Park” [1]

    FWIW, EU hasn’t had certified schedules with WTO for over 10years but remarkably still seems to trade with rWorld (as we do since we are still in EU).

    Trade won’t stop if we don’t have a trade deal with country X. We will need to use Article XXIV of WTO as a “stop-gap” and hold our nerve – simples ;)

    [1] The head of the World Trade Organisation Roberto Azevedo has said a no-deal Brexit would not “be the end of the world” but added it would not be “a walk in the park either”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p06jbmr6

    [2] If leaving the EU was “easy” then others would want to do it. Not a bad thing if we make it look a bit difficult as gives us a head start ;)

  6. ES had an exclusive poll I don’t think anyone posted on UKPR.

    Corbyn at -55% approval rating (Ipsos-Mori), new low!
    (YG also recorded him at new low of -45%, note different companies use different wording)

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyns-leadership-ratings-crash-to-worst-level-yet-over-brexit-a4061246.html

    @ JIB – LDEM would benefit from a new leader as well.

    Agree on LAB. I’m not sure Corbyn wants to go but if he takes all the “hit” from LAB’s Brexit approach then a new LAB leader can park baggage with him. Whether or not Remain bear a personal grudge or a party grudge is TBA.

    Cleggmania took down LDEM as well as Clegg himself

    Corbynmania ?? TBA!

    I’m not sure what CON would or should do. Keep May for now and hope she goes quietly in say 2020? Much will depend on the next few months and if they can make a success of “Project After” – again TBA!

  7. @ ALEC – thank you. Both of those posts of mine are of course exactly what is happening but we are clearly behind where we should be… for the reasons I explained!

    The issue I’ll expand on is May’s inability to pursue WTO as HMG policy as she fears mass cabinet and ministerial resignations.

    However we are “close” or “ready” with some EFTA, Middle East, LATAM and Africa. Most of that is public knowledge if you cared to look it up. Some of the info I have is not public but we have

    48d 11h 7m 20s

    to go, so the until 11pm on 29Mar’19
    https://www.labourleave.org.uk/

  8. @ALEC (11.11)

    I think you’re overthinking the use of the T word. Those who invoke it in regard to Brexit presumably see things much as those on the left who invoke it over Trump – they see the popular will being deliberately subverted at the behest and interest of foreign countries.

    Now I doubt there are many on here at all who would agree with that as a reasonable characterisation of Brexit. But it seems a fairly uncontroversial definition of treason for the few that do see things that way.

  9. @Alec
    And thanks to you for your tireless and admirable responses to Turk’s and others non-partisan musings on Labour policy.

    :-)

  10. Given the weight of this recent polling evidence there does, by recent standards at least, appear to have been a noticeable shift to the Tories (or more correctly away from Labour) since the votes in Parliament in January 29th.

    These seven point Tory leads are the highest since the General Election and even the ones showing the parties neck and neck are from pollsters which were already either showing much better positions for Labour than the rest, or in the case of IPSOS MORI. from quite small samples.

    I’m not at all sure how a sample of not much more than 1000 can be seen as reliable in today’s demographically and geographically fragmented electorates. The geographical fragmentation alone can be quite localised.

    As regards the underlying apparent swing against Labour, I wonder if this is because Remainers are finally giving up on Corbyn.

  11. “We will need to use Article XXIV of WTO as a “stop-gap””

    Article xxiv applies as a transitional measure where detailed agreement has been reached on a comprehensive FTA as has been repeatedly explained by trade lawyers not where one party has voluntarily withdrawn from one.

    The Japaneses Government has already said that its WTO tariffs will apply to the UK if there is no deal with the EU.

  12. “We will need to use Article XXIV of WTO as a “stop-gap””

    Article xxiv applies as a transitional measure where detailed agreement has been reached on a comprehensive FTA as has been repeatedly explained by trade lawyers not where one party has voluntarily withdrawn from one.

    The Japaneses Government has already said that its WTO tariffs will apply to the UK if there is no deal with the EU.

  13. YG link to poll mentioned at 12:18pm, see p13 for the:

    “Anything less than a clean break from the EU will be a betrayal of the Referendum vote”

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/x6h9ykoolf/HopeNotHate_Results_181217_w.pdf

    PS Thank you ALEC for giving us the definitions of “Treason”, one of which was: “The action of betraying someone or something.”

  14. @TW @HIRETON

    “We will need to use Article XXIV of WTO as a “stop-gap””

    Article xxiv applies as a transitional measure where detailed agreement has been reached on a comprehensive FTA as has been repeatedly explained by trade lawyers not where one party has voluntarily withdrawn from one.

    Not so bl**dy simples.

    TW, your frequent use of “Simples” confirms you must be a Russian bot/meerkat.

  15. “I’m not at all sure how a sample of not much more than 1000 can be seen as reliable in today’s demographically and geographically fragmented electorates. The geographical fragmentation alone can be quite localised.”

    This may be the first time that I have ever agreed with Ronald Olden.

    If I have understood (at least part of) Laszlo’s comments on polling correctly, that fragmentation makes the predictive/deductive conflict even more intense.

  16. Hi JIM JAM

    You are right. I did post a link to something Jeffrey Donaldson said about the DUP’s attitude to a CU. I can’t remember what he said.

  17. @ HIRETON – so Japan are playing hardball?!? Who is surprised by that?

    You might note Japan have also previously said:

    “Japan will “spare no effort to support the UK” in joining the CPTPP”

    back in Jul’18 and more recent Abe comments

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/japan-will-spare-no-effort-to-support-the-uk-in-joining-the-cptpp

    CPTPP would represent a comprehensive FTA so Article XXiV could (and should) be used. US and EU will obviously kick up a fuss and I’m sure a lot of lawyers will get involved but perhaps you could specify exactly what you are worried about?

    I can see a Scottish Whisky exporter might be nervous and I get that – we need clarity but sadly we’re not getting that! I’m fully aware that the “info” being given out to businesses is shockingly inadequate.

    Stockpiling of Scottish Whisky by Japanese importers might be happening – I dunno, not a sector I cover. That is only a stop-gap as well of course but those businesses should certainly be doing that – that’s obviously far from ideal but you’d be a very foolish business to be just keeping your fingers crossed that we Remain.

    Also worth mentioning that in a Corbyn “Turkey” deal we’d be in an even worse position than WTO – possibly why folks trust Corbyn even less than May over Brexit?

    Given the lack of time I don’t see us joining CPTPP at 11:00:01pm on 29Mar’19 – I wish we could announce that today (or better, months ago) in order to give some clarity to businesses and public but clearly we’re not where I hoped we’d be.

    Unlike Remain I don’t have a crystal ball. However, I do know the “process” options available to us and respect other countries will look out for their own interests in the same way we should.

  18. Apologies folks – I’ve suffered another lost post, so the two posts highlighting @Trevors memory failings regarding the cut and past trade deals appear to be incomplete.
    There was an initial post which went astray, roughly repeated here. This should therefore be read as the first in series of three.

    “Other countries playing hardball on trade negotiations – totally as expected! No surprise.”

    @Trevor Warne
    February 9th, 2019 at 10:36 am

    “As a single nation we can photocopy every deal EU already has and can finish off all the deals EU has started on much quicker then they can (photocopying what is currently in place)…… Taking back control of the photocopier is simply step1.”

    @Trevor Warne
    September 1st, 2017 at 1:50 pm

    Obviously, the @Trevors are only now pretending that this was ‘totally as expected!’, as back in 2017 they assured us that the DIT photocopier would be glowing red hot with all those copied trade deals.

    In addition, from the same post, they said this:

    “@ Various – trade deals. EU-Japan just finished round 18 of talks, have some understandings but still some way from a deal (CETA took 7years). Japan should be keen to score a deal with UK (probably before EU deal has passed through the 27 states upper-lower houses, regions, etc) ”

    The EU/Japan deal was approved by the EU parliament in December 2018, and came into force on February 1st 2019.

    Another argument is therefore quietly dismantled.

    I think it was @theexterminatingdalek who described this as a bit of a tortoise and hare scenario. All we need to do is wait, and all the fallacies are exposed.

    Yet still they come.

  19. Some very interesting stuff on Brexit here this morning:-

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0002g61

    Lord Bew @ 16.23 is very interesting on GFA , the actual parties to it, and the less than helpful intervention of the EU in the Border /GFA interface.

  20. @Old Nat re an FTA with the USA

    No I had not seen that link. It is to me frightening. Yesterday I saw the film “Vice” which among other things was about how big American business tries to fix the terms of the political debate and the nature of the public response to it, Corbyn needs to be scared of what he may enable.

  21. @ EOTW – In Mother Russia we train meerkats how to use the photo-copier, very cheap labour ;)

    Sadly though we haven’t been able to build a time machine yet – perhaps ALEC could lend us his one, we can pay in US$ or Roubles.

    Anyway, there should be a special place in hell for “Chicken Little” and “EU ducky luvvies” spreading “sky is falling” nonsense.

    We Russian bots love KFC and crispy aromatic duck – good snacks ya for watching the rugby!

  22. @TOH Yes, I had realised that you are by inclination opposed to big government and that this was one of your grounds for wanting BREXIT, What is your take on regulation, international treaties and climate change? I would have thought this was one area where your concern for wildlife might conflict with your dislike of regulation. but maybe not.

  23. Here is the first line of GATT Article 24:

    “1. The provisions of this Agreement shall apply to the metropolitan customs territories of the contracting parties….”

    Note the terms ‘customs territories’ and ‘contracting parties’ – they are plural, and the use of ‘contracting’ is inserted because two or more sovereign customs territories must be involves in the invoking of Article 24.

    If you are in any doubt about this interpretation, the 1947 GATT Treaty which includes Article 24, was updated by the subsequent ‘Understanding on the Interpretation of Article XXIV of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1994’.

    Clause 1 of this understanding reads –
    “1. Customs unions, free-trade areas, and interim agreements leading to the formation of a customs union or free-trade area, to be consistent with Article XXIV, must satisfy, inter alia, the provisions of paragraphs 5, 6, 7 and 8 of that Article.”

    A country cannot form a customs union or free trade area on it’s own – it has to have at least two contracting parties, and the subsequent clauses in the 1994 Understanding make this clear.

    Again, I can understand why posters on a discussion board can be ignorant of the detailed legal ramifications of the GATT treaties, but I struggle to grasp how politicians and former ministers can remain in such ignorance.

  24. @EoR 0- “I think you’re overthinking the use of the T word.”

    It’s a bit of fun really. Just exposing the lunacy of it all. :)

  25. Some of these things may or not affect how people in NI see Irish unity.

    One may be the report into the RHI. If my memory is right the inquiry found: nepotism in the appointments of Spads: a failure to take minutes of meeting involving sensitive political decisions: widespread incompetence including setting a subsidy rate higher than the cost of the fuel: this situation allowed corruption to creep in with empty sheds being heated,for example.

    “Legacy” issues will come to the fore.The inquest into the Ballymurphy murders will continue.There are many more inquests to be heard,some waiting more than 40 years.

    Neither the UK nor Irish governments want there to be accountability into the dirty war that was the Troubles. A large number of people died in custody in Ireland. In NI there was some collusion of the ordinary police service with the UDA / UFF though many police were honest men with integrity. Some members of the UDR colluded with paramilitaries or committed crimes.The police Special Branch ran informers and allowed intelligence gathered to be used in assassinations and murders of innocent Catholics.MI 5 behaved in this way also and so did a branch of the Army .

    Stormont is dysfunctional and may not be capable of being revived. People in NI may want a reformed Stormont or rule by Westminster which may well be viewed as dysfunctional.

    Meanwhile it is clear that the UK is ill prepared for no deal while the EU will let the Irish decide what steps to take with regard to the backstop

  26. @ ALEC – “Another argument is therefore quietly dismantled.”

    That being the argument that trade deals take forever, as claimed by Remain?

    Sure, I was surprised how quick EU wrapped up Japan. Just shows deals can be done a lot quicker than Remain think!

    Thanks again for going through my posts, your saving me a lot of time busting various Remainer myths.

  27. @Trevors – “PS Thank you ALEC for giving us the definitions of “Treason”, one of which was: “The action of betraying someone or something.””

    Indeed. It’s clear you have failed to understand the post. In relation to Brexit, there is no defined Brexit to betray. That was the point you missed.

    “@ HIRETON – so Japan are playing hardball?!? Who is surprised by that?”

    Umm,….you were. See previous posts.

  28. CHARLES

    @”, Corbyn needs to be scared of what he may enable.”

    He is viscerally opposed to any TA with USA which looks remotely like that outlined by Huff Post.

    That is why he wants UK to stay in the CU-so EU will protect him from TAs like that which may be signed by a rabid right wing Tory successor to TM.

    Safe inside the EU External Trade Barrier, but no longer a member of the EU political institutions which he hates, JC & J McD will set about constructing their State owned & directed Command Economy inside Fortress Britain.

    Foreign Trade is of no interest to him.

    Foreign Policy is-we will hear a lot about that under old Corby.

  29. @TW

    I think the sign in the articles is disgraceful too. I imagine every poster on this site would agree too.

    I don’t particularly care about pollsters asking questions about ‘betrayal’, nor what the public think either. I think for myself.

  30. @Trevors – “That being the argument that trade deals take forever, as claimed by Remain?”

    It’s pointless, but as an exercise in basic comprehension, try re-reading the post and see if you can spot the argument that was dismantled.

  31. Oh, I have spotted a mistake I made though.

    EU-Japan deal is an EPA not a full FTA so when I said:

    “EU (-Japan) deal has passed through the 27 states upper-lower houses, regions, etc”

    That was wrong – even meerkats make mistakes!

    Important differences on “trade deals” depending on their depth and breadth of scope. EPA is “middle-ish” but that does mean it has an easier ratification process from EU side.

    EU-Canada deal (more comprehensive) is only provisionally applied as it has to go through the full process. Doesn’t stop companies using the terms of EU-Canada trade deal (which debunks the myth that US/others would block “provisional” agreements)

    Luckily Canada also in CPTPP which also conveniently debunks the “myth” that the EU-Canada deal prevents Canada doing a deal with UK.

    Canada also in NAFTA of course but fortunately the UK joining NAFTA idea never gained much traction.

    Wow, between ALEC and myself we’ve debunked so much of the Remain nonsense today – good work I’d say!

    ALEC – do you know how to work a photocopier? If so fancy coming out of retirement for a few days at end of March ;)
    (of course we use the internet these days – photocopier is a figurative term. you can clearly type and pull out info so job at DIT for you if you want to top up your pension!)

  32. @ ALEC – “A country cannot form a customs union or free trade area on it’s own – it has to have at least two contracting parties”

    Did you think it only needed one?!? :-) :-)

    It’s hard to keep up with the nonsense that Planet Remain believe but I’d had thought needing 2+ was pretty obvious and I’m sure

    “(most Leave) posters on a discussion board, (Leave) politicians and former (Leave) ministers” know that.

    Yet again it seems Remain “remain in such ignorance”

    but they do say it is bliss!

  33. Colin

    I largely agree with you about Corbyn’s goals (although I think the CU was mainly for building a coalition behind him). His idea is autarchy, and FT is an appendix (or rather appending) to it.

    If he really thinks that he could implement any kind of command economy … Well, there is no institutional framework to implement it, and there is no pressure to have it (but Brexit may create it…).

    Also command economy degenerates to a pseudo-Keynesian thing if it is not complemented (I know it is a contradiction) with direct democracy.

    An autarchic Britain would be an absolute disaster – but it is quite picant how JC and free traders meet in an alliance.

  34. “Did you think it only needed one?!? :-) :-)

    It’s hard to keep up with the nonsense that Planet Remain believe but I’d had thought needing 2+ was pretty obvious and I’m sure..”

    It was the trevs who thought otherwise:

    “Trade won’t stop if we don’t have a trade deal with country X. We will need to use Article XXIV of WTO as a “stop-gap” and hold our nerve – simples ;)”

  35. @RONALD OLDEN

    There’s message for you from AW at the top of this page: ” resist the natural temptation to assume that the polls you’d like to be accurate are the ones that are correct, and that the others must be wrong.”

  36. Toby Ebert

    Can’t believe I’m defending Ronald!

    But he said nothing about preferring one poll over another, rather suggested that polling on current methodology suggests that none of them are accurate.

    Of course, in one of his former incarnations, he might have made that point a little more “basically”. :-)

  37. CORBYN’S OFFER

    I thought this was quite a clever move. He’s offered TM help with Brexit, thus keeping to the manifesto commitment to implement Brexit. But keeping to the CU aim, which TM currently can’t agree to because of her ERG/DUP problem.

    I still think the most likely outcome is LAB giving a free vote to their MPs (as all parties should on an issue like this) and something like TM’s current deal passing, with some LAB support outgunning ERG/DUP opposition.

    LAB will argue that they can achieve a CU during the actual trade negotiations that follow official Brexit.

  38. @OLDNAT

    Oh yes he does: “appear to have been a noticeable shift to the Tories (or more correctly away from Labour) “

  39. @CHARLES

    “@TOH What is your take on regulation, international treaties and climate change? I would have thought this was one area where your concern for wildlife might conflict with your dislike of regulation. but maybe not.”

    I think there’s a great deal of difference between effective regulation, and over-regulation. The EU specialise in the latter, bolting more and more blankets of regulation onto industry with little vision of the eventual outcome.

    For the true conservationist – not the EU funded types – Brexit offers a break from the over-regulated CAP and afterthought sticky plaster greening measures. Rip it all down and start again is what I say and focus on the outcome, not servicing the bureaucrats’ empire.

  40. JoB

    These regulations that you think are too many, attempt to impose conservation measures, like amounts of ground not to be intensively cropped.

    What a silly comment:- EU-funded conservationists. Presumably you mean those that run the Habitats Directive, and once they retire the £39 bn to pay their pensions you will revoke.

  41. @ DAVWEL

    My comments are not silly, it’s just you can’t help being rather patronising.

    The catalogue of failure is well illustrated by the decline in farmland biodiversity in the UK and EU speaks for itself. Just look at the tragic loss of biodiversity in Ireland just to see how effective the CAP is at destroying biodiversity!

  42. @Hireton – It’s a tactic.

    I’m quite content if the Trevs want to paint me as some kind of fool when I point out the gaping holes in their knowledge and understanding of what they have previously posted and claimed as fact. I understand what this signifies.

    From the start they appeared to adopt that kind of approach on here, and each time they have been caught out, the response is the same – denigrate their opponents and then chuck out streams of chaff, the vast majority of which isn’t relevant to the point in hand. I guess the hope is that people then engage with the chaff, and forget the original point of contention. It’s a classic of it’s kind, but quite transparent.

    A very good example is given in their 1.59pm post, where a point about their mistake in claiming that Japan would sign a cut and paste deal with the UK before the deal with the EU was ratified, magically transforms into a claim that the progress towards the Japan-EU deal demonstrates remainers were wrong and that trade deals can be done quickly.

    For the record, the EU-Japan process took seven years.

  43. JiB

    Since, as we all know, correlation is not the same as causation, it would be helpful if you could link to studies which demonstrate that CAP causes more diversity reduction than previous national policies.

    That may be the case, but without the evidence, folk like me who aren’t expert in the field, won’t be able to judge the accuracy of your assertion.

    Of course, since you will reject any research conducted by scientists funded by governments (those you amusingly describe as bureaucrats, and I will be deeply suspicious of research funded by business, there may not be much mutually acceptable evidence.

  44. @ all those actually discussing polling (you know who you are)

    I thought Ronald Olden had a very valid point. The YouGov poll does at least have close to 2000 participants, but the MORI one with only about 1000 really is starting to feel a bit thin, especially with so many people exclused as not likely to vote. If you look at the tables, the actual final VI for Con and Lab is based on only about 230 voters each. Even without systematic biases, the pure statistical uncertainty on that is huge, easily enough to account for a 6% difference from ‘reality’.

  45. @Hireton – I suppose it’s also worth pointing out that with “..but I’d had thought needing 2+ was pretty obvious…” the @Trevs finally seem to acknowledge that the UK can’t use Article 24 for tariff free trade.

    Again, the pivot is just chaff.

  46. @Oldnat

    Sorry, I’m watching the rugby and haven’t got time to gather that information, but Google CAP and Biodiversity Decline and you will see plenty of reading material to get started with.

    Main issues I have with CAP

    Money for old rope, farmers get the subsidy even if they don’t deliver environmental outcomes

    General state of the countryside is poor on CAP farms, poorly mIntained or abandoned hedgerows, rivers and streams poached to hell etc, rivers full of sh*t and silt

    Yes, good farmers do join the Agri Environment schemes and deliver outcomes, and post Brexit I really hope the PES model incentivises them further and the bad boys suffer instead of being subsidised to destroy the environment.

  47. JiB

    No problem – any time will do.

    Problem with just googling, is that lots of the reports may have been written by bureaucrats or lobbyists, so I need an unbiased expert such as yourself to help weed out the chaff.

  48. @Oldnat

    How nice of you to be so complementary.

  49. Trigguy

    I’m not sure that the number polled is necessarily the critical factor.

    If the really relevant characteristics that influence choices aren’t included in the weightings, then the sample might be distorted, regardless of size.

    For example (and very theoretically!) if being more/less introvert/extrovert was a factor that influenced choice, and one of those types was more/less likely to respond to pollsters, then their sample might be very distorted.

    Of course, any such process would probably make polling so complex that it would be uneconomic for the pollsters.

    They are businesses and, so long as their clients are happy to pay for their product ….…..

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