There are two new voting intention polls out today – YouGov for the Times, and Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor in the Evening Standard.

Ipsos MORI‘s topline figures are CON 38%(nc), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Friday and Tuesday (1st-5th), and changes are from MORI’s last poll back in December.

YouGov‘s topline figures are CON 41%(+2), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 10(-1), UKIP 4%(-2). Fieldwork was on Sunday and Monday, and changes are from YouGov’s last poll in mid-January.

This does not, of course, offer us much insight on what is really happening. At the weekend a lot of attention was paid to a poll by Opinium showing a big shift towards the Conservatives and a 7 point Tory lead. Earlier in the week Opinium also published a previously unreleased poll conducted for the People’s Vote campaign the previous week, which showed a four point Tory lead, suggesting their Observer poll was more than just an isolated blip. Today’s polls do little to clatify matters – MORI show no change, with the parties still neck-and-neck. YouGov show the Tories moving to a seven point lead, the same as Opinium, but YouGov has typically shown larger Tory leads anyway of late so it doesn’t reflect quite as large a movement.

I know people look at polls hoping to find some firm evidence – the reality is they cannot always provide it. They are volatile, they have margins of error. Only time will tell for sure whether Labour’s support is dropping as events force them to take a clearer stance on Brexit, or whether we’re just reading too much into noise. As ever, the wisest advice I can give is to resist the natural temptation to assume that the polls you’d like to be accurate are the ones that are correct, and that the others must be wrong.

Ipsos MORI tables are up here, YouGov tables are here.


541 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Ipsos MORI voting intention polls”

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  1. @garj

    A remarkable post.

    On the one hand you say “so what” when the existing constitutional system provides a democratic result you don’t like but then argue that in reality you favour a much more radical constitutional settlement but as that isn’t compatible with the UK’s existing constitution you’re not that bothered about it. You then go on to say that in any event any settlement must ensure that Scotland’s status as a country must be reduced to the same status as an English county.

    So overall I’ll put you down as simply a British nationalist who is comfortable with the existing UK constitution.

  2. Apologies if this next link is a “repost” but appears a lot more info has been eeking out into the public domain.

    This one is interesting as it covers the feasibility of various Plan B’s, for a quick glance open the link and go to page 6. The whole report is a good summary of where we are on Brexit.

    https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8483#fullreport

    IMHO this is why the Norway+ idea has gained a bit of traction lately. Note the only option that doesn’t have at least one “pink” or “grey” box
    (NB Not everyone using the same colours for “traffic lights” it seems?!?)

    PS there is clearly some HMG “spin” in this article, there are some actual errors (deliberate or not?) and certainly errors by omission!

  3. @TECHNICOLOUROCTOBER

    If you are bothered about taxpayers money on foreign trips, take a look at Liam Fox.

    it is rather interesting that Cornwall that voted leave now wants to keep some form embassy with the EU open.

    https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/cornwall-cornish-embassy-eu-after-2425405

    So I am sure HUGO will not be happy with that either.

  4. I suspect that so many folk are so fed up with the two largest UK parties and Brexit, that if the SNP stood in elections south of the border they might well win some English seats. That would really upset the apple cart.

  5. @ WB61 – Yes, a good article. Glad to see more and more folks “working it out” even if applying their own bias!

    I’ll share a few more English humour jokes

    Based on the Visa advert:

    “The best food in life is local, for everything else there is the freezer”

    before the outrage, you need the follow up:
    “The many shop at Iceland, the few take holidays there”

    They can take our money, but they’ll never take our sense of humour!!

  6. WB61

    That article sounds about right. The bottom line is we don’t know how bad the chaos will be but the worst case is catastrophic. It can’t be ignored.

  7. HIRETON

    Missing the point a bit. The existing constitutional system hasn’t produced a result I don’t like; it enables the Scottish parliament to ask for whatever they want, but holding legally binding referenda is something reserved to Westminster and they are under no constitutional obligation to grant one, regardless of what MSPs may vote for.

    My other point is simply that Scotland is of a comparable size in terms of both economy and population as most of the NUTS regions of England. In the system of regional government which I would prefer Scotland would be one of about 13 regions and nations of the UK, and of no more importance than any of the others. I wouldn’t consider myself an English nationalist for believing that someone is no more important and deserving of special treatment or extra democratic representation for being Scottish than they are for being from the midlands, the North East, or the South West.

  8. @Trevs – “….but the TCD is a statement to “photocopy” or “roll-over” existing UK-Swiss trade terms on Brexit day (11pm 29Mar’19 as it currently stands).”

    Highly doubtful. If they were simple photocopies, HMG wouldn’t need NDAs, would they? Besides, HMG is already stating that they aren’t copies – just being ‘broadly the same’ or covering ‘the majority’ of goods etc.

    As I say, I’ll go a bit tortoise here and wait patiently to see what is actually in these agreements, satisfied that they won’t be 100% the same. You’ve been tripped up recently by exhuberant over confidence, so you might want to be a little more cautious, rather than believe the press statements or planet leave propo?

    “NB We will not be signing a S.Korea trade deal…”

    That’s right – that’s what we’ve been explaining to you. Since – oh – around 2016.

  9. “I suspect that so many folk are so fed up with the two largest UK parties….”

    Well we had a _very_large party at the weekend, but I have no figures on it’s national significance.

  10. sorry, Mastercard advert apparently!

    might have overdone the coffee today, I could blame the post Rugby beers but everyone is blaming Brexit for everything so I’ll go with that ;)

  11. @hugo
    Scotland is part of the UK.
    The UK is my country.
    You may not like it, but you and me are both British.
    Aberdeen, Aberystwyth,Aldershot…all places in our country.

    I would wish to take this one stage further. I am proud to be English in England (although with Scottish and Irish ancestors), and I am proud to be British in Britain, and I live in Europe and am proud to be European (with very distant French, Netherlandish and Italian ancestry). At the moment I can walk the streets of Aberdeen, Augsburg, Aldershot and Amiens as a citizen, but only for two more months, just because some have arbitrarily chosen to deprive me of that privilege. Will that affect my vote next time? Yes!

  12. @wb61

    Robert Peston has a similar view to Paul Waugh:

    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2275762586081807&id=1498276767163730

  13. @garj

    No, you are missing the point, entirely. But please carry on together with your Britnat chums as it is excellent. Tick, tock.

  14. RICHARDW@hugo: I would wish to take this one stage further. I am proud to be English in England (although with Scottish and Irish ancestors), and I am proud to be British in Britain, and I live in Europe and am proud to be European (with very distant French, Netherlandish and Italian ancestry). At the moment I can walk the streets of Aberdeen, Augsburg, Aldershot and Amiens as a citizen, but only for two more months, just because some have arbitrarily chosen to deprive me of that privilege. Will that affect my vote next time? Yes!

    Well said, that Englishman!

    On gets the impression that Hugo would happily join in with the EUSSR trope, but would not feel so happy to have his country described as the UKSSR.

  15. I am with PTRP and WB61.

    Mrs May is trying to renegotiate her own negotiated deal within a very short time frame and is wasting her own time within that time frame. Even if the EU were willing to renegotiate there is no certainty that Brexiteers will accept what is renegotiated.

    What the UK government wishes to achieve in renegotiation is an “alternative arrangements” to the backstop. Readers here will know that this is already in the WA. If it was possible for alternative arrangements to the backstop to be found that would already have happened.

    Mrs May must know all of this. It does not prevent her from setting up a group with support from civil servants to explore the possibility of finding these “alternative arrangements”.

    Mrs May’s discussion with Mr Corbyn will yield her little. She and he are too far apart for anything to come from it. Mrs May cannot change direction towards Labour without splitting her party and losing what little credibility she has left. Her talks with Corbyn exist to put pressure on those Brexiteers who might fear a soft Brexit and so support her WA ratification deal.

    It remains the case that the Conservative government and party is divided on what kind of relationship it wants with the EU.The EU is unwilling to offer anything to the UK on the backstop that it negotiated with the UK. It is willing to consider what proposals the UK government might put forward and to leave it to Ireland to state what is in its interest regarding those proposals. At present, it does not seem that May can make any proposal and the only changes the EU might make are to the PD.

  16. @ ALEC – “You’ve been tripped up recently”

    :-) :-)

    Yeah right!! Possibly too many beers y’day but I’m assuming you meant figuratively in this case! :-) :-)

    Regarding NDAs the Swiss side leaks like a sieve, but sure wait for all the (old) news on which Swiss finance companies are expanding in UK (and not just in London).
    I doubt you’ll read in the Graun but you never know?!?

    If CON have rediscovered the art of spin then there is large backlog of +ve (old) news they can drip feed out – Times, Torygraph, CityAM, CapX, etc. Maybe even FT – nope, pushing it there, they are Arch-Remain. Reuters fairly “neutral”, BBC swing both ways!

    I wasn’t on UKPR in 2016, something you frequently point out – but sure hold on to S.Korea and Turkey as EU trade deals we won’t be “rolling-over” (+ing). Remain do seem to love anecdotes and ignore the kind of trade we actually do with different countries (ie WTO with S.Korea and Turkey is just fine for UK).

    PS You’ve been an ostrich for years (head in sand). One of the Trevors is less kind and uses a German phrase for Remainers (“Arsch mit ohren”) Tortoise will do though, good to see you can join the Trevors and laugh at yourself :-) :-)

    @ DANNY – :-) :-)

    Please read WB61’s HuffPost link for some “logic”!

    @ HIRETON – I hope you have me down as an English Nativist (EN not BN!). Only Scots are allowed to be Nationalists and no one wants to be associated with the British version of SNP!

    Hopefully Farage’s new Brexit Party will do the job without ever being needed and then what is left of UKIP disappears and there is no longer any populist “soap box” for far-right extremism in England.

    IMHO Brexit is a fundamental change for Scotland and they should be allowed another vote. On the condition that NO means the end of the Barnett formula and from now on Scotland is treated as an “equal”. Hopefully that helps get a YES vote this time! After that then “Wir Shetland” of course!

  17. Plenty of polling of English seeing themselves as English and British but not European. Scots see themselves more as Scottish than British (a few more Scots than English pick European but it is still the “few” not the many!).

    but hey, who bothers with polling info on a polling forum!

  18. @ HIRETON – So is Peston trying to say Lehman should have been bailed out? Then what, keep bailing them out, keep the bubble going until it eventually popped even bigger.

    So we stay in EU until “populism” really spills over or the Euro finally blows the whole project up and we get whacked in the collateral damage? No thanks, better to take a bit of short-term disruption now and get out before the EU does become a “Lehman”

    The lesson from Lehman and the Great Recession was to change the economic model, not just pump new air back into the old one.

    Brexit, Trump, Corbyn, Salvini, AfD, etc all “populist reactions” to trying to keep ne0liberalism going.

    Anyway, good to see my suspicions about Peston being Arch-Remain confirmed – he’s fully bought into Project Fear and doing his Chicken Little and EU Ducky Luvvie bit!

  19. HUGO

    if the requirement to be “allowed” to send your leaders abroad is to stand in the whole of the UK rather than just selected parts of it, then based on 2017 only the Greens would qualify.

  20. It’s a completely pointless indication of anything, but I begin to notice a certain pattern in the G*d-awful BBC HYS comments.

    Two articles both released in the BBC business section at slightly different times. Firstly this about 7 hours ago:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47196387

    The top 10 HYS comments are all pro-Brexit and have a large vote ‘up’ to ‘down’ ratio.

    Then four hours ago, this was released:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47200688

    Th top 10 HYS comments are all anti-Brexit and have an equally large ‘up’ to ‘down’ ratio.

    Possible conclusions. The pro-Brexit bot farms* only work up until about 5pm. Seems a bit odd, but maybe. While anti-Brexit bot farms are only really effective in the evenings.

    Or perhaps, these are all generates by the same Russian bot farms which switch sides on a regular basis in order to generate even more confusion and conflict. Who knows? Who cares? Why do I ever even bother looking at HYS? Actually I can answer that, exactly to see whether the behaviour looks entirely artificial in this way. I wonder if anyone at the BBC tries to analyse this data and where the comments come from?

    * or whatever you wish to call them. I don’t believe many are genuine people.

  21. hugo@SHEVII: But Scotland’s trade with the rest of the UK is worth four times more than its trade with the EU. Yet Sturgeon wants to break the union with the UK (£50bn trade) and hook up with the EU (£13bn trade).

    A fact rarely mentioned by users of this argument is that a big proportion of that trade with the UK is financial services which are unaffected by customs regulations, and a further significant part is utilities (basically the electricity we export).
    In terms of physical goods, the only products for which the UK is a more important market are wood and paper products.

  22. Hireton

    “It is also amusing that those who say Brexit will be excellent for trade and industry (with virtually frictionless trade with the EU and expansion in other markets) in the same breath saying that an independent Scotland being an EU member will somehow endanger its trade with rUK.”

    These folk might also care to note that 76% of Canada’s exports go to the USA.

    On their “logic”, that would be a powerful argument against being in a union with the larger market next door.

    Of course, it isn’t. The constitutional relationship is irrelevant to the reality that trade is easier over shorter geographic distances – especially when both countries speak variants of the same language.

  23. Reading some of the comments above it is clear that Brexit is an alternative to P enlargement treatment. Quite unfortunate to prove British masculinity in this way.

  24. Garj

    “My other point is simply that Scotland is of a comparable size in terms of both economy and population as most of the NUTS regions of England.”

    You are referring to the NUTS1 regions. Since, across the EU, the aim is to divide larger states into roughly equivalent units (and a similar principle is applied to the NUTS2 level), your point is staggeringly obvious!

    Of course, the degree of similarity in terms of economy is a matter of opinion. Even excluding oil, Scotland has the 3rd most productive economy of all the UK NUTS1 regions.

    Scotland is also “of a comparable size in terms of both economy and population” to independent states within the EU, so it is unclear what point you are making.

    There are a variety of constitutional options that can be adopted. Your preferred option (which I once supported – along with many here) probably died when the Con/Lab/LD alliance agreed to water down the claims made for enhanced devolution after indyref.

    However, it remains a viable solution for the English polity (Wales could opt to join in if it wished).

    While I wouldn’t be so presumptuous as Hugo et al in prescribing solutions for others, it might be wise for those outwith the SE of England to seek constitutional sovereignty over some matters – especially post-Brexit.

  25. @oldnat

    It is interesting that our resident Britnats are so obtuse. I see the trevs are reinforcing the point.

  26. @Trevs – “Yeah right!! Possibly too many beers y’day but I’m assuming you meant figuratively in this case! :-) :-)”

    No – you’re memory is obviously getting shorter by the day. I could, if you really want me to, post again your various assertions about having 40 trade deals in place by March 29th and that one about the Japan/UK deal being signed before the Japan/EU one if you like, and then compare your predictions to the actual outcomes and see if you spot the difference?

    Like I say – I don’t really know why you have such a problem admiting you get these things wrong. There’s no shame in it – everyone makes mistakes now and then.

    Failure to accept such things, when they are put before you in simple black and white probably just makes people think you’ve got some kind of problem.

  27. One of the ironies of the SNP is it wants to be a independent nation free from the interference of its nearest and oldest neighbour.
    But wants to immediately give up its new found sovereignty in its headlong rush to rejoin the EU and presumably hand back it’s laws economy and so on back to Brussels.
    Which in turn will insist on a hard boarder on the English/Scottish boarder with possible serious economic effects on the Scottish people.
    So in effect we have a Nationalist party that is not really a Nationlist party that wants to be a independent country but wants to give up independence to be part of the Union. No wonder those SNP members in the HoC always seem rather confused.

  28. Hireton

    They aren’t necessarily obtuse. On anything other than the status of Scotland, most make intelligent points.

    But it isn’t really surprising that those who have been exposed to particular propaganda lines that are universally espoused by their political parties, accept them without really thinking about them.

    That’s a very normal human response.

    The Trevors are another matter.

    As a collective they all appear to be English Nationalists (and very obtuse ones at that). The one posting tonight, however describes itself as an “English Nativist”.

    That’s not a term we see used very often, as nativism is “the political idea that people who were born in a country are more important than immigrants”.

    As such, it’s an idea that is particularly attractive to racists, xenophobes and ethnic nationalists.

  29. @Trevor @Alec Thank you for sorting out my confusion. I should have looked up the link myself.

    “Of the whole sample, (1514) no deal was support 35% against 45% (DK 21%). Remaining was 45% support 39% against.

    This was roughly what I had thought was the case. Are we all agreed that whatever the situation was at the referendum, more people now oppose no deal than want it?

  30. Times reporting a “Yougov poll using its MRP methodology:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/02/11/tories-unlikely-gain-enough-seats-solve-brexit-woe

    Not clear immediately what assumptions have been made about Brexit and Tory leadership.

  31. Turk

    The confusion is entirely yours.

    If you choose to define your use of “independence” as some archaic 19th century usage in the modern world, that’s entirely a matter for you. It makes your comments bizarre and pointless, but you are probably well experienced in having your comments viewed in that way.

    It is probably the case that you have no comprehension of the concept of pooling sovereignty, and would reject it if you did.

    However, for many Europeans (Scots amongst them) the idea of having sovereignty in a wider union makes a lot of sense.

    That you are a separatist and I am a unionist may well confuse your circuits and cause a malfunction, but you really should have been programmed with better AI facilities.

  32. @Charles – yes, I think this poll, along with most others, is pretty clear that no deal in not going to gain that much support. It’s a dangerous gamble for the PM to take, and could inflict significant and lasting damage on her party. The trouble with polls and real voters is that they have no loyalty. Even if leave voters currently say they want a no deal, if they get it, and things don’t work out very well, they won’t give May the credit for giving them what they asked for – they’ll just punished whoever made the mess.

    Being a politician is a pretty thankless task.

  33. @Hireton – Joined Yougov in autumn 2017 and a pretty sure i filled in this poll. Was the first one since joining Yougov where i had a mock-up of the choice you have on the ballot at an election. The candidates on there seemed to be the ones from 2017 so not necessarily what would come up in a vote in the near future but what else can you put on there?

    FWIW i live in a CON/LAB marginal and put LAB down again. That’s only due to it being a marginal and the Labour MP being a good one though, elsewhere it would be LIB DEM.

  34. Frosty

    Your assumption is correct. YG said ” We do not yet know what candidates would run in a new election, and so we provided the 2017 candidate lists under the prompt: “The following people were the parliamentary candidates standing in the election on June8th 2017. Imagine there was an election tomorrow and the same or similar candidates ran, who would you vote for?” “

  35. YouGov’s methodology probably explains why their MRP poll shows a Con gain from Labour in Peterborough. Given that the 2017 candidate has just been sentenced to prison, her name on the mock ballot paper may well have had some effect!

    One further point – the underlying poll behind this has Con 5 points ahead at 39% to 34%. While that isn’t good for labour, it is very similar to YouGov’s polling in the past 3 months, where they have been showing Con 4 or 5 points ahead on average. So this doesn’t support the idea of a shift in the past week or so.

  36. New thread on MRP model.

  37. Passtherockplease,
    ” In her view leaving the EU with or without a deal would be bad but the the Tories disintegrating would be worse”

    What everyone seems to overlook is the potential harm to the tories if thy DELIVER brexit. There seems to be a wide consenus amongst MPs that leaving the EU is bad for the country. if it is bad enough, then no MP who voted to make it happern will be safe.

    “Labour’s problems are that they have to win leave supporting seats in the east and west midlands”

    I dont agree, Yes, I see this issue, but labour’s first problem was that it has lost its way as the party of the left. Corbyn was and is popular because he represents a new vision for the left. His second string at the last election was because he was more pro remain than the conservatives, and held out the possibility of remain. Without both these things, labour would have lost badly at the last election (ok, still come second).

    Yep, The disenchanted who voted leave in order to change society and get more of the wealth coming back to them…need to be got back on side, But the fact is brexit would be a step in exactly the wrong direction.

    Since you like Iraq as an analogy, I will give you tudor england under Edward. Been reading another historical fiction novel by Sansom, set at this time, where his hero gets involved in rebellions by the peasants against the gentry. The novels all take a historic event and weave a story about it. In this case, the nation is being bled dry in taxes to pay for foreign wars which have been going badly for decades. The gentry (ie the ones who own the land) have been throwing people off land and replacing them with sheep, because it makes more money. No doubt the state heartily approves, because it needs to make money and cloth in the end is a valuable export good.

    Also has been the dissolusion of the monasteries for both political reasons to ensure the sovereignty of the UK separate from control by the chuch in Rome, but also to pinch their wealth, again to fund the wars. But this wholly disrupted local economies, and meant that a largely closed sytem locally, where a wealthy abbey dominated a local economy, is replaced by an absentee landlord taking money out of the local economy.

    The causes of complaint by the peasants (cf northern voters now) are the loss of historic job opportunities and wealth going elsewhere. Interestingly, the rebels remain loyal to the crown, and see the ‘gentry’ as their enemy. If only they can just talk to the crown, lord protector and council, they are sure they will understand their complaint and deal with the evil gentry. Yet in fact, all their problems stem from the overarching policy of the crown.

    So with brexit. EU is seen as the enemy, but actually its policies are set by the policy of the Uk govenment, which however brexiteers are asking to solve the problem by getting rid of the EU. There is no solution from doing so.

  38. @Sam

    These actions were rightly viewed by Catholics as attacks on their communities and were great recruitment stimulants for the IRA. When it became known that
    there was collusion between military personnel and Protestant terrorists to murder Catholics there could not be any possibility of anything other than a long,dirty war.

    You’re 100% right. I grew up in a rather shady Unionist (UVF) family (I was a child when the Troubles kicked off) and any time there was an internment trawl, we were tipped off in advance by the contacts in the RUC and my father and grown up brothers skipped off to Glasgow until the fun was over.

  39. SO why does TM pander to the ERG. They are the ones who opposed her in the Tory leadership election, they are the most consistent rebels against here on brexit votes. Why not ignore them completely, take no deal off the table, and go for softer brexit or even peoples vote. She will never please them so why does she always try to placate them.

  40. Ken Clarke on R4 just said he thinks we will revoke and then try again later.

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