Opinium’s fortnightly poll in the Observer today has topline voting intention figures of CON 41%(+4), LAB 34%(-6), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 7%(nc). Fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday, and changes are from Opinium’s previous poll in mid-January, conducted straight after May lost her vote on the deal, but won her no confidence vote.

A seven point Conservative lead is the largest since the election. While it is not significantly larger than the 5 or 6 point leads YouGov have been showing this month, it’s a noticable change to Opinium’s previous recent polls, which have tended to show Labour and Conservative roughly neck-and-neck.

As ever, one should be a little cautious about reading too much into a single poll. Survation’s poll for Thursday’s Daily Mail had fieldwork conducted on Wednesday, so actually overlaps the fieldwork period for this poll and showed a one point Labour lead with no meaningful swing from Labour to Conservative. It would be wise to wait and see if subsequent polls confirm whether public opinion has shifted against Labour, or whether this is just an outlier.

Also, be cautious about reading too much into what has caused the change. We really don’t know if there has been a change yet, let alone exactly where it has come from and why (not that it will stop people assuming things). It has been two weeks since Opinium’s last poll, and an awful lot has happened – so one cannot pin the change on any one specific event. Neither can cross-breaks really give much guidance (as Michael Savage notes in the Observer, Labour are down among both remainers and leavers… though discerning any signal from the noise of crossbreaks would be difficult even if the change was all on one side).

The full tables from Opinium are here.


589 Responses to “Opinium/Observer – CON 41, LAB 34, LDEM 8”

1 2 3 12
  1. Patriotic drum beating has started. Shame on them.

  2. @ NickP

    And it would appear the pipes, the pipes are calling if the Irish press are anything to go by. The shame is on everybody.

  3. May to call another snap election on her Brexit deal ?

  4. I don’t think it is an outlier, but I also don’t think it would be the outcome “if elections were held tomorrow”.

    My opinion yesterday that the tables wouldn’t tell us much more than the headline was wrong. There are many interesting bits, especially in the past voting sheets (it has to be added that when comparing the 2015 and 2017 voting there seems to be an issue – well, I think there is a slight sampling bias.).

  5. Good afternoon all from a rather mild and sunny Winchester.

    I miss the frost because I do like a bit of crunch under my shoes in the morning.

    Okay so we move on..

    AW
    “Also, be cautious about reading too much into what has caused the change. We really don’t know if there has been a change yet, let alone exactly where it has come from and why (not that it will stop people assuming things”
    ______________

    With Brexit dominating the entire political agenda then what else would cause such a shift in the polls? (If they are correct that is)

    Putting aside Labour’s domestic agenda (which I largely agree with) they have been found wanting over Brexit. Yes the Tories are divided over Brexit but for the principle opposition party of the day to be more divided over Brexit than the government then ol Corby really does have some major issues.

    I don’t really care about VI right now anyway…i just want what I voted for and that was to boot the EU out of my life once and for all.

  6. The press is widely misreporting the Nissan decision.

  7. One would have to go quite far to match the level of British exceptionalism, invented grievance, false information and Germanophobia delivered by Daniel Kawczynski.

    Britain helped to liberate half of Europe. She mortgaged herself up to eye balls in process. No Marshall Plan for us only for Germany. We gave up war reparations in 1990. We put £370 billion into EU since we joined. Watch the way ungrateful EU treats us now. We will remember.

    – or from Lord Saatchi in the Lords.

    The rumoured snap election of 6 June seems quite likely, given the manufactured propaganda on display.

    The “British” once defined themselves via their extensive empire. Now they have defined themselves via the World Wars, though they have quietly forgotten that those wars were in defence of the Empire, and now portray themselves as defenders of liberty.

  8. @Laszlo

    “The press is widely misreporting the Nissan decision.”

    Didn’t you know? Misreporting is the new reporting. Facts no longer matter. Experts no longer matter. It doesn’t matter what is happening or why, all that matters is that everything that does happen is distilled to uncannily match the viewpoint of the writer or publication.

    Ultimately, there will be a reckoning. But don’t expect any lessons to be learnt as everyone will either conveniently forget what they were peddling at the time, or blame someone else for the inevitable meltdown.

  9. @DEZ

    “May to call another snap election on her Brexit deal ?”

    Because her last attempt was such a resounding success?

  10. Old at,

    “Those wars were in defence of the Empire, and now portray themselves as defenders of liberty.”

    That is both grossly inaccurate and grossly unfair.

    For all Britains many flaws, not least how we created and ran the Empire, we neither sought or started either war.

    The first was very much a confrontation between Imperial powers, a throw back from the early 19th century fought with the technology of the early 20th but the seconds coming after the carnage of the first and the depression was of a wholly different character.

    In WW2 we found ourselves facing two expansionist military dictatorships which were savage in both their ideology and inhumanity.

    We may have started as an imperial power forced to fight for survival but over the next five years we literally became a nation fighting for freedom in the fullest sense.

    We do linger too much on a nostalgic and often jingoistic version of the last war, but by default rather than design from the devastation of the war we forged a new world order…the UN, NATO, the EU, international courts, human rights a respect for democracy and human rights, the gradual unwinding of Colonialism.

    In a very real sense, facing Hitler and Hirohito we looked into tha abyss and feared what we saw. Like the response to the first war, the second altered how we saw the world and ourselves.

    The same events that created the “We Won the War!” Mentality also created “Not in My Name”, it equally created “Take Back Control” as “The People’s Vote”.

    In equally measure the events that make some turn to narrow nationalism if not isolationism have also created those who favour internationalism and cooperation.

    To portray us as defenders of Empire particularly in WW2 is little different from Trump lumping both sides together at Charlottesville!

    It isn’t that simple, it never is!

    Peter.

  11. OLDNAT

    “One would have to go quite far to match the level of British exceptionalism, invented grievance, false information and Germanophobia delivered by Daniel Kawczynski.

    That is of course just your opinion, I suspect a majority of the British might agree with him on some things at least. For example I would certainly agree with “Britain helped to liberate half of Europe. She mortgaged herself up to eye balls in process.” If you disagree with that you live in cloud cuckoo land, yes, it was also about defending Empire as well, but the main thrust was defeating fascism and surviving as a nation. If you are not proud of the way we stood up to AH then you live in a very different place to me.

    Where I disagree with him is when he says “We put £370 billion into EU since we joined. Watch the way ungrateful EU treats us now. We will remember.”

    We put £370 billion in thinking we would get something for our money, more fool us, at least compared with the advantage Germany has had from membership. Nor do I think the EU are ungrateful, they are just behaving as they always have. It is an inward looking, undemocratic and corrupt organisation.

  12. Is there a Blairite/Centrist connection between the CEO of Opinium who wrote a linked article in the Observer and Chukka? If so I think we should be told.

  13. Peter Cairns

    I trust that you would agree with my main point that “the “British” once defined themselves via their extensive empire. Now they have defined themselves via the World Wars”.

    Whatever individual members of the armed forces thought about the purpose of their participation, they didn’t decide the purposes of war. Japan was a “problem” because it threatened British imperial possessions in Asia, Italy threatened them in the Mediterranean (and the route to India).

    The character of these regimes was insignificant, and had support among a significant section of the population. The UK could have chosen to intervene in the Spanish Civil War, but chose not to. That hardly suggests a burning desire for liberty among UK politicians.

  14. RAF

    “Ultimately, there will be a reckoning. ”

    Since quoting old poems seems to be fashionable at the moment:

    “When all its work is done the lie shall rot
    The truth is great, and shall prevail
    When none care whether it prevail or not.”

    (Coventry Patmore) (round about 1880, I think; plus ca change)

  15. ToH

    If you believe that the UK declared war in WWII other than to defend its own interests, then you do, indeed, live in a different place to me.

    Your place would be cuckoo-land, if you believe that war was embarked on in a noble self-sacrifice of people and money to save Europe from fascism, then you are historically unaware.

    If you did have historical awareness you would also ridicule Kawczynski’s “No Marshall Plan for us only for Germany.”

    The UK got 26% of the US Marshall Plan money, France got 19%, while West Germany received only 11%.

  16. Peter Carins (SNP)

    I have to say your response seems to grant rather more altruism to the motives of the British ruling class than I think they would themselves admit.

    Churchill himself was quite explicit that the war was about defending the British Empire from German encroachment.

    As he said at the outbreak of war, “Dreams of the future are blurred. But the main objective is clear, I repeat, London will be in danger and in the high position I shall occupy, it will fall to me to save the capital and save the empire.”

    Defence of the Empire and the capital were indivisible in their minds. There was no distinction worth making for as far as they were concerned, one could not exist without the other. And Germany was considered, both in WW1 and WW2 an existential threat to the British Empire. Their savagery was irrelevant, not least considering the British Empire’s own record of savagery that was ongoing and persisting, as young Ross Greer MSP pointed out in reference to Churchill’s own racial-genocidal inclinations and response to the Bengal famine that, as in Ireland, was firmly stamped “Made In Britain”.

    The reason the British almost went to war with the US in the early 1930’s was for precisely the same ultimately economic reasons of defence of Empire (ie territory, resources, labour and loot).

    (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Red)

    Imperial powers do not risk all, let alone their money and manpower, on altruistic idealism. They do so because the nature of that imperial project inevitably puts them on a collision course with other competing powers. And that is what both wars were about from the point of view of the British ruling class. How it was dressed up for public consumption, for those that would do the dying,whether regarding poor Belgian babies, or poor Poland, etc, is purely window dressing.

  17. OLDNAT

    “Your place would be cuckoo-land, if you believe that war was embarked on in a noble self-sacrifice of people and money to save Europe from fascism, then you are historically unaware.”

    No just have a very different view to you. As usual you try to twist what people say when you are caught writing a piece of rubbish.I said “the main thrust was defeating fascism and surviving as a nation.” I also said ” “Britain helped to liberate half of Europe. She mortgaged herself up to eye balls in process.”

    If you disagree with that, I think it is you who are historically unaware. I have read extensively about World War II and it’s causes, it is a particular interest of mine and has been all my long life.

    I suggest that you just accept that we have very different views of this history.

  18. These parallel arguments remind me to this 2013 psychology paper in which participants were calculating properly when the question corresponded to their beliefs, but then “tweaked” the mathematical operation when it contradicted their beliefs.

    I have both epistemological and methodological problems with the article, but it is quite interesting.

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2319992#.XFbd58fji-o.facebook

  19. ToH

    I wouldn’t for a moment expect you to agree with me!

    Every “country” (define how you wish) or political unit has its own creation myths [1] which its rulers often adapt over years to represent their view of how they want to be seen.

    It’s a very ancient form of propaganda, designed to rally a populace around a common perception of themselves, which the rulers can use to drive forward their own agenda.

    Sometimes these messages are successfully incorporated into the “national” psyche, sometimes less successfully.

    I fully understand that those who swallow such propaganda wholesale, fully believe it as they have internalised the message.

    [1] Some of the more interesting ones are those of a sexual nature! The invented kinship ones are much less so.

  20. I think this poll shows the first signs of the major strategic error by Labour, even when taking a narrow party political view (never mind the national interest view). Once Brexit has happened, all those who lent their votes to Labour because it seemed the best hope for Remain, plus long-standing Labour voters disgusted with Corbyn’s flagrant disregard for the opinions of the vast majority of members and large majority of Labour voters will see no reason to continue voting Labour. Post Brexit, irrespective of the disaster befalling the country (o, indeed, because of it), Corbyn’s failure to make any attempt to resist or mitigate Tory incompetence will get its just deserts.

    I’d be interest in some detail about the ongoing reports of declines in Labour’s membership. It is really the old guard leaving in disgust? Or is it the bright new Momentum tendency seeing Corbyn for what he really is and leaving disillusioned?

  21. @ Phil Levy

    Is there a Blairite/Centrist connection between the CEO of Opinium who wrote a linked article in the Observer and Chukka? If so I think we should be told.

    My guess is that you already know that Chuka Umunna is the chairman of a new centrist think tank called Progressive Centre UK…. and James Endersby is CEO of Opinium and an advisory board member of Progressive Centre UK.

  22. By my understanding, it seems to me that Labour Leave voters are seemingly more likely to abandon Labour than it’s Remainers.

    Could this in the main be a re-alignment of the historic blue collar Labour voters who originally deserted to UKIP, then returned to Labour in 2017 because of Corbyn’s re-assurances over Brexit, now deciding that only the Tories will deliver any form of Brexit and any form is better than no form?.

  23. To judge from tOpinium. the economic argument against BREXIT is won. Only UKiP voters seem more likely to think that it will benefit the UK economy than harm it. How come more people are not changing their minds? Some leavers think the harm will not last long, some are ‘prepared to pay a cost and some will pay any price. And who is most likely to pay any price? The retired and unemployed who do not have good jobs to lose. This part of the voting public can perhaps view the news that 29% of firms have plans to move some or all of their business overseas with detachment.

  24. Useful table in “What UK thinks” of opinion in Opinium polls on Corbyn’s response to Government on Brexit – from June 2018 to now.

    Disapproval has gone from 47% to 60%. Approve down 5% : DK down 4%. Neither down 5%

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-approve-or-disapprove-of-the-way-that-jeremy-corbyn-has-responded-to-the-governments-handling-of-brexit/?groups%5B0%5D%5B0%5D=Strongly%2Bapprove&groups%5B0%5D%5B1%5D=Somewhat%2Bapprove&groups%5B1%5D%5B3%5D=Somewhat%2Bdisapprove&groups%5B1%5D%5B4%5D=Strongly%2Bdisapprove

  25. By my understanding, it seems to me that Labour Leave voters are seemingly more likely to abandon Labour than it’s Remainers

    What evidence have you got for that? Labour leavers look less intransigent than the Tory ones, being, for example less likely to say that they would pay any price to have Brexit (and I guess but have not checked likely to make it one of their top issues. I thought that methodologically dubious questions about what would you vote if Labour became more remain actually saw very little change in the vote.

  26. Robin

    “I’d be interest in some detail about the ongoing reports of declines in Labour’s membership”

    Lots of detail (at constituency level) on the decline in SLab membership via my post on the last thread.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10045#comment-1210709

  27. Is there a Blairite/Centrist connection between the CEO of Opinium who wrote a linked article in the Observer and Chukka? If so I think we should be told.

    My guess is that you already know that Chuka Umunna is the chairman of a new centrist think tank called Progressive Centre UK…. and James Endersby is CEO of Opinium and an advisory board member of Progressive Centre UK.

    I don’t find it too surprising that people who work for political pollsters have political interests.

    However, to stretch that to implying they actually bend results certain ways just doesn’t seem very probable to me. Pollsters do lots of other work, in market research for instance, and if they were tainted, who would buy their services?

    Every time You Gov posts results, Twitter is full of the usual conspiracy stuff that it can’t trusted, as it’s owned by Conservatives etc.

    It seems mostly that people don’t trust results that make their side look worse.

    Confirmation bias?

    The alternative is that there really is deep conspiracy to undermine Corbyn’s Labour, and the tentacles of the centrists like Chukka spread far and wide, even into the heart pollsters who are trying to create anti-Labour poll results.

    I know which I believe….(ps it’s not the conspiracy theory)

  28. Charles

    People do change their minds, both in quantitative sense (moving within an option to a direction) and qualitative sense (changing the option), but the first is fuzzy, the second is hard, and often embarrassing. There is also the social pressure that makes one vote against their own conviction (there is a fascinating study from the early 1990s about attitudes of Japanese, US and German workers to their employees and bosses. The attitudes are surprisingly similar, but the expressions are very diferent). And there is also the ability of the humans to act against their own values and interests (c.f. the smokers who know that smoking is bad to them).

    There is a fascinating variety of the attitudes to the no-deal brexit. I visited some of these social media groups and websites out of interest of these attitudes, beliefs and behavious.

    The article is from DW, so apparently extra care is required.

    https://www.dw.com/en/worried-about-brexit-brits-stockpile-food-supplies/a-47321264

  29. OLDNAT

    “I fully understand that those who swallow such propaganda wholesale, fully believe it as they have internalised the message.”

    If that is meant for me then it shows clearly how wrong you are. All I was doing in my original post was to point out that you were factually incorrect in a couple of your criticisms of Daniel Kawczynski as I pointed out very specifically.

    I understand that you find it difficult to accept that you were wrong, so having pointed it out, I am quite happy to leave at that and let others judge.

  30. Re the decline of Labour membership, it may not be exclusively the loss of one end or the other. Both the old guard and the young newbies could have found reason to depart in recent events.

  31. @CMJ

    “I know the whole Referendum debacle, start to finish is a Conservative issue. I know a second referendum is hard to bring about. However, what upsets me about Labour on this they haven’t really tried – and that is the crux of it for me.”

    I was out on the knock in a street of London terraced houses and maisonettes this afternoon. Liberal middle class mixed with private and housing assoc renters.
    Most unusually no less than 3 people (I probably spoke to 15-20) said they were Labour voters who were fed up with lack of leadership on Brexit. I suspect all were remainers but the complaint in each case was about fence-sitting for party advantage rather than the national interest. In many years of campaigning I have rarely had such a striking congruence of disgruntlement.
    A fourth person gave it plenty about lack of leadership on anti-Semitism. For that reason she says she will never vote Lab whilst JC is leader (to be fair I think she’s a natural LD who has habitually voted Lab in a Lab/Con marginal)

  32. CHARLES

    “To judge from tOpinium. the economic argument against BREXIT is won. ”

    Charles

    You are wrong Charles, if you read the report it says we will have recovered after 5.9 years. What they didn’t ask is will we be better off in the long term. From memory other polls suggest a majority think we will be. As you know I certainly do if we leave properly. You seem to believe all the Project Fear stuff.

    Your fundamental error of course is thinking that Brexit is about economics. It’s not and never has been in my view, it’s about regaining sovereignty in the widest sense including control of our borders.

  33. CHARLES

    I meant to add that have never been a supporter of UKIP and indeed disagree with many of their policies, other than leaving the EU. You really should not generalise like that. As a Conservative member I would say there is clearly a majority amongst Conservative members to leave the EU, if necessary with No Deal (WTO). Certainly that is true locally and I live in an constituency which narrowly voted to remain.

  34. @Guymonde

    Thank you for your feedback.

    I am starting to think that some of Labour’s support is quite soft. Labour’s big increase in 2017 was helped by lots of people lending their vote tactically, for example Greens and Lib Dems.

    Someone who lends their vote tactically, who then finds out that they didn’t get the Brexit policy they were expecting, will not likely lend their vote again easily.

    As The Who would say – ‘Won’t get fooled again’.

  35. ToH

    My criticisms of Kawczynski were that he indulged in “British exceptionalism, invented grievance, false information and Germanophobia”.

    While you studiously ignore that he unquestionably used false information (from which one can reasonably infer that you accept that he did), none of the other charges are “factually incorrect”.

    I consider that they are amply justified by the wording in that tweet – especially taking into account his other comments.

    Your opinion differs, but even you must recognise that having a different opinion from yourself does not make something “factually incorrect”.

    My comments on “true believers” in a national myth were much more general, indeed they apply to much of humanity who hold largely opposite beliefs from each other and both assert that their belief is true.

    It’s not all about you! :-)

  36. V203 in Opinium asks what folks want on Brexit, adjusted for DK:

    Leave on time, even if “No Deal”: 46%
    Delay: 24%
    Cancel: 31%

    CON VI are 66% Leave on time, even if “No Deal”

    LAB VI plurality for “cancel” at 48%

    V204 asks Leave with “No Deal” v delay and hold a public vote and is near dead heat in the total column but again the partisan split is huge,

    CON VI are 72% for Leave with “No Deal”
    LAB VI are 75% for Delay and hold a public vote.

    V206, asked about likelihood then 51% and net 34% think “No Deal” is likely (60% if you ignore DK). Only 4% consider “No Deal” as very unlikely (ie it is not going to be a “shock”).
    Very little difference in the X-Breaks on this question, even LDEM see “No Deal” as the most likely outcome and only 5% consider “No Deal” to be very unlikely.

  37. THE OTHER HOWARD

    @Charles

    “Your fundamental error of course is thinking that Brexit is about economics. It’s not and never has been in my view, it’s about regaining sovereignty in the widest sense including control of our borders”
    _____________________

    Absolutely and could not agree more with you.

    Not sure if you have seen the latest map re moaners are bouncing about on social media…It has a map of the UK on the back of a few polls showing leave areas as small scattered areas dotted around the UK.

    Just like the flat Earth believers (flatards) who cling onto the UN map showing a flat Earth as evidence that the Earth is flat, re moaners point to a few polls and a map as evidence to have a second EU referendum.

    I’m just thinking maybe prominent flatards are morphing in with prominent re moaners!!

  38. CMJ

    “Someone who lends their vote tactically”

    Clearly (especially under FPTP) there will be a lot of such people who, philosophically tribally, or on policy issues, cast their vote for the candidate nearest to their own ideas, if their preferred party can’t win.

    There are also a helluva lot of folk who are largely contemptuous of, or disinterested in, political parties who might choose to cast a vote for some party or other because of a prevailing mood in their community – or any media they encounter.

    Perhaps we should consider also talking about “occasional voters” as well as tactical ones. I suspect the former might be a larger component of the electorate than the latter.

    YouGov may be better placed than many pollsters to detect such, since they have made earnest efforts to recruit Dunnos to their panel.

  39. @Charles @ToH

    Your fundamental error of course is thinking that Brexit is about economics. It’s not and never has been in my view, it’s about regaining sovereignty in the widest sense including control of our borders.

    “Brexit – An Uncivil war” covered this.

    Leave’s strategy was two fold.

    Firstly, don’t define Brexit, thus ‘Taking Back Control’ was the tagline. Don’t discuss details of what Brexit means.

    Secondly, the campaign focused on the emotional side, and sense of identity, not economics.

    It did work to win the vote, but in my view has unleashed a politics of identity that is very toxic, yet Pandora’s Box has been opened.

  40. Charles,

    There’s a curious thing about the Opinium tables. People think brexit will be bad for the economy as a whole (16% better, 33% same, 51% worse), but make much less difference for themselves (11% better, 60% same, 30% worse).

    While some people might be insulated from bad effects on the economy, clearly this can’t be true for everyone. (And it’s hard to imagine 11% of the population have shorted sterling!)

    Anecdote alert, I’ve noticed that most people I meet are not taking the threat of economic disruption seriously. They think it will all be sorted out somehow and any temporary glitch will soon get back to normal. What a nasty surprise is in store for them!

    Meanwhile, I’m pondering when to take the critical step in digging up the lawn to make new vegetable plots.

  41. CMJ

    I feel you are right about Labour and – by implication – its potential demise.

    Assuming that Corbyn fails [as I have always felt he will] then I don’t think anybody has the faintest idea of what happens next for the Party – least of all their MPs.

  42. HAL

    “Meanwhile, I’m pondering when to take the critical step in digging up the lawn to make new vegetable plots”
    ______________

    Self reliance with some capitalism….Get it right then I’ll be buying my parsnips from you rather than buying from Waitirose…..

  43. Hal

    “Meanwhile, I’m pondering when to take the critical step in digging up the lawn to make new vegetable plots”

    Depends on what the previous land use was.

    If industrial, heavy metals in the crop might kill you.
    If agricultural, then March/April probably OK.
    If rough grazing over clay (like my front garden – not cultivated even in wartime) START NOW!

  44. OLDNAT

    “I consider that they are amply justified by the wording in that tweet – especially taking into account his other comments.”

    As I said I was being very specific in what I referred to which is why I caught you out. Still you are never going to admit it and I am happy to let it rest. I have made my point.

    As to your last comment, it’s not all about you either.

  45. Allan

    Surely you know that maps without population density are not particularly good illustrations.

    Just because that one rabbit wants to leave the EU in New Forest is represented by a big smudge on the map, it is actually less important than that tiny needle hole in Croydon – yes that house with 15 remainers.

    I know that the article below is biased, but it is not biased in terms of data and representation, but it may help you (although judging from that 2013 psychology article that I linked earlier, no chance that facts would be any use to you).

    https://medium.com/@jakeybob/brexit-maps-d70caab7315e

  46. ToH

    It seems that you live in a very bizarre world where you can “catch me out” by referring to points I didn’t raise.

    Still, as long as it makes you happy …..

  47. @HAL

    “There’s a curious thing about the Opinium tables. People think brexit will be bad for the economy as a whole (16% better, 33% same, 51% worse), but make much less difference for themselves (11% better, 60% same, 30% worse).”

    This can be explained by the fact that at this moment nothing has changed; we are still in the EU, the single market and the customs union. It is very difficult for people to consider things will get worse for them personally when their day to day experience hasn’t actually changed yet.

    Another explanation could be that for some people things are already pretty bad and can’t get very much worse.

  48. Against my better judgement, but let me just say that not all remainers are economics obsessed. I know nothing about economics, I had no idea of the economic consequences at the time of the vote and to be honest, I still have no idea as it depends who you listen to. I had two reasons for voting to stay in the EU, which were, simply phrased, peace in NI and kinship with other European countries. Yes, I freely admit that this is entirely belief based and emotional, and I have no evidence that a remain/leave vote is right for either purpose, but nevertheless, my feeling was that remain was better in both of those cases, which matters far more to me than money. My point is that my decision had nothing to do with economics, and I suspect I’m not the only one.

  49. RAF

    Most likely it is just that people have not been paying attention. However, if the most significant effect of brexit is unemployment then most people are right not to worry. It will be catastrophic for those losing their jobs but not so bad for everyone else.

    If it is inflation with no income increases, then everyone except inflation-linked pensioners should worry.

    The other worry is logistic chaos as ports are blocked with traffic that can’t clear customs. In that case it is the Conservative Party that should be the most worried.

    OLDNAT

    Thanks, it is good soil here and no previous industrial use. Also important, you can’t see the garden from the road!

1 2 3 12

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)