The weekend papers have the first two polls with fieldwork conducted after the New Year – BMG in the Independent and Survation for yesterday’s Mail. Voting intention in the two polls is:

Survation: CON 38%(-1), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 4%(nc)
BMG: CON 36%(-1), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 12%(nc), UKIP 6%(+2)

Survation’s poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday, changes are from their big Channel4 poll at the end of October. BMG was conducted between Tuesday and Friday and changes are from last month. Neither poll shows any real significant movement. As you would probably expect, the bulk of both polls focused on the looming issue of Brexit.

On the Brexit deal itself BMG found that 29% of people think MPs should approve the deal (up 3 points from December), 37% think it should be rejected (down 6 points). Survation found 36% of people wanted MPs to approve the deal (up 5), 40% wanted it rejected (down 6). Both polls show some movement in favour of passing the deal, but still more opposition than support.

BMG asked whether people would support or oppose various alternative Brexit options. By 46% to 28% people would support a second referendum. By 45% to 39% people would support reversing Brexit and just remaining. Further negotiations were supported by 45% to 34%. A “Norway-style deal” was supported by 40% to 36%. Leaving without a deal was opposed by 45% to 35%.

Survation’s poll included questions on how people would vote in various referendum scenarios – in a deal vs no deal referendum, 41% would prefer the deal, 32% no deal. In a referendum between no deal Brexit and remain, people prefer remain by 46% to 41%. A deal vs referendum vote would be neck-and-neck: 40% deal, 40% remain.

Tabs for Survation are here, BMG aren’t up yet.


908 Responses to “Latest BMG and Survation voting intentions”

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  1. Interesting poll, shows how entrenched views now are.

    Personally, still think we end up with Norway, and probably freedom of movement with tightened domestic control.

  2. Colin from previous thread.

    “Bercow is going to deprive them of that it seems.
    Beginning to experience some fear about it all now.”

    My feeling is that this is a fake story originating from supporters of May’s deal to scare ERG into voting for her deal because they, like you, might be scared that that won’t get the No Deal exit they think will happen if they vote e deal down.

    However, it is difficult to see the wood for the trees at the moment,

    It’s going to be an interesting week. God knows what happens after that…

  3. Tonybig

    “God knows what happens after that…”

    Good thinking. Why don’t we ask him?

  4. This is the most intriguing result for me.

    ”A deal vs referendum vote would be neck-and-neck: 40% deal, 40% remain”

    It does say A deal not May’s deal which suggests to me a different kind of deal could still win an affirmation referendum.

    Of course some of the 40% might want a softer Brexit and others a harder one with a small number (but enough to change the result) who want a Hard Brexit preferring Remain to a soft, as they would see it, Vassalage Brexit.

    20% DK of course and 40/40 could be a small lead for either position within moe but there might still be a small majority (of those who vote) for a deal which delivers Brexit but respects the 48%.

    As many have said, if only the PM had reached out beyond her narrow circle and not persistently, right up to checkers, kept appeasing her hard Brexit wing a deal could have been achieved by now imo.

  5. 3 contrasting polls. Assuming that the YG is just at the edge of the range, and Survation a bit the other way, on the current January average of the 3 polls the various swingometers give roughly

    Con 295-305 seats
    Lab 265-270 seats
    LD 20 seats
    SNP 40 seats

    I was hoping for an Opinium or IpsosMori today. I like to have at least 4-5 polling companies in the mix for averages.

  6. John Mann negotiating to vote for the WA live on Ridge..

    Minded to vote for it if government commits to amendments submitted by the group of labour mps on various protections..

    Will the government play ball.Probably just to minimise the defeat.

  7. I am in somewhat of a quandary. If I hide in bed with my head under the duvet, when will it be safe to re-emerge.? How long is all this going to go on for? Is it just for a few weeks or have we got years of constant Brexit to come? God it’s depressing!

  8. @BazinWales

    “I was hoping for an Opinium or IpsosMori today. I like to have at least 4-5 polling companies in the mix for averages.”

    Er, well, precisely. An average of three polls that includes a potential outlier (YouGov with a 6% Tory lead and Labour on 34%) does rather skew matters a little. Didn’t another poster recently give us the December average of all the polls conducted during that month that showed an almost exact tie between Labour and the Tories (very close to the BMG poll)? Accordingly, your seat projections, based on an average of three polls, are a bit of a nonsense. Why have you rushed so soon into this calculation when, as you rightly say, the average needs much more polling data to be even vaguely reliable. And we have a comprehensive December average to go on too. There’s also the point I’ve made before about the preponderance of YouGov polls in any monthly average and how, if they’re getting it wrong due to flawed methodology, the average will be skewed accordingly. YouGov poll much more frequently than other pollsters and will provide a disproportionate amount of data included in any average figure.

  9. CB,

    I cant remember who posted it (and I ain’t trawling back through the last thread) but they put up a YG average which was a decent Tory lead (maybe around 4%) and an average of the rest which showed a small (1-2% IIRC) Labour lead.

    They concluded like most of us on here that unless YG are right and all the rest wrong within moe of a tie is the more accurate under!ying position.

    All to play for in a GE as we might say.

  10. Little movement.

    And no surprise.

    The choice is “Would you prefer something you don’t like or something you don’t understand”?

    People spilt fairly evenly faced with such a choice.

  11. BS, Mann and up to 10/12 others are factored in by Labour number crunchers already even if they don’t see the point of rebelling first time.

    Lisa Nandy who gives genuine credibility within the party to those who might support a deal with some guarantees is the key imo.

    If she did, on a second attempt by May, expect a dozen or more others taking the number over 20 perhaps which would be significant but even then the DUP and their Tory fellow travelers needed.

  12. @JimJam

    Did you watch Corbyn’s interview with Marr this morning? Flexible ambiguity still seems to be the order of the day, but I got the impression that while he’s still keeping just about all options on the table, stretching from an electoral commitment to deliver a soft Brexit to recommending a remain vote in a second referendum (and all points in between!), he does seem to be inching towards the McDonnell position that you outlined recently. Facilitate a GE, win the GE with a promise to renegotiate Brexit in the manifesto and, implicitly, putting the newly renegotiated deal back to the people via a referendum that has remain as the other choice on the ballot paper.

    This is intriguing and might just fly, keeping Labour leave voters on board during a GE but also offering some hope for remain voters. Considering Corbyn has the biggest and most complex Brexit Rubik’s Cube of them all to unscramble (personal lifelong misgivings about EU, a pro-remain PLP, membership and voter base but a significant Leave vote too – get out of that one Jezza), this could plot a route through the maze and allow him and Labour to campaign in a GE on all the other domestic issues where the Tories are vulnerable and have a poor record to defend. It doesn’t entirely box off Brexit, but it could provide him and the party with cover to focus on Tory policy weaknesses and the issues that caused many voters to use the Leave box as their Molotov Cocktail/Up Yours option in the 2016 Referendum.

    This is all going to get very interesting. Of course, the theoretical prognosis that I’ve outlined above does rather assume that there will be a cohesive entity called the Tory Party to fight in a forthcoming GE. We’re starting to get into territory where I’m not sure that’s an assumption any longer.

  13. “While increasing the sample size reduces the margin of error (as someone commented earlier), but it does so in a diminishing manner (hence the notion of “good enough” data). Reading Gosset (aka Student of t-test) is quite enlightening about this, if you are interested in barley for making beer).”

    ————

    Also worth bearing in mind, that reducing the margin of error a bit doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t get bigger “outliers”. It means they’re less likely. But they can still happen.

  14. CB- I did not see but it is all connected.

    The reason Mann and Fitzpatrick and sounding more inclined to vote with May (and Nandy has not rules out at some point) is that the Labour deal v Remain affirmation ref manifesto commitment in the unlikely event of a GE is clear now.

    Would he go further and doa Wislon and allow cabinet members to campaign for either side?

  15. Corbyn rules out second referendum on Sky News.

  16. CROSSBAT111

    “Didn’t another poster recently give us the December average of all the polls conducted during that month that showed an almost exact tie between Labour and the Tories (very close to the BMG poll)? Accordingly, your seat projections, based on an average of three polls, are a bit of a nonsense. ”

    Not really. My December average gave Con 37.9, Lab 38.5 LD 8.9 and the January average so far with these 3 polls is Con 38, Lab 37 LD 10.7 – Lab a bit down LD up a bit so there is not a great deal of difference. The point of averaging is to reduce the effect of outliers (and we have one showing an unexpectedly large Con lead and one showing a less-marked but still unexpected Lab lead partially cancelling each other out). I will be happier that the average is more meaningful when we get more polls but I have given a range of seats rather than try for spurious accuracy. The figure I am pretty sure will change is the LD as I would not expect a 2% rise for them in such a short time.

  17. CROSSBAT11

    I have mentioned before that I take an average of each polling company in each month before I average the overall figures so that the frequent YGs don’t swamp the others.

  18. ADW
    Corbyn rules out second referendum on Sky News.

    Didn’t see it but I would be very surprised if he did

  19. @ADW

    And very wise of Corbyn too. A second referendum is the worst of all options, and would poison UK politics irretrievably in my opinion.

    MPs need to resolve this now, if not, call a General Election.

    May is almost certainly finished. We’ll meaning, but a complete lack of leadership and consensus building skills, its as if a part of her personality is missing.

  20. Some here might be interested in the political developments in Sweden over the weekend as it is quite underreported.

    As you probably know the CoR block was unable to form a government. Now first the Centrum Party (originally a smallholders’ party) came out with the support of Löfven becoming the PM again (and hence the SocDem-Green coalition remains in power) on Friday, and on Saturday the Liberal Party joined in (although the party congress would have to confirm it today). The basis of the agreement is a list of 73 policies agreed by the four parties. The policies are to be introduced gradually, such as abolishing the extra 5% income tax on the highest earnings, allowing profit in social care, introduction of language test for migrants, allowing the family unification for asylum seekers (it was abolished by the SocDem-Green coalition, some liberalisation of the Labour market and public services (such as social housing), stopping weapon export to any country from.where participants of the Yemen war could obtain it, introduction of the 10 years of elementary school, stopping the establishment of faith schools, and close control on the existing ones, etc.

    It is effectively the end of the RoC block as the Moderate Party and the Christiandemocrats attempted to overtake the liberal leadership in the block and they failed. Now the two liberal parties offered a C&S to the SocDem-Green coalition.

    Basically, the SocDem Party is not big enough any more to form a government alone (although it is become stronger in recent years), and the Sweden Democrats are too big for either the CoR or CoL to form a government alone.

    Now, in the Swedish parliamentary system the only thing that requires an absolute majority is the confirmation of the PM. Everything else (including the state budget) requires only a relative majority (the proposal that gets the most vote), so the C&S is easier.

    There are some difficulties. The LO (the equivalent of TUC) head gave an interview (full of four letter words) criticising the liberalisation of the labour market and the change in income taxation. Also for the confirmation of the PM the votes of the Left Party (eurocommunist) are needed, while they said earlier that they would not support Löfven. I don’t see what else they could do (after then the coalition doesn’t need their votes).

    Th he basis of the agreement of the four parties is keeping out the Sweden Democrats and the Left Party from influencing the government.

  21. @NeilJ

    “ADW
    Corbyn rules out second referendum on Sky News.

    Didn’t see it but I would be very surprised if he did”

    Well, he certainly didn’t in his interview with Marr a couple of hours ago. Is this just an interpretation from Sky News or is this another interview he has given on their channe?. In the seeming absence of the latter today, I can only assume the former.

  22. @CROSSBAT11

    Have been watching sky news since ADW said this, no mention of it, surprising as they have talked a lot about Brexit in the last 30 minutes. Thought such a bombshell would be mentioned

  23. NeilJ

    “Have been watching sky news since ADW said this, no mention of it, surprising as they have talked a lot about Brexit in the last 30 minutes. Thought such a bombshell would be mentioned.”

    No mention of this “scoop” on their website either.

  24. Marr exposed Barclay & Corbyn brilliantly.

    Barclay gambling all on frightening ERG with No Brexit.

    Corbyn promising a Brexit which Barnier & the Treaties explicitly rule out. A GE is ALL he is interested in.

    The pair of them playing Russian Roulette .

  25. Corbyn promising a Brexit which is not possible (Colin’s view) is not that significant if Lab Government deal v Remain ref is in the manifesto.

    Such an approach is not without risks, not least having many PPCs including 20-40 current MPs, specifying locally they won’t endorse; it is, though. probably the least bad option and the Tories manifesto will be similarly problematic.

  26. @ CB

    I think the problem for Corbyn is that supporting a Tory remain or May deal means that nothing changes and the Labour leave voters feel let down because their political earthquake leads to nothing. A Labour remain with a strong, believable manifesto that addresses the Labour leave issues might have a chance.

    There’s an interesting article from my own MP, Lisa Nandy, who Jim Jam mentioned as wavering on the May deal (not sure that is true). The proposal of a citizens assembly I don’t think is a starter (It would be Neil Warnock on steroids or a Middle class talking shop) but the rest of the article is an interesting take on working class public opinion.

    https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2018/12/17/let-the-people-take-back-control-of-brexit/

    Key quotes:

    “a feeling that they are now about to lose what little control and agency they wrestled back two and a half years ago.”

    “In Wigan, people constantly tell me that they will never vote again if the result is overturned”

    You need to read the whole article for context and it is a very good article that @ Danny and others would do well to take on board remembering that Nandy comes from a remain belief and still does but wants not just to represent her constituents views in a yes/no situation but explore the compromises that gets them improved opportunities.

    I have little doubt now that remain would win a 2nd referendum. Polling tells us so and is backed up by my own personal conversations among my middle/lower middle class acquaintances who voted leave last time. It’s not so much they have drastically changed their minds but “didn’t realise it would be so hard” is a typical response and doubt and fatigue has crept in.

    The issue really for Labour is that under a Tory BINO/remain those Labour leavers are going to feel very let down if Labour has played any part in it. Their lives won’t change. This might be different if a Labour remain is backed up with a whole package of measures that change opportunities for those Labour leave voters.

    This is where I feel the remain camp has fallen down and hasn’t gone beyond what a disaster Brexit will be onto why people voted the way they did and how to change that.

  27. Thanks AW for another thread, and providing a wonderful service!

  28. JIM JAM

    @”if Lab Government deal v Remain ref is in the manifesto.”

    When Marr suggested to Corbyn that Labour , in a GE campaign, will be “enabling Brexit” , Corbyn said Marr couldn’t suggest that yet because Labour policy will be decided by a “Clause V” meeting.

    So “If” is certainly the operative word here !

    His explanation of his approach on Free Movement was simply laughable-meaningless.

    But we all understand where he is at-He just has to keep saying “May’s Deal is Bad. Labour’s Deal will be Good-I want a GE to achieve it”.

    IMO he doesn’t really understand what he is saying on Brexit at all-its all meaningless waffle.
    He gets really animated & believable when he tells Marr what his domestic policy agenda is all about. The only EU related comments from him this morning , which carried any conviction for me were when he told Marr that there are “left behind” areas all over Europe -just like those in UK-and it all has to change under a “Socialist” EU.

    Sorry Jim Jam, I respect your comments here and enjoy reading them , but intellectualising Corbyn’s Brexit “Policy” is like trying to polish the proverbial ***d.

    I don’t say Labour is the only group guilty of dissimulation on this issue-not by a long chalk. But they aren’t absolved of it by anything Corbyn says either.

  29. Shevii – to be clear Nandy will not vote with May on Tuesday.

  30. CB11

    @” Is this just an interpretation from Sky News or is this another interview he has given on their channel?”

    The former I think :-

    “Mr Corbyn also suggested he would extend Article 50 if a general election was called and he won the keys to Downing Street.
    “Clearly there’s only a few weeks between that and the leave date, there would have to be time for those negotiations,” he said.

    And he hinted at his opposition to another referendum, saying: “My own view is that I’d rather get a negotiated deal now, if we can, to stop the danger of a no-deal exit.”

    Sky News website-commenting on the Marr interview.

  31. As thought, in no way could the Marr interview be interpreted that he ruled out a second referendum.

  32. I seem to remember that some EU big wig recently stated that an extension of A50 by UK could not go beyond 26 May-ie the start of the newly elected EP.

    Salvini has been in a huddle with the pariah Visegrad Members ahead of what they all believe will be a wave of populist anti-immigration influence in the new Parliament.

    Netherlands is heading the so-called Hanseatic League2 grouping with Nordic & Baltic members to reassert National Fiscal Sovereignty .

    The diminished leadership in Germany & France huddle together in their “Elysee 2 ” Treaty in what is left of the Ever Closer Union movement.

    Some might say that IF UK is going to REmain in the EU-there will hardly be a better time to influence change in it than after May 26.
    I doubt that EU would be one which JC would be comfortable in though.

  33. I am puzzled why pollsters and indeed Referendum cannot ask the ranking question 1. No Deal Leave 2. Deal and 3. Remain with none getting 50.01% then second choice votes of last placed votes being redistributed to the leading two – which is surely no more difficult a question to answer than electing the London Mayor?

  34. shevii

    Thanks for the link to the Lisa Nandy article – she’s thoughtful and worth reading.

    I don’t share your reservations about a Citizens Assembly though. It worked well in Ireland, and I think our democracy needs expanding out of the Westminster /Town Hall bubbles.

  35. Thanks to those who helped explain the crazy American government shutdown following my query last night. How bizarre that they once had a normal system where everything just carries on if the Finance Bill fails, but decided to change it!

  36. @JIMJAM

    Yes, I think you are right, as usual(!). Corbyn is sticking to the roadmap agreed at conference, and will try to get a GE before committing to anything else.

    Mind you, a GE is unlikely, and, assuming May can’t get any deal through, it’s difficult to see how a second ref can be avoided. If there is a second referendum (between May’s deal and Remain) LAB could always allow their MPs to campaign for whatever side they choose.

    One advantage that LAB have is that they prefer a softer Brexit than CON, e.g. May’s deal plus Customs Union, which probably would pass in the HoC.

  37. @ JOHN MURPHY

    I think the reason you can’t have three options on the ballot paper, even with a transferable vote or whatever, is that the middle option will always (9 times out of 10) win.

  38. @ HIRETON – (last thread)

    You should re-read your own posts, your memory seems to be as bad as ALEC :-) ;-)

    You said:
    “WTO terms are simply agreeing to play by some general rules ( eg most favoured nation rules) in setting trade policy…Hence the need to add +’s ( in and out of brackets).
    January 12th, 2019 at 10:21 am”

    So WTO+(++) then (as.. err, I said!). Few countries trade on the minimum WTO “general rules” and have a bunch of bilateral, multilateral “mini deals” (them be the +s!).

    I should have added we need to post our own tariff schedules, etc. but UK is a member of WTO in our own right and if we leave with no WA then we set our own schedules (default of copy+paste CET levels but I’d expect we drop those on products we don’t/can’t produce once outside of EU’s protectionist wall). RoO is also easier.

    No WA = No Backstop

    and since Backstop = Problem

    hence the flippant soundbite of:

    No Deal = No Problem

    I can’t do anything about the misuse of the term “Deal” to describe the WA+ 26 pages of waffle, nor the simplistic use of “+” to cover something beyond the minimum, however…

    The easiest trade deal in the World is to leave with no WA and revert to WTO “general rules” for trade with EU

    Fox was right all along!!

    NB I’m not saying we’ll save all the 39bn but the bill will be lower even after paying lawyers to fight it! I’d also be very happy to pay for implementation period to get to WTO on 1Jan’21 (half-ish of the 39bn)

    Hopefully we can build up from that and maybe pay the full 39bn but WTO+(++) is better than signing the legally binding WA (avec le backstop “trap”) and the non-legally binding 26pages of waffle (IMHO of course, but it is the default) or for a soundbite:

    No Deal is better than a Bad Deal

  39. TOBYEBERT
    I think the reason you can’t have three options on the ballot paper, even with a transferable vote or whatever, is that the middle option will always (9 times out of 10) win.

    I suspect in this case the middle option would be knocked out first

  40. @ TONYBTG – May’s main issue is telling ERG/DUP that if they don’t back her deal they might not get Brexit and at the same time telling Remain/Norway+ faction that if they don’t back her deal they’ll get “No Deal”.

    Remain know we can unilaterally revoke (bit downplay the issue of needing someone to do so – although Bercow might help them?) – for sure Arch-Remain MPs won’t blink.

    Hardcore ERG + DUP have cut of their eyelids – they ain’t blinking. They would rather bring down May’s HMG than let her sign the WA+PD. At a push many of them would also rather Revoke and try again after a GE (if it comes to that and even it means CON split as a party).

    Hence May’s crazy “panic” of asking Trade Unions if they can persuade LAB MPs to opt for 4 more years or a Tory govt – errr, NO!! Even if they did, she’d split the CON party!! Bonkers!!

    PS Folks also forget the EC-EU27 side. They have a fantastic WA+PD (for them) and won’t want to reopen/change it.

  41. @Shevii
    Yes, thanks for that Lisa Nandy link. I think it has shifted me from hard remain to a position near hers. I have been increasingly agitated in recent weeks about some of my normally mild and rational (and elderly) friends becoming more and more stridently leave, even retweeting Re:Smog and The Abominable Johnson.
    Like PatrickBrian I like the People’s Assembly idea also.

  42. ADW
    Corbyn rules out second referendum on Sky News.

    As others have said, not in the Sky News interview I watched.

    Sky have now an article up: Jeremy Corbyn sets sights on Downing Street ahead of Brexit vote, which hints that you may have a point with:

    Mr Corbyn also suggested he would extend Article 50 if a general election was called and he won the keys to Downing Street.

    “Clearly there’s only a few weeks between that and the leave date, there would have to be time for those negotiations,” he said.

    And he hinted at his opposition to another referendum, saying: “My own view is that I’d rather get a negotiated deal now, if we can, to stop the danger of a no-deal exit.”

    What’s not clear is whether this is a quote from the Marr show or stated to Sky News.

    JIM JAM
    Corbyn promising a Brexit which is not possible (Colin’s view) is not that significant if Lab Government deal v Remain ref is in the manifesto.

    Agreed, especially as A50 would need to be revoked for at least a full EP cycle rather than extended for the new negotiations to have any realistic chance of success.

  43. @NEILJ

    I would have thought that most of the no-dealers and most of the remainers would have deal as their second option, which would therefore win on the transferable vote system.

  44. @TOBYEBERT
    I would have thought that most of the no-dealers and most of the remainers would have deal as their second option, which would therefore win on the transferable vote system.

    Not if you used the system advocated by John Murphy,

    ‘1. No Deal Leave 2. Deal and 3. Remain with none getting 50.01% then second choice votes of last placed votes being redistributed to the leading two’

    I would guess that May’s deal would in effect be knocked out and the votes distributed to the no deal leave and remain option

  45. tobyebert

    “I would have thought that most of the no-dealers and most of the remainers would have deal as their second option, which would therefore win on the transferable vote system.”

    Perhaps. But if May’s Deal got the lowest number of 1st preference votes, it would be deleted, and the 2nd preferences of those voting for No Deal or Remain couldn’t be transferred to it.

    Unless, the proposal was for votes to be counted according to that complex system – whose name I have forgotten – but has its own problems.

  46. @ john Murphy

    Posters have asked such a three way question a few times.

  47. @trevor warne

    Your post is another splendid example of your inablity to read, comprehend and comment accordingly. Others may want to waste time with you but I won’t.

  48. COLIN.
    Hello to you from the seat of Tobias Ellwood.
    We have discussed much over the last five years.
    I think Corbyn is doing the job of a leader of the opposition; the re-founder of the Tory Party after the split in 1846 (triggered by Ireland’s woes!), Disraeli said that the duty of HMG is to oppose.,
    Nice pic of the smiling Cameron (2015 GE) yesterday in my paper, with Crosby,

  49. Further to my post of 10:53am today.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-brexiteers-back-mays-deal_uk_5c3b7868e4b0e0baf53e694d

    Looks like the Bercow conspiracy news story is starting to have some effect – whether the story is true or false.

    Don’t you just love our politics at the moment, Plumbing new depths day by day.

  50. “I think the reason you can’t have three options on the ballot paper, even with a transferable vote or whatever, is that the middle option will always (9 times out of 10) win.”

    ——–

    Are they really THAT swayable by question order? Not just the people on the fence? Bit worrying if so…

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