A brief update on the state of the polls as we head towards Christmas. First let look at voting intention. The six voting intention polls we’ve seen published so far in December have all shown the two main parties essentially neck and neck – two have shown tiny Labour leads, two have shown tiny Conservative leads, two have had them equal (the YouGov poll for the People’s Vote campaign in the Sunday papers today may have had a slighter larger lead, but it shouldn’t upset the average).

Opinium (14th Dec) – CON 38%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 6%
YouGov (7th Dec) – CON 38%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 3%
Kantar (6th Dec) – CON 38%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 5%
Ipsos MORI (5th Dec) – CON 38%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 4%
YouGov (4th Dec) – CON 40%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 4%
ComRes (2nd Dec) – CON 37%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 6%

Despite the incredibly turbulent situation in British politics, there has been relatively little change in voting intention since the general election. Through late 2017 there was a very small Labour lead, for most of 2018 there was a very small Conservative lead (with a few periods of Labour ahead – most significantly the weeks following the Johnson/Davis resignations). At no point has either party really pulled away. Politics may have been chaos, but voting intention have been steady.

This itself is remarkable given the state of the government at present. If you look at any other measure, they are in a dire situation. The government’s net satisfaction rating in the MORI poll last week was minus 45 (24% satisfied, 69% dissatisfaction). That is comparable to the sort of figures that the Brown government was getting in 2008 or the Thatcher government in 1990… both periods when the opposition had a clear lead in voting intention. Any question asking about the government’s main policy – the delivery of Brexit – shows that a solid majority of people think they are doing badly at implementing it. Today’s poll from Opinium found people thought the party was divided by 69% to 18% (and quite what those 18% of people were thinking I do not know!). And yet, the Conservatives remain pretty much neck-and-neck in the polls.

I can think of three potential explanations (and they are by no means exclusive to one another). The first is that people have simply switched off. The ongoing chaos isn’t impacting people’s voting intention because they are not paying attention. The second is that voting intentions may still be being largely driven by Brexit and, regardless of how well the Conservatives are delivering Brexit, they are the main party that claims it is committed to doing so, and while support for Brexit has fallen, the split in the country is still normally around 47%-53%.

The third potential reason is that Labour are not a particularly attractive option to many voters either – one of the few clear changes in the polls this year is a sharp drop in Jeremy Corbyn’s approval ratings. At the end of last year his approval rating from MORI was minus 7, in the MORI poll last week it was minus 32. On YouGov’s Best Prime Minister question he continues to trail well behind Theresa May (and often both of them trail behind “Not sure”).

While it is interesting to ponder why the voting intention figures remain stable, it’s not necessary particularly meaningful. In the next four months Brexit will either go ahead with a deal that many will dislike, go ahead without any deal with whatever short or long term consequences that may bring, or be delayed or cancelled. Any of these has the potential to have massive impact on support for the parties.

On Brexit itself, public opinion on what should come next is not necessarily much clearer than opinion in Westminster. Throughout 2018 opinion has continued to drift slowly against Brexit – asked if we should remain or leave polls tend to find a modest lead for Remain – typically showing a swing of around 5 points since the referendum (They are helpfully collated by John Curtice here – his average of the last six polls to ask how people would vote now currently shows a Remain lead of 53% to 47%).

While the majority of people don’t support Brexit any longer, that does not necessarily translate into clear
support for stopping it, or indeed for most other courses of action. Poll after poll asks what the government should do next, and there is little clear support for anything. Theresa May’s proposed deal certainly does not have majority support (YouGov’s Sunday Times poll last week found 22% supported it, 51% opposed. MORI’s poll found 62% thought it was a bad thing, 25% good). When Opinium asked what should happen if the deal was defeated, 19% wanted to re-open negotiations, 20% said leave with no deal, 10% said have an election, 30% have a referendum, 11% cancel Brexit altogether. When MORI asked a similar question with slightly different options 16% said renegotiate, 25% said no deal, 10% an election and 30% a referendum.

When polls ask directly about a referendum they tend to find support (although, to be fair, most polls asking about referendums normally find support for then – it is essentially a question asking whether the respondent would like a say, or whether politicians should decide for them). However, a new referendum is obviously a means to an end, rather than an end in itself.

And therein lies the problem – there is scant support for most plausible leave outcomes, but reversing Brexit in some way risks a significant minority of voters (and a majority of the government’s supporters) reacting extremely negatively indeed. In the YouGov Sunday Times poll last week they asked what people’s emotional response would be to the most plausible outcomes (current deal, no deal, soft Brexit, referendum and no Brexit). Would people feel delighted, pleased, relived, disappointed, angry, betrayed, or wouldn’t mind either way?

If Britain ended up leaving without a deal 23% would react positively, 53% negatively.
If Britain ended up leaving with the proposed deal, 20% would react positively, 51% negatively.
If Britain ended up with a softer Brexit, staying in the customs union and single market, 27% would react positively, 35% negatively.

Finally, if there was a referendum and Britain voted to stay, 42% would react positively, 39% would react negatively. This is the outcome that would have a positive reaction from the largest proportion of people, but it would also be by far the most divisive. When asked about their reaction to the deal or a soft Brexit, most people gave people towards the middle of the scale – they’d be disappointed, or relieved, or wouldn’t mind. Asked about reversing the decision to Leave, answers tended to the extremes – 26% would be delighted, but 23% would feel betrayed, including 51% of people who voted Brexit back in 2016.


1,582 Responses to “Where public opinion stands”

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  1. Been impossible to post on this site for a while.

  2. Thanks for the new thread, Anthony! Good to get a clear summary.

  3. You could also read those numbers as reversing the decision to leave having the second lowest disapproval, obviously hard Brexit and the deal have even higher disapproval numbers, no?

  4. We should leave without a deal. I had recently come to the conclusion that this was too late and irresponsible. However, having thought, now decided it is now the best option. It doesn’t require any more votes in parliament. We show LD redirect all our work immediately putting in work to ease the switchover. We should unilaterally put in place any sensible measures that we can like citizens rights, and at ports.
    Beef up the Department of Business to provide information to business registering products. And not to waste any time on this agreement with the backstop.

  5. @AW. Many thanks. I know you must be busy, so it’s appreciated.

  6. Parliament might reject every option, and perhaps might even reject a second referendum (that is another issue I know).

    In that situation they should seriously consider restoring the status quo by revoking A50. This is what organisations do when they are split down the middle. There is the precedent of the attempted House of Lords reform which was abandoned for the time being as no option for change could pass.

    Electors could express their opinion at the next general election.

  7. YouGov: has CON lead up to 4

    CON 40 (+2)
    LAB 36 (-1)
    LD 10 (=)
    Changes vs 6th-7th Dec

    Via Mike Smithson on Twitter

    Unbelievable given the last week’s chaos. Labour really need a change of leadership every bit as much as the Tories.

  8. What I find fun in all this is that no one seems bothered about asking the EU. They are the elephant in the room, and they (not us) will determine our future.

    Of course we could totally ignore them, but if you think that is do-able, you should read the recent lecture from Ivan Rogers.

    Now, back to my popcorn.

  9. A referendum may be divisive, but the only way to resolve Brexit, as Westminster will not come to any consensus.

    Given no negotiated Brexit option will be on the table, the choice will be between a no deal Brexit and remain.

    Logically A.50 is withdrawn, legislation is passed to revoke EU withdrawal bill and a referendum bill is passed.

    If the country opts for Brexit, then A.50 is triggered again and there is a 2 year period to get the country ready. If the country chooses remain, then nothing needs to be done, other than try to resolve some of the issues, that caused some to vote Brexit in 2016. The UK has limited control of EU migration, but it can tighten controls on making sure EU citizens are coming to work, have health insurance, means to support themselves. And the UK has full control over non EU migration.

    Then there are the issues of wage stagnation over the last 10 years, causing unrest across Europe. And also in the UK lack of money going into public services, transport costs/issues etc.

    Theresa May might face a very difficult position as PM and Tory leader, but if she supports what MP’s vote for, then with no Tory leadership challenge possible for 12 months, she is reasonably secure. Most Tory MP’s and DUP don’t want to see Jeremy Corbyn as PM, so will not vote against Government in a vote of confidence.

  10. It seems pretty clear that explanation 3 is the correct one. There is a little under 60% for the electorate that will under no circumstances vote for Corbyn. They are paying sufficient attention for the opinion of him to go down – how bad do you have to be to be thought of as a worse PM than May?

    The biggest obstacle to any sort of resolution is May’s pigheadedness. Without some form of action from the government we are headed over a cliff. It seems pretty clear that May’s approach is to try to delay and delay, leaving parliament with no choice. It’s going to require some action by parliament to prevent that from happening.

    I’ve been wondering whether the opposition might be able to force a change in Brexit direction using the arcane Humble Address mechanism that extracted (at least part of) the legal advice on the WA. With sufficient support from a few anti-Brexit Tories, might it enable the opposition to effectively introduce legislation, by asking HM to direct her government to introduce and pass a bill by a specified date (or even direct May to revoke Art50)?

  11. R Huckle

    “If the country opts for Brexit, then A.50 is triggered again”.

    Given the terms of the ECJ judgment, it would be entirely possible that the Council, Commission, and Parliament successfully petitioned the ECJ to determine if such a tabling of a new A50 was permissible under EU law.

  12. Interesting to see a second referendum gets the biggest score in an open question and staying after a vote is the only option with a positive outcome.

    I would expect this movement to grow, especially if no deal remains in play as a possible or likely outcome, and there is no doubt that a major shift has begun towards a second vote.

    The other striking aspect is that if you add referendum and GE you get 40%, and if you chuck in just staying you get over 50%.

    The public does seem to be moving away from Brexit and are now thinking through how this can be done. MPs still to catch up, but it looks increasingly like they will.

    No real surprises in all this.

  13. Nick P

    This site operates under a methodology similar to Brexit.

    If Anthony doesn’t write a new thread before the due time, it shuts down and hurls us all into the outer darkness.

    The difference is, of course, that Anthony can rescue us, even after UKPRexit day.

  14. This from @ElectionMapsUK on Twitter:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 40% (+2)
    LAB: 36% (-1)
    LDM: 10% (=)

    Via @YouGov
    Changes w/ 6-7 Dec.

    I don’t usually comment on polls but that really is quite embarrassing for Labour…

    ^ the last statement theirs, not mine. Ouch.

  15. Before the last thread came to a clattering halt I was about to suggest that as hotels generally have a hard time in January it might be an ideal time to arrange a UKPR Seminar on IRV etc. Carrot Surprise would be on the menu of course.

  16. hmmm

    Might actually prove to be embarrassing for YouGov, actually.

  17. How about this as a solution to the quagmire……….

    Once May’s final deal comes back parliament test votes each scenario, that is:

    WTO
    Canada Plus
    May
    Norway Plus
    BINO (Customs Union)

    The top 2 then make a second referendum but there must be one soft deal and one hard deal, So Canada and Norway would be fine, but Canada and WTO wouldn’t.

    Then it goes to a referendum with three answers possible.

    What future scenario would you favour for UK’s relationship with the EU – choose one only…

    1. Hard Brexit
    2. Soft Brexit
    3. Cancel A50 and remain

    If, 3. exceeds the previous vote i.e. more than 52% we stay, otherwise we go with the most popular Brexit option.

  18. Andrew Myers

    A much simpler solution is to have a referendum on whether England (and Wales if they want) should be an independent state.

    That avoids all of the backstop issue, removes the 2 Remainer polities that might restrict England’s freedom of action, and takes England out of the EU automatically.

  19. No, we need a referendum, and as Parliament won’t accept no deal, we should probably only include the negotiated deal and remain.

    You could include a 3rd option of something that hasn’t been negotiated, but that might be as mad as having the original referendum.

  20. If Anthony doesn’t write a new thread before the due time, it shuts down and hurls us all into the outer darkness.

    The difference is, of course, that Anthony can rescue us, even after UKPRexit day.

    I don’t know if Anthony reads the intellectual outpourings on his site, if he does then I’d like to offer him a big thank you for keeping this site going.

    I had UKPR withdrawals over the weekend.

  21. Machiavelian fans of a 2nd referendum out in force this evening.

    I keep repeating this, one thing that will not solve this issue is a rewind and repeat referendum.

    My take is that TM takes this to the wire, and that a General Election is much more likely than a referendum.

    Labour are really stuck between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea. Declare for a referendum and they drop to 30% in the polls. Declare for Leave and its worse. What is the odds on continued nebulism!!?

  22. Any speculation on the mechanics of “Cancel A50 and remain” (without which any referendum including that would be as underprepared and unclear as Cameron’s one) is better left till Thursday.

    That’s when the Court of Session will answer the 3rd of the petitioners’ questions – “how” can the UK revoke A50.

    It would seem likely that the UK Government will try to appeal (whatever the Court of Session) rules. Since that ruling will have been based on previous UK SC decisions, that seems unlikely to succeed. As previously, a vexatious attempt by the UK Government to ask the UK SC for permission to appeal to them seems unlikely to succeed either.

    However, large amounts of taxpayer (or rather borrowed) cash will be wasted by the UK Government to try to build in some more delay in the legal process.

  23. I don’t think May’s deal or remain is enough. For many people May’s deal looks very like remain with a bit of vassal state thrown in. You might argue that the leavers might swallow it if that’s the only alternative to remain as now. But what about hardcore no-dealers?

    So perhaps we need two leave options: no deal and May’s deal, and two remain: stay as we are or join the Euro & Schengen etc. But it depends on what the EU will offer at this stage.

    Regarding Corbyn not getting more than 40% of the vote – that won’t matter if the Conservative vote is divided between two parties. Doubtful that will happen, though.

  24. The YOUGOV poll is fairly suprising given the turmoil. Would be expecting some LAB shift to LIBDEM at some point if discontent grows against Front bench brexit strategy. Would also expect some of the Tory remain to go LIB Dem but it does not happen.

    Regarding the polls being fairly static given all the turmoil:
    Perhaps majority of the population don’t pay attention to all the brexit shenanigans and it is all a switch off for them. Those that do and addicted to the issue watch all he news programs and debates probably have firm views on the brexit issue and VI in any case.

    Those that do pay a little attention from the slightly disinterested might be more focused on the personalities than the issue. May gets the sympathy for fighting against the Tory factions whilst the likes of JRM stop VI seeping to UKIP.

    Labour lack clarity on their position at the moment which is not helpful to VI. They are playing waiting game being concerned that backing second referendum would backfire. However most of the Labour voters are pro second referendum/ remain or soft brexit

  25. All this does really point up that referenda should only be used where the terms are already clear and defined. Trouble is that to arrive at such a position risks wasting an awful lot of time and energy on what might turn out to be a lost cause.
    Take Indy Ref, there was so much that was debatable that it was no wonder that it was rejected, probably to a large extent by the risk averse. History might repeat itself unless the imponderables are sorted out beforehand.
    Brexit needs the same.

  26. I wonder if the lack of strong 3rd parties contributes to the stability – supporting the Lib Dems or UKIP was a way to show discontent for people who weren’t prepared to go so far as to actually “switch sides”, or who were discontent for reasons that didn’t make joining the other main party make sense.

  27. I am pleased to see that the site hasn`t been abandoned by Anthony, perhaps in response to an outbreak of bad-tempered messages. So thanks, Anthony, for supplying the daily drug I get from 2/3 15-minute visits . And possibly some politicians actually look in here, and may benefit.

    Somewhere in the previous long threads, a message said that there could be a Vote of Confidence in Theresa May rather than in the Conservative government.

    If this is correct, surely that would be the best option for Jeremy Corbyn right now. Removing TM would get certain support from some Tories, hoping that they can elect a leader further to the right.

    But in overall voting intention a further-right Tory party would be less popular than even a Corbyn-led Labour.

    With TM deposed, the acting Tory leader would be bound to ask the EU for an extension to the leaving date.

  28. and another point regarding Tory VI is that UKIP in turmoil with Farage/Nuttall leaving over the Robinson saga is stopping seepage to UKIP at the moment.

  29. If there were to be a second referendum with (say) Remain and some other option on the ballot paper, and Remain won but with a smaller turnout than last time that would not give a clear mandate.

  30. @ WES

    “I don’t usually comment on polls but that really is quite embarrassing for Labour…”

    Slightly odd comment in a thread on a polling site, but in this one comment you’ve probably already beaten many posters who never post about polls and only ever post about B****t.

    Anyway, as far as LAB are concerned here, remember it is only one poll, and it is YouGov who’ve regularly been showing a bias towards CON all year when compared to the others. Even in the list AW gives, the only two polls which show a Con lead are the two YouGov polls. I think we should just assume, as AW says, that neck and neck is about the best we know right now. That’s not to say that LAB
    should be happy with being level.

    While most people have almost certainly switched off about B****t itself, you’d have thought a leadership challenge to May might have got a little more attention, and at least caused people to realise that the Tory MPs are not all entirely on the same page (18% united, incredible!). You have to go back a long way in UK government history to find such an almighty mess as were witnessing right now. Surely at some stage, the Cons might manage to blow their reputation for reliability. Or maybe no-one but us geeks is paying attention to anything.

  31. As a penance for my grammatical abuse above, I shall remind people that they should listen to this wonderful programme:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08kys4c

  32. Good evening all from what had been a lovely sunny winters day in Winchester.

    “The third potential reason is that Labour are not a particularly attractive option to many voters either – one of the few clear changes in the polls this year is a sharp drop in Jeremy Corbyn’s approval ratings. At the end of last year his approval rating from MORI was minus 7, in the MORI poll last week it was minus 32. On YouGov’s Best Prime Minister question he continues to trail well behind Theresa May (and often both of them trail behind “Not sure”)”
    ______________

    Like the Tories, Labour all over the place with regards to Brexit. You can watch 3 different news channels with 3 different Labour MP’s and all 3 would have different opinions on Brexit.

    The fact Labour haven’t pulled away from a fractured and extremely divided Tory party can be blamed on nauseating MP’s such as Chuka Umunna who at every turn stabs his leader in the back.

    Chooka and his like are consumed by EUrism, Blairism gentrification, open borders and metropolitan politics, far detached from traditional core Labour values.

    “Following Labour’s defeat in the 2015 general election and the resignation of leader Ed Miliband, Umunna was identified as one of the potential candidates to take over as leader of the party. He called for Labour to target Conservatives and “aspirational, middle-class voters”, saying that the party needs to be “on the side of those who are doing well”
    ______

    ol Corby should dump this guy.

  33. PETE B
    “If there were to be a second referendum with (say) Remain and some other option on the ballot paper, and Remain won but with a smaller turnout than last time that would not give a clear mandate”
    ______________

    I’ll go further than that. A lot of re moaners have been lamenting and wailing about the fact leave did not win more than 50% of the eligible vote so if we are to have a second referendum (which should never happen anyway) then for remain to have a mandate if they win they would need to win more than 50% of the entire British electorate rather than 50% of the popular vote.

  34. “It seems pretty clear that explanation 3 is the correct one. There is a little under 60% for the electorate that will under no circumstances vote for Corbyn. ”

    I’d be very cautious about pinning things on a single reason, as aw indicates there are several things at play here.

    In general though I’d agree that Corbyn has a ceiling at around 40%, the problem the Tories have is that they have pretty much the same cap, and as studies of 2017 indicated, significant chunks of those are holding their nose a bit.

    “Might actually prove to be embarrassing for YouGov, actually.”

    Why? No one should expect a single poll, particularly taken outside an election period, to reflect an actual election campaign with the weeks of coverage and new manifestos that covers.

    As it is, it would not be surprising to see Labour VI shore up a bit in the event of an election as a combination of greater coverage of Corbyn seems to help plus fptp forcing ‘least worst’ options when voters actually get to the polls.

    “Declare for a referendum and they drop to 30% in the polls. ”

    Evidence? I’m not convinced that labours leave vote is really that committed to the point that they’d vote Tory. The ones that were I think moved in 2017.

  35. Allan Christie

    “far detached from traditional core Labour values”

    I’d gently suggest that this description would also apply to you, so perhaps you aren’t best placed to judge?

  36. From the poll summary it is not clear whether there is little overall movement or compensating movements/churn.

    I guess uniform swing might be a less useful concept than usual if the next election should happen to fought on Brexit.

    It would be good to know whether voters in the north of England (usually thought to be pro-Brexit outside large Labour cities) are attracted to the Remain sentiments in Scotland. Does opinion change right at the border?

    Within England will Labour strengthen in the south and perhaps lose some marginals to the Conservatives in the West Midlands for example?

  37. DAVWEL
    “I am pleased to see that the site hasn`t been abandoned by Anthony, perhaps in response to an outbreak of bad-tempered messages”
    ____________

    Well you know what…I had a look back at the previous thread and a lot of the ” bad-tempered messages” some directed at myself came from north of the border.

    I’ve never liked and still don’t like the term (cybernats) but by god there are quite a few Keyboard-Gangster-Nats, ie Hireton.

    The fingers must be bashing the hell out of his poor keyboard with all that hyper-sonic blustering

  38. OLDNAT
    Allan Christie

    “far detached from traditional core Labour values”

    I’d gently suggest that this description would also apply to you, so perhaps you aren’t best placed to judge?
    ___________

    I’ve said on several occasions that I hold my own views on politics and don’t attach myself to any one particular party alignment. That way I can have freedom of expression… You should try it some time rather than just churning out party press releases.

  39. Allan Christie

    Wading through 2,342 posts on the previous thread to find examples of people disagreeing with your (often) hyperbolic comments suggests a level of self-obsession that is really quite disturbing.

  40. Allan Christie

    “churning out party press releases.”

    Really? Which party would that be, and which press releases?

    From someone whining about being the victim of “bad tempered messages” that does reinforce the concept that you might be self-obsessed.

  41. @Trigguy

    ” maybe no-one but us geeks is paying attention to anything.”

    There is a lot to that little piece of speculation. This is a part of the latest speech by Sir Ivan Rogers.

    “And even yesterday morning I listened to a Shadow Cabinet Member promising, with a straight face, that, even after a General Election, there would be time for Labour to negotiate a completely different deal – INCLUDING a full trade deal, which would replicate all the advantages of the Single Market and Customs Union. And all before March 30th. I assume they haven’t yet stopped laughing in Brussels.”

    No one really knows what the Labour position is because, like the Conservatives, they themselves don’t know or they are b**sh***g. It makes paying attention and learning anything that bit more difficult.

    Rogers also remarks in his speech that the + plus elements of Norway and Canada are fantasies that will not stand the test of reality. Norway and Canada can be had, minus pluses, in May’s agreement as can other deals.

    Nor is Rogers enthusiastic about a second referendum.

    It is not clear to me that Labour wants to revoke Art 50. If it can be done by a vote in parliament alone I have faint hopes of that.

  42. OLDNAT
    Allan Christie

    Wading through 2,342 posts on the previous thread to find examples of people disagreeing with your (often) hyperbolic comments suggests a level of self-obsession that is really quite disturbing
    ______________

    There you go again…Jumping and blustering to conclusions. I haven’t been near UKPR for nearly 5 days. I read previous correspondence about 5 days on my way home from work but didn’t bother replying to them, that’s what I was referring to.

    Unlike yourself, I don’t have the time to be hanging about UKPR 24/7 and I only post on sporadic occasions

  43. OLDNAT
    Allan Christie

    “churning out party press releases.”

    Really? Which party would that be, and which press releases?

    From someone whining about being the victim of “bad tempered messages” that does reinforce the concept that you might be self-obsessed.
    __________

    You really must have your back to wall…as for me being self-obsessed? Dear oh dear. I think we should leave it there.

  44. Realistically, there can only be one choice in a second referendum.

    ‘Do you wish to leave with the deal on offer – Yes/No’

    If the answer is no, the government extends A50 and negotiates a new one or just leaves with a managed no-deal.

    The option of Remain is nonsense. We’ve already had a referendum with Remain on and it lost.

    I see that campaigning has already started on social media that if there is another vote and Remain is an option, everyone who supports Leave doesn’t vote so that the turn-out is dramatically lower and thus the entire integrity of the second referendum becomes a huge political embarrassment and in turn justifies launching a campaign for a third referendum – which would be impossible to deny.

    Having moved to Yorkshire I can tell you at ground level amongst ordinary people – shop workers, assembly line operatives, lorry drivers etc etc support for Leave with no deal is the most popular option – even amongst ordinary people that voted Remain first time round who now see no end to this unless a line is drawn under it and the only thing that will do that is to leave. People are convinced that the EU and the political establishment are actively working against them and that the current situation has happened because our MPs are third rate and lazy and now they have been given a big job of work to do they have been shown up as cowards. Ordinary people are really really disgusted with politicians and in my 60+ years on this earth I have never seen so many ordinary people so openly and aggresively hostile in their opinions of the political class. It’s far far worse than the expenses scandal or the mid-70s

    Rumour from a very reliable source is the real reason for all the resignations from UKIP is that if a General Election looks likely Farage and co intend to start a new party and field candidates in leave voting areas where the MP is a remainer.

  45. Realistically, there can only be one choice in a second referendum.

    ‘Do you wish to leave with the deal on offer – Yes/No’

    If the answer is no, the government extends A50 and negotiates a new one or just leaves with a managed no-deal.

    The option of Remain is nonsense. We’ve already had a referendum with Remain on and it lost.

    I see that campaigning has already started on social media that if there is another vote and Remain is an option, everyone who supports Leave doesn’t vote so that the turn-out is dramatically lower and thus the entire integrity of the second referendum becomes a huge political embarrassment and in turn justifies launching a campaign for a third referendum – which would be impossible to deny.

    Having moved to Yorkshire I can tell you at ground level amongst ordinary people – shop workers, assembly line operatives, lorry drivers etc etc support for Leave with no deal is the most popular option – even amongst ordinary people that voted Remain first time round who now see no end to this unless a line is drawn under it and the only thing that will do that is to leave. People are convinced that the EU and the political establishment are actively working against them and that the current situation has happened because our MPs are third rate and lazy and now they have been given a big job of work to do they have been shown up as cowards. Ordinary people are really really disgusted with politicians and in my 60+ years on this earth I have never seen so many ordinary people so openly and aggresively hostile in their opinions of the political class. It’s far far worse than the expenses scandal or the mid-70s

    Rumour from a very reliable source is the real reason for all the resignations from UKIP is that if a General Election looks likely Farage and co intend to start a new party and field candidates in leave voting areas where the MP is a remainer.

  46. Davwel

    May has already won a vote of no confidence it’s not for opposition parties to have votes of no confidence in Priministers.
    All the opposition can do is have a ncv in Government of the day.
    The reason why Corbyn’s keeps bottling it is because he doesn’t want to stay in the EU what he wants is a GE. The reason why he hasn’t call for a ncv yet is because he knows he can’t win .
    To win he would have to have the DUP on side and possibly some Tories. I can assure you as a Tory party member of many years any Tory that took part in his party being dismissed from office no matter what the reason would have a very short political career in the Conservative party about as long as it would take them to lose the whip and be deselected.
    As to the DUP Corbyn and McDonnell have long burnt that bridge with there dreaming of a United Ireland comments and there long association with Sinn Fein. The DUP also know that the main thing that keeps them in office is the British Governments commitment to the Union ,something that can’t be guaranteed under a Corbyn Government.

  47. Andy
    “…at ground level amongst ordinary people – shop workers, assembly line operatives, lorry drivers etc etc support for Leave with no deal is the most popular option – even amongst ordinary people that voted Remain first time round who now see no end to this unless a line is drawn under it and the only thing that will do that is to leave. People are convinced that the EU and the political establishment are actively working against them and that the current situation has happened because our MPs are third rate and lazy …”

    That’s very much the feeling here in the West Midlands as well. There are a few remainers but they mostly share the opinion of politicians.

  48. Allan Christie

    So, you are simply storing up resentments from days ago? “Nursing your wrath to keep it warm”.

    No analysis or examples, just bad temper.

    Quite a good example would be your charge about party press releases. No attempt to provide justification, just hitting out randomly, rather like the Kirk in 1650 to whom Cromwell wrote “I beseech you in the bowels of Christ think it possible you may be mistaken.”

    Quite why Cromwell used the term “bowels” in that context, has always seemed unclear to me, since the bowels are simply that part of the body dedicated to producing sh!t.

  49. Andy

    “If the answer is no, the government extends A50 and negotiates a new one”

    How?

  50. @ANdy
    On the off chance I’d say you’re a leaver who knows or seriously fears his fox would be shot by a rerun of the 2016 referendum now people have a slightly better idea of what’s what (and 3 years’ worth of new voters have replaced 3 years’ worth of shufflers off this mortal coil)

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