A brief note about the Survation poll in today’s Mail. A lot of responses to this have really got the wrong end of the stick – the Daily Mail have, quite obviously, written it up with a very pro-deal slant and have not focused upon elements of the poll showing support for no-deal or for a fresh referendum. Nevertheless, the core of the story – that more people said they wanted MPs to vote to support the deal than wanted MPs to reject it – is quite correct.

Firstly, lets us address social media claims that the poll actually showed opposition to the deal and that the Mail has lied about it. This is untrue. What actually happened is that when the Daily Mail front page was published yesterday Survation has not yet put up the full tables, so people looking for the full results on Survation’s website stumbled upon their previous poll for the Daily Mail, which had shown people opposed the deal. Today’s poll is different – and that’s the point of the Mail’s splash – the poll suggests public opinion has changed.

The two polls asked identical questions about support for the deal (so there’s no jiggery-pokery, so changing the wording – it’s a straight comparison).

Survation’s poll conducted on November 15th found that 61% of people had heard about the deal and of those people 27% supported it, 49% opposed it. The full tables for that poll are here (the chart that lots of people were posting on social media this morning was from this poll)

Survation’s new poll conducted on November 27th asked the same questions, and found 72% had now heard about the deal. Of those people 37% supported the deal (up 10), 35% opposed the deal (down 14). The full tables for that poll are here (Wednesday’s Daily Mail story is about this poll)

In the next question Survation asked how people wanted MPs to vote on the deal. 41% said they would like MPs to vote for the deal, 38% would like MPs to vote against the deal.

So far, so good. The poll shows a sharp increase in support for the deal since it was first announced – a fortnight ago the public were opposed by nearly 2-to-1, now it is pretty much neck-and-neck. While this is only a single poll and one shouldn’t read too much into it until there is other polling evidence to back it up, it does appear to be a very clear shift.

However, before one concludes that the public are now leaning in favour of the deal, it’s also worth looking at the other questions in the poll. The poll also repeated questions asking how people would vote in some hypothetical referendums. These suggests that people continue to prefer remaining in the EU to the deal (Remain 46%(+3), Leave with the deal 37%(+3)) and that in a choice between the deal or leaving without one, they’d go for no deal (No deal 41%(+7), deal 35%(+3)).

This leaves us in a bit of a quandary. People narrowly approve of the deal and think MPs should approve it… but they also prefer both of the two obvious alternatives to the deal. For the record, the poll also finds people in favour of a new referendum on the deal by 48% to 34%. It is hard to resist the conclusion that the public are as unclear as the political classes about their preferred way forward.


2,428 Responses to “Does Survation show the public warming towards the Brexit deal?”

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  1. OLDNAT

    @”A tortuous route to a 2nd EUref via May sticking to her word (for once) – by Jolyon Maugham”

    Neat-I like it.

  2. A new Centre Right party, what would they call it.

    In the current vernacular ‘Conservative ++’ or ‘Tory Hard’, ”Ere EU Lot’, ‘Barricade Dover’, ‘The Toffs’, ‘Eton Old Boys’, ‘Bring Back Empire’, ‘Cheap Shoes’, ‘Don’t Pay Anybody Anything’, ‘Gives us a sovereignty Guv’, ‘Bordering on Insanity …….

  3. STEAMDRIVENANDY,

    “A new Centre Right party, what would they call it.”

    Sovereign, Independents, Freedom, People’s Party, New Democrats….

    All would be in some way attractive to Leave supporters.

    Peter.

  4. A nice quote from a Tory minister this morning: “After the apocalypse all that will be left will be ants and Tory MPs complaining about their leader and the EU”.

    Hilarious in a way but meanwhile child poverty is predicted to rise to 40%, by the UN poverty rapporteur, and the food banks will be full this Xmas.

  5. “the confidence vote was ‘entirely a waste of time’ ‘I don’t know if she can heal the divisions. In my more pessimistic moments I wonder whether the Conservative party is heading for a long term split.’”

    ——

    Well it may not be considered a waste of time by those who were less fussed about the Brexit deal but more worried that May might fight the next election.

    And if you are worried there is a risk that a GE might come sooner rather than later, there’s less time to waste in terms of getting May to cede ground on fighting the next election.

    In addition, the hard leavers might wish to know they’ve a chance of installing one of their own for the next election.

    (Interestingly, from that perspective, it might suit hard leavers if Brexit were stalled, and then have a GE with one of their own installed as leader?)

  6. Carfrew,

    What exactly makes you think a faction that can only command a third of the Party’s MP’s in a vote against a PM most think is damaged goods can get it’s chosen candidate into the top two.

    Even if they succeed and Members vote them into No 10, you risk the Corbyn scenario, a Leader, in step with Party members but out of step with the majority of their MP’s and unpopular with floating voters.

    Like much eminating from the ERG, it doesn’t seem very well thought through.

    Peter.

  7. @OldNat

    Everyone seems to be groping towards the idea that a Second Referendum (or a People’s Vote on the deal as I prefer to call it) is not only the best way forward, but the only way forward.

    May’s Withdrawal Agreement will not pass the Commons as it stands. When it falls the Government has to advise the Commons what it plans to do next. The People’s Vote is the sword that cuts the Gordian knot. Clearly, the People’s Vote has to be in two stages and be binding on the government, although the two stages can be on the same ballot paper.

    The first question has to be “Do you accept the Withdrawal Agreement”. If a majority vote for this then the second stage is unecessary.

    The second question is: If the Withdrawal Agreement is rejected, do you want to remain in the EU on our existing terms or leave on WTO terms”.

    There is no room for Norway+ or Canada++ options on the second question because only Remain and WTO Brexit are within the power of the UK electorate to decide on; all other options require other countries to agree.

  8. I think the choice is between May’s deal and Remain. It would be irresponsible to offer a choice to commit self- harm.*

    *as Cameron discovered

  9. From the Guardian live feed:

    “In a page-long commentary, the tabloid Bild says the unofficial motto of British politics right now is: “If that’s reality, I don’t want to have anything to do with it.” It says this applies equally to the Tories as to Labour.”

    I can agree with that!

  10. @ Peter C

    “What exactly makes you think a faction that can only command a third of the Party’s MP’s in a vote against a PM most think is damaged goods can get it’s chosen candidate into the top two.”

    Logically, if any candidate can get to 106 votes (i.e. 1/3rd of the Tories’ 318 MPs) then he or she would be guaranteed to be in the top 2. Sad, but true.

  11. If the Tory Party are running one big scam to get them to Remain, as Danny suggest, who is insisting on the result and who is managing it? It has to involve quite a number of relatively high profile people and in this time of 24/7 news etc I can’t see something not leaking out about such planning. Brexiteers might like to think that ‘they’re all agin us’, but I can’t see a backroom hand guiding this. It’s all down to being a clusterborouch

  12. No need for a new Centre-Right “LEAVE” party one was elected to form HMG, relying on C+S from DUP MPs, back in 2017. Any new CON PM would command the “payroll” vote which added to 117 is most of the current party. Get DUP back on board and get on with it.

    Centre Right “REMAIN” MPs (currently professing to be CON MPs and attempting to go against CON manifesto pledges) should move to LDEM (or if they want to avoid the baggage start afresh or “reverse-takeover” the Greens).

    Simples ;)

  13. Little Nell’s deathbed scene has dragged on for so long now that I wonder if she’s actually one of those creatures that lives in the abyss with enough pressure bearing down on them to crush a JCB, or at least crack the skin on my late grandmother’s custard.

    I was surprised that the vote ended up being that close. It certainly doesn’t strike me as a resounding vote of confidence, but then I am one of those poor souls who remain of the opinion that 52 to 48 is somewhere short of a resounding victory, rather like the team my mate at work supports scraping a fluke win over a first division side’s B team in the first round of the FA cup (or whatever it’s called these days).

    I recall with some pleasure the halcyon days of last year and the spring and early summer when I would explain to Danny over and over again why I believed there would end up being another referendum and he would explain to me why there wouldn’t be and it was all a conspiracy, each knowing that we would never change the other’s mind.

    If anybody’s logging predictions for 2019 mine are that May will continue to insist that there will be no referendum, extension or abandonment of Article 50 until the first and either one or both of the second and third come to pass.

    I also predict that leave will win the second referendum, since remain will again be powered by people like Chuka Umunna who think that calling it a “People’s Vote” sounds cool, rather than like an off-putting and patronising supermarket advertising campaign slogan and will be too timid to galvanise students and others who might vote with their brains rather than their prejudices.

    The polls will remain deadlocked, there will not be a general election, Brexit will remain headline news for long enough to save the Tories from having to address winter crises in the NHS and the ongoing disaster of universal credit.

    Have a lovely Christmas everybody

  14. @TREVOR WARNE
    No need for a new Centre-Right “LEAVE” party one was elected to form HMG, relying on C+S from DUP MPs, back in 2017. Any new CON PM would command the “payroll” vote which added to 117 is most of the current party. Get DUP back on board and get on with it.

    Firstly although the majority of the 117 would be Brexiteers, I think atleast some of them would be remain supporters,
    Secondly many of those who voted to support Theresa May would not vote for a no deal Brexit. It is also very likely that many of those in the current ‘payroll’ would be most anti as no deal Brexit.

    Of course if the new PM promised a referendum I strongly suspect they would get enough Parliamentary support across party lines to do it.

  15. @PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    “What exactly makes you think a faction that can only command a third of the Party’s MP’s in a vote against a PM most think is damaged goods can get it’s chosen candidate into the top two.

    Even if they succeed and Members vote them into No 10, you risk the Corbyn scenario, a Leader, in step with Party members but out of step with the majority of their MP’s and unpopular with floating voters.

    Like much eminating from the ERG, it doesn’t seem very well thought through.
    Peter.”

    ———-

    Lol, it was thought through rather more than your shallow dismissal Pete!

    If it’s a choice between knowing you’re not going to get the deal you want with the current Leadership, and taking a punt, which would you pick?

    I mean, we could have said the same about Indy Ref, a win was unlikely, given polling beforehand, but you still give it a go.

    New Labour MPs couldn’t guarantee getting rid of Corbyn but they gave it a go. So even if it seems unlikely, you have to take into account the fact that this doesn’t always dull the enthuiasm of politicians.

    Secondly, hard leavers have more clout than you might think. They got rid of Cameron remember. And Osborne. Before the ref., not so many were talking along those lines.

    As Theresa found out, and indeed Cameron, things may look rosy before a vote. But once the campaign starts… things can change. In fact Indy narrowed the gap for a while and forced concessions. (Agreed, maybe they didn’t live up to all the concessions but that’s something Indy can use in future campaigns).

    You also have to take into account that while there might be committed hard leavers at one end, and hard remainers on the other, there is likely a middle ground that might accept a compromise candidate that isn’t thoroughly hard leave, but a somewhat closer to hard leave than the current leadership.

    Thus, Hard Leave might not get their IDEAL candidate, but from the potential options, they might get someone they prefer more than currently.

    Into the mix we also have to consider that they need to move sooner rather than later if demographics are eroding the Leave position electorally. By getting May to commit to not standing they can now press for a sooner GE where they are more likely to get a more favourable candidate than later.

    You also have to bear in mind that while Hard leavers are a minority they can still scupper the party electorally because there is no healthy majority. In fact even the DUP can scupper them, and they’ve only got a few MPs. So they have quite some leverage.

  16. As far as I can see May still remains the only adult in a HOC of squabbling children. Personally compared to those who would replace her at least her plan delivers on most of the various reasons why people voted out.
    Her plan stands in stark contrast to the fantasy 6 point plan of Labour and the disastrous no deal plan of hard line Tory brexiteers.
    As she is committed to no further in/out referendum on brexit ,this does not preclude her from holding a referendum on her deal or no deal , it looks highly likely the HOC will ever agree on a resolution to the brexit debate this could be the only way for her to break the deadlock without compromising the original brexit vote.

  17. @LEFTIELIBERAL

    “Clearly, the People’s Vote has to be in two stages and be binding on the government ”

    So far as I am aware the only way to do this is to pass all the necessary legislation before the vote, and make its coming into force contingent upon the outcome. Something like this was done in 1978.

    Even if we had the inclination there really isn’t time. Especially if you need contingencies for three outomes.

    The vote will be formally advisory.

    Of course our politicians could agree that it is to be binding in honour if not in law. I think we’ve been there once though.

  18. colin

    re your post quoting the guy from the Times, that sounds very sensible – indeed obvious and democratic – to me, so I hope that it happens.

    Like it or not there is an obvious way out of the current, crazy state of UK politics.

    Take the “moderate” wing of the Tories and ditto of Labour and you would have a middle-of-the-road Party that would command widespread support.

    That would leave a substantial right wing party and a left wing party, the SNP, LD UKIP[???!] – but add in PR and then see where the dice falls.

    Our current system is utterly bonkers: two tribes trapped in loveless unions and, whichever one wins, then being dominated by an unrepresentative clique of politicians and members.

    Whilst I admire people like Norbold who commit their time and energy to political change, the reality is that well over 90% of people who vote DON’T belong to a political party and have no desire to do so.

    At the moment I don’t think such people have a clue as to what they can do that would make any difference.

  19. colin

    re your post quoting the guy from the Times, that sounds very sensible – indeed obvious and democratic – to me, so I hope that it happens.

    Like it or not there is an obvious way out of the current, crazy state of UK politics.

    Take the “moderate” wing of the Tories and ditto of Labour and you would have a middle-of-the-road Party that would command widespread support.

    That would leave a substantial right wing party and a left wing party, the SNP, LD UKIP[???!] – but add in PR and then see where the dice falls.

    Our current system is utterly bonkers: two tribes trapped in loveless unions and, whichever one wins, then being dominated by an unrepresentative clique of politicians and members.

    Whilst I admire people like Norbold who commit their time and energy to political change, the reality is that well over 90% of people who vote DON’T belong to a political party and have no desire to do so.

    At the moment I don’t think such people have a clue as to what they can do that would make any difference.

  20. @leftie liberal

    “The first question has to be “Do you accept the Withdrawal Agreement”. If a majority vote for this then the second stage is unnecessary.

    The second question is: If the Withdrawal Agreement is rejected, do you want to remain in the EU on our existing terms or leave on WTO terms”.

    It depends on how you ask them. On current polling and on your method May’s deal is thrown out and remain wins the play-off.

    It’s different if you ask

    Given that Brexit means May deal or no deal do you wish to leave or remain?

    If the decision is to leave do you want May deal or no deal.]?

    in that case it is probably 50/50 whether you get remain or May deal.

    Personally I would like your method of doing things but I am not sure it is as fair.

  21. Carfew,

    “Lol, it was thought through rather more than your shallow dismissal Pete!”

    What you outlined as a supposed thought through alternative is little more that a Kamikaze Strategy… It’s unlikely to succeed and a poor use of resource but it’s all we are left with.

    I suppose it suits with a group blinded by their zealous adherence to their dogma, who either unable to see or accept that they can’t win, vent their anger in ever more fanatical attacks.

    They can ideas get someone on the ballot and might even get a Hard Brexit leader, but they couldn’t get that through the house or win an election on it.

    Whatt you think is their strength, I see as demonstrating their weakness, some see Suicide Bombing as a sign of the enemies dedication and it is but militarily it’s while it is a difficult tactic to counter you can’t win a war with it.

    The ERG are so sure they and they alone have the right answer that they can’t see how out of step they are with the political and economic realities around them.

    They may well pursue their goal of having a true believer in No 10, but it’s doomed to failure.

    That it won’t deliver their Free Market Caliphate is not in doubt, all that is in doubt, is how far they will get and how much damage they do before they fail!

    Peter.

  22. This site drives me mad with its constant demands to log in again and again and seems incapable of remembering user names and so on. Hence double post/different names.

    Also no edit or delete option.

  23. turk

    “TURK
    As far as I can see May still remains the only adult in a HOC of squabbling children. ”

    What a typically daft and shallow comment.

  24. “I also predict that leave will win the second referendum, since remain will again be powered by people like Chuka Umunna who think that calling it a “People’s Vote” sounds cool, rather than like an off-putting and patronising supermarket advertising campaign slogan and will be too timid to galvanise students and others who might vote with their brains rather than their prejudices.“

    ———

    It’s interesting that while in some respects Leave might have lost some ground, and long term demographic change might increasingly be a problem, Leavers might also have gained some ground too. Dragging things out has meant that while some may have switched to Remain, in theory, in practice, some Remainers now want it over and done with even if that means leave.

    Also, at the time of the Referendum, trade deals didn’t figure very much in the campaign, but they are more significant now. Nor did issues with a backstop locking u Thirdly, the sky hasn’t fallen in economically thus far, partly because of economic countermeasures, but it shows these remedies are powerful as we saw after the Crunch, and so they can be called into play further if we take a bigger hit on Leaving.

  25. With regard to the “adult” comment above, it seems to me that there are now two probable options.

    Firstly May can present a version of the BS to parliament and squeeze it through in January – in which case we are semi-out in March.

    Or, secondly, she fails and the “adults” in the HoC [of which there are many scores] will force through amendments to – probably – take May’s option and remain back to the voters for a decision.

    As I have written, this can be presented very calmly and rationally by explaining how complicated the whole withdrawal process is, that there is insufficient agreement politically on the best option, and it is therefore right that the public at large should be entrusted with the final decision.

    No deal simply won’t be tolerated and we won’t get there accidentally ether – no matter how many times TOH says we will.

  26. This, from IDS, exemplifies what I detest about so many politicians:

    “If you think you can reach out to the Labour party with the leadership they have got at the moment you must be living in a mad place, because there is no way on earth the public want to see us deal with the Labour party,”

    The conflation of ” our narrow membership” with the “public” [i.e. everybody! is absolutely typical, misplaced arrogance.

  27. Carefree,

    “Some Remainers now want it over and done with even if that means leave.”

    Some people with terminal illnesses want to end it sooner but far more want to live and always will; more wishful thinking from Brexiteers.

    “Also, at the time of the Referendum, trade deals didn’t figure very much in the campaign”

    Rewriting history and wishful thinking combined.

    Trade deals were an issue and did figure on both sides, true they didn’t get the same profile as scaremongering about immigration or demonising the Jackboot Brussels Bureaucrat’s but it was well discussed, so your wrong there!

    As to wishful thinking, the claims about people lining up to do deals and how easy they would be, along with the EU needs a deal more than us because we buy more than we sell have all been largely shown to be baseless.

    As to the argument that we need’nt fear because we got through the financial crisis; with only having to fork out £1trillion in taxpayers money, saw debt rise from 40% of GDP to over 100% and now after a decade of belt tightening it’s still little less than double what it was when we started!

    We’ll good luck selling that one at the next election!

    Peter.

  28. @ NEILJ – “I think at least some of them (117) would be remain supporters”

    :-) :-)

    Once a leadership contest had got to the final 2 the members would pick the most “Extreme” Brexiteer option (Boris if he was one of the two choices). Wollaston is typical of the 10+ “Extreme” Rem4iniacs who would know they have more hope stopping Brexit by propping May up than having Boris or similar take over (Wollaston even went to the trouble of sending out the picture of her ballot slip).

    Many of the 200 backing May probably did so to block Boris! The 10ish Rem4iniacs will vote May’s deal down if/when it ever goes before HoC and that drops the 200 to 190ish. Where is she going to get 130ish extra votes from?…

    IMHO it was still a foolish tactical move but May (and her v.bad deal) can’t hide for ever – the clock is ticking!

    @ CARFREW – “might suit hard leavers if Brexit were stalled, and then have a GE with one of their own installed as leader”

    Clean Leavers who wish to respect the CON manifesto, yes. Seeing CON deliver BrINO or worse totally disrespecting the Ref and reneging on every pledge to leave on time since would destroy CON as a party.

    First up though May has to try and get her v.bad deal through HoC. It’s likely to lose by 200ish votes. After that she has to decide to either resign and hand over to a “Clean Brexit” new leader or split her party (I can’t see a 3rd option)

  29. “What about a Useful Idiotic Russian Bot?”
    @Peter Cairns (SNP) December 13th, 2018 at 10:25 am

    Is that one of these:

    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/12/12/russian_super_robots/
    Here’s 2018 in a nutshell for you… Russian super robot turns out to be man in robot suit

  30. @Peter C

    What you wrote bares scant relation to what I wrote.

    In fact, you didn’t really address my points at all.

    I am not saying that for the ERG to seek to replace May with someone more amenable, is inevitably going to result in a Hard Leave Nirvana.

    I am simply saying that if they don’t find the current deal very amenable they may as well roll the dice.

    How is that a kamikaze strategy? The kamikaze strategy from their point of view is to do nothing.

    And as I pointed out, when the dice get rolled, far from being Kamikazi, it actually provides them some potential benefit. They got rid of Cameron, now they’re getting rid of May.

    From a Hard Leave perspective, Kamikazi might be doing nothing and getting locked in via the backstop, for,example.

    I wasnt talking about a strength, I am just pointing out where they have some leverage. They are in a weak position in terms of MPs, so being able to change the leader is one way they can punch above their weight.

    You haven’t challenged my argument. As I said, it is true that Cameron was pushed aside, and now so is May, it is also true that if there’s a new leader, they have a chance of someone more amenable. This isn’t Kamikaze tactics, it suits them, it’s just that they have a limited position so it’s by no means guaranteed.

    But they might prefer it to the status quo.

    They’re doing better than Indy Ref did, or the anti-Corbyn faction.

    Regarding getting a Hard Brexit leader, again, you’re not dealing with what I said. I was talking about just getting someone a bit more in their direction who would still be amenable to those in the middle.

  31. @PETER CAIRNS
    Whatt you think is their strength, I see as demonstrating their weakness, some see Suicide Bombing as a sign of the enemies dedication and it is but militarily it’s while it is a difficult tactic to counter you can’t win a war with it.

    The point of all of this suicide bombing is to make people understand that they are not going away. The point is that they are not going away and what we have to do it essentially put up with them. the problem was that the EU referendum was a bit like the USA/UK invasion of iraq. ill prepared, misunderstood and based on a bravado of a nation that believed it had the most power military that has ever existed.

    Brexiteers job now is to make the UK ungovernable. However they have been given a leg up by the very people that have recently called them extremists. As TREVOR WARNE said May was one of them. All tories were on the same side. The problem has been relaity taking care of itself. Go back through the comment pages of last year about getting to phase two or further back to Lancaster Hosue speech or May’s citizens of nowhere speech. She and other ‘moderate’ Tories enabled this mess.

    I always thought that Cameron was a tactical rather than strategic PM. I though May’s strategy was clear. her beliefs were clear. She just ran into reality. The suicide bombers will keep on doing what they do as long as there is enough support for it. unfortunately we have created a situation where there is enough support for it.

  32. @TW
    Many of the 200 backing May probably did so to block Boris! The 10ish Rem4iniacs will vote May’s deal down if/when it ever goes before HoC and that drops the 200 to 190ish. Where is she going to get 130ish extra votes from?

    I agree I cannot see her getting her deal through Parliament, but I think it is even more unlikely a no deal or ‘clean’ Brexit, if you prefer, would do either.

    So what now skipper?

    There may be some coming together across parties for a Norway plus customs union deal.
    More likely it will probably take either a General election and or a referendum to break that dead lock.

  33. My memory of history is that Cameron skulked off at his own voilition.

  34. CON “payroll” vote.

    Anyone got an accurate number (ideally with source)?

    I’m told it is 170-175 when you add in PPS, Vice Chairs and the new(ish) Trade Envoys but my source admits its a “guesstimate” (based on info from someone on the lower ranks of the payroll!)

  35. volition

  36. “The point of all of this suicide bombing is to make people understand that they are not going away.”

    Umm…but they’ve just ‘gone away’.

    You can’t do this stuff twice you know!

  37. @TW First up though May has to try and get her v.bad deal through HoC. It’s likely to lose by 200ish votes. After that she has to decide to either resign and hand over to a “Clean Brexit” new leader or split her party (I can’t see a 3rd option)

    Do you really think that a) the con MPs and b) the country would unite behind a clean Brexit/no deal leader?

  38. Lucid Talk December tables have been published

    https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/024943_b89b42d32364461298ba5fe7867d82e1.pdf

    When gauging the strength of public demand for a 2nd EUref, worth noting why some are not in favour –

    It should be noted that notable minorities of Nationalists/Republicans and the ‘Neutral – Alliance/Green party’ voters (i.e. 9% and 16% respectively) are against a 2nd EU referendum as they have the view that NI has already voted to Remain, so that is the result that should be honoured

    While thus far unquantified, a similar stance is taken by some in Scotland.

    Overall, the majority of NI would support a 2nd EU Referendum (or peoples vote – or whatever you want to call it) i.e. 56% say this.
    ? However, when this is analysed via Unionists vs Nationalists/Republicans there is/are a big difference of opinion: Nationalists/Republicans (i.e. includes Sinn Fein voters) are 83% for a 2nd EU referendum, but Unionists (i.e. includes DUP voters) are only 27% for a 2nd EU referendum and 71% against. However, this 27% minority of Unionists who are pro a 2nd EU Referendum are a ‘critical minority’ and perhaps shouldn’t be ‘ignored’ by the DUP

  39. ROSIEANDDAISIE,

    “My memory of history is that Cameron skulked off at his own voilition.”

    Mine too, but in Brexit land all events are seen through the prism of the true faith and the righteousness of the cause.

    Hence Carfrew can’t accept that electorally and politically hard Brexit isn’t achieveable because their are neither the numbers in Parliament or the Country.

    The tactic he is effectively following is the Kamakaze Strategy, this can’t work but we’ll do it anyway because we refuse to accept we can’t win.

    They’d rather pin there forlorn hopes on a wild gamble that compromise and take the best they can get.

    The mood music today from Brussels is that the only thing that will prick up their ears is changes that make Mays deal softer than it is now. The numbers seem to suggest that a softer deal is more likely to get through Parliament.

    The response from the ERG, try to bring the house down by suiciding us into a no deal. In the name of the Holy Cause the pain the innocent suffer will be rewarded in Paradise.

    He thinks they think it’s worth a try to get what they want, for me it’s a pointless uphill Banzi Charge!

    Peter.

  40. May and the ERC seem inclined to run things down to the wire, At that point May has a chance to win as Labour abstains in the hope of avoiding No Deal. The ERC also has a chance to win by default if Parliament refuses to vote for May’s deal. This seems to me an abuse of Parliament and profoundly undemocratic

    At the same time, both May and The ERC claim to be fulfilling the public’s will. And this is despite the fact that in the country at large very few people want May’s deal and around two thirds would prefer remain to no deal, I cannot see that any of this is ‘democratic’.0

  41. It would be nice to see the hard Brexiteer MP’s wobble off and form their own centre right party but I can’t see it happening. They’re not brave enough to forage out alone, without the support of Granny Tory Party.

    There’s another element in that many of them wouldn’t want to forego the opportunities to create mayhem for the leader and so they wouldn’t go, even if a new party was set up.

    As said it would be nice to wave them bye bye and it might even mean I could rejoin the party that I’ve always voted for but I can’t see it happening.

  42. @ NEILJ – “I think it is even more unlikely a no deal or ‘clean’ Brexit, if you prefer, would do either”

    “No Deal” is the default. Worse it is full on crash out, “No Deal” that is the default. That would be v.v.v.v.bad if we “sleepwalk” to 29Mar’19.

    When the clock strikes 11pm on 29Mar’19 that is it, all treaties cease and we’re out – unless you “ENABLE” something else before hand (be that Extend, Revoke, New Ref, current deal, slimmed down deal, totally different deal, whatever – but you have to ENABLE something other than the default)

    * sorry to bang on about this but folks really don’t seem to understand that you can’t “block” the default outcome. 11pm on 29Mar’19 is set in law!

    “There may be some coming together across parties for X, Y, Z”

    Two issues, both of which are fatal to that idea:
    – It is still X, Y, Z (you say Norway+CU, others want new ref, Boris+co want FTA, etc – also what will EC-EU allow?)
    – The LAB/CON ideological divide. Momentum will want to deselect any LAB MP that gives us 4 more years of Tories. May would be lynched if she went cap in hand to Corbyn. (I’m not happy about that, but that is the reality). A few rebels might move either way but probably not enough.

    “So what now skipper?”

    The “power” lies with PM and HMG. She (and they) control the legislature (ie they can kick the can on the Meaningful Vote). So,

    1/ Corbyn needs to call a VoC, wait until after the weekend but stop delaying
    2/ DUP with a few CON abstentions would see May lose that vote, a new CON HMG would form and would need to pass a VoC
    3/ DUP might back May for now but then Corbyn has at least shown he tried and he can try again in the New Year (then back to #2)

    From there, either
    4a/ A GE and just before parliament breaks up MPs should agree to revoke A50 (all opposition parties plus enough CON that put country over party). If LAB win we Remain, if new CON win we retrigger A50. No need for new ref (unless Corbyn wants it in LAB manifesto)
    4b/ New CON HMG win VoC (it will be tight, I’ve shown the maths before) and get on with “Default+” (which dovetails in with below) and strong mitigation domestically (this is the bit May+Hammond are neglecting)

    For now this HMG needs to seriously up the “No Deal” implementation and I fully expect the EC-EU will be doing the same. From there we might salvage some “mini deals” which might, hopefully, include paying the full 39bn for transition to WTO from 1Jan’21 (and before that we might be able to agree something “deeper”)

    Lots of might, hopefully and IMHO in there but the clock isn’t going to stop by itself. It’s upsetting to see so many intelligent people on UKPR still holding out for fantasies and not looking at the realities.

    NB It is not about what I, you or anyone else “wants”. I certainly didn’t want to be where we are but I’ve accepted the reality of the situation. If that means Corbyn govt and Remain so be it.

  43. @Peter C

    “Mine too, but in Brexit land all events are seen through the prism of the true faith and the righteousness of the cause.

    Hence Carfrew can’t accept that electorally and politically hard Brexit isn’t achieveable because their are neither the numbers in Parliament or the Country.

    The tactic he is effectively following is the Kamakaze Strategy, this can’t work but we’ll do it anyway because we refuse to accept we can’t win.

    They’d rather pin there forlorn hopes on a wild gamble that compromise and take the best they can get.“

    ———

    What are you talking about? I am not an advocate of Hard Brexit. I’m not even an advocate of Brexit. I am on the fence on the matter, because there are quite a few pros and cons.

    As for there not being the numbers for Hard Brexit I haven’t challenged that, I am making a different point and simply saying that they might be able to get a more preferred outcome with a different leader, even if not ideally Hard Leave.

    I am just pointing out that for those who don’t think the current deal is good enough, and are perhaps worried about the backstop locking us in etc., to allow Theresa to continue down that road IS the Kamikazi strategy.

    Just as some MPs may have felt letting Theresa continue to fight the next election was also Kamikazi.

    However, I ALSO pointed out that it is not unusual for politicians to pursue lost causes. E.g. Cameron, Corbyn’s New Lab opponents, and possibly Hard Leavers too.

    I am just exploring their thinking, not advocating it.

  44. And sure, Cameron may have gone “of his own volition”, just as Theresa seems to be giving up before the next election. This doesn’t mean others didn’t play a part in forcing that outcome. Including Boris of course, where Cameron is concerned.

    (Cameron didn’t even get the six weeks he wanted for a handover, and Osborne was told he needed to spend more time with his constituents).

  45. Leftie Liberal,

    I agree that a 2-stage referendum is (the least damaging) way to do a 2nd referendum.

  46. @PeterW

    Parliament is sovereign; it can do this. The AV referendum was binding. The only constraint is that it would be well-advised to involve the Electoral Commission on the wording of the question.

    @Charles
    I take the view that Mrs May is what she seems and not a closet Remainer seeking to destroy Brexit. Hence the first question should be to appeal to the electorate over the heads of Parliament on her deal.

    I agree that this order probably favours Remain, but since the electorate were asked in 2016 if they wanted to accept Cameron’s terms or leave the EU, it is only fair that May’s deal should be put to the country first.

  47. But I’d be very tempted to have May’s deal vs. renegotiation as the Brexit options.

  48. @ CHARLES – “Do you really think that a) the con MPs and b) the country would unite behind a clean Brexit/no deal leader?”

    We are deep into “least bad” options. There are no good choices but some (e.g. May limping on and sleepwalking to No Deal) are worse than others – IMHO!

    Anyway, for a/ consider Corbyn taking over LAB.

    Q: How many LAB MPs quit?
    A: 2 (Tristram Hunt, Jamie Reed)

    Q: How many Blairite MPs are still in LAB?
    A: LOTS! (although Momentum might have some of the most vocal ones out by next GE)

    How many CON MPs will quit if say Raab takes over (I’d prefer Javid but I think it would have to be a True Brexiteer)?
    For sure Boris would be much more difficult to stomach.
    Plenty will grumble but will they quit, will they join LDEM? Not many, if any, IMHO.

    For b/ I dunno, Corbyn was written off and he ended up being quite popular. It will certainly need a huge improvement in policies, delivery and “spin” (CON seem to lost the art of “spin”)

    Anyway, it seems “less bad” that the current slow death under May. IMHO ;)

  49. Good afternoon all from a very chilly PSRL.

    I must say she is tenacious. For some time now I’ve been of the opinion that the only way out is via a 2ndref – but this may only happen after she throws in the towel and resigns. That could be next week if she comes back from Brussels with a meaningless sheet of paper; another possibility is that it would trigger Labour tabling no confidence vote. More likely than not she and her government will try and limp on, and on – this is after all about the Tories retaining power.

    If she really was acting in the national interest she would swallow her pride and call for the 2nd ref, rather than allow this to drag on with investment drying up and our country continuing to be seen as a laughing stock internationally.

  50. Jo Maugham has provided the best legal advice on aspects of Brexit, so his reasoning in the article I linked to earlier is worth a look.

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/how-theresa-may-could-still-get-her-brexit-deal-through-parliament

    there is this route for her to get her deal through parliament and keep her promise not to extend Article 50.
    She starts by telling the House of Commons that she’s listened and has done everything possible to deliver the best possible deal but is now forced to accept that she has to compromise in order to get the Withdrawal Agreement past the House.
    She says she is personally determined to honour the result of the 2016 referendum. But to get the WA through parliament she will introduce legislation for a referendum on her deal which will take place before the Withdrawal Agreement enters into force.
    The third sub-paragraph of Article 50 provides that the Treaties cease to apply from the date the Withdrawal Agreement “enters into force.” That date can be agreed by the UK and EU (by qualified majority voting) in the WA. Let us say that the date were set for the Queen’s Birthday, 8th June.
    This would leave ample time for a referendum and—following the decision of the Court of Justice earlier this week—Article 50 “allows that member state—for as long as a withdrawal agreement… has not entered into force—to revoke that notification unilaterally.” Were the referendum to reveal that it was the nation’s will that we leave on the terms of her deal we would leave on 8th June. And if the nation’s preference were revealed to be to stay in the EU, we could revoke Article 50 at any time prior thereto.
    The “exit date” in the Withdrawal Act would need to be changed to 8th June—but this could be done by an instrument made by a minister.
    This would adhere, strictly speaking, to her pledge not to extend Article 50. The right of her party, it is fair to say, would not be pleased. But it might, after last night, be a little less vocal. Corbyn would be wrong-footed. And sufficient SNP, Plaid Cymru, Lib Dem and Labour MPs would come on board to enable her, easily, to get the WA and enabling legislation through parliament.

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