A brief note about the Survation poll in today’s Mail. A lot of responses to this have really got the wrong end of the stick – the Daily Mail have, quite obviously, written it up with a very pro-deal slant and have not focused upon elements of the poll showing support for no-deal or for a fresh referendum. Nevertheless, the core of the story – that more people said they wanted MPs to vote to support the deal than wanted MPs to reject it – is quite correct.

Firstly, lets us address social media claims that the poll actually showed opposition to the deal and that the Mail has lied about it. This is untrue. What actually happened is that when the Daily Mail front page was published yesterday Survation has not yet put up the full tables, so people looking for the full results on Survation’s website stumbled upon their previous poll for the Daily Mail, which had shown people opposed the deal. Today’s poll is different – and that’s the point of the Mail’s splash – the poll suggests public opinion has changed.

The two polls asked identical questions about support for the deal (so there’s no jiggery-pokery, so changing the wording – it’s a straight comparison).

Survation’s poll conducted on November 15th found that 61% of people had heard about the deal and of those people 27% supported it, 49% opposed it. The full tables for that poll are here (the chart that lots of people were posting on social media this morning was from this poll)

Survation’s new poll conducted on November 27th asked the same questions, and found 72% had now heard about the deal. Of those people 37% supported the deal (up 10), 35% opposed the deal (down 14). The full tables for that poll are here (Wednesday’s Daily Mail story is about this poll)

In the next question Survation asked how people wanted MPs to vote on the deal. 41% said they would like MPs to vote for the deal, 38% would like MPs to vote against the deal.

So far, so good. The poll shows a sharp increase in support for the deal since it was first announced – a fortnight ago the public were opposed by nearly 2-to-1, now it is pretty much neck-and-neck. While this is only a single poll and one shouldn’t read too much into it until there is other polling evidence to back it up, it does appear to be a very clear shift.

However, before one concludes that the public are now leaning in favour of the deal, it’s also worth looking at the other questions in the poll. The poll also repeated questions asking how people would vote in some hypothetical referendums. These suggests that people continue to prefer remaining in the EU to the deal (Remain 46%(+3), Leave with the deal 37%(+3)) and that in a choice between the deal or leaving without one, they’d go for no deal (No deal 41%(+7), deal 35%(+3)).

This leaves us in a bit of a quandary. People narrowly approve of the deal and think MPs should approve it… but they also prefer both of the two obvious alternatives to the deal. For the record, the poll also finds people in favour of a new referendum on the deal by 48% to 34%. It is hard to resist the conclusion that the public are as unclear as the political classes about their preferred way forward.


2,428 Responses to “Does Survation show the public warming towards the Brexit deal?”

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  1. @ Trev

    I’ll go for 101 seeing as the number of entries are small and I’ve never been anywhere close to winning a UKPR prediction before. Also a 101 gives me the outside chance of taking TOH’s crown of most ridiculous prediction to come true!

  2. Canterbury going Labour was a pretty ridiculous one Shevii?

  3. 68 /69 no confidence I’d say.

  4. 68 /69 no confidence I’d say.

  5. 95 I think against. May
    And May exit in the summer holidays

  6. May reported as “looking happy” as she returned to Downing Street a few minutes ago.

    Make of that what you will.

    :-)

  7. CB11

    Folk wandering out of a pub are described as “looking happy”.

  8. 87 againstfor me

  9. @OldNat

    “Folk wandering out of a pub are described as “looking happy”.”

    Are you suggesting that May has had a few pints of heavy in the Commons this evening???

    :-)

  10. I will save my prediction for after the result has been declared.

    :-)

  11. I’ll take all the ones, cos it’s easy to remember. :D

    111

  12. Large Pantechnicon just reported to be entering Downing Street.

    :-)

  13. 87

  14. @PeteB

    “87”

    No confidence votes against May tonight or predicted Tory seats at next General Election?

    :-)

  15. I predict 36 votes against.

    Mainly because I suspect a lot of the letters that went in yesterday were fake ones to trigger the vote, win it and put the whole rumour mill of VONC to bed for another 12 months.

  16. tonybtg

    I’ve heard that suggested – it would certainly work to have a confidence vote while she is likely to win it, rather than wait for her deal to hit the iceberg

  17. Nickp

    Exactly.

    But what evidence do we have to suggest that these people are capable of something as clever and coordinated as that.

  18. tonybtg

    She likes a gamble like that – look at the General election. Let’s hope she hasn’t made an equal c0ck up this time, eh?

  19. ONYBTG

    I suspect a lot of the letters that went in yesterday were fake ones to trigger the vote, win it and put the whole rumour mill of VONC to bed for another 12 months.

    But the interesting thing is that we had been told for a good 18 months that Graham Brady had a large number of letters already sitting in his safe and it would only take a few to tip it over the 48. Then the ERG attacked and various other people announced that numerous letters had been sent … and nothing happened.

    Now Brady hinted that even some who said they had sent letters might have not delivered, but even so it probably wouldn’t have taken many more to get to the required number. So just a few backbenchers who got irritated with the May on Monday could have been enough without any Cunning Plan. Her supporters would actually have been better using the ERG attempt if they wanted to get her the year’s immunity.

    But the whole saga of getting to the 48 does rather add to the narrative that Conservative MPs are innately dishonest and the journalists who cover them completely gullible. And possibly vice versa.

  20. She’s won…

  21. 200-117

    More against than expected.

  22. 117 against. She got bare 200 – minimum to be respectable but still over a third against.

  23. Ooh. My 111 wasn’t too far off after all. Nearset wins? :)

  24. Nearest, even.

  25. Not good for May. She can carry on, but that is pretty damning.

  26. So who on UKPR gets elevated to the envied status of best reader of the entrails – and who are exposed as simply the entrails?

  27. Closest I can see is Statgeek on 111, based on the evidence based analysis that 111 was easy to type!

    Shows what we know.

    Tonybtg, seems furthest out on 36!, but his was a conspiracy theory so it doesn’t count.

    I may be wrong, but didn’t more than 200 say they were backing her????

    Peter.

  28. Damn you Statgeek!

  29. I said over 100 so I win (cos nobody said I had to be specific)

  30. 200 for May; 117 against

  31. Statgeek’s claim to victory obviously doesn’t count because he lives beyond the far northern boundaries of England’s realm (and therefore cheated by having a good education).

    So which English person best predicted the result?

  32. I think 117 is too high for May to be comfortable.

  33. NickP,

    “I said over 100 so I win (cos nobody said I had to be specific)’

    My game, my rules, you didn’t specifically win because you weren’t specific…. but you did netter than me!

    Peter.

  34. As a Corbynite remainer that’s almost exactly the result I’d have wanted.

  35. NickP,

    “I think 117 is too high for May to be comfortable.”

    Has she ever looked comfortable!

    Peter.

  36. In normal times any Prime Minister who did not have the confidence of more than a third of her party would be seeking an audience with HMQ. This would be all the more the case where that government is in a minority. But! We do not live in normal times and I expect TM to carry on regardless.

    I am reminded of the last days of the Roman Republic where many honourable conventions fell by the wayside. That took 70 years or so to move from Stable Republic to chaos and a further 30 years to settle into the era of the Emperors (not strong or stable by any means). I fear that our own demise toward a fall may be rather quicker.

  37. ON

    “So which English person best predicted the result?”

    Daisie who predicted 117 against.

    But she can’t type.

    However I am happy to accept the award on her behalf.

    By the way I have to mention how useful I find it when people post breaking news items here as we get no tv coverage at all in Barnard Castle.

    More interestingly it is intriguing as to what happens re the so called brexit “deal”. DUP etc won’t accept is so the same position of the government not putting it to a vote remains.

    So WTF next? [asks Rosie, who is half Scottish.[

  38. Daisie as just done the math [she watches too much American telly] and makes it 37% of the Tory mps voted against TM.

  39. Probably about the worst result imaginable for the Conservative Party. Neither a convincing support nor opposition. 200 is probably the bare minimum – even 199 would have looked a lot less and might have led to increased pressure and possible change (not that it would do much good, but they don’t know that). A higher pro-May vote would isolate the malcontents, instead they will continue to plot

    What did surprise me was that there were no abstentions or blank ballots, again maybe a bad sign – there’s no neutrals that she could win back.

    (Incidentally people were talking about her being able to rely on the ‘payroll vote’, but surely this is a secret ballot and so they can be as (dis)loyal as they want).

  40. R&D

    Congratulations to Daisie!

    Though, to be fair, Rosie’s view is equally important – as she lives in the English polity. It is also the most relevant observation.

    Nativism has no place in civilised society.

  41. ON

    the girls say wuff you very much.

  42. Of the 200 how many really have confidence in her but just voted to keep the “extremists” out

  43. It didn’t inspire much confidence in the 1992 Committee that it took them longer to count and verify 317 votes than it takes the tellers in Sunderland to count 40,000 in a General Election.

  44. @ Roger Mexico

    Agreed its a secret ballot, but anyone would resign if they did not have confidence wouldn’t they?

    Sorry should read:

    Agreed its a secret ballot, but anyone with any honour would resign if they did not have confidence wouldn’t they?

    Sorry its very late “with any honour” I ought to know better we are talking of politicians and I should have said:

    Agreed its a secret ballot, but anyone who thought they would get caught voting the other way would resign if they did not have confidence wouldn’t they?

  45. @ Oldnat

    While you are in jovial mood I forgot to comment on your post yesterday about your son appearing alongside David Tennant in a TV series and if he had stolen the show from him you could have been the proud father of a Doctor Who.

  46. Rees Mogg on television saying that TM has lost the confidence of parliament and bring it together. I wonder whom he has in mind?

    A similarly bonkers (if strictly inconsistent) line is that the hard Brexiters are a minority in parliament but represent the majority (52%) of the country. It is now surely apparent that insofar as Brexiters did have a clear idea of what they were voting for it was a fantasy and could never come to pass. Faced with real choices the majority of the country does not want a hard or no deal Brexit and it is dishonest to pretend that it does.\

  47. ALEC

    Back in late 2016 or early 2017 May should have seized on one of Johnson’s numerous off script speeches and simply sacked him. If you are in the cabinet, you’re in, and if you can’t completely support the government line you either leave of get sacked. By failing to crucify Boris at the first chance, she exposed herself as perennially weak.

    She couldn’t have really got rid of Boris then. The whole point of appointing him and the other Breixteers[1] was to give them enough rope, but that means giving them enough time as well. The longer they stayed in office the more they discredited themselves with public and media the less of a threat they would be when they finally did flounce.

    That’s what more or less did happen, but it needed time for Davis to be seen (at least in the media) as not up to the job and for Boris’s reputation to unravel even more, so even his journalist chums lose hope in him. You can see this in his decline in poll ratings over the last two years, though he still leads the alternatives due to recognition.

    One of the things May. like Corbyn, is very good at is knowing when to do nothing. Both have managed to become unchallengable in their Parties by letting potential rivals make all the mistakes, rather than coming out and attacking them.

    [1] Obviously Boris’s main aim was to be seen leading a Leave campaign that just failed but got the majority of Tory voters and members to back his campaign. Then he could challenge Cameron and become PM. Instead any replacement PM would have to cope with the disaster that the Brexit process would turn out to be. Which explains why someone described Boris, the day after the Referendum, as looking like someone who had just emerged from an LSD trip to discover he had murdered his best friend. (Though obviously you may find the idea that Boris has best friend, rather than himself, rather implausible).

  48. “someone described Boris, the day after the Referendum, as looking like someone who had just emerged from an LSD trip to discover he had murdered his best friend.”

    He looked like that at the press conference in the morning!

  49. The 117 is a bigger number than I had dared to hope for.

    It tells me that there are a substantial number of Tory MPs outwith the Hard-Right 50-to-70-strong group who realise TM is a hopeless leader, has wrong beliefs (as on foreigners when Home Secr), doesn`t deal well with foreign leaders (such as Trump), and is basically a poor advert for the UK across the world.

    So the sooner she is ousted the better, for the Tories and the whole UK.

  50. Shevii

    :-)

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