A brief note about the Survation poll in today’s Mail. A lot of responses to this have really got the wrong end of the stick – the Daily Mail have, quite obviously, written it up with a very pro-deal slant and have not focused upon elements of the poll showing support for no-deal or for a fresh referendum. Nevertheless, the core of the story – that more people said they wanted MPs to vote to support the deal than wanted MPs to reject it – is quite correct.

Firstly, lets us address social media claims that the poll actually showed opposition to the deal and that the Mail has lied about it. This is untrue. What actually happened is that when the Daily Mail front page was published yesterday Survation has not yet put up the full tables, so people looking for the full results on Survation’s website stumbled upon their previous poll for the Daily Mail, which had shown people opposed the deal. Today’s poll is different – and that’s the point of the Mail’s splash – the poll suggests public opinion has changed.

The two polls asked identical questions about support for the deal (so there’s no jiggery-pokery, so changing the wording – it’s a straight comparison).

Survation’s poll conducted on November 15th found that 61% of people had heard about the deal and of those people 27% supported it, 49% opposed it. The full tables for that poll are here (the chart that lots of people were posting on social media this morning was from this poll)

Survation’s new poll conducted on November 27th asked the same questions, and found 72% had now heard about the deal. Of those people 37% supported the deal (up 10), 35% opposed the deal (down 14). The full tables for that poll are here (Wednesday’s Daily Mail story is about this poll)

In the next question Survation asked how people wanted MPs to vote on the deal. 41% said they would like MPs to vote for the deal, 38% would like MPs to vote against the deal.

So far, so good. The poll shows a sharp increase in support for the deal since it was first announced – a fortnight ago the public were opposed by nearly 2-to-1, now it is pretty much neck-and-neck. While this is only a single poll and one shouldn’t read too much into it until there is other polling evidence to back it up, it does appear to be a very clear shift.

However, before one concludes that the public are now leaning in favour of the deal, it’s also worth looking at the other questions in the poll. The poll also repeated questions asking how people would vote in some hypothetical referendums. These suggests that people continue to prefer remaining in the EU to the deal (Remain 46%(+3), Leave with the deal 37%(+3)) and that in a choice between the deal or leaving without one, they’d go for no deal (No deal 41%(+7), deal 35%(+3)).

This leaves us in a bit of a quandary. People narrowly approve of the deal and think MPs should approve it… but they also prefer both of the two obvious alternatives to the deal. For the record, the poll also finds people in favour of a new referendum on the deal by 48% to 34%. It is hard to resist the conclusion that the public are as unclear as the political classes about their preferred way forward.


2,275 Responses to “Does Survation show the public warming towards the Brexit deal?”

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  1. So-Rees Mogg says she still has to change policy -ie remove the backstop from the WA.-or he will vote against it.

    Soubry says she still has to change policy-ie call for REf2 after losing the WA vote.

    The Conservative Party is now ungovernable.

  2. I’m pretty sure that JRM and his group expected to win, or at least get so close that May’s position was untenable. They have failed but pretend that they haven’t because they are desperate for one of their number to take over. No Deal may be slightly more avoidable as the ERG have overplayed their hand. In practical terms, May has more freedom than she did before as she cannot be challenged

    We now have a game of chicken unfolding as I don’t think the EU will be willing to move the end date for anything other than a second referendum and there is only one deal on offer. I don’t think MPs will have the nerve to cancel brexit altogether.

  3. DAVWEL

    your posts make me laugh-one of the more amusing of the endless Groundhog Day experiences available here on UKPR.

    re @”doesn`t deal well with foreign leaders (such as Trump),”-so which global leaders qualify on that one in your opinion.

    :-) :-)

  4. Rees Mogg on television saying that TM has lost the confidence of parliament and bring it together. I wonder whom he has in mind?

    Apologies. I am not drunk just demented. What Rees Mogg obviously said was that TM had lost the confidence of parliament and should resign and be replaced by someone who could get their business through and unite parliament behind them. I imagine he wants the replacement to be a Brexiter. This is, of course, inconsistent with the other ultra Brexit line which is that they are the sole interpreters of the people’s will and that Parliament has a majority of remainers who are busy betraying it.

  5. Like I said before May’s leadership saved by her MP’s.
    Corbyn’s leadership saved dispite his MP’s.

  6. @Davwel

    I suspect she is pretty snug now until March.

    The only cliff edge decision facing anyone will be that facing MPs in January or February.

  7. Now she’s won will someone please replace that little machine she has inside her? You know the one I mean; when you pull the string it speaks one of a set list of phrases. They got rid of ‘strong and stable,’ but I’m getting fed up of ‘the will of the British people,’ and ‘take back control of our money, borders and our laws.’

    It’s all very tedious.

    How about ‘we need to be honest with those who voted leave,’ or ‘I’m afraid freedom of movement will have to stay if we are to avoid a catastrophe’?

    Or ‘by 2022 we will have had six years for leave voters to die off’?

  8. turk

    Corbyn’s leadership wasn’t facing any challenge today. You are just boring on with your pathetic blinkered obsession.

  9. 117/200

    So it would take just over 40 MP’s to move over to ‘no confidence’ for May to lose. And how many are on the government payroll?

  10. It was also an interesting day at Holyrood – which is why I watched the proceedings. Since proceedings in the main chamber in both Parliaments (as opposed to committee hearings) are normally appalling, I usually avoid both.

    Today we had Mike Russell make a statement on Brexit. When the business was planned, it was assumed that he would be talking about the “Meaningful Vote” on Brexit expected yesterday. However, other than the not unexpected support from SLab, SGP and SLD for the Scottish Government’s position, an intriguing addition was the SCon policy head talking approvingly of the Norway + scenario.

    If that was serious, then it would move SCon closer to the Scot Gov compromise proposal – just as Scot Gov seems to be edging away from that compromise which had been developed to accommodate the vote in E&W.

    We also had the announcement of the draft Scottish Budget. The responses of the 2 largest opposition parties were the usual rhetoric –

    SCon – Cut taxes on the better paid
    SLab – Spend more
    SLD – We’re not going to engage unless SNP drops idea of indy.

    We are in the interesting position where none of the GB parties even pretend to have policies that would encourage voters to install them as a party of government.

    Greens raised the question of local government tax reform (which they have long signalled as their price for supporting the Budget) and the Finance Secretary indicated his willingness to engage in such discussions.

    I’m an old political cynic and that struck me as the initial moves in a pre-arranged dance between SNP and SGP, whereby a strategy that had been privately agreed as being worthwhile would be implemented in a process that allowed the Greens to get the credit.

    Clever politics IMHO.

  11. Perhaps worth noting that, if the Tories hadn’t rapidly lifted the suspension of two MPs (for sexual impropriety), May’s vote would have fallen below the psychologically important 200 number.

    117 to 198 sounds much worse – as every retailer selling things at £7.99 knows full well.

  12. Steamdriveandy,

    “And how many are on the government payroll?”

    As it’s a secret ballot it doesn’t matter, what could she do if it was clear some had voted against her…sack all on the Payroll and recruit from those who didn’t want her!

    Peter.

  13. On hearing the result Jack continued to lie under the lounge curtains, with his black nose just poking out from underneath and Pippin rolled over on her back with her legs in the air on ‘her’ sofa. They congratulate Statgreek on the stunning win but believe it wasn’t really anything worth barking about.

  14. @ON

    Lovely story about the Missouri City election won with no votes. I believe there is a commune in France with only one resident. He probably refuses to vote as he was unhappy with his performance, and stormed out of a recent meeting.

  15. Oldnat,

    “Perhaps worth noting that, if the Tories hadn’t rapidly lifted the suspension of two MPs”

    Again, regardless of what they might have promised…it was a secret ballot, they may have voted against May!

    Peter.

  16. So we still have a deal that won’t pass the HoC and the threat of a hard Brexit. I can’t see Parliament backing down and I can’t see May letting it go to Hard Brexit by default. So it looks like a referendum and why draw out the misery?

  17. Colin.

    For a simpering relationship with Trump, what stateswoman could have achieved more than Theresa, walking arm-in-arm with him soon after their first meeting.

    Angela Merkel has done better.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/26/world/europe/germany-angela-merkel-donald-trump.html

  18. I realise that it was a secret ballot, but how many MP’s are on the payroll as that would give us a rough idea of how many backbench Tory MPs supported her, give or take?

  19. Peter Cairns

    “it was a secret ballot, they may have voted against May!”

    Maybe, but the requirement that Tory MPs had to produce photo ID, and that those MPs produced rather explicit compromising images of themselves may have ensured that how they voted was actually noted by the scrutineers.

    If the suspensions are reinstated, we’ll know that they broke their word.

  20. Steam Driven Andy

    I don’t think that there’s a totally confirmed number of MPs “on the take” from the UK Government, but 165 has been quoted.

  21. Nick P.

    Re Turks:

    ”Like I said before May’s leadership saved by her MP’s.
    Corbyn’s leadership saved dispite his MP’s.”

    This is of course true in it simplest sense but perhaps the irony is that now Corbyn has MPs acquiescing while may has her MPs revolting. Or put another way despite May being supported by over 3 times a higher proportion of Tory MPs than Corbyn was amongst Labour ones his position is more secure and powerful within their respective parties.

  22. They congratulate Statgreek on the stunning win but believe it wasn’t really anything worth barking about

    ?????????!

  23. Nice stage managing by No10/Graham Brady enterprises with a few dozen loyalist mps greeting the result with acclamation live on tv.

    On the other hand Nigel Evans face was a picture-must have swallowed a wasp.

    No doubt Graham Brady will now switch his phone off ,some backbench shop steward he turned out to be ,hand in glove with management

    Gove moving closer to turning into Francis Urquart.

  24. AW had better start a new thread soon, the clock is ticking. Still, it’s not like there’s much to discuss right now, perhaps we could all do with a few days off.

  25. Steam Driven Andy –

    There’s a bit of debate as to which roles are actually counted as being ‘on the payroll’ (there are some unpaid positions that some people consider also count), but the number is 150 – 160.

    So that basically means out of the 160-odd backbenchers, only around 45 actually support their party leader.

    Pretty damning.

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