Just to catch up on the post-budget YouGov polling from yesterday’s Times, carried out on Monday evening and Tuesday morning.

At the simplest level, the budget appears to have polled well. All the measures within met with approval and overall people thought it was a fair budget (44% fair, 14% unfair). Compared to other recent budgets, that’s a very positive score. However, in all fairness that’s what one should expect – it was very much a giveaway budget, with the Chancellor making several large spending announcements and very little in the way of tax increases. Even those tax increases that were announced – mostly notably the plastics tax and tax on internet companies – were ones that were largely popular. It’s hardly surprising that sort of budget gets net positive ratings – increases to NHS funding, the personal allowance and the National Living Wage are always likely to go down well.

A positively received budget does not, however, necessarily translate into a boost in the polls. The voting intention figures in the poll are CON 41%(nc), LAB 39%(+3), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). The three point increase in Labour support doesn’t necessarily mean anything – it’s within the normal margin of error – but it certainly doesn’t point towards a budget boost for the Tories.

The poll also asked about the wider perceptions around the “end of austerity”, and here the figures are far less rosy for the Conservatives. Looking back, by 36% to 29% people think that the austerity polices followed after the 2010 election were necessary, though by 36% to 30% they now think they didn’t help the economy and by 43% to 20% they think they were unfair.

58% of people now think it is right to end austerity (27% who think it was wrong to begin with, 31% who thought it was right at the time, but it is now time to end it). Unfortunately for the government, while people may be in agreement with their stated policy, they don’t actually believe they are doing it – only 10% think the government have ended austerity policies, 50% think they have not.

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2,159 Responses to “YouGov post-budget poll”

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  1. I think “Civil Unrest” is pretty unlikely.

    Look at the breakdown of the leave vote;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted

    An alliance of the old and the unqualified is unlikely to produce more than some angry letters to the Daily Mail and an old sofa burning on a Council estate.

    A successful rebellions in a developed Country needs the Middle Class to back change.

    Peter.

  2. @BFR

    “This idea that there is a Liberal elite secretly running things is a myth, unless you subscribe to the Carfrew view that all politicians on the spectrum between JRM and Corbyn are really Liberals…”

    ——-

    No, I subscribe to the view that most people*, agree with bits of Liberalism. Which bits, and how much, varies. Most people also embrace some Socialism, some Conservatism etc.

    *and yes, I’m including politicians in that…

  3. I suspect the vote on the deal will be very, very close.

    Over the next few weeks there will be a lot of arm twisting with MPs forced to carefully consider the consequences of their vote.

    If you are a Remainer or soft leaver then you are an easy target as the deal respects the referendum (just) but will have no terrible consequences for a couple of years. Reject the deal, we crash out and it is your fault. It would take a very brave Tory Remainer to vote against the deal.

    For Leaver the dilemma is the risk of another referendum which will be much harder to win. Already behind in the polls, the Remain campaign will be a lot stronger and passionate second time round and not take a win for granted. So why not take what is on the table, get one foot out the door and finish the job later?

    Obviously if you have posted your no confidence letter on Twitter then you will have to eat a huge portion of humble pie. So far 24 (I think) have done this, is that enough to scupper the deal especially if they abstain?

  4. @ GARJ – It looks like no leadership challenge just yet thankfully. However, I’m awaiting replies for my FTPA post – appreciate your input. I have many doubts about the “logic” in that post and hope for input from others.

    IMHO the head bangers would be v.v.v.happy with a failed
    Coup d’état knowing when “No Deal” hits it will result in a Coup de grâce to end May’s “zombie” govt. This route might well mean the new leader doesn’t last long as PM and ends up being leader of the opposition with Corbyn in #10 and McDonnell in #11. Note I only think CON has 10-20 headbangers (see earlier post on splitting CON-Leave up between 3 blended factions)

    Again why I strongly favour the “caretaker” option soonish – just not Gove, anyone but him.

    @ JJ – McDonnell’s LAB speech

    “The greater the mess we inherit, the more radical we have to be”

    He wants to be more radical hence he wants a greater mess and it will be very easy to blame May – I blame May!

    Also his comments into the conf about new ref – hastily retracted with Starmer then saving the LAB-Remain VI

    McDonnell is a very clever politician (unlike Corbyn who is far too honest, not that folks notice!) but McDonnell does occasionally let his guard down and expose the inner Marxist!

    SNP – all they care about is Independence. They state they are worried NI will gain a competitive edge over Scotland. May-EC can’t give Scotland the same backstop as NI but by ensuring May’s deal fails Sturgeon stirs up Indy feeling – chaos isn’t a pit, chaos is a ladder!
    (a total celt said that in GoT but it applies to Sturgeon’s thought process IMHO)
    They have to be very careful with the new ref issue though (but are smart enough to copy McDonnell on that!)

    Unlike you I DO think “SNP would want years of economic problems as a price worth paying for indy ref 2”

    Have you read Indy ref manifesto v1 or even worse v2?

    DUP – they are opposite to SNP. They (rightly) see the backstop as an eventual break-up of UK. No Deal = no backstop. English taxpayers pick up their bill. A weaker £, less competition from RoI and HMG reliant on their votes will also boost their economy (I went through that with SAM some time ago). They also want to stick two fingers up at Varadkar (and I sympathise with that!)

    As you say: “they calculate that their long term aims are more likely if this (No Deal) happens”

    All IMHO of course.

    Finally LAB, SNP and DUP will all vote against May’s deal and all three would be happy/OK if that causes a GE. As a few folks have spotted May’s deal is very close to what LAB and SNP profess to want (if you view it from EC’s endgame not May’s n4ivity)

  5. “Civil unrest” would equate to angry tweets and the odd placard.

    Not worth calling the army out, that’s for sure…

  6. Trevor, thanks for confirming it is all opinion and interpretation from your view point re SNP, McDonnell etc wanting chaos. Neither have said this but you are entitled to your view and I am entitled to disagree but I won’t claim my view is fact.

  7. @Danny

    “The problem is that the last referendum produced only a half hearted vote to leave.”

    Oh please! Outside London and Scotland, it was a landslide!

  8. @JiB

    What is your definition of a landslide? As well as Scotland and London, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar also voted for remain, while the South East, South West And Wales were all more or less in line with the National result whic fairly close and hardly in the landslide territory.

  9. @David Colby – “I’m glad I’m not alone.”

    You’re never alone on UKPR.

    There’s always one nutter who agrees with you.

    :)

  10. “Whic” should have been which was

  11. @Norbold

    At a constituency and Regional level, and absolute landslide in my view.

    And hence the respect from most ELECTED politicians for the result.

  12. “At a constituency and Regional level, and absolute landslide in my view.”

    And after all that’s what counts;

    Not the vote tally, not the statistics or the percentages but….”My View”

    And you wonder why some of us despair of Brexiteers.

    Talking of despair Mogg’s Rebellion is a bit like Le Mis!

    “We’ll man the barricades and at dawn the people will rise up and join us!”

    By my reckoning it’s mid morning and everyones still in bed!

    Peter.

  13. Alec,

    “You’re never alone on UKPR.”

    Are you part of the Spanish Inquisition?
    I wouldn’t have expected that!

    Peter.

  14. So Amber Rudd, who resigned as Home Secretary for misleading the Home Affairs Select Committee is now, just 6 months later, back in the Cabinet as Work and Pensions Secretary..

  15. JiB

    “At a constituency and Regional level, and absolute landslide in my view.
    And hence the respect from most ELECTED politicians for the result”

    So, somehow in your view Northern Ireland voted by a landslide to leave. How strange you are.

  16. ““I reckon we will see major civil unrest if the initial result is in anyway overturned.”

    Too right.

    All those raging old men spitting out their falsies at the polis as they shout against the betrayal, flinging their Tena for Men incontinence pants at those evil young people* and threatening to beat remain voters, but only if they can remember where they left their car keys because I’ve left my walking stick in the boot and… my isn’t it a bit nippy today…I had a boiled egg this morning, is it Tuesday? what’s that black man doing here, I thought we won the war…

    *Anyone under the age of 65

  17. Alec,

    You forgot the bit about Farage rallying them on the Steps (they can’t get up) of Parliament.

    “Countrymen you have nothing to lose but your free TV Licences, Winter Fuel Allowances, Free Prescriptions for Long Term Illnesses, Hip & Knee replacements costing more than a decades NI contributions, the State picking up most of your care costs while you stay in your nice house, your Triple Locked Pensions….

    Peter.

  18. @Norbold

    I’m fully aware of the mixed results in Northern Ireland, and an overall wish to remain.

    I know the concept of respecting the democratic outcome is strange for some condescending Remainers!

  19. After the Scottish Referendum I felt that the great failure in such referenda is that the electorate were voting on an unsettled proposal where both sides could invent issues and responses and neither could be proven. The vote basically rested on either believing or disbelieving your preferred choice with no firm knowledge of what might then occur. Think oil revenue, currency, borders, armed forces etc etc.

    The EU referendum was done on the same basis. With truths, untruths and damned lies on both sides in an unholy soup.

    Referenda should be based on firm, fixed finalised deals and then the electorate are making more of an informed choice, not a mostly emotional one.

  20. Peter – the ERG will believe/hope/expect (take your pick) that after MPs consult with the Associations this weekend more letters will flow on Monday and/or Tuesday.

    Would be kind of funny if they did not get 48 names, although I do expect them to do so based on media coverage.

  21. New YG poll

    Draft Brexit Deal

    Support 15
    Oppose 51
    DK 33

    Net 36 oppose
    X-breaks: CON 27 oppose, LAB 51 oppose (good luck winning LAB MPs over!)

    Bit explantation of the “deal” (obviously not 585 + 7 + 2 pages but seems reasonable summary)

    Good for Britain 19
    Not good for Britain 50
    DK 31
    (not huge range in X-breaks, modest loyalty boost from CON VI)

    It goes on in the same vein – doesn’t respect referendum, unhappy if ends up going ahead.

    Lots more in there, mostly bad for May (but worse for the named alternative, incl Corbyn!), good for Peoplesvote folks, etc (quite similar to Survation at a quick glance)

    Final question not as bad as I’d have thought. Putting the drama aside and considering the trashing “No Deal” has received, 38% aren’t worried about No Deal (although net -11 overall, +26 for CON VI)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jo0rjepatj/TimesResults_181115_Brexit_W.pdf

    No straight VI in these tabs, maybe coming later?

  22. @ Norbold

    The subsequent enquiry into Amber Rudd made it very clear that she misled the House because she believed what her civil servants told her.

    @Alec

    I’m definitely over 65 and what makes me rage is the pig-headed obstinacy of Brexiteers who can’t see when we are well off and who are happy to trash not only European unity, but also to put at risk that union that TM calls ‘precious’, but does b888er all to preserve.

    There, I feel better now, except that I still can’t find my walking stick.

  23. TW

    I don’t see much wrong in your understanding of the FTPA, though I’m no expert. Certainly May would be very happy with a failed attempt to remove her, as it removes about the only mechanism by which someone can derail her plans. I agree with ALEC’s view that the delays and obfuscation have all been about running down the clock so as to keep herself in post and prevent any alternative plans from coming to the fore. If the WA is rejected by parliament her plan is no doubt to shrug her shoulders and resubmit it in the hope that the ticking clock brings some critics round. In such a situation just about the only way to shift her would have been for her own party to do it, but if she gets her year of immunity that becomes impossible.

    That’s most likely why some of the ERG are holding off, because they feel that they’d have a better chance of winning the vote of confidence once the WA has been rejected, but once the 48 letters have gone in they’ll be forced to act. It may still happen, reports are mixed. If it does then whether they can succeed or not may well depend on whether the moderate candidates are on manoeuvres and can convince some waverers that they have the numbers to block the ERG’s preferred candidate.

  24. Alec

    “at those evil young people*
    *Anyone under the age of 65

    If I may gently interrupt your rant, it has to be anyone under the age of 50 as the as the majority of 50 and over were for leave.

  25. Jonesinbangor,

    “I know the concept of respecting the democratic outcome is strange for some condescending Remainers!”

    Not at all, but ignoring the numbers to make silly claims about the nature of the result certainly is!

    Peter.

  26. I hope that some journalist will soon ask Amber Rudd if there are quotas for the number of benefit sanctions to be applied to the more disadvantaged people of the UK.

  27. @ ALEC / PETER / ETC – A 52y old murdered Jo Cox and not using “Tena for Men incontinence pants”

    Remain frequently cite avoiding risk of civil unrest in NI but seem to have forgotten the last ref already.

    FWIW the age x-break on the “civil unrest” was:

    18-24: 25
    25-49: 25
    50-64: 37
    65+: 42

    Skewed to older folks but by no means just older folks. I’m happy to say the wording is an issue (ie many folks picked the most dramatic “Leave” response) and move on to other polls and discussion.

    At least two new polls released today both with quite a lot of info (although I’ll admit little new or surprising), let’s try to keep the polite discussion and debate going and not sink to ageism and steroetypes. I’ve been guilty in the past I confess!

    POETS day so I’m signing off. I hope everyone has a good evening. I’d be most grateful for some feedback on my FTPA post from earlier if anyone has the time – thanks in advance.

  28. “If I may gently interrupt your rant, it has to be anyone under the age of 50 as the as the majority of 50 and over were for leave.”

    But as those over 65 voted 2:1 to leave 50-64 only 3:2 and those 25-49 8:9 and turnout also rose with age the actual break even point is probably 53 plus.

    The highest outcome figures for leave are according to Yougov when balanced for the UK population;

    Social Grade; DE, Education; GCSE or lower, Income under £20k, Political Attention; Low, Vote; UKIP, Gender; Male, Age; 65+

    Alf Garnett lives on!

    Peter.

  29. @Peter Cairns SNP

    I accept the use of landslide may be have an element of artisticicence, but the result did illustrate clearly that the UK wanted out of the Federalist EU integration project.

    I personally think the deal on offer is fair, and the ending of free movement whilst maintaining the access to the EEA single market is quite a coup and a large concession from the EU.

    Comfortable with a yes or no confirmatory referendum to be honest.

  30. TREVOR WARNE,

    Your cross breaks peak at 42%; less than the losing side in either the EU or Scottish referendum and the closest we’ve seen from the millions in both disappointed by the result is some witty posters.

    Oh and your 52year old murderer is only 1 year below my estimated break even.

    The peak Remain voter works out at a Green voting, AB, female graduate earning over £60k with a high political attention.

    Not quite Gina Miller but close!

    Peter.

  31. JONESINBANGOR,

    “artisticicence” is that another word for false?

    As to “I personally think” well like “in my view” that fact that you like it and voted leave, doesn’t make it what most leave voters wanted or thought they would get.

    Peter.

  32. TW

    @”New YG poll

    Draft Brexit Deal”

    And how many of the respondents have read any of the 500 + pages & understood the key issues?

    As for the Document which actually matter-the Political Framework for future relationship, the ONLY reference to it I have seen today on tv news is Sky’s Brussels Reporter.

    Polling on the WA is as useless as Referendums on Brexit.

  33. “You’re never alone on UKPR.”

    I thought it was “You’re never alone with a Strand”?
    ————————–
    Alec
    “I thought we won the war…”

    Talking of the war, I notice that Merkel said there could be no renegotiation of the WA. So we know who calls the shots. Further evidence that the EU is really the Fourth Reich. And May is the equivalent of Marshal Petain, leading us into Vichy Britain.

  34. ALEC

    “There’s always one nutter who agrees with you.”

    I agree.
    :)

  35. The central issue of Brexit remains the inability of the Conservative party to agree what it wants as a relationship with the EU. If that can’t be resolved the UK government can’t make an agreement with the EU. And it needs a deal with which the DUP will agree.

    Another problem is that there is no deal that the EU will provide that is acceptable to these parties.

    If it is the case that the Labour party will accept membership of the Customs Union and Single Market membership why would it leave the EU at all? If the Labour party does not want to accept membership of the CU and SM why does it wish to inflict economic damage on the UK?

  36. JiB

    “Oh please! Outside London and Scotland, it was a landslide!”

    I’m glad that you listed Liverpool and Manchester under London or Scotland.

    Problem with the geography classes that you skipped, I assume.

    This study may help you with your landslide vision

    https://medium.com/@jakeybob/brexit-maps-d70caab7315e

  37. That helped me too RichardW. I’m over 65 and don’t understand where this ‘old folk are all Leavers’ came from. Certainly not my friends and acquaintances, only one of whom uses a stick and you can’t borrow it.

  38. Sam,

    The Labour Party is over 95% united imo about the need for the UK to be in a customs arrangement with the EU, which can be delivered in different ways.

    There is no consensus yet about Single market access and what price to pay in terms of four freedoms (plus hard cash I guess) adoption etc.

    Hence the official policy of staying close the Single Market in away to be determined during negotiations

  39. JIM JAM

    @”The Labour Party is over 95% united imo about the need for the UK to be in a customs arrangement with the EU,”

    ………….ie the arrangement for trade in Goods proposed in the White Paper & set out in the Political Framework for Future relationship, attached to the WA.

    Labour will vote against the WA & PF.

    ?

  40. Do you have any plans to update the table to the right of the header page, it’s nearly two months since it was last updated.

  41. @Peter Cairns

    I believe most Leave voters were after a realignment in our relationship to a looser non-Federal arrangement, and an end of free movement to a more balanced arrangement.

    Certainly not a hard ERG Brexit, 20-30 MPs in Westminster is probably a fair reflection of the electoral popularity of that idea.

  42. LASZLO

    Nothing wrong with my geography. What was I saying about condescending Remainers?

  43. Labour want a permanent Customs Partnership Colin not just something that might only last for a few months as a back-stop.

    (That’s the official line at least).

    FWIW, had a position not far from that on offer been arrived at by involving Labour (and others) genuinely on a cross party basis instead of Mrs May laying down lots of red lines for the benefit of the hard right of her party, which would inevitably be breached, opposition support may have been forthcoming.

    She seems to run a centralized operation involving few Elected Conservative colleagues so embracing opposition parties was never likely.

    If the deal fails it will be because the Conservative party couldn’t deliver and attempts to blame Labour wont work beyond tribal Tories, imo.

  44. JIB My understanding is that only around 14 per cent of the country want a May deal and 32 percent no deal. I guess that if we stick with Brexit the M ay deal is is the most likely outcome. This does not seem to me very democratic and particularly so as it was not what most people expected at the time of the referendum and it was not on the ballot paper. All this combined with the fact that there is now apparently a majority for a people’s vote makes me highly sceptical of any claims that we need to respect the referendum because it is ‘democratic’ to do so.

    As TW points out the leave vote is split. We need, in my view, to clarity what they really want – no deal or May and then see whether the country want this clear option or remain, In my view that would be more democratic. In theory this could happen in parliament or through a referendum.

  45. @Charles

    The deal needs to be explained to the public. I’d suggest 80% don’t have a clue what the content of the Withdrawal Agreement is.

    May y don’t understand that a Future Relationship post WA still is to be agreed.

  46. “Talking of the war, I notice that Merkel said there could be no renegotiation of the WA. So we know who calls the shots. Further evidence that the EU is really the Fourth Reich. And May is the equivalent of Marshal Petain, leading us into Vichy Britain.”

    No doubt you are aware that Merkel was not the only European leader to say this, nor was she the first.

    So I suppose that makes you the equivalent of William Joyce.

  47. How likely is this scenario?

    May puts her deal to HOC and it is voted down,

    Whips go to ERG and say ‘we are putting it back again. If it is voted down we will make an alliance with Labour and go for a people’s vote’

    ERG capitulate and May gets her deal.

    I am genuinely not sure of the arithmetic of this, TW is always giving us numbers and might help.

  48. Trevor Warne (anyone, polling!)

    The yougov you quote on the deal, I had a look. My conclusion, Remain has the greatest support choosing between remain, deal or no deal.

    Only 50% of leavers suport a no deal brexit. All other groups support no deal less (25% overall)
    Only 25% of leavers support a brexit with the government deal. 29% of tories support it, but everyone else supports it less (19% overall)

    Wrong to leave 47%, right to leave 40%. Gap ticked a notch wider.

    How funny! 65% thought the government is negotiating badly. But 81% of remainers and 78% of leavers thought they were doing badly. Both remain and leave were more convinced that the government was doing a bad job than was the public as a whole!

    Interestingly again, the lowest score for doing badly 59% was from 18-24 year olds, supposedly the remain generation. (but lots of dont know)

    Exactly the same pattern on the question do you support or oppose the draft brexit deal (oppose 51:15), the least opposition was amongst 18-24s.
    Tories opposed the deal 2:1. Labour opposed the deal 6:1. (incidentally, labour oppose brexit only about 3:1, so they are even more opposed to this deal)

    Then there was a slightly different question, whether the deal is good or bad for britain. It seems to have scored a little better on this test than on whether people support it. 50:19 think the deal bad for Britain. Both leave and remain think it bad for britain (2:1 leave, 3:1 remain)

    later in the poll they ask whether a ‘no deal’ brexit would be good or bad for britain. all, bad 50:25. labour 4:1 bad, tory 44:35 good, leave 2:1 good, remain 16:1 bad. So even amongst leave 1/4 think this would be a bad outcome (or grossed up to 1/3 eliminating those saying dont know.

    About 3:2 the nation thinks the deal does respect the referendum result. The numbers vary a bit, but in all groups more think it does respect the referendum than does not.

    2.5:1 the nation would not be happy if the deal goes ahead. 1.5:1 unhappy tories. 5:1 unhappy labour.

    Next question harder to interpret, is it a good deal, poor but as good a deal as was possible, could have got better.

    A tiny majority 38:37 think it is either good or as good as was possible to get. Tories 45:44 think it is good or as good as possible. labour 33:41 think a better deal was possible. Libs actually 2:1 think it is either good or as good a deal as was possible, but most of them think it was merely the best which could be negotiated, but not a good deal. Overall only 10% think it a good deal.

    Then asked what should we do now, pick one. Highest score 28% for remain in the EU. second highest reject the deal and take no deal 19%. 16% take the deal. 11% renegotiate. 8% referendum.

    Fairly equal split on whether it would be good to delay to allow time for renegotiations.

    Binary choice 60:40 accept the deal rather than go no deal. Labour 70:30, tory 55:45 for rejecting the deal, which is actually quite close even though most oppose the deal. Remainers take the deal 81:19, leavers refuse it 36:64.

    Binary choice accept the deal or have a referendum, the nation prefers a referendum 56:44. tory take the deal 70:30, labour take referendum 73:27. 18-24 year olds pretty massively 80:20 would have a new referendum.

    a referendum is preferred to accepting no deal by a similar amount, 54:46. Similar pattern to the previosu question. So on the whole, the nation would prefer another referendum to accepting either deal or no deal.

    Tersa May herself has 47:33 she should stand down. Tories narrowly want to keep her, libs curiously just barely want to keep her. All groups think she should stand down if her deal is rejected. 2:1 think no other tory could get a better deal. Leavers 41:37 think someone else could have done better, but thats the only group thinking so. Bit unfair thinking she should stand down if her deal fails, but not thinking anyone else could have done better.

  49. Very unlikely Charles.

  50. @Pete B – try having a read of this – https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/16/brexit-paranoid-fantasy-fintan-otoole

    “In the dark imagination of English reactionaries, Britain is always a defeated nation – and the EU is the imaginary invader”

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