Just to catch up on the post-budget YouGov polling from yesterday’s Times, carried out on Monday evening and Tuesday morning.

At the simplest level, the budget appears to have polled well. All the measures within met with approval and overall people thought it was a fair budget (44% fair, 14% unfair). Compared to other recent budgets, that’s a very positive score. However, in all fairness that’s what one should expect – it was very much a giveaway budget, with the Chancellor making several large spending announcements and very little in the way of tax increases. Even those tax increases that were announced – mostly notably the plastics tax and tax on internet companies – were ones that were largely popular. It’s hardly surprising that sort of budget gets net positive ratings – increases to NHS funding, the personal allowance and the National Living Wage are always likely to go down well.

A positively received budget does not, however, necessarily translate into a boost in the polls. The voting intention figures in the poll are CON 41%(nc), LAB 39%(+3), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). The three point increase in Labour support doesn’t necessarily mean anything – it’s within the normal margin of error – but it certainly doesn’t point towards a budget boost for the Tories.

The poll also asked about the wider perceptions around the “end of austerity”, and here the figures are far less rosy for the Conservatives. Looking back, by 36% to 29% people think that the austerity polices followed after the 2010 election were necessary, though by 36% to 30% they now think they didn’t help the economy and by 43% to 20% they think they were unfair.

58% of people now think it is right to end austerity (27% who think it was wrong to begin with, 31% who thought it was right at the time, but it is now time to end it). Unfortunately for the government, while people may be in agreement with their stated policy, they don’t actually believe they are doing it – only 10% think the government have ended austerity policies, 50% think they have not.

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1,814 Responses to “YouGov post-budget poll”

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  1. Skydata Poll

    https://interactive.news.sky.com/BREXIT1_151118.pdf

    From the Guardian

    The bad news for Theresa May is that, of the three options that she says are open to the country (at least, the three options she mentioned in her statement last night – in the Commons today she was claiming no Brexit was not an option), her deal is the last popular. Staying in the EU would be the most popular, suggesting it would win comfortably if the government were to hold a three-option referendum of the type favoured by Justine Greening.

    But the good news is that, despite thinking her plan is rubbish, Britons still trust May to lead the country through Brexit more than any of the obvious alternatives, the poll suggests.

    Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
    No Brexit 54%
    No deal 32%
    Her deal 14%

    Second @Skydata poll q: Would you support or oppose a referendum choosing between the draft Brexit deal proposed by Theresa May, Brexit without a deal, or remaining in the EU?
    Strongly support 44%
    Tend to support 11%
    Tend to oppose 7%
    Strongly oppose 28%
    Don’t know 10%

    Third @skydata q: Who would you most trust to lead the country through Brexit?
    Theresa May 31%
    Jeremy Corbyn 25%
    Jacob Rees-Mogg 18%
    Boris Johnson 17%
    Dominic Raab 10%

  2. JIMJAM

    “I am not in the running for calling correctly,as I thought fudge and mudge to a WA with substantive negotiation on the future relationship occurring during transition. what do I know!!”

    Not my active intention either. I just give my views. Sometimes they change. What does any of us really know?

    TW

    From memory you have got that right, so no correction necessary as far as i am concerned.

  3. Old at,

    “Sky snap poll part 2”

    What no option of Angelina Jolie or Jenifer Aniston!!!!

    Peter.

  4. @Trevors – I’m glad I can amuse you all.

    You are factually incorrect on virtually every line of your 4.06pm post.

    Other than that, it’s a great post.

    For what it’s worth, my view remains as it was the day after the referendum – we’ll stay after a second vote. Never 100% certain of anything in life, but feeling moderately confident on this tonight.

  5. Peter Cairns

    That SkyNews failed to include Chris Pine either demonstrates their inability to identify obvious members.

  6. Sky poll:

    Would you support or oppose a referendum choosing between the draft Brexit deal proposed by Theresa May, Brexit without a deal, or remaining in the EU?
    Strongly support 44%
    Tend to support 11%
    Tend to oppose 7%
    Strongly oppose 28%
    Don’t know 10%

    Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
    No Brexit 54%
    No deal 32%
    Her deal 14%

  7. @Carfrew – “It’s quite remarkable that contract payments for back up generation have been blocked by the ECJ, and it means a complete rethink of how we keep the lights on.”

    Not that surprising,

    It was a terribly badly designed scheme that unfairly favoured a particular sector (fast reaction fossil fuel generators) over other options. It seems to be this element of unfair ‘subsidy’ that has tipped the judgement, although I haven’t picked through the case in detail.

    Essentially it’s been knocked back as it has been viewed as states aid, and not been cleared by the commission. The government could ask the EC for clearance and still go ahead with the scheme as is, if they can justify the need for the aid, but they didn’t do this, and instead pretended that the scheme was an all industry contract based system that didn’t discriminate.

    I tend to view this as the ECJ getting the right verdict, with the fault being HMG cock up.

  8. It seems another criteria to be PM just now is a hide like a rhinocerous and enormous stamina.

    It looks to me as though her arguments before the last election, that ‘no dea’l is the only credible kind of Brexit might be correct. But it continues to be true that this was rejected by the nation in the recent election. Making a deal was already her fallback position after ‘no deal’ had been rejected.

    When she intimates that for anyone wanting any kind of brexit, the ‘deal’ is all there is, she could be correct.

    Bigfatron,
    “This is genuinely – IMHO – the most incompetent government in my living memory, opposed by the most incompetent opposition… :-(”
    Or a supreme example of tactical maneuvering.

    “Other theme developing is that May is not safe and could lose [being PM].”

    Or as has been pointed out, if there is a vote now which she wins, it could innoculate her against further challenges during the last critical months of the brexit timetable and just after.

    Alec,
    ” Tactically she played a very poor hand badly, but on a personal level I admire her. ”
    What was her aim? The outcome must be measured against the aim. In my remain scenario, an aim is to create a situation in which it is not possible to execute Brexit.

    Listening to MPs now, it sounds just like the new referndum campaign is already running.

  9. Mrs May has tried to do the impossible – square the Brexit circle.

    Like @Alec, I think she has shown remarkable stamina above and beyond the call of duty, when the whinging Brexiteers (Johnson et la) quit and carp from the sidelines.

    She’s done her bit. She has ‘manned up’ when her male colleagues have run for hills.

    She should tell them to s*d off, quit and retire to a quite country cottage and take up spoon whittling.

  10. JonesinBangor,
    “Blue touch paper is lit on ….the Tory Civil War!”

    on….Brexit firework display!

    Pete B,
    “Perhaps I’m older than you, but Heath’s government was pretty dire”

    I was too young to understand the politics properly. Heath was the end of an era. Or maybe he was unlucky in that the time for change had not quite arrived, so he suffered the backlash trying to face down the unions without public support.

    How good May’s timing is, remains to be seen.

    “partly her own fault by calling a GE”
    …..no,no,no: it was essential to have a referendum on hard brexit.

    Alec,
    “Tusk: “We are also prepared for a no-deal scenario but of course we are best prepared for a no-Brexit scenario.””

    The Trevors, did you recently ask for confirmation that the EU would be happy for the Uk to remain?

    JimJam (and many others)
    I understand a referendum has difficulties, but I dont see that an election would solve the problem of what to do in the case of a split parliament. We could easily have an election and come back exactly as now.

    Rosieand Daisie,
    “I’m amazed that the EU genuinely still prefer we stay.”

    Its family. Rows, but…its family.

  11. Must say I’m dreading the protests from Farage etc if this goes back to the country.

    The most pragmatic and simplest of options is to use December’s Commons’ vote to offer the principal three options: no deal, agreed deal or stay, and go with the one that receives most votes. That way Parliament makes the decision.

    The problem with a referendum is the actual campaigns. They would be worse that last time and more bitter.

    That won’t happen but it’s hard to see what will. It’s also hard to understand how the Rees-Mogg tendency really think they have anything like majority support within their party – never mind the HOC – or that they represent the majority of the UK.

  12. If I were advising May I might suggest that she thought twice about standing on the steps of number 10 to deliver the words which are currently coming out of her mouth.

    All opposition parties are lined up to vote against the deal she is describing, including the DUP, either six or seven of her own ministers or bag carriers have resigned today so that they can vote against it, even without the ERG joining in there is no chance of this going through, and the icing on the cake which can’t be had and eaten is that even Hoey and Skinner have come out and said that they won’t be voting with her this time.

    Norma Desmond eat your heart out.

  13. @Danny – “What was her aim?”

    I suspect not a great deal more than get Brexit done, however that could be achieved, and put it behind us – but more importantly put it behind her party. Nothing more than that.

  14. I almost feel sorry for her

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