Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor poll for the Standard was published yesterday. Topline voting intentions were CON 39%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%. The two point lead is unchanged from MORI’s previous poll in September, and are very much in line with the other recent voting intention polls since my last update. YouGov and Kantar polls last week both showed 5 point Conservative leads, a Survation poll a one point Tory lead.

While voting intention polls continue to show a small Tory lead, the underlying figures remain poor. People don’t rate the government or the Prime Minister (net satisfaction for the government is minus 48, for Theresa May it’s minus 32), economic optimism is low (61% expect the general economic condition of the country to get worse over the next year) and confidence in May’s ability to get a good Brexit deal continues to trickle downwards, this latest poll has 19% saying they are confident, 78% saying they are not.

Full tabs for the MORI poll are here.


797 Responses to “Ipsos-MORI/Standard – CON 39, LAB 37, LDEM 10”

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  1. TW

    Yes-he seems to be saying I can come & talk to you on 21 Nov because we will have concluded a deal by then !!

  2. ALEC

    @”Bottom line is that the EU internal markets for services is most accessible and open multi state service market for members of
    the organisation, and the OECD figures help to demonstrate this.”

    Well I don’t know if it does or not.

    Because the internal EU Services Market features different barriers to entry between members -as shown in the EU study-you cannot be sure how much of the OECD STRI components actually apply within the EU.

    How do you know that OECD aren’t quantifying the disparate rules for professional qualifications between EU member states in their ” Restrictions to Movement of People” component ? ( see * below)

    If you can find data which compares a weighted evaluation of barriers to intra bloc Services Trade between EU and other major Trading blocs I will be happy to read it.

    I can’t find such.

    * “In the case of regulated professions,professionals from other Member States may have to go through the recognition process. This often requires paying substantial fees and can be timeconsuming and cumbersome. This directly affects the mobility of professionals, which has a knock-on effect on the amount of
    skills available to businesses.Despite the high recognition rates of
    professional qualifications facilitated by the modernised EU Professional Qualifications Directive18 , the mobility of
    workers remains low. In 2015, across the whole business economy, 3.6% of those employed in the EU were EU citizens from
    another Member State. This is lower than the figure for architects (6.5%), but higher than for accounting activities (3.2%), real estate activities (2.8%), civil engineering (2.3%) and legal activities
    (1.6%).”

    From :-EUROPEAN SEMESTER THEMATIC FACTSHEET
    SERVICES MARKETS

  3. COLIN
    TW
    Yes-he seems to be saying I can come & talk to you on 21 Nov because we will have concluded a deal by then !!

    Seems more like, ‘I will talk to you when I have done a deal and not before’

  4. Colin

    ““In the case of regulated professions, professionals from other Member States may have to go through the recognition process. This often requires paying substantial fees and can be timeconsuming and cumbersome.”

    Just as an aside, that is also the case for (at least) doctors and dentists in the USA who wish to practice in another State.

  5. Turk (or anyone else in the USA)

    Being reported in USA that “The latest numbers from Georgia and Texas show that early voting by 18-29 year-old voters is up a staggering 500% over 2014!”

    I’m presuming that more of those young folk will be voting Democrat rather than Republican. Is that presumption a reasonable one?

  6. OLDNAT

    Thanks-interesting.

    I think the truth is that trading in Services can be more difficult & complex to regulate than trading in Goods.

    Even defining the service, particularly in the fast changing Digital Sector may not lend itself to easy agreement between trading partners.

  7. NEILJ

    Sky just reported Government Spokesperson rowing back on any idea a deal will be concluded by Nov. 21.

    Wouldn’t you know it ? !!

  8. @COLIN
    Sky just reported Government Spokesperson rowing back on any idea a deal will be concluded by Nov. 21.
    Wouldn’t you know it ? !!

    Shocker:-)

  9. ON

    Re the US mid-terms – my hope is that the Republicans do very badly, blame it on Trump and then – astonishingly – start to notice what a hideous person he is and being to reduce their support for him accordingly.

    A sort of virtuous cycle in which they all end up stuffed.

  10. Colin

    The same need to requalify for the appropriate legal jurisdiction also applies to lawyers within the UK.

  11. @ Old Nat

    I just happened on the site at the time of your first reply and thought bit snooty… Came back now and seen your follow up so you are forgiven!

    I can see your argument now (the way politics is conducted I guess), I wouldn’t really know unless I was in Scotland- sometimes, certainly in parliament, that appears to be the case, although during the independence referendum it seemed like rational debate was lacking (Project fear etc) just like the UK-wide one. I know it was a yes/no thing rather than we’ll do this and then do that, but it is only a small leap really.

  12. Shevii

    Thanks. It was an embarrassing point at which to mistakenly hit the Submit button. Had that first post of mine stood alone, “snooty” would have been an understatement!

  13. @ R&D

    Fingers crossed although it really does seem too close to call.

    Based on the Real Clear Politics polling site Democrats look to have the better of the House of Representatives but not in the bag at all.

    The senate actually doesn’t look that great for the Democrats with RCP already suggesting the likelihood of 50 Republicans out of the 100 seats, although most are not up anyway, but only two more from the 6 “toss ups” and they are as you were.

    I have this same feeling as when Trump first got elected that with everything that had gone on and him still being in the fight it may not end well, but maybe Pollsters will miss the youth factor and get out to vote like in 2017 here.

  14. @alec

    Yes, the point about the OECD study and its irrelevance to the EU internal market in services is so obvious it is difficult to think it needs explaining. The Brexiter response was not slow in coming from @colin ( essentially, the EU internal services market is not complete so it doesn’t exist and in any case “EU bad” for not being perfect).

    The irony is thst the liberalisation of the EU internal services market is a major achievement of the UK in the EU. But again Brexiters cannot acknowledge any successful role for the UK in shaping the EU.

  15. @Colin

    The deal has been sewn up for weeks.

    Just arguing over the cake presentation, lots of Downing St Fudge and Brussels Chocolate to adorn the whole thing.

  16. @R&D

    “Re the US mid-terms – my hope is that the Republicans do very badly, blame it on Trump and then – astonishingly – start to notice what a hideous person he is and being to reduce their support for him accordingly.

    A sort of virtuous cycle in which they all end up stuffed.”

    That would indeed be nice, but don’t bet your house on it being so. The latest polls show most of the races closer than one might expect for a mid-term set of Congressional elections where it is normal for the party of the incumbent President to get a bit of a pasting. Trump is pulling out all the stops to make the election about immigration, citing the caravan of dark-skinned people coming up through Central America as some sort of security threat, and this appears to be doing the trick and firing up his base. The good money appears to be on it being a two-faced Congressional battle with the Democrats taking the House of Representatives but the Republicans holding on in the Senate, and maybe even making some gains. This is down to regional factors I’m thinking, with Democratic senators facing difficulties in some states where Trump is proving popular. In the House, it looks better for Democrats against Republicans in a lot of the races where states are tight and could change hands. Don’t expect a blue tide though, unless of course, as OldNat seems to be suggesting, there is going to be a larger overall turnout than usual and some differential demographic turnouts contained within that. For example if, as some have predicted, the young and women voters turn up at the polling booths, then the Republicans might well be in more trouble than the general polls are suggesting. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that this might transpire on the day.

    Of course, don’t rule out Trump trying to invalidate the results if they look bad for him. Voter fraud was his alibi when he lost the popular vote to Clinton by 3 million votes in 2016 and I’m sure he’ll spin something similar for these current elections. Remember, this was the Presidential candidate who said that he wouldn’t necessarily accept the outcome of the 2016 Presidential election if he lost.

    I thought this was an interesting look at the darker forces that may be at play behind Trump’s oafish and semi-comic mask. It’s written by Timothy Snyder, the Levin Professor of History at Yale University. He is the author of several books on European history as well as, most recently, “On Tyranny and The Road to Unfreedom”. Scary, scary reading: –

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/30/trump-borrows-tricks-of-fascism-pittsburgh

  17. @alec

    By the way, you should add an”open seas” and “significantly open roads” policy to your list of EU services liberalisation given the EU approach to cabotage in maritime and road freight.

  18. The hostile environment strikes again:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/31/home-office-tells-northern-irish-woman-to-prove-right-to-live-in-belfast?__twitter_impression=true

    This example also raises issues as to whether the CTA and the Belfast Agreement provisions on Irish and British citizenship can survive a no deal Brexit ( or perhaps even a hard Brexit).

  19. @Oldnat

    Why not? The Republic is well placed to do well from Brexit provided Brussels do not get over zealous and spiteful of financial services.

    Tit for tat will not help anyone.

  20. Jones in Bangor

    I wasn’t making any judgments about it. Just reporting a story.

    Makes a lot of sense for EU business to be done within the EU, though.

    I don’t understand the “tit for tat” comment.

  21. jonesinbangor,
    “The deal has been sewn up for weeks. ”

    There has been a longstanding campaign to try to blame the government’s inability to form a negotiating position on the europeans. The UK line at the moment seems to be to say it is 95% done, so a deal is in the bag. Its obviously official spin, because I have heard so many different people repeating it.

    Perhaps the idea is to suggest the givernment has settled nearly everything, and then those nasty europeans refused a teeny tiny compromise which would have got it over the line. Except the tiny compromise would have been to do what the europeans have always stated they never could do, so that any UK deal based upon their doing the impossible was pretty much chosen by our side because it would fail.

    So no, government spin it is a done deal is juts as likely because they see a final brick wall lined with can catchers just ahead.

  22. @ DANNY

    It’s called compromise. Negotiators appointed by opposing sides = optimism, misunderstanding, conflict, anger, bluster = reality = Brexit.

    Less than 150 days now!

  23. This is a link to a thread listing paramilitary activity in Northern Ireland in the past two years:

    https://twitter.com/SNevin1/status/967080323099123712?s=19

    Sobering reading given the cavalier attitude of Brexiters to the GFA and Irish issues generally.

  24. @jonesinbangor

    Given the Tanaiste’s comments tonight it doesn’t look like a deal has been agreed!

  25. ON
    Good stuff about tidal power. I never understood why that and wave power was never pushed more. It’s so much more reliable than wind. I remember seeing a demo of wave power on Tomorrows World in the 1960s, and the French have had the River Rance project since about that time. As we’re surrounded by sea it seems blindingly obvious. Perhaps it was because they were waiting for decent power storage. I note that one of the schemes uses Tesla Powerpacks.

  26. No news from SoCalLiberal yet I see.
    I noticed back in the 90s that the BBC ALWAYS called the US elections wrong, tending to overstate the Elephant and understate the Mule. I like the sound of what ON is saying about a big ‘hidden’ turn out by young folks. There was some superb targeted advertising comically pointing up the fact that old republicans ALWAYS vote.

  27. Hireton

    Nardelli also reporting pessimism on the EU side that the UK is capable of producing a solution.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-eu-says-answers-from-the-uk-on-these-crucial-brexit

  28. I gave a link in an earlier post to an article by Timothy Snyder and I’ve recently been reading his book “On Tyranny and the Road to Unfreedom.” It’s a superb and salutary read and contains some absolute gems. Here’s one:-

    “You submit to tyranny when you renounce the difference between what you want to hear and what is actually the case.”

    That’s a zinger, isn’t it? Made me think hard about myself too.

    And what about this observation that he makes about the difference between nationalism and patriotism, citing Trump as an example.: –

    “The president is a nationalist, which is not at all the same thing as a patriot. A nationalist encourages us to be our worst, and then tells us that we are the best. A nationalist, “although endlessly brooding on power, victory, defeat, revenge,” wrote Orwell, tends to be “uninterested in what happens in the real world.” Nationalism is relativist, since the only truth is the resentment we feel when we contemplate others. As the novelist Danilo Kiš put it, nationalism “has no universal values, aesthetic or ethical.” A patriot, by contrast, wants the nation to live up to its ideals, which means asking us to be our best selves. A patriot must be concerned with the real world, which is the only place where his country can be loved and sustained. A patriot has universal values, standards by which he judges his nation, always wishing it well—and wishing that it would do better.”

    Reading that actually gave me goosebumps. Snyder’s book really is a magnificent piece of work and I highly commend it. Frighteningly, I think it’s very current, both of and for our times.

  29. CB11

    I haven’t read Snyder’s book, and certainly won’t if that bit of illogical twaddle that you quote, and think of as a “gem” is anything to go by!

    Defining words to suit your prejudices, and providing no supporting arguments for your random allocation of values to them is weak, intellectually poor and of dubious value.

    Had Trump described himself as “a patriot”, he might equally well (or rather badly) said –

    “The president is a patriot, which is not at all the same thing as a nationalist . A patriot encourages us to be our worst, and then tells us that we are the best. A patriot, places himself in “the last refuge of the scoundrel” said Johnson. Patriotism is relativist, since the only truth is the resentment we feel when we contemplate others. Patriotism “has no universal values, aesthetic or ethical” A nationalist, by contrast, wants the nation to live up to its ideals, which means asking us to be our best selves. A nationalist must be concerned with the real world, which is the only place where his country can be loved and sustained. A nationalist has universal values, standards by which he judges his nation, always wishing it well—and wishing that it would do better.”

    That would be just as much rubbish as what Snyder did write – and just as much of a “gem”.

  30. @OldNat

    What, you mean as intellectually poor and weak as taking a piece of original text and substituting words here and there to suit your own prejudices? Quoting Johnson’s hoary old cliche, now mindlessly recited rather like a tired Christmas Cracker epithet, is pretty poor stuff too. Is this what is now passing for rapier wit these days? Your powers are fading fast, I fear

    Snyder’s words have obviously struck a raw nerve with you, which is interesting, but I hadn’t really thought about Scottish Nationalism at all when I read this contrast between nationalism and patriotism. I don’t think Snyder had an independence movement in his sights really when he spoke about fascism and the sort of nationalism that rattles sabres, encourages hatred of others and subverts democracy, free speech and liberty. I was thinking, like Snyder, about the sort of nationalism that Bolonsaro, Silvino, Putin, Orban and even Trump are peddling. The sort that destroyed Europe too in the 1930s and 40s. I’m fairly sure, although I really should let Snyder speak for himself, that neither of us had Nicola Sturgeon and her followers in mind when we were talking about nationalism in this context.

    You’re starting to exhibit paranoid tendencies which probably suggests it’s time for bed.

  31. CB11

    The point of the substitution was simply that reversing the terms made as little sense as in the original.

    Still it’s interesting that you didn’t “think hard [enough] about myself too” in response to his “You submit to tyranny when you renounce the difference between what you want to hear and what is actually the case.”

    For Snyder to quote Orwell’s “hoary old cliche, now mindlessly recited rather like a tired Christmas Cracker epithet, is pretty poor stuff too.”

    I’ll happily grant that neither Snyder or you were thinking clearly about what “nationalism” or “patriotism” mean in different contexts, but prefer to limit thinking to narrow contexts, where words mean what you want them to mean.

    Contextualising terminology means that terms can be used appropriately to different situations.

    Adopting blanket sets of “universal values” and attaching them to particular terms is shoddy thinking – and you’re right, that kind of weak minded sophistry does strike “a raw nerve” with me.

    I might add that, even within the narrow limits of Snyder’s imagination, you don’t offer any justification for his accolade to patriotism. In both America and 30s/40s Europe that could produce just as much evil as other “isms”.

  32. @Oldnat

    As someone who respects your trenchant views and the forceful way you express them, I was appalled by the sneering tone you felt appropriate when responding to CB.

    There is an interesting discussion to be had on the quotes CB provided, but I am not impressed when someone who hasn’t read a book, but only seen two short quotes from it, attempts a massive put-down (“twaddle”) of another poster’s sincere enthusiasm, which was based on the rather more secure foundation of reading and considering the whole book.

    Especially when that dismissal sees to be based on knee-jerk sensitivity to use of the word ‘nationalism’ as shorthand for jingoistic support of an existing state, rather than your seemingly preferred meaning of “the noble aspiration towards independence of a subject people.”

    You may well object to the words “nationalism” and “patriotism” being used to describe the opposites of aggressive my-country-right-or-wrong hostiity to other people; and of a positive love of one’s country and wish for it to be as good as it can be in what it achieves for its people and the wider world.

    But you can surely accept that such distinctions exist. To dismiss a book, and the enthusiasm of someone who’s read it, based on the words chosen to represent those concepts is to do so on the basis of semantics, and to reveal a nasty streak of intellectual bullying.

    Or perhaps I’ve got it wrong, and you really do identify Scottish nationalism with the varieties espoused by the Orbans, Salvinis and Trumps of this world, or the European dictators of (thankfully) that other world of the past.

    (Incidentally, I’m well aware that to cross swords with you is to jump into the lion’s den, and that you see what you wrote as harmless intellectual jousting. Your instinctive reaction will be to attempt a scornful, massively patronising response. Ding-ding, round two. But I didn’t write this rejoinder for a bit of fun, but in defence of maintaining decent standards of discourse and respect for your fellow posters. I expected better of you.)

  33. @Hireton – indeed. Transport across the EU is heavily integrated. Also, the GDPR directives are very significant. Cross border data is far more significant than @Colin realises for open services. Health care training – that’s another one.

    As you say, denial based on the internal services market not being as complete as the goods market isn’t a viable approach. It’s still the most open inernal market in services anywhere in the world, as @Colin’s own links suggest.

  34. With respect to the US elections one of the challenges facing pollsters will be weighting by age and ethnic background; there will obviously be an argument for using previous midterms or 2016 as a base but there are suggestions that younger voters and black voters (but not necessarily Latino voters) may well turn out at levels normally seen in Presidential elections. However whilst they remain suggestions rather than evidenced Pollsters are going to have to engage in educated guesswork one way or the other. In this sense I find it hard to believe they won’t get some things badly wrong although which way is very hard to tell.

    apologies for a polling related post

  35. OldNat

    That piece you linked to:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-eu-says-answers-from-the-uk-on-these-crucial-brexit

    .. is interesting because (a) it shows the EU seems to be actively trying to break the NI deadlock by coming up with proposals, and (b) it shows that there is some discord between the harder French attitudes on Brexit and those of others in the EU side.

    Strikes me a deal is likelier than not. The fact that the EU is prepared to move – even a bit – says a lot. They clearly do want a deal, and they seem to understand that May’s options are so restricted by the political reality in parliament that they on the EU side need to show flexibility in order to progress.

  36. I don’t regard what OLDNAT said as being “pass remarkable”.

    “You submit to tyranny when you renounce the difference between what you want to hear and what is actually the case.” What does this mean? Has it any meaning?

    Apply it to the language of Orwell quoted in Crossbat’s post.

    “A nationalist, although endlessly brooding on power, victory, defeat, revenge,” wrote Orwell, tends to be “uninterested in what happens in the real world.”

    Here, according to Snyder, Orwell is saying what he wants to hear and not what is actually the case. There is more than one kind of nationalism. It is not just of the kind that Orwell describes. According to Snyder, Orwell would seem to be submitting to tyranny.

    Crossbat adds this observation, “Nationalism is relativist, since the only truth is the resentment we feel when we contemplate others..” Crossbat also seems to be submitting to tyranny. Not all nationalism is relativist. Crossbat also seems to be contradicting Orwell when he claims with regard to nationalism that “the only truth is the resentment we feel when we contemplate others.” According to Orwell nationalists are “uninterested in what happens in the real world”.

  37. ALEC

    @” It’s still the most open inernal market in services anywhere in the world, as @Colin’s own links suggest.”

    If you insist on this Alec-prove it with data that supports your statement.

    None that I have provided do so.

    And while you are searching you might like to explain why , in “the most open internal market for services anywhere in the world”, intra EU trade in Services represents around 7% of GDP *, whilst the Services sector represents 73% of EU GDP ** ?

    You might like to explain why the degree of openness to intra bloc trade in Services is so much less than that for trade in Goods & so widespread-as shown in this EU “Single Market Scoreboard”.

    http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/scoreboard/integration_market_openness/trade_goods_services/index_en.htm

    I would also be interested to know why you think there is such a massive & consistent disparity on the Services openness scoreboards between Luxembourg, Malta & Ireland-and the other countries ?

    *Intra-Eu Trade in Services-OECD Library-2015 data
    ** Economy of the European Union-Wki-2014 data

  38. Thanks to everyone posting about the US midterms – it’s hard to find good coverage on the UK MSM.

    I’m wondering why everyone is so relaxed about the Trevors. At the very least these people have been dish0nest. And they have clogged up the site with endless partisan factoids and bilge that, with less acute posters, might have gone unchallenged. They make me paranoid and generally distrustful of social media. (perhaps that’s a good thing). I don’t mind what opinions people have, but what the Trevors have done is really not okay.

  39. ALEC

    No one disputes the objectives of the EU Single Market-certainly not me.

    But simply parroting its virtues does not inform on the facts.

    And the facts are that it isn’t working as you seem to fondly imagine ( or wish)

    In this FT article :-

    https://www.ft.com/content/64bf972c-a2b4-11e7-8d56-98a09be71849

    I highlight this comment :-

    “Attempts to calculate the overall benefits of the single market have ended up in uncertainty and less than spectacular results. A report published by the Bruegel think-tank in 2015 concluded that while the single market had most probably increased GDP, the effect had been muted by remaining barriers in the EU, particularly in the service sector, and a failure of national governments to put in place complementary policies to enable their companies to seize the opportunities available.”

    Alan Beattie’s piece links to this Breugel Group study from 2015.

    http://bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/imported/publications/WP_2015_01_final__160315.pdf

    I suggest you read it and its conclusions. You might then gain a more rounded view of a structure which is as beset as all the other structures of the European Union , by that organisation’s central and abiding tension- between the disparate interests of Sovereign Nation Member States , and the ideals of the Integrated Union.

    The political landscape of the EU has moved on since that Breugel study-but having read its conclusions I am struck at how prescient they were.

    Until the EU decides for once & for all what the balance is between Nation State & The Union , the high ideals of its institutions-including The Single Market , will continue to be frustrated.

  40. Patrickbrian,
    “I’m wondering why everyone is so relaxed about the Trevors.”

    Maybe because everyone here is more than average politically engaged, and severeal must be actively working for on side or another?

    Apart from that, everyone probably feels it helps test their own view when someone is strongly pushing a different one. Just gets a bit wearing when it descends to polemic.

    We are doomed…doooomed…doooooomed Brexit will destroy the Uk, destroy the uk political parties if they arent very careful. We will have crashing house prices, bankruptices, food rationing, huge unemployment, power cuts, visits to the IMF and the dead going unburied. The Russians will seize the Scottish islands and take the oil. All british industry will move to China and we will start recycling their plastic waste.

    Ah. That feels so much better.

  41. More “blinking” on services from EC as they accept Enhanced/Expanded Equivalence.

    As the clock ticks down we see they have worked out that the survival of the political project might be trickier if they have another financial crisis by cutting themselves of from UK services!

    All “provisional” of course but since Dombrovskis has already stated that they want to cherry pick UK services in a “no deal” scenario then the amicable mini-deal “no deal” (Association Agreement) route is looking more appealing by the day.

    1/ Services for Security “trade+” deal (both of which are good for EU) in return for a
    2/ TFA (Trade Facilitation Agreement) that keeps NTBs and “friction” as close as possible to previous arrangements – again which is net good for EU
    3/ Unilateral approach to sorting out TRQs with rWorld
    4/ Divorce Bill? Certainly attach timings and triggers to payments

    Min Deal is better than No Deal and No Deal is better than a Bad Deal = Min Deal is much better than a Bad Deal

  42. NO deal was always min deal in reality of course.

  43. NO deal was always min deal in reality of course.

  44. PATRICKBRIAN

    I agree about the Trevors. It is an abuse of the blog. They are also taking the p1ss out of people with repeated challenges of facts. Hireton gave good advice – ignore them.

  45. On the Trevors, an aspect we haven`t considered is when the multiplicity began.

    Maybe Trevor 1 with his undoubted enthusiasm co-opted like-minded friends to share the load and cover for his absences.

    Maybe he sold himself to a group of funders to preach their views, and they paid by the column-inch. So he was tempted into a business enterprise.

    There are surely ways of stopping multiple postings from sources that give the same visible post name, but meantime I personally don`t feel we have been hindered too much by the multiplication. If others try it, then action is needed.

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