Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor poll for the Standard was published yesterday. Topline voting intentions were CON 39%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%. The two point lead is unchanged from MORI’s previous poll in September, and are very much in line with the other recent voting intention polls since my last update. YouGov and Kantar polls last week both showed 5 point Conservative leads, a Survation poll a one point Tory lead.

While voting intention polls continue to show a small Tory lead, the underlying figures remain poor. People don’t rate the government or the Prime Minister (net satisfaction for the government is minus 48, for Theresa May it’s minus 32), economic optimism is low (61% expect the general economic condition of the country to get worse over the next year) and confidence in May’s ability to get a good Brexit deal continues to trickle downwards, this latest poll has 19% saying they are confident, 78% saying they are not.

Full tabs for the MORI poll are here.


797 Responses to “Ipsos-MORI/Standard – CON 39, LAB 37, LDEM 10”

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  1. Tory lead appears to be increasing since the Summer. I am amazed.

  2. There’s nothing particularly important about these ‘deal’, numbers.

    So what if people lack confidence in Mrs May’s ability to achieve the unachievable?

    And in any case there are large numbers who will regard ANY ‘deal’ she comes back with as a bad one, and large numbers of others who don’t want any ‘deal’ at all.

    So by definition they will count as lacking confidence.

    But none of this affects whether they regard Mrs May as the best Prime Minister available.

    Another interesting finding in thus poll that 50% of people think leaving the EU will make their standard of living better or leave it unchanged, whilst only 43% say it will make it worse.

    This would appear to refute the panic mongering Remainers keep spreading.

    So why would people be clamouring for a ‘People’s Vote’ to overturn a Referendum result which they think makes their lives either better or no different?

    The poll also investigated who the public thinks is to blame (sic) if Britain and the EU do not reach a deal.

    The public says UK Government (36%), the EU (37%) and Conservative MPs (37%).

    A third (32%) also blame Brexit campaigners (compared with 14% blaming Remain campaigners) while 16% blame the Labour Party and 10% other opposition parties.

    But again these figures are hopelessly misleading because the use of the term ‘blame’ pre supposes that the respondent thinks leaving with No Deal is bad thing.

    Perhaps this woeful bias in framing the questions arises because George Osborne is Editor of the Standard.

  3. Why is Andrew Myers ‘amazed’?

    Others too say they are ‘amazed;’.but I fear that in their cases it’s all more to do with lack of scientific objectivity than anything else.

    People are forever ‘amazed’ at how well conservative and populist parties do in elections, referenda, and polls.

    It’s a phenomenon which leads ‘liberals’ and Remainers to become so enraged and embittered when they lose.

  4. “Tory lead appears to be increasing since the Summer. I am amazed.”

    I’m not.

    It’s not as if the tory VI is actually going up, this is simply labour vote dispersing a little back to DK and other preferred options.

    Should any election actually happen I’d expect any such tory lead to evaporate fairly rapidly as the realities of FPTP forces the more remain minded voters, along with the ABTs to vote labour in a number of places where they’d rather vote someone else.

  5. “And in any case there are large numbers who will regard ANY ‘deal’ she comes back with as a bad one, and large numbers of others who don’t want any ‘deal’ at all.

    So by definition they will count as lacking confidence.”

    ——-

    Well that’s an explanation for the figures, not a reason to disregard them.

  6. @EOTW

    That is very interesting, seems to indicate that opinion on brexit had solidified a little less strongly than I’d thought.

    My impression was that, given it is clear that many of the mutually exclusive promises of brexit have now evaporated (e.g. retaining equivalent market access is out, leading leave campaigners conceding that there will be short term economic damage) that there would have been a pretty big shift, particularly in their identified ‘lexiter’ camp.

    May well be that most of these are still believing the impossible is possible? Or probably aren’t paying any attention at all.

    The ‘sovereignty conservatives’ are a rather curious group too. Their 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th priorities would typically be considered to be aided by leaving and yet they voted remain and mostly would continue to do so.

  7. Good afternoon all from a breezy and grey Edinburgh.

    Lovely drive up to ol Caledonia yesterday (work related of course) and did miss my first class choo-choo travel…….. maybe next time.

    Ok…moving on.

    ” confidence in May’s ability to get a good Brexit deal continues to trickle downwards, this latest poll has 19% saying they are confident, 78% saying they are not”
    _____________

    I’m surprised those saying they are confident of a good Brexit deal is as high as 19%. The EU have made it their mission and even their very existence to make it as difficult for disgruntled member states to leave the authoritarian regime in Brussels.

    They have said it themselves that any favorable deal for the UK may encourage other member states to bolt.

    Obscure Eastern European states only hang onto the EU apron-strings because of all the freebies they receive and plus it benefits their economies to swamp labour markets such as the UK’s with cheap migrant workers who send parts of their earnings back home but even old Europe is wobbling with discontent towards Junk & Tuk.

    It’s going to take a huge lurch to the right by France and Germany to finally make the EU stand up and reform and when that happens the Mollycoddling Liberal elite will be asking…Why?

    Talking of Liberals and Lurch…I see the Lib/Dems have manged to shuffle into double figures. At 10% ol Lurches curtains might begin to twitch.

    BTW…The hotel I’m staying at tonight is a stones throw away from the Russian consulate on Melville St and right across the road sits St Mary’s Cathedral. Hmmm!!

  8. I don’t know if anyone is better informed than me but given my (cursory) exploration of the UK Government contingency planning documents for a no deal scenario I cannot see any provision for rationing. It seems to me in circumstances where much of the basket of goods that is used to measure the CPI will be (even on optimistic forecasts) in short supply for a period there is a significant danger of runaway inflation for which there ought to be some contingency in place.

  9. Andrew Myers,
    “Tory lead appears to be increasing since the Summer. I am amazed.”

    I’m not at all. The turnout for both main parties at the last elections was massively boosted by voters dividing on brexit for and against.

    While May has not covered herself in glory over Brexit, at least she is moving forward with the alacrity of treacle on a cold day.

    Whereas Labour seems as keen on remaining in the EU as, er, nigel farage on an off day.

    Of the two May seems to be pleasing her supporters more, and hence she has a modest lead.

    However, what has changed since the time the last election was called? if there was a ballot, the result would depend on the stance of the two parties over brexit, and could swing as wildly from the current position as it did at the last election.

    The biggst differencein predicton now from then, is we have a recent precedent for massive unsignalled swings.

  10. @RONALD OLDEN
    ‘Another interesting finding in thus poll that 50% of people think leaving the EU will make their standard of living better or leave it unchanged, whilst only 43% say it will make it worse.
    This would appear to refute the panic mongering Remainers keep spreading.
    So why would people be clamouring for a ‘People’s Vote’ to overturn a Referendum result which they think makes their lives either better or no different?’

    While what you say is not a lie it is a little disingenuous. This is what is actually written in the Ipsos Mori report

    ‘Britons have also become slightly more negative about the impact Brexit will have on their own standard of living over the last 12 months. Eighteen percent think it will make their standard of living better (down 2 points from last October) while 43% think it will be worse (up 7 points) – a third (32%) say it will make no difference.’

    You could have said 75% think their standard of living would be worse or no better with only 18% thinking it will be better, down 2%.
    Also worth noting that peoples have become more negative about the likely effect with now ‘43% think it will be worse (up 7 points)’

  11. @JAMESB

    May well be that most of these are still believing the impossible is possible? Or probably aren’t paying any attention at all.

    Sounds about right.

  12. On a completely different topic why does everyone keep referring to the Institute of Fiscal Studies as non-partisan? In the party political sense this is true, but in terms of economic theory it is not.
    The IFS appears to consider that Keynsian theory (even in its adapted modern form) is wrong and that classical economics as updated (ne0liberalism to some) is correct. They seem to apply the latter theoretical framework in all the analysis of data they carry out.
    In circumstances where the Labour Party has reverted to a Keynsianist theory in its economic analysis and the Conservative Party holds on to the classical theory surely that is partisan, even if by the back door.

  13. WB61
    I don’t know if anyone is better informed than me but given my (cursory) exploration of the UK Government contingency planning documents for a no deal scenario I cannot see any provision for rationing.
    _____________________

    When we leave the EU the only rationing I can think of will be the rationing of handkerchiefs due to all the wailing.

  14. @EOTW @JAMESB

    “May well be that most of these are still believing the impossible is possible? Or probably aren’t paying any attention at all.

    Sounds about right.”

    Lewis Carrol might have the answer!

    “Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.”

    “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”

  15. TREVBOT reminds me of the WAAMA (Writers, Actors, Artists, Musicians Association) created by Sir Myles Na Gopaleen who wrote a column in the Irish Times when not appearing in Dublin District Court.

    The WAAMA provides a service to theatregoers. The idea for WAAMA came to his eminence when he overheard snatches of conversation at the theatre during the interval. “Pity unfortunate wife”, “who asked him” and “believe he was born in Manchester” were the kind of remarks made.

    WAAMA provides ventriloquists, suitably attired, as escorts for events. This is how the wonderful old man saw it. “You go. You meet him. He advances toward you, smiling: “I trust I have not kept you waiting, lady Charlotte.”
    You reply. “Not at all Count. And what a night it is for Ibsen. One is in the mood, somehow. Yet a translation can never be quite the same. Do you remember that night… in Stockhom….long ago?””

    Of course, there is a difference between WAAMA and TREVBOT. In WAAMA it is one voice, that of the trained ventriloquist, who is making such conversational brilliance and sparkle. In TREVOT there are competing voices. Nothing is ever coherent.

    Alas for the noble old man. The ventriloquists took to blackmailing their clients. And if the client resisted he or she soon found that she/he was being accused of insulting a neighbour in the most ghastly fashion. Eventually, blows were struck. Frightened theatregoers took to carrying cards and presenting them to all they encountered. A typical card might say, “I’M A TRAIN DRIVER. I HAVEN’T OPENED MY GUB THE WHOLE NIGHT”.

    Incidentally, do train drivers wish to be small boys?

    TREVBOT is what happened to the WAAMA League. A mighty murmur of discordant voices from people who want to frighten you take your money.

    The WAAMA League provides a book handling service. I might tell you about that later – if you’re bad

  16. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “When we leave the EU the only rationing I can think of will be the rationing of handkerchiefs due to all the wailing.”

    I take it from that response that you believe there would be no economic effects from a no deal Brexit. If so what is the problem with having a contingency in place? If you are wrong rationing is a sensible response to shortages to avoid inflation (the Weimar problem) and if you are right the existence of the contingency would have no effect. The planning is, after all, an attempt to ameliorate any problems. If you are wrong, without such contingencies, the economic consequences could have us begging to rejoin the EU tout suite on much worse terms than we currently enjoy!

  17. @Allan Christie

    “When we leave the EU the only rationing I can think of will be the rationing of handkerchiefs due to all the wailing.”

    I’m glad I re-read this. When I glanced at it the first time and saw the mention of handkerchiefs and a word starting with the letters “wa” and ending in a “ing”, for one very shocked moment I thought you were referring to another, rather more ignoble, activity that occasionally involves handkerchiefs.

    Of course, the more I thought about it, the more it occurred to me that, when we do exit the EU, people like Rees Mogg, Farage, Gove and Johnson may well do rather a lot of what I originally thought you’d said.

    Well they are inveterate t*ssers after all!

    :-)

  18. “You could have said 75% think their standard of living would be worse or no better with only 18% thinking it will be better, down 2%.”

    Lies Damn Lies and Statistics

  19. Well, while Alan has been enjoying the views staying in a nice hotel in Edinburgh, and Trevor has been moaning about having to subsidise the temporary Scottish budget deficit of 7.9%, those of us living here have been battling the actual costs of ordinary life.

    I was considering buying a light, medium-size chair this morning, attracted by its advertised price of £42, but when I started the ordering process I found the price became £167. After beavering around on the web site, putting various postal codes in, and trying to interpret a tiny map, I have concluded that they place the Aberdeen post-code area, like most of Scotland, as being in the Highlands.

    This is deliberately misleading to tempt people who never class themselves as being in the Highlands, into ordering and then make a big profit from them. If the furniture company used Parcelforce to deliver, the charge would be at least half the £125 they are seeking.

    Why does this Midland firm behave so outrageously, I wonder. Are they spurred on by messages like Trevor`s into thinking that they are being taken advantage of by Scots, so will get revenge?

    For Trevor and pals, I would comment that the 2017-18 deficit resulted from a Brent oil price averaging rather less than 60$ a barrel, but it`s now $76 and likely to average around that for 2018-19. By the time you gang get Barnett repealed, it`s likely that Scotland will again be subsidising England.

  20. Just had a look at some of the detail behind this latest Ipsos/Mori poll, particularly relating to the confidence, or lack of it, that voters have in May and her government being able to negotiate a good Brexit outcome. If you combine this with the voters low approval of May as a PM (Corbyn improving a little, I see), their overall dissatisfaction with the government generally and the pessimism voters have about their economic prospects, it is surprising to see the Tories with a 2% lead, I have to say. Granted, this is the same lead as they enjoyed in September, and it is in line with most of the other polls which are pointing to little change in VI ratings and leads over the last month or so, but current VI does appear to be unusually out of kilter with the orthodox and classic voting determinants. In more typical times, incumbent governments with these atrocious polling figures would be lagging at least 10% behind in the polls.

    However, before I start sounding like Andrew Neil (if I do, you have permission to shoot me), these are about as far from typical political and electoral times as I can recall in my 50 plus years of being interested and involved in politics. Accordingly, amongst all this Brexit related chaos and detritus, I think asking anybody how they might vote if there was a general election tomorrow is as likely to produce as meaningful an answer as asking them what they’d like to eat for supper just as their house is being inundated by a deluge.

    In other words, you haven’t got their full attention and they have other rather more pressing priorities!

  21. @JAMESB
    May well be that most of these are still believing the impossible is possible? Or probably aren’t paying any attention at all.

    I’d like to float the third possibility that a lot haven’t shifted as they never believed the impossible to be possible in the first place.

    On the whole the stock of politicians is low and the electorate is a sight less credulous than it’s sometimes presented.

    So when one bombasitc buffon paints a number on his battle bus, few will be shockeed that the number turns out to be dodgy.

    And when another bombasitc buffon promises an immediate withdrawal and an emergency budget, I don’t think it would shock many either that he beggars off instead.

    We know politicians’ election time promises are a mixture of things they couldn’t do even if they wanted, things they don’t really want to do, things they want to do but won’t be able, and somewhere, aminority of a minority, things they might deliver on. The revelation is hardly new.

  22. There’s a new logic in politics now; In the US liberal politicians, media outlets and public figures get sent bombs, and the president publicly blames liberal politicians, media outlets and public figures for arousing the vitriol and anger behind the bomber(s).

    Coming from a president so steep in vitriol and anger, who has openly mocked disabled people and ethnic groups, grabbed pussy and verbally insulted multiple women, accused his political opponents of criminality and of being unpatriotic, encouraged aggressive campaigns against individual journalists and media organisations, and l!ed openly on an almost daily basis, this is pretty breathtaking stuff.

    A clear pattern is emerging though, and we see it increasingly here as well. Tommy Robinson is now a minor international celebrity, being paid £8,000 a month to spread l!es and racial hatred – yet he is touted as the victim of concerted acts of oppression by the state and ‘the elites’.

    Despite devastating evidence gathered over centuries regarding rape and sexual violence against women, gender pay gaps and multiple examples of sex discrimination favouring men, somehow men are now the victims.

    Even on UKPR we sadly occasionally see a similar pattern: posters come on and write insulting statements about others, claim that this is OK because it’s what they think, and then pretend that they are the ones being abused.

    It’s a well trodden path, but when it ends up being used as some kind of justification for why people are sending bombs to their opponents – that’s a bit of a wow moment for the world.

    Normal democratic norms are under assault in a way not seen since the 1930s. It’s dangerous, and a real threat to society. I don’t believe the UK is immune to this, and I don’t know how we stop this.

  23. Highly dubious poll from Global Britain but FWIW

    (With biased wording) Chequers gets virtually no support whatsover. Best to avoid the questions after “further information was provided” as we don’t know what the “information” was but the initial question:

    Preferred option for UK’s future relationship with EU

    Canada+ 26
    WTO 24
    No Deal [1] 17
    2nd ref 15
    EEA/EFTA 11
    Chequers 6

    Top three combined represent “Clean Brexit” = 67%

    Page 4 asks a “hypothetical” GE scenario and that is always a little dodgy but it does show the obvious issue of CON needing to avoid the return of UKIP.

    Clean Brexit (WTO, Canada+ or No Deal)
    CON 43-45
    LAB 32-33
    (ie CON have a 10pt+ lead and would win a comfortable majority – the GE we should have had in 2017!!)

    2nd Ref
    CON 32
    LAB 34
    UKIP 8
    (LAB 2pt lead)

    Remaining in EU
    CON 30
    LAB 35
    UKIP 10
    (LAB 5pt lead)

    DKs tend to rise as they list out the options but what is weird is that CON+UKIP range from 48 to 40?!?
    (ie it’s not just CON moving to UKIP in the Chequers or worse scenarios)

    Anyway, very clear that CON have to deliver a Clean Brexit if they want any chance of winning a majority in a GE.

    [1] Unclear why they put “no deal” in given that refers more to the WA than the future relationship. WTO is the default follow from from “no deal” on WA so I see this as an attempt to upward bias the ‘Clean Brexit’ score.

  24. WB61
    RATIONING
    Other than the U.K. becoming North Korea overnight, in what scenario could it ever be easier,quicker or cheaper to impliment nationwide rationing than to find a way to clear imports through customs?
    If nothing is in place on day one, (or there’s a bit of a queue forming), why not just temporarily waive everything through in good faith? (Which is the current system after all).

  25. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “When we leave the EU the only rationing I can think of will be the rationing of handkerchiefs due to all the wailing.”

    So I can safely assume that Allan knows better than the NFU – https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/25/no-deal-brexit-could-raise-price-of-mince-by-50-meat-industry-says

    also, here is a reason I like the EU (Yes, I said it)
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/oct/25/european-parliament-approves-curbs-on-use-of-antibiotics-on-farm-animals

    I know the UK government could implement this but I doubt if it would without a great deal of pressure.

    @WB61
    Not a fan of Alice in Wonderland so cannot give the best references, a search for quotes provides a rich selection:

    “Oh, you can’t help that,” said the Cat: “we’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.” “How do you know I’m mad?” said Alice. “You must be,” said the Cat, or you wouldn’t have come here.”,/i>

    and

    “It’s no use going back to yesterday, because I was a different person then.”

    seemed particularly apposite to the UK today

  26. @WB61

    Find Your Clan

    Apparently I am Global Green Community

    Me too

  27. TW et al

    The most preferred choice in that dubious poll, Canada + , isn`t obtainable, so those 26% opting for it, would perforce have to choose other options.

    This could even put Chequers on top.

    So the poll is useless, or even worse, it is misleading.

  28. WB61

    “Apparently I am Global Green Community”

    So am I – which makes it a pretty useless guide as to which party will receive our respective votes.

  29. @ WB61 – Regarding rationing then that kind of thing isn’t covered in the “no deal” info that DexEU have released but May did appoint a “Minister for Food” (David Rutley) back in Sep.

    Obviously I can’t possibly comment on the kind of plans they might have ready if say Macron shuts down Calais but it doesn’t take a genius to consider they’ve probably “gamed” various scenarios (and that the Dutch would be happy to take some business from French ports)

    Food has always been the issue I’ve been worried about if we crash out. Hence my desire since last Oct to accept we’re not going to get a good deal and restart talks from “No Deal” up.

    @ WTO comments (last thread) – Good article from Reuters (generally one of the few “neutrals” in the press)

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-wto/uk-signals-failure-of-bid-for-quick-brexit-transition-at-wto-idUKKCN1MZ2CX

    I don’t have the time or interest to go through it again other than to repeat my view it would be a lot easier for UK to sort out TRQs 1-1 with trade partners and throw EU under the bus to keep the old EU wide TRQs. Instead of importing RoI beef, just import a bit more from other countries (hormone free beef of course!!). Pretty sure some folks in DIT think the same but until May stops “playing nice” we won’t know for sure ;)

    Also a few countries kicking up a fuss won’t mean trade grinds to a halt – as the article points out the EU have been “non compliant” for ages but still trade with rWorld. Trade will continue while we sort it out despite what the Guardian journos make up to scare folks.

    @ DAVWEL – “By the time you gang get Barnett repealed, it`s likely that Scotland will again be subsidising England.”

    :-) :-)

    What oil price are you factoring in for that to happen? How much oil and gas is left in N.Sea?

    Independence would be a lot cleaner but sadly the second part of CON’s party name precludes that. Corbyn though?!? “Losing” Scotland is my silver lining in Corbyn needing SNP C+S.

    Regarding shipping costs to Aberdeen – do you think private companies should also subsidise the Scottish?
    “Midlands” to Aberdeen is a 7h+ drive. 14h+ round trip.

    If Parcelforce will deliver your chair for £60 then ask the chair company if they can send the chair using parcelforce. Or if you don’t like the total price incl. delivery don’t buy the chair from them. Simples!

  30. @ WB61 – My “clan” is “Modern Working Life”

    “Modern Working Life clan members are strong believers of the virtues of hard work and social mobility, supporting the view that it is always possible to achieve your goals, so long as you work hard. On balance most MWL clansmen believe the individual, not the state, should be responsible for their own well-being, and tend to have liberal views on the environment, LGBT rights and gender equality.”

    Pretty happy with that definition and judging by the picture that comes up I share that clan with Tom Jones – with unemployment so low and living in the Modern World I guess that it’s not unusual ;)

  31. WB61
    @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “I take it from that response that you believe there would be no economic effects from a no deal Brexit. If so what is the problem with having a contingency in place? If you are wrong rationing is a sensible response to shortages to avoid inflation (the Weimar problem) and if you are right the existence of the contingency would have no effect. The planning is, after all, an attempt to ameliorate any problems. If you are wrong, without such contingencies, the economic consequences could have us begging to rejoin the EU tout suite on much worse terms than we currently enjoy!”
    ______________

    Any government worth their salt & pepper will always have contingency plans put in place for any eventuality and a deal or no deal with the EU there was always going to be some volatility in the markets and teething issues with the flow of goods.

    But….It’s in everyone’s (yes them over there as well) interests to come to an amicable agreement over trade and so on because if things go pear shaped then France and Germany will stand to lose more in economic terms than any other EU country.

    You know, people think of the EU v UK as a David and Goliath scenario but in truth certain EU countries will be hit disproportionately harder than others.

    Lets be grown up about this..they have Junker and we have Boris so both sides are blessed with lumbering buffoons but thankfully it’s not all about obscure egos.

  32. Up until the mid/late 20th century, supposed membership of a clan in Scotland was determined by the clan your mother was a member of.

    Given the frequency of “mother’s maiden name” as a personal identifier, it’s just as well that tradition has died out, Else your tartan would be a key to identity theft!

  33. CROSSBAT11
    @Allan Christie

    “When we leave the EU the only rationing I can think of will be the rationing of handkerchiefs due to all the wailing.”
    ……………………………
    I’m glad I re-read this. When I glanced at it the first time and saw the mention of handkerchiefs and a word starting with the letters “wa” and ending in a “ing”, for one very shocked moment I thought you were referring to another, rather more ignoble, activity that occasionally involves handkerchiefs.

    Of course, the more I thought about it, the more it occurred to me that, when we do exit the EU, people like Rees Mogg, Farage, Gove and Johnson may well do rather a lot of what I originally thought you’d said.

    Well they are inveterate t*ssers after all!

    :-)
    ______________

    Ha! well who knows maybe some of us will need handkerchiefs for another more ” ignoble activity” due to all the excitement of leaving.
    :-)

  34. EOTW

    A lot of farmers voted for Brexit so if the price of mince goes up then its them who can explain to the consumers why the price of mince went up and why they voted Brexit.

    Do you think the price of mince going up will affect the price of mince pies?
    ………………

    WB61

    Find Your Clan
    ____________

    I got Mac-Bot

  35. There’s lots of confusion about the flow of goods post brexit.

    There is *no* impediment to imports from the new customs/regulatory regime. The UK could minimise checks, so may end up with dodgy goods with no recourse, but that is the worst that can happen.

    The *is* a very real problem with exports. These will take much longer to check and clear at Calais etc., which will not be able to cope with a backlog. Thus ro-ro ferries will not be able to unload at Calais unless they are sent from the UK mostly empty.

    It does not take Einstein to realise that cutting exports severely but expecting to pay for the same imports is not a sustainable business plan. Sterling will take a battering and import prices will rise to the new normal, with fewer imports for the people that can afford them only.

    Also I would not like to be the government minister tasked with controlling the flow of lorries to UK ports so that Calais does not clog up.

    All this in any hard brexit scenario, agreement or not.

    In the No Deal scenario, there is also likely to be little or no air freight for an extended period while air service agreements are negotiated.

  36. I initially came up as Common-sense Solidarity but that didn’t fit as I don’t support renationalisation. So I had another go and got Notting Hill Society (NHS) are those ironic initials? Looking at the definition it sounds about right. Maybe I’m not the only lifetime Tory voter who is now a paid up Lib Dem member.

  37. As far as it is possible to judge VI has swung by about 1.5 points in the past three months, among the reasons being that voting shifts partly by which party is reported on as most active, occasionally shifting back when the Government is seen consistently to be performing badly, and back more reliably when one of the party make a more convincing and reliable policy statement or action, notably in an election manifesto or significan conference statement. The latter seems to have failed both parties this year. The last GE Labour manifesto was significantly more convincing.
    What might confuse voters is the practice of Labour in the past two years to be talking about economic and social policies, mainly about jobs and incomes, regardless of Brexit outcome.

  38. sam: Incidentally, do train drivers wish to be small boys?
    Anything to get out of actually working a train.

  39. The polls suggest the Lib Dem’s are clawing back some support from Lab. The Tories remain solid which given the mess they are making of Brexit is somewhat fortuitous.

    However the fun is about to start. The phoney war is over. May has run out of road and decisions will need to be made over the next few weeks. The Tories must own Brexit. It’s their mess. It’s their responsibility. I strongly suspect they will pay for it in 2022…. at the latest.

  40. “’…. the authoritarian regime in Brussels….

    ….Obscure Eastern European states……

    ….to swamp labour markets such as the UK’s with cheap migrant workers……

    ….the Mollycoddling Liberal elite…..

    ….At 10% ol Lurches curtains might begin to twitch…”

    It’s the quality of non-partisan contributions from Brexiters such as this which advance debate so much.

  41. @wb61 I too seem to be Global Green Community. Glad to find you are my relative.

  42. Liam Fox admits defeat on fast tracking TRQ agreements:

    https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1MZ2CX?__twitter_impression=true

  43. “…among the reasons being that voting shifts partly by which party is reported on as most active, occasionally shifting back when the Government is seen consistently to be performing badly, and back more reliably when one of the party make a more convincing and reliable policy statement or action, notably in an election manifesto or significan conference statement. The latter seems to have failed both parties this year. The last GE Labour manifesto was significantly more convincing.“

    ——-

    They have to save their ideas for the election campaign. Giving too much away now has its downsides.

    Assuming they have more ideas of course.

  44. “There’s lots of confusion about the flow of goods post brexit.”

    ——-

    Well I’m not sure it’s 100% clear right now tbh.

  45. Global Green.

    Kind of a surprise. Will try to obtain the full methodology.

  46. Trevor @ 5.31 pm

    This charge of £125 for shipping a £42 chair to Aberdeen is clearly not a realistic charge for what the company pay, but a deliberate attempt to make money out of people living in Scotland.

    From further perusal of the site, the charges within England are clearly related to distance from the Leicester base of the company, but once into Scotland there`s a substantial extra.

    To Carlisle the cost for this chair is £65, to Dumfries just 32 miles further it is £100. Anybody daft enough to deal with the company in the Inverness post code area will pay £165 to £185 extra for a £42 chair.

    The situation reminds me of what we experienced a few years ago in the bakery in Chipping Norton. They sell very good bread, so we had returned. But as soon as my wife proffered a Scottish note to pay, she was met with a stream of verbal abuse against Scots. Even though it should have been obvious that we weren`t Scots, this continued and we weren`t allowed to leave the shop with the bread we had bought. So we had to call the police, and they shut down the place for an hour while interviewing the owner and us.

    I daresay such incidents, once rare, are sadly becoming more frequent.

    But on the chairs, I now have found another Midlands supplier but will happily deliver a slightly heavier chair for £35 to £40 depending on our exact order.

  47. Davwel

    I presume you couldn’t find a suitable chair in a local shop (I know that’s a bit archaic).

  48. @ Hireton

    Many thanks for that. What we should note is that the countries who have objected to TRQ-splitting are the likes of the USA, Canada, and Australia. This problem cannot be blamed on the EU.

    What is also clear is that with the TRQ issue having been raised, there is no prospect of any new trade deals being ready for 29 March 2019. So not quite what Liam Fox promised a year ago….

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/liam-fox-promises-to-sign-40-free-trade-deals-the-second-after-brexit-2017-10

  49. ON:

    Well we did spend a fair bit of time in our helpful local furniture shop earlier this year, which resulted in a considerable sum of money spent there.

    And no, they don`t stock what I wanted, and if we had tried to order through them I reckoned they and we would have had more hassle for such a small simple order than any possible profit they could earn.

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