Party conference season is sometimes a period of volatile polling – each party typically gets its own week of media coverage which, if all goes well, they’ll use for some positive announcements. This year it also immediately followed the Salzburg summit and Theresa May’s Brexit statement that followed. Below are the voting intention polls since my last update.

YouGov (18-19th) – CON 40%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 5% (tabs)
Opinium (18-20th Sep) – CON 37%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8% (tabs)
BMG (21st-22nd Sep) – CON 38%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
ICM (21st-24th Sep) – CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
YouGov (24-25th Sep) – CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
ComRes (26-27th Sep) – CON 39%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 5% (tabs)
Opinium (26-28th Sep) – CON 39%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 6% (tabs)
BMG (28-29th Sep) – CON 35%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 5%

They are a mixed bunch – the YouGov poll showing a six point Tory lead got some attention, and I’m sure the BMG poll out this morning showing a five point Labour lead will do much the same. As ever, it’s wrong to pay too much attention to outliers. Normal sample variation means that if the underlying average is a Tory lead of a point or two, random noise will occassionally spit out a 6 point Tory lead or a small Labour lead, without it actually signifying anything. Collectively recent polls don’t suggest a clear impact on voting intention from either the Salzburg statement (while YouGov showed a larger Tory lead, ICM did not), or from the Labour party conference (while BMG show an increased Labour lead, Opinium showed the opposite).


1,527 Responses to “Latest voting intentions”

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  1. Interesting decision by the European Parliament, taken from the BBC website:

    MEPs give their backing to a request from Italy to allow its enclave within Switzerland to join the EU’s customs area.

    The vote goes ahead, despite a failed attempt from UKIP MEP David Coburn to get the vote put off because the EU has not assessed the “need for a hard border in the middle of Lake Lugano”.

    MEPs do not have the power to block the change in this case anyway, but their opinion must be sought before it happens.

    Italy has historically excluded Campione d’Italia from the EU’s customs territory because of its geographic isolation and economic disadvantage.

  2. @ PTRP – It depends on what kind of border (agri-food is the tricky one), where, when and why.

    This was all in the ERG proposal that I’ve posted several times. DUP signed off on it. EC won’t like it but we have to at least ask. I’ve gone further highlighting the press reports (ie trial balloons) in the weekend press before ERG proposal (I’ve been calling them “Le Touquet+”)

    IMHO it can be solved to nearly everyone’s satisfaction but the issue will need a bit of fudge (island of Ireland is a biosecurity zone slightly “detached” from both UK and EU) and a few years to fully implement:
    – the technology to track customs declaration aspects between NI and RoI away from the border (HMRC have said we won’t need physical checks at the border)
    – the GB mainland physical check aspects that will permit GB to have broader capacity on new trade deals (which will be tricky while Stormont is down and May relies on DUP)

    More than that though it needs the UK to ask EC and the EC to have a “need” to allow it. Sadly I don’t see May asking or EC offering at the moment. However,

    Where there is political will there is a political way

    Anyway, enough from me. I’m off to stick pins in my voodoo doll of Hammond ;)

  3. PTRP

    I Don’t necessarily agree that we need to run a surplus.
    With Deficits down to these levels as % GDP, Debt looms as the larger risk under a future recession.

    Debt to GDP% will fall as GDP grows-so a Balanced Budget would be my basic stance.

  4. TREVOR WARNE

    @”Hammond = McDonnell”

    That is a ridiculous thing to say imo.

    Nearly as ridiculous as that Bush article..

    Hammond believes that jobs & tax revenues-the stuff which supports families & the Public Services-are generated by the Private Industrial & Commercial Sector.

    I agree with him.

    I don’t remember McDonnell mentioning jobs or wealth creation once. He mention wealth confiscation a lot.

  5. “I think you will find it hard to get past TREVOR’s anti Hammond bias here, but thanks for facts on this do you still think that Hammonds austerity would win votes?”

    ——-

    How many votes do they need to win? Going back to Maggie and through the New Labour years, parties won elections by pandering to the largest voting demographic with big house price rises, securing their pensions, winter fuel payments, insulating them from what policies others were experiencing.

    It’s still going on. They’re wanting to put up taxes to pay for the NHS, because guess who needs the NHS. As long as they remain the dominant demographic, then parties can secure victories by pandering to this demographic at the expense of others.

    This is why the attrition rate matters, versus any replacement rate, and Tories need to be funding the NHS to keep them alive and voting for longer.

  6. Trevor Warne,
    “In rough GDP terms from 1Q16 to now we’re probably about £30bn below the parallel universe where Remain won.”

    Surely the BofE spent rather more than this just propping up the economy and the pound in the days after the referendum…?

    Must be 100bn down at least by now.

    Passtherockplease,
    ” tell me the process/path that leads to remaining.”

    Government shows the public it has tried every possible form of Brexit and found them deficient. Tory MPs get up and criticise every possible variant of leave. The public comes to understand that there is no possible form of brexit without severe difficulties.

    Government arranges that some of its MPs will fail to support it – whatever Brexit plan they choose there is an established body of their MPs who consider it unacceptable. Government presses on, but is defeated by parliament. So it isnt their fault, if the voters had supported them in the election, then it would have had enough MPs to push forward.

    It is of course necessary that opposition MPs espouse the cause of remain. Technically remaining is far simpler than leaving, and would only involve canceling the legislation already passed (which is still incomplete anyway).

    For their part labour is dancing just as much as the tories over what they really want. They will have to decide whether to support remain or not. If they dont then the government will have to consider if it is willing to defeat itself with a bigger rebellion or even full blown split. Possibly precipitating an election and thereby evading making the brexit decision.

    If timed corectly, May could engineer a default no deal brexit while parliament is dissolved for the election, leaving labour to resume negotiations to deal with the mess when they win. Or, an election bringing in a new labour government which will have to make a last minute decision. It is hard to see how they could do anything except withdraw article 50 and sue to remain. But if they didnt, then remainers would blame labour for Brexit.

    The only way out of this for the conservatives is to get labour implicated in leaving the EU.

  7. Mrs May has a new proposal for resolving the Irish border problem apparently. What will the DUP make of it?

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/10/02/moment-of-truth-approaches-for-the-dup-deal-as-may-prepares-to-reveal-her-latest-plan-for-the-border/

    “The prime minister is ready to propose a “grand bargain”, according to her colleagues, which would keep Britain tied to European customs rules on goods after the transition period ends in December 2020.

    No 10 will claim that the UK has left the customs union at this point, but by keeping key rules the ability to agree trade deals would be curtailed for many years. Britain would also accept demands that goods entering Northern Ireland from Britain must meet European standards, with the potential for checks in the Irish Sea.

    The concession is likely to enrage Brexiteers, who will claim that it amounts to staying in a partial customs union indefinitely, severely limiting the scope to sign trade deals with countries such as America, Australia and New Zealand that want access to Britain’s agricultural markets.”

  8. @SAM

    If that is true then she has broken the fateful redline of not make NI an exception. I suppose what will be interesting is how the hell you sell that to either the Conservative and Unionist party and more pertinently how you sell that to Scots that this could be an exception. The Scots would argue they are exceptional too and since as OLDNAT would say they are separate political structure they should get the same deal since they voted for it. I suspect London would do the same too.

    I think she is very brave politically.

  9. Reposting from the bottom of the previous page as it got swamped by the usual private arguments about Brexit, which should be discussed on a site dedicated to that rather than on a polling and elections site.

    On the assumption that there will be no more September polls, I make the average for the month as
    Con 39.0 (+0.4)
    Lab 37.8 (-1.2)
    LD 9.9 (+1.5)
    UKIP 5.1 (-0.6)
    Changes from August average.

  10. Javid has just made his pitch for the PM’s job; now it’s BJ’s turn.

  11. PTRP

    John Pienaar on BBC radio says that he can find no background to the story and thinks it might be flying a kite for the possibility that this plan is for use only in the event that no other deal is reached

  12. @SAM

    it is still a wow even as a kite flyer…..but I was prepared to say a deal is possible.

  13. Colin,
    “What I think is that the necessary fiscal tightening to eliminate an annual Deficit of 11% of GDP has brought the population to the end of its tolerance after a decade”

    An alternative interpretation of tory fiscal policy would be this:
    1)The economy was in poor shape, but historic trends said it would bounce back as the world economy recovered..because the world economy recovered…because it always does mirror the world economy. This would automatically eliminate the deficit.
    2) Tories took this opportunity to cut government spending. This naturally depressed the economy, but this was explained away as the lingering results of the 2008 crash. In reality Keynsian logic applied and a cut in spending led to loss of growth. Tory austerity caused the deficit.

    The logic behind this is that as longstanding policy tories wished to shrink government, so they took this opportunity to do so. The deficit was the result of their policy and deemed an acceptible price to pay. The real issue was not the price, but whether it could be sold to voters.

  14. @SAM @PTRP

    For a while now I have suspected that the NI border resolution will be the EU’s preferred option of a customs border in the Irish Sea. The main issue at the moment is to find a way of describing it as something other than a customs border in the Irish Sea.

  15. @ COLIN – The “=” means “leads to” in the twitterverse

    You don’t need to run a balanced budget to get debt/GDP down. Depending on inflation, growth, level of debt, etc then a budget deficit of 2%ish keeps debt/GDP relatively stable.

    We should try to get it down at some point but NOT as we switch from an EU-centric model to Global Britain and the whole EU27 are trying to poach UK jobs and businesses and especially NOT if the adjustment process is faster and bumpier than it might be. The third NOT is when the alternative is the Marx bros!

    There is no need to throw money into money pits but there was/is a need to start fighting for UK jobs and businesses, giving nurses, schools, etc real pay/spending increases, etc, kick starting housing, etc, etc.

    As you have pointed out yourself people are tired of austerity. The far left populists have tapped into that. We need to grow a “bigger pie” and share it out even more evenly, get the younger generation to see the benefit of a market based economy, etc. That requires a far more proactive CoE and a PM who can delegate and lead. Hence:

    May + Chuquers “leads to” Corbyn
    Hammond “leads to” McDonnell

    @ DANNY – The BoE doesn’t “spend” money and rate cuts/QE don’t prop up the pound, quite the opposite.

    @ SAM – Sammy Wilson and Arlene Foster have already responded to Chuquers 2.0:
    https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp

  16. @BazinWales

    On the assumption that there will be no more September polls, I make the average for the month as
    Con 39.0 (+0.4)
    Lab 37.8 (-1.2)
    LD 9.9 (+1.5)
    UKIP 5.1 (-0.6)
    Changes from August average.

    Good piece of work, but my only caveat is that the September average VI for the Tories contains four YouGov polls all showing either 4% (3 polls) or 6% (1 poll) Tory leads. This seems a little out of kilter with most of the other September polls showing more or less a neck and neck race between the two main parties.

    The fact that YouGov poll much more frequently than other pollsters and that their polls seem to be indicating much larger Tory leads than all the other pollsters, then your monthly average VI ratings may well be slightly skewed.

  17. PTRP

    Perhaps this is May’s Plan B. Would it get more approval in parliament than Chequers? I doubt it.Labour is determined to use the six tests (which are Conservative claims or promises) to oppose any Tory WA. Chequers won’t work with Brussels and I guess there is bound to be something unacceptable about a temporary (but probably lengthy) transition.

    What % do you reckon on likelihood of no deal, pray?

  18. On turnout threshold

    Obviously, the Macedonian turnout at the referendum was low (and not only for internal political reasons was the turnout so low).

    Hungary has a 50% threshold for referenda, and it was exactly one year ago when the government failed to bring out 50% of the voters. It didn’t obstruct them to claim victory, but they had to introduce the laws (of hate) in a different way.

    After the regime change in 1989-90, the election law stipulated 50% turnout in individual constituencies (half of the seats then), and as a result one of the constituencies didn’t have an MP for years.

    It was also stipulated that the winning candidate had to have 50% of the votes, otherwise there was a second round (with the three highest scoring candidates, of which one usually withdrew) – like in presidential elections in some countries

    As the system almost wiped out Fidesz in 1994, in 2010 they got rid of the threshold for elections and the second round (also reduced the number of constituencies by attaching rural areas to towns and cities) – and while they would have won the 2018 elections even in the old system, in their new one they have 2/3 majority, so they can change the constitution (for the 8th time in 8 years).

    So, I think, threshold or no threshold doesn’t really matter – just the political game is played differently.

  19. @TW
    The right wing populists also tapped into weariness with austerity, by the simple expedient of blaming the bad outcomes of austerity (NHS pressures, social housing shortages, large class sizes, etc) on EU immigrants.

    I’m no apologist for Corby and his chum McDonnell, but at least they are blaming austerity on the government which is choosing to implement it, which is somewhat more honest…

  20. “A leading national broadcaster has claimed a DUP MP told her they could build a border between the Republic and Northern Ireland “as high as they like”.

    Shelagh Fogarty was responding to a caller on her LBC show on Monday but did not name the MP as the comment was made to her “off the record”.”

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/brexit-did-dup-mp-say-build-irish-border-as-high-as-you-like-37375843.html

  21. @ SAM / ETC – The “easy” bit in DUP”s demands is:

    “In all circumstances, the UK will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for NI’s businesses to the whole of the UK internal market”

    We can certainly ensure NI goods enter GB with no new regulatory barriers.

    The other way is the tricky bit and I’m not sure DUP would fall for GB mainland not technically being the Irish sea – but May should ask them at least and not via the press!

    It seems almost certain that May is going to have to call a bluff on either EC or DUP. If she wants any chance of staying PM then the bluff to call is on EC as ERG will be four square behind DUP on Chuquers 2.0!

    DUP are probably also very low on trust with May floating “trial balloons” in the press. Surely she should have learnt that after the Dec fiasco.

    @ ARTEMIS – Boris was tamer than expected and that will have helped him broaden his appeal, although too many CON MPs despise him (all IMHO). May stole a lot of Javid’s thunder but still a great leadership bid speech from him. He is certainly the future for CON either as PM or IMHO better as CoE (no idea who PM should be though).

    Boris and Javid jostle around neck and neck in the bookies. Boris moving slightly ahead after the two speeches, after having been a little behind this morning.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125574963

    Of course getting both of them and likes of Hunt, SMogg, etc on side would be very easy and well within her grasp. I doubt she’ll give much away tomorrow but very soon she has to decide whether to capitulate to EC and call bluff on DUP+ERG or “pivot” to FTA+ and call EC’s bluff on NI border.

    We’ll know soon!

  22. Danny

    I think you are conflating two different things. One is the state of the economy, the other is the Tory ideology. I agree with you on the latter, but not on the former.

    There is one thing that people forget about Keynesian economics – it is a reinterpretation of Fisher’s equation in reality, and hence the government spending beyond its revenues mean only that the government takes over the debt or borrowing from others (but somebody would have to be in debt). Keynes argued that the government debt is better, but if we take his logic in the General Theory to its conclusion, we get to the Y=C+G function, that is, all investment should be done by the government (because of the diminishing marginal utility of capital). Not accidentally, he also proposed the abolishing of interest (it is also related to the liquidity trap).

    The truth is – a proportion of the demand had to be taken out of the UK economy once the recession hit – the question was whose demand, and who would manage it, not whether the demand had to be reduced.

    The austerity politics didn’t do a particularly great job, as it spread the reduction of demand over almost a decade, and it loaded the burden on the general popolous, but it has to be said that in comparison to the 1992-94 recession (which was smaller), the effects have been less visible.

    The question is – is there a viable transition path to a different kind of economic policy (the kinds tried earlier in the last few decades) – I really doubt it. I really think that governments are running out of policies of buying time. And the biggest threat would be the first capitalist recession in China.

  23. Ian Dunt thinks the speech by Johnson makes it more difficult for Mrs May to get a WA based on Chequers through

    http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/10/02/johnson-speech-it-really-looks-like-may-is-going-to-lose-tha

  24. @ BFR – The whole ref campaign was ugly from both sides. I’m not going to deny some aspects of the broader Leave campaign didn’t dredge the depths of the farRight, hopefully we don’t need to go through that again – horror movie sequels are usually far more ugly than the original!

    Darling of the Arch-Remainers, Blair, called Brexit a populist punch from the far right and is worried it will be followed by a populist punch from the far left.

    Brexit was IMHO the slap around that face that we needed to wake us up to the need for change. The campaign was vile and hopefully will not be repeated.

    The concern now is May+Hammond just standing there like idiots in denial, doing nothing while Corbyn+McDonnell wind up their windmill arm to deliver a knock out haymaker :<

  25. Very wise words from Peter Ricketts, or Baron Ricketts as he’s now known. He has a wealth of diplomatic experience and impeccable non-partisan credentials. Here’s his Wikipedia profile as proof. No Blairite/Arch Remainer/Enemy of the People etc etc he: –

    “Ricketts replaced Peter Westmacott as HM Ambassador to France effective January 2012, with Kim Darroch taking Ricketts’s old role as National Security Adviser.In December 2015 the Foreign and Commonwealth Office announced that he was to retire from the Diplomatic Service in January 2016.

    Prior to his appointment as National Security Adviser, Ricketts had been the Permanent Secretary in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Before he took over that position in July 2006, he served as the Permanent Representative to NATO in Brussels. He was also previously the Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee, leading him to give evidence to The Iraq Inquiry in November 2009. He began his career in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in 1974 and served as the Assistant Private Secretary to former Foreign Secretary Geoffrey Howe. Apart from Brussels, he has been posted to Singapore, Washington D.C. and Paris. Ricketts retired from HM Diplomatic Service in January 2016.”

    Of course, he is an expert, so that obviously goes against him! :-)

    Here’s his article: –

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/02/brexit-tory-rhetoric-theresa-may-self-harm

  26. “The fact that YouGov poll much more frequently than other pollsters and that their polls seem to be indicating much larger Tory leads than all the other pollsters, then your monthly average VI ratings may well be slightly skewed.“

    ———

    You could always average the Yougov polls to make them the same frequency as others, and then give a revised figure for the poll of polls as a comparison.

  27. Just reading the opening paras of Crossbat’s link…

    “Something odd happens to Conservative politicians these days when they get the job of foreign secretary. They seem to feel an urge to start insulting our European friends and allies. Boris Johnson, among many other gaffes, described the former French president François Hollande (a mild-mannered man) as like a Nazi prison guard wanting to administer punishment beatings. Now Jeremy Hunt, in his speech this week to the party conference, has compared the EU to the Soviet Union or a prison trying to prevent Britain escaping.

    Our continental neighbours are wearily resigned to British ministers engaging in Euro-bashing at this time of year. But Hunt’s jibe about the Soviet Union was as disrespectful as it was insensitive. Had he forgotten the sufferings of the Baltic states and what the EU has brought them in terms of freedom and prosperity, thanks to British leadership in pressing for EU enlargement in the 1990s? Or did he not care, in his pursuit of an applause line? I don’t know which is worse, but the dignified protests of several ambassadors to Britain show how hurtful this comparison was…”

    It’s getting a bit embarrassing. Like they’ve been watching what’s going on over the pond and so they’re trying to out-Trump…

  28. “The public comes to understand that there is no possible form of brexit without severe difficulties.”
    @danny October 2nd, 2018 at 12:22 pm

    The problem with this is many (probably Labour) leave voters are already suffering badly. That may even be why some of them voted leave. Arguments like this don’t wash. In fact I’d say they may be more inflammatory and make them dig their heels in — ‘you mean it’s going to hurt remoaners too? Good!’

    They don’t understand, or are not willing to understand, what the EU is and how it can help the country. No one’s helping them, so why should they care?

  29. The immigration policy that Theresa May has set out, as on R4 Today this morning, is going to cause many problems.

    Already we have serious staffing problems in agriculture, care, NHS and schools, and many of them are in the so-called unskilled employment sector.

    What TM is now proposing of a sharp reduction in foreigners coming to the UK to fill the vacancies in this low-paid sector, is truly callous.

    The impacts of the staff shortages will fall most heavily on people who don`t vote Conservative, and sadly I believe some Brexiteers will actually be pleased about this. What the EU referendum has done is produce deep suspicion and hatred within the UK, and May seems powerless to reduce this.

    To take just one example that I hear people complaining daily about, the Scottish Ambulance Service: strikes are now being considered because the staff are having to work such long hours and are demoralised and exhausted.

    “Unite the union has confirmed just under 75% of members working at the Scottish Ambulance Service (SAS) north division have given the union a mandate to move for a legal industrial ballot””
    .
    https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/ambulance-staff-poised-for-strike/

    “”Scotland braced for ambulance crew strike over ‘dangerously long’ hours. FURIOUS ambulance crews could go on strike following claims a staff member had worked for 36 hours on a single shift.””

    ps://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1016162/scotland-news-ambulance-strike-UNITE-SNP

  30. On the monthly averages, maybe you should work out one average per polling company per month. Then work out the average of each party based on those single aversages. That would get rid of some bias created by companies contributing more than one set of figures each month.

  31. Theresa May this morning actually talked this morning of encouraging employers to train up more British people to fill the vacancies and replace immigrants.

    This is as daft as proposing the idea of a 23-mile bridge Scotland to NI, or a 10-mile tunnel below the Snake to improve the Manchester-Sheffield link road.

    There is not currently a pool of unemployed people waiting to be trained, though this could develop after Brexit. It`s now in 2018 that more people wanted to fill jobs, not in 2020-2025.

    So, how many more people are going to have year-long waits for NHS treatment?

    How many more fires will not get put out before serious damage occurs, because we don`t have the personnel to drive the engines?

    How much more fruit is going to be wasted because there`s no fit young people to pick the crop?

    In the long run, keeping up full employment in the UK is obviously highly desirable. But meantime TM`s ideas need 5-10 years to work, and if the lady had any sense she would ask for several years` delay in Brexit.

  32. Good afternoon all from a breezy and cloudy Central London.
    LASZLO

    “Hungary has a 50% threshold for referenda, and it was exactly one year ago when the government failed to bring out 50% of the voters. It didn’t obstruct them to claim victory, but they had to introduce the laws (of hate) in a different way”
    ____________________

    You’re referring to the Hungarian migrant quota referendum, 2016, where 98.3% of those who bothered to turn out rejected the EU migrant quotas. That’s almost 50% of the electorate and 50% is a very strong mandate for any government but I accept this was a referendum where there was a minimum turnout threshold.

    The way I see it is simple. If people can’t be bothered to take part in a countries referendum or general election then that’s their problem.

    It’s a pity more voters didn’t turn out for the migrant quota referendum because I’m sure the result would had still shown the vast majority of Hungarians rejecting the EU’s divisive migrant quotas.

    Still…If the Hungarians are such a right wing thorn in the EU’s side then why is the morphing project still flirting with Hungary? and you ain’t seen nothing yet…just wait and see what the Ukraine brings to the table when they join the EU!! Boy you’re in for a fascist treat.

    Hungary has legitimacy when controlling her borders….Nothing wrong with that.

  33. Wouldn’t everything have been much easier if the ERG Tories had transferred en masse to UKIP for the 2015 GE, it seems to be their natural home.

    There again, I suppose that without them in the Tory party Cameron wouldn’t have needed to run a referendum.

    So yes, much, much easier.

  34. Carfew

    I suspect Hunts comments regarding Russia are fairly minor compared to what foreign diplomats have called the U.K in the past or how the EU has regarded the UK over the last two years of negotiation it certainly hasn’t stopped them from poring public humiliation on the U.K. leadership recently.
    As usual this is the rather tiresome fake indignation we see far to often today when people claim to be offended because it suits a purpose and worse still make unsubstantiated claims that entire sections of the population are up in arms when in fact very few even notice.

  35. DAVWEL
    “Theresa May this morning actually talked this morning of encouraging employers to train up more British people to fill the vacancies and replace immigrants”
    ____________

    Skilled workers are in short supply and I don’t think anyone is advocating that we stop them from coming and in actual fact I think we should be doing more to retain foreign graduates to stay in the UK after they have graduated in areas such as medicine,engineering, finance and so on, but also ensuring UK born nationals are also given good and proper training in specialist areas.

    Onto unskilled workers..
    As a UK voter and tax payer I want to see a greater emphasis on creating incentives for employers to employ more UK born workers in the unskilled sector rather than relying on migrant labour from outwith the UK.

    The support network for migrant workers in the UK puts them at an advantage over UK born workers because at a moments notice scrupulous agency firms can promise a huge pool of labour willing to work for the minimum wage and willing to relocate to anywhere in the country at very short notice where as UK born workers are going to be less transient for obvious reasons such as family commitments.

  36. YG poll out on “leaders”, modestly good short-term news for May?

    She is net -25 on doing a good job as PM (not much change), but..

    55% of CON VI think she should stay to contest next GE (it was less than 10% on ConHom members poll).

    Which seems to be because all the other options are viewed as even worse:

    Would following make good leader after May, net (DK)

    Boris -21 (18)
    Gove -47 (33)
    Javid -12 (46)
    SMogg -21 (40)
    Hunt -35 (41)
    Williamson + Morduant both with huge DKs.

    DK’s in this regard are important to some extent as easier to turn a DK than a “poor leader”. This is why most folks think Boris’s chance has gone. He has 57% of people who see him as a poor leader, even within CON VI he is only net +3 “good leader”

    Javid is looking the best of a bad bunch for broader appeal but is net -5 with CON VI?

    As we see in CON conf, her rivals are for now hoping to “steer” Theresa rather than be the one to try and take her down and this poll seems to support that.

    The 48 MPs v 159 MPs and 1y retry issues being important factors as well of course!

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/606oa52wul/TimesTrackers_180927_Leaders_RESULTS_W.pdf

  37. @TURK @Carfew

    I suspect Hunts comments regarding Russia are fairly minor compared to what foreign diplomats have called the U.K in the past or how the EU has regarded the UK over the last two years of negotiation it certainly hasn’t stopped them from poring public humiliation on the U.K. leadership recently.
    As usual this is the rather tiresome fake indignation we see far to often today when people claim to be offended because it suits a purpose and worse still make unsubstantiated claims that entire sections of the population are up in arms when in fact very few even notice.

    And was British pique at Salzburg and the subsequent tweet fake indignation or a genuine demand for respect?

  38. Laszlo,
    “The truth is – a proportion of the demand had to be taken out of the UK economy once the recession hit – the question was whose demand, and who would manage it, not whether the demand had to be reduced.”

    Surely, the exact opposite is true. The authorities strove hard to boost demand. The credit crunch sucked money out of the economy and hence it stalled – no one had money to buy anything. Hence the logic behind QE, which pumped in money hand over fist. It did not cause inflation, partly because they tried to contain it to banks which were anyway contracting their lending, partly because it was simply replacing money which disappeared instantly in the credit crunch.

    What went wrong was money disappeared overnight, and stood at great risk of literally disappearing if banks had gone into actual bankruptcy and ceased operations.

    Did you not notice the fall in Uk productivity? what happened was lack of demand hit production, but firms kept on staff/reduced wages instead of slimming down. There was no risk from surplus demand which could not be satisfied, wholly the reverse.

    This was a golden opportunity for the government to finance its debt at nil cost by printing money without causing inflation, and probaby they should have QEd rather more. Consider it a stealth tax on banks!

    Trevor Warne,
    “@ DANNY – The BoE doesn’t “spend” money and rate cuts/QE don’t prop up the pound, quite the opposite.”

    The bank replaced money which was withdrawn from the UK. It stabilised the economy. BUT – if we had a spare 50 bilion to spend, we could equaly have taken it from the bank’s magic money tree and spent it into the economy. It was real money pushed out there. The biggest funder of government debt is currently the BofE with funny money it created. (not forgetting all money is just pretty paper issued by the BofE)

    ” The campaign was vile and hopefully will not be repeated.”

    Tush, you havn’t seen anything yet! just watch the recriminations if brexit actually happens. This has the potential to bring down both the tory and labour party if they are implicated in Brexit.

  39. CROSSBAT11 /CARFREW

    I do average all the polls for each company before putting the figures into the spreadsheet. I also do not ignore polls which seem badly wrong so the strange LD 6% from Survation, before they “corrected” it a few days later, brought their average down to 8% denying LDs their first double digit score of the year!

  40. Heard a little of Boris.
    Surely he is applying the same strategy as when he became leader of the leave campaign. Get adulation for supporting the cause, confident never to have to deliver because you do not expect to win.

  41. “Theresa May this morning actually talked this morning of encouraging employers to train up more British people to fill the vacancies and replace immigrants.”

    ——

    If any of them fancy training up some of our politicians too while they’re at it that’d be quite handy…

  42. Allan Christie,
    “As a UK voter and tax payer I want to see a greater emphasis on creating incentives for employers to employ more UK born workers in the unskilled sector rather than relying on migrant labour from outwith the UK.”

    As a Uk citizen I would rather all Uk people have well paid jobs, and the rubbish ones are done for us cheaply by foreigners.

    Of course, we could reorganise the economy with a huge hike in minimum wage, so there was no such thing as a badly paid job. But maybe people still would not want to be out in the rain picking carrots, or cleaning up sick?

    Do you think perhaps if it is put like that, people would welcome immigration?

  43. Turk
    “I suspect Hunts comments regarding Russia are fairly minor compared to what foreign diplomats have called the U.K in the past or how the EU has regarded the UK over the last two years of negotiation it certainly hasn’t stopped them from poring public humiliation on the U.K. leadership recently.”

    Would you like to give some examples to support your argument? I can’t think of any.

  44. DANNY

    Like so often on this forum people cherry pick parst of a comment.

    Did you miss the part where I wrote…” The support network for migrant workers in the UK puts them at an advantage over UK born workers because at a moments notice scrupulous agency firms can promise a huge pool of labour willing to work for the minimum wage”

    Do you think perhaps if it is put like that, people would welcome immigration?

  45. TREVOR WARNE

    @”There is no need to throw money into money pits but there was/is a need to start fighting for UK jobs and businesses, giving nurses, schools, etc real pay/spending increases, etc, kick starting housing, etc, etc.”

    I agree.

    @”That requires a far more proactive CoE and a PM who can delegate and lead”

    I’m actually quite wary of “pro-active” CoE’s
    . Gordon Brown was one such. And I think he is a lesson in why not to have CoE’s who want to tell the PM & Cabinet what they should spend on as well as their “day job” of saying how much they can spend.
    THe net result, as you will recall is constant repetition -by Brown-of spending promises which had already been made , never ending failure to meet Public Finance Budget numbers-and finally -the deranged belief that he had abolished Boom & Bust just at the time his failed monitoring of an out of control Finance Sector was about to bring the Banking system crashing down. CoEs who want to run the whole Government are bad news imo.

    So I quite like CoE’s to be CFOs. Hammond fits that bill well & so his boring speeches never get me excercised. Unfortunately he has a poor set of political antennae. But thats OK too-provided the PM & Ministers have them & know what they need to spend on.

  46. @ DAVWEL – adding to AC’s comments, there is the issue of UK businesses previously seeing labour as a cheap hire+fire “resource” rather than investing in more productivity (human or machine). This led to the rise of zero contract hours and our low rates of productivity.

    As unemployment has gone down we’ve already seen a drop in zero contract hours. Project Fear 2.0 is keeping a lid on wages and investment but if business can’t tap an endless supply of E.Europeans then they will need to invest in productivity – be that human skills or machinery.

    The immigration plan covers NHS, etc as “skilled” and has a category for agricultural/hospitality workers (SAW).

    Further it will no longer discriminate due to nationality or citizenship – ie it will no longer be a rac1st policy.

    Nativist, yes. Rac1st, no – that was the EU FoM policy that Dianne Abbott highlighted forced us to discriminate against Pakistani doctors in favour of Polish doctors.

    So if the new, non-rac1st immigration policy sees improvement in working conditions and real wages as companies now have to compete to recruit, upskill and retain workers then yes – I’ll be pleased. Businesses won’t be and could do with “help” to adjust.

    Frankly, I’m amazed LAB VI can’t see the benefit of ending FoM – possibly because 3/4 of LAB VI are Blairites pretending to be Corbynistas?

    There will obviously be some bumps along the way but the problems you highlight predate Brexit.

    However, for sure, HMG do need to address the issues in the public sector as a matter of moral and political urgency, tackling both the short-term and longer-term issues with “joined-up” thinking between departments and a CoE who can get his head out of his spreadsheets.

  47. DANNY

    @”An alternative interpretation of tory fiscal policy would be this:”

    Re your 1)-I don’t agree.

    RE your2)-no it didn’t . I invite you to look at the Public Finances for FY 2009/10 and the annual Deficit record thereafter.

  48. trevor Warne,
    “Further it will no longer discriminate due to nationality or citizenship”

    Ah, so Uk born, Indian born or Polish born will all have equal right to live and work here? I can see how there will not be a labour shortage.

    But isnt that just expanding the EU system to the entire world?

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