Party conference season is sometimes a period of volatile polling – each party typically gets its own week of media coverage which, if all goes well, they’ll use for some positive announcements. This year it also immediately followed the Salzburg summit and Theresa May’s Brexit statement that followed. Below are the voting intention polls since my last update.

YouGov (18-19th) – CON 40%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 5% (tabs)
Opinium (18-20th Sep) – CON 37%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8% (tabs)
BMG (21st-22nd Sep) – CON 38%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
ICM (21st-24th Sep) – CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
YouGov (24-25th Sep) – CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
ComRes (26-27th Sep) – CON 39%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 5% (tabs)
Opinium (26-28th Sep) – CON 39%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 6% (tabs)
BMG (28-29th Sep) – CON 35%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 5%

They are a mixed bunch – the YouGov poll showing a six point Tory lead got some attention, and I’m sure the BMG poll out this morning showing a five point Labour lead will do much the same. As ever, it’s wrong to pay too much attention to outliers. Normal sample variation means that if the underlying average is a Tory lead of a point or two, random noise will occassionally spit out a 6 point Tory lead or a small Labour lead, without it actually signifying anything. Collectively recent polls don’t suggest a clear impact on voting intention from either the Salzburg statement (while YouGov showed a larger Tory lead, ICM did not), or from the Labour party conference (while BMG show an increased Labour lead, Opinium showed the opposite).


1,527 Responses to “Latest voting intentions”

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  1. @oldnat

    Yes but I’m not sure how much that actually has affected the need (or not) for c&s in practice.

    Yes the gov gets a second chance but the existence of that devalues the first vote somewhat. Under a pre ftpa scenario the gov may have simply given in to the additional bung request to secure the votes it required.

  2. @James E:

    The EU is secure in the knowledge that the present Parliament will not allow the government to threaten no deal.

    It is not just the asymmetries of bargaining power.

    In the Scottish IndyRef, the EU threatened Scotland with no-deal, i.e. automatic expulsion from the EU equivalent to a no-deal Brexit. The SNP would not have turned and run, because they wanted independence enough to take the consequences.

    We have a Parliament that simply never has believed in Brexit, or even vaguely sympathised with it. So it never resolved that it should either commit to carrying through a threat of walk away, or just throw in its hand before the game starts. It decided to play the game, but then immediately signalled to Brussels that Parliament had no bottom line demands.

    So Brussels has spent the entire process thinking, “I can’t believe we’ll get away with this demand…” And then getting away with it. The Irish issue is put far more timidly in their original 2017 negotiating mandate. The transition was not contemplated to be “a stand still, no say, do what you’re told, scum” transition. But they keep getting away with it.

    So Brexit cannot happen. As the negotiations are predicated on the superior of the EU, and British dependence on the EU.

  3. One thing that caught my eye in the headline voting intention is that 16% of 18-24 year olds in britain are apparently going to vote for SNP/PC (double the number who would vote Conservative). Not sure what %age of the 18-24 year old population live n Wales/Scotland but i doubt it is as much as 16% (12-13%?). Looking at the raw tables, 9% of 18-24 year olds intend to vote for SNP/PC, and once the would not vote (18%) and don’t knows (22%) are taken out then the figure increases to 16%. The 18-24 subsample is small enough as it is but is then also undersampled so that is probably a factor too. Just shows the problems of taking the headline figure at face value.

  4. YOU GOV/TIMES
    October 10th 2018

    CON 41% (-1), LAB 37% (+1), LDEM 9% (-3), UKIP 4%(-1).

    As I said in my previous post, wait for some more polls especially the YOU GOV one.

    Here it is, and it confirms the trend towards reversion to pre conference levels.

    The Tories seem to be moving back into a small lead, with Lib Dems back just below 10% and UKIP drifting back

    This should be good news for Mrs May because in an election which is a showdown on Brexit any UKIPPERS left will be forced to choose, and are hardly likely to go with Labour, who won’t tell us its’ policy at all.

    All Labour’s told us is that they want us to stay in a Customs Union and will vote against any deal regardless of what it amounts to.

    It’s difficult to see what strand of Brexit thought that combination appeals to..

    Lib Dems however are likely to hold firm for other reasons.

    There seems to be hardening of attitudes amongst Lib Dems against Corbyn, So they won’t be lending Labour their votes like they did in 2017.

    According to the political ‘experts’ the conference season was going to be crisis for Mrs May.

    Not for the first time, so much for ‘experts’..

  5. @ Joseph1832

    The comments by Ivan Rogers (1:08 above) reflect the economic reality that ‘no deal’ would damage the UK’s economy far more than any other.

    You seem to be arguing the point from a purely political perspective – saying that ‘the present Parliament will not allow the government to threaten no deal’.

    I don’t think the matter is in the gift of Parliament: there is surely a real possibility that nothing is agreed in the next week, and we go to ‘no deal’ by default. If something is agreed, it is unlikely to satisfy one or more of the labour leadership, the DUP or Rees-Mogg’s followers in the Tory party.

    In my opinion, ‘No deal’ is still a distinct possibility, and you are in great danger of getting exactly what you want.

  6. @ Ronald Olden

    ‘Interesting’ post!

    Did you not realise that all three polls released in the past week – YouGov, Opinium, and BMG – show movement towards Labour?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

  7. R&D

    @”Why the BBC think this is suitable for adults I have no idea.”

    You should see what they have done to Daily Politics !.

  8. @James E

    Did you not realise that all three polls released in the past week – YouGov, Opinium, and BMG – show movement towards Labour?

    Last three polls:

    8th-9th Oct You Gov

    Con (-1)
    Lab (+1)
    LD 9 (-)

    3rd-5th Oct Opinium

    Con 39 (-)
    Lab 39 (+3)
    LD 7 (-2)

    3rd-5th Oct BMG

    Con 38 (+3)
    Lab 39 (-1)
    LD 10 (-2)

    ————————————–

    So Labour are +1, +3 and -1.

    All within MOE of the previous poll.

    It looks to me like Labour and the Conservatives haven’t really changed in any of the polls.

  9. @Catmanjeff

    My comparitor for the BMG/ Independent poll is the previous BMG/Independent one of early Sept; compared to that, Lab are up 1 point, as are the Tories.

    The BMG poll of 28-29 Sept seems like an obvious outlier, and the two six point Con leads with YouGov appear to have been just MOE stuff around a ‘norm’ of 4 point Con leads for YouGov. And none of this seems to fit with the idea that the Conservatives are ‘moving back into a small lead’ – although as you say these three polls are not enough to be sure if there has been a genuine advance by Labour either.

  10. @James E

    And none of this seems to fit with the idea that the Conservatives are ‘moving back into a small lead’ – although as you say these three polls are not enough to be sure if there has been a genuine advance by Labour either.

    Indeed.

    We need to sit and wait what transpires.

  11. Davwel

    This opinion piece, with evidence, might be of interest to you and others?

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/16980489.its-time-to-ask-some-serious-questions-about-the-bbcs-question-time/

  12. An independent Scotland is likely to be able to re-join the EU fairly quickly and without joining the Euro. So says Labour MEP, David Martin.

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/16980550.david-martin-scotland-would-not-have-to-join-euro-to-get-back-in-eu/

  13. JOSEPH1832 @ SAM & JAMES E

    Are you very young or old enough to be forgetting why we joined what is now the EU?

    We had a seat at the top table for more than 4 decades, but whilst our civil servants seem to have learned much, our politicians seem to have learned nothing.

    Granted that Cameron demanded no specific leave proposition be on the ballot – perhaps his biggest mistake amongst many – but it should have been obvious that doing some research in what options the EC and the other 27 members would consider should have been top priority before even considering invoking A50.

    Of course, the ECJ may decide that it can be invoked unilaterally, in which case the logical solution would be to tell the quitter MPs to spend a few years researching an EU exit which would actually work, at least to the extent of not making us poorer.

  14. It seems possible that Gove’s idea of what should follow Brexit might turn parts of the Highlands into the equivalent of the American dust bowls

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/16980623.gove-plans-would-hit-the-highlands-in-similar-way-to-uss-dust-bowls/?ref=mr&lp=9

    “Speaking in Brussels, the leading adviser on European agricultural policy was asked by journalists what would happen if income subsides are phased out in Scotland after Brexit.

    The senior European Commission official pointed to the dust bowls in the US – areas which were hit by drought and suffered mass evacuation in the 1930s. The disaster is described vividly by novelist John Steinbeck in his books The Grapes of Wrath and Of Mice and Men.”…..

    ……There needs to be a debate about what kind of community people want to have in the future. If they want to have viable rural communities, complementing our urban centres, then they need to have people stay there – that starts with farmers. Farmers are pretty good spenders, they turn money around. They get the cheque from the creamery and they go down to the merchant and buy their goods. If you take away his purchasing power, you compromise the viability of the merchant and suddenly the whole eco-system starts to crack.””

  15. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbiDVEcXLx0

    Ry Cooder – Taxes On The Farmer Feeds Us All Lyrics
    (Traditional, adapted by Ry Cooder)

    We worked through Spring and Winter, through Summer and through Fall
    But the mortgage worked the hardest and the steadiest of us all
    It worked on nights and Sundays, it worked each holiday
    Settled down among us and it never went away

    The farmer comes to town with his wagon broken down
    The farmer is the man who feeds us all
    If you only look and see I know you will agree
    That the farmer is the man who feeds us all

    The farmer is the man, the farmer is the man
    He buys on his credit until Fall
    Then they take him by the hand
    And they lead him from his land
    And the merchant is the man who gets it all

    The farmer is the man, the farmer is the man
    He lives on his credit until Fall
    With the interest rates so high
    It’s a wonder he don’t die
    But the taxes on the farmer feeds us all

    Well, the banker says he’s broke and the merchant stops and smoke
    But they forget that it’s the farmer that feeds them all
    It would put them to the test if the farmer took a rest
    And they’d know that it’s the farmer that feeds them all

    The farmer is the man, the farmer is the man
    Lives on his credit until Fall
    Well, his pants are wearing thin
    His condition, it’s a sin
    ‘Cause the taxes on the farmer feeds us all

  16. “COLIN
    R&D

    @”Why the BBC think this is suitable for adults I have no idea.”

    You should see what they have done to Daily Politics !.”

    Oh no I shouldn’t….

  17. @Sam

    I think many of the proposals put forward by Gove have the potential to turn farming around in the UK for the better, we shall see! It’s all going to be a question of whether the same £ goes in to the system.

    I do know the CAP is unreformable and I’m glad we’re leaving it behind.

  18. Leftie Liberal

    “but a Labour minority government wishing to renationalise the water industry and the Royal Mail would have to get primary legislation through Parliament. The same would apply to tax changes in the Budget. They could renationalise the railways by simply not renewing the franchises when they fall due, but that would just leave each of the franchises as a separate publicly-run company; they couldn’t recreate British Rail without primary legislation.”

    Doh! That’s the whole point with a minority government – without a tame majority in the legislature, they can’t just force through legislation just because they would like such things to happen! A minority government needs to work with enough of the opposition to get specific legislation, which is mutually acceptable, into law.

    Without that, they just have to get on with the business of governance – in which they have enormous power, without any need to seek Parliamentary approval.

    Your examples also suggest that you really haven’t considered the effect of EVEL and devolution.

    “renationalise the water industry” is a matter affecting only E&W (In Scotland & NI, water is already in public hands), so to do that it would need a majority of E&W MPs, as well as a HoC majority.

    “they couldn’t recreate British Rail without primary legislation.” SNP (and probably other Scottish) MPs would oppose that in any case. Why would they want to see even more power concentrated in London? There is a cross-party majority at Holyrood in favour of transferring Network Rail’s Scottish network to Holyrood control, where the facility to award the operator contract to a publicly owned company (probably Cal-Mac) is already being planned.

  19. Joseph 1832

    “In the Scottish IndyRef, the EU threatened Scotland with no-deal, i.e. automatic expulsion from the EU equivalent to a no-deal Brexit.”

    Nope. They rubbished (quite correctly) the Scottish Government’s claim that Scotland would have automatic entry to the EU.

    At the same time, they developed “holding pen” proposals for Scotland, if it voted Yes, in order to smooth transition arrangements to independent membership following the tri-partite negotiations between the EU, rUK and Scotland on the detailed arrangements.

  20. Thanks Sam @ 71.7 pm, for that link analysing BBC TV`s Question Time in its panel make-up.

    The meat is in the latter section, so I hope readers don`t give up after a shallow jokey start.

    Comparing 2010-2017/18 to 1979-1990 there`s been a big drop in trade unionists on the panel but more personalities and plenty of business people.

    And SNP have clearly done worse than LibDems in this recent period although having parity in MP numbers at Westminster.

  21. Sam: This opinion piece, with evidence, might be of interest to you and others?

    There’s an even more extraordinary example here of bias in the selection of QT panellists:

    https://leftfootforward.org/2018/10/breaking-pro-eu-meps-to-meet-bbc-news-exec-after-claims-of-pro-brexit-bias/

    Apparently, “not a single pro-EU MEP had been invited on the BBC’s flagship Question Time programme between 2013 and 2018 – instead UKIP provided 33 out of 35 MEP appearances, despite them having one of the lowest attendance records among MEPs.”

    That is just unbelievable.

  22. James B

    “Yes the gov gets a second chance but the existence of that devalues the first vote somewhat.”

    I’m glad that you now accept that things are now not as they were before FTPA. That first vote is, indeed, devalued, because (contrary to your previous assertion) it no longer deposes the government of the day.

  23. Somerjohn

    “That is just unbelievable.”

    Granted that you are using a figure of speech, but I was wholly unsurprised at those figures.

  24. Oldnat: I was wholly unsurprised at those figures.

    Well, I can only plead naivety.

    But did you spot which MEP filled the 2 out of 35 QT appearances not given to UKIP?

    Yup….. Daniel Hannan.

    It really does bring home why so many UK voters know so little about the EU.

  25. Opinium/Observer poll

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/13/tories-take-four-point-lead-over-labour-despite-brexit-troubles

    Con: 41 (+2)
    Lab 37 (-2)

    No other Party mentioned. No sign of the details on the Opinium site yet.

  26. Somerjohn

    Not being wholly au fait with English politics, I often assumed that Hannan was UKIP, there being no discernible difference.

    Of course, the London MSM has usually ignored European issues (unless they can be presented negatively. While Eorpa (BBC Alba and BBC2 Scotland) hasn’t got a mass audience (has BBC QT in Scotland?) that it has been reporting on social and political issues in Europe, weekly since 1993, it seems reasonable to suppose that there has been some effect on Scottish opinion.

  27. RosieandDavie/DavWel

    Don’t worry, my sense of humour is intact and I remain a big fan of R&D’s wit and sardonic take on things. This site would be the poorer without him/them, even if he/they follow the Gooners!

    Just had a quick scan through the posts and was delighted to see Sam’s reference to the great Ry Cooder. Things are definitely looking up on UKPR! I was a huge devotee of Cooder’s music in my youth and while I don’t listen to him much these days, his music still resonates with me. I’m going to try and trump Sam with this verse or two from Cooder’s “Down in the Boondocks”:

    “Down in the boondocks, down in the boondocks
    People put me down ’cause that’s the side of town I was born in
    I love her and she loves me
    But I don’t fit in her society
    Lord have mercy, I’m a boy from down in the boondocks

    Now, every night I watch the lights from the house upon the hill
    Well, I love a little girl who lives up there and I guess I always will
    But I don’t dare knock on her door
    ‘Cause her daddy is my boss man
    So I’ll just have to be content and see her whenever I can

    Lord have mercy, I’m a boy from down in the boondocks
    One fine day I’ll find a way and move from this old shack
    Well, I’ll hold my head up like a king and I’ll never, never will look back

    It goes on in that vein with Cooder’s distinctive blues-tinted voice and genius slide guitar playing supplementing perfectly the poignancy of his tale of unrequited love, tangled up in the treacle of class and social immobility. There’s elements of Springsteen in a lot of Ry’s music and lyrics. Love him to bits.

  28. CB11

    “the poignancy of his tale of unrequited love, tangled up in the treacle of class and social immobility.”

    Should be a real hit with the Unionists in Scotland, Wales and NI, whose love for the English Tories is perfectly (but negatively) correlated by the English Tories love for them!

  29. @LeftieLiberal

    Opinium

    Con: 41 (+2)
    Lab 37 (-2)

    Crikey, what’s this? Herding with YouGov??

    Or a bit of MOE?

    :-)

  30. @OldNat

    “Should be a real hit with the Unionists in Scotland, Wales and NI, whose love for the English Tories is perfectly (but negatively) correlated by the English Tories love for them!”

    :-):-):-)

  31. Somerjohn: this whole UKIP MEPs on QT is bad-faith cherry-picking of statistics to promote a false assertion. The reason that most MEPs on QT were from UKIP is that UKIP didn’t have MPs to send to the programme, because of our appalling electoral system. But UKIP still merited a place on the show, so who else were they going to send?

    If anything, you should be asking why Labour and the Tories never volunteered their own MEPs for the programme. It’s almost as if they weren’t bothered about educating their voters on European issues. Well, if you do that, don’t then turn round and complain about “low-information” voters.

  32. @OldNat

    Without the power to pass primary legislation, a minority government is dependent on secondary legislation (or statutory instruments) to introduce changes to the law:

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/delegated/

    These either have an affirmative procedure (Parliament must pass them before they can come into force) or a negative procedure (they come into force after a set time unless Parliament votes to annul them). In either case Parliament can block them.

    Of course, a minority government could do something like giving all NHS workers a 10% pay rise without the need for any legislation, but without the ability to raise the level of taxes in the Budget it would have to find the money either by cutting somewhere else or by increasing borrowing. If it went down the latter route, then we might see adverse comments from the OBR and even a run on the pound, forcing the BoE to raise interest rates faster. Any government that cannot get a Budget through Parliament is in a weak position, even if technically it can continue until the next scheduled FTPA election date.

  33. @CB11

    Ry Cooder… was there ever more atmospheric, appropriate film music than his soundtrack for Paris,Texas? Plus great accompaniment to Harry Dean Stanton’s singing of Canción Mixteca, which heart-wrenchingly – and perhaps more understandably for Scots and Irish than English – captures an emigrant’s nostagia for home:

    ¡Qué lejos estoy del suelo donde he nacido!
    inmensa nostalgia invade mi pensamiento;
    y al verme tan solo y triste cual hoja al viento,
    quisiera llorar, quisiera morir de sentimiento.

    ¡Oh Tierra del Sol! Suspiro por verte
    ahora que lejos yo vivo sin luz, sin amor;
    y al verme tan solo y triste cual hoja al viento,
    quisiera llorar, quisiera morir de sentimiento.

    How far I am from the land where I was born!
    Immense nostalgia overwhelms my thoughts:
    to see myself as alone and sad as a leaf in the wind,
    I want to cry, I want to die of heartbreak.

  34. @ LeftieLiberal

    Thanks for the breaking poll. While I do suspect the Tories are ahead at the moment, the headline itself “Tories take a four-point lead” is just typical of the media’s naive treatment of statistics. But I guess a headline that said “Tories are now slightly more likely to be ahead than they were before, but difficult to say as it’s still within the margins of error” would not really make it past the editor.

  35. Somerjohn

    Do you really think that the QT panel has anything to do with the voters’ knowledge of the EU or that knowledge had anything to do with the referendum?

    It wasn’t a cost-benefit analysis for most voters (if the polls can be believed).

    ——

    The tragedy of the Labour Party is that JC and co want to punish the losers of Brexit for their own ideological satisfaction.

  36. CB11

    Ta.

  37. Polltroll: you should be asking why Labour and the Tories never volunteered their own MEPs for the programme. It’s almost as if they weren’t bothered about educating their voters on European issues.

    I couldn’t agree more: Conservatives and Labour seem to have been happy to keep their voters in ignorance of European issues. We’re reaping what their cosy conniving sowed.

    But is it really bad-faith cherry-picking to point out that 35 out of 35 appearances by MEPs were of anti-EU types? Are you really suggesting that’s not statistically significant?

  38. Sam @ 7.53 pm

    This National article, about farmland in the Scottish Highlands being turned into dustbowls by Michael Gove`s policies, is a poor effort.

    Either the “leading adviser on European agricultural policy” or the journalist had little understanding of farmers in the Highlands. For a start most of them aren`t crofters, and it is stupid and wrong to say that “the Highlands of Scotland are a very particular ecosystem”. In fact we have several quite different ecosystems and types of farmland in the Highland region – such as machair, heather moorland, blanket bog, and cereal-cropped arable.

    Yes, farmers do play a central role in keeping the economic and cultural life of rural areas afloat, but some with good low-ground farms are doing this with little subsidy, whilst most crofters are not full-time on their crofts but earn in other ways.

    Fergus Ewing, SNP minister, would seem to me to be putting sensible arguments to Michael Gove for the upland farmers to be sufficiently supported by a combination of their sale income and payments for sensible conservation management .

    As for Jones in Bangor saying that CAP is unreformable, this is wrong as usual, since CAP has steadily evolved, with major changes every 5 to 10 years.

  39. It is all getting very exciting on the brexit front: in the next few days we get to see who has been bluffing.

    For my money, the EU aren’t bluffing and the DUP aren’t bluffing. Everyone else is, but hoping not to be found out.

    I’m sticking with my odds (from weeks ago, in response to Charles):

    May’s deal: 10%
    No deal: 40%
    Remain: 50%

    the last two being after another referendum.

  40. Laszlo: Do you really think that the QT panel has anything to do with the voters’ knowledge of the EU or that knowledge had anything to do with the referendum?

    Yes, in that it’s just one example amongst many of the failure over decades to cover EU affairs in a way that might have led to a bit more understanding of what it was all about.

    There was pan-EU polling two or three years ago which showed a near-perfect correlation between level of knowledge about the EU in each member state (measured by simple, basic questions) and support for it. I’ll leave you to guess the identity of the member state where knowledge of the EU was least, and support lowest.

  41. Colin,

    It’s pretty impossible to say what either Labour or Tory MPs will actually do. Probably some of them will change their minds several times, blowing with the prevailing wind. Last time there was a big vote it all changed in the last few hours and several LibDems didn’t even turn up!

  42. Leftie Liberal

    A minority government is always in a weaker position than a government with an overall majority.

    No one has ever suggested otherwise.

    Quite why you are posting such transparently obvious points is, however, unclear.

  43. @Davwel

    “As for Jones in Bangor saying that CAP is unreformable, this is wrong as usual, since CAP has steadily evolved, with major changes every 5 to 10 years.”

    I fundamentally disagree with that, and I am not wrong.

    The CAP and EU Agri Policy is obsessed with bureaucratic compliance, not trust and common sense outcomes. Good riddance.

  44. Davwel @ 10:49

    Spot on. My cousin farms close to Peter Cairns.

    It’s prime arable land – though constant cereal production means that the soil is just a growing medium, with all plant nutrition having to be artificially introduced.

    The situation of livestock producers on upland farms is entirely different.

    In the same way, “fishing” includes very diverse sectors which are differentially affected by Brexit (and other policies).

    For example, the interests of the 5 rich families who control much of the UK’s fishing quotas (allocated by the UK Government) are very different from the interests of most fisher boats.

    https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/11/fishing-quota-uk-defra-michael-gove/

  45. Jones in Bangor

    “I fundamentally disagree with that, and I am not wrong. ”

    Except that you are wrong. CAP has been (as Davwel points out) been reformed on a regular basis, to suit changed circumstances.

    You might have meant to say “CAP can never be altered to a system that I like”. That would probably be true, but if you don’t want to have any “bureaucratic” management of food supply, then you are also rejecting what the UK did before CAP, and advocating a wholly free market in food supply in future.

    You should, at least be honest in declaring your support for a revolutionary approach to farming policy.

  46. @Oldnat

    Well if an it is an outcome focused system that delivers for the environment, localised and ethical farming and wildlife, then I am a revolutionary.

    If it is a system that focuses on bureaucratically pretending that everything is just swell, I’d be for the CAP and its pretence of reform.

  47. Interesting new poll from Opinium.

    I ran the same method over Opinium data post GE as You Gov. See below Conservative and Labour VI:

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1sPvk1pUj4emVvbNhCw1k9MTjwaoH3T2v

    1. The graph shapes are pretty much the same, as are the means:

    Yougov Con – 40.62

    Opinium Con – 40.05

    Yougov Lab – 39.91

    Opinium Lab – 40.00

    2. The standard deviations (that affect the control limits) are much different however:

    Yougov Con – 0.855

    Opinium Con – 0.015

    Yougov Lab – 0.916

    Opinium Lab – 0.011

    ———————————————————

    I know YG ignore DKs, and I couldn’t seem to find out if Opinium, or re-allocate them.

    Anyhow, they both show similar trends, but Opinium seems to dampen the magnitude.

    I’d say they are broadly showing similar trends, in particular the Labour VI.

  48. Correction

    Interesting new poll from Opinium.

    I ran the same method over Opinium data post GE as You Gov. See below Conservative and Labour VI:

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1sPvk1pUj4emVvbNhCw1k9MTjwaoH3T2v

    1. The graph shapes are pretty much the same, as are the means:

    Yougov Con – 40.62

    Opinium Con – 40.05

    Yougov Lab – 39.91

    Opinium Lab – 40.00

    2. The standard deviations (that affect the control limits) are much different however:

    Yougov Con – 0.855

    Opinium Con – 1.493

    Yougov Lab – 0.916

    Opinium Lab – 1.120

    ———————————————————

    I know YG ignore DKs, and I couldn’t seem to find out if Opinium, or re-allocate them.

    I’d say they are broadly showing similar trends, in particular the Labour VI.

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