Party conference season is sometimes a period of volatile polling – each party typically gets its own week of media coverage which, if all goes well, they’ll use for some positive announcements. This year it also immediately followed the Salzburg summit and Theresa May’s Brexit statement that followed. Below are the voting intention polls since my last update.

YouGov (18-19th) – CON 40%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 5% (tabs)
Opinium (18-20th Sep) – CON 37%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8% (tabs)
BMG (21st-22nd Sep) – CON 38%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
ICM (21st-24th Sep) – CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
YouGov (24-25th Sep) – CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
ComRes (26-27th Sep) – CON 39%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 5% (tabs)
Opinium (26-28th Sep) – CON 39%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 6% (tabs)
BMG (28-29th Sep) – CON 35%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 5%

They are a mixed bunch – the YouGov poll showing a six point Tory lead got some attention, and I’m sure the BMG poll out this morning showing a five point Labour lead will do much the same. As ever, it’s wrong to pay too much attention to outliers. Normal sample variation means that if the underlying average is a Tory lead of a point or two, random noise will occassionally spit out a 6 point Tory lead or a small Labour lead, without it actually signifying anything. Collectively recent polls don’t suggest a clear impact on voting intention from either the Salzburg statement (while YouGov showed a larger Tory lead, ICM did not), or from the Labour party conference (while BMG show an increased Labour lead, Opinium showed the opposite).


1,527 Responses to “Latest voting intentions”

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  1. @DANNY
    @TREVOR WARNE

    “Boris’s bridges and May’s extra levy on foreign home buyers shows how cr4p CON “ideas” currently are. We don’t need white elephants and tinkering we need to defend a market based economy, tackle the flaws that exist from the “dark side” of capitalism and develop an “evolved” economic model for post Brexit UK.”

    That fascinating, but surely its more the narrative of labour than tory governments? If we did a poll of posters here, how many would believe a conservative administration would deliver as you suggest?

    I have been saying this for ever……TREVOR WARNE is voting tory hoping they will morph into Corbynlite and I personally don’t see it.

    I thought that May and her defence of hostile environment despite the effects was pretty poor. It plays well to her base. COLIN comment loving the comment of Javid saying that labour did not have a monopoly on outrage over the issue ring rather hollow but as he says politics is tribal

    What is does say is that the EU referendum has created the sort of divide that we see in the US and I don’t think it can be fixed. Which is why I fear you see the mess that we have.

    @THE OTHER HOWARD

    I suspect both sides would want planes to fly and the like. I suspect a set of minimum deals to make sure that things don’t go completely pear shaped so I expect planes to fly under some sort of emergency agreement I suspect that would mean UK paying at least 30B euros and most probably paying it sooner than on the never never like the original plan had

    From my admitted one source about the EU position he said that the debate in the EU is not having a no deal is what emergency provisions to have and which to not to have the debate is about the detail not the principle

    In the UK I think we are still arguing asto what the hell is in the cake and we have not reached an agreement as yet. I believe the EU has set out a path for a deal. it is not super canada but canda plain and that is the problem the EU wants that deal because that makes perfect sense to both sides redlines just put the border in the Irish sea and were done as JONESINBANGOR and ALAN have said we already do this we just need to formalise it, I know the DUP won’t like it and the problem you have is no one else likes it because of the implications short and medium term (I am dead in 50 yearand my children will be retiring and the world would be different so no one could argue the long term, hell there could be three countries where there stood one Scotland a reunited Ireland and rump of UK (Lesser Britain???)

    I cannot see any conservative PM accepting that hence May’s comments on not compromising being interesting. Boris’s deal effectively says a border in the Irish sea. JRM thinks that is a good price to pay as I said I think it will be a no deal not because I agree with your views but because your views are thing that make a no deal possible and there is enough of your view in parliament in the Tories to make a no deal happen. May set a set of red lines which she can not hold without saying a no deal she has tried to obfuscate but in the end the WA makes it difficult to do so the obvious and easy way out was broken the moment the exit poll came out in GE2017

    @DANNY

    she cannot get the Tories to remain she never was trying to she was trying to meet the Labour six tests,which are impossible to do as I have said to everybody who voted leave and thinks there is a deal what is the compromise? no one has one…..Even those that support May do not have one either for the EU or the UK.

    As much as I think leaving is wrong, I don’t see an approach or a mechanism that allows us to stay

    The one thing you have right is that I believe May wanted the inject some realism in the approach but basically she has no cards and is basically beholden to the EU to give her a card to play. The problem is that Boris is in the same boat which is why he has not stepped up to the plate. they know that “super” canada with vast numbers of plussess becomes Canada with nothing that helps the UK.

  2. @OldNat

    “Wonder if the Ryder Cup will get a mention at the Tory Conference?”

    It might do on the basis that the ageing membership probably still think it’s the Great Britain and Ireland team competing against the USA and not, as it has been for the last 30 years or so, the European team! When the appalling truth is broken to them, they’ll just pretend the Ryder Cup doesn’t exist! Where is dear old Christy O’Connor when you need him anyway? Alright, we used to get routinely thrashed by the USA back in those halcyon days, but at least we were true Brits then. Alright, a few Irish too, but you know what I mean. Now our team compete at “home” in the nation of cheese-eating surrender monkeys, with players from Italy, Sweden, Spain and Denmark for Gawd’s sake. Time we got out out. The Moggster will sort it when he gets in, I’m sure.

    That BMG poll, with the most up to date fieldwork, showing a 5% Labour lead is very interesting and, being the latest of all the recent polls, will no doubt now form the key media narrative. On the eve of their Conference, the Tories will no longer be “6% ahead in the polls”, they will now be “5% behind in the polls against a resurgent Labour”. I await Andrew Neil’s definitive and updated verdict, as well as screaming headlines in tomorrow’s tabloids! :-)

    I’ve been Ryder Cup and Premiership football TV watching today (I avoided the ghastly pyjama cricket mismatch between Zimbabwe and South Africa, as did most of the locals looking at the meagre crowd), but I did catch May’s interview with Marr just before the golf got underway at 11. As our resident entertainer Trevor Warne would say, partisan bias warning, but I thought it was borderline car crash stuff. The Windrush section of the interview was almost too painful to watch and when Marr briskly wound it up at the end, and the cameras lingered on them both as the credits rolled, the body language between Marr and May was something to behold. He got the frozen death stare and then looked at his feet, his notes, outside the window – anywhere to avert her gaze. Extraordinary stuff.

    One little postscript. I went to see Corbyn in Redditch yesterday. More out of curiosity than reverence. I’m not a great fan of him politically, as those who have read my posts over the years will know, but his party got my vote in 2017 and will likely do so again, even if he remains its leader. There was a large and almost exclusively adoring crowd of about 500 crammed around the bandstand in Church Green, right in the town centre, and this was almost as many as those who had attended the John “Bonzo” Bonham (legendary ex Led Zep and Redditch born drummer) memorial concert the Saturday before. Jezza couldn’t quite compete with the Steve Gibbons band but he did have a little backing ensemble on hand, repeatedly playing the “Oh, Jeremy Corbyn” chant ad infinitum (or ad nauseam for some!). It was a good humoured and friendly gathering, disturbed briefly by a few EDL and pro-Israel (??) demonstrators.

    My thoughts and observations? Let’s start with the negatives. There was a slightly uneasy feel of a personality cult about some of the worshipping that went on, and when he turned up 20 minutes late, many pressed forward, Jesus like, just to touch him or to shake his hand. Some of it was just on the wrong side of adoration for me as opposed to moderate affection, although there was plenty of that too. He also remains a pretty wooden public speaker and his speech was more sloganeering and shouting than inspirational oratory. I’d also heard the content a few times before, albeit on TV rather than in person.

    But here’s the rub, even for a Corbyn agnostic like me, and it might go some way to explaining his success on the stump in the 2017 GE. He has a definite, almost counter-intuitive/anti-hero, charisma and personal charm about him. I watched him work the crowd who mobbed him as he arrived. He is clearly a very nice and likeable man who people instinctively warm to. He’s gawky and definitely un-smooth, but he’s authentic and connects with people of all ages, from the kids who lined him up for selfies to the elderly people who regaled him with shouts of “Good Luck Jeremy” wherever he went. In many ways it was a shambolic gathering, not helped by the local Labour candidate, Rebecca Jenkins, having to cry off because of a bad back, and I’m not sure what the purpose of it all was. I don’t think Corbyn was too.

    But one thing I did pick up, and it’s the first time I’ve seen Corbyn in the flesh, is that he possesses a bit of campaigning magic and that people like him when they meet him. The old boy spreads a feelgood factor wherever he goes. Those who loathe him and his politics will gainsay this no doubt, but I got a taste of it yesterday. I’ve seen many politicians on the stump in my time, Blair, Foot, Thatcher, Wilson, Callaghan, Benn and many others, and Corbyn’s right up there with them. The key thing is that it’s very clear that he enjoys it and is honing his skills.

    Abilities not to be underestimated.

  3. @CROSSBAT11

    Corbyn did well at the husting not because he was authentic but to my mind he actually had a plan. it may not have made any sense but there was no alternative given by the moderates indeed what has surprised me is that the moderates still don’t have a plan. Indeed the Instead of the Moderates coming up with an alternative plan they have clung on to europe something they have never tried to sell in the past (which is why we are in the position we are in now)

    I think the reality is that Corbyn is the best option for change or even exploring the change.

    As to the May interview My mothers friend has been caught up in this indeed this week has been somewhat sobering for my Mum. she retired a Midwifery sister after 45 years of working. I remember that see all of them retiring that in newham General at the time all the Sisters 8 of them were black and all the Senior Nursing officers were white I pointed out to my mum about the situation she said yes it does seem obvious but now the NHS own data points to black NHS workers getting lower pay across the board. I remember one of my mum friend getting promoted to Senior Nursing officer when I congratulated her she was rather scathing her word were don’t let this happen to you. Windrush for my mum friend (yes another retired midwifery sister still has her original British passport but was threatened with deportation when she applied for a passport to go go on holiday with my mum and their retied nursing friends. Most everyone thought at first it was stupid mixup and then we heard about people actually being deported.

    I am not sure that your average 70+ year old west indian or west african born retiree from the NHS is core Tory vote but May’s answers will not get them putting an X in the conservative candidate box judging by my Mum’s reaction. But as COLIN said politics is tribal.

    I sat next to John Smith on a flight to Edinburgh, I have to admit even the FT though he was a good leader, I thought that Ed Miliband was sold by the press as a wonk but I believe he had sound policies and had an understanding of the problems. For the Tories I met Douglas Hurd and Norman Tebbit. I think that tebbit said some sage words he said the electorate were tribal and basically they did not study policy that was left to the politicians and so what they wanted to believe is that you were on their side agreed with their prejudices and that having them were alright. Hurd told me the story of regulation and the EU and how we often used it regulation to defend our industries but sell it to the voter that we are cutting regulation.

    I never met Charles Kennedy but I think he would be turning in his grave over what has happened to the LDEMs

  4. I want the bridge built and paid for by English taxpayers followed by Scottish and NI independence.

  5. eotw: I want the bridge built and paid for by English taxpayers followed by Scottish and NI independence.

    In an ideal world, they would have started 40 years ago and it would just be coming to fruition now, in which case, I would like your idea.

    But given it has not started yet, I’ll settle for Indy now.

  6. EOTW

    You want the bridge built by English taxpayers? I suppose, after Brexit, you’ll need to employ the poor buggers doing something or another.

    I’d rather see any civil engineering project done by workers who actually know what they’re doing.

  7. EOTW,

    “I want the bridge built and paid for by English taxpayers followed by Scottish and NI independence.”

    In a sense it would have to be or would do.

    With significant numbers in Scotland & NI less than keen on “Strengthening the Union” and both with proportional systems, getting either to give up popular local projects to pay for the Link would be a hard sell.

    In Scotland even Unionists might struggle to explain why Holyrood wasn’t going to build the popular local bypass or bridge because Westminster wanted a Bridge to Ireland.

    As for Stormont, by law the republican minority must be part of the executive that would need to agree the spending…

    No easy task, especially as one side would be far more supportive of using far less money to upgrade the Belfast to Dublin road from Dual Carriageway to Motorway!

    Peter.

  8. Peter

    Also the Belfast to Derry road and rail links.

  9. I see the essay writers are out in force tonight (TL:DR). I’ll just repeat my friend’s instant solution to the Irish border problem. We won’t have a hard border. If they want to put one on their side that’s up to them.

  10. Pete B

    If your friend understood WTO rules, then that might have influenced his/her thinking – or even caused her/him to actually think what that means.

  11. NEILJ

    “The Bridge to Northern Ireland would be 25 miles long”
    Any idea of the exact plans, if there are any?

    We’re talking about Boris here, I suspect it was something he thought about 5 minutes before it came out of his mouth:-)

    Or being Boris five minutes after. Actually the idea has been floating around for a lot of this year:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Isles_fixed_sea_link_connections#2018_Revival

    with Boris vaguely involved and the Scottish Government making encouraging sounds[1]. Admittedly they’ve got a more successful record in bridge construction than Boris recently[2], but then so has anyone who ever put a plank over a stream.

    The proposed route seems to be Portpatrick to Larne, with Portpatrick having the disadvantage of not being near anywhere and Larne having the disadvantage of being Larne[3]. As with most things Boris-related, it’s about gesture not practicality and it’s difficult to see what the Great Dalriadan Bridge[4] would be for. There just seems to be a pious belief that it would generate more traffic, but the ferry route to Cairnryan only does 65,000 pax a year and it’s a long way for freight to detour. Of course such stuff does get built all the time (look at China), but that doesn’t mean it should be.

    [1] Mainly you suspect because the Scottish end would be in the Minister’s constituency.

    [2] Unless you define ‘successful’ as giving your mates lots of taxpayer cash in return for ‘intangibles’.

    [3] Viewers in Northern Ireland may insert their own joke.

    [4] Technically neither end would have been in the ancient Kingdom if they use the more southern route above.

  12. Good evening all from a rather mild Winchester, capital of England.

    DAVWEL
    Once more Theresa May has been spinning the myth that her farRight Chequers proposal is the only plan on the table.

    She has clearly shown a deaf ear to SNP`s oft-repeated plan of a compromise, that the UK stays in the Single Market and Customs Union.

    When the 2016 referendum was purely advisory, and David Cameron promised that the votes in each polity would be respected by the UK government, it would be absolute folly to ignore the most decisive vote recorded in June 2016, the 62/38% vote for Remain in Scotland.

    Unless the UK government makes major steps towards respecting the democratic votes, such as allowing different policies on immigration for Scotland and NI, there will be big trouble and civil disobedience. Many people are simmering.
    _____________

    I too wish the UK government would make some concessions towards Scotland on the back of Brexit and show some goodwill towards the Scottish government who are between a rock and a hard place with regards to Brexit , however, a couple of points.
    ………
    “Unless the UK government makes major steps towards respecting the democratic votes, such as allowing different policies on immigration for Scotland and NI, there will be big trouble and civil disobedience. Many people are simmering”
    ……….

    Absolute tripe…I’ve been back up to Scotland numerous times since the Brexit result and I also still follow Scottish politics very closely and I’ve not detected any simmering civil disobedience.

    Both my parents voted remain as did most of my mates and work colleagues and I don’t detected any simmering civil disobedience from them.

    Onto Northern Ireland… Yes they voted to remain (55.8%) but any tinkering with the Brexit result in that part of the UK is more likely to cause civil disobedience due to the sensitive political nature in the province.

    Any special treatment there and the tambourine headbangers of the DUP will scream it’s a conspiracy to forming a United Ireland by stealth.

    ” civil disobedience”

    To quote a favorite Alex Salmond word.

    “BLUSTER”

  13. Allan Christie

    “due to the sensitive political nature in the province.”

    Of course, “Northern Ireland” isn’t one of the Irish provinces – that would be Ulster (of which the 6 counties are only a part).

    Mind you, it’s hard to find an accurate term (well one that is repeatable on here) for the odd constitutional status that those 6 counties enjoy (though “enjoy” in that context is inaccurate for around half the population).

    “Land enclave of the UK” is probably technically the most accurate after the “Ulster” Unionists rapidly realised that keeping all 9 counties in the UK would see them rapidly outnumbered) and thus ditched a third of the province.

  14. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    Having read it I have to say this report is at least much more believable, than the doom and gloom stuff from many prominent Remainers, and is in tune with much of my own view of the economic future outside the EU if we leave properly.

    I have no doubt that both leaver and remainer will pick reports that suit their narrative. I would go with what is actually happening and the level of uncertainty.

    My view of the Plan A+ was that in itself it was not self consistent. he decided a set of outcomes his data did not show and hence the argument about the report. You may chose to believe his outcomes as they are a prediction but his own model does not predict that outcomes he says it does.

    That is why it is questioned. You can say that the models produced by the treasury are wrong but they are consistent with what they say would happen given a set of inputs. This guy’s model does not match his opinions AND it is HIS model so one would have thought he could get that part right.

    So If I chose to believe what he thinks will happen it will be based on faith alone no other metric can be used.

  15. If I was a Tory, I’d be hanging my hat on politicians like Justine Greening in terms of plotting a viable future for the party. I’m becoming ever more impressed with her, certainly since she walked out of the Cabinet at the last reshuffle, and there is no doubt an independent, imaginative and far-sighted mind at work there. Her political antenna seem finely tuned too and she seems to be applying a sober, candid and accurate analysis of where her party is and where it needs to go.

    Speaking at a fringe event at today’s Conference in Birmingham, she said that the problems with social mobility in this country presented “an existential challenge for our party”. She went on to reflect on the fact that it had been 31 years since the Tory party last won a significant Commons majority, under Margaret Thatcher in 1987. I quote: –

    “It is 31 years since we last truly carried the political argument in this country,” she said. “It means we stopped connecting with people a long time ago.”

    When did you last hear a senior Tory politician offer this sort of insight and self-awareness? It seems to me that in order to make progress, an essential pre-requisite is to understand the extent of the problem. That often means contemplating uncomfortable truths. Once that’s done, solutions and a way forward are possible. I think Greening gets this. Not many of her colleagues do, though.

    Self-delusion and bluster, or rubbishing your political opponents, comfort zone behaviours that Greening appears to eschew, rarely plot routes to future success.

  16. PTRP

    ” it will be based on faith alone no other metric can be used.”

    Much like the English bishops being in HoL? No rational reason for them to be there – except faith.

  17. OLDNAT

    Of course, “Northern Ireland” isn’t one of the Irish provinces – that would be Ulster (of which the 6 counties are only a part).

    Mind you, it’s hard to find an accurate term (well one that is repeatable on here) for the odd constitutional status that those 6 counties enjoy (though “enjoy” in that context is inaccurate for around half the population).
    ________________

    You’re absolutely correct with regards to Northern Ireland and I stand corrected.

    Personally I would call it (The occupied territory) of Ireland.

  18. Allan Christie

    The problem with the “occupied territory” label is that it’s occupied by people that the then Tory Government allowed to take control over that tract of land.

    Political decisions taken by weak, or incompetent, governments have a tendency to come back to bite their successors in the bum many years later.

  19. “… with Boris vaguely involved …”
    @Roger Mexico September 30th, 2018 at 10:46 pm

    To be fair isn’t that true of any policy planning apart from for the leadership?

  20. ON (11:02)
    “Of course, “Northern Ireland” isn’t one of the Irish provinces – that would be Ulster (of which the 6 counties are only a part).”

    Oh come on! I know you are the arch-pedant on this board, but you have to admit historical changes. I was born in Warwickshire and moved to what was Worcestershire, but all places I have lived in are now part of the West Midlands County. Long before that they were parts of Mercia, and at one time parts of Powys I believe. There were also ancient Welsh and Scottish kingdoms. I’m not sure where you are in Scotland, but as an example, would you expect someone from Dunfermline to say that they were from the Kingdom of Fife? If so, I despair.
    —————————————————————–
    Allan Christie
    “You’re absolutely correct with regards to Northern Ireland and I stand corrected.

    Personally I would call it (The occupied territory) of Ireland.”

    Though I agree with many of your posts on this board, this one seeems very odd.
    For instance (from Wikipedia)
    “The papal bull Laudabiliter of Pope Adrian IV was issued in 1155. It granted the Angevin King Henry II of England the title Dominus Hibernae (Latin for “Lord of Ireland”). Laudabiliter authorised the king to invade Ireland, to bring the country into the European sphere.”

    While I don’t necessarily agree with papal authority it obviously mattered at the time, and calling Northern Ireland ‘(The occupied territory) of Ireland.’ as you do, is like me saying that England is the occupied territory of England because of the Norman Conquest!

  21. Pete B

    Of course things change over time – but the Irish provinces have been within the same borders for centuries.

    That the UK continues in ownership of part of one of those provinces doesn’t change the provincial boundaries at all.

    However, I’m happy to agree that I prefer accuracy while you choose to have a cavalier disregard for it.

  22. Pete B
    ” is like me saying that England is the occupied territory of England because of the Norman Conquest!”

    Tut! It would be more like you saying that “England is the occupied territory of Brittania because of the invasion by the Angles”.

    That would still be nonsense of course, because it would omit the later occupations of part of what is now the English polity by later peoples.

    As to papal bulls, one divided the New World between Spain and Portugal. Of more relevance to NI is that Pope Innocent XI blessed (and more importantly) funded William of Orange and (along with other leaders of the League of Augsburg) celebrated William’s victory at the Boyne.

  23. The bridg to Crimea is 19 kilometers long, was built in just four years and cost just three billion euros to build. Actually there are two of them side by side, one is a railway bridge.

  24. Meanwhile our science is somewhat on the slide – something which is probably Brexit related and would become very serious in the event of no deal, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06781-8

  25. United Nations peace keeping troops put on standby to attend a conference in Birmingham this week !

    David Cameron sitting in his gypsy caravan in the grounds of his country house after getting evicted by Samantha, watches on his portable TV, as the party he once led, continues to throw soundbites at each other. Cameron smiles as he hears “spreadsheet Phil” having a go at his old enemy Boris.

    That 2016 referendum to heal the party divides on Europe have really worked wonders and whatever the outcome of negotiations with the EU, the party will all happily work together for the country.

    Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU negotiation team sit around a 100″ 4k HD TV enjoying the drama series taking place in Birmingham. Between outbreaks of laughter, there are bewildered faces trying to work out ‘whodunnit’ ? Who wrote the Chequers document ? A document that has finally united the Tory party !

  26. Oldnat,
    “has there been a similar situation previously when both parties that have pretensions to forming the UK are so bitterly (and publicly) divided?”

    I dont know, but the only reason they are divided is the same reason why a new party might get suport. But as soon as the one issue becomes resolved, the party divisions disappear and the new party goes the same way as UKIP.

    If we now leave the EU, i can see rejoin being a voter magnet, but not sufficient in itself. I could see it bringing a real boost to the libs if labour do not adopt it themselves, might just get libs up to second place. It is much harde to see a party starting from cold reaching such a position.

  27. Passtherockplease,
    “she cannot get the Tories to remain”

    Well no, but her task has never been to move the tory party anywhere, but to be its spokesman. They want to remain, and that is why they chose a remainer as leader.

    Of course there are three groups here calling themselves tories. The MPs. the party members. the voters. The MPs want to remain. The voters want to leave, and of concern is that many are likely not otherwise very attached to the label tory. The members seem to want to leave, but to a degree they are showing loyalty to the official party line.

  28. Mrs SDA’s Mateus Rose was £5 a bottle virtually everywhere on RefEU day in 2016.

    Shortly thereafter it rose to £5.49 in most stores except Sainsburys, where it remained at a fiver.

    Last week Ocado increased their price to £5.89. That’s an 18% increase in under two years, about 10% a year. Is this an isolated instance, or an indicator for the future?

  29. “Of course there are three groups here calling themselves tories. The MPs. the party members. the voters.”
    @danny October 1st, 2018 at 8:49 am

    Where do the party donor’s stand? I imagine their voice is particularly weighty.

  30. “That’s an 18% increase in under two years, about 10% a year. Is this an isolated instance, or an indicator for the future?”
    @Steamdrivenandy October 1st, 2018 at 8:52 am

    Brexit means Brexit.
    Leave means Leave.
    Red, white and blue Brexit.
    The people have spoken.
    We won, you lost.
    Rule Britannia, Britannia rules the waves…
    No Surrender [opps, sorry, wrong list]

    Does that answer your question? At least that’s how everything was answered on The Week in Westminster last night.

  31. JIMJAM
    “Just for accuracy, McDonnell corrected himself later and his comments were before the conference resolution was passed so technically not inaccurate but an opinion that was superseded.”

    The difference between us is that I don’t think for a moment that Corbyn or McDonnell want to stay in the EU, nor do I think there is any likelihood of a second referendum, especially one where remain was an option.

    PTRP
    Since you kindly responded to my posts I will reply.

    We differ on our reasons for expecting “No Deal” and I agree with some of your opening paragraph but not the £30B, the figure would be much less. I would guess our legal liabilities at 8-11B and payment spread over many years.

    We can also agree on Canada type deal is possible but for me only with a proper border. I agree with May that the EU suggestion of a border in the North Sea is totally unacceptable.

    On the IEA report we just beg to differ, all I think is, as I said in a subsequent post, that his outcomes are more believable than all the doom and gloom. I did not comment on how he got to his outcomes, if my original wording suggested I did then I hope I have cleared it up. As I said I think all projections I have read so far of what happens after Brexit are flawed and influenced by the views of the author or authors.

    Charles
    “Meanwhile our science is somewhat on the slide – something which is probably Brexit related and would become very serious in the event of no deal”

    If you will read Remainer opinions only, then you will get doom and gloom. My son is a Professor of Immunology and does not think Brexit will have any great effect on research in this country. He voted Remain but has subsequently changed his mind due to what he sees as the undemocratic behaviour of those still lobbying to remain.

    Signing off now have a good week all.

  32. crossbat11,
    “That BMG poll, with the most up to date fieldwork, showing a 5% Labour lead is very interesting ”

    Theres nothing new about different companies having different systematic biases. But any thoughts what might be causing it? Is there anything about the unusual current circumstances (one issue domination), which might not be getting properly represented in sample normalisation?

    Passtherockplease,
    “I am not sure that your average 70+ year old west indian or west african born retiree from the NHS is core Tory vote but May’s answers will not get them putting an X in the conservative candidate box”

    My recollection is polling on the windrush affair showed it did no harm to the tories. Tories liked the idea of cracking down on west indian retirees. I think my dad (deceased now) would have been with them. Nothing personal, just they dont belong here. Not what we fought for, and all that.

    Its OK to be out and proud as a tory who supports leave. Less so if its supporting settled immigrants leave, but that has been woven into Brexit mythology.

  33. Sorry, I meant The Westminster Hour. Anne-Marie Trevelyan. It was embarrassing.

  34. @Danny

    “Theres nothing new about different companies having different systematic biases. But any thoughts what might be causing it? Is there anything about the unusual current circumstances (one issue domination), which might not be getting properly represented in sample normalisation?”

    I was being slightly tongue-in-cheek by referring to that BMG poll because, as with the earlier YouGov poll showing a Tory 6% lead, people will cherry-pick polls that suit their partisan interests. Accordingly, I was doing likewise and pretending that a poll showing a 5% Labour lead was now the definitive one! My other point was a more serious one and that is how isolated, probably outlier, opinion polls can form a media narrative. The YouGov 6% Tory lead was quoted extensively on both TV and in print. I speculated whether the BMG 5% Labour lead would be similarly quoted. I think we all know it won’t.

    Coming to your main point, I think we have to take an average of polls to get something like the overall picture, smoothing out potential rogues and outliers like the YouGov and BMG polls. That current average points to level-pegging between the Tories and Labour; a position that has been consistent more or less since May 2017. While Brexit remains just a variety of potential outcomes, and dominates our political agenda, I expect the stasis to continue. Few voters are breaking cover yet until Brexit becomes a reality. When it does, I think opinion will shift violently.

    As to why we get YouGov and BMG outliers, I suspect sampling errors and MOE are the key reasons, but I defer to psephologists like Mr Wells and Roger Mexico (and Chris Lane 1945!!) for the expert analysis.

    Of course, if we suddenly get a splurge of polls showing Labour 5% ahead, then things may well have changed, but I very much doubt it. Expect the next YouGov to have the Tories 8% ahead!

    :-)

  35. Mind you, I know that Mateus Rose is really made in an ex-vodka factory shed in Warrington, whereas Mrs SDA thinks it comes from Portugal.

  36. The Other Howard,
    “The difference between us is that I don’t think for a moment that Corbyn or McDonnell want to stay in the EU, ”

    I dont think the tories want to leave the EU. Funny how things turn out.

    ” the figure would be much less”

    and Pete B
    ” We won’t have a hard border. ”

    I dont think leavers accept the EUs position. The EU are remainers (by definition) and view the negotiations as would UK remainers. If leavers want to understand what they EU will do, they would do better seeking the views of remainers!

    Best outcome for the EU is Uk remains. Worst case is Uk has a special deal. The Uk can have norway, or suchlike trade agreement which is operated by the ECJ on behalf of the signatories to that agreement, which in reality would be the Uk on the one part, and the 27 other sovereign nations of the EU on the other part. A no deal outcome is the neutral option for the EU. Since it is the default outcome, then its obvious the EU will not agree a special deal for the Uk, which would be worse for them than no deal.

    For any sort of deal, the Uk will have to pay, and the amount has been pretty much worked out. A hard border isnt ideal for ireland, but if the Uk isnt enforcing their side of the border so Irish goods can travel freely into the north and then on to the mainland without hindrance, thats not so bad! Ireland will undoubtedly enforce its side of the border, because it will honour its international commitments.

    How the Uk will fare as a rogue state which does not acknowledge its international commitments under the WTO, after making a total mess of negotiations with the EU and seeking to escape payments, etc, from that international agreement, will be interesting to see.

  37. Al urqua,
    “Where do the party donor’s stand”

    i suspect, with the MPs.

  38. @ Roger Mexico

    Thanks for the wikipedia link about the Irish bridge options. Having experienced the road route to Stranraer I was certainly aware of the problems there, but I hadn’t realised the rail links were so poor too. OK, upgrading road and rail is probably peanuts compared to the bridge, but still a necessary part of the project, and potentially doing environmental damage to a rather stunning landscape. I think, sometime in the fairly distant future, this might be an interesting project, but if there’s that much money available to spend on rail infrastructure, I suspect it could be better spent elsewhere.

    I like the brief mention of the Kintyre route:

    “North Channel (Kintyre) route
    This is the shortest route at around 19 km (12 mi), from the Mull of Kintyre to County Antrim.”

    No further comment is necessary. It is patent lunacy. I’ve often seen Kintyre from the north coast – clear days do actually happen from time to time. It looks stunning, and surprisingly close, would love to visit one day.

  39. If we leave the EU what will the parties positions be afterwards.

    I can see the Tories becoming the ‘don’t go there ever again party’ and the LibDems the ‘let’s get back in asap party’ but where would Labour stand? They like the workers rights and a lot of the regulations and standards sit well with their ethos but they also don’t like the lack of freedom to throw money at potentially failing businesses and restrictions on nationalisation. Seems like they’d remain indeterminate.

  40. OLDNAT

    You might be interested in this review of the literature concerning the Northern Ireland Troubles. It is old (but beautiful) and still relevant, I think

    http://www.tara.tcd.ie/bitstream/handle/2262/68850/v9n41978_1.pdf;sequence=1

    You and Pete B might be interested in this.

    http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/2784/1/religionclayton1.pdf

  41. @ PTRP – and I’ve been agreeing with you for ages!!

    Not all voters are “tribal”. I had HOPED that Brexit would force CON to “evolve”. Parts of it want to change but not yet the “critical mass” and specifically not yet in the two most important positions: leader and CoE.

    It currently looks like they want to try to continue with the old flawed model and rip themselves apart in the process. No way Chuquers is approved by EC and no way it will be approved by HoC either. May is limping from week to week with a brick wall ahead of her.

    If CON allow her and her team to c0ck Brexit and Project After up then they are not fit to govern and deserve to be kicked out.

    I’m sure you’ve seen the highlights from Hammond’s speech already – stealing one tiny policy from LAB!!! Thats it. With everything going on that is his one headline grabbing policy!!

    FFS, how useless is that guy (and his boss for keeping him).

    A lot of leavers view:
    May + Chequers = Corbyn

    but the even more disturbing issue will be:
    Hammond = McDonnell

    @ DANNY – My point is the whole idea of “Frankenstein twin” as a model is bonkers. That’s the kind of back-fit analysis that gave birth to NINJA loans, Northern Rock business model and the whole financial crisis.

    The UK economy is the UK economy and within HMG’s control to improve it or wreck it (a la Venezuela). UK will sometimes track other economies for sure but if you try to find it’s “Frankenstein twin” via back testing then by changing the body parts and the time horizon you’ll create very different “Frankensteins” depending on what story you want to tell.

    The issue with the “lost” growth over the last 2+yrs (I’d go for 40+yrs myself) is whether or not it is permanent or recoverable (e.g. is the lack of investment a backlog or will it never be invested, is the lack of housing and construction spending a backlog, etc)

    HMG policy in different scenarios can definitely make a difference. It is time to end laissez faire ne0liberalism. “Tracking” other economies like a lost yacht in a great ocean is a sh1t plan – the other ships want to win and will happily steal our cargo (jobs and businesses) and even sink UK if it helps their economies or their politicial project.

    If CON don’t see this and are unable to change then they deserve to be kicked out.

    If your up for some cherry picking PR from Team Leave give this a read:
    https://brexitcentral.com/projectcheer/

    It’s factually correct but obviously only picks the cherries they want Leavers to eat – hardly surprising given the source!

  42. @Steamdrivenandy

    Your Mateus Rose anecdote reminds me of a family camping holiday we had in Portugal in 1966. I was 10 and my brother 13, so non-drinkers back then, but our parents enjoyed a little glass or two of wine, Mateus Rose being a particular favourite. On our first day, Dad purchased a bottle from the camp site shop. It lasted a couple of days and he duly returned and bought a replacement bottle. This cycle was repeated until, after the first week, the friendly Portuguese shopkeeper raised up a bottle of Mateus Rose whenever my Dad entered the shop, irrespective of whether he wanted to buy one or not. “Ah, Mr Mateus Rose man” he would say, “You like to buy a bottle, yes?”. Dad then forever became “Mr Mateus Rose man”as an ongoing family joke even though I’m not sure he ever drank it again after that holiday! Great shaped bottle, though.

    I also remember my Dad recounting a little story about his visit to the camp site barber on that holiday. He wanted a wet shave and the barber, another friendly local but with little English, duly lathered him up and reclined the barber’s chair in preparation. Once Dad was fully reclined, he noticed a photograph of the Portuguese national football team positioned directly above him on the ceiling. He also noticed the barber rather ominously sharpening his large cut-throat razor blade, now hovering only inches above him. Remembering that England had eliminated Portugal in the World Cup semi-final a little earlier that summer, Dad began to feel a little nervous. Just before the barber descended with his blade, he noticed that Dad had seen the team photograph and asked, “You think England a little lucky when beating Portugal?”. Dad fully agreed, adding that he felt Portugal were by far the best team in the tournament!”

    The shave continued without further dramas!

    :-)

  43. @ OLDNAT – “If your friend understood WTO rules..

    I’ve asked this several times before but as you brought it up!

    1/ Please specify the WTO rules that would enforce UK side to impose additional customs checks on NI border (or in Dover for that matter)
    2/ Please highlight any WTO case law that is relevant (ie where a country has left a CU and experienced a similar situation)
    3/ Please highlight the retaliation measures that another country could take if they didn’t like the UK’s unilateral approach to an “open border” for goods (in NI or Dover) and how that might escalate (being specific about the goods, tariffs and/or NTBs that would come into play)

    From a practical perspective the ‘no deal’ plans have already mentioned we will unilaterally recognise EU standards and not need to impose additional checks (these plans have an implicit “sunset” clause as UK parliament will again become sovereign on these matters).

    I’m happy to accept we might simply be buying ourselves some time.

    However, it will force RoI/EC to reciprocate, or not. For sure they might impose a “harder” border than currently exists – but we won’t be doing anything new at 11:00:01pm on 29Mar’19. If RoI/EC don’t harden the border then that “de facto” continuation could become “de jure” via a bilateral “Le Touquet+” agreement between RoI and UK.
    It will mean EC granting RoI a modest amount of “special status” which they will obviously be very unwilling to do.

    P.S. It is also worth rementioning that the EU haven’t been compliant with WTO for over a decade. They’ve finally just caught up to being EU25.

    P.P.S. More for others. ERG’s NI plan was approved by DUP. Boris and IEA’s Plan A+ were not. I doubt any of them would be approved by EC but you have to ask in order to be turned down – politically that is very important!

  44. Bill White of Lucid Talk has a piece in the Irish Times. He explains the changes in opinion toward a united Ireland though the point has not been reached for a “border poll”.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/polls-suggest-gradual-shift-to-united-ireland-1.3645214

  45. Posted earlier re NI bridge compared to Crimea bridge, but it has got lost in moderation.

    Kerch Strait in the Crimea is a maximum of 18 metres deep.

    Beaufort’s deep (Changed word fort mods) in the North Channel is up to 300 metres deep and has a million tonnes of explosive and some Nuclear waste at the bottom of it.

    I would imagine constructing a bridge in the North Atlantic gales that come though that part of the world would be “fun”

  46. crossbat11: “It is 31 years since we last truly carried the political argument in this country,” she [Justine Greening] said. “It means we stopped connecting with people a long time ago.”

    When did you last hear a senior Tory politician offer this sort of insight and self-awareness?

    Some years ago, I seem to remember one of their number saying that they were getting a bit of a reputation as the Nasty Party. But I don’t think anyone in a position to do anything about it took a blind bit of notice.

  47. @PTRP

    “What is does say is that the EU referendum has created the sort of divide that we see in the US and I don’t think it can be fixed.”

    A proportional election system would fix it I think, partly by creating more divisions, splitting the main two parties in the process (which is why of course neither of them will ever support such a thing).

    Part of the way the division is reinforced in the US is because people end up attached to the ‘least worst’ option.

  48. TREVOR W

    You are right – and wrong.

    The WTO does not tell countries what to do other than to keep their promises (abide by the WTO agreements and their WTO commitments)
    Even when countries break their WTO promises, there is no “confrontation” with “the WTO” and least of all with “WTO officials”
    The WTO is member-driven. If in the future other WTO countries believe the UK is violating an agreement, it is they, not the WTO bureaucracy, who will act. They can do so by complaining in a WTO meeting or filing a legal challenge in WTO dispute settlement
    Since there is no WTO rule requiring governments to secure their borders, failing to do so would not break any specific agreement
    Where the UK might run into trouble is under the WTO’s non-discrimination rules, particularly “most-favoured-nation” treatment (MFN), which means treating one’s trading partners equally
    Suppose the UK and EU trade on WTO terms after Brexit. Suppose American apples arriving in the UK at an English port have to go through controls, but Irish apples crossing the border into Northern Ireland (also the UK) do not. Then the US could complain that its apples were discriminated against. They weren’t given equal treatment with Irish apples when they entered the UK.

    MFN

    Most-favoured-nation (MFN) treatment is probably the most important WTO rule.It means not discriminating between one’s trading partners

    • Article 1 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), for trade in goods
    • Article 2 of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS)
    • Article 4 of the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS)

    But in each agreement the principle is handled slightly differently

    The US might seek a legal ruling in WTO dispute settlement. Months or years later, the ruling might conclude that the UK had discriminated. So either checks at the English ports would have to be dropped, or checks at the Irish border would have to be set up.

    In other words, while no WTO rule actually says the UK will have to set up border checks, the non-discrimination rule may force it to.

    https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/07/18/does-the-wto-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/

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