Party conference season is sometimes a period of volatile polling – each party typically gets its own week of media coverage which, if all goes well, they’ll use for some positive announcements. This year it also immediately followed the Salzburg summit and Theresa May’s Brexit statement that followed. Below are the voting intention polls since my last update.

YouGov (18-19th) – CON 40%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 5% (tabs)
Opinium (18-20th Sep) – CON 37%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8% (tabs)
BMG (21st-22nd Sep) – CON 38%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
ICM (21st-24th Sep) – CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
YouGov (24-25th Sep) – CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
ComRes (26-27th Sep) – CON 39%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 5% (tabs)
Opinium (26-28th Sep) – CON 39%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 6% (tabs)
BMG (28-29th Sep) – CON 35%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 5%

They are a mixed bunch – the YouGov poll showing a six point Tory lead got some attention, and I’m sure the BMG poll out this morning showing a five point Labour lead will do much the same. As ever, it’s wrong to pay too much attention to outliers. Normal sample variation means that if the underlying average is a Tory lead of a point or two, random noise will occassionally spit out a 6 point Tory lead or a small Labour lead, without it actually signifying anything. Collectively recent polls don’t suggest a clear impact on voting intention from either the Salzburg statement (while YouGov showed a larger Tory lead, ICM did not), or from the Labour party conference (while BMG show an increased Labour lead, Opinium showed the opposite).


1,527 Responses to “Latest voting intentions”

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  1. Thanks Anthony.

    All appears within margin of error of Con 39, Lab 38, LD 10, UKIP 5, Gn 3.

    As I said on the previous thread, just as it ended, my graph of monthly polling averages shows Lab and LD as mirror images since April and Con and UKIP similarly since June. Movements are small but, if Lab are losing a trickle of voters to LD while Con are not losing any more to UKIP, I would expect Con to open up a slightly larger gap over Lab unless conference goes pear-shaped again.

  2. Agree with Baz really.

    I suspect that May could have a strong Conference, probably on a promise of jam tomorrow. Whether any progress is sustained and not immediately undone by Boris and Co is another matter.

  3. @ BazinWales

    “All appears within margin of error of Con 39, Lab 38, LD 10, UKIP 5, Gn 3.”

    Agreed. Also if you average the two obvious outliers in each direction (BMG and latest YouGov) you get very much the same result.

    Don’t know which way the conference will go. Perhaps you’re right JiB, May can win on the publicity side this time, but I think it’ll be all about appearances and very little substance. It’s very difficult to see anyone winning on substance right now.

  4. Good morning all from a cloudy Winchester.

    The average polling for the Lib/Dems in the polls above is 10%. That’s 2.6% up on the 2017 snap election.

    ol Vince hasn’t made the impact many Dems were hoping for and after his exotic spresums speech, any party bounce was quickly snuffed out by the journals at Viz.

    Theresa May will be hoping this time around she doesn’t start coughing and spluttering during her speech and also the conference surroundings don’t start to disintegrate like they did last time.

  5. I predict another fiasco at Tory conference this week. Not in the same way as last year though, more to do with divisions in the cabinet.

  6. Clearly a couple of outliers, otherwise polling at neck-and-neck. Not good for Labour who should be polling significantly ahead at this point in the electoral cycle, notwithstanding all the other challenges facing the Government which they should be, but are failing to exploit. So plenty of surveys, but little to report, with the Government averaging approx 40 (35-42) and Labour approx 38 (36-40), which is borne out by the latest polling intention data in the right of the screen.

  7. In a normal political year this inter-conference clutch of polls should represent the peak position for the opposition and here we have the most lacklustre Tory government of the last 50 years with the worst leader in the last 100 enjoying a one point lead.

    My feeling is, whoever changes leader first will romp home in the next GE.

  8. It’s best to wait for polls taken taken at least a week after the final conference.

    Readers will note that over period of only 4 days the polls varied between a Tory lead of 6%, a Labour lead of 5% and the Lib Dems between gyrating between 9% and 12%.

    Over a period of one day UKIP is supposed to have fallen from 8% to 4%.

    These huge variations in such short spaces of time highlight the limitations of Opinion Polls in measuring political opinion on complicated subjects when the public have not been actually asked to make any decisions, and are not focusing on the debate.

    The Tory Party Conference is yet to come and polls can be affected day to day during the season either to strengthen or weaken the party whose Conference is on. So the Tory position will either strengthen or weaken depending on how their Conference goes.

    My guess is that by the end of October the small Tory lead will be confirmed.

  9. Depends who for of course, Andrew.

    Would McDonnell do any better than Corbyn or Johnson or Javid better than May?

  10. One possibly significant figure that appears in these polls is a finding by YOUGOV that a higher percentage of people who voted Tory in 2017 are staying with the Tories than are those who voted Labour.

    This might suggest that the 2017 General Election understated the underlying resilience of Tory support but overstated Labour support (possibly) because in 2017 some people expected the Tories to win easily and Labour to lose.

    What it also might tends to show is that as people age they move away from Labour. Someone, for example, who was a student or a new Graduate in 2017 and was willing to vote Labour might have changed already.

    They will of course however have been replaced by someone who want 18 in 2017.

    This would however give the lie to the absurd claim by some Remainers and Socialists that as old people die they will somehow win. They appear oblivious to the fact that we all age, and that the age profile of the electorate is moving against them.

    There also appears to be some suggestion in these polls that the public’s perception of Mrs May (which was the Tories big unexpected shortcoming in 2017) is becoming more positive.

    If she does manage to pull off this Chequers proposal for Brexit, or even ‘Blind Brexit’, it will surely rise further because she will, it appears have done so by her own force of will.

    In summary (so far at least) there’s not too much bad news for the Tories in the Polls and they’re not great news for Corbyn either. These figures taken as a whole are a fairly good showing for a party in Government, and certainly much better they might have expected this time last year.

    And they’re much better than any Governing Party in Europe are managing.

    The Budget is on October 29th and I expect that to be an uneventful affair. There’s no pressing need to do anything, the unpopularity if which would last more than a few days, or to do anything popular but costly either. Keep the bribes for later.

    Following that however we might start seeing seismic changes depending on what happens with Brexit.

  11. CMJ
    Thanks for the updated tables.

    Same trends as we’re seen up to the 2017 GE so obviously we should be careful about overinterpreting them.

    However for Allan’s benefit we can extrapolate the trend over the last few months to predict Lib Dems close to 40% by the 2022 GE, and I am sure Vince will watch Jo Swinson’s victory speech outside no. 10 and think that was a job well done!

  12. Colin

    Sorry for taking time to reply a 7 hr time difference sometimes gets in the way.
    Re Boris he certainly was the darling of Tory party members and still is amongst a certain section of the party.
    However over the last few months his protestations in his newspaper column has begun to cross a line that is becoming unacceptable within the party.
    In his desperation to become leader and to scupper the chequers deal he has begun to personally attack May in the public arena which to many within the party commits the cardina sin of public disloyalty to the PM and in due turn the party.
    It should also be pointed out that except for the hard core brexiteers within the party Boris has little support so under the Tory leadership rules is very unlikely to be leader
    Personally I think May will continue as leader until she decides she’s had enough if nothing else over the last year she has proved a great deal more resilient than the media give her credit for.
    Of course she has been lucky in some ways that the opposition has not made much of an impact on the electorate since 2017 ,in fact if anything they seem to be going slightly backwards ,so her biggest challenge remains brexit not Corbyn or Boris.
    If I was advising her during this conference I would say stick to domestic issues that matter to ordinary people and concentrate on developing new policy ideas and let windbags like Boris and co drone on about brexit.

  13. The interesting plan A+ Report written by Shankar Singham was duly published and was immediately trashed in a piece by Chris Cook, policy editor of BBC’s Newsnight. I must say the Remainers are quick off the mark. Having read it I have to say this report is at least much more believable, than the doom and gloom stuff from many prominent Remainers, and is in tune with much of my own view of the economic future outside the EU if we leave properly. As I have said before, all such forecasts from either Remainer Groups or Leavers are open to criticism, and how you view them depends on one’s own view of Brexit, and what the future holds for the EU.

  14. So, it appears that Labour will support another referendum on the EU or the deal if there is one, which may or may not include an option to remain in the EU. If this statement seems woolly then I am just reflecting the Labour position. Corbyn & McDonnell don’t want to remain, the membership do, but a significant number of Labour voters want to leave. All this demonstrates is that Labour are as split as the Tories. We don’t need another referendum as we know what people voted for. They voted 52/48 for the option on the ballot paper which said ‘Leave’. This was then confirmed by Parliament voting to trigger Article 50with only 17.5% dissenting voices. Clearly leave means leave not staying on in all but name only and on worse terms than now. All this talk of new referenda is so much nonsense IMO. I think Labour have just made it harder for them to win an election, which I think won’t happen until 2022 anyway, and we will be long gone from the EU by then.

  15. There was a new report out which shows that life expectancy has stopped rising in the UK for the first time since 1998. As expected he report gave rise to a chorus of people (mostly the usual left of centre suspects) talking about the terrible Tory cuts to the NHS. I believe that actually spending on the NHS has risen steadily under the Tories.
    I think there is a simpler explanation, as another report by the OECD shows that the UK is the most obese country in western Europe. The OECD report says obesity in the UK has increased by 92% since the 1990s. The report goes on to state in 2016/17, there were 617 thousand admissions in NHS hospitals where obesity was a factor. This is an increase of 18 per cent on 2015/16. The relationship between obesity and Heart disease and cancer, the biggest killers, is well known.

  16. Ronald.
    I agree with you about general voting intention, but on Brexit the best analysis has shown quite convincingly that education level was a much bigger factor than age.
    The participation rate amongst voters over 70 in University was only about 5%, while now it is about 45%. Irrespective of age, graduates voted Remain by a large majority.
    Of course people do not become more intelligent by going to University, but they do mix with a peer group that sees little point in the nation state and a wealth of opportunities from international collaboration.
    These attitudes are unlikely to change as people get older and in 20 years time we will be joining the EU or something like it with only a small % of dissenters..

  17. I was very amused by this on the Guardian website on Wednesday.
    “The EU is intensifying its preparations for a no-deal Brexit amid heightened fears in European capitals that Jeremy Corbyn will order his MPs to vote down any deal struck in Brussels, a leaked document reveals.”

    Will the Labour approach (if you can understand it) actually increases the chances of the Government getting a reasonable deal from the EU? Clearly the EU think that nothing can stop our exit if any deal is struck down which is good news for those of us who just want to leave as quickly as possible.

    Another quote was interesting.
    “According to the leaked document the reality of a no-deal Brexit has also prompted the EU’s member states to go over the head of the European commission and assert their right to take a “political choices” on potential mini-deals with the UK to avoid the worst repercussions of such a scenario, including the grounding of flights between Britain and the EU.”

    Perhaps some of the EU members are worried :-)

    Another quote from the same article was equally amusing.
    The leader of the Greens in the European parliament, Philippe Lamberts, told the Guardian: “I have zero trust in Labour, I am afraid to say. The Labour position is not to do with principles, but about tactical considerations. It is all about getting the government out of power whatever the cost.”

    At least somebody in Europe understands the stance of Labour.

  18. I also saw this on Wednesday:
    “LONDON (Reuters) – As few as 630 UK-based finance jobs have been shifted or created overseas with just six months to go before Brexit, a far lower total than banks said could move after Britain’s surprise vote to leave the European Union, according to a new Reuters survey.
    Many bankers and politicians predicted after the June 2016 referendum that leaving the EU would prompt a mass exodus of jobs and business and deal a crippling blow to London’s position in global finance.
    But as Brexit Day nears, the number of jobs that UK-based financial institutions say they expect to move in the event of a “hard” Brexit was around 5,800, just 500 more than the last survey in March, and with more firms responding. That compares to around 10,000 in the first survey in September 2017.”
    So, the latest forecast is down to 5800 jobs. Remember the first version of Project fear? I expect the 5800 to overstated, in fact I would expect a significant increase in city jobs over the next few years if we leave properly.

  19. Labour policy on Brexit appears to be to vote down any “deal” so ensuring a “no deal” exit from the EU. The conference voted that if an election cannot be achieved by voting the deal down they would press for a new referendum which may or may not include a ”Remain” option, it depends whether you listen to McDonnell or Stamer as to you view of the outcome of that conference vote. I tried to find out what the Labour negotiating strategy is. From what I garnered it is to have “our cake and eat it” and therefore even less likely to find acceptance by the EU. It appears, since May wants to blunder on with “Chequers” despite the rejection by the EU of its plan for trading arrangements post Brexit that we will be leaving on WTO terms on 29th March next year which has been my view for a long time now.

  20. Labour seemed to have a well-orchestrated conference with only the obvious Brexit split causing any fuss in the media, I suspect the Tory conference this week will be very different. It will be interesting to see if either conference makes any difference to polling. As AW says, they usually don’t. Very difficult to read anything into the latest bunch of polls other than the latest YouGOv and BMG both look like outliers.

  21. @ToH
    The standard criticism of economic models (with some validity) is that they are based on assumptions that are open to challenge.

    The difference here, in respect of Shankar Singham’s thesis, is that other economists can’t make a model built to his specification deliver the results he claims – which is essentially suggesting he may just be making it up. Added to which it appears that he hasn’t taken the – normal – step of publishing his model parameters so that they can be reviewed and tested.

    And finally it turns out he is a chemist by trade who retrained as lawyer, with no academic background in economics – all of which makes the ‘academic report’ look very shady indeed…

  22. @ Jim Jam

    That is a very good question. My gut feeling is that JMcD wouldn’t be as popular as JC, Emily Thornberry would be on a par and Kier Starmer would be well ahead but I might be completely wrong. On the Tory side it is less clear. I think BJ and JRM are Marmite figures but I don’t see a clear alternative from the moderate wing. Personally I like James Cleverly, Tom Tugenhut, and at a push, Sajid Javid

    @ Ronald Olden

    I have also been amused by this nonsensical clam that as people grow older and die, Socialism will become the norm and Labour will be in power forever. If this was the case, how did TM manage to gain a 24 point lead in the polls before the 2017 GE was called?

  23. BF;

    Thanks for that rapid and accurate rebuttal of ToH on Singham`s incompetence at modelling.

    That extreme Brexiteers build their case on such shaky economic foundations speaks volumes.

  24. Has Boris completely lost the plot, his latest idea of a bridge between Northern Ireland and the RUK seems right out there. His bridge over the Thames would have cost over £40m, that is only a couple of hundred yards long in relatively shallow water.
    The Bridge to Northern Ireland would be 25 miles long and sometimes in water as deep as 160 metres, heaven knows what that would eventually end up costing

  25. Once more Theresa May has been spinning the myth that her farRight Chequers proposal is the only plan on the table.

    She has clearly shown a deaf ear to SNP`s oft-repeated plan of a compromise, that the UK stays in the Single Market and Customs Union.

    When the 2016 referendum was purely advisory, and David Cameron promised that the votes in each polity would be respected by the UK government, it would be absolute folly to ignore the most decisive vote recorded in June 2016, the 62/38% vote for Remain in Scotland.

    Unless the UK government makes major steps towards respecting the democratic votes, such as allowing different policies on immigration for Scotland and NI, there will be big trouble and civil disobedience. Many people are simmering.

  26. No-one seems to have commented on the trend for Yougov to be out of kilter with most of the other polls or put forward methodological reasons behind it.

    Of course we can point to the 6 point Tory lead as being a likely outlier but none the less they are registering relatively healthy Tory leads over a number of polls. All other polls there is more or less nothing in it even if they may be too infrequent to form a pattern for each separate polling company.

  27. BMG, it’s the one for me.
    IF it proves to be accurate then there is a big fat LD vote for the reds to squeeze, in the event of a snap election of course.

  28. @ NeilJ

    “The Bridge to Northern Ireland would be 25 miles long”

    Any idea of the exact plans, if there are any? The shortest crossing would be from the Mull of Kintyre, I think, but that would be madness as you’d then still have several hours drive (on the Scotish side) to get to, well, anywhere. The obvious option is near Stranraer, but even then you’d still have to spend a lot on improving the A75 through what I recall is rather beautiful countriside.

  29. @ TOH – Brexit is clearly causing some uncertainty and a drop in investment but another factor since the Mayb0tch GE is the genuine risk of Corbyn+McDonnell. Faced with the risk of being “democratised”, paying higher taxers and possibly still being in CU+SM why would companies risk investing in UK when they can move to lower tax or cheaper wage locations and still be able to access UK debt junky consumer’s tariff free!

    For financial services the risks are different. They won’t go to Slovakia or Paris. They’ll go to NY, Singapore, Shanghai, etc.

    I’m not sure if you’ve seen the lengths the French are going to, in order to poach UK businesses. 40yrs late but time we opened our eyes and starting putting UK business and taxpayers first and reciprocate the “poaching” approach of competitor nations.

    @ DANNY (last thread) – I’m sure after 30Mar’19 yourself and many others will be backing LDEM as UKIP in reverse. I just doubt Queen Gina will be the new LDEM leader.

    LDEM have a small advantage over UKIP in that they have a geographic base to build from in S.W.London – I don’t LDEM making much inroads in Midlands, North, S.West or Wales though and in Scotland only 1 of their seats is “safe” (and a bit of an outlier in more ways than one!).

    @ ON / RM (last thread) – Indeed I don’t live in Wales. Welsh Westminster seats are therefore of higher interest to me. IMHO several important differences between Scotland and Welsh independence but from a Westminster future seats and govt perspective it is the issue of “border seats”

    High density of Welsh seats on the English border, very few Scottish seats on the English border.

    From a practical perspective the population density near the border is also important. It would be easier to put up a “hard” border between Scotland and England than between Wales and England.

    @ PLAN A+ – Brexiteers liked the range of ideas in the analysis: everything from the EU “deal” to the reforms that it would allow in UK.

    We’ve gone over the issues of assumptions in models countless times but I note the Remain press have latched on to another one today, I wonder which UKPR Remainer will be first to endorse the CER numbers (sadly ALEC on hols but I’m someone will step in fro him)

  30. Ronald Olden,
    “This might suggest that the 2017 General Election understated the underlying resilience of Tory support but overstated Labour support (possibly) because in 2017 some people expected the Tories to win easily and Labour to lose. ”

    Or it might be much simpler than that. Leavers are happier with the tories progress at delivering leave than remainers are at labour’s progress in delivering remain.

    What I got from the labout conference over future plans to deliver remain, was confusion.

    “What it also might tends to show is that as people age they move away from Labour. ”

    This has been discussed much. An alternative explanation is that people do not change at all. Rather their circumstances change, so they may chang to a party offering more for their new cicumstances. But also, the environment of their youth may have created a lifelong bias, which is however different for successive generations. Thus the current generation of pensioners is anti EU, whereas 50 years ago pensioners were pro EU.

    As I posted before, there seems a lot of evidence people do not much like the parties they vote for.

    The Other Howard,
    “Will the Labour approach (if you can understand it) actually increases the chances of the Government getting a reasonable deal from the EU?”

    Its impossibe to answer your question because, no, I dont understand the approach of either political party, at least in the sense of what their real intentions might be. And then there is the definition of terms like ‘reasonable deal’. If the government negotiates our remaining in the EU on the same terms as before, I would regard that as a reasonable deal. But I think you would not.

  31. Trevor Warne,
    “@ DANNY (last thread) – I’m sure after 30Mar’19 yourself and many others will be backing LDEM as UKIP in reverse. ”

    Ive no idea. It all depends what happens. There is quite a good chance labour will either go remain before we leave, be instrumental in stopping brexit, or be standing for rejoining if we do leave.

    It is not beyond possibility the tories will also be campaigning to rejoin. Politicians hate to step putside the consensus.

  32. @TRIGGUY
    “The Bridge to Northern Ireland would be 25 miles long”
    Any idea of the exact plans, if there are any?

    We’re talking about Boris here, I suspect it was something he thought about 5 minutes before it came out of his mouth:-)

  33. 2mins spare so I’ll rubbish the CER analysis

    Their “£500 million a week worse off due to Brexit” is based on the assumption that UK would have grown twice as fast as it has and that this “lost growth” is all due to Brexit.

    They base this on a doppelgänger: 50% US, 28% German, 11% Luxembourg, 10% Iceland and 2% Greece (!?!?!?). Back-tested to fit a window only to 2009 – so no data mining (cherry picking) there then!

    If you haven’t yet fallen of your chair laughing then read the next bit where they then destroy their own analysis with “placebo” and “robustness” tests and looking at other baskets of cherries.

    https://www.cer.eu/sites/default/files/insight_JS_30.9.18_fin.pdf

    UK growth is below some other nations because we are running out of spare capacity and still have an EU-centric, London-centric, laissez faire, ne0liberal economic model.

    Brexit is a temporary factor for sure but it is ludicrous to pin 40+yrs of a faulty and n4ive economic model and a few years of under performance versus doppelgängers on Brexit alone.

    If we’d never signed Maastricht and had adjusted our economic model back in early 1990s then we could be £2billion/week better off by now!

    If we can travel back in time, go to 1992 not 2016

    What we needed then and desperately need now is to increase productivity, have a more “hands-on” govt, get every sector and region firing on all cylinders and conduct foreign trade based on comparative advantages not political projects.

    Our economic model should be based on a market economy but without the ne0liberal n4ivities. We know:
    – markets usually work but sometimes fail (the financial crisis and housing are two obvious cases where they didn’t/don’t work perfectly and need a more “hands-on” approach, World history shows that in most cases markets do work and benefit from keeping “hands-off”)
    – the EU27/World don’t play fair (RoI, Luxembourg tax havens and the current French “sweet heart” poaching of UK business are two obvious cases showing the need to put the UK tax base and electorate first for a change – we’ll be staying in NATO, UN, WTO, etc but outside of that it is every country for themselves)

    Corbyn-McDonnell have a post Brexit, post ne0liberal plan. It is, IMHO, a sh1t plan but it is about time CON at least had a plan so that they can start implementing it and selling it to the electorate!

    Failing to plan is planning to fail!

    Boris’s bridges and May’s extra levy on foreign home buyers shows how cr4p CON “ideas” currently are. We don’t need white elephants and tinkering we need to defend a market based economy, tackle the flaws that exist from the “dark side” of capitalism and develop an “evolved” economic model for post Brexit UK.

    [Soz, went a bit party political broadcast at the end there. I’m just sick of BS econometric models from both sides when we should be discussing our country’s post Brexit economic model instead]

  34. SHEVII

    No-one seems to have commented on the trend for Yougov to be out of kilter with most of the other polls or put forward methodological reasons behind it.

    Ahem, ahem!

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10030/comment-page-10#comment-1196318

    Though given that people then proceeded to claim that the YouGov poll showed the failure of Labour’s Conference, presumably they didn’t read the first part of the comment either.

    Actually the difference between YouGov and everyone else has been a problem, on and off, for most of the year and I’ve mentioned it quite a few times. It doesn’t mean they’re wrong of course, but it does require explanation. It didn’t happen post-Chequers when the Tory vote dropped (they had a Lab+5), so may be that they are producing larger leads whoever is in front. Maybe it’s some sort of amplification effect due to regional weighting or it’s something to do with how they send out requests. They also deliberately have a higher percentage of non-voters than some other polls, which might have an amplifying effect

  35. My apologies Roger! I do sometimes scan the forums but always make an effort to read yours seeing as they are about polling.

    Mind you to be fair to me you didn’t say why in that earlier post and even your latest post was a little bit vague :-) I liked the old days when ICM variances were easy to understand!

  36. TURK

    Thanks.

    I hoped you would say something along those lines.

  37. @ TOH

    “Perhaps some of the EU members are worried :-)”

    If the EU are intent on a cut our nose off type of deal, just to demonstrate the folly of leaving, then perhaps.

    Ireland with its high % service sector will be worried by the prospect of a no-deal Brexit, and I wonder how much more we’ll be seeing the NI border being used a bargaining chip.

    The EU really need to help May out now, not humiliate her with cheap cake stunts.

  38. TW
    “I’m not sure if you’ve seen the lengths the French are going to, in order to poach UK businesses. 40yrs late but time we opened our eyes and starting putting UK business and taxpayers first and reciprocate the “poaching” approach of competitor nations.”
    They always do it, and yes I agree with you.

    BFR
    I think all the forecasts I have seen so far on Brexit outcomes are suspect, I was just saying his outcomes are very much I line with my own view of what is likely to happen.

    Danny
    “ If the government negotiates our remaining in the EU on the same terms as before, I would regard that as a reasonable deal. But I think you would not.”
    Indeed, I would regard it as a huge disaster for the UK. We have our chance to escape, we must take it, sums up my view.

    ROGER MEXICO
    “Actually the difference between YouGov and everyone else has been a problem, on and off, for most of the year and I’ve mentioned it quite a few times.”

    The latest Opinium poll show a bigger movement against Labour when compared with it’s predecessor than the YouGov. The last Kantar poll also supported YouGov polling in respect of polling leads. So I don’t agree with your comment.

  39. JONESINBANGOR

    I think the EU is in a mess of it’s own making. I think they want to punish us and it will cost them as well as us and possibly lead to the breakup of the EU, not that i would weep if that happened.

  40. Wonder if the Ryder Cup will get a mention at the Tory Conference?

  41. ToH,

    Just for accuracy, McDonnell corrected himself later and his comments were before the conference resolution was passed so technically not inaccurate but an opinion that was superseded.

    All options including remain are ‘on the table’ does not mean Labour would call for a ref including that but they don’t wish to rule out.

    The key thing is that 15-20 Tory MPs would essentially decide what 2nd referendum they wish to propose and Labour would decide if to agree.

    Labour can call for one but if the specifics come from them it makes it harder for the ‘Grieve’ group to support.
    The conference vote actually forces Labour to call for a second ref in a GE is refused which reduces the leaderships wriggle room and timing options.

    My guess is about a month after any deal brought back by May fails to get HOC support as, I think but stand to be corrected, there is a 21 days window to bring something else back. Labour would hope that in the period just after the 21 days enough Tory back-benchers would coalesce around a second ref proposal that they Labour) could accept.

    NB) 15-20 as I believe the Labour rebels would be more than the usual 5 on a second ref vote some of which could be abstentions but either way more Tories MPs would have.

    NB) 2 – I still think super fudge will win out with a vary vague future relationship outline which would allow all key factions within the Tory party and the EU to proceed to transition.

  42. @oldnat

    Re the NCP marginal constituencies poll, the tables for the poll suggest voting intention question was asked first followed by one on issue salience (Brexit was top, housing middle ranking), and then a series of questions on whether issues had got better/worse ( unemployment, education, crime, housing and so on).

    NCP boosted the number of private renters in the sample to it seems about one third of the total. It is not clear whether this over represents them compared to the housing tenure profile of the constituencies or makes it a representative sample. If the former, it could skew the vi results but it is possible that the poll is not an unreasonable reflection of current vi in those marginals.

  43. Hireton

    I agree that “it is possible that the poll is not an unreasonable reflection of current VI in those marginals.”

    We’ll never actually know, though!

  44. OldNat

    [From last noght]

    There is no evidence that the pre-Saxon inhabitants had a word for window, but neither for the contrary (argument from the vacuum). The first written word that uses an expression for the phenomenon (the window) is French.

    Anyway – apologies. I asked my friend of the Saxon word … Ash on my head and so on…

  45. BFR and ToH

    The model can be downloaded, and operated from most spreadsheets. The results cannot be replicated. So if the outcome corresponds to the model is accidental.

    There are dehumidifier in the model – mainly around correlations which are based on “carefully” selected data points.

    The whole thing reminds me to the dancing p-value. So, it is a purely ideological piece of work, dressed up as an econometric model (well, common practice, so, it is not a blame).

  46. trevor Warne,
    “UK growth is below some other nations because we are running out of spare capacity and still have an EU-centric, London-centric, laissez faire, ne0liberal economic model. ”

    I once read an acadmeci study someone kindly ublished in one of these economic debates, which concluded the actions of Uk govrnment had little effect on Uk growth in recent years. Rather, the Uk economy always followed a basket of the world economy. Like being index linked. Yet this time we are not following the index. The government would seem to have ‘broken through’ and managed to have a real impact on our economy.

    Maybe it shows it is much easier to break something than to fix it.

    “Boris’s bridges and May’s extra levy on foreign home buyers shows how cr4p CON “ideas” currently are. We don’t need white elephants and tinkering we need to defend a market based economy, tackle the flaws that exist from the “dark side” of capitalism and develop an “evolved” economic model for post Brexit UK.”

    That fascinating, but surely its more the narrative of labour than tory governments? If we did a poll of posters here, how many would believe a conservative administration would deliver as you suggest?

  47. Laszlo

    :-) Ash is not required. One of the joys of the early history of many places is that the lack of documentation allows endless theories to flourish – with no chance of being definitively disproved. It’s all a bit Brexitish really!

  48. Jonesinbangor,
    “The EU really need to help May out now, not humiliate her with cheap cake stunts.”

    Who was it, home secretary Jack Straw, who felt obliged to shop his own son for something. Sometimes the right thing to do is be firm with your offspring so they understand they cannot just do what they please. The world doesnt work that way.

    Roger Mexico.
    ” They also deliberately have a higher percentage of non-voters than some other polls, which might have an amplifying effect”

    Interesting. I didnt know that, though I keep banging on about what might be happening to the uncommitted. It was they who accounted for a lot of the reversal of fortunes in the last election.

    The decline of labour seems to suggest the situation is setting up for another big labour surge….if they commit for remain.

  49. NeilJ,

    “We’re talking about Boris here, I suspect it was something he thought about 5 minutes before it came out of his mouth:-)”

    That long….I’d put it down as him maturing!

    More cynically ( who me; snarly Cairns) if he wants to replace May and avoid an election he might be trying to keep the DUP on side.

    Maybe he could ask Vlad for the contact for the guys who built the one to Crimea?

    My own view is that it’s an economic non starter.

    It would be on the scale of the channel tunnel as a project in terms of engineering and cost but while that didn’t break even and pay the interest on it’s £6.5bn debt till 2001, seven years after opening!

    It didn’t make a profit till 2007, and wasn’t expected to make enough to pay tax till 2015… 20 years after opening…

    I don’t have and can’t find more up to date figures but as trade between France & the UK will dwarf NI to Scotland it would be a Giant White Elephant although maybe Moby Dick a Giant White Whale would be a better analogy….

    Which come to think of it brings us neatly back to Boris!!!!

    Peter.

  50. Conventional psephology says that “divided parties don’t get elected”.

    But has there been a similar situation previously when both parties that have pretensions to forming the UK are so bitterly (and publicly) divided?

    The anti-Semitism row in English Labour didn’t really gain traction in Scotland, but now SLab seems to be at daggers drawn over committing infinite funds (from London HQ – SLab doesn’t have much cash) to supporting the legal costs of an ex-leader in a defamation [1] case.

    The Herald is reporting that the row might result in a front bench reshuffle among SLab at Holyrood.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16950759.richard-leonard-considering-scottish-labour-reshuffle-as-civil-war-rages-over-kezia-dugdale-row/

    It seems an odd pickle for a party to choose to get into.

    [1] Scots law doesn’t categorise defamation into libel and slander. It can be expressed in any medium – so anyone responding to this post by commenting on the individuals in the case may wish to bear that in mind!

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