The regular Ipsos MORI political monitor came out in today’s Evening Standard. Topline voting intention figures were CON 39%(+1), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 13%(+3), UKIP 2%(-4). Fieldwork was Friday to Tuesday and changes are from MORI’s last poll in July (they take a month off for August).

As with other recent polls the Conservatives seem to have recovered a tiny lead since falling behind after the Davis & Johnson resignations. Worth noting is that 13% for the Liberal Democrats. This is the highest they have recorded in any poll since the general election. While one shouldn’t read too much into a single poll – especially one whose fieldwork overlapped with the Lib Dem party conference – the wider polling trend does suggest some uplift in Liberal Democrat support: six of the nine polls so far this month have the Liberal Democrats back up in double figures.

The poll also asked about confidence in the Brexit negotiations, finding predictably low figures. 28% of people said they were confident Theresa May would get a good deal for Britain in the Brexit negotiations, 70% were not.

There was, however, not much more confidence that alternative Prime Ministers would do any better. 28% were confident Jeremy Corbyn would get a good deal were he Prime Minister, 67% were not. If Boris Johnson was PM 33% would be confident he’d get a good deal, 64% would not.

Full details are here.


389 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 39, LAB 37, LDEM 13, UKIP 2”

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  1. “if I am being honest, it means little to have such praise from such a confused and eratic poster.”

    Alec, dear, don’t you mean (whispers huskily) erotic poster?

  2. Good Evening All from a wet Bournemouth East, which the LP leader said on BBC South yesterday is a target seat.

    I think that the PM will get a deal with the EU and that they will agree to allow NI to carry on as it is without border checks.

  3. Belfast Telegraph reports on the RHI scandal. Read all about it.

    “DUP adviser with links to chicken industry deleted poultry reference from a key RHI paper, inquiry told

    Arlene Foster’s former Spad (special adviser) has said there was “no malice” in his decision to remove a reference from a key Stormont paper blaming the poultry industry for the RHI spike

    He insisted it had nothing to do with his family connections and “no malice” was intended in what he did.

    Dr Crawford had three close relatives who produced chickens for poultry giant Moy Park, and had a total of 11 RHI boilers between them.

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/rhi-scandal/no-malice-in-deleting-term-from-rhi-paper-says-exdup-spad-crawford-37318344.html

  4. @ JJ – CON-Remain MPs have a wide range of views but without Corbyn (and after Friday) they are not going to act.

    Many want a new ref as it is the only honest way to stop Brexit and Remain in EU. Only a few have officially joined the “PeoplesVote” but many might back a ref if we end up with “no deal”. Hence Corbyn officially supporting a new ref (or not) is important. Fudging it will make CON-Remain nervous to act or walk through the “wrong” door!

    It’s an issue of risk v reward for CON-Remain. To risk your career you need to be 99% certain you’ll get the result you want (Remain, EEA, BrINO). If/when it comes to the crunch many CON-Remain will see they are risking their career just to hand Corbyn+McDonnell the keys to #10 and #11 but with serious doubts that Corbyn would actually stop Brexit or deliver EEA/BrINO.

    Their worst nightmare is destroying their careers and their party only to see the Marx Brothers say:

    “May broke Brexit beyond repair and it’s all the Tories fault. We never wanted Brexit but if we’d been elected sooner we’d have got a good deal. May and her infighting useless Tories have now given us no choice but to Leave with “no deal” and leave it to Labour to clean up their mess.

    On the bright side though that means we can renationalise everything much faster without ECJ saying “NON”

    I also can’t over emphasise the importance of the Tusk instagram and May’s speech.

    CON-Remain’s version of “Save Theresa” was to steer her to a CON BrINO – that hope died on Friday

    So if Corbyn can’t be relied on to deliver a ref and back Remain then it is game over for CON-Remain – why commit hari-kari only to risk the worst of all Worlds (in their eyes):

    Corbyn inheriting a no deal Brexit

    You will be asking CON-Remain to put their job, their party and their country on the line for a Corbyn promise of nothing.

    @ PETER – You do know you put SNP in brackets after your name! Quite the dog whistle Sturgeon blows when she wants to rally the brave hearts and it always amazes me how SNP can not see the total hypocrisy of Brexit v Indy.

    Mind you nor can LDEM (ie EUref2 but no Indyref2). CON are at least consistent (a once in a generation vote on each)

    P.S. You do remember SNP MPs singing “Ode de Joy” in the HoC and the walk out stunt?

  5. TW @ Alec

    “Possibly for the first time, in like forever, ALEC is almost right about something Brexit related!!”

    Alec @ TW

    “Thankyou for you praise. However, if I am being honest, it means little to have such praise from such a confused and eratic poster.”

    Bugger. I’d just organised a surprise party for you so that we could celebrate.

    TWO r’s are required for eRRatic by the way.

  6. @ ALEC – thanks for agreeing with me then disagreeing with yourself. Not for the first time I’d add!!

    I’ll concede the use of UK for War of Roses. Pedantic medal, as usual, won by a Scot.

  7. Anyway back to polling! The write-up for YG poll is out but not the tabs. Lots of LAB questions in there and a nice graphic of “awareness” v “net favourability” (Q2)

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/09/22/five-questions-labour-should-be-thinking-about-liv/

    I do sometimes feel a little sorry for Diane Abbot. I’m sure she is a lovely person, something I don’t think I can say about John McDonnell.

  8. Trevor Warne (whether MkI or MkII, I know not)

    ” it always amazes me how SNP can not see the total hypocrisy of Brexit v Indy.”

    It always used to amaze me that so many BritNats were amazed, until I realised that they were so blinkered and ignorant that they assumed that “independence” could only be thought of in their terms, with their emotional associations to the term.

    I don’t mind people being ignorant (my whole career was centred on opening people’s eyes to new knowledge), but when matters have been regularly explained, and they continue to cling to their ignorance, then they simply expose themselves as pathetically narrow (and closed) minded.

  9. “VALERIE
    @Paul

    And your 12.52 pm post tickled my rib cage!”

    Oh. Jolly good.

    Are you sorted out at your conference hotel and enjoying the squabbling – I mean banter – by the way?

    No little doggies allowed so I am having to forgo the pleasure,

  10. Tony Connelly shows the UK press how to reprt and inform:

    https://www.rte.ie/amp/995292/?__twitter_impression=true

    Such a pity thst the UK no longer has any newspapers of record or merit.

  11. Tony Connelly shows the UK press how to reprt and inform:

    https://www.rte.ie/amp/995292/?__twitter_impression=true

    Such a pity thst the UK no longer has any newspapers of record or merit.

  12. According to the BBC ; “In an interview with Ireland’s RTE Radio, Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney said the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier had told him a treaty for the withdrawal of the UK from the EU was 87% agreed.”

    Sounds positive.

  13. “Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has urged the EU not to mistake British politeness for weakness”

    Given that his predecessor wasn’t sacked for his various versions of “politeness” that seems a bit of embarrassing brass-neck to me.

  14. @ Valerie

    @Paul

    And your 12.52 pm post tickled my rib cage!

    Mine too. Twice, when I reread it.

  15. Yes… peeps often compare me to Ken Dodd and his tickling stick.

  16. R&D

    Does the taxman make that comparison too?

  17. ON

    That’s not a very nice nasturtium to throw at a National Treasure.

    [Ken I mean,not me…]

    Where’s your British Politeness? We are admired throughout the world for that quality.

    [That and nicking other people’s countries when we were all powerful.]

  18. ““Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has urged the EU not to mistake British politeness for weakness””

    EU has urged Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt not to mistake the Chequers Plan for a workable solution to Brexit!

    Peter.

  19. @oldnat

    Yes the difference between Scotland in the UK and an independent Scotland in the EU is so obvious and so significant that anyone with an ounce of grey matter should be able to grasp it.

  20. “@”I actually think that May can beat Corbyn, but she will have to adopt some of his policies ”

    You are a laugh a minute old chap :-)”
    @colin September 22nd, 2018 at 4:18 pm

    Yep, hilarious:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/18/people-should-proud-living-council-house-theresa-may-says-major/
    People should be ‘proud’ of living in a council house, Theresa May says in major shift in Conservative policy

  21. “And your 12.52 pm post tickled my rib cage!
    Mine too. Twice, when I reread it.“

    ——

    Must admit it tickled mine too!

    Given that it was posted by someone who couldn’t tell what Clegg was going to be like and who thought Miliband was a shoo in for PM it’s pretty comical.

  22. @ROSIEANDDAISIE

    “Yes… peeps often compare me to Ken Dodd and his tickling stick.”

    ——

    He maybe used more of his own material though.

  23. Hireton,

    “Yes the difference between Scotland in the UK and an independent Scotland in the EU is so obvious and so significant that anyone with an ounce of grey matter should be able to grasp it.”

    And yet, the idea that we might want the same rights as the UK to decide for ourselves what powers we share with others seems hypocrisy!

    The UK PM having the power to invoke A50, with or without a referendum or indeed Parliament is Sovereignty, but the FM wanting to be allowed to ask the people of Scotland about their own future is us getting to big for our boots.

    Apparently wanting the same control over Scotland’s future as Westminster has over the UK’s is hypocrisy.

    Peter.

  24. PETERW (from yesterday)

    The long-standing convention in the UK is that PMs resign. They are not dismissed. This is formally followed even when they lose an election, although when the Leader of the Opposition secures a clear majority they resign immediately

    That’s just the convention of course. It wouldn’t necessarily stand in a case of egregious abuse. But I don’t think a sitting PM taking the 14 days to try to put another majority together would be an egregious abuse. To the contrary, it was very much one of the purposes envisaged for the period when the bill was introduced.

    That’s all true and it’s clear the primary purpose of the 14 days (which from memory was copied from Scottish legislation) was to help reinforce a temporarily split coalition or a vote lost by accident. Similarly, the large super-majority for a direct vote on a general election.

    And of course there always has to be a Prime Minister and a government. That’s why, despite the abuse, Brown and Heath had to hang on (and Brown still went earlier than the Palace wanted). As you say, the existing PM has pretty strong squatters rights, but what happens if there is a PM who won’t resign even if there is plausible alternative government? Or if there isn’t but a lot of people and the media are claiming that there is. After all there’s enough Labour supporters who still denounce the Lib Dems for not joining with their Party in 2010 – despite the numbers not being there. And you can imagine the press screaming that [insert editor’s chum here] should immediately be made PM as only he embodies the people’s will.

    The FTPA paradoxically removed the nominal Royal involvement of calling elections, while introducing a practical one of how to deal with possible candidates in the 14 days. Under current conditions, assuming the DUP remain onside, it’s probably May or nothing. But you could imagine situations, not too different, where it becomes a real problem. There’s no precedent to go on and even just letting the time run out to cause an election might give rise to controversy. Australians still haven’t forgotten the 1975 election caused in a similar manner – and that was the Queen’s representative acting off his own bat.

  25. SAM

    No idea of the reliability of the poll in Con Home.

    Not great – you can see this from the volatility of their next PM polling. The sort of Conservative members likely to take part are probably not just obsessively interested in politics, but professionally involved. There will lots of SPADs, agents, councillors, Party functionaries, thinktankers, journalists and so on. I think they do sort of verify membership and I would imagine they exclude MPs, but it’s probably mostly the same thousand or so replying every month. YouGov’s polls will be better balanced as their panel members will be ordinary members who have signed up to do surveys on fizzy drinks and insurance.

    As a gauge of the latest passing fads in the blue sections of the Westminster village it may have some use – but you can get that just by following the media anyway. It’s basically a voodoo poll made up mostly of witchdoctors.

  26. Colin

    Militant Tendency never really went away it just has new clothes in the form of Momentum.
    Corbyn not unexpectedly has let them out of the box because at heart he and McDonnell were always MT cheerleaders.
    As to party conferences my view is they serve little purpose other than massaging the egos of various ministers and shadow ministers,mainly they are little more than a meeting shop for the committed who attend to have there particular views reinforced by meeting with like minded individuals.
    Little if anything comes from them except perhaps some motivation for activists to turn out at General Elections .However those grand promises all parties make at conference rarely survive intact,they are designed to attract momentary headlines or promote a particular politicians career.
    I know it sounds a very cynical appraisal but it’s born from either attending or listening to various conferences of all parties over the past 45yrs.

  27. Roger Mexico

    I enjoy your posts not only for their obvious erudition, but your superb use of language.

    “It’s basically a voodoo poll made up mostly of witchdoctors.” is a wonderful example of that.

  28. Just having a peek back in time at the Suez Crisis of 1956, and it’s been highly instructive. It has been widely judged in the intervening six decades or so to be a national humiliation and taken as a de facto marker of the end of empire, although that latter judgement might best be reserved for earlier events such as the loss of the sub continent.

    Some of the political conditions are famil!ar: a Tory government, with a number of key figures believing the UK was more powerful and influential that it was in reality; a sense of exceptionalism and superiority amongst some in government and the governing party; an obsession with protecting the ability of the UK to trade freely; disastrously misjudged discussions with allies.

    Another similarity could be the fact that Eden thought the Americans were backing him, in what ranks still as one of HMGs worst misjudgements of the C20th. How many times are we hearing how America and everyone else wants to give the UK good deals?

    The press were right were they always were back then, cheering on ‘our boys’ and spoiling for a fight with the foreigners, with a few notable exceptions. And the entire scheme was constructed on a l!e, with Eden claiming we needed to invade to separate Israeli and Egyptian forces in order to protect the canal, going to the pretense of issuing ultimatums to both countries, even as we signed a secret treaty with Israel the day before and agreed a coordinated invasion.

    It was a complete disaster, and oddly enough, despite all the press attention, it wasn’t supported by the public. Gallup reported 37% backing invasion, with 44% against – but the fiasco went ahead.

    This is instructive, because we are now getting briefings that some ministers believe we are heading towards the next Suez Crisis with the idea of a no deal Brexit. The press are whipping it up, the PM has overplayed her hand, the Tory Party has rediscovered it’s ability to self delude, ministers have l!ed to us, and the public does not support this course.

    What could possibly go wrong!

  29. Sunday Times reporting that No 10 aides have been talking up a November election to sort out Brexit. Not sure i believe they are seriously thinking about it, with the polls as close as they are there would be the risk of handing the keys to No 10 to Corbyn, at least as the leader of a coalition. Speaking of polls we have BMG

    Con 38 (+1)
    Lab 38 (-)
    LibD 10 (-1)
    UKIP 5 (-2)

  30. Labour NEC voted tonight to put to Conference

    1.that a second deputy leader be elected from an all women short list

    2.amend the nomination procedure for leader so that candidates require 10 per cent Mps and either 5 per cent trade unions or 5 per cent clps.and

    3.a reform of mp selections so that vote of 30 percent of branches will force a ballot of members.

  31. @From the Yougov article…

    “When it comes to personal finances rather than the wider economy the gap does start to close, but just a quarter (25%) say a Labour government would be better for their personal finances compared to 29% who say the same for the Conservatives.“

    ——-

    …that’s a four percent gap, which just happens to be the same as the VI gap. Is there any data on how personal finances correlate with overall VI.

  32. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (+1)
    LAB: 38% (-)
    LDEM: 10% (-1)
    UKIP: 5% (-2)

    via @BMGResearch, 21 – 22 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 07 Sep

    Hmm

  33. Alec

    Was your “peek back in time” suggested by “senior Tories warning that the prime minister now risks a diplomatic calamity on the scale of the Suez crisis”?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/22/hard-brexit-risks-breakup-uk-conservatives-warn

    If the comments by Tory MPs on there are accurate, then their disconnect with thinking outside their own wee bubble is very reminiscent of 1956 (especially for those of us for whom it was our first real introduction to politics).

    “Nobody voted Brexit to break up the UK,” one minister said which is true, but equally polling suggests that a majority of Leavers in England are unconcerned if it does have that effect.

  34. Brilliant Smith

    “3.a reform of mp selections so that vote of 30 percent of branches will force a ballot of members.”

    That might raise interesting questions in Scotland, where SLab (sensibly) is organised by Scottish Parliament constituencies, not Westminster ones, and some branches may be part of two W/M ones. Indeed, membership is now so low that in some places there may be no branch structure at all.

  35. Turk

    The only thing that Militant Tendency and Momentum have in common is they start with the letter M.

    As to Party conferences Labour conference used to make policy and now seems to be heading back in that direction. Tory Conference is advisory but their mps ,activists and members will hang on the Prime Ministers every word this year. Lets hope the stage set and her nerves doesn’t let her down this time.

  36. Not sure whether this has been shared yet (not that I can see…):

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-back-second-referendum-13292683

    UKPR thoughts on Labour (predictably) shifting their position?

  37. Brilliant Smith

    I think you have included the inappropriate word “on” in your 2nd last line.

  38. Turk (10:35pm)
    “As to party conferences my view is they serve little purpose other than massaging the egos of various ministers and shadow ministers,mainly they are little more than a meeting shop for the committed…”

    That may well be true, but was there not a time when the Labour Party conference at least actually decided party policy? I seem to remember watching news programmes where it seemed very important which way some union was going to cast its millions of votes. Has that all gone by the board?
    ——————————
    O another subject, I hear that there’s stuff in the Sunday papers about Labour shifting towards wanting a second referendum.

  39. Turk

    Momentum is distinctly not like Militant. I sat through their some of their meetings, but they are different. Momentum may feel being a heir (they certainly don’t say it), but it is incorrect.

    Militant was a left-wing social democratic movement with some oddities deriving from petty bourgeois radicalism (it’s not about the members, many of whom I highly appreciate, but of the ideology. I don’t suppose you want to watch the film The Young Karl Marx, but all the strains of the current Labour Party are there) – that is from Trotsky (as interpreted by some).

    Momentum is distinctly different. It is not affiliated to any main ideologies, it is affiliated with particular causes and discontent and Corbyn. This is very, very different from a trade unionists crossing Scotland Road to recruit members from the other estate back in the 1970s, and even in the 1980s. I would say that Momentum is not even left-wing – it is the voice of populism that is affiliated with a particular ideological stream (JC) and hence shows both traits (popylism, which has no direction, and an ideology, which obviously has). Also Momentum is surprisingly (not really) fluid in terms of membership, and Brexit is a major issue in it. It has some strong similarities of left-popularist movements of the US after the great depression. What becomes of it is in the future – if the Left cannot satisfy them…

    So, there is actually no real similarity. There are themes that may strike the cord, but that’s it.

    The key point with Momentum is that they are not leftists, they are just discontented and they are hoping that the Left could solve the very particular problems they are faced.

  40. Kester Leek

    I find Corbyn’s attitude to which policies he will advocate, an interesting one.

    While his detractors present him as an evil authoritarian, and his supporters a beneficent authoritarian, his statements always seem to be along the lines of “I may think they are wrong, but if the party decides something, I’ll do my best to see it carried out.

    While that may be just a strategy (he is a politician) it could also be a genuine position – just one incomprehensible to those who personalise politics into the views of the Leader, possibly demonstrating their own desperation to be “authoritarian followers”.

  41. RONALD OLDEN

    It’s almost inconceivable that Mrs May could lose a Vote of No Confidence and then ‘twist a few arms’ and win a second one.

    Why wouldn’t she ‘twist them’ first time round?

    The Government would fall if she lost such a vote and someone else would be called upon. (It wouldn’t have to be Corbyn). But if Mrs May fell, I can’t see how anyone else could form a Government with the Parties and Remain/Leave mathematics in the House, as they are.

    Well accidents can happen when majorities are small and the FTPA works so there isn’t an immediate election if someone gets locked in the loo or whatever. And of course the DUP (or whoever holds the balance) might be lured back into support with another batch of goodies.

    But the government still stays in place if such a vote is cast unless the Queen appoints an alternative. And they still stay after 14 days when the election is called – though there are all sorts of conventions as to what they can and can’t do.

    Unless there’s a really obvious alternative PM who can demonstrate a potential majority in the Commons, May would be almost certain to stay on (and would be pressured to even if she didn’t want to). It’s possible that the Tories could put some sort of leadership contest together for a replacement, but the various factions all seem to hate each other more than they hate May and would be unlikely to agree on a compromise candidate.

    Like Turk, I suspect May is actually quite safe – like Corbyn she’s very good at giving her internal opponents enough rope to demonstrate noose-tying techniques to the adoring media and then put it round their own necks. And those who want to have the job, don’t really want to do it. They want to be PM without the responsibility of it. And polling suggests that the alternatives would all do less well for the Conservatives than she would.

    […]It is conceivable however that [May] might lose a vote on something to do with Brexit, which she herself, as a last stand, had designated a Vote of No Confidence.

    No it isn’t. One of the points of the FTPA is that this can’t happen. A vote of no confidence can only that the exact form “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government” with no additions or conditions. The most she could do would be to threaten to resign if she lost a particular vote – but there’s probably enough Tory MPs who would then vote just to get rid of her. Otherwise she could be voted against on anything, but win any subsequent no confidence.

  42. Roger Mexico

    I think there is an additional factor in a Confidence vote in the current situation in the HoC.

    It is regularly said that she has a C&S arrangement with the DUP, but it’s not really a C&S arrangement, since the DUP will desert in a moment if their terms aren’t met.

    May’s situation is actually little different from Sturgeon at Holyrood, or Jones in the Senedd – a minority administration. She has just chosen to slavishly follow the DUP’s demands to keep their votes.

    (The Sun has an article suggesting that she had little to offer at Salzburg, as she had tried to get the DUP to shift a little, but failed utterly to do so.)

  43. “Sunday Times reporting that No 10 aides have been talking up a November election to sort out Brexit.”

    ———

    Yep, from the article…

    Theresa May’s team plot snap election to save Brexit
    PM faces new cabinet battle over immigration

    Tim Shipman and Caroline Wheeler
    September 23 2018, 12:01am,
    The Sunday Times

    Theresa May’s aides have secretly begun contingency planning for a snap election in November to save the Brexit talks and her job after EU leaders rebuffed the prime minister’s Chequers plan.

    Two senior members of May’s Downing Street political operation responded to her summit humiliation in Salzburg last week by “war-gaming” an autumn vote to win public backing for a new plan.

    In a telephone conversation on Thursday evening one of them said to another Tory strategist: “What are you doing in November — because I think we are going to need an election.”

    With May’s position in peril, The Sunday Times can also reveal that another member of her inner circle has told cabinet ministers she is likely to stand down next summer — a move designed to stop them resigning now to replace her.“

  44. Naturally, Downing Street have a different message…

    ‘A Downing Street source said: “It is categorically not true that No 10 is planning for an election or has held any meetings to discuss one.””

    Of course they might have held the meetings in No. 11…

  45. There was no denial quoted of the bit about her resignation though…

    “The two aides suggested the prime minister would move from her Chequers plan to something closer to the Canada model, then run on a Eurosceptic ticket in the election in the hope of securing a working Commons majority. That would allow her to outvote the 15-20 Tory MPs pushing for a soft Brexit.

    At least six cabinet ministers are considering whether to call on her to ditch Chequers and “pivot” to a Canada-style deal instead.

    Sajid Javid, Michael Gove and Brexit secretary Dominic Raab prefer that approach but are supporting May to get a deal. Esther McVey, Andrea Leadsom and Penny Mordaunt are said by MPs to have discussed resignation, although Mordaunt’s and Leadsom’s aides last night denied they plan to quit. In a bid to keep the Brexiteers on board, one of May’s senior aides held out the prospect that she will make way for a new leader next year.

    “They are telling ministers that Theresa is likely to announce her departure by next summer,” one senior Tory said.

    “The idea is: back her now and then we will clear the way for a leadership contest after that. And the message to the Brexiteers is: if you want to sort out Brexit later you might get that opportunity once she’s gone.”“

  46. OLDNAT

    While [Corbyn’s] detractors present him as an evil authoritarian, and his supporters a beneficent authoritarian, his statements always seem to be along the lines of “I may think they are wrong, but if the party decides something, I’ll do my best to see it carried out.

    While that may be just a strategy (he is a politician) it could also be a genuine position – just one incomprehensible to those who personalise politics into the views of the Leader, possibly demonstrating their own desperation to be “authoritarian followers”.

    Whether he’s genuine or not in it, he’s been fairly consistent over the years in advocating this stance. Most of his ‘rebellions’ have tended to be when he was following Party policy rather than the whims of the current leader. It’s one of the things that seems to infuriate Westminster groupthink the most.

    Not that they want him to be a leader, of course. From the start they were basically denouncing him as being a bad leader because he didn’t do what they wanted (irony is lost on these people). Instead they want him to act like their idea of a Leader. It’s all performative according to conventional rules.

    I actually think Corbyn’s more collegiate style was one of the things that worked so well during the election campaign. While the media may demand a more hackneyed and dictatorial style, it actually turns many people off and strikes them as phoney. But they warm to politicians who appear to listen to others – Charles Kennedy would be a good example.

    Of course in relation to Scotland, the same principles get him into a similar sort of trouble. He is inclined to let the Labour Party in Scotland to set the line in relation to policy there, rather than impose it from London. He then gets denounced for not overriding the local decisions to impose his own stated preferences. Usually by the same people who complain that Scottish Labour is only a ‘branch office’ with no autonomy. Admittedly SLab are mostly a bunch of idiots, stuck in performative opposition who hate Corbyn anyway, but he should get some credit for sticking to his principles.

  47. @KESTER LEEK
    Not sure whether this has been shared yet (not that I can see…):
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-back-second-referendum-13292683
    UKPR thoughts on Labour (predictably) shifting their position?

    Taken together with a poll showing 86% of Labour Party members back a second referendum I can see the Labour position changing following the Conference and Labour will adopt a policy calling for a referendum on any final deal
    If by fudge or any other mechanism they some how avoid a vote on the issue at the conference I think an awful lot of members will be very upset

  48. Latest BMG polling resulls show that 50% wanted another election, if Parliament voted down Theresa May’s Brexit position.

    To me that makes very little sense as there would be no real option for voters. Tories would be split on their manifesto and I am not sure Labour candidates would mostly agree with Labours position either.

    The only way to resolve Brexit is another referendum with clear choices. Option would be.

    1) Should the UK still proceed to leave the EU

    A) Leave or B) remain

    2) If the majority vote to leave the EU, what is your preferred option.

    A) Leave the EU with no deal
    or
    B) Extend Article 50 and continue to negotiate exit deal with the EU.

  49. “Sunday Times reporting that No 10 aides have been talking up a November election to sort out Brexit.”

    Well it went so well last time they did that….

  50. More doom and gloom from the usual suspects, IMF, the Governor of BE, and Hammond in the latest version of Project Fear. I would imagine the forecasts are likely to be as wrong as the first version of Project Fear. Serious Brexiters have always accepted that there will be a short term hit from leaving the EU especially if it is on WTO terms, so Project Fear has no great worries for us as it was factored into our thinking before we voted leave at the time of the referendum. Longer term I really do see sunlit uplands as we increasing prosper without the EU’s “dead hand”. I look forward to a booming, low tax, small government economy trading increasingly with the rest of the World and less so with the EU, just IMO of course.

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