The regular Ipsos MORI political monitor came out in today’s Evening Standard. Topline voting intention figures were CON 39%(+1), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 13%(+3), UKIP 2%(-4). Fieldwork was Friday to Tuesday and changes are from MORI’s last poll in July (they take a month off for August).

As with other recent polls the Conservatives seem to have recovered a tiny lead since falling behind after the Davis & Johnson resignations. Worth noting is that 13% for the Liberal Democrats. This is the highest they have recorded in any poll since the general election. While one shouldn’t read too much into a single poll – especially one whose fieldwork overlapped with the Lib Dem party conference – the wider polling trend does suggest some uplift in Liberal Democrat support: six of the nine polls so far this month have the Liberal Democrats back up in double figures.

The poll also asked about confidence in the Brexit negotiations, finding predictably low figures. 28% of people said they were confident Theresa May would get a good deal for Britain in the Brexit negotiations, 70% were not.

There was, however, not much more confidence that alternative Prime Ministers would do any better. 28% were confident Jeremy Corbyn would get a good deal were he Prime Minister, 67% were not. If Boris Johnson was PM 33% would be confident he’d get a good deal, 64% would not.

Full details are here.

389 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 39, LAB 37, LDEM 13, UKIP 2”

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  1. ALEC

    @”I suspect that part of this is that the Ukraine is on the way in to the EU, with the thinking being that ultimately they are likely to become a full member so such deviations are tolerable, whereas the UK is on the way out, and so the excuses for flexing the rules are less acceptable.”

    Yes-I’m sure that’s correct.

    Indeed I have felt from the outset that this is at the very heart of the difference(s) between the sides on Brexit.

    I just don’t believe that they ever fully understood May’s concept of the relationship. For them you are either a Member of the UNion-or a Third Country.

    “Special” bi-lateral relationship with UK is an alien concept to a group of people trying to build a multi member supra national ,uni-cultural counterweight to the USA .

    Why would they want UK on the outside parading its own opinions on the world stage?

    It makes me smile when I read about Tusk’s insulting gaff with the Cherry Cake. The EU has been more than happy to try & bank ( cherry pick) UK Security & Defence co-operation whilst protecting its own perceived trade interests. I suppose they see that as “Negotiating” because they are the Big Boys & -following OLDNAT’s “card holding” dictum -are entitled .

    I remember the French initiative on Defence-The European Intervention Initiative. Outside NATO, outside EU, in frustration at the progress of PESCO , Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Portugal, Denmark and Estonia signed up to it. The UK was also invited. :-)

    This to me epitomises the key EU players-particularly France. Behind all the stuff about Treaties, Rules & Oneness of The Union-when it suits them , any arrangement which serves their purpose is OK.

    Anyway , now that their Salzburg Meeting is out of the way & they have updated their failure to agree on Immigration, we move on to meetings where Brexit is actually on the Agenda. :-)

  2. @Robbiealive

    “I was complaining the other day about people — sorry peeps (a pointless & unamusing slang word if ever there were one) — repeating themselves. God knows if the post appeared.
    Of course I exempt myself from my strictures on others.”


    Well using “peeps” isn’t necessarily supposed to be humorous (it does have a point to it though you might not see it), and that little dig of yours could have had more point or humour to it Robbie, but while you’re around, I meant to ask about this rather one-sided pop at Gove the other day when you wrote…

    But interesting to see that Gove’s plan to boost the performance of boys in exams by reducing the course work element in GCSEs etc has had a modest success.

    Of course when girls lagged behind boys in exam results, no one cared. Once boys fell behind … Something Had to be Done!””

    Strangely, you don’t seem concerned about how coursework can make it much easier to get help from family members etc., and can hence disadvantage those who might not have such additional support. And how it also can help to cover up poor teaching.

    You didn’t even consider that maybe there’s a deficit in how people teach girls that might need addressing.

  3. She’ll be pleased with the headlines though I presume .

    The thought occurs that TM engineered this in order to produce a “Falklands” moment & boost her ratings.

    It doesn’t occur for long though-I don’t think she has that sort of political skill.

  4. Colin,

    ” in order to produce a “Falklands” moment!”

    But will it be “Falklands” or “Suez”!



    McDonnell proving he and Corbyn are useless, gutless and stupid all in one article. Brexit is poison that’s going to open up to the destruction of the NHS and workers rights. The only way Brexit works is to sell off anything the country owns and burn every right and regulation that protects people.

  6. Good news for LDEM in ICM poll
    (link posted y’day but repost with info below)

    “The findings reveal that… the Labour Party would be electorally better off promising to support a popular vote on their re-negotiated Brexit deal as opposed to ruling one out”

    NB This is in a hypothetical scenario into a GE, which is itself a popular vote! Anyone curious why they didn’t use the word referendum?

    Q6 is where everyone but CON promises a “popular vote” in a GE scenario
    CON 43
    LAB 44
    LDEM 9

    Q7 is where CON and LAB rule out a “popular vote” (changes v Q6)
    CON 43 (uc)
    LAB 31 (-13)
    LDEM 21 (+12)

    McDonnell’s comments y’day (reported today) suggest he’s moving towards Gardiner’s view. Thornberry similar. Corbyn?? Lifetime Euroskeptic of course who has sacked every front bencher who has ever vocally backed Remain or a new ref but Remainers seem to have goldfish memories and adopt the blind monkey protocol.
    (ie LAB want a GE not a new vote. They’ll “renegotitate” a better Brexit but not stop it [1])

    There is also the issue of timing here. The poll infers that LAB would need to win a GE then renegotiate a deal with EU and then hold a “popular vote” on it – all before we leave the EU!?

    [1] This is really taking the p1ss with the intelligence of Remainers. Of course LAB can TRY to get EC to allow cherry picking and they can then blame May for having made the UK-EU relationship so toxic that a “good deal” is no longer possible. We then leave with “no deal” but LAB can blame May and hope the intelligent Remain VI buy that fairytale! In the mean time the Marx Bros have total freedom from ECJ and can do whatever they want with state aid, etc.


    The way I feel about Macron just now , either Plassey (1757) or Plains of Abraham (1759) would suit.

    How about Trafalgar ?

  8. UKIP (The Independent) want Muslim only prisons.
    Why not have more officers and better education in prisons (cheaper?).Could start by teaching them the bull of their religion (like all religion).

  9. I guess last week showed at these summits all leaders be they Merkel / May / Macron all have their own egos and like to impose themselves on the negotiations. France even may want a no deal scenario over chequers style compromise . For Macron it is either EEA/Customs union or no deal and nothing in between. It feels they could take business of the city of London and might even change immigration arrangements at French Ports

    It seems that May toughened her negotiation stance which is said to have led to the rebuttal of the chequers plan. In my view this could have been deliberately engineered. She knows that the chequers plan is unacceptable to parliament and so to save face get the EU to rebuff it now and blame them for the breakdown.

  10. Congratulations Alec, you must be beaming with pride.

    ”Possibly for the first time, in like forever, ALEC is almost right about something Brexit related!!”

  11. and when it comes to view on LAB when Leave groups do the polling:

    LAB’s most marginal 25 seats apparantly want to get on with it, respect the ref, don’t want a do-over and would be less likely to support MP if they blocked Brexit, etc

    Heres an example of how to ask a leading question:
    ” to what extent do you agree or disagree that the issue (Brexit) has dragged on long enough and the sooner it is finished the better”

    Surprise surprise, high net agree with that!

    the info in the poll is then interpreted as:
    “send(ing) a message to LAB leadership that backing a 2nd ref or delaying Brexit would be electoral suicide”

    So there you have it:

    – unequivocal evidence in Leave commissioned polls that LAB will lose seats if they back a 2nd ref and

    – unequivocal evidence in Remain commissioned polls that LAB will win seats if they back a 2nd ref!

    Well at least the polling companies are making some money out of this!

  12. Trev – what is the McDonnell comments?

    I spelt out yesterday or the day before that Labour would not call for reversal or a second vote but for them (Labour) to seek a better deal.

    This is Starmer’s position and supported by the Shadow cabinet.

    To maintain the consistency, that the Tories have messed up the negotiations and that a decent deal was possible Labour have to argue they should get an opportunity either after a GE or ruling as a minority (could only be for a few months until called a GE of course like ’74). First step would be to ask for A50 extension which whatever the legal obstacles if the EU and UK want to happen it will.

    None of this precludes Labour backing a second ref in some form at some point but whilst the position (arguably pretence) that a better deal is there for a sensible UK HMG to negotiate if Labour held the reins is the position they can’t back a second ref.

    All key shadow cabinet members understand this.

    NB) As I have said before, Gardner is an issue and would be the first to possible resign of get sacked should Labour actually be in a position to affects matters properly, rather than just through sentiment.

  13. and another Brexit poll! This time YG live from y’day (but I expect most of the data is from prior to May’s speech – be great if they could rerun the question as clearly that will have a bearing on the responses)

    “Thinking about the current position in the Brexit negotiations, do you think…”

    Neither side compromise, no deal: 35
    UK will compromise, deal close to EU: 22
    Both sides will compromise, deal in middle: 16
    EU will compromise, deal close: 6
    DK -21

    Ignoring DK that is 44% and clear plurality expecting “no deal” and roughly in line with other polling over the past few weeks. My guess it will be above 50% in post May speech polls.

    Not that much variation in the x-breaks. LDEM the most defeatist of course and CON least inclined to think UK will compromise of course

  14. @ COLIN – Agincourt ;)

  15. Good morning all from a very wet Winchester.


    “The thought occurs that TM engineered this in order to produce a “Falklands” moment & boost her ratings”

    Well as some will know I’m no fan of Theresa May but based on the manner and what she said yesterday the PM has notched up a few points on my approval barometer.

    It will be interesting to see some polling soon on he back of her speech and l wouldn’t be surprised if we see quite a surge in her approval ratings and that of the Tory party.

    The EU leaders were like a pack of wolves towards her and for the first time I’ve fully backed Theresa May’s response towards the cronies.

  16. The EU would have us believe that everything is just fine in their political project.

    Zimbabwe was suspended from the Commonwealth for undesirable political practices yet in the EU political expansionist project all they can muster against any member state found to be going against the EU’s values is sanctions.

    You see that’s what happens in experiments like the EU, it only knows how to expand and morph but can’t bring itself to suspend or boot out those who flout the rules.

    Poland and Hungary don’t follow the EU rules so why don’t they get booted out yet both are quite happy to take a moral high stance against the UK trying to leave.

  17. @allanchristie

    Your moral outrage would be a little more credible if the Tory MEPs had not voted to support the Hungarian government within the EU last week.

    And you also seem to think that that every Commonwealth member is a bastion and exemplar of democracy, toleration etc. Really?

  18. JIM JAM,your living in the lala land of Corbyn and McDonnell. Under their leadership there’s no chance bar leaving, gutless useless and pathetic they are, near bad as Tories.

  19. @HIRETON @allanchristie

    “Your moral outrage would be a little more credible if the Tory MEPs had not voted to support the Hungarian government within the EU last week. ”

    Your implication might have a smidgin of logical consistency if allanchristie were a Tory MEP. As I am pretty sure he is not, it is self evidently irrelevant to any view he wishes to form.

    We should play the ball not the man.

  20. @OLDNAT

    Sorry OLDNAT I was using the royal ‘we’ as in the electorate. Leaving the EU did not make sense unless you apply those red lines. So yes many people voted for that. I campaigned and voted for the EU red lines too which was the indivisibility of the single market and FoM since above all else my job and hence me paying my mortgage relies on it just for the sense of self interest and more over many other peoples livelihood depended on it. But beyond the self interest I see the world moving to a more regional approach with major powers playing a more global approach. You can see it in China’s strategy for Africa and even the regional approach in Western and Southern Africa where there is more pooling of approach. We seem to be going in the opposite direction.


    I believe the EU have been rather clear about what is available and their red lines they have made it clear what they were willing to compromise on. Yes the EU has different agreements with different countries but the problem I think we have at the moment is they all do something we do not like. So one could argue why can we have these complex bespoke deals like the Swiss? The EU would tell you they are never doing that sort of deal again because it made no sense and fraught with complexity and it had to be agreed by 27 others. What I find fascinating is we keep banging our head against a brick wall expecting not to get a headache.

    May’s demand for respect was in my view for people like you, Raab’s response to the question is again is for someone like you a person who feels we have been bested by dastardly politicians acting tribally and not doing what is ‘our’ perception of good.

    Raab understands that he is clutching at straws, and indeed using the Ukraine to say well they have a different deal hoping people lack the understanding what the hell deal they have. The problem is not that the deal is different it is that it is made up of the constituent part we don’t want.


    I am not sure that all the papers have been rally around the chequers agreement. They have rallied around May call for ‘respect’ after the EU said chequers in it current form is dead. I noticed she did not mention chequers in her statement once. I suspect that she is selling the idea to that audience is that johnny foreigner is being unreasonable not giving us what we want. This is standard Euromyth territory. Both sides are defending what they perceive as important issues in the light of political events. The UK government is enabled by DUP and they have a veto on any and everything since they are more secure in their position than any other party excepting the SF. They are almost guaranteed a pivotal role considering the polls thus far, so for them another election works in their favour. In the EU they have many other issues to deal with indeed Brexit does not trigger them at all. Some indeed want to punish the UK but others are looking at their own domestic agenda and in that context these countries are much more intertwined in perception than the UK is just ask Orban.

    ” and proceed piecemeal in the years and decades to come. Just as we’ve doing for decades which we were in.”

    Is this not what Brexit was supposed to change? The idea the the UK is just muddling along. I liken Brexit to the a fat person deciding they would lose weight by buying an expensive gym membership and then not using it and then complaining about how hard it is.

    We have muddled into where we are now and that is part of the reason that people are essentially pi55ed off. Whatever the outcome now brexit does not solve it in some ways it is irrelevant:

    I suspect we will get a lite deal. as you say our red lines and EU red line intersect at such an agreement. I suspect that Tories want to survive and therefore there is only so much rocking the boat you can do essentially brexit is a playground where the power plays in the Tory party are happening, the same playground where Corbyn is trying to force another election and the same playground where the SNP s and the LD are trying to recover their positions. In the main what has been put into effect is not about brexit but about control power and pursuit of electoral success, it is not about policy and improving peoples lives which is the only rationalisation of Brexit I could understand.

    I suspect May says in power because no one has provided an alternative in the Tory party. No one in the Tory party wants an election this side of march and once we leave I suspect there will be even more reason to not want to change leaders

  21. @PETE

    I think the gutless ones, and certainly the ones who have led us into the current mess, are those who supported holding a referendum they didn’t believe in because it was politically expedient and they mistakenly believed they would win.

    Which covers most of the “Peoples’ Vote” group of MPs.

    Those who opposed holding it can take more credit, or at least avoid the blame, as can those who supported it because they believed in it.


    Ah yes-so we should pray for rain .

  23. PTRP

    @”May’s demand for respect was in my view for people like you,”

    Well that was jolly nice of her.

    Much appreciated-but I still think she can’t win a GE against Corbyn.

  24. Yougov poll this morning on Britain Elects twitter:

    CON; 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (-)
    LDEM: 11% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (+1)

    , surveyed this week
    Chgs. w/ 13 Sep

  25. allan christie

    “Well as some will know I’m no fan of Theresa May but based on the manner and what she said yesterday the PM has notched up a few points on my approval barometer.”

    Given how daft her speech was I think we can take that for granted..

  26. @COLIN

    But that is the point. You feel better because she ‘hit’ back. I noted you felt better when Javid said of Windrush ‘that labour did not have a monopoly of outrage about the issue’ . You felt good because you felt your side was being beaten not because the policy was bad but because it made your side look bad.

    It is the tribal nature of the politics, which was the problem. The point I am making is the EU is not interested in what you or I think at this point we are no longer going to be EU citizens and the UK is no long er going to be a member of the EU.

    Ypur arguments about PESCO and the like have no validity the EU is an economic union it is exclusive in the fact it speaks for all the members. Everything else can be taken indpendently. That has been the reaosn why we left I cannot understand what we are hoping to change. If NATO was and exclusive defence organisation and you could not join any other then clearly I’d understand your use of that as a counter to the EU but it is not. Indeed countries in NATO can have other agreements outside the NATO so I am not sure you grasp the difference. You are seem to say because France does things outside the EU then they should extend it to the things we want. Yes butit is their choice we are asking them to make a choice that we want without the leverage to do it.

    As I said before what red lines to we break and what red lines to the EU break to get a deal? In the end that is what it comes down to. If both sides don’t break at least one red line then it is a thin deal and we move on with our lives and then attend the fact that we have not attended the stuff that has been broken for too long

    I actually think that May can beat Corbyn, but she will have to adopt some of his policies since it s the no tribals that you need to win over the tribals in both sides will vote for their party no matter what. I am not sure that actually any other front runner would do any better

  27. Pete,

    I don’t think I gave an opinion other than ‘to maintain the consistency’; which is also what LP leaders are saying in so many words. Mostly I just spelt out the current LP position as some people genuinely get confused and others perhaps wish to see confusion.

    Clearly the LP position is not to your liking which is your prerogative.

    FWIW, I think one of the few senior UK politicians whose reputation has grown in the last 18 months is Kier Stamer; now that is an opinion. For balance, I said yesterday Raab is a big improvement on Davis and I can add that Robin Walker impresses me when he represents to Government on Brexit matters, one to watch for the in future me thinks.

  28. AllanChristie,

    “all they can muster against any member state found to be going against the EU’s values is sanctions.”

    Because as a rules based organisation that is all the rule of law allows.

    As ever you slither between portraying it as the Evil Empire set on Domination run by Machiavellian’s or a toothless bureaucratic blob miss lead by incompetents, depending on which definition lets you launch the most gratuitous attack on it.

    Mean while you continue portray those of us here who see it as the, less than perfect but inevitable, consequence of attempting to coordinate politics and economics across a continent, of several dozen sovereign states, as people who think it is flawless and can do no wrong.


  29. Interesting choices of battles people make.

    My analogy was on whether by taking a strong stance May would be seen as Thatcher after victory in the Falklands or Eden after the failure in Suez.

    Which it will be depends on the final outcome not todays headlines.

    Chamberlain was cheered in the Commons and get similar banner headlines when he declared “Peace in Our Time” when returning from Munich!

    As to battles, I see this more like one where the superior force has taken the higher ground at the outset and held it’s position daring the weaker force to attack.

    That’s not Agincourt or Bannockburn, that’s Culloden.

    If things look dark to me it’s because history gives us precious few examples of inferior forces attacking and overcoming a stronger one that held a better defensive position.

    Still theirs always the Light Brigade!


  30. @ JJ – A Remain biased source but read it as it does quote McDonnell:

    I trust your read on LAB, I just doubt all LAB-Remain do (as you see in some of the comments on here!) McDonnell has previously kept the light on for a 2nd ref (well some folks think that anyway)

    Regarding things like having their own crack at a “deal”, an A50 extension, not ruling out a ref at some point, etc. then I agree LAB can “dangle” these things to keep Remain onboard and chew up conf debate time. Some fudge on if/but/when/maybe is almost certain to keep stuff “on the table”

    Beyond the VI issue we need to consider how this plays with CON-Remain MPs who will be the ones who create the GE opportunity (or not), very likely risking deselection in the process.

    Do Soubs+co. want to bring down May knowing Corbyn isn’t going to hold a new ref in time to stop Brexit?

    CON – Arch Remain are max 20. Those who want to commit suicide and probably not stop Brexit anyway? I don’t even Soubs is that stupid and after President Donald’s instagram issue any CON MP that backs the EU is going to want to keep their head down and their mouth shut.

    May has time to CHANGE Chequers slide towards CETA+ with WTO backstop between now and conf. Sack Olly Robbins to feed red meat to the b4st4rds and she can pull off a heroes welcome at CON conf and unite her party. I’m not saying she will do that, just seems like a smart way for her to keep her job!

  31. @Peter Cairns

    A masterful summary of a certain sort of brexiteer who is happy to jump through any number of hoops of inconsistency to maintain his or her europhobia.

  32. @ JJ – PS

    We should also consider LAB – Arch Remain / Blairite MPs (up to 75ish). I totally understand that for now they consider they have more hope changing LAB policy from within but facing possible deselection and a GE that won’t commit to a new ref? Why would they stay? Why not have 5mins of fame and set-up a new party or join LDEM?

    (answering that myself it is because outside of a few S.E. London seats it would be political suicide, even in those few seats I doubt stabbing Corbyn in the front would go down well)

    My guess on MPs who defect to LDEM or start new party before 30Mar’19 = 0

    (if any go then it will be a coordinated block of 20+ and only 1-2 of those from CON)


    Don’t you pick battles you won when rallying the crowds???

    Is this not obvious no matter what the situation is??


    As I said May said nothing about Chequers in her speech which to me was telling. his is comfort food for he masses. It gives her some power to wield in the UK but that’s is not where primary battle is won. To me this is Rourkes Drift, Saltzburg was Isandlwana.

  34. @ PETER – It took a while for the SNP to get going after Culloden, missing the N.Sea oil boom etc being a bit of an issue there! I can see the comparison your making but the anti-EU feeling will be a lot harder to put down than a few men in skirts! You might have been better off picking the Fall of Singapore, Feb’42 – a very humiliating defeat!

    I used Agincourt as it was an example of an inferior force retreating against a blocking superior force that should have “won” – killing our troops and taking our King hostage. The purpose of Brexit negotiations is simply to avoid total defeat; May becoming a hostage to the EU and needing a big ransom payment; UK becoming a vassal state of the EC. I think we’re looking more likely to avoid that outcome post her speech!

    After the battle of Agincourt and suppressing a few decades/centuries with poor analogy:

    – France “won” the war but then rapidly went to sh1t
    – The continent had 5 centuries of internal wars
    – UK had the War of Roses (LAB rose perhaps or maybe Socialism v Capitalism)
    – UK refocussed it priorities domestically and non-Europe globally (this isn’t Empire2 its just common sense – IndRev4, etc and the opportunities being better outside of EU)

    You could pick Dunkirk as well in a similar vein perhaps? Hitler had the chance to finish UK off but we stole victory from the jaws of defeat, strengthened existing alliance with old friends, etc.

    I didn’t use that WW2 example as we have no need to beat the EC – we can leave that to the Italian partisans and the Mussolini analogy. Trump and Putin might chip in as well but we don’t need to or want to win a war with the EC/EU – it’s better for UK if they hold it together for a while before the whole project implodes.

    We simply need to come out of Europe quickly, cleanly and with minimum casualties then rebuild our domestic economy and look globally.

    Blimey, time for a few verses of Land of Hope and Glory I think!

    Land of hope and glory, mother of the free
    How shall we extol thee, who are born of thee?
    Wider still and wider shall thy bounds be set
    God, who made thee mighty, make thee mightier yet..

  35. Trevor Warne

    “UK had the War of Roses”

    A bit hard to bring NI into it. England & Wales had the mayhem, battles, looting etc, but it was Sir Walter Scott who named the conflict thus (and he and his Edinburgh publishers, made a reasonable profit out of Anne of Gerstein)

  36. When it comes to battles, all this Brexit stuff could be a phone war if we don’t wind up leaving.

  37. TW,

    “UK becoming a vassal state of the EC.”

    And there it is in a nutshell;

    For some Brexiteers;

    Sitting together with allies and partners in a formal setting with rules to negotiate things for mutual benefit makes us a “Vassal State!”

    Sitting down with allies and partners one at a time on an adhoc basis to get the best deal we can is being “Sovereign!”

    Like Trump, they view it as a zero sum game; a winner and a loser.

    The concept that if we are all willing to compromise, then even if we don’t get everything we want, the overall benefit to us all will outweigh any individual loss to any one of us.

    Where the EU saw us as one amongst equals, we saw it as them against us and still do.

    We chose to leave on our own terms and they respected that, but we accuse them of disrespect because they won’t accept our terms.

    Having decided to go our own way we complain about being isolated. being unable or unwilling to cooperate we accuse them of being bullies.

    When they support greater integration and cooperation as the way to benefit us all, we see it as an attack on our independence.

    They see what we share as greater than what divides us, we see is different about us as more important than what we share.

    While, even though it’s a struggle, they see the future as moving on together, all be it on a long route at the speed of the slowest, for us it’s “Our Way or the Highway!”


  38. I never normally read Trevor’s posts but, as I’m interested in history, I glanced at his 2.10 pm ‘s utterances.

    Ha ha ha ROFL LOL

  39. And I added an apostrophe for good measure. :-)

  40. @Paul

    And your 12.52 pm post tickled my rib cage!

  41. Trevor,

    What you call arch remain Tory’s 15-12 (other than Soubrey and Clarke perhaps) are more interested in securing a Bino than engineering a reversal of Brexit, in my opinion, which aligns well with Labour policy.

    I agree, though, that they won’t bring May down precipitating a GE as they wont want to be the Tories that gave the country PM Corbyn, which is possible if not most likely should there be a GE.

  42. As things stand I think The Pig War is more appropriate than Agincourt

  43. “The EU would have us believe that everything is just fine in their political project.”
    September 22nd, 2018 at 11:47 am

    You might find this of interest:
    Interview with Wolfgang Ischinger ‘We Are Experiencing an Epochal Shift’

    In a DER SPIEGEL interview, former German Ambassador to Washington Wolfgang Ischinger says that U.S. President Donald Trump is endangering the world order. For Germany, the epochal shift amounts to no less than a loss of identity.

  44. The Evening Standard reports that Mrs May is to be asked by some Cabinet members about her Plan B.

    George Osborne edits the Standard. He has been very rude about Mrs May. He described her as “a dead woman walking” and said he wanted to have her “chopped up and in my freezer”.

  45. PTRP

    @” The point I am making is the EU is not interested in what you or I think at this point”.

    A point I made myself earlier today on UKPR.

    We agree !!!!!!!! :-)

    @”Ypur arguments about PESCO”

    I was making a point about the EII actually.

    @”I actually think that May can beat Corbyn, but she will have to adopt some of his policies ”

    You are a laugh a minute old chap :-)

  46. @Peterw

    @allanchristie is a Tory Brexiter so I think the way in which Tory MEPs vote is entirely relevant if he is expressing moral indignation about the EU failing to take action against Hungary.

  47. No idea of the reliability of the poll in Con Home. Here are the results

    ” Our last monthly survey found about a quarter of respondents supporting Theresa May’s Chequers Plan. In the wake of her rebuff at Salzburg this week, backing for it has dropped to well under a tenth. Our panel has clearly given up almost altogether on the belief that it is practical or negotiable.

    Add it to the nine per cent who back an EEA option, plus the five per cent who want to postpone Brexit altogether, and one reaches 21 per cent. It’s striking that our last pre-EU referendum survey found Remain support at 22 per cent. We suspect that much the same people backed that option then who now support either Chequers, joining the EEA or scrapping Brexit now.

    The Canadian option has the most support of any option at over two in five respondents. Over a third want the Prime Minister to walk out of the talks altogether. That proportion may be boosted by this week’s deadlock but backing for it is clearly substantial. Under one per cent express no view at all.

    May’s statement yesterday looked tactical rather than strategic – a means of knocking the Chequers ball back into the EU’s court. There is no sign that the EU wants to knock it back. Our panel may not like the way in which the Prime Minister has been treated, but that doesn’t mean they back the plan to which she is sticking (at least publicly). Party conference and the run-up to it still look sticky for her today.”

  48. @Trevor Warne – “The “arbitration panel” is a sham. If they “happen upon” the answer ECJ wanted then great, but if not ECJ can put their foot down. Its a but like LAB’s 3quid membership and NEC ;)

    Possibly for the first time, in like forever, ALEC is almost right about something Brexit related!!”

    Thankyou for you praise. However, if I am being honest, it means little to have such praise from such a confused and eratic poster.

    On the matter of substance, not for the first time, you are wrong.

    The Ukraine/EU DCFTA Dispute Resolution Mechanism is based on conventional WTO systems, with a three person arbitration panel that can accept representations from both parties, as well as any other parties affected, and deliver a binding judgement within a maximum of 120 days. The ECJ is only involved to give guidance on matters of interpretation of EU law. If their is no element of EU law interpretation, the panel has total authority to confer a decision.

    Under the EU/Ukraine Association Agreement (a different agreement), Ukraine is obliged to follow EU rules including ECJ case law in most areas. Here, an Association Council seeks mutual agreement, but if agreement cannot be reached, or there is a matter of EU law interpretation, the Council must refer the decision to the ECJ, who will make a binding judgement. Ukraine is therefore directly tied to ECJ decisions.

    You were about as correct in this as in your idea of a UK War of the Roses. It sounds close, but is actually really, really wrong.

    Not for the first time, in, like……

  49. For those of you predicting that May will have a rough ride at the upcoming Tory conference , my prediction based on attending a number of Tory conferences over the years is no she won’t.
    Of course she will have her critic’s especially from that charlatan Johnson ,which no doubt will be reported with glee by some in the media.
    But the truth is May’s position as leader is secure for the present, realistically she has no real opposition at least non that can gather enough support to dispose her as PM.
    Tory conferences are not about replacing leaders that’s always done behind closed doors not in the open arena of a conference.
    My guess is there will be the usual round of policy announcements and aspirations the PM speech will be warmly received by the majority of the audience the press will as usual seize on anything that will make a good story with there own spin of course,then just like any other conference it will end and like Labour/Lib conferences before it, it will hardly register with the public at all .

  50. TURK

    The excitement started on Day 1 over with Jezza’s lot-Ladies’ Chapter.

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