A quick update on three new voting intention polls in the last day:

Survation for the Daily Mail have topline figures of CON 38%(+1), LAB 37%(-4), LDEM 10%(+4), UKIP 4%(+3). Fieldwork was done wholly on Friday, after the news of Boris Johnson’s seperation from his wife had broken and changes are from their poll earlier this week which had shown a four point Labour lead. The changes are from their poll at the start of the week that showed a four point Labour lead – obviously given the closeness of fieldwork those changes are more likely to be noise than a sudden surge in Lib Dem support within a matter of days! Full details are here.

BMG for the Independent have topline figures of CON 37%(nc), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 11%(+1), UKIP 7%(+2). Fieldwork was Tuesday to Friday and the (insignificant) changes are from last month. Full tabs are here.

Finally YouGov‘s weekly poll for the Times had headline figures of CON 39%(nc), LAB 35%(-2), LDDEM 11%(+1), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was on Monday and Tuesday, and changes are from last week. Full tables are here.

All three polls obviously show Labour and Conservative relatively close. Worth noting is that all three have the Liberal Democrats sneaking up into double figures, something that does seem to be part of a wider trend of the Liberal Democrats very gradually starting to recover support.


327 Responses to “Latest YouGov, BMG and Survation voting intention”

1 2 3 7
  1. Lab down, LD and UKIP up. Is this finally brexit having an effect?

  2. @Sam

    re your reply to me in last thread. Very helpful. Brexit has contributed to my problem but is far from being the only reason.

    I guess that part of the problem with Brexit is that it will expose us to the consequences of problems which membership of the EU has partially masked but which have existed all along. If we were a business which was intent on Brexit. I guess we would want to get a lot of things in place (like training more nurses and improving their retention rate) before we embarked on so hazardous an adventure,

  3. @hal

    As AW states in this very post and stresses the same point on numerous occasions about reading too much into single poll movements:

    “obviously given the closeness of fieldwork those changes are more likely to be noise than a sudden surge in Lib Dem support within a matter of days!”

  4. My university has set up a whole department and a Pro-Vice-Chancellor for Brexit. It is taking up a lot of resources. Moreover there are great worries about ERC funding applications.

  5. JamesB,

    I think you misread his post. The comment you quote was about the Survation poll only.

    My post was about all three together, which is more reliable data. And AW says
    “Worth noting is that all three have the Liberal Democrats sneaking up into double figures, something that does seem to be part of a wider trend…”, which is what my point was about.

  6. Charles

    Scotland’s NHS continues to draw polls showing high rates of satisfaction from users. There are certainly strains in the system. There are also more or less daily attacks on performance from media,including the BBC, that sit uneasily with the approval given by the public.

    I wish you well.

  7. As I expected the previous Survation poll proved to be a ‘rogue’. Anyone following polling should remember that the published MOE is a two-sigma confidence interval; one in twenty polls will be outside it. Furthermore one in three hundred (0.3%) will be outside three sigma. Considering the number of polls reported here we are bound to get a three-sigma excursion every year or two, just on pure statistical grounds.

    I put rather more faith in CMJ’s time series analysis, with its confidence limits, to identify trends.

  8. Sam – good to hear about NHS in Scotland.

  9. TREVOR WARNE & ANDREW111

    Replied to you both at the end of the previous thread.

  10. @ BZ / ANDREW – NI Assembly, power sharing.

    1st Executive 1998: UUP + SDLP (the two more moderate parties)

    The Executive and the two positions were suspended between 15 October 2002 and 8 May 2007 following a breakdown in trust between the parties

    2nd-4th (2007-2016): DUP+SF (the more extreme parties)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Minister_and_deputy_First_Minister_of_Northern_Ireland

    Apart from the first few years and the “chuckle brothers” years it hasn’t worked out as hoped

    This Electoral Reform piece seems somewhat biased to self congratulation IMHO. I can’t see how STV has helped but I’m not saying it has hindered either. From what I can make out whatever system you had would have resulted in the same power sharing outcomes in the past and the same will be true for the foreseeable future.
    https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/northern-irelands-voting-system-allows-for-a-more-diverse-open-politics/

    [1] A detailed historical analysis of shifts to the more extreme parties is tricky as there are lots of smaller parties, party names sometimes change/merge/split, defections have occurred, independents coming and going, the “rules” and seats have changed over time, etc. which is why I’ve simply shown the power sharing result.

  11. @Sam Thank you.

  12. Trevor

    It is fair to say that SF and the DUP became less extreme than they were in the past around the time they won more vote share.

  13. Tom of informs me (and man others) that the rumour is that Boris Johnson is busy collecting the 49 signatures he needs to launch a leadership bid. Anybody any idea if this is fake news or the truth and if the latter what the immediate implications might be?

  14. “Tom of informs me (and man others) ”

    ??

  15. Sweden – as there will be an election there tomorrow. The TV debate went so badly that at the end even the television station distanced itself from the Sweden Democrats (it is neo Nazi party by robots and currently). – it was their legal obligation as The statement breached the law.

    The viewers found The Moderates and the Christian Democrats The most appealing, followed by the Left. The Sweden Democrat candidate was at the bottom with 8%.

    We will see if YouGov’s end of August polling in Sweden was a complete flaw or they were right (YouGov put The fascists at almost 30%).

    The latest Ipsos (mind, 2nd of September) – in brackets is their voting share in the last elections). 12% of voters who said that they would vote haven’t made up their mind

    Socialdemocrats: 25.9 (26.5)
    Moderates (centre of the right coalition): 17.3 (16.9)
    Sweden Democrats: 16.8 (16.3l
    Left (kind of Marxist): 10.1 (10.7)
    Centrists (smallholders, petty bourgeois): 9.6 (9.6)
    There are further two centre of the right and the greens are likely to cross the threshold.

  16. If this is indeed the case, it is not good news.

    https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/trade-negotiations-post-brexit-what-uk-can-expect

    “I would add that it looks increasingly like most countries will want to renegotiate, that they will not be willing to let the UK just replicate, copy and paste agreements. Another example is Japan, which has already come out and clearly stated they will not be willing to just replicate the EU-Japan free trade agreement. They are going to demand more from the UK on labour mobility. They want more flexibility in terms of getting visas for their workers in the UK. They also are going to want a reduction in the UK’s auto tariffs and they are going to be willing to do less in their own domestic market on agriculture liberalisation. Another country, South Korea, has also indicated this as well. It is highly unlikely that the UK will be able to just replicate the deals it has now. It is going to wind up with lower quality access to foreign markets and have to give more in its own market.”

  17. Sam – very concerning, I agree. Thanks for posting it. Depressing.

  18. Sam

    Sounds encouraging (for me) if that Japanese visa flexibility extends both ways.

  19. Question :
    Where are the Lib Dem’s voters coming from ?
    Labour ?

  20. Sam
    The starting point of any of these negotiations will be the EU deal, and in every case we will get less than we have now. That has been pretty obvious from the start. Unless we give in quickly each deal will also take years.

    Unfortunately it was one of the many arguments on the Remain side which are too much in the future and too outside general knowledge to get across compared to £350million per week for the NHS.

  21. @ CHARLES
    “rumour is that Boris Johnson is busy collecting the 49 signatures he needs to launch a leadership bid. Anybody any idea if this is fake news or the truth and if the latter what the immediate implications might be?”

    The right wing MPs that want the hard Brexit already have the 49 to trigger a confidence vote. The problem is that 49 of 316 MPs won’t topple May. It would basically be Confidence in May vs No Confidence May.

    I don’t think No Confidence in May would get to a 100.

    So unless May resigns, no leadership election.

  22. @Charles

    I imagine that activity is going on behind the scenes. I don’t think that Johnson needs 49 signatures for a leadership, but that letters from 48 MPs would have to be sent to the Chief Whip expressing no confidence in Theresa May. There would then be a vote of no confidence amongst the Conservative MPs. If Theresa May loses the vote of no confidence (or decided to resign, for instance, if it was only a small victory for her*) then there would be a leadership election. Not sure how many people need to nominate you but it isn’t 49, probably just a few. I think that there will have a lot of activity over the summer trying to

    a) persuade as many Con MPs to be ready to vote for no confidence in Theresa May
    b) back certain potential contenders

    When they believe they can win a vote of no confidence then they will make sure that more than 48 letters are sent in, doing this too early without enough support could well mean that May survives, and any con leader surviving a vote of no confidence cannot be challenged again for one year. There is also the timing of the vote of no confidence to consider too, at what point do they want to take over? Also, just the threat could mean that May feels forced to keep them happy. This could be a win for them if they feel that, eg Boris Johnson taking over would be too much for other parts of the party who *might* then sit as an independent and threaten the tory + dup commons majority.

    *If May were to win by just a few votes then that would make her position difficult in some ways as a lot of the party would not be behind her but she has indicated that she would continue.

  23. @ProfHoward – “many others”!

  24. @AndrewIII

    “@Carfrew: If people had not read your posts trying to pretend Corbyn did not say he would “deal with graduate debt”, they might take your other posts more seriously!!“

    ———

    Yes, people in a hole try that sometimes, try and discredit the entirety of what someone says on some trumped up charge.

    It doesn’t alter the fact that your long post neglects that Ruskies may have been warning off other spies. Meanwhile, if previous posts discredit everything, well check your own contortions trying to defend LibDems!

    A recent high point being the way you tried to pass off the massive u-turn on austerity by saying that it was Clegg and that you stopped listening to Clegg!

    How very convenient. (Also, you made clear recently that despite attributing Iraq to long-gone Blair, you weren’t in such a hurry to forgive Labour on the matter).

  25. Sam

    “Scotland’s NHS continues to draw polls showing high rates of satisfaction from users. There are certainly strains in the system. There are also more or less daily attacks on performance from media, including the BBC, that sit uneasily with the approval given by the public.”

    The Scottish Household Survey puts some meat on those bones.

    file:///C:/Users/User/Desktop/Scottish%20Household%20Survey.pdf

    Page 20 compares satisfaction levels between all adults and users in 3 key services – health, schools, public transport.

    Inevitably, since a smaller section of the population uses education or public transport than health, the disparity between all adults and users is less in health.

    All : Users : Service

    82% : 83% : Health
    70% : 87% : Schools
    69% : 76% : Transport

  26. @AndrewIII

    “And in any case, even worse, I never in fact pretended Corbyn did not say that he would “deal with it”. I just pointed out that it did not inevitably mean that he would eliminate ALL the debt.

    Especially because he stated he was considering options like to “lengthen the period of time that “those that currently have a massive debt” have to pay it off.””

    https://fullfact.org/education/student-debt-what-did-labour-say/

    “Jeremy Corbyn didn’t commit to abolishing student debt before the last election, although he did say he would “deal with” the high debts of graduates and was looking at ways to do so.

    The official Labour policy for existing graduates was that they would be protected from above inflation interest rate rises on existing debt and Labour would “look for ways to ameliorate this debt burden in future.” This policy was not mentioned in the party’s manifesto.

    Mr Corbyn did say in an interview with NME magazine a week before the 2017 general election that he was “looking at” ways to reduce, ameliorate, or lengthen the period of time that “those that currently have a massive debt” have to pay it off. He also said he didn’t “have a simple answer for it at this stage”.”

  27. Oldnat
    Encouraging statistics. There has been a lot of (potentially unfair) politically motivated criticism of the education in scotland and I think it is encouraging to see a poll of what the people actually think.

  28. Prof Howard

    Here’s the actual link to the Scottish Household Survey

    https://www.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00539838.pdf

    Conducted face to face by Ipsos Mori with 10,680 adults, it is a useful resource for planning and policy development at both national and local level.

  29. Charles

    I am not sure I can provide any answers. It is beyond doubt, I think, that Johnson wants to be PM. It is only a matter of time before he tries to bring down Mrs May. it might be that he would want to put pressure on May at conference rather than try a vote of no confidence. Part of that pressure might be to have it put about that preparations are afoot for such a vote.

    Mrs May needs to try to hold on. She needs a last minute deal, if there is to be one. Will she get another frog?

    Johnson’s elevation would ensure a disorderly Brexit – which is acceptable to the majority of the party

  30. Sam
    “Johnson’s elevation would ensure a disorderly Brexit – which is acceptable to the majority of the party”
    You mean MPs or members? Wasn’t aware that a majority of either finds disorderly brexit acceptable.

  31. @Carfrew – the problem was not JC who, you are quite right, said he would “deal with” historic student debt, whatever that means.

    The problem was with his MPs/candidates who incorrectly repeated/retweeted the message with comments along the lines of “Vote Labour, eliminate your student debt”

  32. On the topic of party members showing more solidarity on Brexit issues, Holyrood Magazine is reporting an analysis of the SNP membership –

    Interesting detail from analysis of the SNP membership is the dramatic drop in anti-EU views in party since 2007 when 22% supported Indy outside EU & now at less than 10%.
    ……
    Actually, result of some members changing their minds on EU but also to do with Eurosceptic members drifting away. Interesting that one in 10 of recent new members in wake of the SNP walkout over Brexit at WM, had voted to leave EU.

  33. @Carftew

    Nice sense of humour failure! Congratulations!

  34. @Sam

    “Johnson’s elevation would ensure a disorderly Brexit – which is acceptable to the majority of the party”

    There certainly won’t be a coronation for Boris.

    To get to a stage of persuading the Tory rank and file to back him, he has to somehow depose the current PM, then persuade a sizeable chunk of MPs to place him either first or second on the MPs vote…..

  35. @AndrewIII

    Lol, so now you’re projecting misery upon me as well eh? Well I didn’t expect you to find it much fun Andrew!! But given the congrats we can have more of it if you like!

  36. I must say how encouraged I am with the rise of the ultra left wing in the Labour Party.
    I find it very good news that the centralist wing of the party is under attack by committed Corbyn activists within the party in there constituencies.
    Can I wish them the very best in achieving the goal of having single narrow party with everybody with one view with no tolerance for not only MP’s who don’t share the Corbyn vision but also for ordinary people who do not share the leaders views.
    Reminds me so much of Derek Hatton and his motley crew in Liverpool back in the day.
    All I can say is you keep going and you will be immensely popular with your fellow comrades who flock to the neosocialist flag masquerading as Corbynism and in doing so will make yourselves almost unelectable amongst the general population thus ensuring my party stays in power until at least yet another left wing attempt at a party coup fails and Labour can return to a broad church party and can look forward to power.

  37. @Andrew Myers

    “The problem was with his MPs/candidates who incorrectly repeated/retweeted the message with comments along the lines of “Vote Labour, eliminate your student debt”

    ——

    Oh God yeah, I don’t doubt it. Given the numbers of people involved and amount of media exposure these days there’s usually someone who goes off message. Though it’s sometimes someone quite low down the food chain. I was just challenged on what Corbyn said on the matter though, and it’s easy to address.

  38. @AndrewIII

    “Unfortunately it was one of the many arguments on the Remain side which are too much in the future and too outside general knowledge to get across compared to £350million per week for the NHS.”

    ———

    Well unaccountably you are leaving out the possibility that they don’t care about trade deals as much as some other things Remain failed to adequately address.

    Including the possibility that LDs being associated with Remain might have impacted polling, bit like how people rejected AV.

  39. “Can I wish them the very best in achieving the goal of having single narrow party with everybody with one view“

    ———-

    That had already happened though. The purge under New Labour, all that parachuting in, is why Corbyn doesn’t have much support among MPs.

    It’s normal in parties for this to happen, takeovers and purges. Militant tried to take over Labour, and also assorted Liberal types. Then others in the party fought back. Liberal sorts took over Tories too, and Thatcher marginalised the “wets”. Lately the Leavers etc. fought back and got rid of Cameron and Osborne. Orange Bookers took over the LDs.

    But the interesting thing, is that it’s coloured by the press. They give the oxygen that allows a lot of it to happen. Examples abound.

    Thus, when media didn’t like Cameron’s take on Leveson they attacked until he relented. They got him again later when he backed Remain. They don’t like Corbyn’s policies so keep giving the New Lab rivals oxygen and posted several articles a day so anyone could post their critique on the anti-Semite thing.

    Major copped a load of flak because some press didn’t like closer union and the Euro. Blair got an easy ride because his somewhat liberal views coincided with the press. Miliband though, they couldn’t find much on but not liking his policies they still dragged up stuff about sandwiches and his dad.

    So the real issue might be: do you want the country run by the press? Those who share similar views to the press might think politicians should cave, of course.

  40. @ Carfrew

    “Including the possibility that LDs being associated with Remain might have impacted polling, bit like how people rejected AV.”

    Interesting theory, hadn’t thought of that. So now the LibDems have whatever is the opposite of the Midas Touch. You could be onto something there.

  41. BARBAZENZERO: BBC Smiley series.

    “Both series are downloadable as torrents.”

    I had never heard of torrent before [just getting my head around ITV…]

    But looking it up there seem many torrents: which is the best/most appropriate for proggies such as the Smiley series please?

    Cheers,

    Paul

  42. “Here’s the actual link to the Scottish Household Survey

    https://www.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00539838.pdf

    Conducted face to face by Ipsos Mori with 10,680 adults, it is a useful resource for planning and policy development at both national and local level.“

    ——-

    Good spot, and it is indeed useful.

    Was struck by the fact that the numbers who felt they had local influence were increasing a bit, from 20 to 23%, however the number who felt they’d like to be more involved fell from 38 to 33%.

    No questions in the report about polling though, so there’s room for improvement.

  43. Just reading through Karen Bradley’s interview and did a bit of googling.

    Apparently Northern Ireland is attached to the same bit of land as “Ireland” but is to the North of it [which explains the name I suppose.]

    Someone should tell Karen otherwise she might end up in the wrong bit – must be easily done.

    Over here we’ve been much cleverer and we call Northern England “Scotland” so that you don’t end up there by mistake.

  44. R&D

    :-)

  45. A Chris Williamson interview of C4 News really showed the gulf between the Centrists & Project Corbyn.

    The Q&A went something like:-
    Q- Are you intent on deselecting MPs who don’t agree with Corbyn?
    A-This is just Members deciding who they want to represent them-its normal in lots of countries.MPs are a tiny % of the total Membership.
    Q-But they have been elected by the voters.
    A-But the voters only voted for them because they were supported by The Labour Party. Party Members & Activists put them infront of voters.

    Its life Jim -but not as we know it.

  46. ON, SAM, Prof Howard:

    Satisfaction surveys are hard to interpret, because it`s uncertain whether people are commenting on the workers` performance in the service or the quality and quantity of the provision.

    But there`s no doubt that satisfaction has declined sharply in Scotland,, as recorded in 2017.

    ON didn`t tell that only 52% of those surveyed were satisfied with the three services, and that this was the lowest level of satisfaction since the surveys began 11 years ago..

    I think there will be a further sharp decline in 2018, and that a root cause is Brexit. In Scotland this has resulted in many unfilled posts in the NHS, and waiting times have shot up since 2015, as I have reported earlier on UKPR.

  47. Colin

    What are the “Centrists” at the “centre” of? Are they the same people who were previously described as “Moderates” and, if so, what were they moderate on?

    I do find this NuSpeak unilluminating.

  48. ON

    With John Major and “bastards” I felt things were a lot clearer.

  49. ROSIEANDDAISIE

    It’s a bit late now, but I’ll post a very basic primer re torrents on the previous thread tomorrow.

  50. Davwel

    But ON provided the link to the full Report!

    I used to use these annual surveys when I was working. The Local Authority data (which I generally found more useful) should be available in November.

    Where people want to make claims about the national picture, based on their local complaints (as you do) then the local data is infinitely preferable.

    Since the full SHS dataset contains around 11,000 cases with each case having approximately 3,000 variables, you can check for which variables are particularly relevant in your area (not that I can anymore, as I no longer have access to that level of software).

    From someone still active in the field, however, I understand that the main contributor to the decline in satisfaction level for all 3 services combined is strongly linked to a reduction in satisfaction with transport among those who are satisfied with health and school provision.

    As with the flora and fauna that you study, the interactions among the variables affecting humans are also very complex!

    Your suggestion may be accurate – or wholly misleading.

1 2 3 7