Two new voting intention polls out today, one from ICM in the Guardian and one from YouGov in the Times.

Topline figures from ICM are CON 39%(-1), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 6%(+1). Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, and changes are from a fortnight ago. Clearly there is no significant change from the previous poll, and Labour and the Conservatives remain extremely close. Tabs for the ICM poll are here.

YouGov meanwhile have topline figures of CON 39%(+1), LAB 35%(-3), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 7%(+1). Fieldwork was a little more recent, between Wednesday and Thursday, and changes are from last week. The 35% figure for Labour here is their lowest since the general election. The usual caveats apply – it’s a single poll, so while that could be an indication that the ongoing Labour infighting over antisemitism has knocked their support, it could also just be normal sample variation. Wait to see if other polls show a similar drop before getting too excited. On best Prime Minister May leads Corbyn by 36%(+4) to 22%(-3), with 39% of people saying not sure. YouGov’s regular Brexit tracker found 42% saying Britain was right to vote to Leave, 45% saying it was wrong.


613 Responses to “Latest ICM and YouGov voting intentions”

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  1. Graham,

    I think the 2017 election was too early for brexit to have been the overriding issue. Probably it still is if the election was tomorrow.

    But I think many here would agree it has the potential to become the number one issue *after* brexit (assuming it happens, that is) because of the changes it will bring. This of course depends very strongly on how it happens.

  2. I spoke to a friend who lives in the Kelvinside district of Glasgow – a very nice part of that town. He says that many Scottish nationalists in fact are quite strongly eurosceptic – broadly defined – and that this is not without complication for SNP.

  3. Not just one ferret, better half a dozen per UKIP leader candidate.

  4. Prof Howard

    I spoke to a friend who lives in the Langside district of Glasgow – a very nice part of that town. He says that 29% of Tories in Scotland are in favour of staying in the EU – and that is not without complication for SCon.

    Of course, I’d have dismissed that as just an anecdote from an individual (and therefore of no value) if he hadn’t been talking about an actual poll

    https://stv.tv/news/politics/1427371-almost-half-of-scots-want-a-referendum-on-brexit-deal/

  5. Interesting and surprising to see Rasmussen tweeting that Donald Trump’s approval rating among black voters has doubled in 12 months

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

    Oldnat – interesting.

  6. By the way my friend in Glasgow is an international expert on politics and makes this his area of work so not just a random draw from the population. I have always regarded him as a person of exceptional insight.

  7. Prof Howard

    I find the Independent’s (not unbiased) coverage of that same poll “interesting” too.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-referendum-no-deal-snp-poll-yougov-peoples-vote-jeremy-corbyn-nicola-sturgeon-a8493351.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1534369763

    Neither the Independent nor Kellner has ever shown much comprehension of the different nuances in Scottish politics.

    The FM has made it clear that she has no objections to a second Brexit referendum in the UK, but anyone who imagines that the SNP taking a strong lead in advocating that probably has little understanding of rUK politics – much less Scottish ones!

  8. Prof Howard

    Any “international expert on politics” who doesn’t know that there is a group supporting indy who are “eurosceptic – broadly defined” wouldn’t be much of an expert!

    No disrespect to your pal – but that’s hardly news!

    The poll result “There is a high level of distrust about the UK Government taking the right decisions on Brexit, with 70% distrustful and 21% the opposite.” would also suggest that a significant number of UK Unionists are “UK sceptics – broadly defined”.

    You don’t need to be a total fan of any particular political union arrangement to consider that it might be the best available option at any particular time, despite its drawbacks.

  9. Number Crucher has a new VI poll

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/voting-intention-2018-08-15.pdf

    Polldrums – small Lab lead in GB and wee Scots sample in line with proper polling.

    The ethnicity crossbreaks might have the gammons increasing their dye content! :-)

  10. Another legal challenge to Brexit

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/14/british-expats-in-eu-launch-brexit-legal-challenge?CMP=share_btn_tw

    “arguing that the result has been invalidated by the Electoral Commission’s ruling on leave campaign spending.”

    No idea whether it has legal merit (other than to the benefit of lawyers’ incomes) but it always seemed to me that the best way out of this mess was for May to adopt the Captain Renault tactic.

    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=casabalanca+i%27m+shocked&view=detail&mid=42613BCDF150662F75BB42613BCDF150662F75BB&FORM=VIRE

  11. @Tony BTG
    ‘Yes, so effective he lost – while the Tories won the most seats by wrapping themselves in the flag and promising an orderly and positive Brexit outcome.’

    But he definitely did win the campaign – if the polling at the outset is compared with the final outcome!

  12. OLDNAT

    “Legal action by ex-pats.”

    Rosie thinks that an ex-Pat is someone who used to be Irish.

  13. R&D

    As applications for Irish (and thus EU) citizenship soar, I wonder if there are any such folk?

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