YouGov’s regular poll for the Times this week shows another Labour lead, with topline figures of CON 36%(-1), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 7%(+1). Fieldwork was on Monday and Tuesday, and changes are from the middle of last week. We’ve now had four polls with fieldwork after the Davis/Johnson resignations – two from YouGov, one each from Opinium and Deltapoll – and all four have shown the Conservatives falling back behind Labour.

YouGov also found 40% in favour of a referendum on whether or not to accept the final deal, 42% of people were opposed – the highest level of support for a second referendum that YouGov have found so far with this tracker.

There was less support for Justine Greening’s idea of a “three-way” referendum between remain, Theresa May’s deal or no deal: only 36% thought that should happen, 47% were opposed. In the event it did go ahead, people said they would vote to stay – on first preferences support stands at Remain 50%, Leave with the deal 17%, Leave without the deal 33%. Once leaving with the deal has been eliminated and second preferences reallocated, the final figures would be 55% remain, 45% leave with no deal.


1,191 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 36, LAB 41, LDEM 9, UKIP 7”

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  1. Shevii
    I don’t remember any of it in any great detail, I’m afraid, it was his insufferable smugness which I objected to mainly. I’ve taken it from St Homas’ gnomic interjection that he/she is wishing us to imply that they are working on Brexit in some advisory capacity, in which case, and in my opinion, we’re probably even more bug*ered than we thought we were already.

  2. ED

    St Homas was (and may well still be) a female.

  3. ON – to be technical they have voted not to automatically adopt hence triggering a full open selection contest where he can stand assuming he gets nominated.

    I expect same thing to happen with Hoey and probably Stringer, although there is less noise from his local party at present.

    Mann may get a chance as he has voted with HMG less often, up to his local party of course.

    Hopkins suspended so he can’t re-stand as is anyhow but I would expect a full selection contest in his seat even if he is re-admitted.

    NB) Some Labour members want to run full contests every time automatically like the SNP do I believe.

  4. Jim Jam

    Thanks for the clarification.

  5. Jolly nice of Corbyn’s supporters to start deselecting it’s MP’s a few more and the Tories won’t need the DUP ,unless of course all those happy new independents feel they still owe Corbyn’s Labour there support.

  6. I see that Alastair Campbell has come out in wanting the suspension of the Aberdeen Labour party ended.

    Alastair was up in Aberdeen to support his football team, Burnley, playing the Dons. Our papers have pictures of him meeting a smiling Barney Crockett, onetime messager on UKPR, and printed a lengthy column about the unnecessary suspension.

    No doubt I will get derided here by our regular SNP supporters for approving a Labour-Tory coalition. But when no party has an absolute majority coalitions are necessary, and after elections have delivered such results there is no time to seek approval from national party headquarters.

    Barney seems to be doing a good job as Lord Provost, and it is surely beneficial for him to have been on the streets before the match mixing with the Burnley supporters. Both groups enjoyed the game, and hopefully the pleasantries will continue for the second leg in Lancashire.

  7. I just checked ON and whilst the local party has no authority to do so they are calling for the Labour Whip to be removed, same for Hoey I think.

    I would have to check the rules to see if sitting MPs can be denied shortlisting for selection (irrelevant if whip removed) but in any event chances of either standing for Labour at the next GE at slim it would seem.

  8. Turk,

    This is mainstream members annoyed at the 4 Labour MPs supporting HMG in crucial votes nothing to do with momentum or Corbyn.

    Whilst I accept that if I was a member in those seats I might know the MP and support them despite their voting record from afar I believe I would be voting against automatic re-adoption.

  9. David Torrance – the well known political author who is an expert on the SNP – has written a new report on intergovernmental relations within the United Kingdon:

    https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8371

  10. Carfrew (11:53pm)
    “In the early eighties,…”

    I was talking about the situation now and after Brexit.

    Maraan (1:50am)
    “And yet you repeat your opinion that people drift to the political right as they age as some kind of universal truth again and again…Of course, the current cohort aged between 65-85, who let’s face it are currently determining UK politics with their nostalgia for a time that never was, have always tended towards the right wing ”

    I only have to keep saying it because others keep insisting that the Remainers and the left in general will inevitably triumph as the older generations die off. People of around 65-80 now are veterans of the Summer of Love, hippiedom and the Year of Revolutions – 1968. Hardly traditional right-wing things, and yet now we are all apparently some kind of cross between Colonel Blimp and Corporal Jones.

  11. Davwel

    “But when no party has an absolute majority coalitions are necessary”.

    Actually, they are not necessary.

    You refer to the urgent need to create an administration after the elections. Again, a number of councils see no such need.

    See this BBC report from May 2017

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-40031177

    You may care to note that a variety of arrangements are made by local councillors for the governance in their area.

    I don’t think anyone “derided” you concerning your previous contributions on this topic, although I certainly expressed surprise that you didn’t know that SLab had slumped from 1st to 3rd place in terms of the number of councillors, and weren’t actually running the council, with Tory support.

    Obviously, Barney and his merry band are perfectly entitled to join a coalition with the Tories. What they can’t expect is to be elected on a national party ticket, then defy the national party’s ruling, and not be suspended from membership.

  12. @Peter C

    “Except, people are still spending if not more, they are buying products all be it online rather than on the high street, tax revenues are relatively robust, investment isn’t high enough but not far from trend, all be it we have a poor record, jobs are increasing and unemployment is down , though many of the jobs aren’t great and cuts have stabilised.”

    ——-

    Well, after the economy flatlined the government changed policy somewhat, and enacted the housing stimulus. Then you have to take into account other new forms of stimulus like QE, and then there’s the growth resulting from all the immigration. Some calculate that such growth as we have had is mostly accounted for by this immigration.

    So Keynes hasn’t been busted, there was still that need for stimulus, it’s just that methods of stimulus have evolved to include more methods that don’t require immediate government borrowing.

  13. @Pete B

    “I was talking about the situation now and after Brexit.”

    ——

    Well you talked about being made redundant which in the past you talked of happening to you in the eighties.

    It’s a really spurious attempt to dismiss the argument, because my point is the same factors still apply now. People nowadays who haven’t benefitted from the policies of full employment we used to have, aren’t generally in as good a position if made redundant, for all the reasons I gave.

  14. Fascinating talk of Gina Miller – the high profile business woman and campaigner – as the potential future leader of a newly re-launched and re-energised centre party ( Lib Dems ).

  15. Prof Howard

    Torrance is hardly “an expert on the SNP”. He has written a lot about it (though frequently rewritten much the same article describing how terrible they are! :-) )

    Thanks for the link to the paper he has authored (though it should be stressed that it is written in his new role as a HoC Library researcher, and should be politically impartial).

    I fear that he has not yet totally adjusted to his new role, though perhaps he has leeway to continue a degree of bias.

    Unless I missed it, he seems to make no reference to the renaming of “the Scotland Office” as “the UK Government in Scotland” and he continues the somewhat improper journalistic habit of occasionally referring to the “Scottish Government” as “the SNP” (eg p15).

    The section on the Sewel Convention is seriously deficient, in that it makes no reference to the judgment of the Supreme Court in the Miller case.

    Other than that, it seems to be a useful, if pedestrian, coverage of the relevant legislation, MoUs etc.

  16. ON;

    Thanks for that link on how councils in Scotland arranged coalitions in May 2017.

    I don`t think anybody in the NE considers that over the last 14 months the Aberdeen City coalition has been carrying out Tory policies, as expressed by Theresa May and Philip Hammond, despite being the Tories being the larger party in the coalition.

  17. JimJam
    It’s mainstream members not momentum or Corbyn

    Somehow I find that highly unlikely ,certainly those concerned seem to think it’s Corbyns Momentum supporters behind there impending deselection.
    But regardless of who is behind it the Tories will be highly delighted and amused after all if MPs are being deselected because there not towing the party line then why did Corbyn not share the same fate after all he voted against the Labour whip 428 times.

  18. Davwel

    Since May and Hammond largely talk about policies for England, I’m not sure that their expressions are particularly relevant.

    Given the significant lack of policies for councils in Scotland from either Davidson or Leonard, I’d be hard pushed to identify anything other than hardcore Unionism from either!

    That isn’t really the point, however.

    The SLab executive refused permission for Barney et al to join a coalition with the Tories, and were defied by the councillors who had been elected under their banner.

    I am neither defending nor attacking the SLab Executive decision, simply reporting what is common knowledge, and correcting some of your misunderstandings of how councils in Scotland actually operate.

  19. Turk: pretty simple – Corbyn’s local party agreed with him about the things he rebelled about or didn’t care. Field’s and Hoey’s disagree and care enough to do something about it. This isn’t Corbyn taking action, it’s local members. Momentum don’t have enough members (something like 5% of Labour members are also in Momentum) to do this on their own even if they wanted to, and Corbyn doesn’t have control over Momentum.

  20. TURK

    @” why did Corbyn not share the same fate after all he voted against the Labour whip 428 times.”

    :-)

  21. Colin: My reaction is-why are the Spanish voters not punishing the elected representatives responsible at the ballot box?. I try to imagine what would happen in this country if these two matters were exposed by the Press & not addressed by national & local politicians.
    Wouldn’t there be an almighty row-complaints, petitions ?. Wouldn’t an opposition political party leap at the chance to expose their opponents failures?

    We in the UK are in the same position with regard to breaches of urban air quality standards, and I haven’t noticed any governments or local authorities being kicked out by the outraged populace. And the Grenfell fire was at least as egregious a failure of government oversight as the Spanish train crash: by the standards of your claims for the effectiveness of popular outrage on this side of the Channel, government heads should have been rolling in the gutters of Kensington. Doesn’t seem to have happened

    As well, there are plenty of beneficial things that governments in this country have done, but might not have done without the EU holding them to the straight and narrow. The EU is not a substitute for effective national government: but it can be useful spur to it.

  22. SOMERJOHN

    There is a Public Enquiry & Police investigation-both ongoing-in respect of Grenfell. I hope & expect that there will be heads rolling.

    So far as the local Council in Kensington is concerned I seem to remember that there were senior resignations after the fire . Has there been an opportunity for residents to express a view at the LA ballot box yet?-perhaps not.

    I notice that the two Spanish train companies involved are State Enterprises & that the State Investigative body was connected to them & to consultants working for them according to your linked report.

    This looks a bit like a State cover up. As a matter of interest, can you tell me what the Political Party not in power at that time has had to say about those allegations .

  23. @ Pete B

    “People of around 65-80 now are veterans of the Summer of Love, hippiedom and the Year of Revolutions – 1968.”

    I find this an interesting topic, and was wondering if those on here older than me can help out with some ideas. I was a mere toddler in 1968, so can’t say I was directly influenced by the Summer of Love. But my parents were of the right age. However they both had relatively lowly jobs and were struggling to bring up two young children in a provincial (and frankly rather boring) town. So I suspect they weren’t much touched by the Summer of Love either. I wonder how true that was for the vast majority of people in the UK at that time.

    In retrospect, and with no direct knowledge of the times, I suspect the “great 60’s revolution” was rather limited in geography and scope, and the vast majority of the UK population were not that impressed. Another metropolitan bubble effect, before we had that name for it. Now, in the longer term I think it has led to different attitudes in more of the population, but I suspect it took a long time for that to happen. To summarise, my feeling is that it’s taken a couple of generations for that “revolution” to ripple out into the general conciousness, while it didn’t necessarily change most of the generation who were around at the time, but not living in a small, fashionable, (and probably rather wealthy) district of London.

    To put it another way, how about a poll of people who lived through the sixties. Was it:

    a) All beautiful rock and roll, drugs and peace
    b) Squallor and despair a la “Withnail and I”
    c) Just ordinary working day drudgery

    Anyone of the right age care to spare a thought?

  24. Those interested in NI might want to have a look at this report on “Northern Ireland’s Income and Expenditure in a Reunification scenario”

    https://senatormarkdaly.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/research-on-northern-ireland-income-and-expenditure.pdf

    Perhaps the popular assumptions being made about NI’s fiscal deficit are not altogether accurate.

  25. Jo

    I’m surprised you don’t see that Corbyn thought 428 times to vote against the Labour whip was perfectly ok. But by his silence condones the deselection of his own MP’s for doing exactly the same thing.
    The fact that his own local party agreed with him presumably 428 times, doesn’t stop him being a hypocrite of the first order.

  26. TrigGuy

    I got married on 1 Aug 1968 (so Golden Wedding next week).

    So my “Summer of Love” was rather narrowly focussed, and while I was aware of the revolutions, was somewhat more concerned by the need to face the “revolution” in my own life!

  27. @ Turk

    I’m not so sure about Frank Field, but the case of Kate Hoey seems to me to be clearer. Her views are quite different from her voters and members of her party in the constituency. We’ve said before on this site that it’s difficult to reconcile her views with any faction of the Labour party, she’s a bit of a one-off.

    It’s fine and proper that an MP has the freedom to vote as they like, and I believe that is the right way to do things. But if they are so completely out of tune with their constuency and local party, as seems to be the case here, then the local constituents and party also have the right to object. That’s democracy in action. Corbyn at least seems to be consistent on supporting democracy.

  28. @ ON

    Congratulations. If you’ve lasted 50 years, you must have got something right.

  29. TRIGGUY

    I’m 65, so was 15 in the ‘Summer of Love’. The 60s were a wonderful time to be a teenager. It was easy to get a Saturday job for some cash, and there was so much going on in music and fashion.

    And, of course, there were groundbreaking social changes: The abolition of capital punishment, abortion law reform, legalisation of male homosexuality et cetera et cetera.

    It was great to be alive.

  30. And to describe somebody as ‘straight’ was a reference to their sexuality. It meant that they didn’t smoke pot!

  31. Sorry. That should have read

    Describing someone as ‘straight’ was not a reference to their sexuality.

  32. Congratulations Oldnat on your anniversary.

  33. “Firms in Northern Ireland will remain within the UK, so there will not be and cannot legally be customs checks for goods produced in Northern Ireland when travelling to the rest of the UK.”

    This is saying that although there will be two classes of goods crossing a customs border there cannot be checks on one of those classes. It follows by definition that there cannot be checks to determine which class the goods are in, since such a checking system would necessarily have to check goods that can’t be checked in order to determine that they.are goods that can’t be checked.

    So the process must be carried out without physical checks. The very thing we are told is impossible to do and probably illegal if it’s proposed between the 6 and the 26.

    I am not enough of an expert to know whether systems free of physical checks at a customs frontier where some goods would pass legally and some not are possible and legal, but I am certain that they either are or they aren’t. The can’t be unicorns in the one case and fine in the other.

  34. @ Valerie

    You’re making me feel jealous now. Still, at least I still had the benefit of listening to all the music once I’d realised that I shouldn’t just listen to the current chart hits.

    I sometimes think the real influence on my generation came through all the weird and wonderful children’s TV that was produced in the late sixties and early seventies.

  35. Triggy

    As a fully paid up weekend hippy of the sixties my recollection is the “summer of love” was it was largely a newspaper headline rather than fact.
    I was an engineering apprentice working in Devenport Dockyard most of the time I was skint but my passion was music ,motorbikes and girlfriends fortunately apart from the later things that didn’t need much cash.
    Nobody I knew had any money ,went to university or owned a house but none of those things mattered much as we were all in the same boat.
    Personally I don’t think there’s that much difference between myself in my teens and my grandchildren today we were equally self obsessed with our own lives and friends ,if anything I think my generation was a little more independent and less reliant on others to sort our problems out but that was mainly because many of the things now taken for granted didn’t exist then.
    Certainly people have a higher standard of living now and better access to medical treatments ,education and technology has exceeded my wildest dreams apart from spaceships.
    Were we happier then well I think most generations look back through rose tinted spectacles so I would say no much the same as today.
    What’s the biggest difference between now and then strangely on how people react to each other not much,except my grandchildren seem to be surgically attached to there mobile phones and have a little to much belief in what appears on the screen without questioning were or who the information comes from.
    But you could say that observation was a generation thing, we never had a phone at home then,certainly laptops, mobiles were things of fiction then.
    The only thing I can say is I grew up in a loving family we never had much money but that didn’t really matter much it laid a good foundation for myself and my brother to go on and have relatively successful careers and I think the same applies today with the right encouragement today’s generation will do exactly the same thing with a little less reliance on “The Government “ to sort there lives out and a little bit more self belief.

  36. Trigguy @ 7.36 pm

    I am sure that your description of life in 1968 is true for almost all the UK, fitting with your c) – the usual steady drudgery.

    I had recently married, and my wife had moved from planning in Lancaster, making development plans for the Lune Valley and the Lancs Lakeland (e.g. Tarn Hows) to Aberdeen Planning. So she had a lot of drudgery jobs, fiddling with small tasks. Like being sent out with a surveyor`s chain to prove that the Aberdeen Architect Department had erected the new Town House in the wrong place, blocking views of Marischal College. The two departments were at loggerheads!

    But compared to the fifties, young ladies could sport mini-skirts, and, combined with the measuring chain, halt the traffic in Broad Street,

  37. Davwel

    Some things don’t change. Views of Marischal College still being blocked by the Cooncil!

    Still, you must have missed that brief spell when miniskirts had reached Aberdeen – but tights hadn’t.

  38. Dominic Cummings has certainly gone on flight that’s taken him way beyond the plausible and through the unlikely to fantasy. Although neither he nor the view he presents has a monopoly on that.

    But on the further vote he has on point at least that I think is not readily dismissed. If the Government passes this one back to the electorate, who’s to say they won’t give an even worse hospital pass back than last time?

    Further vote Remainers might consider this more I think. The electorate gave the “wrong” answer once. Why the presumption they won’t do so again?

    Polls were quoted. A poll on a triple hypothetical (a referendum not yet called to ask a question not yet set on a deal not yet settled) falls in the “tie-rack in a vicarage” category of usefulness imv, but even if you give them credence, they’re hardly nailed on. The Remain lead was bigger last time in the period before the question was set and the deal done.

    If I might essay another sporting metaphor, the “peoples vote” doesn’t hand a place in the next round to the losing side. It hands them a replay. Against the side that outplayed them last time.

    I’m a fan of looking at the UK/ EU relationship on a continuum scale of possibles running from 1-10, where 1 is WTO, 10 is superstate, 5 is EEA (BINO if you like), 6 is the Cameron remain.

    On that scale I’d say the equivalent of the Overton window on this has moved about in the 4-6 region for years. It’s currently at the lower end. But no lower.

    Put crudely I think the Government’s publically stated position is at about 3.5. Labour is at about 4.5 on a “respect the vote” line but could obviously live with 6. The EU has existing relationships at 3, 4 and 5. Even if the EU is reluctant to deal in decimal points there’s a deal to be done.

    I am almost certain one will be. After we go right to the brink. At the EU it always is, and always at the brink. An odd mix of cynicism and complacency perhaps, but it’s where I am.

    I guess it will be in the 4-5 range. Perhaps something that’s really 5 but has some token smoke and mirrors to allow the Government to sell it as a 4.

    Presumably the “peoples vote” then comes down to a choice of 1, 4/5 or 6.

    I think 4/5 would win. It’s perfect for no one but it’s still kind of the goldilocks option. And it’s where the majority probably is. But with the current cussed electorate, who knows? Is it wise of those who would remain, but know that the best on offer at present is a 6 (and even that failed to get a majority in 2016) to chuck that deal to an electorate that might just go for 1 after all?

  39. Trigguy,

    My feeling (not backed up by polling evidence) is that the hippies were very much a minority but attitudes thawed more widely, and many social reforms were carried out during the Wilson administrations.

    A lot of people disapproved, and the Thatcher period was widely seen as the revenge of the squares. The political views of the cohort of what were then young adults suggests there were more squares than hippies.

  40. PeterW

    “10 is superstate”

    As they say in the media “Other Unions are available” and the UK one seems to be reversing the direction of travel and moving rapidly towards a 10 on your scale.

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/16383557.fund-to-replace-eu-money-after-brexit-will-be-in-westminsters-hands/?ref=twtrec

    “The UKSPF will operate across the UK. The government will of course respect the devolution settlements in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and will engage the devolved administrations to ensure the fund works for places across the UK,”

    Since the devolution settlements are being disrespected by Westminster (and nothing makes that clearer than the cynical arguments of the Advocate-General at the Supreme Court) then the electorates in the devolved countries may become even more “cussed” and disrespect Westminster even less than they currently do.

  41. Useful summary of some key conclusions and recommendations from the HoC Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Commiittee report on Facebook, Cambridge Analytica and Russia.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jul/28/dcms-report-fake-news-disinformation-brexit-facebook-russia

    Interesting that the Committee concluded that Aaron Banks failed to convince them that his £8m donation to Leave EU had come from within the UK and that the National Crime Agency are investigating his links with Russian officials and companies.

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