YouGov’s regular poll for the Times this week shows another Labour lead, with topline figures of CON 36%(-1), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 7%(+1). Fieldwork was on Monday and Tuesday, and changes are from the middle of last week. We’ve now had four polls with fieldwork after the Davis/Johnson resignations – two from YouGov, one each from Opinium and Deltapoll – and all four have shown the Conservatives falling back behind Labour.

YouGov also found 40% in favour of a referendum on whether or not to accept the final deal, 42% of people were opposed – the highest level of support for a second referendum that YouGov have found so far with this tracker.

There was less support for Justine Greening’s idea of a “three-way” referendum between remain, Theresa May’s deal or no deal: only 36% thought that should happen, 47% were opposed. In the event it did go ahead, people said they would vote to stay – on first preferences support stands at Remain 50%, Leave with the deal 17%, Leave without the deal 33%. Once leaving with the deal has been eliminated and second preferences reallocated, the final figures would be 55% remain, 45% leave with no deal.


1,819 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 36, LAB 41, LDEM 9, UKIP 7”

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  1. @ Oldnat

    You are not the first to have mentioned rationing in my presence this week. It reminded me that the purpose rationing was introduced was not fairness (as it is often portrayed) but economics; it was designed to beat inflation which, in wartime is a danger to national security not just economic security.
    What is to be noted were the unintended consequences of that rationing: positively it bred a sense of “all in this together”, was probably good for public health and got the public used to the ideas of economic planning as a tool of state: negatively it certainly led to higher crime.

    I do wonder however if the imposition of rationing in peacetime will be accepted in the modern age: my only experience of rationing was the petrol ration books introduced by the Heath Government during the oil crisis, I was only 11 but as I recall people were outraged.

  2. WB61

    Although my mention of rationing was humorous, I don’t expect it to happen.

    The only reason for it [1] would certainly not be fairness under this government (or probably any other at Westminster).

    As Craig Dalzell has pointed out, the very suggestion of stockpiling might seriously affect the poor now, as prices rise in response to increased demand.

    https://thecommongreen.scot/2018/07/29/demanding-supplies-supplying-demand/

  3. [1] The rationing of bread post WWII is a good example of how it was nothing to do with supply limits, or sharing a scarce resource equally, but just a response to the need to secure an international deal with governments in the USA and Canada.

  4. PTRP

    Tell you what mate.

    You email me your CV as it relates to International Trade .I’ll compare it with Falconer’s & decide who to listen to.

    Can’t say fairer than that eh?

    oh-you asked me “why Germany out exports us to Sierra Leone a former colony ”

    That certainly sounded disappointing-so I checked the numbers: which are :-

    Exports to Sierra Leone -$ Millions

    From Germany -25.39
    ( 2017-Trade Economics)
    From UK-56.0
    ( 2016-OPEC)

    UK is Sierra Leone’s 5 largest importer after China, USA, India & UAE.

    You might be interested in this too :-

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-commits-to-free-trade-with-sierra-leone-after-brexit-by-guy-warrington-british-high-commissioner

  5. This discussion of globalisation and the ne0 thing reminds me to the discussions at the end of the 1990s and early 2000 (the hyperglobalisation theorem). It was boring then and it’s boring today.

    There is no globalisation – there is regionalisation according the figures of foreign trade and foreign direct investment. There are odd exceptions (France in particular) and of course we have the rise of China since then, but their pattern in internationalisation (apart from their seeking raw materials and energy, which is in a way old fashioned tributary foreign policy ) fits pretty well with the Korean and Japanese internationalisation.

    So what the data actually shows is huge internationalisation within regions and flow of goods and services and investment among three main regions. Surely, it is not globalisation.

    In addition, behavioural differences of multinational companies (that include their competitive advantages) are still traceable to the home country, the boards in most cases are still dominated by home country managers, and so on.

    Foreign trade and FDI do some useful tricks. For example, increasing productivity for the domestic market reduces the rate of return, in international trade it actually increases the ROI.

    ———-

    I don’t consider, by the way, GDP as useful data (nobody should – unless you really think that real estate agents really create value), thus any argument using that is flawed by definition.

  6. Deltapoll tweet (no other details yet)

    we asked Leave voters in Britain to choose between leaving the #EU and peace in #NorthernIreland. Nearly 6 out of 10 said the UK leaving the EU was more important.

    I’m quite surprised that 4/10 Leavers (mainly in England, obviously) were prepared to put peace in Ireland as a priority.

    There’s hope for humanity yet!

  7. @Colin

    “Tell you what mate”

    Why yer gon all estuary all ov a sudden? I knew you was a Home Counties geezer an all that caper, but you sound like you’ve gone the whole hog, me ol’ teapot.

    :-)
    .

  8. CB11

    You may be wrong to be concerned. Mating rituals do vary across geographical locations, but the quest to find a mate is universal.

  9. CB11

    me alter ego -innit ?

  10. Colin,
    ” I think they believe very firmly in multi lateral trade agreements.-globalisation. And they are warning that it has got a bad name because it leaves some people behind.”

    This is one danger, but going back to Adam Smith, he warned that governments must intervene to regulate markets, and this is just as true between nations as inside them. The normal situation in history has been for free trade to mean exploitation of a weaker country by a stronger. We have transitioned from a stronger nation to a weaker one.

    Norbold,
    ” in a few years, none of it will be related to Brexit. No-one will know what life would have been like if the opposite outcome had obtained. ”

    I’m not at all sure that is true. As much as there are those irrationally opposed to membership, there are those irrationally committed to membership. The fundamental leave arguments, about sovereignty, are weak or meaningless to remainers. Remainers would accept far worse terms for membership than we have now because they ideologically believe in it.

    I do not believe that leaving the EU now will settle the question of Uk membership. Britain being on the verge of joining will overhang any international relations we may have in the forseeable future (if we leave).

  11. DANNY

    @” governments must intervene to regulate markets, and this is just as true between nations as inside them.”

    Absolutely agree.

    (this is becoming a habit Danny :-) )

  12. Colin, funny, I had noticed that too. Armageddon approaches. Or as someone has it, popcorn time.

  13. Bigfatron: You see, there, you’re just listing a bunch of other things you don’t like. I honestly don’t see what privatisation of public services, or the reduction in the power of trade unions, has to do with globalisation. As for the others:

    House/rental prices: just build more houses. This is dangerously close to “foreigners using the NHS” nativism.
    Tax competition reducing tax take: honestly this is a vastly overexaggerated problem. The way some people talk you’d think slashing corporation tax was the only was countries could stay business-friendly, which must be news to, say, Norway.
    Changing of the job market: well I already addressed that one in my previous post, but to add to that I think people tend to get romantic about the quality of the jobs those peoples had in the eighties. A coal miner worked long hours, did physically exhausting work, and ran a high risk of lung disease.

  14. Sam:

    Many thanks for that link that sets out the details of the Scottish Government`s call-in policy.

    My worries have eased somewhat, but I can`t understand why the possibility of an extension of the time between notification of a planning decision and a SG decision isn`t more widely known.

    My contact in the Dornoch area, who runs the holiday cottage in which we often stay, is not aware of it. And is clearly concerned about his letting enterprise.

  15. Danny: I normally agree with you but your claim that “free trade leads to a richer country exploiting a poorer one” is just plain wrong. All the data shows that the advent of global trade has decreased inequality between the rich and poorest nations. (It’s increased inequality within individual countries, but that’s a different story.) The best thing we can do for the world’s poorest is to buy their stuff.

    And the kicker? The progressive reforms that countries go through as they develop – human rights, organised labour, even democracy itself – they tend to activate when a country reaches a certain level of wealth. So by not “exploiting” these countries, we are in fact leaving them to fester in not only abject poverty but social barbarism too.

  16. Davwel

    (just to be naughty!)

    Do you have views on the morality of owners of holiday lets exploiting the market for their individual profit – while denying local young people from even renting (much less owning) a home?

  17. As someone with fairly limited knowledge of English politics, there are obviously many aspects of the Corbyn/Labour/anti-Semitic stories that seem to matter to some, but totally pass me by.

    It has all the signs of an issue being used by participants in an internecine conflict.

    Clearly, the policies of the Israeli state towards the Palestinians (and vice versa) are valid concerns. Precisely the same is true of the policies of the Spanish state towards the Catalans (and vice versa).

    What remains wholly unclear is why the behaviour of one foreign state towards a portion of its population, causes an (apparent) ideological divide when the behaviour of another foreign state causes no consequence.

  18. Let us put cynicism to one side. Now is not the time for them. It is shameful – no question about it – that Brexit supporters are now saying in opinion polls they would put a hard Brexit over and above peace in Northern Ireland.

  19. @Oldnat

    I was in the Labour Party from 1992 – 2003, then 2010 to 2012.

    I never encountered anything that looked like antisemitism. Criticism of the Israeli Government, sure, but nothing to do with the Jewish nature of Israel. I guess there must be a minority of idiots on this, but I’m sure they not representative.

    I see Labour tearing itself apart over this, and I just don’t understand why this essentially stupid this behaviour is going on..

    Where do English voters go if the thought of a Govt led by either TM of JC looks distinctly unpalatable?

  20. ON @ 9.44 pm

    If owners of holiday lets are seriously impeding young locals having homes, then I am definitely against. And at one time we contributed to a local charity in the Lake District that both purchased houses to rent to young locals and campaigned for restrictions on second homes and for more building of starter homes.

    But profit is not wrong, and running holiday lets does provide some local part-time work on change-over Fridays and Saturdays. Also in much of the UK`s attractive countryside there are properties empty or kept as second homes because their owners cannot sell at a reasonable price meantime.

    There`s certainly empty homes here in attractive Deeside, besides a quite healthy letting market. Some of these holiday lets have been created recently from run-down old properties, both by small-scale private owners and larger estates.

    I approve in general, but recognise we have quite a few rogues owning estates, doing a range of bad things like allowing predator birds to be killed and impeding access, with boulders blocking laybys.

  21. CATMANJEFF

    I think what Labour should be concerned about is that it seems that very many of their Jewish MPs and members do seem to be concerned.

    These Jewish people who are complaining do not seem to the type who defend Israel’s appalling behaviour towards Palestinian people, on the whole they seem pretty mainstream.

    If may be that there is little to the claims of antisemitism, but it is still troubling if so many Jewish people seem uncomfortable.

  22. Prof Howard

    We don’t have any details yet from Datapoll, but I’d be surprised if a majority of those Leavers from Scotland who were polled (many of whom are likely to have strong Unionist connections with NI) were prepared to sacrifice peace in the Province [1]

    It seems more likely that (from both the population distribution in GB and the strength of the Leave vote in England c/f Scotland) that this simply reflects the views of English Leavers who have little or no concern for those in NI.

    As we both know, “Britishness” and “Unionism” can have very different meanings in England compared to NI or Scotland.

    “British Unionists” in either country would be very foolish to imagine that the Little Englander faction (which is very large among English Brexiteers) gives a damn about them.

    [1] Though those with UDA/UVF connections might be happy to resume violence.

  23. @ProfHoward

    Of course, perception is everything, especially in politics.

    The problem for is Labour perceptions become hard to shift.

  24. Davwel

    Which category does your Dornoch friend come into?

    Of course, self-catering encourages tourism (and much wider employment than weekend changeovers) but, presumably, you support the Scottish Government ending the “right to buy” scheme and the additional support for increasing the range of affordable housing?

    Westminster’s “one policy fits all” was always a rubbish idea, but as the Tories roll back devolution (with no Labour opposition) I think we will see more of their nonsense imposed on us.

  25. Prof Howard

    “Israel’s appalling behaviour towards Palestinian people”

    Doesn’t that comment make you “anti-Semitic” according to the rubric that abhors any criticism of the state of Israel?

  26. Read this the Guardian about prison life in the USA:

    “The US has 5% of the world’s population, but 25% of world’s prisoners, with more than 2 million in confinement. Black people in America are almost six times as likely to be imprisoned per capita than white people. In 2016, according to the Pew Research Center, black people represented 12% of the US adult population but 33% of the prison population. White people, by contrast, accounted for 64% of adults but 30% of prisoners.”

  27. Davwell,

    Sadly elements of the hard left are anti-Semitic, I have witnessed it myself in my younger days amongst SWP members and others and within elements of Labour Students.

    Whilst I have no concern in general with the new members and in fact believe that while they are in the main more ideological than practical the party had become stale after the Blair/Brown years and Milliband had no chance to change things whether capable or not so I welcome the challenge and hopefully sustainable reinvigoration.

    Unfortunately, though, a minority of the new members have come from the hard left tradition that has been a home for left wing anti-semites for decades.

    I should add that many hard left people are not anti-Semitic but sadly too many are and the leader quite simply has not shown sufficient leadership on the matter. This has got to the point where comrades I respect are taking the Hodge line that Corbyn himself is anti-semitic himself. I can’t reach that conclusion myself but do wonder when him not being part of the solution becomes part of the problem.

  28. Rosie and Daisie

    It’s not just the racial bias in the number of prisoners that is of concern, but how they end up in jail in the first place.

    1. Many prisons are privately owned, and earn money by filling contracts for public works and/or manufacturing. Work that their inmates do.

    2. A number of these prisons were built as speculative ventures, and when their inmate level is insufficient, it needs to be enhanced.

    3. It is not unknown for prisons to have a “helpful” arrangement with the local Police Department, who seem willing to arrest groups of young men (usually black or Hispanic) on rather spurious grounds, and the “helpful” courts then jail them.

    4. The contracts entered into by the prisons can then be honoured.

  29. ON – I know of few people who would say Prof Howards remark is anti-Semitic and I suggest such views are the norm within the mainstream of the Labour Party

  30. Jim Jam

    What definition of “anti-Semitic” are you using?

    Indeed, what do you mean by “hard left”? If you mean those adopting the “Trotskyite” label (and I’ve known a few) then your experience is different from mine. They tend to be strong supporters of Palestine (but then most folk in the SNP are too – just as we tend to support Catalunya, the Kurds, and other stateless nations).

    I’m sure that there are some on the “hard left” who are conspiracists adhering to the “international Jewish conspiracy” idea, just as there are those on the “hard right” doing the same.

    That the whole affair in Scotland seems to be simply a mechanism for settling scores (and SLab damaging itself – which causes me no concern) has been shown by a recent spat against Leonard and the suspension of a councillor for expressing concerns about Mossad interference.

    That the councillor was one of only a few SLab folk elected on a platform of Scottish independence is likely to have been a much more important issue!

    Still, if ELab wants to carry on guaranteeing that the Tories win elections in England, it simply enhances the argument for removing Westminster from any control over Scotland – so do carry on! :-)

  31. Jim Jam

    Of course, Prof Howard isn’t being anti-Semitic.

    He, I and (I hope) you would all publicly express our abhorrence at the racist behaviours adopted by the current Israeli Government.

    But if our mutual views are “mainstream in the Labour Party” why has Mary Lockhart been suspended?

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16389476.upset-scots-labour-councillor-mary-lockhart-suspended-in-anti-semitism-row-warns-supporters-to-watch-what-they-say/

  32. Wow! It’s really kicked off tonight! I’ll do my usual trawl and reply to a few bits that catch my eye. I’ve been busy tonight with taking my grandsons to their first visit to a chess club. They loved it.
    ———————————————————
    SteamDrivenAndy (6:55am)
    “..every Leaver has their own idea as to what they mean. Presumably including yourself.”

    Perhaps, but three things seem to be pretty common, and expected. These are the ability to control our borders (even if our governments are weak on this), the ability to make our own laws (i.e. No ECJ), and the ability to make our own trade deals (Japan seem very keen for instance).
    —————————————————
    Francis Irving (7:54am)
    I’m sorry, I always try to be polite, but your post is utter drivel. You seem to be saying that because my daughter and her husband each had a house when they married (and my daughter bought hers at age 19 by the way), that they are somehow slaveowners because they kept both houses and rented the one they din’t live in? Perhaps if McDonnell becomes Chancellor he’ll confiscate all second properties? Would that be a better solution?
    “Imagine being 20 years old now, without family money, but with a good professional job (in London, because that’s where they are).”
    Rubbish. There are thousands if not millions of ‘good professional jobs’ outside London. They may pay a bit less, but the cost of living is lower.
    ————————————————-
    Danny (8:01am)
    “…in general anyone renting a home is paying off the 90% mortgage which the freeholder took to buy it. its a business where people who can get mortgages take advantage of people who cannot get mortgages and end up owning the freehold. Making money from poor people because they are poor and therefore deprived of options.”

    So in the case of my daughter and her husband, who each had their own home before they married, what should they have done? They could have sold one of the houses, but how would they know whether the purchaser would rent the prperty out or not? What are you suggesting? Should private renting be outlawed? If so, would the property be ‘requisitioned’? if not, how could the councils afford to buy them all? It’s all very well having a moan, but you need to suggest alternative models.
    ——————————————–
    PTRP
    “Do we all stock up on 2-3 weeks supply of food Do we have to prepare for a lack of petrol and the like. ”

    Obviously. Why do you need someone to tell you that? I’ve already done all that. It probably won’t be necessary, but it sensible to be prepared. We’ve always got at least 2-3 weeks’ supply of food on hand anyway, and it isn’t all frozen in case of power cuts.
    There may be a few minor hiccups, but the worst I’ve heard so far is that there may be a temporary shortage of lettuce and tomatoes. Does anyone seriously think that supermarkets aren’t already looking at alternative supply chains?
    ———————————————–
    WB61
    “I do wonder however if the imposition of rationing in peacetime will be accepted in the modern age: my only experience of rationing was the petrol ration books introduced by the Heath Government during the oil crisis, I was only 11 but as I recall people were outraged.”
    I thought it was brilliant! I had a Honda 50 motor bike (150mpg) and was issued a ration book for a 2 litre car! I’d have been quids in if it had ever come to pass.
    ——————————————-
    ON (9:04)
    “I’m quite surprised that 4/10 Leavers (mainly in England, obviously) were prepared to put peace in Ireland as a priority.
    There’s hope for humanity yet!”

    Or perhaps we got fed up of being blown up (I narrowly misssed the Birmingham pub bombings).
    ————————————-
    Danny (8:39pm)
    “We have transitioned from a stronger nation to a weaker one.”

    We may not be what we were in the 19th century, but still 5th biggest economy in the world.
    —————————————-
    ProfHoward (11:02)
    “It is shameful – no question about it – that Brexit supporters are now saying in opinion polls they would put a hard Brexit over and above peace in Northern Ireland.”
    In your opinion. If Ireland ever arises in my conversations in England (which is rarely) most people don’t care. You might not like that, but there it is. So long as the IRA or an offshoot don’t start again.
    ———————————————–
    CMJ
    “Where do English voters go if the thought of a Govt led by either TM of JC looks distinctly unpalatable?”
    UKIP!
    ————————————–
    Rosie and Daisie
    ““The US has 5% of the world’s population, but 25% of world’s prisoners, with more than 2 million in confinement. Black people in America are almost six times as likely to be imprisoned per capita than white people. In 2016, according to the Pew Research Center, black people represented 12% of the US adult population but 33% of the prison population. White people, by contrast, accounted for 64% of adults but 30% of prisoners.””
    One possible explanation is that black people commit more crimes per % of population. Or does that make me a racist?
    ————————————————–
    JomJam
    “I should add that many hard left people are not anti-Semitic but sadly too many are and the leader quite simply has not shown sufficient leadership on the matter.”
    Quite agree My view on this is that Corbyn’s support for Hamas etc makes it difficult for him to condemn anti-semitism, particularly if it’s wrapped up in criticism of the state of Israel.
    ———————————————-

  33. polltroll,
    “Danny: I normally agree with you but your claim that “free trade leads to a richer country exploiting a poorer one” is just plain wrong. All the data shows that the advent of global trade has decreased inequality between the rich and poorest nations.”

    living standards have risen all over the world. Is this provably due to free trade, or simply the movement of education and knowledge into new locations, where it can be used by the locals to develop their own living standards? Is importing washing machines what matters, or importing machine tools and building roads, electricity supplys, water, schools, etc.

    The size of the UK economy is much greater than its international trade, so most of our real wealth we create for ourselves. Is this a universal truth for all countries? There are a lot of people on here arguing that if trade with the EU diminishes, manufacturing inside the Uk will increase to compensate. They seem to believe international trade stifles home production.

  34. JIM JAM

    For me-your @11.52 pm is a watershed moment.

    From the second Sky News recording the most surprising impressions to me are :-

    * The uncertainty & indecision.-I didn’t expect that. I thought his defining characteristic was strongly held principles.

    * In turning to this awful character for advice on this hugely sensitive subject, confirmation that he operates in a small coterie of lifetime associates & is not a Team Player.

    re your last sentence-I never thought to see you write that.
    But aren’t you riding The Tiger now Jim Jam ?. The one which all criticism of has been rejected.
    The Members are in charge-you cannot get rid of him.

  35. oldnat,
    “What remains wholly unclear is why the behaviour of one foreign state towards a portion of its population, causes an (apparent) ideological divide when the behaviour of another foreign state causes no consequence.”

    Its simple enough. The leader of the opposition has expressed views over the years which associate him with the particular case of Israel. In the absence of anything better, this can be used as a weapon against him.

    Better yet, if supporters of either main party are likely to be upset by any of this, polling suggests it will be labour voters.

    I am reminded of the 2010 and 2015 elections where labour failed to defend its economic record in office, in effect conceding it had done badly, whereas objectively I dont see how it had. Their fault was not that they did badly, but failed to defend their record and accepted their opponents narrative.

    The tories wish to create a similar situation here, where labour hasnt done anything most people are bothered about, but if it itself agrees that it has, then it will lose support.

    Similarly, I am unclear to what extent tory voters support Brexit because their party tells them it is the right thing to do, and would oppose Brexit if the leadership publicly did too.

  36. LBC’s James O’Brien had a WTO expert on his show. Sobering listening.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DIz9UTmMQk

  37. ProfHoward,
    ” It is shameful – no question about it – that Brexit supporters are now saying in opinion polls they would put a hard Brexit over and above peace in Northern Ireland.”

    But you did post that 40% would not, which right there destroys any majority for Brexit and transforms the referendum result into 70% remain, 30% leave.

    Pete B,
    “Perhaps, but three things seem to be pretty common, and expected. These are the ability to control our borders (even if our governments are weak on this), the ability to make our own laws (i.e. No ECJ), and the ability to make our own trade deals (Japan seem very keen for instance).”

    And there perhaps you exemplify the divide. Remainers arent bothered about immigration, accept the need for an international arbitration system between the EU treaty members (the ECJ), and think having a big block negotiate for us is likely to be a net benefit.

    Remainers might further argue the EU is not responsible for current immigration levels, rather it is UK policy. Further they see no alternative in new trading arrangements to something comparable to the ECJ and anticipate trade terms will worsen.

    You were summarising the main concerns of leavers which unite them. It may be they are not united on all three, and this is why no leave policy can be formulated. But it may also be they are united on other issues you do not mention, such as the Uk being better off with Brexit, and it is the requirement to achieve this as part of Brexit which is preventing a policy being formulated.

    “So in the case of my daughter and her husband, who each had their own home before they married, what should they have done?”

    As I said before, at a personal level they should make all the money they can. But at a moral level, and maybe considering their longer term futures in a stable harmonious country, they should campaign to defuse the property shortage in some way. This is not something one couple can do by individual action, the state has to act.

    From your description they are precisely in the position of having managed to get properties when they were more affordable. That they did not intentionally set out to be landlords does not change the position of their tenants, who most likely are renting because they cannot themselves afford to buy. Should we have more sympathy for, and feel a legislative need to help, them or their tenants?

    From time to time I and others have suggested alternative models, even on here. Build more homes. State housing at cost. Increased taxation on buy to let. Reform of the council tax to have more higher bands (ie go back to the rates). Policy to redistribute industry from London and SE to other areas. Land taxes where developers sit on land earmarked for housing.

    ” We’ve always got at least 2-3 weeks’ supply of food on hand anyway,”

    Why does anyone think difficulties would be over in 2-3 weeks? More likely, ramping up.

    Davwell,
    ” running holiday lets does provide some local part-time work on change-over Fridays and Saturdays”

    On the other hand, if local property prices fell because holiday lets were banned, locals might have more money in their pockets despite the foregone income.

  38. According to the Times front page,it looks as though even Holocaust survivors who lost their parents at Auschwitz are “anti semitic” if they criticise Israel in way that some pro-Israelis find offensive.

  39. @PETE B
    Obviously. Why do you need someone to tell you that? I’ve already done all that. It probably won’t be necessary, but it sensible to be prepared. We’ve always got at least 2-3 weeks’ supply of food on hand anyway, and it isn’t all frozen in case of power cuts.

    The reason rhetorical question: As some one said what about people on benefits, using food banks and the like they have no ability to make that kind of decision, I remember when I was unemployed without saving I would not have had the ability to go to a costco and buy thing like a large bags of rice pasta tinned product etc. What instruction are these people getting? (Sorry another rhetorical question)

    My point being the telegraph has a count down to Brexit day it says 240 odd or so and we seem to be in stasis. In truth we also have a good stock of foods because of the fact I contract and if things dry up we have less income if the I loose access to the EU I have less income so already we have been stopping lots of spending and are saving and overpaying the mortgage because I am not confident in the government to even have a set of emergency measures in place.

    What I do find amusing is that it appears like Hunt is telling the French and the Germans we will shoot ourselves in the head if you don’t help us. You need to overrule Barnier, where do they think Barnier gets his instruction from? Or is the public that completely unaware how the EU works?

  40. @PETE

    One possible explanation is that black people commit more crimes per % of population. Or does that make me a racist?

    In jacksonville black people are 20 times more likely to be ticketed for Jaywalk than white, In one country in Texas where they started to require noting ethnicity of person stopped it was noted that hispanics suddenly became white when being stopped such was the disproportionate cases of being stopped.
    Indeed both the case had trending driving while black and walking while black.

    I can tell you my experiences in Plymouth when I worked there. I would routinely get stopped. I drove a silver mondeo it wasn’t until I started refereeing Police games that I asked why was I being stopped. One office laughed and said I think they might thing you are a drug dealer there is not a lot of black people around here and you are driving a big car and alone. Funnily enough I rarely got stopped after that

    So partly you are correct black especially poorer black do more crime but they are also systematically targeted and placed in the criminal justice system and are more likely to serve longer sentences for the same crimes, These are common statistics at least in the UK and the US.

  41. Two things on property.

    Holiday lets boost the local economy much more than by merely providing some employment in changeover days. People in holiday tend to spend much more money locally than residents would, this boosting and in many cases keeping alive, many local businesses. Without suitable holiday accommodation many tourist areas would die.

    The argument between owning and renting property is spurious. Most successful economies have a high proportion of renters. Without rental properties mobility is extremely difficult. The problem is the price/availability and the location relative to employment centres. This is a worldwide issue associated with all major cities.

    I rent out a modern 3 bed bungalow for £500 per month to a long term tenant. I could get a little more on the open market but it is pretty near to the going rate in the area. I don’t consider this to be extortionate and the tenant has no encumberences should they wish to move.

  42. @passtherockplease

    “What I do find amusing is that it appears like Hunt is telling the French and the Germans we will shoot ourselves in the head if you don’t help us.”

    Blazing Saddles! But not as funny

  43. Hawthorn,

    I am reminded of the comments about who voted for Brexit.

    I think even most leave supporters would acknowledge that an element of leave voters are racist and little Englanders but to dismiss leave as a respectable position because of this would be wrong. (The NF supported the miners much to their embarrassment I recall).

    Similarly, I have little doubt that some of those attacking Labour over anti-semitism within the party are opportunistic and in some cases using as a vehicle to attack Labour and to attempt undermine the leader and/or the parties stance on Palestine/Israel and its’ criticism of some of the actions of the Israeli Government.
    Indeed this element of bandwagon opportunism imo lead to many mainstream members not taking legitimate concerns serious early enough.
    The irony is that at party meetings I have been at the discussions have contained a strong element of members agreeing pretty uniformly that criticism of Israeli Government actions should not be affected by our acknowledging we have a problem with some anti-Semitism within the party. As such the awareness of matters ‘Israel’ and recent decisions, such as limiting the right to self-determination, has increased.
    So while in the short term legitimate criticism of some of the actions of the Israeli Government may be affected in the medium term general awareness will have increased having the opposite effect.

  44. Personally I can’t see much wrong with omitting the ‘anti-Israel’ examples from the international definition of anti-Semitism. Israel is not and should not be immune from criticism.

    The reasons the criticism has purchase are that a) as per Jim Jam some of those around Corbyn probably are anti-Semitic b) the Tories and right-wing press are pushing this hard as a distraction from their own problems and c) some labour people are pushing it as a way of attacking Corbyn.

    In fairness to Corbyn he has said clearly that anti-Semitism is unacceptable. What else should he do?

  45. Danny: “Living standards have risen all over the world. Is this provably due to free trade, or simply the movement of education and knowledge into new locations.”

    A distinction without a difference. Where do you think most of the education and knowledge comes from? Chinese people didn’t know how to make iPhones before Apple set up factories there.

  46. Reading the various posts I am coming to think that:
    ;
    a) the only logical positions are no deal or remain (anything else leaves us rule takers and worse off than we are now)
    b) most people don’t want no deal
    c) the obvious way out of this dilemma is a referendum
    d) for different reasons neither labour nor the conservatives want a referendum

    In this situation we need the ‘least worst’ and most acceptable deal we can get. The only intermediate options the EU might offer are ‘Canada’ or ‘Norway’. According to Jones in Bangor the most popular of these two is Norway.

    In these circumstances, the only thing the powerless likes of us can do is a) tell our MPs that a lemming like leap over a cliff is absolutely unacceptable b) alert them to the evidence for the acceptability of the Norway option and c) say that our personal preference would be for a two stage referendum to sort out Norway v Remain v No deal.

    C is probably not on offer but as others have pointed out it would get the political parties out of a whole,

  47. PTRP: Or is the public that completely unaware how the EU works?

    Sadly, yes. And that’s a big part of the reason why we find ourselves where we are.

    I recall a pan-European survey a few years ago which tested knowledge of the EU in each country with a set of basic questions. (I don’t remember examples, but they were on the level of: is your country a member of the European Community?)

    What emerged was a perfect correlation between lack of knowledge about the EU and hostility to the EU. No prizes for guessing which member had the lowest level of knowledge and highest level of hostility.

    We can speculate about the reasons for this. My own view is that the very low coverage of EU processes and developments in this country, and our influential role in them, has left people with the impression that we are hapless victims of arbitrary decision-making somewhere a long way off.

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