YouGov’s regular poll for the Times this week shows another Labour lead, with topline figures of CON 36%(-1), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 7%(+1). Fieldwork was on Monday and Tuesday, and changes are from the middle of last week. We’ve now had four polls with fieldwork after the Davis/Johnson resignations – two from YouGov, one each from Opinium and Deltapoll – and all four have shown the Conservatives falling back behind Labour.

YouGov also found 40% in favour of a referendum on whether or not to accept the final deal, 42% of people were opposed – the highest level of support for a second referendum that YouGov have found so far with this tracker.

There was less support for Justine Greening’s idea of a “three-way” referendum between remain, Theresa May’s deal or no deal: only 36% thought that should happen, 47% were opposed. In the event it did go ahead, people said they would vote to stay – on first preferences support stands at Remain 50%, Leave with the deal 17%, Leave without the deal 33%. Once leaving with the deal has been eliminated and second preferences reallocated, the final figures would be 55% remain, 45% leave with no deal.


1,549 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 36, LAB 41, LDEM 9, UKIP 7”

1 2 3 31
  1. Another labour lead…. I guess it must be time for more anti-semitism stories to appear in the press.

  2. ALLAN CHRISTIE
    Good evening all from Clarkston East Renfrewshire.

    Had a lovely day in Largs today on the North Ayrshire coast. Much more upmarket than scruffy old Blackpool.

    Back to polling….Labour 5 points above the Tories! This is tragic stuff for May.

    Strong and stable…kiss my arse.

  3. Tony BTG

    “I guess it must be time for more anti-semitism stories to appear in the press.”

    Are you prescient, or had you already seen this?

    https://t.co/CjjrPAPiKn

    “Jeremy Corbyn was told to his face ‘you’re a [email protected] anti-semite and a racist’ by a Jewish Labour MP tonight.”

  4. Hopefully there will be Scottish and NI polls soon, to see how the electorates in the two Remainer countries have responded (if at all) to the farce that is UK politics.

  5. TONYBTG

    Another labour lead…. I guess it must be time for more anti-semitism stories to appear in the press.

    Fear not – the Labour ‘moderates’ are already ahead of you.

  6. Government Chief Whip says he’s “v sorry” to Jo Swinson. It was an “error”.

    Personally, I think Julian Smith is an utter incompetent, a lying git, or both.

  7. TONYBTG
    Another labour lead…. I guess it must be time for more anti-semitism stories to appear in the press
    ___________

    Or more stories on how ol Corby was a secret agent for Czechoslovakia.

  8. Fascinating poll.

    ON there was a full Scottish poll only the other day.

  9. Yep we can expect Corbyn to be trashed again by our pitiful press. Meanwhile the BBC continue with their dereliction of duty interviewing various Tory MP’s tonight with not a single Labour MP in sight.

    When a Govt is in chaos to not even bothering getting an opposition response is unacceptable. The next Labour Govt needs to deal with them.

  10. Alan Christie,

    “Had a lovely day in Largs today on the North Ayrshire coast.”

    Did you go to Nardini’s?

    Peter.

  11. So according to this YouGov poll Remain now have a whopping 10% lead. This is likely to continue to increase so that by the time we exit the EU next March there will be a considerable majority against it.

  12. Mike Pearse,

    “When a Govt is in chaos to not even bothering getting an opposition response is unacceptable. The next Labour Govt needs to deal with them.”

    Yeah, they’ll make sure the opposition hardly gets a look in, just like Blair did!

    Peter.

  13. Mike Pearce

    Don’t mess with the “will of the people”!

  14. Prof Howard

    “there was a full Scottish poll only the other day.”

    Yep. I knew that – I even corrected your error about it!

    The tables for it have finally been released

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Final-Tables-1.pdf

    But if “a week is a long time in politics”, then the last couple of days may have been a century!

  15. @Mike Pearce: “So according to this YouGov poll Remain now have a whopping 10% lead. This is likely to continue to increase so that by the time we exit the EU next March there will be a considerable majority against it.”

    Logically, you should be right.

    If you ask a three way question and redistribute the votes from the “middle ground”, you should gain the same result as if you asked just the two extremes.

    But I wonder if polling actually works that way?

    Although (despite my own preference) I have always expected that the abject incompetence of Theresa May would at some point lead to a collapse of the Leave vote.

  16. @ALEC

    “@Carfrew and @Alberto – Savory is a complete charlatan. The video TED talk is complete nonsense, and says a lot more about the self promotional value of TED talks than it does about reversing desertification.

    I’m continually amazed that there are so many shockingly gullible people out there prepared to believe in utter rubbish, when 30 seconds of internet searching and a wee bit of common sense would demonstrate the idiocy of what is being claimed.”

    ——

    Well sure, one can surf the net looking for evidence but I thought I’d ask the conservationists here first. Which sadly seems to gift an opportunity to suggest “gullibility” when actually I was according some respect.

    But ok, Alec, you claim 30 seconds googling can dismiss it, but actually what it does is find some stuff for and against.

    E.g., here’s a rebuttal of the Monbiot article Colin cited earlier.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2014/aug/19/grazing-livestock-climate-change-george-monbiot-allan-savory

    So can you actually look at all the evidence and put a proper case as to why this technique must be wrong, or is it just a case that if some people write against it that’s good enough for you? Savory may not be the ideal proponent, but that’s different from saying the technique must inevitably be wrong.

  17. “Back to polling….Labour 5 points above the Tories! This is tragic stuff for May”

    ——–

    well Cameron was many more points behind Miliband at one point.

  18. Fpt PROFHOWARD
    “Andrew – Jo Swinson talks a lot of sense.”

    The main problem libdems are going to have for a long time to come is that many of them do speak a lot of sense, but despite that are libdems. If she’s waiting for Vince to detoxify the brand before stepping up to lead the party she’s going to have a long wait. At this rate they’re gaining about half a percent a year in the polls aren’t they?

    The Today programme rolled out the anti-Semitism roadshow for its regular airing this morning, for the life of me I couldn’t follow the rabbi’s train of thought, even though I understood the argument from the interviewer’s preamble. She seemed mainly hung up on there being insufficient consultation. As a resident of Northamptonshire, currently undergoing meaningful consultation on the done deal for its unitary authorities, conveniently splitting the only two areas likely to vote anything but Tory and combining each with a constituency where Leadsom and Bone are considered worthy candidates for office and another solid Tory constituency apiece, I allowed myself a wry chuckle.

    Unless Yougov have changed their methodology that’s a heck of a move from being the most Tory leaning of polls two weeks ago to parity with the rest, makes me wonder if the good ship Moggipop is still going down despite its obvious strength and stability. If they are still two or three percent more Tory than the others then there are likely to be some interesting headlines between now and whenever they decide the country is in good enough shape that they might go on holiday and reflect on a job well done.

  19. Prof Howard

    Table 4 in the Survation poll looks quite interesting for the regional breakdown of the Westminster VI (despite its small numbers per region)

    NE Westminster VI –

    SNP 54% : SLab 22% : SCon 21% : SLD 2%. If that is even remotely close to opinion shifts there, the Tory losses might be even worse than predicted.

  20. @Alec

    Thanks for reminding me I have better things to do with my life than post on internet discussion forums.

  21. Re the Medicine defeat

    Faisal Islam pointing out that Govt now mandated in law to take all necessary steps to remain part of European medicines regulatory system -a system only open to EEA and EU members, for which the European Commission makes binding decisions…its Single Market for pharma

    Cherry picking isn’t allowed by EU, but UK now required by law to remain part of that regulatory system. Unless the EU makes a highly unlikely shift, then surely the UK Government is now mandated by UK Law to (at least) be an EEA member?

  22. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)
    Alan Christie,

    Did you go to Nardini’s?

    Peter
    ________________

    You can’t go to Largs without visiting Nardini’s. I was surprised the place was open because the last time I was in Largs it was shut down. Also went for a lovely walk out to the Pencil and visited Kelburn estate.

    The place was buzzing.. Glasgow fair with weegies going doon the watter.

  23. TED,

    YG don’t reallocate DK at all even a %age so when supporters have doubts (Labour 2-4 months ago and now Tories) this often ephemeral loss of support is recorded as per responses. Some other pollsters compensate for this move t DK/WV as the reckon a %age return at some point before any GE vote.

  24. Oldnat

    These amendments I presume are pretty meaningless and will be reversed (if needed) by a subsequent law when the final agreements are made.

    A lot of these details I think are not needed until the deal in the transition period. More or less the deal in October only needs to be about the backstop.

  25. Oldnat

    The survation poll in Scotland looks like it would give Willie Rennie a spring in his step – with a +2 compared to January in the Scottish Parliament VI.

  26. FWIW,

    My view is that this is still phoney war stuff and even binding legislation for HMG to ensure this or ensure that can be superseded by the final legislation after the conclusion of negotiations with the EU.

    This vote should it occur (there is always the chance no/min deal of course) is the one that matters.

    HOC rejection could then lead to a new round of negotiations, if EU agreed and there were only a few areas of manageable disconnect; or a second ref or GE if the reasons for defeat were insurmountable.

  27. Prof – crossed posts, smiley thing.

  28. Joseph1832,
    “Although (despite my own preference) I have always expected that the abject incompetence of Theresa May would at some point lead to a collapse of the Leave vote.”

    Or careful planning?

    But the rationale for the tories to attempt to turn around public opinion has always been that brexit is unworkable and in the long run disastrous for them.

    I have posted it before. That making a choice of one particular form of Brexit guarantees offending some leave voters. May appears to be going for a soft brexit. I say appears, because the whole thing is so devious it is hard to tell who wants what. However, had she done the exact opposite and gone for hard brexit the result would have been the same.

    She did go for hard Brexit, at the election. The result was about a draw, or in fact a lower percentage of support for Brexit parties than at the referendum. And this version of hard brexit still had ladlings of fudge, because she held out the promise of special deals. When all that is stripped away and a choice is presented of hard, or soft, or any blend you fancy…but only one… then the leave coaltion breaks.

    And it was clear this must happen, because the leave campaign relied upon muddling up all possible brexits in order to achieve a majority. The process of reducing this to just one guaranteed loss of public support.

    And that is why the tories have to stop brexit.

  29. theexterminatingdalek

    “At this rate they’re gaining about half a percent a year in the polls aren’t they?”

    Exactly 2.5% in the last year in the Britain Elects poll tracker actually.. That would put the Lib Dems on a handy 19% in 2022, and over the past year it is quite a linear trend. Labour are down 3.8% over the same period, and I will let you extrapolate that…

  30. @OLDNAT
    “UK now required by law to remain part of that regulatory system.”

    Not quite. The UK government is now bound by law to make remaining part of that regulatory system a negotiating objective.

    How many times it has to ask and be rebuffed, and how reasonable it must be when it asks, and how high it must prioritise that objective before giving up, I don’t know. But clearly there’s more grey than black and white.

  31. Prof Howard

    “looks like it would give Willie Rennie a spring in his step – with a +2 compared to January in the Scottish Parliament VI.”

    +3 for constituencies (which may mainly damage the Tories, rather than helping the LDs, except in NE Fife) and +2 on the List. While the tables only give recalled voting for the 2017 UK GE, the shift in votes is pretty equal from SCon & SLab to SLD, with very few from SNP (which isn’t surprising).

    Further splitting within Unionism to SLD from the two larger unionist groups will also cheer SNP strategists.

  32. PeterW

    Good point. If the UK Parliament (in its state of utter inanity) wished to, it could make it a legal obligation for the UK to seek to control all non-terrestrial planets.

  33. @JIM JAM
    “My view is that this is still phoney war stuff and even binding legislation for HMG to ensure this or ensure that can be superseded by the final legislation after the conclusion of negotiations with the EU.”

    The Government has its final legislation. All the statutory powers it needs to give effect to completing the process of leaving the EU at the conclusion of negotiations with the EU are in the Withdrawal Act. No further statutory authority is needed.

    Nor even, after the Grieve/ Soubrey faction bottled the meaningful vote amendment, is parliamentary consent required in the exercise of that statutory authority. Read the Act.

    Further legislation may be desirable (notably the two bills going through the process in the last two days). But nothing further is necessary.

    That’s not to say there aren’t still political battles to fight. If the meaningless vote the Act ended up providing for goes against the government I wouldn’t fancy their political wisdom in ploughing on regardless. But the legislation for them to do so is in place. That key battle has gone.

  34. Andrew111,
    “Exactly 2.5% in the last year in the Britain Elects poll tracker actually.. That would put the Lib Dems on a handy 19% in 2022, and over the past year it is quite a linear trend. Labour are down 3.8% over the same period, and I will let you extrapolate that…”

    So what do you imagine moved people to support libs? perhaps labour not being very remainy? So that would be a 3.8% waiting for some remainery encouragement to come back to labour?

    peterw,
    It could be argued labour has sought to engineer a situation just precisely as now. That parliament could vote against a government plan, quite clearly expressing disapproval, but leaving the final power with the government. Which leaves the blame with the government for the consequences.

    Wheras what the government needed to achieve was parliament taking control and therefore relieving it of blame.

  35. I find it a little perverse that these polls show that fewer people want a second ref than would vote remain if there was one. How else can Brexit be halted?

  36. Danny,
    The trend is obviously a bit exaggerated by the post-election high for Labour, and low for the Lib Dems, but yes, Labour are slowly bleeding Remain voters to the Lib Dems and Greens, who are also on a slow upward trend.

    In 2017, fear of a Tory landslide sent those voters into the Labour camp. If a general election happened with Labour 5 points ahead, I would expect some shift from Lab to Lib Dem during the campaign, and some shift from UKIP back to Tory, with another indecisive result. There is a sense of betrayal on both sides of the Brexit debate at the moment.

    If Labour went full on Remain or pro People’s Vote, that would be bad for the Lib Dems but good for the Tories, probably…

  37. Paddy,
    A significant number of people seem to dislike voting more than anything else! Remember Brenda from Bristol.

    We hear a lot from the 25% of people on each side of the debate who care deeply about Brexit (especially on here!). The other 50% are just getting on with their lives, and see Brexit as a relatively minor thing..Being asked to choose is just annoying…

  38. Paddy,
    “I find it a little perverse that these polls show that fewer people want a second ref than would vote remain if there was one. How else can Brexit be halted?”

    No point having a second referendum unless you both want a remain vote and believe you would get one. Otherwise the government has to devise a way to remain. Best way for tories is for parliament to demand remain, which requires labour to demand remain and a few tory rebels to go with them. That is probably what would harm the tories least.

    The nuclear option would be for May to turn around and say she has tried for 2 years to find a workable brexit and failed, and she is now calling for remain. At least then the tories might get voter credit for having led on remain to offset some of the inevitable leave losses.

    To get the best out of such a choice, they have to first persuade as many people as possible to switch from leave to remain, and persuade them they really did try to make leave work, and persuade them there is no viable leave option. Pretty much what they have been doing?

    Very interesting to see if there are remain votes within the libs who could not vote labour but who would support a remain conservative party.

  39. Can the deep-state-BBC-Whitehall-complex-undermining-our-glorious-leader conspiracy theorists just pack it in, please?

    Apart from anything else, I thought you’d be pleased at these poll leads, but if anything, it just serves to make you angrier still, as though you were a bunch of Daily Mail readers. I’m beginning to think some of you will never be happy, even under a “proper” left-wing government. You just seem like unconditionally angry people, who would rather howl at the moon rather than ever celebrate or even acknowledge when anything gets better. (To quote Steven Pinker, “progressives hate progress”.)

    And, if you are going to moan, leave the defence of anti-Semitism out of it, please.

  40. Danny, the inconvenient truth for the Tories is that UKIP is on the rise, and I suspect will be stronger than ever. Particularly if the Tories ever dared to betray the referendum vote.

    Nonetheless, the pointless Parliamentary debates and faux votes do nothing to change the reality that there are 3 realistic options;
    1. Norway
    2. Canada
    3. Nothing – WTO

  41. @DANNY

    I am not sure that May could turn to remain. She has had several opportunities to scupper leaving and has done everything in her power not to. She threatened the remain section of her party with an election FFS. If she had lost the Customs Union vote then she would have had the excuse to say we need a second referendum to resolve what it is we want since parliament cannot decide she worked very hard to keep thing a float. This does not smack of someone whos hoping to remain in the EU it smacks of someone who just thrashing about to keep in power

    I actually feel she had tried to cut off routes to a second referendum. If I wanted to keep power and keep the economy going and was highest leave component of my vote, this is what the attempt to keep all three things in play would look like. It would seem indecisive because being decisive rules out one of those three

    1. She needs a deal to preserve the economy after all even with a deal there is the problem of there being no brexit dividend

    2. She has a leave component that is at present the highest of the main parties and so she can only lose them to UKIP or Labour. Her membership of her party and her 2017 intake has a string leave bias

    3. She has no where to turn, she can’t turn to Corbyn because he won’t help. She can’t turn to Lib Dems for obvious reasons they are just hanging on to power because that is all they can do at the moment

    May nuclear option has been to threaten a general election something that none of her party want since they’ll be arguing on europe throughout the campaign. Labour will be talking about austerity as they did last time.

    As others have said the EU is the iceberg that the Tory titanic broke on every time they have fallen apart. They are now not even seen as much more competent economically than Labour, You have a whild variance as what we need to do post Brexit you have TREVOR WARNE in a hold out form a Tory that I have never seen, you have Hannan and the deregulators and you have Hammond and the austerity pragmatists. The Tory coalition is falling apart and there is a battle for the heart and soul of the party bigger than that of Corbyn revolution. May I believe understand this but understanding it and being able to do something about it are two different things and at the moment she is siding with ERG because they are the biggest group

    Corbyn is just waiting for them to screw up. Every silence on Brexit is turning the screw, picking the scab. The point is in the end neither Corbyn and the Labour leadership are keen on tackling the Brexit issue because the electorate is still divided. Nothing happen until right to leave falls below 40 and the wrong to leave metric goes well above 60.

    If May says she tried and failed. there be enough people in the Tory party to have an leadership contest and then all bets are off because I think no one knows whether it would be about keeping power or purity.

    Labour plan has always been to out wait the Tories. The EU plan has been to out wait the Tories and prepare for the worst. They are watching this and they speak better english than we seak any of their languages they understand that May cannot deliver any deal hell she cannot kepp her own deal on track what do you think the EU can do. basically nothing.

    At this point the argument is about minimising the harm and that is why I think a no deal is in the offing we as a nation decided by a narrow majority to leave but leave means different thing to different people it alway has trying to say otherwise is just disingenuous on the part of leavers. There isn’t big enough coalition of Brleavers, Leavers, leavers with a little L and those that just want immigration stopped to form a coherent policy.

    As I said Dominic Cumming approach was to win the EU referendum not to win the policy debate on what brexit means hell he wanted to avoid any policy debate which is why in the end the only thing that all the leave campaigner have in common is their wish to leave the EU. however now everything has sign up to what that means and there isn’t a majority for any of the options

  42. Bit of a bizarre rant, polltroll. Who has defended anti-semitism?

    The conspiracy theories about May trying to thwart Brexit are absurd, simply because there is no way she is either that clever of that ideologically committed.

  43. Andrew111
    I was attempting to be slightly mischievous with the figures to make a point that they are going nowhere fast, but having now looked at the tracker again see that in 2015 they were on 7.5% and now according to this poll are on 9% so my point stands, even though my methodology is easily discredited. I’m sure you were being equally mischievous with your method of extrapolation, since by that method the Tories would achieve parity with the libdems some time around their conference, and much as I would not be unhappy with that it does seem disappointingly improbable.

  44. Jonesinbangor,
    “the inconvenient truth for the Tories is that UKIP is on the rise”

    Is it? What happened in 2017? Ukip vote collapsed during the campaign and ran to con.

    If there was a real election now then the tories would have to declare a policy. Depending on what this was, voters would decide if they liked it, or even if they hated it whether it was the best on offer.

    Polling support for UKIP is very theoretical. It isnt clear there would be an actual party or candidates to vote for.

    ” there are 3 realistic options;”

    There are three realistic LEAVE options. Plus Remain. (But WTO and Canada would come out the same eventually. It isnt clear they would start out different either) The conservative party arguably has sought to eliminate a soft brexit option, leaving only a choice between a hard brexit, which it has also sought to discredit, and remain.

    Did you notice how the tories have split into two working groups, one of which seeks to discredit soft brexit and one seeking to discredit hard brexit?

    Polltroll,
    ” I’m beginning to think some of you will never be happy, even under a “proper” left-wing government”

    It is very unclear to what extent current labour voters want a left wing government, or want remain, or both. Or even neither.

    The polling evidence allows a range of interpretations of labour support, from 50% serious remain, no serious leave and no real left inclination to 30% serious leave, 20% serious remain but a very heavy left lean. I dont see that the published results differentiate even what are considered the main drivers for choosing labour. There seems to be a correlation between remain and left leaning, but there are limited published breakdowns confirming it.

  45. Re posts above, the “bleeding” of Lab remain votes to LD is very, very slow but has increased a bit since April and is even slower to Green. At the slightly increased rate, if it continues, LD would only be on about 12-14% at the end of the year. The loss of Con “Moggy” votes to UKIP seems to me to be a one-off jump of about 4% after the deal (which is now changing) and resignations. It will be interesting to see if UKIP can build on it or if the votes drift back over the summer recess.

  46. Looks like John Mann voted with the other 4 on the Customs Union Bill.

    Forget momentum allegedly targeting MPS for deselection that was always scare-mongering imo, these 5 will face challenges in their constituencies. Hoey in particular is vulnerable as she has no representing voters defence with over 70% in Vauxhall voting remain.

    I think I would find it hard to campaign for her or any of the 5. I can accept MPs not supporting the whip on occasions and the shenanigans of some of the so-called RWMs has irritated me but given a chance to possibly bring down the Tories and maybe force a GE, Labour MPs must support the party.

    Next time John Man waxes portentously, as he likes to do on most things, about austerity he should be reminded that he voted in effect to extend it.

  47. Passthrockplease.

    The one thing tories cannot say is that they are seeking to remain. If you wanted to create a remain strategy for the tories, it has to accept that limitaton. The only way to attack brexit is to analyse it to death, and as I pointed out, divide into pro brexit factions which however criticise other pro brexit factions.

    “the iceberg that the Tory titanic broke on”

    ..is that voters produced a tiny win for a massively distruptive policy which is guaranteed to upset most people including their own voters if it is implemented. It isnt tory splits which are the problem but voter splits. There would be no party splits if the national view was clear.

  48. My view is that the most significant result of last night’s votes is the failure of Labour Party tactics. The support for A Customs Union was designed to bring about a defeat of the government (leading to a general election, they hoped) by splitting the Tory vote but keeping Labour MPs onside. The customs union was a convenient issue because a customs union does not require freedom of movement, which a significant number of Labour MPs are against.

    This tactic has now failed, leaving the party with no differentiation in brexit policy with which to force further splits. Thus a rethink in policy is necessary. Eventually it will be necessary to address the Single Market (in or out?).

  49. You may be right Hal but nothing public yet.

    I know Pete W says the WA act gives enough leeway for HMG to do what they want in effect but the negotiations with the EU will lead to a commons debate and, speaker dependent, meaningful votes.

    During this process or afterwards depending on the outcome would be the time to ‘develop’ policy further if necessary.

    Agree btw, SM much harder issue for Labour due to FOM.

    Tory soft Brexiteers beyond the 12 who supported the CU last night have some soul searching to do as well.

  50. @ANDREW111

    Paddy,
    A significant number of people seem to dislike voting more than anything else! Remember Brenda from Bristol.

    We hear a lot from the 25% of people on each side of the debate who care deeply about Brexit (especially on here!). The other 50% are just getting on with their lives, and see Brexit as a relatively minor thing..Being asked to choose is just annoying…

    I am inclined to disagree here: In bristol at least we have Airbus and a number of companies that have strong ties with european companies. I do agree people are finding this difficult for two reasons

    1. You have to admit you made a mistake
    2. By definition that make you stupid…….

    I spoke to someone who decide to change their mind over buying car. What got me was not that made the decision to change their mind but the fact until they discussed it with me they said they felt stupid having made such a big decision and then deciding against it. It was almost as if it was better to burden themselves with something that they did not want just to save face. She pointed out to me when I advised her not to go ahead no one else whom she spoke about it with said that what she was doing was wrong and not in her interest.

    I see the same effect occured over Iraq, in the end people moved on from Iraq and lived with the consequences of the failure some felt they were duped, but most just ran away from supporting it and some just could not remember supporting it

    Everyone has invested a lot in the choice of leave or remain. It is not a point of policy no it is a point of identification no one wants to revisit this because it will basically tear open peoples decision making processes. Why did I chose this? was I lied to? Am I stupid?

    teaching people to change their minds is a hard thing to do ask psychologists. Many of our decisions are more based on emotions than facts and being confronted by them is tough proposition.

    Look at the polls given a choice people would chose remain but actually they are saying they didn’t want to be given the choice. That sounds completely contradictory does it not. To change ones mind leaves one open to the idea you are not very smart you cannot make good decisions and no one believes they make bad ones.

    If you look at Iraq as template. The EU referendum and the aftermath makes perfect sense.

    We sold ourselves that the objective would be easy, straightforward that there was no downside and indeed that there was only upsides those that opposed were not only weak, unadventurous but also not part of the tribe. By the time everything went sideways all campaigning was forgotten, the debate? who cares it was a disaster, and we were lied to, our big get out clause.

    The problem was that the point where people flipped it was so obvious that it was a disaster that no one questioned your decision to oppose.

    The point I am making is that the die is cast. In the end Parliament wants the electorate to rescue them and the electorate want parliament to rescue them neither want’s to make the first move because of what if I am wrong, do I look stupid. it is better to not make a decision

    That is a paralysis we are in. I believe people reluctance mirrors my friend and their car dilemma, they desperately need someone to talk to but don’t want to appear stupid so they shut up and accept their fate.

    My friend said it was a salutatory lesson.

    As JONESINBANGOR has stated there was only ever three options

    1. WTO
    2. Canada
    3. Remain

    however we have seen on these forums people talking about canada++++++, swisss——–, and everything in between. I believe what has been scary is that Barnier laid out those options a year ago.

    We have been rather dishonest with ourselves which to me s the most annoying part of the whole thing. I think it is interesting to see how people have modified their viewpoint over the time I have been on this site.

    it is a pity there is no easy way to go back over people comments from say just Christmas.

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