Following the midweek YouGov poll, there are two more polls in today’s papers showing the Conservatives falling back behind Labour in the wake of the cabinet Brexit “deal” and the Davis/Johnson resignations.

Opinum in the Observer, conducted between Tuesday and Friday, has topline figures of CON 36%(-6), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 8%(+5). Changes are from June. There is also new Deltapoll figures in the Sun on Sunday, which have the Conservatives on 37%(-4) and Labour on 42%(+1) – changes are again on June.

This means we now have three polls conducted since the Davis/Johnson resignations, all of which have shown Conservative support dropping down behind Labour (and for Opinium and YouGov at least, showing UKIP up… I don’t have the Deltapoll figure for UKIP yet, but I expect we’ll see the same there).

Full details of the Opinium poll are up on their website here, and other questions paint a generally negative picture for the government. Just 25% of people now approve of May’s handling of Brexit (down 5 since last month), 56% disapprove (up 11). Her general approval figures have fallen to much the same extent, down to minus 24 from minus 8 last month.

Asked specifically about the Chequers deal, however, the public are evenly split. 32% of people approve of the Chequers plan, 32% do not, 35% are either neutral or don’t know. Support is higher among remain voters, opposition higher among leavers. For those intrigued by the difference between be neutral rating here and the negative rating in the YouGov question mid week, one obvious difference in the question is that YouGov asked people if they supported or opposed the deal based on whatever they had seen or heard about it, Opinium gave a short description of the deal in the question, focusing on Britain following EU rules on goods, avoiding a hard border, collecting EU tariffs and being about to set its own tariffs for non-EU countries. As with any policy, I expect many people’s reactions to the deal are based not upon looking at the details, but taking their cues from political and media reaction to it.


480 Responses to “Two more polls show the Conservatives dropping behind Labour”

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  1. Opinium current VI by 2017 vote (Lab/Con only as other numbers are too small to be meaningful)

    Con 2017 – Con 82% : Lab : 3% : UKIP 11% : LD 3% : Grn 0%
    Lab 2017 – Con 1% : Lab : 89% : UKIP 2% : LD 3% : Grn 3%

  2. Never heard of Deltapoll. Following links on other sites I found a similar poll in last week’s Sun on Sunday with Con and Lab both on 41 but no mention of other parties. which ties in with Anthony’s figures above. The Deltapoll site shows nothing.

  3. “Last week’s” above should be “last month’s”

  4. I find it odd that these polls suddenly surface showing almost identical Labour leads, whereas on Friday the Tories were in the lead. (ICM & Kantar) I have never heard of Deltapoll. Very, very convenient.

  5. Opinium has an interesting set of Scottish figures which highlights Anthony’s warning to ignore Subsamples.

    Labour 48%, Tory 28%, LibDem 13%, UKIP 4%, SNP 0%…..

    Peter.

  6. @AndrewMyers

    ICM and Kantar poll’s fieldwork was done before the resignations whereas deltapoll and opinium were done afterwards. Yougov’s fieldwork was done on wednesday and thursday this week and showed a Labour lead of 2%. The resignations were the sort of thing that could perhaps punch through to the general public so a swing from conservative to UKIP is not unreasonable. Of course you are correct to be a bit cynical about polling though.

  7. @Peter Cairns – in the headline table those are the Wales figures? Scotland has SNP on 37%?

  8. DeltaPoll has three directors – two of which are Joe Twyman and Martin Boon.

    Those are two very credible psephologists. Joe Twyman ex Yougov, Martin Boon ex ICM.

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/who-we-are

  9. It seems to me that a UKIP revival is now key to Labour’s electoral prospects and if these recent polls are picking up a genuine trend, and I still apply my Brexit caveats to current polls by the way, then this is the beginning of a very good story for Labour. In our deeply flawed FPTP electoral system, each of the two main parties depend on the splintering of the others core votes to get over the line in a General Election. The Lib Dems and the SDP provided this essential service to the Thatcher governments in the 80s and to a rather lesser extent, UKIP did the same thing on Labour’s behalf in the last decade or so, albeit UKIP became a two-headed ogre in 2010 and 2015, inflicting misery on both of the two main parties. I’m guessing the Tories had high hopes for the Greens at one stage. The basic point I’m making is that both Labour and Tories need proxy surrogates to chip away at each others voters, most of whom seem unwilling to make straight switches these days. It would appear that our old friends Mr and Mrs Swing Voter, voting Labour one election and Tory the next, are a dying breed. The Big Two have needed third party help for some time now. Proxy wars are part and parcel of FPTP elections. Not terribly noble, I agree, but tactically essential.

    Labour’s recent problem has been the Leave vote congealing largely around the Tories, solidifying them at 40% plus VI, with a lot of the UKIP vote returning “home”. You don’t have to be a psephologist of genius proportions to deduce that Labour can’t win if the Tories continue float about around the 40% mark. It just can’t be done, although Corbyn’s similar achievement in cornering 40% of the electoral market for Labour means that the Tories are gazing on similarly barren ground. Something has to budge if the stalemate is to be loosened.

    If a Farage-led UKIP rises from its catacomb and creeps back up to that 10% VI mark, and that surge is largely made up of Tory leavers, and Labour, at the same time, can hold on to their own UKIP returnees, then things look very good indeed for them.

    UKIP becomes Labour’s best friend again. As does Brexit ambiguity, although I still have a funny feeling that Corbyn’s best card, probably a trump one, is to become a Second Referendum/ Lukewarm Remain man, quite close to a GE too. He’s surveyed the wreckage and chaos and has a plan for how the country gets out of it. Over to you, Jezza me old mate.

    As a World Cup obsessive, I keep digging into these England songs: –

    “Looking back on when we first met; I cannot escape and I cannot forget; Jezza, you’re the one; you still turn me on; and Labour’s coming home again”

    Apologies to Atomic Kitten (and to Skinner, Baddiel and Lightening Seeds for yesterday’s effort!)

    :-) :-)

  10. @Frosty – also worth pointing out that these are just polls and not an actual GE. People can vent in a poll but when push comes to shove, they will I suspect be more reluctant to split the vote and let a third party in.

    I am surprised that the Labour vote is holding up so well, given that at least some of the 2017 VI was made up of remainers lending their vote to avoid a hard Brexit, which Chequers looks to avoid. Moreover, as the memories of the utterly dire Tory campaign begin to fade, I would have expected support to fade; perhaps not down to the original 24% but maybe 34/35%.

  11. The third DeltaPoll Director, Paul Flatters is connected with bespoke forecasting organisation, Trajectory.

    Looks a good background for polling.

  12. Andrew Myers

    “I am surprised that the Labour vote is holding up so well, given that at least some of the 2017 VI was made up of remainers lending their vote to avoid a hard Brexit, which Chequers looks to avoid. Moreover, as the memories of the utterly dire Tory campaign begin to fade, I would have expected support to fade.”

    What you are missing here is that there are a substantial number of voters who don’t actually care about Brexit. Shock horror, I know to us politicos, journalists, TV News etc. Go round knocking on people’s doors and what they are concerned about is the state of the NHS, the cuts in police funding, Grenfell Towers, the railways and so on and so on. That is the sort of thing the Labour Party concentrated on in the 2017 GE. It didn’t fall for the election being about Brexit and that’s why it did so well and why its vote is still holding up so well.

    That isn’t going to change whatever happens with Brexit.

  13. Deltapoll are also BPC members.

  14. Opinium – approval rating of party leaders by their own voters

    Party : Approve : Disapprove : Neither

    SNP : 91% : 0% : 23%
    Lab : 68% : 10% : 22%
    L-D : 62% : 4% : 34%
    Con : 58% : 24% : 18%
    UKIP : 42% : 9% : 49%

  15. @Norbold – I wonder if I formed a party and offered everyone a citizen’s income of £50,000 per year (oh wait, Tories have just matched that, so better make it £52,000) would my VI hold up so well?

  16. Has anyone seen the figures for the other parties in the Deltpoll? It would be interesting to see if it matches Opinium for UKIP.

  17. TM is trying to achieve an economically tolerable Brexit, and doing so is destroying the coalition that underpins the Tories, from the blue Liberal wets through to the Thatcherite extreme.

    If the EU humiliate her by throwing out her proposals, I can’t see where she’s got to go. But I don’t see where the Tories have to go either to be honest

    Labour very clear. Who knows what their Brexit position is?

  18. Should say Labour very clever, not clear

  19. Andrew Myers.

    Sigh.

  20. Conservative Party meltdown happening.

    Whips threatening MPs they will withdraw campaign financing (not in the whips control BTW).

    More activists refusing to canvas, others only willing to canvas for pro-Brexit MPs.

    Brandon Lewis and Gavin Barwell holding conference calls with area officers to find out how bad things really are.

    All being reported and posted on ConservativeHome.

    This could lead to more polls being organised over the next few weeks, going to be a busy period for the polling companies I think.

  21. It seems safe to say that there has been negative movement of Con VI, possibly of quite a large scale.

    The big questions now will be whether this is a sustained fall in support, or a temporary reaction to negative headlines, and if it does signal a more troubled period for the blues, whether the polls will have destabilizing effect on internal part politics.

    There does appear to be a feeling gaining ground that after to years of phoney war, we’ve reached what test cricketers term ‘moving day’ on Brexit. Things are starting to happen, and voters are starting to react.

    So far, the post referendum period seems to have turned out rather in line with T Blair’s analysis.

  22. @Oldnat

    Thanks for the Leaders approval figures.

    Here is the data from Opinium for the same question over the last three polls (April, June, July 2018)

    Theresa May Approval by Con voters:

    77, 72, 58

    Theresa May Disapproval by Con voters:

    10, 9, 24

    Jeremy Corbyn Approval by Lab voters:

    68, 66, 68

    Jeremy Corbyn Disapproval by Lab voters:

    12, 13, 10

    ————————————————————–

    “There May be trouble ahead…”

  23. If Theresa May is subject to a challenge, but stays leader/PM, could she really continue to negotiate Brexit with any real authority ?

    I would think that unless the EU and r27 EU countries were very helpful in agreeing to the White paper without any siginificant changes, that it would be impossible.

    It is possible that a majority across HoC and HoL could be persuaded to support the White paper, provided that concerns practicalities were answered. For example the collection of EU tariffs on goods in the UK but destined to be exported to the EU and how the new Visa system for EU workers would be operated.

    But would Jeremy Corbyn be willing to help Theresa May and move Labour closer to her position i.e. No requirement for a new Customs Union agreement ?

    Some Tories are keen for Labour to help deliver a soft Brexit and some Labour MP’s seem to want to help the process. But it is whether this will actually happen, as Labour would have to sell the Government position to Labour voters who voted for Brexit. That would be very difficult politically.

  24. Politics Home reporting that unless May abandons the Chequers agreement within a week, a confidence ballot will be triggered.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/96745/pro-brexit-tories-give-theresa

    Whether or not it’s a real threat or hot air, this is an environment where quite sadly the important stuff government should be doing is pushed to one side, as internal power struggles dominate.

  25. @R Huckle

    I so wish that back after the last GE Brexit negotiations were handed over to an all party group, given that TM had no majority.

    It’s too late now. Labour seem happy to given TM enough rope to hurt herself, despite the fact that a Tory leadership contest or GE now would be a nightmare at a critical time.

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

  26. As they say calm down dears we aren’t actually in the midsts of a GE these couple of polls mean very little in that context.
    What we’re witnessing is the end of the phoney war and the beginning of brexit no brexit.
    The cards are being laid out between a hard no deal and a more pragmatic brexit from the May camp.
    As the Tory cabinet are committed to a pragmatic exit this was bound to be the outcome, personally I think the fundamentalist brexiteers have played there main card in getting Trump to endorse his friend Johnson and the same as Obama quote “at the back of the queue” ,Trump goes to the Sun with no deal with a nod and a wink from Johnson and co.
    The difference is that Trump has had to back track mainly I suspect because those actually running America have told him he is being more idiotic than usual.
    Personally I suspect May is rather hopeful that the hard line brexiteers will force a vote of no confidence ,not that she wants yet another distraction but it will alienate the inner core of brexiteers and strengthen her position within the party and in the EU negotiations.

  27. Catmanjeff

    That Politics Home article is dated 11th July so is old news.

    It may be that the threat is still real but positions may have changed since the 11th.

    I suspect they will fall into line this week and the customs union amendment will be defeated narrowly and May will be ok in the short term.

    Then again, all eyes will be on Bojo’s speech this week. Will he do a Geoffrey Howe, and stick the boot in or will he bottle it and opt for a quiet life and pursue a career as a TV personality.

  28. This lunchtimes R4 World this Weekend went to a Conservative Party barbecue near Brentwood. In a vox pop interview a party activist, who presumably canvassed for Leave in the referendum, said ‘I thought all we had to do was sign a bit of paper and go’. If that was the level of knowledge of an activist two years on, what chance do politically disinterested voters stand?

  29. Steamdrivenandy

    Actually the person was right. In order to leave the Eu all we had to do was invoke article 50 – nothing after that actually HAD to done.

  30. Steam driven Andy:

    I don’t blame the activist at all.

    The leavers clearly bought into the constant diet of anti-EU propaganda in the Tory press and the vote leave campaign who told us all how easy it would all be and how much the UK would be holding all the cards.

    If it all wasn’t so tragic it would be funny.

    Still whichever side you support, it is never a dull day in the news these days.

    Quite what those in the EU must be thinking when looking across the channel at the shenanigans is any ones guess.

  31. So finally the Tories are dropping below 40%. Despite the obvious divisions in their party they have polled strongly over the past 12 months.

    No real bounce for Labour. It appears to be a switch from Con to UKIP by unhappy Brexit supporters.

    If the polls continue to show a Tory slump then it will ramp up the pressure on May. I would still expect a leadership challenge this summer once the 1922 receive 48 letters of no confidence in their leader.

  32. Looking at the Newsnow news feed website it seems that Theresa May’s revelation that Trump told her to sue the EU is dominating the news sites today.

    How do we think this will play.

    1. It will strengthen May by showing how she has carefully navigated the complexity of the situation by proposing a workable way forward that delivers on the referendum whilst maintaining the UK’s economic stability,

    2. Will draw attention to the fact that rather than taking s tough line on the EU, May has jettisoned some of her red lines and put herself into a weak negotiating position that she will almost certainly have to give further ground on.

    3. Something else….

  33. I think it shows how little even Brezit activists realised understood how integrated we are with the EU. Whilst we could have just walked I suspect that government and business food supplies, fuel etc would be in total paralysis within days. It is nice to think we might flounce, but in today’s connected world it would be calamity and no UK government could take that risk.

  34. @Tonybig – in as much as anyone will pay attention to what Trump said, I doubt that this revelation will make any difference to people’s views of Brexit.

    For those with just a modicum of understanding however, the news might make them realise just how stupid Trump utterances can be. There is no cause on which the UK could sue the EU, nor is there any court in which they could mount such an action. Trump is a misinformed idiot.

    I suppose that’s one possible effect of this. There a few very stupid Brexit supporters who think Trump is a useful ally for the UK and a suitable alternative for the EU. This might help one or two of them realise how misconceived they are, but then again, probably not.

  35. Sooner or later people will wonder if Labour could produce a brexit more in keeping with what UKIP voters want. They don’t have to say very much right now, nor do anything. But come an election – or an important commons vote – suddenly UKIP will be draining support from them too.

    Most UKIP supporters clearly thought the Brexit issue was settled; now perhaps it’s not, or not in the sense they might have imagined.

  36. Robert Courts resigns.

    “I have taken very difficult decision to resign position as PPS to express discontent with #Chequers in votes tomorrow. I had to think who I wanted to see in the mirror for the rest of my life. I cannot tell the people of WOxon that I support the proposals in their current form.”

  37. @KeithP

    There is no way that Labour would produce a UKIP friendly Brexit.

    It would simply be electoral suicide, considering most Labour voters wouldn’t support such a position, and virtually no Labour MPs.

  38. According to Tony Connelly, Mrs May has been briefing against the Irish to other leaders in the EU. word of this has got back to the Irish. It adds anger to a sense of bewilderment that the Irish feel over the negotiations. Why would she brief against the Irish except to try to weaken the EU position on the Irish border?

    In answer to a parliamentary question, Mrs May told Sammy Wilson of the DUP:

    ” “We have rejected the European Union’s proposal in relation to the protocol. The expectation is that there will be a protocol in the withdrawal agreement, but we have always made clear our belief that the best resolution of the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland will come within the overall trading relationship that we develop between the United Kingdom and the EU, and that is exactly what this plan delivers.”

    At present then the EU expectation that what was contained in the Joint Report had been agreed is unmet. It is unclear to me that the EU has had formal notification of this. It is likely the EU will know.

    The UK will do nothing to resolve the Irish border problem. It cannot. Joining EEA is not on the agenda of the Conservative party. The EU no longer seems to have the choice of allowing the protocol to apply to all of the UK rather than just NI even if that was always a long shot.

    The EU has a lot to think about. Mrs May looks to have run out of road

  39. I am going to agree with my mainly rightwing non bedfellows on this one

    1. I don’t think there is going to be an election soon. It is just not in May’s interest or that of the Tories.

    2. I don’t think there is going to be a challenge to May’s leadership. Most everyone that could do it have either excluded themselves or would wait until the Brexit die was cast. after all basically we have until end of the year to have a deal.

    3. the electorate is basically unclear about brexit

    if you look at the polls

    1. The electorate thinks that the negotiations are going badly.
    2. They think by a small margin that leavig is a bad idea
    3. they do not want a second vote
    4. and even those that do want it to be about different things

    essentially no PM or LofOpp can do much with that at best it is contradictory and at worst it flat out barmy

    having said that this is the same electorate that are happy to have free medical care in the EU continue but were happy to deny it to EU citizens. I can see why our negotiating position seems mad it mirrors the electorates

  40. I am going to agree with my mainly rightwing non bedfellows on this one

    1. I don’t think there is going to be an election soon. It is just not in May’s interest or that of the Tories.

    2. I don’t think there is going to be a challenge to May’s leadership. Most everyone that could do it have either excluded themselves or would wait until the Brexit die was cast. after all basically we have until end of the year to have a deal.

    3. the electorate is basically unclear about brexit

    if you look at the polls

    1. The electorate thinks that the negotiations are going badly.
    2. They think by a small margin that leavig is a bad idea
    3. they do not want a second vote
    4. and even those that do want it to be about different things

    essentially no PM or LofOpp can do much with that at best it is contradictory and at worst it flat out barmy

    having said that this is the same electorate that are happy to have free medical care in the EU continue but were happy to deny it to EU citizens. I can see why our negotiating position seems mad it mirrors the electorates

  41. It’s impossible for the Tories to unite the pro- and anti-EU factions of the party. The business/capitalism vs. Rule Britannia / wet & dry factions of the party are at interminable odds and have been for decades. Cameron rather foolishly decided to try and sort it out in one foul swoop and we are where we are. Either full-scale Tory re-invention, or destruction.

    Either way, I sense this current government doesn’t have long left. They cannot deliver a Brexit which will please their voters – and bear in mind a large number of their current voters are ‘borrowed’ and were nowhere near the Tories 10-20 years ago.

    Likewise with Labour they are polling high but not high enough, but they aren’t in government. They aren’t annoying anyone *enough* and 12.8m voters will do them very well if they remain loyal in the next election.

  42. @CATMANJEFF

    Indeed, Labour and UKIP are so poles apart in nearly every way – the economy, social attitudes etc – it’s unthinkable they Labour would produce a UKIP-friendly Brexit. For whatever reason, Labour has been very socially liberal for the last few decades whereas I doubt UKIP is so inclusive.

    But this is why we are at this impasse. Pro- and anti- Brexit voters straddle both parties (unevenly, yes) whereas over all other issues UKIP/Tories and Labour are at total odds. Ok, May says many liberal things but we all know she follows through with absolutely b*gger all. Can anyone name a policy apart from Brexit which she has championed and improved the country with in 2 years?

    All Labour have to do is sound a little bit Brexity but let the Tories get on with it. If it goes well, it’ll do so with Labour’s blessing. If not, of course Labour will point out all the areas where they tried to differ, and reap the benefits of the Tory implosion.

  43. Could we see (as I saw written elsewhere today) a Tory split and new pro-EU party forming made up of remain Tory and Labour MPs? This could easily take a third of the Tory VI with it.

    However it could also take a significant share of the Labour VI with it too. If this were to be followed by Farage returning to UKIP and re-energising it, a significant shift from Tory to UKIP could occur, as well as many pro-Brexit Labour supporters from the North.

    This could lead to a four-party state of affairs with each party having strongholds in different parts of the country. Quite what the VI of each would be is anyone’s guess!

    How feasible does everyone think this could be?

  44. AM

    Ah the oft muted coalition party made up of disaffected MP’s from different parties.
    My opinion not a hope in hell ,forget brexit think party politics they would be squabbling like a bunch of ferrets in a sack once it came to setting an agenda for policy post brexit.
    Much like UKIP what would the point of such a party be after brexit they would be signing up for a rather short political career .

  45. KEITHP

    Sooner or later people will wonder if Labour could produce a brexit more in keeping with what UKIP voters want. They don’t have to say very much right now, nor do anything. But come an election – or an important commons vote – suddenly UKIP will be draining support from them too.

    Except they never had much in the way of ex-UKIP voters in the first place. Ashcroft has has only 17% of the 2015 UKIP vote going to Labour in 2017:

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/GE-post-vote-poll-Full-tables.pdf#page=5

    making up only 5.2% of those who voted for it – and this is probbaly a slight over-estimate as Ashcroft’s sample had Labour too low in total. Even many of the 5% may have other reasons for switching in any case. ‘Lexiteers’ aren’t that many but they do exist and hope of a more leftwing Labour might over-rule any feelings about the EU.

    It can’t be emphasised enough just how unimportant Brexit is to many people. Like many pollsters Opinium ask Which of the following are the most important issues facing the country? Please select up to three options.

    Health / NHS 61 % (-4)

    European Union and Brexit 51 % (+9)

    Economy 32 % (+7)

    Immigration 31 % (-)

    Terrorism 19 % (-11)

    Crime, justice and human rights 17 % (+2)

    Housing / house prices 14 % (-1)

    Social services / benefits 11 % (-1)

    Education 10 % (-)

    Defence 10 % (+5)

    Environmental issues 7 % (-2)

    Energy / power 4 % (+1)

    Unemployment / jobs 4 % (-7)

    Constitutional issues / Devolution 4 % (+2)

    Transport 2 % (-2)

    Foreign affairs (excluding the EU) 2 % (-1)

    Other (please specify) 2 % (+1)

    Changes () are since last Opinium 5-7 Jun. As you can see the news coverage has raised Brexit’s profile, but it still is only second in people’s worries to Health and even now only half of those polled put it in their three most important issues.

  46. From Catmanjeff’s and OldNat’s comments it seems DEltapoll are a valid polling company. As BPC members they should release the missing figures but I can’t find anything yet. Without the UKIP figure we cannot tell if Opinium’s are a blip or not.

  47. BazinWales

    For a while, Deltapoll might just be releasing data via email – “Deltapoll is just starting out on its journey, and so is this website”, they say.

  48. PASSTHEROCKPLEASE

    […] I don’t think there is going to be a challenge to May’s leadership. Most everyone that could do it have either excluded themselves or would wait until the Brexit die was cast. after all basically we have until end of the year to have a deal.

    But nobody needs to “do it”. All that has to happen is that “15% of Conservative MPs write to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee saying they no longer have confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party” to quote the House of Commons Briefing written at the time of the last election in July 2016:

    http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf#page=3

    There doesn’t have to be any alternative candidate, plausible or otherwise. It doesn’t even need an organised campaign by disaffected MPs – Graham Brady already has a number of requests ‘on file’, allegedly about 40. So a few backbenchers could randomly trigger a vote of confidence among Tory MPs if they push the number up to 48.

    The actual rules under which any such votes takes place are shrouded in mystery. I couldn’t find a copy and I get the impression that the 1922 Committee make them up in each case. The only time it happened before (to remove IDS in 2003) the vote was carried out the next day (see p 9-10 above) and IDS was quickly dispatched, but if the ‘men in grey suits’ have decided that a contest would be a bad idea, then there might be all sorts of ways to delay or avoid one. But no alternative candidate needs to declare until May has been axed.

    It would be unwise to write off May at the moment (though who would blame her for resigning?) and I suspect she would win a vote of confidence fairly easily (and unlike a full leadership contest quickly). I don’t think Tory MPs think they are in a bad enough state to need to do it and she still has enough (if declining) support in the country. But a vote of confidence would weaken her and undermine the Brexit negotiations.

    And the UK doesn’t have ’till the end of the year to do a deal’. They need to get the Withdrawal Agreement finalised this Summer (which a leadership contest would probably kill off).

    {…] if you look at the polls…
    The electorate […] do not want a second vote
    4. and even those that do want it to be about different things

    It varies between polls and depends very heavily on what wording is used and what options there are. The Opinium poll asked the following Once we know what terms the government has negotiated, should there be a public vote on the outcome of the deal negotiated with the EU? (tab VI12)

    Yes – there should be a public vote to decide between accepting the deal or leaving without accepting the deal 25%

    Yes – there should be a public vote to decide between accepting the deal or remaining in the European Union 25%

    No – there should not be a public vote after the government has negotiated the terms of leaving the EU 33%

    Don’t know 17%

    So only a third were opposed (and it’s possible the DKs included those who wanted another option).

  49. Slight HTML fail there. The two lines “It varies …the following” should not be in italics.

    Also the Opinion issues polling is on Tab Vis1 of their Excel tables:

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/VI-10-07-2018-Website-Tables.xlsx

  50. Bazinwales

    Deltapoll have libdems on 7 and UKIP on 6 but I don’t know what change that is from their last poll. It does however fit with the trend of UKIP being on higher figures than they have been recently backing up what opinium found. Eagerly awaiting the next YouGov poll to see if there are any further changes, will be interesting to see their best prime minister results aswell as the past 2 you gov polls didn’t ask the question. I feel that Corbyn may finally lead on that question as May had been dropping in recent weeks anyway and the fallout from chequers can only have hastened that decline.

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