Following the midweek YouGov poll, there are two more polls in today’s papers showing the Conservatives falling back behind Labour in the wake of the cabinet Brexit “deal” and the Davis/Johnson resignations.

Opinum in the Observer, conducted between Tuesday and Friday, has topline figures of CON 36%(-6), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 8%(+5). Changes are from June. There is also new Deltapoll figures in the Sun on Sunday, which have the Conservatives on 37%(-4) and Labour on 42%(+1) – changes are again on June.

This means we now have three polls conducted since the Davis/Johnson resignations, all of which have shown Conservative support dropping down behind Labour (and for Opinium and YouGov at least, showing UKIP up… I don’t have the Deltapoll figure for UKIP yet, but I expect we’ll see the same there).

Full details of the Opinium poll are up on their website here, and other questions paint a generally negative picture for the government. Just 25% of people now approve of May’s handling of Brexit (down 5 since last month), 56% disapprove (up 11). Her general approval figures have fallen to much the same extent, down to minus 24 from minus 8 last month.

Asked specifically about the Chequers deal, however, the public are evenly split. 32% of people approve of the Chequers plan, 32% do not, 35% are either neutral or don’t know. Support is higher among remain voters, opposition higher among leavers. For those intrigued by the difference between be neutral rating here and the negative rating in the YouGov question mid week, one obvious difference in the question is that YouGov asked people if they supported or opposed the deal based on whatever they had seen or heard about it, Opinium gave a short description of the deal in the question, focusing on Britain following EU rules on goods, avoiding a hard border, collecting EU tariffs and being about to set its own tariffs for non-EU countries. As with any policy, I expect many people’s reactions to the deal are based not upon looking at the details, but taking their cues from political and media reaction to it.


480 Responses to “Two more polls show the Conservatives dropping behind Labour”

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  1. TonyBTG

    “Methinks they will come back with new amendments for Parl. to wage war over.”

    But with Parliament in recess till 4 September, and the EU have made clear that the process of confirmation of any agreement(s) will need to begin in October, the ping pong between the bits of what the UK pretends to be a legislature, will have all the importance of a Fantasy Football League.

  2. Tony,

    4 Labour rebels on Customs Union vote and only 12 Tories so HMG win by 6 votes.

    must have been some others voting against whip, maybe a few Lab abstentions or missing MPs from other parties again as net 8 should have produced opposition victory

  3. Turk

    But apparently that was what they were threatening.

    I agree with you – there is just no way the ERG would have carried through with their threat,

    Hence the remainers should have called their bluff. But they bottled.

  4. @TonyBTG

    Nothing would surprise me with the Tories.

    They probably think that “no confidence” and a proper Brexit general election with a new leader is a rational step.

  5. I know we all need a holiday every now and then, but in my line of work, if things are not looking good for hitting a deadline, most people will work extra hours and cancel holidays if needed (at no extra pay usually, I might add).

    So for parliament to take even a completely normal holiday (let alone an extended one) means they must be satistied that they’ve got all their work done and in order and deserve a break. Can’t see many people agreeing with that assessment.

  6. RO

    It’s a perfectly good argument as my suggestion was that MPs had found the room in the commons perfect adequate since the war restorations when of course one assumes the things you refer to were in good order and of course Churchill can hardly be blamed for the dilapidated state of Parliament today.
    Even under the new restoration plans debated in the House ,was there any indication that more room was going to be made in the debating chamber itself in fact the MPs went to great lengths to say the house should retain its national heritage status. And the restoration would confine itself to the structure of the building and services infrastructure .

  7. So it seems the Tories broke pairing agreements to secure tonight’s Government win:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1019298949344219137?s=19

    “Bloody instructions which, being taught return to plague the inventor “?

  8. TED/JimJam

    “Hoey, Field and Stringer plus the suspended Hopkins for the majority of 3 vote. Not sure if any abstentions.”

    Looks like 20 Labour MPs did not vote. However 27 Tories did not vote either, and most may have been paired.

    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2018-07-16/division/D5772CB5-4BCD-4233-8765-36A5750236E3/Taxation(Cross-BorderTrade)Bill?outputType=Chart

  9. Trigguy: conversely, MPs are not just legislators, they are also representatives.

    The vast majority from all parties will spend their summers working their backsides off making sure Mrs Trellis can get planning permission and the like.

    Basically, there aren’t enough hours in the day for MPs to do all that is expected of them.

  10. Apparently Govt. broke the deal on an agreed pairing tonight.

    All bets off in future votes I guess. Govt. can hardly complain if someone breaks a pairing when a govt. minister is away on business for example.

  11. Hireton – thanks for the info on that pairing deception. Horrible isn’t it?

  12. They are claiming its a mistake. Convenient.

  13. Perhaps pairing should be made formal so that mistakes can’t happen.

  14. Don’t believe Trump’s explanation – it seems unlikely he meant to say “wouldn’t”.

  15. Trump in one of the most implausible and embarrassing climb downs I’ve ever seen from a world leader,

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44864739

    You just couldn’t write this stuff.

    He makes our government look competent.

  16. Tony BTG

    “He makes our government look competent.”

    Now, that’s going too far!

  17. Tonybtg

    Agreed its implausible. The whole tone and context of Trump’s words were emollient towards Putin so “would” is much more in fitting with that tone than “wouldn’t”. It is simply not possible to believe Trump here. Its absurd in fact.

  18. Old nat

    No I misspoke. I meant to say incompetent not competent :-)

  19. Sky News journo tweet

    BREAKING: am told EU is going issue very strongly worded emergency guidelines tomorrow telling member states to immediately step up preparations for ‘No Deal’ Brexit. They might be watching Parliament right now…

  20. Labour lead Tories by 5 points in YouGov poll

    ht3tps://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1019329326557384704?s=19

  21. ProfHoward,

    As Jo Swinson says in her twitter feed they should have proxy voting and end the antedeluvian pairing system

  22. Andrew – Jo Swinson talks a lot of sense.

  23. Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 36% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    UKIP: 7% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 16 – 17 Jul
    h/t @SamCoatesTimes

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1019329326557384704

  24. Fascinating to see Labour pull ahead in the poll and to see a rise in support for a second referendum in the poll.

  25. Remain people will be encouraged by these polls – conducted by a very highly regarded polling agency. There is a big remain lead when second preferences are redistributed.

  26. @Oldnat
    BREAKING: am told EU is going issue very strongly worded emergency guidelines tomorrow telling member states to immediately step up preparations for ‘No Deal’ Brexit. They might be watching Parliament right now

    So we face the prospect of a no deal Brexit for which we are totally unprepared and for which we have no credible plan or remain which neither of the two main party leaders has the courage to advocate and which may not even be legally possible. And to cap it all we have a government that wants no deal but has no credible negotiating position for getting one,

  27. Good evening all from Clarkston East Renfrewshire.

    Had a lovely day in Largs today on the North Ayrshire coast. Much more upmarket than scruffy old Blackpool.

    Back to polling….Labour 5 points above the Tories! This is tragic stuff for May.

    Strong and stable…kiss my arse.

  28. Brian Walker on Slugger: Go further Theresa, even if it means splitting the party. And Leo, ease up on the backstop if she does.

    Pressure may soon become irresistible for Theresa May to go against the habit of a lifetime and take a terrific political life or death gamble. Opening up beyond her bedraggled Facilitated Customs Arrangement unveiled at Chequers is Labour’s choice of a customs union – if not now, in the autumn. But this will mean a huge bustup and split in the Conservative party and require Labour support – official or unofficial – to pass.

    In the meantime, the Tainaiste is reconciled to customs checks in Ireland Two academics writing in the Irish Times voice a view that has already been aired in Dublin – that the backstop is a problem all round, not the fundamental one of course, but a problem none the less.

    Ultra conservative as usual, but worth reading in full.

  29. @Carfrew and @Alberto – Savory is a complete charlatan. The video TED talk is complete nonsense, and says a lot more about the self promotional value of TED talks than it does about reversing desertification.

    I’m continually amazed that there are so many shockingly gullible people out there prepared to believe in utter rubbish, when 30 seconds of internet searching and a wee bit of common sense would demonstrate the idiocy of what is being claimed.

  30. New thread everyone.

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