YouGov have a new poll in the Times tonight conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, after the resignations of David Davis and Boris Johnson. It suggests public opinon is breaking against the Chequers Brexit deal, and that public confidence in the government’s handling of Brexit is falling ever further.

Only 13% of people now think the Chequers Brexit deal would be good for Britain (down 1 since the pre-resignation poll at the weekend), 42% think it would not (up 9). 23% think it respects the referendum deal (down 4), 39% think it does not (up 10). Just 13% of people now think that the governemnt are handling the Brexit negotiations well, down from 18% at the weekend.

On voting intention, Labour have reopened a small lead, the first from YouGov since March. Topline figures have the Tories on 37% (down 2), Labour unchanged on 39%. The changes themselves are within the normal margin of error, but coming on top of the YouGov and Survation polls conducted at the the weekend which both showed a drop in the Conservative lead, it doesn’t look positive for them (though that said, an ICM poll earlier today, conducted between Friday and Monday, did not suggest any movement). As ever, it is worth waiting for other post-resignation polls to see if it turns out to be a consistent pattern, or just noise.


451 Responses to “YouGov poll shows opinion turning against Chequers Brexit deal”

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  1. “@Turk and @Colin – me too. You aren’t necessarily xenophobic just because you worry about immigration and overpopulation.”
    @Alec July 14th, 2018 at 7:14 pm

    What on earth does overpopulation mean? We are overpopulated with old people. Is that the problem you are talking about?

  2. Very interesting front page headline in the MoS: “Back me or there’ll be no Brexit, says May”

    This seems to me to be the first time it has been acknowledged that the options are not “Deal or No Deal” but “Deal or Remain”.

    It will be interesting to see if there is any polling on the options as presented by TM and, if so, whether there is any significant variation compared to the normal leave/Remain deadlock, particularly in the context of the Observer poll.

  3. Alec: I wasn’t commenting specifically on any comments on this thread – apols if it gave that impression. I was really just prompted to make an observation about my overall impression of the immigration debate.

    Hmm. Not to put too fine a point on it, if you weren’t “commenting specifically on any comments on this thread,” It’s not entirely clear,why you started your post with:

    @Turk and @Colin – me too. You aren’t necessarily xenophobic just because you worry about immigration and overpopulation.

    So you appeared to be endorsing Turk’s earlier comment:

    The other thing that didn’t help was people who wanted to talk about immigration being branded xenophobic in a crass attempt to stifle a sensible conversation on the subject something that is still unbelievably going on today even on these pages.

    That might or might not have been a reference to my original point about generational differences in levels of xenophobia, but as I said, I can’t see anything else posted today that could have prompted Turk’s outpburst (and the subsequent Little Sir Echo endorsement), to which your “me too” appeared to refer.

    Anyway, it’s interesting to discover that mention of xenophobia is such a reliable way to ignite right-wing fuses.

  4. OLDNAT @ BZ

    Mea culpa. I have this crazy idée fixe that some sensible parties will eventually agree that democracy wouldn’t be a bad idea.

  5. @Charles and @Jim Jam – to be clear, I was talking about the EU’s free movement of labour, as in the specific set of rights within the EU aquis.

    I would agree that unmanaged mass labour migration is bad, with adverse impacts in both host and donor country, but there are some hideous pecul!arities under EU law that are just plain wrong.

    For example, the Posted Workers Directive allows EU businesses to contract labour in one member state to do work in another, with the employer being legally liable to meet employment terms and conditions in the country of employment – not the country where the work is being done.

    There is therefore a misconception (@Charles – I think you fell for this) that so long as minimum wage legislation was met, things would be OK. The trouble is that workers in the UK could be paid Romanian minimum wages and be perfectly legal, if the employment contracts are correctly constructed. I’m not rabid Brexiters, but sorry – the EU has got this one absolutely and fundamentally wrong.

    To give credit to Corbyn, he campaigned on reforming this in the referendum, but it is one example where the EU supporters allowed a far too uncritical view of free movement to take hold, along with the ensuing belittling of those who disputed it’s merits. Sadly, as has been covered already, the rest of the EU lacked the wit and foresight to deal with the excesses.

    This was always a worry of mine, as it signalled that ‘free movement’ had become ingrained as a fundamental principle, rather than as a mechanism to make people’s lives better, and so any attempt to alter and improve it became an attack on the EU.

    [I wuld also add that the extension of the free movement of labour to the free movement of citizens under Maastricht was a mistake, in my view].

  6. BZ

    I’m unsure whether your idea that parties in UKania are capable of being sensible is more or less a warped illusion than that they think democracy might be a good thing.

    :-) :-)

  7. @Davwell: “https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/07/14/airbus-fury-loss-raf-deal-brexit-warning/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget
    Is the government giving this big contract to Boeing, to the annoyance of Airbus, another example of Theresa May`s foolish love-in with Donald Trump?”

    I think it is a very good example of how Remainers and Leavers see the world differently:

    – To me, it is obvious that the big story here is that the government appear to have prompted Airbus’s recent statements.

    – To you, the story is that the government is favouring a US firm to butter up Trump.

    Meanwhile other stories:

    – Mandelson comes out against soft-Brexit: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/14/chequers-compromise-brexit-worst-of-of-both-worlds-peter-mandelson. Says it does not make sense and is worse than leaving completely. (NB: That is what the Remain campaign said during the referendum.)

    – Also, a poll suggesting big shift from Tory to UKIP: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election

    So, much as would be expected, calls for a Soft Brexit begin to disappear when confronted with one. They turn into calls that staying in the EU would be far more logical – and talk of “an ideological hard Brexit” turns into recognition that leaving the EU is either done properly or not at all.

    I think May is 90% on the road to giving Labour what it wanted – a point of crisis which Labour does not need to precipitate.

  8. ON,

    If my post is Anglo-centric is in unintentional.

    My point is that a Scottish floating voter who wants to support the party with the softest Brexit position can choose the SNP as they are credible in all Scottish seats.

    Most English or Welsh voters with that mindset do not have a credible party offering a softer Brexit than Labour to support.

    So let me phrase it that most floating voters in the UK do not have a credible party to support who are offering a softer Brexit position than Labour so are mostly staying put with some moving to DK; some of those who wish a softer Brexit than Labour are proposing in constituencies where the SNP, LDs or Greens have a realistic chance of winning seats are moving their VI to those parties.

    There may well be other reasons for Labour performing less well in Scotland in VI compared to the 2017 GE than in E&W of course.

  9. @BZ

    Sandy Pop looks fun, and as a water ice probably quite refreshing. I guess the name is a play on sandía (watermelon).

    I had a look at the Kalise website and it’s quite interesting. I assumed it was a division of Unlilever or P&G, but in fact it’s entirely Spanish owned, and based in Menorca.

  10. JOSEPH1832

    But London is an area with a 40% non-white electorate, and being in an ethnic minority is the greatest indicator of voting Remain.

    Oddly enough it isn’t. On an individual level it’s a fairly good indicator of how someone will vote – 68% of BME voters in Ashcroft ‘s sample were Remain:

    But it wasn’t even the strongest demographic – 73% of under-25s were Remain – and education 81% of students and 64% of those with a higher university degree was also a strong marker. What might appear to be purely social attitudes were even more telling. People who were opposed to the Green movement were 78% Leave; those against Feminism 74%; who said they were more English than British 79%.

    However what we are talking is whether more diverse areas were likely to vote Remain and this can assessed in many cases because the BBC were able to get the breakdown of the result at ward level in a lot of cases:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38762034

    and this can be compared with the ward statistics from the 2011 Census. A particularly interesting analysis was done by the blogger The Stats Guy:

    http://www.statsguy.co.uk/brexit-voting-and-education/

    He was particularly interested in testing the association that had been found at the individual level between Education and voting Remain, which he found to be strongly confirmed, but he also looked at Leave vs ethnicity. This showed that:

    although populations with more white people were mostly more likely to vote leave, that relationship breaks down in populations with particularly high numbers of ethnic minorities.

    It’s interesting to note that the minimum for the % voting leave is a little over 40% white population. I suspect that the important thing here is not so much what the proportion of white people is, but how diverse a population is. Once the proportion of white people becomes very low, then maybe the population is just as lacking in diversity as populations where the proportion of white people is very high

    and the graph is certainly very telling – though even heavily non-white wards were less Leave than heavily while ones.

    The blog gives a number of provisos on this research and I’d add that in this case the number of wards with a low % of whites is comparatively small and might differ depending on what LAs supplied data. And of course measuring ‘diversity’ as a crude white/non-white split isn’t subtle. But it does suggest that living in mixed areas makes people more open to seeing the EU as a good thing, which given that the EU is a mixed community itself makes sense.

  11. PETE B Polltroll
    “…by the apparent rebirth of UKIP, in an even further-right guise than their previous incarnation?”
    “Why do you think UKIP’s resurgence will be ‘even further right’?”

    My guess is that this would be because, unlike that nice Mr Farage, the one who looked like John McCririck and the one who pretended to split up with his racist girlfriend just before things went really strange even by ukip standards, the current leader is a self proclaimed and unashamed Islamophobe, apparently a supporter of Tommy Robinson and on record as wanting to take the party to the hard right?

  12. PETE B

    Why do you think UKIP’s resurgence will be ‘even further right’? I’ve not seen anything to suggest this. Genuinely interested, not being provocative.

    It’s certainly been quite widely suggested:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-alt-right-members-paul-joseph-watson-mark-meechan-carl-benjamin-a8418116.html

    http://www.newsweek.com/alt-right-social-media-activists-welcomed-member-britain-ukip-994905

  13. ON @ 8.57 pm

    You may be right and its Birmingham police up in Aberdeen – I can`t read the insignia on the photos showing many police vans parked up here.

    If so, I feel even sorrier for these officers having had a still longer couped-up journey in the vans and then a hard sleep on the conference centre floor, just to deal with a tiny eventuality during a tycoon`s vanity trip..

    I question the whole concept of sending police long distances from their home bases. Each year we have London police helping to guard the Royal family at Balmoral, and they are lacking in our basic geography; also their Cockney speech is difficult for many of us locals to follow, And doubtless they have just as much difficulty with many Aberdeenshire locals.

    But worse, their Metropolitan police intercom equipment doesn`t pick up the communications of our local emergency services. I hope that Police Scotland have got this sorted now.

    Peter SNP:

    Thanks, your insight explains. But do Boeing or the US have a monopoly on this plane type?

  14. @ALEC
    I said many, many times pre 2016 that the casual dismissal of such concerns under the ‘bigot’ headline was dangerous and opened up the way for Farage and others to exploit legitimate concerns, which is what has transpired.

    As this is nominally a polling site I drop this one every now and then: Every poll I have seen about two items welfare/social security and immigration produces very contradictory results.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/02/immigration-immigrants-british-people

    So if we fear albanians because they are by an large not here nigerians because of webscams then how do we answer the issue that you raised

    Icannot find the one on social security but it produces the same results that is people generalise to the point of misinformation . Indeed you see it on this site all too often

    As I have said people have voted for 20B in cuts because they believe the scroungers versus strivers narrative indeed both electorate voted for it (Cameron’s victory) the HoC voted for it (Labour even abstained despite opposing it in the bloody manifesto) and yet despite the will of the people no one wanted it. and everyone was glad that it was scrapped (yes this was the will of the people despite not having a vote)

    I do not have an answer to this but in the end I can’t understand why someone is afraid of spiders. our fear can be irrational how do you answer the irrationality.

    The trouble is that workers in the UK could be paid Romanian minimum wages and be perfectly legal, if the employment contracts are correctly constructed. I’m not rabid Brexiters, but sorry – the EU has got this one absolutely and fundamentally wrong.

    This is completely wrong you have to be paid the NMW of the country you are in so if you were posted in Romania you could be paid NMW of romania but if you are posted in the UK it has to be the UK rate. I am actually surprised that you don’t know that it is actually posted on the UK government website. I have had to deal with EU transfers and the like form eastern europe as when I worked in NI I had to manage an office in Romania

    it is the lack of factual analysis which annoy me as I said in the information age we are pretty much uninformed. Indeed your statement made me go back and look at the bl00dy thing.

  15. Quite a significant sense of big things on the move tonight. It’s only one poll, but the sharp slump in Con support looks alarming for the blues, and follows a week of internal party strife. Add on the resignation of a minister over a sex scandal and news that Labour remainers are lining up with the Smoggster to scupper the deal, and it looks like we are getting close to the end game.

    As even May notes now, the option for full on remain seems to be back on the table, with only the question of the mechanism of getting there needing to be worked out. May herself has made a decent start, by framing such a weak leaving proposal as to make the choice pretty obvious.

    After two years of leavers hiding from the truth and remainers hiding behind the sofa, the real business started this week. Issues can no longer be ducked, bravado has been replaced with detail and it’s none too pretty. With Opinium finding that half of voters now want a second vote and remainers now finding themselves given an open goal by the hard Brexiters saying that the leaving plan is worse than staying in, it’s game on.

    For the first time since the referendum, all the options are now back on the table once again.

  16. Alec,

    For the first time since the referendum, all the options are now back on the table once again.

    Which is why imo ERG et al will back down at some point for a scrap or 2 and ‘allow’ the PM to continue with the chequers template.

    NB) hope I am wrong and we get a GE.

  17. Labour 5 points ahead in a poll for the sun on sunday according to the sun on sunday’s political editor. No %s yet though.

    https://twitter.com/DavidWooding/status/1018244216517005315

  18. Jim Jam

    “My point is that a Scottish floating voter who wants to support the party with the softest Brexit position can choose the SNP as they are credible in all Scottish seats.”

    I think that you are still seeing voting in Scotland through the eyes of someone from a polity where there is only one constitutional divide.

    A confirmed UK Unionist may (and lots do) float between any of the Unionist parties, but voting for an indy-supporting party may not be an option for them.

    Someone who is neutral on indy, but strongly pro-Remain may well vote SNP (or SGP) as parties that have consistently argued for no Brexit or (if we are dragged out against our will) the softest option of Single Market and CU membership.

    It’s simply that the constitutional issues are more complex here, so the number of your putative floating voters who will decide largely on the softness of Brexit is correspondingly small.

  19. JIM JAM

    IMO the chequers plan is an even bigger electoral disaster for the Comservative Party than Thatcher’s Poll Tax.

    You only have to read the letters and articles on Conservative Home to see that.

  20. ON – fair enough.

  21. Pete B,
    “I don’t know where this idea comes from that fewer foreign nationals in an area mean the Leave vote is higher.”

    it comes from analysis conducted and published after the referendum and posted here at that time. Cant give you a link now.

    Went,
    “if Opinium is to be believed, this time it seems to be gaining them back from the Tories alone”

    Some caution is needed. The figures mostly only show headline numbers. While labour total might seem to be standing still, it could be labour voters shifting to libs or dont know, while tories are also flying to lab as well as UKIP. I outlined why brexiteers might prefer to support a remain party than the May compromise.

    Bazinwales,
    “The minister for small business, Andrew Griffiths, has resigned from the government after sending text messages of a sexual nature to two female constituents”

    Needed an excuse to get out, did he?

  22. @ALEC
    Quite a significant sense of big things on the move tonight. It’s only one poll, but the sharp slump in Con support looks alarming for the blues, and follows a week of internal party strife. Add on the resignation of a minister over a sex scandal and news that Labour remainers are lining up with the Smoggster to scupper the deal, and it looks like we are getting close to the end game.,

    Do not count your chickens: Firstly May major issue is staying in power and then getting the party to stay in line. remaining in the EU cannot happen because every mechanism for doing so is opposed by the majority.

    Basically the polls say the following

    1. the electorate will not let parliament decide we can remain
    2. the electorate will not sanction a second referendum
    3. the electorate think that leaving is a bad idea

    This is a game of pass the parcel only it is a bomb. You can never tell the electorate is wrong. You cannot tell them that their past actions have got them here and you definitely can’t tell them that what they want is undeliverable.

    As per my post above how do you tell someone that is scared of spiders in the UK the average spider is less than 0.3g and that your average female weighs over 70kg. Especially when the press show pictures of bird eating spiders
    ;-)

    For the first time since the referendum, all the options are now back on the table once again.

    Nothing has changed as I see it people are going to vote UKIP because they want their unicorns and that there is a realisation that the party they supported will not get that for them. May cannot tell the UK populace you were wrong and at the moment the what she did to get her coalition together by saying they were right. Is failing but she is in power.

    She needs everyone to agree to a second vote (labour will abstain they cannot do anything other than abstain or else they lose their leave vote). May has not enough MPs that will want a second vote so that will shut off the only route to change.

    Remain will only be on the table when people want a second vote. My argument is that they will want a second vote in two years time when it is too late. There is no poll that counters this view unfortunately

  23. Labour surging to a 5 point lead would perhaps be more accurately described as Tories decline to a 5 point deficit.

    Labour may put a point or 2 on with those pollsters who don’t reallocate Don’t Knows due to the ostensible fall in turnout but I doubt they are gaining any extra after Churn.

  24. SOMERJOHN @ BZ

    It is indeed mainly watermelon flavour, with the green “rind” kiwi fruit flavour plus chocolate pips.

    It was very popular with my kids from about age 3 and my late mother into her 80s.

  25. PTRP,

    Don’t be sure labour would abstain if the second ref proposition came from HMG. It would depend on what the ref was on.

    One based on a yes or no to a deal around the chequers plan, that most voters don’t know or want to know the esoteric details of, would not be supported but something like no deal of remain might be.

  26. No deal or remain oops.

  27. @Alec “The trouble is that workers in the UK could be paid Romanian minimum wages and be perfectly legal, if the employment contracts are correctly constructed”

    You are right. I was unaware of this and it is clearly a pretty outrageous anomaly. I still think that in principle the way to deal with immigration is through minimum wage legislation and proper training for indigenous workers and fair conditions for all, If this EU legislation is having a big effect, I think that getting rid of it should be made one of the ingredients of a good deal,

  28. Here’s May’s comments on Brexit to the Mail on Sunday

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5954683/THERESA-MAYs-steely-warning-Tory-rebels-bully-boys-Brussels.html

    I understand her wish to get Tory Brexiteers on board for the “plan”. What is missing (as expected) is any indication of the next step if the EU’s response isn’t enthusiastic over the Eccles cake recipe.

  29. @JIM JAM

    As I said previously some people think that Corbyn and his team are uncalculating ideological marxists.

    he is much smarter than people have given him credit for. If you listen to him he sees the problem beyond the argument of the EU referendum (i think he was very accurate in his appraisal of the EU a 7 out of 10, For him being in the EU is not make or break.

    Now the problem I see is how do you get form an uptick in UKIP support to a vote on remaining in the EU.

    I don’t see a route for the Tories, Indeed for many it would lead to the idea of a no deal being better than a ‘bad’ deal, where bad is electorally bad. At worst it would lead to those UKIP votes coming back and a possibly some conservative remain votes going elsewhere but at close to 40% it is worth a chance, the alternative is to carry on regardless, which in fact is what the polls have been saying to do. the polls have given no party an out an alternative strategy we are locked in the gravity of this and despite everyone not wanting to be here no one can agree on a different location let alone have the fuel to get there

    As I said this is Iraq all over: we will agree it is a sh1tstorm and just carry on as if it isn’t

  30. @Alec and PTRP I have just apologised to Alec for my ignorance of a fact which PTRP says is not a fact at all, As you are both expert witnesses could you collaborate and produce as such witnesses are sometimes required to do an agreed position?

  31. @ALEC
    @CHARLES

    https://www.gov.uk/working-abroad/posted-workers

    At this point someone tell me where you get the idea that I can pay someone in the UK romanian NMW as a posted worker please show me where

  32. Charles

    I’d like some specifics too. My memory is that the position that Alec described was previously the case, but that EU law has recently (or will soon change) to the PTRP position.

    On such matters, however, I’ve learned not to assume that I understood what I read elsewhere – or even remember it correctly!

  33. Danny
    “The challenge for the tories is how to recapture the remain vote and abandon both Brexit and leave voters.”

    This is certainly an idiosyncratic view. Who exactly would then represent the 52% majority who voted for Brexit? Ok, there’s UKIP and a few very minor parties but that doesn’t seem right even in our own very skewed version of democracy.

    Labour’s deliberate ambiguity is very cynical.

  34. ALEC/CHARLES

    The Posted Workers Directive is actually in the process of being amended:

    http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/04/11/posting-of-workers-council-confirms-the-compromise-text-agreed-with-the-european-parliament/

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/european-parliament-votes-in-favour-of-the-revision-on-posted-workers/

    which seems likely to outlaw some, if not all, of the abuses. Of course enforcement is another matter, but then complaining about lax EU rules when failing to enforce even those that exist is not exclusive to the UK.

  35. @OLDNAT

    I cannot remember when the directive was changed but it was seen as a loophole when things were introduced as the person I was dealing with in all thing EU in the NI pointed out. The intent was not to drag wages down but to lift them up and the issue came about actually between a country that had a NMW and one that did not exposing the issue
    it is indeed one of the reason why Germany now has a NMW (it did not previously and indeed was one of the last EU countries to institute a NMW)

  36. @jimjam, true to some degree. Deltapoll figures only available for the top two at the moment,

    Lab 42 (+1)
    Con 37 (-4)

  37. @OLDNAT

    I cannot remember when the directive was changed but it was seen as a loophole when things were introduced as the person I was dealing with in all thing EU in the NI pointed out. The intent was not to drag wages down but to lift them up and the issue came about actually between a country that had a NMW and one that did not exposing the issue
    it is indeed one of the reason why Germany now has a NMW (it did not previously and indeed was one of the last EU countries to institute a NMW)

    The fact is minimum legal requirement in most countries put their NMW as the standard for post workers is something that the directive allows and in the UK and German law at least means that you cannot be paid a lower rate of NMW as a posted worker

    The changes in the law were sent to me in in 2011 when I left the post where I dealt with the issue and from my understanding of the law at the time in the UK you could not pay romanian NMW for posted workers. I know this because I spoke to an immigration lawyer at the time and they had a number of cases whereby building contractors had misread the law and were being prosecuted since they had hired workers on local rates and posted them to the UK. Simply put they are breaking the current law in the UK and Germany at least and I think they ost probably are breaking the law elsewhere in the EU.

    I have had many interactions with Brussels before I became a contractor and most of the regulations are agreed minimums not maximums

  38. Charles

    PTRP provided the evidence. The story is quite interesting though.

    It started in.Sweden with a Latvian company about 15 years ago. Eventually the ECJ decided for the Latvian company, which then led Sweden to change all the traditional informal collective bargaining rules into law, so it blocked the way to Alec’s solution of protecting little birds from Romanian migrants.

    A couple of years later the German constitutional court declared that the ECJ is not superior to the German constitution and oddly both the ECJ and the Commission accepted it (There goes the key argument of taking back the control).

    Since 2016 even drivers of trucks passing through German Autobahns have to be paid the German minimum wage while in Germany. Not only that but the compulsory resting time of truck drivers must be in a hotel everywhere on the continent (i.e. It cannot be in the truck), and must be paid by the employer (in Britain a hell of a lot of lorry drivers sleep in their lorries near the warehouse to meet the delivery targets, otherwise their job is risk, but not by those Romanians).

    Actually, Brown’s posted worker xenophobic attempt is one of the reasons for the misinformation (they were Portuguese not even Romanians…)

  39. On minorities and the referendum

    It is not a valid sample, but I have seen many (in access of 30) videos on the day after the Leave vote in which Commonwealth employees of the NHS rejoiced of the Leave vote and taunted EU NHS workers.

    The reality is always simple and complicated at the same time.

  40. It seems Professor Curtice was right when after the local elections he said ‘The Conservatives have to deliver the Brexit the Leave voters voted for.’

  41. Thanks to those who have posted information about UKIP becoming more right wing. I expect most of you know that I am a UKIP member and I can say that nothing I have received from the party under the new leadership has indicated any change in policy whatsoever. As I am probably a bit better informed about the party than most non-member UKIP voters, I can’t see that anything that I have seen will influence the UKIP voter base at all.

    It’s quite simple really, if the Tories betray the 52%, UKIP will improve in the polls. The last poll showed that very dramatically, and I haven’t seen anyone saying that it’s just an outlier.

    Don’t get me wrong, I would not like to see a UKIP government at the next election because they simply do not have enough candidates of even the very low quality that it seems is required to be an MP. However, like the Greens, they can influence the major parties. The major parties all now have green policies of one sort or another, which didn’t used to be the case. If UKIP poll well enough they can influence the other parties, perhaps the Tories in particular, to amend their policies.

  42. Excellent news that our latest disgraced Tory MP is “deeply ashamed” of being caught [or “my behaviour” as he preferred to phrase it].

    Also, as is de rigeur, he will seek “professional help”. Presumably this will be from somebody fully qualified to explain why his behaviour seems to be widely – and bizarrely – regarded by society at large as both unacceptable, and a bit weird for a grown-up.

  43. The latest polling news, that some Tory voters are so cross that they are pretending that they will no longer vote Tory, was met by the politically knowledgeable Rosie with a bored yawn and a request to tickle her tummy.

  44. Pete B,
    “This is certainly an idiosyncratic view. Who exactly would then represent the 52% majority who voted for Brexit?”

    No one. Because 52% did not vote for Brexit. About 1/3 did, and presumably that figure would now be less what with right/wrong to leave having shifted towards remain.

    I find it very disturbing recently hearing about not daring to disappoint the huge numbers who voted leave, when far more did not support leaving.

    In order to win an election you generally only need about 1/3 of voters. If about 1/3 are hard core leavers, that leaves plenty to form a remain government.

    If neither main party is interested in the leave vote – then they leave leave for UKIP. The tories only supported the referendum in order to defeat UKIP, but having bluffed and lost, they have little choice but to admit their real views on Brexit. Not without trying every possible alternative first, of course.

    The aim of the game right now is to prove to everyone that Brexit is unthinkable and therefore convert as many as possible to remain.

    The only convincing strategy for the tories is to become more remainish than labour. In order to do that, they first have to pin labour to some sort of Brexit position, and then themselves move to a more remainish one.

    ironically, if hard leavers believe soft brexit is in fact worse than remain, then this group might be easier to convert to remain than those who were always soft brexiteers. But I think everyone is counting on voters slowly switching to remain, and thus all the stalling and endless rehearsing of options only to dismiss them as unworkable.

    The art of politics is all about getting voters to agree to what you want. This is just a more difficult challenge than most.

  45. Assuming that we do manage to stay in, I wonder if anyone will be able to calculate how many billions this whole, ghastly mess will have cost us – starting with the expense of the referendum itself.

  46. The first cost I would like you all to put a price on is the loss of our, the UK’s, democracy.

  47. Darvwel,

    Here’s the Wiki list, but you can omit the Chinese & Russian ones, so other than Boeing there is little choice. Hawkeye is carrier capable and US made and the Gulfstream used by Israel is also American.

    Oh and Boeing now effectively own Embraer.

    That more or less just leaves Saab from the EU.

    Having said that given Trumps behaviour Airbus could offer and develop an A320 Neo LR based AWAC’s for EU partners.

    Peter.

  48. “BILL
    The first cost I would like you all to put a price on is the loss of our, the UK’s, democracy.”

    Brilliant!

    You go first though – I don’t know what you mean.

  49. “The first cost I would like you all to put a price on is the loss of our, the UK’s, democracy.”

    That is the end game of the EU process. The middle class allegedly educated elite have swallowed the globalist agenda completely, and have spent the last forty years writing ‘pal reviewed’ academic papers convincing themselves that a technocratic aristocracy is far better than a universal democracy. Just leave it to the Very Clever People and/or The Market.

    The UK had a very simple system. You get an elected dictatorship for five years that could change anything under the protecting principle that no parliament can bind a successor (which means you can change anything back if the representatives get it wrong).

    Under the Napoleonic EU system we cannot eliminate the bad deal of the PFI contracts. Under the UK parliamentary system we can just summarily cancel them if parliament agrees they are that bad.

    Brexit is a philosophical battle for whether democracy means anything any more, or whether we may as well not bother refurbishing the Palace of Westminster and just mothball the whole lot as meaningless.

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