YouGov have a new poll in the Times tonight conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, after the resignations of David Davis and Boris Johnson. It suggests public opinon is breaking against the Chequers Brexit deal, and that public confidence in the government’s handling of Brexit is falling ever further.

Only 13% of people now think the Chequers Brexit deal would be good for Britain (down 1 since the pre-resignation poll at the weekend), 42% think it would not (up 9). 23% think it respects the referendum deal (down 4), 39% think it does not (up 10). Just 13% of people now think that the governemnt are handling the Brexit negotiations well, down from 18% at the weekend.

On voting intention, Labour have reopened a small lead, the first from YouGov since March. Topline figures have the Tories on 37% (down 2), Labour unchanged on 39%. The changes themselves are within the normal margin of error, but coming on top of the YouGov and Survation polls conducted at the the weekend which both showed a drop in the Conservative lead, it doesn’t look positive for them (though that said, an ICM poll earlier today, conducted between Friday and Monday, did not suggest any movement). As ever, it is worth waiting for other post-resignation polls to see if it turns out to be a consistent pattern, or just noise.


451 Responses to “YouGov poll shows opinion turning against Chequers Brexit deal”

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  1. “Only 13% of people now think the Chequers Brexit deal would be good for Britain”
    ……

    Aye and almost all of that 13% post on UKPR.

    Moving on.. No pun intended but momentum appears to be with ol Corby. Now is the time!

  2. I would warn colleagues at UKPR that this is only one poll and that the Prime Minister has not had much time to explain Chequers.

  3. I would warn colleagues at UKPR that this is only one poll and that the Prime Minister has not had much time to explain Chequers.

  4. Would explaining it make it more or less palatable to leave voters?

  5. The first in a while by You Gov, let’s be clear.

  6. Mrs May should make a national broadcast I think.

  7. Doesn’t she have to make it clear to herself first!

    Peter.

  8. @Danny

    “Tories are relying on it being in labour’s interest to demand remain, and therefore get them off the hook of doing so themselves.”

    You think? All Labour want is a General Election double quick!

  9. I’m surprised that so many people on UKPR appear to “know” what stance the UK political parties will take on anything – especially on anything Brexit related.

    Personally, I haven’t a clue as to how they will decide on anything, except that it will be in the interest of saving their own disreputable careers.

  10. Just arrived back from watching the England v Croatia game at a communal gathering in a nearby village. The local community had rigged up a marquee and some TV screens on the village green adjacent to the pub and a crowd of about 300 had gathered to watch the match. Refreshments provided by the pub and the TV screens by an intrepid villager. Wonderful, life-affirming occasion where people of all ages, genders, races, religions and social classes got together and watched the game unfold. Kids too young to concentrate on the match in full were playing little impromptu games of football on the green while the rest of us got quietly sozzled in the balmy summer evening, nerves gradually shredding as the game took its course. The cheers for Trippier’s opening goal may well have been the loudest thing heard in the village since some German bombers dropped a few bombs at nearby Coughton Court whilst returning from a massive air raid on Birmingham circa 1941!

    I left my car at the pub to collect tomorrow morning and walked the 3 miles back home after the game. I’d hoped it would be a giddy triumphant victory tour that meandered via a few local pubs on its way, but it wasn’t to be. The fading light of the day, the residual warmth of the evening and the winding country lanes were my only companions on my solitary walk home. However, there was a little afterglow that accompanied me too. The pleasure of a shared experience, the brief friendships forged with strangers, the company of good friends and the excitement of a sporting contest.

    It is at times like that when it feels good to be alive. A toast therefore to this World Cup, this England football team and the great game of football.

  11. really cant see Theresa May explaining her deal to the nation will win anyone over. She does not do calm and confident and authoritative – she’s all head bobby, “let me be clear”, gurning awkwardness.

  12. @Reggieside

    I don’t disagree, but she’s the only person holding the two factions of the Tory part. A bit of an impossible task as the chasm opens beneath her.

    If the EU reject her deal, she will be heading into that chasm.

  13. BBC reporting on UVF violence tonight.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44797991

    What seems strange is that there is no mention of politicians – especially DUP and TUV – condemning the violence, as would be expected in the (unlikely) circumstance of such civil disorder in GB, where politicians would normally be asked to comment.

  14. CB11

    “It is at times like that when it feels good to be alive. A toast therefore to this World Cup, this England football team and the great game of football.”

    That’s how things should be, but sadly it often isn’t. Lincolnshire Police and other English forces reporting an immediate rise in domestic violence reports at the end of the game.

    999 calls currently coming in 1 a minute. All alcohol related, Officers deployed

    National Centre for Domestic Violence says domestic violence increases by 26% when England play, 38% when England lose.

    As in every other country, there are a significant number of aggressive violent men in England who beat up their partners because their team has lost.

  15. You lot sobered up yet?????

    Peter.

  16. OLDNAT, I wouldn’t call them men.

  17. @Crossbat
    I was at The Left Against Brexit at Central Hall, Westminster. Short speeches by Catherine West MP, Billy Hayes, Ann Pettifor and Caroline Lucas (all good, esp CL) followed by questions.
    During the questions multiple TVs showed the start of the match with commentary muted and polite debate continued until about the fifth minute when a very cerebral question was interrupted by an enormous ROAR as a few hundred lefties decided what was really important last night!
    When it came to ET, there was no money to pay for the hall so I made my way home via the tube, with the Grauniad’s Minute-by-Minute updated regularly at those places where the district line surfaces. Probably a blessing in disguise.

  18. Last night I was depressed – combination of match, Brexit and the troubles of those I care about, In this low state I was much cheered by reading Crossbatt’s, possibly beer fuelled ramblings. As Old Nat says that is how things ought to be, and all one can do is strive to make things more that way Arguably UKPR is a good place to announce this laudable intention, albeit not one where it is easy to put it into effect.

  19. While I would have preferred England to get through last night, it’s only a game. What is football these days but 22 millionaires kicking a ball around a field. Nice work if you can get it.

    I mainly support Leeds Utd, so if I let pitch performance affect my state of mind, I would have been a terminal case long ago.

    I don’t find Brexit too depressing, as everything is pointing to a realistic agreement. The rather fanciful wishes of Boris and the ERG look more and more distant.

  20. Even harder than usual to comment on the poll which hasnt been published, so never mind MOE, cant even see the data.

    The question will be why there has been a change in support. I wholly guess that it will be disenchanted tories departing, since it is tories who have been making the news.

    It is pretty clear the public does not like the way negotiations have been handled, or their likely destination. 13% support for a government flagship policy must be getting close to a record low, surely?

    But…it might still be the brexit option the nation likes best. At 13% for.

  21. Danny

    “But…it might still be the brexit option the nation likes best. At 13% for.”

    Well, we know there are at least 48% who think remain is the best option!

  22. REGGIESIDE
    “she’s all head bobby, “let me be clear”, gurning awkwardness.”

    Living in a family with diagnoses of high achieving, versions of autism spectrum disorder, extending far and wide in all directions, and having now read what little exists on how asd manifests in women considered slightly odd since they were very young, I believe that this is how Mrs Dalek would be perceived were she ever allowed to be PM.

    A poorly guinea pig will pretend to be healthy until it no longer has any energy left to maintain the pretence, and under the same burden of societal demands to conform, women on the asd spectrum will generally learn very quickly to be exceptionally good actors, and remain so until their subconscious allows them to drop the acting, or they no longer have the energy to sustain the act. Most are well above average intelligence and tend to be high achievers if they don’t burn out, which is probably more common. Were such a lady to be in the public eye daily and under constant media scrutiny I cannot imagine the swan-like underwater paddling which would need to accompany trying not to exhibit the mannerisms described. Any such person would have my sympathy and empathy, regardless of how I regard their views or what they represent.

    I have heard that the largest group of people receiving asd diagnoses are women with children at school or older, since when they were at school female asd was not a thing. There is absolutely b***er all support, but at least it helps with understanding and coping, not least for partners, family and friends who are not on the spectrum.

  23. Oldnat – all the politicians in fact jointly condemned the disorder.

  24. @DANNY

    From previous thread

    Surely we joined the EU at just about the maximum point of union power, so I doubt the tories saw it as a way to capitalise on their demise?

    Actually we joined because DeGaulle was dead. He did not believe the UK had the same ideals as the rest of Europe. which is interesting

    Ted Heath is hated by the right wing of his party because he was a person that believed in the ideals that created the EEC . We have been arguing about ever closer union as it is in the original charter.

    Underestimated the importance to the UK of the EU, yes. Underestimated the stance and position of the EU, no.

    I keep saying this but every time I bring up the Swiss situation most leavers point out the UK is different, when you reread the leaked dinner and if you believe only half of it to be true it does not say our PM and our chief negotiator had not a clue about the reactions of the EU they seemed to be so unprepared as to be useless.

    Now you believe that i was a ruse to make us stay. I believe they really thought what they were saying was true. When May did her citizens of nowhere speech it was a point of UK dominance of having got its way. In that sense all the evidence points to them just noot understanding and indeed sometimes we have to accept people being stupid on occasion (read Cleggs book on the coalition and you suddenly realise he had not a clue what he had got himself into and then when he did he could not back out) This was UK’s Clegg moment.

    I agree the treat is hard to change and we have a veto but that is the point is it not we seemed powerful yes it was situational but we have been to put it politely pretty autistic when it comes to the EU

    We believed we would have the same power of veto outside the club as inside and that has proved to not be the case

    I don’t see the Tories splitting. I see that the culture of the party changing, I see the ‘moderates’ losing power because they don’t have membership support. It will be more subtle than Labour but you will end up in the same situation whereby the ‘moderates’ have no answers to the questions of the day and their only response will be they are just not electable.

    As to the Poll:

    I think it is early days( as I say you never as bad as your worst day and never as good as your best). I think there is still a lot of triangulating for May to do which is why I think the white paper may even be delayed. remember this is a discussion document it is not the end game. So there could be more problems to come for both May (and Corbyn).

    This is just another milestone in a series of milestones to look back on. I find it interesting that Brexit is defined by discontent at things so it seems rather appropriate that this discontent continues I fear that it is rather a state of mind in part rather than political goal per se. In which case we will be locked in a situation whereby we think it is all going horribly wrong but will carry on regardless. I think we are in that space at the moment and am not sure how we get out of it.

    As to England’s loss, I was born the day England won the world cup. I am still hopeful that I will be alive to see them lift it again I can.t cont being born at 3:30pm as watching the game ;-)

    On a personal level I played football against the likes Ian Wright and with Teddy Sherringham at Beaumont FC. weird days to be sure. So for many of us at the time play football was a real dream. As a basketball coach I feel we lack the on ball talent that is needed to take us over the top and I lament that this could be the best chance we had to at least get to the final. That said we have to understand there can be only one winner and lots of disappointed.

  25. @Crossbat11 – commiserations! Rarely last night, I watched almost an entire footie match, including the extra time. As a Scot, I was mercifully absolved from the nerve shredding tension, but was highly engrossed in what was, unexpectedly, a highly entertaining game.

    I don’t pretend to understand much about the tactical side of the game, but for my money England lost it in the first half. They were regularly shredding the Croatian defence outwide, but despite numerous great chances could only find the net once. A half time score of 3-0 would not have been an unreasonable reflection of the game, from where England would have held on. Those missed chances came back to haunt England as the Croations clearly did some reorganising at the interval, but it was a cracking effort from an England team thankfully devoid of the expectation and arrogance that has typified too many past world cup ventures.

    One tiny Scot’s critique of England’s whole world cup affair if I may: Every four years we hear the refrain of ‘England’s world cup heartache’. Sorry, but we can’t allow you to appropriate this – you really don’t know what world cup heartache feels like! Try being Scottish!

    I still tingle when I remember that Archie Gemmil goal from ’78. A loss to Peru, a draw with Iran, and we had to beat tournament favourites Holland by three clear goals to progress to the knockouts. 2-1 up and on 68 minutes Gemmil dances through the 18 yard area and scores (he literally did dance – the goal was later choreographed into a ballet).

    We had five minutes of hopeful euphoria until Holland scored again, but we still ended up beating the finalists 3-2 before coming home.

    That’s but one example of Scottish heartbreak. There are many more. Reaching a semi final doesn’t count!

  26. It seems that there is a tribe that will believe whatever Farage and the ERG tell them, whether they understand, or have thought things through or not. Surely such folk are being cynically exploited just as much as the rest who are of a more moderate persuasion are exploited by more mainstream sour as? In other words the burgeoning populism is just as much exploitation as what went before it.

  27. Now the football is over for England, I find this morning very depressing,

    The Chequers plan will leave us so close to the EU that it makes a mockery of leaving. Typical May fudge – Brexit in name only, How can such a deal possibly be in the national interest. We give up our place as a key player in the club, and then shackle ourselves to the club without any say in making the rules, Oh, what a great idea that is.

    Of course, there seems every possibility that the plan will be subjected to further concessions to the EU, as they say…. the four principles of the single market are indivisiblle.

    On top of that, she hasn’t much chance of getting it through Parliament.

    Let’s just call the whole thing off. The public were badly misled.

    Shambles,

  28. That’s 7 polls so far this month from 5 different polling companies. The average (having averaged the 3 YGs first) is

    Con 39.4
    Lab 38.7
    LD 9.4

    The lowest for 2018 for Con, and the 1st time they have been below 40. Also the highest of the year for LD. There is still almost 2/3 of the month to go yet for the monthly average but things do seem to be changing. with low figures for Con and Lab with no rise for LD, I presume UKIP are up a bit.

  29. @DANNY
    @TONYBTG

    It reminds of the Olympics funnily the best part of which was that people had the foresight to boo Osborne at the time. As if we knew who the bogeyman in the panto was

    It is not clear we know who or what the bogeyman is now

  30. @Tonybig – “How can such a deal possibly be in the national interest. We give up our place as a key player in the club, and then shackle ourselves to the club without any say in making the rules, Oh, what a great idea that is.

    Of course, there seems every possibility that the plan will be subjected to further concessions to the EU……….

    Let’s just call the whole thing off. The public were badly misled.”

    Sums up Brexit very nicely. My only quibble is that the public weren’t completely misled – many people explained this all to them, but they chose not to listen.

  31. Dominic Raab getting into contortions already. When asked about the ‘common rulebook’ and whether thi means we become a rule taker, he said –

    “…in terms of as those rules are formulated, or any changes to those rules – we’ve signed up to them so far through the normal democratic process – we’ll have deep and enhanced dialogue and consultation, so we’ll have a chance to influence it. And ultimately parliament has that lock. So it’s not right to say we’ll be a rule-taker in the sense that that’s normally used.”

    So the slogan is now ‘we’re not a rule taker in the sense that it’s normally used…”?

  32. Prof Howard

    Thanks for that info on the NI politicians.

    Still seems strange that BBC NI didn’t include their condemnation in that report.

  33. @ PTRP

    “As to England’s loss, I was born the day England won the world cup. I am still hopeful that I will be alive to see them lift it again I can.t cont being born at 3:30pm as watching the game ;-)”

    Similar, except that I was still in the womb at that point. But while I wasn’t born, I guess I was alive, certainly according to JRM.

    So was your dad watching the match or at the birth?

  34. @Trigguy – just as well his wife didn’t score a hatrick!

  35. Oldnat

    I think the five main parties even issued a joint statement of opposition to violence.

    This year there has been a police crack down on over-sized bonfires. Some of these bonfires had been organised by paramilitary groups. With political buy in from all parties the courts and police had intervened to reduce the bonfire size.

    Though there was violence, because the paamilitaries didn’t like this, the fact that the police now feel willing to enforce the law on this matter is a step forward. Some of those bonfires were a hazard to health and property and all main parties were on board with this.

    So while it may look bad on TV in fact I think what has happened in the bigger picture is good.

  36. @ Alec

    The game you mentioned was one of the most exciting I’ve ever seen- loved the unity of hands in the air to show they were not going for the ball from an offside position- not sure how much validity that had in the rules of the time but added to the drama!

    I don’t know what has happened to Scottish football- in the 1970’s there used to be a stream of exciting quality players coming through. With the attendances of the Premier League outside of Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen you’d have expected the teams on gates of 5,000 or less to be focused on producing home grown talent and would have got plenty of experience against the bigger teams.

    @ Oldnat

    You did sneak in “as with other countries” but the emphasis on England domestic violence was a bit unfair I think. Also the emphasis on football which is just the trigger for something likely to happen at some point anyway. But it is a big problem that is not so easy to solve although far more time and thought needs to go into solving it.

  37. YouGov tables are out:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/phvyn092lg/TimesResults_180711_VI_Brexit.pdf

    Haven’t had the time to look yet.

    So are we past peak May then?

  38. @alec

    “…in terms of as those rules are formulated, or any changes to those rules – we’ve signed up to them so far through the normal democratic process – we’ll have deep and enhanced dialogue and consultation, so we’ll have a chance to influence it. And ultimately parliament has that lock. So it’s not right to say we’ll be a rule-taker in the sense that that’s normally used.”

    So the slogan is now ‘we’re not a rule taker in the sense that it’s normally used…”?

    Oh my. Its pure “yes minister” isn’t it?

  39. Alec,

    This is what I mean by the sophistry of independence.

    Rather than rules agreed by the EU for their CU applying automatically to the UK, we will pass through the HOC (would possible end up being by ministerial order, subject to HOC library posting and challenge) so we decide the rules don’t take them.

    The reality is that it will be a take it or leave it and we will have o take in practice.

    Gove, Rabb etc can comfort themselves that theoretical independence exists and that in the future we will exercise that independence and chose not to have aligned customs arrangements for some goods; they might be right of course but I can see it.

    I am biased of course but this is why I think Labour’s being in A Customs Union approach is more honest, straightforward and clear.

  40. The ramblings of Raab C Nesbitt described by Alec reminded me of just how good satire can be. In particular, the new name suits perfectly for the purposes of satire

    https://www.youtube.com/embed/K3d55p2G_Ac

  41. @ Triguy

    Thanks for the tables- all eyes on UKIP and it was up to 6%. Needs to go a bit higher for May to get seriously worried but damaging enough at that level for the Tories if it is not just a knee jerk reaction.

  42. The logic of the Brexiteers has always been sound: what is the point of going through all this upheaval to end at BINO? I think this question will be asked more loudly, more often. perhaps the choices then will be no Brexit or no deal.

  43. @sam

    yep exactly this. whatever the deal is – it will be manifestly worse then what we already have. There is zero advantage in BINO. The only argument in favour is “this is the best we could come up with in response to the referendum result short of no deal”.

    Hard brexit or No brexit are the only rational choices.

  44. This Common Rulebook will never be accepted by hard Leavers or middle-of-the-road Leavers unless the default setting is changed.

    Currently it seems the default setting will be we accept new EU rules unless Parliament rejects them on a case by case basis.

    The default should be reversed – ie We DO NOT accept new EU rules on goods unless Parliament approves them on a case-by-case basis

  45. TriGuy,

    Peak may was when she announced the intention to hold a GE and for the few days following.

    Peak post GE May occurred imo in the month of May after Labour had a ‘difficult’ few months re Russia and anti-Semitism.

    Chequers and a probable move of some VI to UKIP/DK may produce a step change (fully or partially reversal or not we don’t know) but the move from a lead pushing 3% to one nearer 1% edging toward parity occurred over the last 6-7 weeks anyhow.

  46. Reggieside:

    “Hard brexit or No brexit are the only rational choices.”

    Yes, anything in between just either doesn’t make any sense at all or is not going to be accepted by the EU.

    @Alec:

    I mean misled in the sense that Brexiteers told us it would be easy and the EU would be falling over themselves to make a deal with us on our terms. Despite all the arguments to the contrary – 17.4million bought that argument,

  47. @Reggieside

    Hard brexit or No brexit are the only rational choices.

    I agree, but when did rationality come into this? My money’s still on BINO, which while not as good as remain is (IMO) the least damaging alternative.

  48. The logic seems to point to Sam’s suggested choice.

    Logic also says that as a fair number of Leavers won’t support a ‘no deal’ Brexit, it’s likely that going for such an option will be against the population’s wishes by a substantial margin.

    Not sure how any government could carry on down that road, especially if they know it’s sending the country onto the rocks.

    The only sensible thing to do then is validate their U turn by asking the voters their opinion.

    Trouble is it needs a commanding figurehead to sell such a change and I can’t see one anywhere around.

  49. BINO may be the least damaging option for the Tory party but it is an extremely damaging option for the country. We give up our seat at the decision making table and replace it with being at the mercy of the decision makers,

    We become a colony.

    Possibly the worst foreign policy mistake this country will ever make,

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