This week’s YouGov poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 42%(nc), LAB 40%(+1), LDEM 9%(nc). Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday and changes are from last week. The two point lead is a little lower than YouGov have been showing of late, but nothing outside normal sample variation.

On the other regular YouGov trackers, 44% of people think that Britain was wrong to vote for Brexit, 43% think it was right. Just 22% of people think that the government are doing well at negotiating Bret, 62% think they are doing badly (including a majority of both Leavers and Remainers). While the poll was taken after the government’s announcement of extra funding for the NHS, it has unsurprisingly has little impact on which party people trust more on the issue – 34% of people think Labour would handle the NHS better, 24% think the Conservatives would. Full tabs are here.

While it’s not a particularly new poll (the fieldwork was conducted the weekend before last) there was also a newly published BMG poll yesterday. Topline figures there were CON 38%(-1), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 11%(+1). Changes are since early May. This is the only poll since mid-April to have shown Labour ahead. Full tabs are here.

UPDATE: A third poll out tonight. Survation have topline figures of CON 41%(nc), LAB 38%(-2), LDEM 7%(-2). Fieldwork was Tuesday to Thursday and changes are from the start of the month. The poll has some more questions on Brexit – full details are here.


1,218 Responses to “Latest YouGov and BMG voting intentions”

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  1. @DANNY

    No, we are not. The fact politicians keep saying this is the case means that voters are not wedded to it, or they would not have to keep repeating it as their justification every time they do something they do not believe in.

    Politicians understand they are in a no win situation. They have promised to deliver what cannot be delivered. To turn about and refuse to do it is unacceptable, to try to do it and fail is unacceptable.
    When there is 60% of the electorate that wants a change every politician and his dog will go for it. There isn’t that number and because of this we are stuck in limbo even the electorate that believes marginally that Brexit is a bad idea don’t have enough balls to change their mind and have a second vote. I have said this is like Iraq whereby we will have a slow realisation of the situation but actually we are too late

    As I have said many times I am an arch remainer but I do not see a political way forward the way both the electorate thinks and how the parties are constructed
    It is a perfect storm of indecision no one want to break the cycle not the electorate, not the politicians and funnily enough not the EU.

    The EU is waiting for the UK to sort out this mess and I personally believe May is hoping that the EU rides to the rescue with some deal than she can sell. The problem is she is no Jedi and there is no mind track that make anything look like we are anything but stupid to have voted for this in the first place so we hang on. We’ll be happy with no deal because it saves face and people will just move on.

    The point is you did not vote for this, so I understand your frustration but look at the polls the smack of indecision a lack of consensus and I don’t see anything changing this what will happen is in 10 year when we look back it will the same as Iraq we will have arrived a destination no one ever wanted or dreamed of voting for but we will be there and there will be no turning back. Simply put people like yourself and myself just don’t get it as Blair would say and we don’t. What is sad is that like Iraq I hope I am wrong but at best Brexit is meh and the real problems that caused many of the people I spoke to on the doorstep in June 2years ago will still be there.

    The bottom line is we are asking politicians to make decisions that could push their party in the wilderness for a generation neither party will take that risk. The LD have nothing to lose. The SNP have a strong remain contingent The Tories albeit having the a strong leave component also has real problems with both Brexit and other policies and Labour has huge remain votes in the cities but in the ex industrial north the have a strong leave component no one is rocking the boat and if I was leader of either the Tories or Labour I think keeping my part intact after the e?doctorate gave me a hospital lassie going to be high on my priority list.

    Now is there a chance that the EU rescues May. I am not sure there is. The CoM has given Barnier a set of instructions and they have not changed them in order to change them they have to agree what the changes are the UK cannot live with Norway/EEA nor will it be happy with Canada so we’ll keep hoping for something special untiltime runs out.

  2. @JONESINBANGOR

    If may wanted the EEA why does she have the red lines that preclude it?
    Her intake had she won would have been more strongly anti EEA if I remember correctly since she was going to have a majority of at least 40.

    Lastly itnmaes no sense to be a rule taker and then be talking about sovereignty and the EEA means special status for NI and border at the Irish Sea. How does the conservative and unionist party pick the bones out of that one.

    You might as well have voted to remain smh

  3. Note to friends: adopting the Norway option does not imply Norwegian living standards, alas.

  4. jonesinbangor: The electorate want the Norway option. I voted for Brexit and I want the Norway option.

    Speak for yourself. You can’t speak for the electorate because the Norway option was not on the ballot paper.

  5. Why do politicians keep on inventing these red lines and slogans that make a deal impossible? The electorate or large portions of it want Brexit, Do they care about the ECJ or freedom to make trade deals with tiny countries? I suspect not As for me, before recent events I confused the ECJ with the ECHR. Do the electorate want to be rule takers, Obviously not, who would? But then again do they care who makes rules on plugs or bananas or whatever, I suspect not. Surely life is too short for that,

  6. [email protected]: This is why I support a really radical change.

    Our institutions are simply incapable of serious reform IMHO, and won’t ‘evolve’ into something better.

    I think we need a hard-core and destructive collapse of the system before reform will come.

    (This is partially why I voted Leave, and certainly support Scottish independence etc. I call it creative destruction).

    I have sort of known from years before the referendum that there is a real issue with the way our politics works, but it is only recently that I have been able to verbalize this as brexit being a symptom rather than the disease.

    I suppose you have one of the few reasons for voting leave with which I can have a little sympathy. I do want Scottish Independence, because I don’t want to be in a nasty fascist UK, but out of all of this I fear an even nastier fascist England may arise.

  7. TW: You can’t export from China to China – they wouldn’t be called exports if that was the case would they! Slow… slap… of… face

    Childish or what?

    JLR sold 150,100 cars in China last year, of which 87,774 were built locally by the JV, leaving 62,326 UK-sourced. That will decline further as the JV production continues to ramp up rapidly.

  8. Jonesinbangor,
    “Wrong. She held an election to try and isolate the ERG. That failed. ”

    If May had had a clear win on what was in the tory manifesto, hard brexit, then that is precisely what she would have carried out. Can you imagine hard brexiteers backing down if the nation had just endorsed that policy? I cant.

    Its logically absurd to argue that if the nations had endorsed the kind of Brexit they were proposing, then the tories would have deliberately chosen to do something different.

    It has a problem now because the voters failed to support the governments chosen way forward.

  9. Passtherockplease.
    ” We’ll be happy with no deal because it saves face and people will just move on.”

    No. It has always been an option for the government to just get on with Brexit and move on to other issues. The fact this is not what the government has done means they believe the nation would not move on. The nation would move on if the net result of brexit was even neutral. The government clearly believes the impact of hard brexit would be so bad that voters would turn against them.

    “when we look back it will the same as Iraq we will have arrived a destination no one ever wanted or dreamed of voting for but we will be there and there will be no turning back.”

    No again. The situation in Iraq will eventually unwind to what it would have been without an invasion. Similarly, the Uk will eventually unwind back to EU membership. My prediction of what will happen is that the current UK membership is already a compromise between what pro and anti EU politicians want. This compromise will dissolve as pro EU people come back into the ascendant, and the UK will rejoin in a wholehearted way, without the opt outs it has now, abandoning the UK rebate, ditching the pound, and so forth. If leavers want to avoid that, they need to U turn right now.

  10. danny: My prediction of what will happen is that the current UK membership is already a compromise between what pro and anti EU politicians want. This compromise will dissolve as pro EU people come back into the ascendant, and the UK will rejoin in a wholehearted way, without the opt outs it has now, abandoning the UK rebate, ditching the pound, and so forth. If leavers want to avoid that, they need to U turn right now.

    I would agree. But then by the time this happens there might not be a UK.

  11. technicolouroctober,
    ” by the time this happens there might not be a UK.”

    While you might be right, is that a case of apocalyptical oneupmanship? (made me laugh)

    It would follow that if the English economy suffers from brexit, then its ability to keep onboard any of the other nations will diminish. It was part of the remain case in the scottish referendum, that Scotland should vote to remain in the UK in order to ensure staying part of the EU.

    The tories right now are tearing up the settlement which had been reached with Scotland. (never mind the more serious tearing up of the de facto reunification of Ireland which had taken place)

  12. @Danny

    “This compromise will dissolve as pro EU people come back into the ascendant, and the UK will rejoin in a wholehearted way, without the opt outs it has now, abandoning the UK rebate, ditching the pound, and so forth. If leavers want to avoid that, they need to U turn right now.”

    Danny,

    Full rejoining is an option that NI and Scotland will probably be pursuing more rapidly than many anticipate.

    Wales? A country of volatile politics may decide to follow.

    England? Glorious England? Give up the pound?

  13. Do I detect a rather more remainish audience on question time these days?

  14. Danny,

    Two comments.

    Do you recognise that your position is a minority view?

    What do you believe has been the direction of travel in terms of support for the EU’s stated objective of ever closer union in the past three decades?
    (a) within Commission; (b) across Europe; (c) within U.K.?

    In my view, there was a turning point in support around 1990-92, but the tipping point did not come until around 2012-15. Difficult to say precisely when we moved from a position of “if” to “when”, but shift we did.

    Paul H-J

  15. We often hear comments about Cameron’s mishandling of the referendum.

    One criticism from EU-philes (as distinct from europhiles since Europe and the EU are quite different things) was that holding a referendum put UK’s membership at risk unnecessarily.

    Perhaps history will be kinder to Cameron if one considers that what he may have been trying to do was consolidate the U.K. within the EU before it became too late. His misjudgement – or rather miscalculation – was either over timing of the tipping point or his ability to turn it around in a referendum campaign. Perhaps both.

    What Cameron could not be accused of is not having supported the EU to the hilt.

  16. BBC This Week. Andrew Neil said several times that the polls show the Conservatives 5 points ahead of Labour.

    By-election result tonight:

    Britain Elects
    ? @britainelects

    Curborough (Lichfield) result:

    LAB: 60.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 33.0% (-8.4)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-25.4) as prev.

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

  17. That’s an odd result, Norbold. Are there local factors?

  18. MikeP
    Why odd? Looks like the UKIP voters were all red and have come home.

  19. Of course there are local factors, Nick P. Unless you think Labour is actually about 30 points ahead of the Tories right across the country. Doesn’t stop it being an excellent result for Labour of course – and well done to those people who knocked on doors etc – but it means very little in the wider country.

    Still dubious for Andrew Neil to talk about “the polls” showing Tories five points ahead when it’s just one poll.

  20. All the locals make for interesting reading. Two bad Con loses and one Con hold but with a big drop. Impossible to draw conclusions, they are meaningless really. But it’s difficult not to get the impression that there are few people out there who now regard these local elections as a harmless way to give the Cons a bit of a kicking. Doesn’t mean it would happen in a GE, but it’s perhaps a sign of general dissatisfaction, and they can’t deflect the kicking onto the LibDems any more.

  21. I don’t know Nickp, I don’t know the area, but as RJW says it looks more or less like Labour picked up all the former UKIP votes, which is interesting in itself, though the Conservatives also lost 8.4% as well as not picking up UKIP votes.

    What was even worse last night was that Rachel Reeves accepted Neil’s “5% lead” as an implied criticism of Corbyn’s leadership. She did not correct him or defend the leadership.

  22. @DANNY

    No. It has always been an option for the government to just get on with Brexit and move on to other issues. The fact this is not what the government has done means they believe the nation would not move on. The nation would move on if the net result of brexit was even neutral. The government clearly believes the impact of hard brexit would be so bad that voters would turn against them.

    In all fairness the problem has been that what was promised and what believe was undeliverable. As I pointed out the real problem is then electorate. You need enough votes to win power. Where I agree with you is that if you read the Tory manifesto (and Labours for that matter) every red line said no deal. Indeed it was the one thing that both THE OTHER HOWARD and myself agreed on.

    May believed two things:
    1. Corbyn was such a liability that Labour would tear itself apart trying to get rid of him

    2. People trusted only her to deliver brexit

    The reality was that I don’t think anyone understood what the implications of the red lines were. The leaked meeting between Junker Barnier May and Davis pretty much said as much. Hell Davis’s tweet where he talked about going to Berlin to get a trade deal was straight Trumpian before Trump was a thing this was essentially a miscalculation by all sides here in the UK.

    No again. The situation in Iraq will eventually unwind to what it would have been without an invasion. Similarly, the Uk will eventually unwind back to EU membership. My prediction of what will happen is that the current UK membership is already a compromise between what pro and anti EU politicians want. This compromise will dissolve as pro EU people come back into the ascendant, and the UK will rejoin in a wholehearted way, without the opt outs it has now, abandoning the UK rebate, ditching the pound, and so forth. If leavers want to avoid that, they need to U turn right now.

    Wow, Iraq at this moment is shia state with a Kurdish rump and a Sunni set of enclaves. People used to live side by side in Iraq sunni married shia. Whatever one thinks of Saddam the situation that exists now was not inevitable and yes in the long run we’re all dead. In Afghanistan there were more female university students than males in Kabul university now there is not and again it is our ‘help’ that shaped this

    Back to the UK, I am not sure that the UK goes back to EU in the manner that you think I believe we are pretty semi detached rather ignorant as to how thing work. As I said if our PM and person negotiating on our behalf have no clue then clearly we are expecting the electorate to be better informed and better prepared? The whole experience in my view has left the UK divided basically between social liberals and social conservatives. In the main social liberalism may win out but in fairness as we’ve seen in the US that is not a forgone conclusion.

    Of the remainers I believe there is not a true understanding of the EU and thus in one sense the view that it is a practical method of gaining advantage in terms of trade is actually foremost in peoples mind I don’t think the details matter and therefore I believe that when push comes to shove being in or out of the EU will fade after a period of being out it will be the new normal.

    Just as shias marrying sunnis was a normal until it was not, Being in the EU will be normal until it is not. In the Long term if you think that shias will be marrying Sunni’s then Iraq path looks very strange to me if you think that there is shi/sunni conflict to come then we’re on the right trajectory. Do I believe we are heading back to the EU? No by the time the electorate decides things would have moved on, the world would be different and the challenges will be different and outside the EU we would have had to deal with them differently.

  23. @DANNY

    No. It has always been an option for the government to just get on with Brexit and move on to other issues. The fact this is not what the government has done means they believe the nation would not move on. The nation would move on if the net result of brexit was even neutral. The government clearly believes the impact of hard brexit would be so bad that voters would turn against them.

    In all fairness the problem has been that what was promised and what believe was undeliverable. As I pointed out the real problem is then electorate. You need enough votes to win power. Where I agree with you is that if you read the Tory manifesto (and Labours for that matter) every red line said no deal. Indeed it was the one thing that both THE OTHER HOWARD and myself agreed on.

    May believed two things:
    1. Corbyn was such a liability that Labour would tear itself apart trying to get rid of him

    2. People trusted only her to deliver brexit

    The reality was that I don’t think anyone understood what the implications of the red lines were. The leaked meeting between Junker Barnier May and Davis pretty much said as much. Hell Davis’s tweet where he talked about going to Berlin to get a trade deal was straight Trumpian before Trump was a thing this was essentially a miscalculation by all sides here in the UK.

    No again. The situation in Iraq will eventually unwind to what it would have been without an invasion. Similarly, the Uk will eventually unwind back to EU membership. My prediction of what will happen is that the current UK membership is already a compromise between what pro and anti EU politicians want. This compromise will dissolve as pro EU people come back into the ascendant, and the UK will rejoin in a wholehearted way, without the opt outs it has now, abandoning the UK rebate, ditching the pound, and so forth. If leavers want to avoid that, they need to U turn right now.

    Wow, Iraq at this moment is shia state with a Kurdish rump and a Sunni set of enclaves. People used to live side by side in Iraq sunni married shia. Whatever one thinks of Saddam the situation that exists now was not inevitable and yes in the long run we’re all dead. In Afghanistan there were more female university students than males in Kabul university now there is not and again it is our ‘help’ that shaped this

    Back to the UK, I am not sure that the UK goes back to EU in the manner that you think I believe we are pretty semi detached rather ignorant as to how thing work. As I said if our PM and person negotiating on our behalf have no clue then clearly we are expecting the electorate to be better informed and better prepared? The whole experience in my view has left the UK divided basically between social liberals and social conservatives. In the main social liberalism may win out but in fairness as we’ve seen in the US that is not a forgone conclusion.

    Of the remainers I believe there is not a true understanding of the EU and thus in one sense the view that it is a practical method of gaining advantage in terms of trade is actually foremost in peoples mind I don’t think the details matter and therefore I believe that when push comes to shove being in or out of the EU will fade after a period of being out it will be the new normal.

    Just as shias marrying sunnis was a normal until it was not, Being in the EU will be normal until it is not. In the Long term if you think that shias will be marrying Sunni’s then Iraq path looks very strange to me if you think that there is shi/sunni conflict to come then we’re on the right trajectory. Do I believe we are heading back to the EU? No by the time the electorate decides things would have moved on, the world would be different and the challenges will be different and outside the EU we would have had to deal with them differently.

  24. Paul H-J,
    “Do you recognise that your position is a minority view?”

    Which position?

    “What do you believe has been the direction of travel in terms of support for the EU’s stated objective of ever closer union in the past three decades?”

    My position on EU integration? I’d say over 30 years, europe has chosen to integrate more. If you just take the last 10 then arguably that situation has reversed somewhat and become more ambivalent. I dont know how people feel on the continent, but what info gets back, such as here, suggests most member states are far more committed to EU integration than is the UK. Even people like the greeks, who have seen some of the downsides of membership still strongly think the pluses outweigh the minuses, and even seek closer integration. Perhaps because they feel closer integration, more redistribution, might benefit them. Whereas the Uk maybe fears it would be a net contributor.

    “In my view, there was a turning point in support around 1990-92,”

    In my view there was a turning point around 2008, when the world recession -caused by US banks – led everyone to question the economic orthodoxy and look for scapegoats. Those so inclined have sought to lay the blame for this upon the EU. It engendered a background dissatisfaction that things were going badly which was used to attack the EU, despite it not being anything the EU caused or had much to do with except in clearing up the mess.

    No 2008 crash and there would have been no Brexit. We are proposing to leave the EU because of the way the US regulates it banks?????

    “Perhaps history will be kinder to Cameron if one considers that what he may have been trying to do was consolidate the U.K. within the EU before it became too late.”

    No. What Cameron sought to do was crush UKIP, as he had crushed the libs. Both had been political threats to the tory party as representative of the right. He sought to get rid of UKIP by giving them what they wanted. Granted, he expected the nation to reject Brexit, but I dont believe he held the referendum to guarantee we stayed in the EU. He rather took that as a given and tried to use it against UKIP.

    It did work to crush UKIP, but the legacy for the tories has been to put them in a worse place than losing some MPs to UKIP.

    Or maybe not. Had Cameron not done what he did, what would have happened? UKIP would have grown. Probably not got many MPs, but drawn off more tory than labour votes. Result, labour government. No main parties interested in leaving EU, so UKIP would continue splitting the mainly right vote indefinitely. Forseeable long run of labour governments. So maybe the tories do think their current mess will at least bring UKIP/Brexit to an end faster than had they opposed UKIP directly and taken a europhile position.

    The tory party exists to be in government, not to either be in or out of the EU. So its really about the best route to get that.

    However, they did not think through the actual difficulties of leaving the EU, and that it might be so difficult it could destroy a party which tried to implement it. Which is where they are now.

  25. On local factors in by-elections, in 13 days there is a by-election for a Northants cc member. The last couple of district by-elections in the county that I have noticed have had the Tory squeaking a win against a challenger from a party which hadn’t even bothered to stand last time around.

    It’s a Labour seat in a town which generates very few, which surprised me as the area is pretty leafy and on balance a mix of older people and largely middle class families. The nearest library was one marked for closure and the bin contractors were changed a few weeks ago. The same contract covers cutting the grass verges, which in many places are now tall enough to lose a medium sized child. The contract is with the borough, but I doubt many will make that distinction.

    Given the council isn’t going to exist for much longer I doubt whether much money or effort is being put into it. I would be surprised if it were to change hands, but it will be interesting to see how the Tory vote holds up.

  26. Chris Lane,

    Agree likely next GE 2022 but if so Corbyn will have stepped down imo and probably May; Also Cable of course and Sturgeon may have had enough by them so we could have a clean slate of leaders.

  27. Norbold,
    “BBC This Week. Andrew Neil said several times that the polls show the Conservatives 5 points ahead of Labour.”

    Yes, i saw that and wondered why he did it. I thought that his guests were poorly placed to argue. The tory was hardly likely to object. The labour official position is that they support Brexit, so could hardly jump up and say, ‘all we need to do is strike a remainish position and the voters will flood back like last time.’

    He might have been trying to be provocative. They wouldnt bite.

    Norbold,
    yes, last time labour tried to shoot itself by attacking Corbyn, but it didnt work out. They are still not reconciled to him being popular. (cf, Trump winning despite polling as enormously unpopular. ‘popular’ is maybe not measuring quite the right thing since people disliked him but still voted him in. Partly probably a marmite thing, and it doesnt matter if your opponents who would never have voted for you detest you. Partly they might not like him, but best of a bad bunch. )

  28. Jimjam: incidentally we’re getting a clean slate of leaders in Wales right now, which no-one outside the principality seems to have paid any attention to.

    Does anyone have any inside info on who the next First Minister might be?

  29. PT,

    I am aware of that and the English Greens getting a new leadership too.

    Only Arlene Foster of parties with MPs could be leader in to the next GE who led in 2017. Even then the Renewable Heat thingy might get her in the end?

  30. @polltroll; the current favourite for next Welsh Labour leader is Mark Drakeford the Finance Minister although if this week’s poll (3% swing from
    Lab to PC) was reflected in a uniform swing he’d lose his seat…..

  31. In Andrew Neil’s defence, he generally reaches for the Yougov number whenever he mentions ‘the polls’.

  32. David Colby

    “In Andrew Neil’s defence, he generally reaches for the Yougov number whenever he mentions ‘the polls’.”

    Is that a defence, or just an admission he is too lazy to do his job properly and undertake a bit of research?

  33. I don’t know, but Andrew Neil does not strike me as lazy.

    Perhaps he has chosen to refer to one reputable polling company’s numbers as a way to track changes and the direction of travel. He did call it as ‘neck and neck’ a while back when Yougovs numbers were level pegging.

  34. Crunch cabinet meeting over brexit (again).

    Headline story is whether if ministers resign they will have to walk home because their ministerial cars will be confiscated. Oh what children.

  35. Interesting article by Andrew Tickell, a Scottish legal academic, about Scoyish devolution and Brexit, the upcoming Supreme Court case on Holyrood’s Continuity Bill and how trade deals give Westminster the power to strike down any Holyrood legislation by Ministerial directive:

    http://thenational.scot/comment/columnists/16336697.what-next-if-the-scottish-government-wins-brexit-bill-court-battle-nothing-good/

  36. Brillo reasonably will rely on a junior production team member for that who probably just looked at the most recent poll which became ‘polls’ He is usually fair with thse things.

    In any event, 5%, 2% or neck and neck matters little if the desired narrative is that Labour should be way ahead by now etc etc.

  37. Normally I wouldn’t comment on by election results but seems it’s been mentioned.
    Anybody attempting to read anything into these or any other by election should I think stop looking at the impressive percentage gains by any particular party and instead concentrate on the levels of apathy shown by the electorate.
    For instance in the one mentioned today in the Curborough ward Lichfield.
    District council turnout 15.6% winning council Labour with total 309 votes.
    Same councillor won City council seat turnout 15.5% with a total of 323 votes.
    Overall another pathetic local election turnout which shows nothing of value other than how little people think about local politics no matter what party wins.

  38. @ Turk

    Sadly true. It’s not just local elections though, you can say similar things about the Lewisham East parliamentary by-election in terms of turn-out, and again, as was said at the time, people shouldn’t over-interpret the result there either.

  39. @Norbold

    As you have probably detected from my posts, I’m deeply sceptical about both the accuracy, and more importantly, the salience of current political opinion polling, such is the current distorting effect of the all embracing Brexit, but I’ve always accepted that, sadly, these largely academic polls do have the potential to be be misused to help biased and partial journalists set a narrative. Neil was at his classic best in this respect last night, cherry-picking one potentially rogue and out of kilter YouGov poll to ask Kendall why “Labour was 5% behind in the polls.” No context given, just a blanket “in the polls” description. Of course Kendall, in her usual feeble and ineffectual way, went along with it and at no stage challenged the accuracy of Neil’s question. Her reply was pitiful and allowed Neil to cut to the next item with a “well, we all know the real reasons but we haven’t got the time to discuss them all now.” The real reasons? What can he mean?

    By the way, now Dimbleby is finally hanging his boots up, when are the BBC going to shuffle the utterly execrable Neil off into the long grass too, allowing him to spend more time with his right wing think tanks and the Spectator?

    Remember, we’re all paying this buffoon’s wages.

  40. POLLTROLL

    we’re getting a clean slate of leaders in Wales right now, which no-one outside the principality seems to have paid any attention to.

    Does anyone have any inside info on who the next First Minister might be?

    Even better than that, we have polling. As usual Roger Scully is the man with the details:

    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2018/07/03/who-leads-who-knows-who-cares/

    though as the heading suggests I wouldn’t let the excitement run away with you. It’s also worth reading his two previous blog posts on the leadership contests in general and on the overall results of the YouGov WPB which happened to be timed conveniently to include the leadership questions. The tables for that are here:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/htfwdi02df/WelshBarometer_June18_w.pdf

    (leadership from p12)

    There’s also a lot of uncertainty over how the Labour election will take place, both in terms of nomination and voting. Goven the reasonable time before an election, I can see the UK NEC intervening to insist on something similar to that used to elect Corbyn rather than the old electoral colleges still currently in place in Wales. They might also want to reduce the requirement for 5 AMs to nominate.

  41. @Roger Mexico

    So the general conclusion is that even party members don’t know/care so little about the candidates they have no idea.

  42. @ Roger Mexico

    “There’s also a lot of uncertainty over how the Labour election will take place, both in terms of nomination and voting. Goven the reasonable time before an election, I can see the UK NEC intervening to insist on something similar to that used to elect Corbyn rather than the old electoral colleges still currently in place in Wales. They might also want to reduce the requirement for 5 AMs to nominate.”

    I am not sure under the constitution that the NEC has such powers as the decisions on these matters are taken by the Wales Labour Conference, I might be wrong but I would have thought it would take a motion at the UK Labour Conference to superseded that: I think the NEC’s power to intervene in constituencies does not extend to interfering with the Welsh or Scottish Labour Parties’ constitutional arrangements.

  43. It’s party supporters rather than members – I would expect the members to know more and be more opinionated. But it’s early in the process at the moment (especially for Labour) so many people will be ‘wait and see’.

  44. @hireton: “…trade deals give Westminster the power to strike down any Holyrood legislation by Ministerial directive”

    Trade deals can be very dangerous to a country that does not have a veto.

    Remarkably Remainers seem thoroughly indifferent to the EU being able to impose the burden of its trade deals on the U.K.

    Anyway. Not going to happen. As soon as May gives more compromises, the EU rejects them, May discards red lines, and EU’s hinted compromises don’t actually exist… it will all collapse.

  45. @hireton: “…trade deals give Westminster the power to strike down any Holyrood legislation by Ministerial directive”

    Trade deals can be very dangerous to a country that does not have a veto.

    Remarkably Remainers seem thoroughly indifferent to the EU being able to impose the burden of its trade deals on the U.K.

    Anyway. Not going to happen. As soon as May gives more compromises, the EU rejects them, May discards red lines, and EU’s hinted compromises don’t actually exist… it will all collapse.

  46. @Joseph1832 – “Remarkably Remainers seem thoroughly indifferent to the EU being able to impose the burden of its trade deals on the U.K. ”

    No really, I suspect.

    Trade deals can only be decided by the Commission if they are strictly limited to trade, which is a Commission competence. Most deals now cover other areas, like regulation, finance etc, meaning that national vetos come into play. This is what happened with the Canadian deal, which is worth remembering. The only trade deals that could be imposed by the EU are likely to be relatively unimportant and uncontroversial deals.

  47. “Trade deals can be very dangerous to a country that does not have a veto.

    Remarkably Remainers seem thoroughly indifferent to the EU being able to impose the burden of its trade deals on the U.K.”

    Are they? It would seem likely that the ones calling for a further referendum are fairly attached to the UK’s veto and influence in such matters.

  48. @ SJ – thank you for confirming JLR UK export a lot of cars to China. You’ll never convince DANNY though ;)

    The childish thing is the current replaying of Project Fear’s greatest hits (most of which were misses, eg the wrong sign on 500,000 jobs!)

    Sadly May is tuned into that broken record according to rumours.

    @ JIB – I think May wanted something better than Norway when she was 20pts ahead of Corbyn but broadly agree (ie with a 40+ish majority and no need for DUP then NI could have special status and she could have negotiated harder with EC ignoring arch-ERG and arch-remain). Polling on “will May get a good deal” switched after theMayb0tch GE – lots of folks foresaw the problem of DUP, ERG, etc).

    Those folks obviously including EC and Corbyn!

    Since the GE it has always looked like BINO or No Deal.

    Least bad of the two IMHO is no deal but only if May+Hammond are gone. Second worst is Corbyn can do BINO with new CON fixing it later.

    We are certainly in the realms of “least bad”. No cake is on offer

  49. Some light relief as we head into our darkest hour (bit dramatic!)

    Businesses are carnivores. They don’t have a sweet tooth, they have a meat tooth!

    No more cake, give us pork ;)

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