This week’s YouGov poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 42%(nc), LAB 40%(+1), LDEM 9%(nc). Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday and changes are from last week. The two point lead is a little lower than YouGov have been showing of late, but nothing outside normal sample variation.

On the other regular YouGov trackers, 44% of people think that Britain was wrong to vote for Brexit, 43% think it was right. Just 22% of people think that the government are doing well at negotiating Bret, 62% think they are doing badly (including a majority of both Leavers and Remainers). While the poll was taken after the government’s announcement of extra funding for the NHS, it has unsurprisingly has little impact on which party people trust more on the issue – 34% of people think Labour would handle the NHS better, 24% think the Conservatives would. Full tabs are here.

While it’s not a particularly new poll (the fieldwork was conducted the weekend before last) there was also a newly published BMG poll yesterday. Topline figures there were CON 38%(-1), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 11%(+1). Changes are since early May. This is the only poll since mid-April to have shown Labour ahead. Full tabs are here.

UPDATE: A third poll out tonight. Survation have topline figures of CON 41%(nc), LAB 38%(-2), LDEM 7%(-2). Fieldwork was Tuesday to Thursday and changes are from the start of the month. The poll has some more questions on Brexit – full details are here.


1,218 Responses to “Latest YouGov and BMG voting intentions”

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  1. @ TED

    Not owning a car I get the bus a lot and I think most of the oldies on the bus look pretty Laboury to me (not just in Wigan but Tory areas I should add). I think mostly the blue rinse probably continue to drive up to the point where they then get relatives or taxis to take them around.

    On sunshine I’m normally fully in agreement with you but the moor fires in the North west have really had me praying for rain. We have had days in Wigan where you can see the fire from certain places and we get periods of smokey air quality this far away. Unbelievably in Chorley there seems to have been a case of kids deliberately starting a fire with the same purpose in mind.

    A couple of weeks back we went to a bird sanctuary in Southport and the view from the hide was was amazing with so much variety and activity. Went back this week and the lake/pond/wetlands had gone with just cracked mud remaining. Fortunately there was still a deeper area further down where presumably the birds could hop over to but to be honest I was quite devastated at the scene and the fear that will get even worse. Big two day downpour and back to the sun would suit me.

  2. @Polltroll
    “TED: What’s the latest with Northamptonshire CC? I must confess that, despite living only about ten miles from the Northamptonshire border, I haven’t a clue what’s going on there.”

    The problems result from years of mismanagement dating back to the Labour administration of 1993-2005 and continuing under the Conservatives since then. Very little to do with Party Politics in my view, and largely the result of a longstanding managerial culture that has been preoccupied with ‘innovation’ (i.e. gimmicry), vanity projects and bureaucratic self-interest; an obsession with ‘growth’ at the expense of consistent and efficient administration; and centralisation by national government dating back to the New Labour years that has undermined local democracy and properly accountable public service.

    The local government structure (the fact that Northampton itself is a lower tier Borough where in most comparable counties the main population centre is a unitary authority) is also a huge part of the problem, and will be an obstacle to any real solution: the current proposal is to create two new unitary authorities, which is probably the best option if it leads to real change in management. However the existing structure means that there are strong vested interests that will resist this change (in the North of the County as well as the South and West).

    Any solution will have to be imposed by central government in opposition to these interests and I’m not convinced that Whitehall, let alone Westminster will have the stomach for the fight.

  3. @ Polltroll

    The problems in Northamptonshire result from years of mismanagement dating back to the Labour administration of 1993-2005 and continuing under the Conservatives since then. Very little to do with Party Politics in my view, and largely the result of a longstanding managerial culture that has been preoccupied with ‘innovation’ (i.e. gimmicry), vanity projects and bureaucratic self-interest; an obsession with ‘growth’ at the expense of consistent and efficient administration; and centralisation by national government dating back to the New Labour years that has undermined local democracy and properly accountable public service.

    The local government structure (the fact that Northampton itself is a lower tier Borough where in most comparable counties the main population centre is a unitary authority) is also a huge part of the problem, and will be an obstacle to any real solution: the current proposal is to create two new unitary authorities, which is probably the best option if it leads to real change in management. However the existing structure means that there are strong vested interests that will resist this change (in the North of the County as well as the South and West).

    Any solution will have to be imposed by central government in opposition to these interests and I’m not convinced that Whitehall, let alone Westminster will have the stomach for the fight.

  4. @Alec

    Everyone is warning of labour shortages across a whole range of sectors (construction; engineering; tech; business services; haulage; agriculture) and that clearly started to impact recruitment at the back end of 2017.

  5. @Shevii

    Which sanctuary was that? Live quite a way to the east now but still get to Martin Mere and the mighty Pennington Flash when I can.

  6. Looks like May’s new customs plan is d.o.a at Chequers although remarkably Davis doesn’t appear to have threatened to resign this week (yet):

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/05/david-davis-says-mays-new-brexit-customs-plan-is-unworkable

  7. PT
    I give up, I can’t work out what it doesn’t like. JBoyd isn’t wrong, but it’s mainly the libraries, the bus station, the grass not getting cut, the white elephant of the County’s parking-free HQ that people are up in arms about.

    There are a ton of consultations going on about the unitary authorities, even though HMG has already laid down what’s going to happen, although Northampton Borough councillors are consulting on creating a town council so they can keep the mayor and their own jobs.

  8. Hireton: Looks like May’s new customs plan is d.o.a at Chequers although remarkably Davis doesn’t appear to have threatened to resign this week (yet)

    Good grief. From TFA: “But Davis reportedly told May the EU would block any deal for the UK to police its borders. The Daily Telegraph reported that in his letter he said that the plan was doomed because it amounted to a customs partnership with some additional technological elements.” It appears he has listened to Barnier and can actually give a fair representation of his position.

  9. The Guardian also have a piece on this:

    David Davis says May’s new Brexit customs plan is unworkable.

    It really is a failed negotiation.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/05/david-davis-says-mays-new-brexit-customs-plan-is-unworkable

  10. @ Chris Riley

    It’s at Marshside- main coastal road into Southport.

    When I say “sanctuary” it’s just two hides, a couple of viewing points and portaloo so no visitor centre and just a donations can in one of the hides. But it is run by RSPB and there seems to have been a lot of care gone into it- quite a lot of interesting flora and butterflies/insects as well. Really amazing so close to a main road and to be honest I enjoyed it more than Martin Mere but this might have been due to time of year. Possibly nothing that rare for the hardened twitchers but swifts and swallows in abundance and a few things with long beaks. Can’t say what it would be like in November but June was good and everyone likes Southport for afterwards surely- or is that just people from Shevington who do (smiley).

    Pennington Flash struggling at the moment as well I understand?

  11. Oh sorry, missed the earlier link by Hireton. Going round in circles!

  12. @Hireton

    “although remarkably Davis doesn’t appear to have threatened to resign this week (yet)”

    Give him time, it’s only Thursday. If he really wants to frighten people he could threaten to do a full day’s work.

  13. @ SHEVII – It’s late but not TOO late.

    HMRC will be ready for any outcome and in many ways the later you leave it for business (especially services) then better than is for UK.

    It’s very dangerous to annoy business but all these companies and lobby groups have Janus heads – if we add a little friction to trade with EU we should to offset that with some quid pro quo elsewhere. The “frictionless trade” head is shouting in the press and the “what’s in it for me” head is ready and waiting for G.Clarke’s replacement.

    This is a huge open goal for new CON leader and was set out in broad brush in Lancaster House – Plan B!

    @ HIRETON – Damn, I had money on SJ bringing up the JLR story so lost a fiver! Did you check the numbers – doubt it. JLR seem to think the entire costs calculated for the entire car industry from a WTO deal will hit them and they won’t be able to pass a bean off that onto EU consumers (in fairness that bit might be close to truth as the pass-through on the exchange rate was only around 20%)! They should be more worried about US tariffs and more excited about future lower tariffs there and to China, rWorld. A “bung” for their new electric car productions wouldn’t go amiss – pretty sure that is what the other side of their Janus head is asking for!

  14. How to convert impact of WTO between numbers produced by Remain, Reality and Leave.

    Remain = Reality x 10

    Leave = 0

    e.g. Thompson 20bn. Reality = 2bn. Leave say 0bn

    Language is a bit more tricky and you have to read between the lines and use above formula for the numbers, eg

    JLR say “no deal” with EU will costs 1.2bn

    translates to:

    we want a 120mn “bung” in a “no deal” outcome and rapid progress on trade deals with our largest market (China, not EU) and near =2nd largest market (US)

    Once you understand the “game” the numbers and lobbying all make complete sense – all we need now is a SoS for Business that understands the game and a CoE that understands how to reverse engineer the OBR budget deficit model (that would be tax cuts = growth = self funding).

  15. passtherockplease,
    “1. Firstly I believe after the LibDems fiasco of being coalition members no political party would do anything like that again ”

    The DUP have…

    The problem the libs have is that their management team and voters had very different ideas what the party stood for. So when they decided their ‘red lines’ , they were all the wrong ones. Many insider libs still seem to claim they had noteable success as part of the coalition, whereas their voters think they sold out.

    It is somewhat reminiscent of the tries problem implementing Brexit. Their voters are very likely to end up thinking they were sold out, whatever the tories do.

    Trevor Warne,
    ” Scrap HS2″

    Surely an example of exactly the wrong policy, if what you want is to make the regions feel more part of one whole?

  16. @Polltroll – I think the other historic issue to consider in relation to reshoring after a hard Brexit is to ask the question of why do we have so many foreign owned manufacturers here in the first place.

    Theoretical stuff is what economics thrives on, but in terms of a predictive science, I’m more interested in trying to match the theory with real world events. If reshoring was a great idea when trade barriers go up, you would have thought that Japan wouldn’t have opened up car plants in the UK as a means to access the EU market – this is the reverse of reshoring. As this is what actually happened, it would seem odd to bank of post hard Brexit reshoring, as history hasn’t suggested a very strong case for this.

  17. hireton,
    guardian on new customs plan: ” under the plan tracking devices would be used to determine where the goods would ultimately end up”

    Oh dear.

    trevor warne,
    “JLR say “no deal” with EU will costs 1.2bn” translates to:
    we want a 120mn “bung” in a “no deal” outcome and rapid progress on trade deals with our largest market (China, not EU) and near =2nd largest market (US)

    You know as well as I that JLR will never build cars in the Uk to sell to china. Nor as Trump is going, to the US.

    The problem with this sort of subsidy to overcome structural costs of operating inside the Uk is that they must continue forever. That is why BL etc died. You cannot permanently bribe companies to stay here, it isnt even lawful under WTO etc to do so. They will relocate if there is any edge in doing so. There are no special trade deals to be made with anyone which will improve our trading position, especially if you rule out the sort of tight integration requiring pooling of sovereignty which many leavers seem to find objectionable about the EU.

    While the government keeps rearranging the deckchairs on the trad deck of the titanic, no one has addressed the problem of trading with anywhere else in the world. If we cannot even maintain terms with the Eu, what chance anywhere else, where as leave keep pointing out, we do not start with already harmonised rules. (and nor could we harmonise them, because we will remain in lockstep with the EU, we have to).

  18. DANNY
    “passtherockplease,
    “1. Firstly I believe after the LibDems fiasco of being coalition members no political party would do anything like that again ”
    The DUP have…”

    Admittedly the nuances will be lost on most, but actually they haven’t, have they? They’re operating C&S which if the Libs had had any foresight they would have done as well.

    I agree with the rest though, while the libs supposedly believed they were a tempering influence on the Tories, it’s hard to imagine the DUP imagining they were doing the same.

  19. Profhoward,
    “EEA is simply the membership of a big market with our neighbours. It is far from a disaster, ”

    Thats all very well, but both leave and remain consider it to be a worse situation than being a full member.

    It might be a classic compromise in the sense of being half way between the two extreme views, but it will not satisfy anyone.

    Passtherockplease,
    “@CHARLES
    I think you are blaming the electorate here!!!
    Well me too,”

    I’m not so sure. The electorate was presented with a choice and made a decision. But the post brexit situation they were promised is not achievable. They were asked, they chose, but it was a false choice and a false question.

    That makes it the fault of the brexit politicians who promised something which could not be delivered. Part of May’s strategy in placing leavers in charge of brexit is because they will be blamed by the party when it goes wrong. Maybe Boris refused to be part of the brexit team and chose to be at one remove from the impending disaster as foreign secretary.

    Actually, I am sceptical how different the views of many on leave and remain really are. They might critically be divided between those who believed the promises of cake, and those who did not. Remainers will not be surprised if Brexit fails, but leavers will be livid.

    Politicians need to stop saying a choice has been made and start saying one of the options offered at the referendum cannot be delivered, so the result becomes meaningless.

    trevor Warne,
    “Any CON tuning in should be very aware of the same thing – we have nothing to fear from a new GE (well apart from Zac Goldsmith perhaps) – instead we have everything to gain – next time it will Corbyn who is a “no show” not the new CON leader!!!

    The exact same things were said in 2017, except the tories were 10-20% ahead at the time? What evidence is there that another campaign right now would not boost labour 15 points once again? (if they craft a remain strategy again, that is)

  20. @ DANNY – “You know as well as I that JLR will never build cars in the Uk to sell to china”

    Errr, except of course that that is exactly what they currently do! China being their largest export market for cars made in UK!!

    “You cannot permanently bribe companies to stay here, it isnt even lawful under WTO etc to do so.”

    Errr, except everyone else does that now – that is part of what we did to get Nissan, etc here. Within EU Germany, Belgium, etc get away with “bending” the rules (JLR bent them pretty hard in partnership with Slovakia – it’s easier with new plants than old but a “bung” to encourage retooling for electric car production would be “bending” WTO rules). Also the very strong German car lobby group got away with dieselgate (why we have to leave ECJ). If you look at WTO “rules” you’ll find they are fairly relaxed (e.g. what US does with regards to state aid for car manus makes Germany look laissez faire!)

    The problem with ne0-liberal EC apologists is you think the EU playing field is level when it isn’t, never was, maybe one day it might be and maybe one day we should rejoin. Until then play the same game as everyone else – bend the rules on state aid (where WTO are more flexible and we don’t have the ECJ limiting what UK can; and don’t have EU “rules” that allow more generous state aid to those with better lobby groups or lower GDP/capita)

    Also, UK industry is not the 1960-70s uncompetitive unionised disaster making “Wednesday” cars, etc. No developed nation with comparable wages and labour market regulations, soft union power, etc has a genuine comparative advantage in making cars

    Check on google. Nissan asked for 100bn, WITH or WITHOUT Brexit. They got a “letter”. JLR are rightly wanting a bit of the same.

    What is deeply upsetting is that genuine LAB folks are fully on board with Corbyn having another crack at nationalisation but most CON folks still abide by laissez faire. Capitalism was perverted by the ne0-liberal movement and needs going back to it’s roots, looking at which assumptions went wrong, fixing those and starting afresh – ie doing what Socialism is pretending it is doing, but capitalism needs to move forward while Socialism is looking backwards.

    You can overdo it of course (too much state aid x too much union power = no incentive to improve productivity, as seen in US car manu) and crony capitalism is vile (and rife in EU!). In between there is a “goldilocks” position – just enough state aid to allow private sector to compete with the countries tipping the playing field their way but no so much you trash competitiveness.

  21. @ DANNY – I know you disagree but May b0tched the manifesto then failed to show up, Corbyn turned the debate to topics he cared about, generated new voters and a high turnout, was helped by tactical voting from Blairites who should have voted LDEM, etc, etc.

    Corbyn added pretty much every vote he could get last time – what evidence is there he will win a higher share next time?

    – He is way below May in “best PM” (and May is cr4p)
    – Peak Corbyn occurred after the GE
    – Leave is still broadly tied with Remain and Corbyn is “on the buses” when it comes to debating Brexit.

    You could of course check the polls. CON +5 in last YG and +3 in the bag with UKIP not standing in a new Clean Brexit CON v BINO LAB v Revoke+Remain LDEM/Green GE

    I’m not saying it’s without risk – I don’t think Javid has much charisma (Cleverly would be better, Gove a little toxic IMHO). However, worst case is Corbyn takes over before 29Mar’19 with SNP/LDEM forcing him to try and revoke+remain via a last minute new ref – that cake collapses and CON come back in during transition to BINO and finish Brexit properly before Dec’20.

    Risky for sure but CON limping on is a disaster. Any humanitarian should see that May needs putting out of her misery. I wish her well on more frequent walking holidays – it’s not personal, she is probably a nice person, she is just a cr4p PM.

  22. @DANNY

    passtherockplease,
    “1. Firstly I believe after the LibDems fiasco of being coalition members no political party would do anything like that again ”

    The DUP have…

    You only partially quoted me and they had decidely not entered a coalition with the Tories far from it they have defended their corner as I stated the Lib Dems folded on PR (we end up with the AV which they could not even explain, Student loans, Bedroom tax, HSC which they did not even read), Hell they argued that VAT was regressive and raising was wrong and then they raised it.

    Ow you could say Stockholm syndrome but jeez the DUP did the opposite of what the LDs did. They have somethign tangible (£1B and for that they have left May in government but not really in power. Indeed the Money has isolated NI from the effects of what is happening in the rest of the UK.

    Many LibDems say they did sterling work on the inside. I can only think of one thing that I think was an an unalloyed success gay marriage and that is given to the Tories even though more than half the Tory MPs opposed it. Simply put they were awful. It is why they have a problem. the disconnect between what the hierarchy believe and what those on the ground have seen is mind boggling. Read Cleggs book to find out how badly they were shafted

    I think the fact that what was offered was impossible to deliver and indeed there was no one tasked to deliver it. say a huge amount about the electorate. If we cannot discern what can be delivered or not then it becomes which set of porkies do you believe. People wanted to believe it because it fits with their world view. So people were given a choice and they chose.

    Politicians need to stop saying a choice has been made and start saying one of the options offered at the referendum cannot be delivered, so the result becomes meaningless.

    The problem is we are wedded to the fact we made a choice that choice says a lot about who we are offering a referendum without making the winners responsible for it was the worst idea. It is like the Conservatives winning the election and puttling the Labour party in the driving seat May wanted to the to be all things to all men and she cannot be

  23. Alec: Why do we have so many foreign-owned manufacturers in the first place?

    Is that a problem, or is it just a more socially acceptable variant of Little Englander syndrome? Who cares what country the company is based in? (As long as it’s not a tax haven of course.)

  24. @ Alec

    Japan isn’t a very good example though.

    Although semi relevant to the argument of accessing the EU market, Japan is an exceptional economic case as they don’t have any unemployment worth mentioning. So on top of accessing the EU market they get the UK to produce things for them that they couldn’t have made otherwise and earn themselves a bit of extra revenue. The only alternative way they could do this (assuming they are as automated as they can be) would be with immigration on which they have loosened policy a little bit but still seem generally to be against.

  25. I’m looking at the reports of leaks of the new customs document (e.g. in the Spectator). As expected, it is an attempt to enlarge the EU’s NI backstop proposal to the whole of the UK by accepting the Single Market in goods but diverging in services. This is probably a non-starter with the EU, but there is also strong resistance from the brexit ultras. Apparently the document acknowledges that aligning product standards with the EU rules out a trade agreement with the US.

    Essentially, the cabinet is meeting to discuss whether brexit is a good idea at all! That’s what it comes down to, two and a half years after a referendum was supposed to have settled the question.

  26. Correction: two years ago. Anyway it feels like a long time.

    Simon Wren-Lewis has an excellent article Brexit: The Endgame

    “May has to pretend we got something worth leaving for.”

    plus some astute observations on Labour’s position.

    https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2018/07/brexit-endgame.html

  27. TW: Damn, I had money on SJ bringing up the JLR story so lost a fiver!

    Why would I comment on a story that’s been widely covered and speaks for itself?

    I prefer to bring something new to the table. Like, for instance, the fact that your bung-hero and great white hope of re-shoring, Nissan, saw its 1st-half UK car sales fall by 30%, and its market share go from 6.07 to 4.53% (falling further to 3.68% in June).

    The Japanese may be very discreet and averse to complaining, but Nissan UK is hurting badly.

    You might also like to note that JLR mostly supplies the Chinese market with cars built locally in a 50:50 JV with Chery, whose spokesman said last year, “capacity is never a problem in China.” JLR also opened its first engine plant outside the UK in China last year.

  28. Interesting Hal, another opinion confirming my reading that the Hard Brexit Tories won’t get their way.

    Labour position on the SM has always been to retain the benefits of the SM (Cakist Yes as how can we have the benefits without the obligations in terms of four freedoms) and I doubt very much the PM will end up arguing for staying in completely.

    Of course, Labours position for transition is the in effect to stay in the SM which is what will happen and negotiations will continue with who knows who?

    NB) Transition was supposed to be an implementation period leading up a final arrangement which was already agreed but that was never realistic and some loose understandings of the type of arrangements transition is heading to is what will happen.

    Was always going to be thus and as above substantive negotiations may well lead to the realisation that some loose understanding are agreeable or workable.

    They have to be in there though to appease semi-hard Brexiteers (Gove for example)

  29. It feels awfully like we’re watching the Government collapse in slow motion right now.

  30. CHRIS RILEY
    “It feels awfully like we’re watching the Government collapse in slow motion right now.”

    It’s felt like that since June 2016, surely? It’s like watching an Andy Warhol movie at 1/365 of the speed.

  31. Ladies & gentlemen, I present to you “Someone Else’s Fault: The Movie”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/week-broke-brexit-litany-mistakes-got-britain-mess-should/

  32. @ Chris Riley

    Too slow motion for me- I predicted Corbyn government and two days later England winning the World Cup. There is a real danger now that the slogan of England only winning the World Cup under a Labour government won’t be true anymore!

    It’s another headache for May because she can’t be seen anywhere near Russia to get the credit.

  33. Gove, Leadsome and the other ‘leave’ ministers will imo go with a fudge worked out; even if it is one the EU won’t accept *

    Davis- no idea as he can’t be bothered it seems to me and may use as a pretext to walk.

    Frankly who cares about Johnson as he is spent currency.

    Fox imo is the one most likely to walk this weekend as the restriction on bilaterals for another 2-3 years could be too much for him; even then he will probably stay as he likes the trappings of office too much.

    * I do think there should be elements the EU wont accept as compromise needs to be seen to be made for political consumption purposes.

    EU, will in the end imo allow frictionless SM access for the whole UK and the UK will not do third country deals. Plus there may be some easy movement rules in place between UK and mainland Europe.

    The biggest actual difference between mainstream Lab and Cons imo is the ECJ, with Labour not really caring while Tories see it as symbolic.

  34. CR

    “It feels awfully like we’re watching the government collapse in slow motion right now “
    Fortunately for May the opposition is even more clueless than she is ,it must be very frustrating for Labour supporters that at this pivotal point they have an old duffer in charge of the party.

  35. trevor warne,
    ” Until then play the same game as everyone else – bend the rules on state aid (where WTO are more flexible and we don’t have the ECJ limiting what UK can; ”

    The main factor preventing Uk governments subsidising Uk industry (by whatever devious means), has been that they chose not to do it.

    “@ DANNY – “You know as well as I that JLR will never build cars in the Uk to sell to china”

    Errr, except of course that that is exactly what they currently do! China being their largest export market for cars made in UK!!”

    2014 article here about their new plant in china to tranfer production there. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-29702342/jaguar-land-rover-1bn-chinese-factory-begins-production

  36. Now here’s something that really ought to be of interest here. ICM have a poll out on what people think of the current voting system for the HoC.

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/ICM-Omnibus-National-Democracy-Week.xlsx

    If it is to be believed, the people now quite keen on PR, and are rather disillusioned with FPTP.

    Main take-home:

    Support/Oppose PR: 56/10
    (same question asked in slightly different ways, all getting similar answers)

    That’s quite different to the AV result. Though of course AV was (IMHO) a fairly pointless compromise.

    So how about it? Will of the people – we need PR.

  37. What disappoints me about May’s plan is that the single market should include services not just goods.

    Services are an important part of our economy and we should be in the single market for them, not just goods.

  38. “EU, will in the end imo allow frictionless SM access for the whole UK and the UK will not do third country deals. Plus there may be some easy movement rules in place between UK and mainland Europe.”

    Yes, basically the EEA. The EU will not accept a Swiss type deal and nor should we.

  39. Here’s another nice bite-sized poll to digest:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/na5r6ydq0e/InternalResults_180703_Brexit_GB.pdf

    YouGov parties united/divided poll. Summary: in the opinion of those asked, Labour are incredibly badly divided (9/59 united/divided) and, wait for it, Conservatives are even worse (6/66). It’s amazing anyone wants to vote for either party really, but they’re both at 40%. Strange times.

  40. Trevor Warne,
    “May b0tched the manifesto then failed to show up, Corbyn turned the debate to topics he cared about, generated new voters and a high turnout, was helped by tactical voting from Blairites who should have voted LDEM, etc, etc”

    No, she didnt. She held an election in order to get a mandate for hard Brexit. That was the policy. Did you not hear her speeches? She had no interest in pushing any other policy, because it was not about anything else. They had a working majority. They still have a working majority right now with fewer MPs.

    Conservatives did not want to win on any issue except Brexit, because it was Brexit they had committed to and promised to deliver. To do this they needed an unequivocal and clear mandate.

    At that point in time it must already have become apparent to the government that leave had promised something unattainable. They could only rectify that by clearly stating their hard Brexit objective, no compromises with the Eu, and getting this supported. They had to get voters onboard with an at least significanty more honest single vision of what sort of Brexit they planned. They had to get voter agreement to a bad Brexit outcome, rather than the milk and honey Leave had promised.

    It didnt work out. They got their answer, voters do not support hard Brexit.

    Corbyn did not want to fight an election on brexit, so he fought it on his flavour of socialism. This proved rather popular, far more so than many expected. His goal was to prove that this was the case, that is why he wanted an election. That is why he jumped at the prospect of one.

  41. @TRIGGUY

    I think the problem is two fold if you ask those same voters is the country divided I would suggest they would come to the same conclusion. The country is divided and that is down to how the electorate voted politicians are trying to make sense of it all as they need both leave and remain votes. They also cannot say that the voter is wrong despite the we won and you lost rhetoric. I believe the real problem is that the country wants something it can’t have and are now in quandary as to how to get out of the mess. Most think of just getting over it and keeping their heads down some are gung-ho either for remain or leave. Part of me feels sorry for all concerned but I think that no one want to admit this was maybe not the best idea we have had it sad but we brought it on ourselves we get the politicians and policies we deserve

  42. @TRIGGUY

    I think the problem is two fold if you ask those same voters is the country divided I would suggest they would come to the same conclusion. The country is divided and that is down to how the electorate voted politicians are trying to make sense of it all as they need both leave and remain votes. They also cannot say that the voter is wrong despite the we won and you lost rhetoric. I believe the real problem is that the country wants something it can’t have and are now in quandary as to how to get out of the mess. Most think of just getting over it and keeping their heads down some are gung-ho either for remain or leave. Part of me feels sorry for all concerned but I think that no one want to admit this was maybe not the best idea we have had it sad but we brought it on ourselves we get the politicians and policies we deserve

  43. @Trigguy

    The main barrier to PR is two parties who disproportionately benefit from FPTP.

    They seem unwillingly to give up their built in advantage.

  44. passtherockplease,
    “The problem is we are wedded to the fact we made a choice”

    No, we are not. The fact politicians keep saying this is the case means that voters are not wedded to it, or they would not have to keep repeating it as their justification every time they do something they do not believe in.

    Politicians understand they are in a no win situation. They have promised to deliver what cannot be delivered. To turn about and refuse to do it is unacceptable, to try to do it and fail is unacceptable.

    Labour, if they choose, have a couple of ways out. Firstly they are not the government. Secondly, most of their supporters are remainers, so they would not be forsworn if they did what their voters are asking for. The clever tactic is probably to avoid taking a definite stance for as long as possible, so that the difficulties of Brexit become as clear as possible first. Thereby minimising any losses from leaver defection when they finally concede to the will of their voters and go remain.

    This seems to be consistent with their actions so far.

    Hal,
    “Apparently the document acknowledges that aligning product standards with the EU rules out a trade agreement with the US. ”

    So would it be sensible to align with our biggest customer the EU, align with a much smaller customer the US, or create some unique british way which doesnt align with anyone? (leaving aside whether we fancy chlorinated chicken per se)

    “Essentially, the cabinet is meeting to discuss whether brexit is a good idea at all!”

    You might just have hit it there. I keep arguing there is not disagreement within the party, its just show. The real issue is therefore when to throw in the towel and admit Brexit is an awful idea. The risk to labour is that the tories might just do this and outflank labour to capture the remain vote. It would be a most interesting election if they do.

  45. @ SJ – Consumer cutting back on spending after years of over doing it x Nissan making cars Brits not so keen on buying. Not an especially tough one to answer!

    Anyway, credit to you for not mentioned JLR (indeed that story was around pre-Jun’16) but then going on to mention it! Slow… hand… clap….

    Maybe check JLR’s own website for info! You can’t export from China to China – they wouldn’t be called exports if that was the case would they! Slow… slap… of… face

  46. @ CMJ

    True of course. The other poll just emphasises that we’re in a situation now where, in general, people have little belief in either of the main parties, but FPTP means that one of them will keep on getting in anyway. Some sort of democratic reform (either HoL or HoC or both) is long overdue, but you get the feeling things are going to creak on as they have been for decades to come. Maybe if the UK does break up, that will finally prompt some re-thinking.

  47. @Trigguy

    This is why I support a really radical change.

    Our institutions are simply incapable of serious reform IMHO, and won’t ‘evolve’ into something better.

    I think we need a hard-core and destructive collapse of the system before reform will come.

    (This is partially why I voted Leave, and certainly support Scottish independence etc. I call it creative destruction).

  48. Good Evening all, from a warm Bournemouth beach.
    I think the Tory Govt will not break up after the Great Compromise on the EU which will make a deal with May.
    I also think My will continue as PM until 2022 and will beat Corbyn Labour

  49. EU will not accept whatever ideas May runs past her cabinet tomorrow. However they will be pleased that May is moving towards the EEA option which they are happy to agree.

  50. @Danny

    “No, she didnt. She held an election in order to get a mandate for hard Brexit. That was the policy. Did you not hear her speeches? She had no interest in pushing any other policy, because it was not about anything else. They had a working majority. They still have a working majority right now with fewer MPs.”

    Wrong. She held an election to try and isolate the ERG. That failed.

    Look at the recent coup in Wales against breakfast Brexiter Davies.

    Theresa May always wanted the Norway option. The electorate want the Norway option. I voted for Brexit and I want the Norway option.

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