This week’s YouGov poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 42%(nc), LAB 40%(+1), LDEM 9%(nc). Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday and changes are from last week. The two point lead is a little lower than YouGov have been showing of late, but nothing outside normal sample variation.

On the other regular YouGov trackers, 44% of people think that Britain was wrong to vote for Brexit, 43% think it was right. Just 22% of people think that the government are doing well at negotiating Bret, 62% think they are doing badly (including a majority of both Leavers and Remainers). While the poll was taken after the government’s announcement of extra funding for the NHS, it has unsurprisingly has little impact on which party people trust more on the issue – 34% of people think Labour would handle the NHS better, 24% think the Conservatives would. Full tabs are here.

While it’s not a particularly new poll (the fieldwork was conducted the weekend before last) there was also a newly published BMG poll yesterday. Topline figures there were CON 38%(-1), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 11%(+1). Changes are since early May. This is the only poll since mid-April to have shown Labour ahead. Full tabs are here.

UPDATE: A third poll out tonight. Survation have topline figures of CON 41%(nc), LAB 38%(-2), LDEM 7%(-2). Fieldwork was Tuesday to Thursday and changes are from the start of the month. The poll has some more questions on Brexit – full details are here.


1,218 Responses to “Latest YouGov and BMG voting intentions”

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  1. Feeling happier with my forecast that we are heading towards parity, based on headwinds and recent events, after the latest 2 polls but we need 4 at least before being able to state with confidence that the Tory lead is narrowing.

    (Ignore the 7 that was an outlier it is from a 2-3% lead base-line we should be judging imo).

  2. Jim Jam / Hal on the previous thread

    I doubt if the Irish border issue can be fudged.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0615/970823-tony-connelly-brexit/

    Bloodshed in the Conservative party has long been the only way of resolving its internal contradictions

  3. Interesting that after months and months of Brexit overload leavened only by brief skirmishes over racism and religionism, as soon as the Tories try to beat Labour by promising lavish helpings of cake for the NHS people not only don’t believe them, including their mates in the media, but it’s reflected in the polls, assuming obviously that this isn’t an outlier.

    The Today programme this morning was reporting on Hammond’s speech for tonight in which he’s going to admit that taxes will have to rise to pay for it, and will probably paper over any claims his more excitable chums might make for the Brexit Dividend coming to the rescue. With coverage like this I can’t see that trust figure for the NHS moving soon.

    This does have the feeling of a story that is going to run and run and sit in the background of every news item concerning taxation, health and Brexit. It has the potential to be brought out every time there’s a quiet news day between now and the budget, and possibly scupper the budget too if the government lasts that long. My belief is that they will, but also that it’s going to be fun to watch them clinging on in the meantime.

  4. Yet to be convinced, as far as I am concerned the gap is still two points, exactly where it was at the last GE. The 3-pt Labour lead from a few days ago was an outlier in the opposite direction to the 7-pt Tory lead before that. But if we start seeing a couple more Labour leads I shall have to concede.

    I know everyone’s talking about NHS funding but I do wonder if the Chope fiasco might just have put a dent in the Tories. It’s absolutely terrible optics for them, and I get the impression it’s the sort of story ordinary people notice.

  5. PT – agree we need more polls and a 3% Lab lead is within moe of a 2% actual Con lead.

    YG was regularly showing 3-5% leads before that 7% so 2% for a few polls averaged in the next 2 weeks on them (the most favourable house effect at present it appears) would be a narrowing.

  6. The tables seem to show LDems as +1; have I mis-read something?

    It does feel like some negative feeling toward the Tories around Brexit and upskirting may be gaining a tiny bit of traction; all very apocryphal but a sub-set of fairly solidly Tory Remainers in my office are starting to really fret about how this will all play out.

    They are not clear about where they might go – LDems, D/K or even Green, but they remain virulently anti-Corbyn while finding it increasingly hard to stay loyal to the blues…

  7. @Polltroll from previous thread

    Here is a good article on the effect of Article 13 posted on an academic blog:

    https://blog.bham.ac.uk/cybersecurity/2018/06/15/article-13-and-the-great-copywall-of-europe/

    Actually, although Article 13 is getting the most attention, Article 11 could also cause significant damage to free speech. By imposing a ‘snippet tax’ on even the smallest quotes, it would enable copyright holders to charge an unreasonable sum for the use of any quotation and so make it harder for someone to write a critical review on anything published.

    Save your internet: https://www.saveyourinternet.eu/ is campaigning against it.

  8. @BigFatRon

    Don’t forget that the upskirting bill was Wera Hobhouse’s Private Member’s Bill, so that is a significant amount of attention to one of the Lib Dem MPs who would not normally have been noticed by the national media.

  9. LeftieLiberal: thanks, that was a very interesting read.

    I notice that, in addition to Article 13, the European Parliament yesterday voted to ratchet up sanctions on Venezuela. So if you’re a far-left keyboard warrior making pro-Maduro stock-image memes, yesterday must have really sucked for you.

  10. LeftyL
    The problem with that line is that even political anoraks of any persuasion except libdem will have already forgotten (if they ever knew) since, just as they did during the coalition years, the Tories will now get the credit for saving the legislation, with the added bonus that the mirror-shod member’s career is certainly finished, without having to send him upstairs.

    Even the Graun, whose continuing support for St Vince could be considered endearing in some quarters, only mentioned Wera Hobhouse in passing in their coverage.

    In retrospect this might actually have worked out well for the Tories, I suppose something had to eventually, even if more by luck than judgement.

    More likely that the long awaited libdem surge is down to MoE, imo.

  11. Sam,

    Yes, I agree, the Irish border is a huge obstacle. There’s more today:

    Ireland is not alone in Brexit talks, says Juncker

    “I am strongly against any temptation to try to isolate Ireland and not to conclude a deal on Ireland. Ireland has to be part of the deal”.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0621/972061-juncker_brexit/

  12. OK. This article will only be of interest to legal geeks concerned about issues in the UK’s internal territorial constitution.

    So (for that one other person!) here’s the link

    https://pure.strath.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/constitutional-change-and-territorial-consent(11342294-902f-4c76-9798-42ce638da601).html

    The third problem is the damage that Miller may have done to the perception of the Supreme Court as a neutral arbiter in future disputes in which the status of devolution, or the conflicting authority of UK and devolved institutions, is at stake. Certainly, it may be argued that such disputes are best kept out of the courts anyway. In Miller, the constitutional merits of requiring devolved consent were far from clear cut, and could have produced significant anomalies given the variations in constitutional practice and statutory recognition as between the various devolved territories. If the litigation had never occurred, a more satisfactory political solution might have been found. But successful reliance on convention and political agreement requires a high degree of constitutional trust

  13. CNN White House Correspondent

    President Trump just announced that First Lady Melania Trump has traveled to a detention facility in Texas.

    Presumably she’s in a separate cage from her son?

  14. Incidentally Hobhouse & Chope are both members of the Brexit Select Committee. Must have been some awkward small talk the last time they convened…

  15. @Oldnat

    as that other legal geek with an interest in constitutional issues I am afraid the link is not working, any navigation you can suggest?

  16. HAL, thanks for the RTE link – all very sensible.

    Two very apposite articles in the Belfast Telegraph today are worth a read.

    Unsurprisingly, the DUP’s Dodds is not best pleased that RoI being used as ‘bargaining chip’ by EU, which includes:

    He said: “Mr Juncker’s claim that ‘Ireland is not alone’ is false security for the country which would be most severely impacted by a no deal Brexit. If Mr Juncker was really focused on helping Ireland, he would be encouraging the EU to focus on getting a post Brexit trade deal in place.

    One could be excused for thinking that he had believed leave campaign propaganda.

    An unrelated article deals with the sad case of former MLA, Baron Hay of Ballyore, who sits in the HoL, had the misfortune to have been born in the RoI, and has been told that if wants a British passport he will have to undergo the naturalization process. He currently holds an Irish passport. A good wheeze for reducing HoL numbers, perhaps?

  17. shock horror, Labour are no doing as bad as people thought. Tories are not doing as well and Liberals well are still way behind.

    I think everyone is waiting for something to happen. We have politicians whom in the main are waiting for the electorate to give them a sign of which way to to go, we have the electorate that think that things are not going well it may be a bad idea but have no way of being able to see an approach to not do brexit. I find the whole thing in many ways hilarious. It is not only that our politicians have no idea which way to turn but in many ways the electorate are asking them to do the impossible.

    The reality is politicians can never tell the electorate they are wrong after all they need their votes

    ;-)

  18. WB61

    Sorry about that. I got the original link to the McHarg chapter from Twitter, then lost it.

    In that annoying way that Twitter has of not providing a constant list, I can’t find it again.

    If it reappears, I’ll post it for you.

  19. @Oldnat: The abolition of the old N. Irish Parliament under Heath shows that, legally, it is all about Acts of Parliament.

    So the need for a border poll is ultimately not one of law. That is not to say that there would be anything vaguely moral or right about preceding without one.

  20. Another Belfast Telegraph article today suggests that the Con & DUP previous guesstimates may have been incorrect, with Revealed: Northern Ireland’s huge £1.4bn trade surplus with Republic

    The report of cross border trade found that exports – excluding the financial and farming sectors – to the Republic were estimated to be worth £3.4billion to the Northern Ireland economy while imports were thought to be worth £2bn in a year.

    Perhaps unsurprising that the DUP are so keen on a soft border, perhaps.

  21. @oldnat and wb61

    This may be the missing link:

    pure.strath.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/constitutional-change-and-territorial-consent(11342294-902f-4c76-9798-42ce638da601).html

  22. @oldnat and wb61

    If you copy and paste it, it should work!

  23. @BARBZENZERO

    The clue is in the line ” excluding the financial and farming sectors”

  24. Yesterday was one of serious disappointments for me, leaving me pondering which decisions and events to put the most energy into fighting.

    First Brexit, and even a hard Brexit, came a step closer with the Tory rebels falling for spun half-promises, then Trump having his UK vanity trip approved and even being given an audience with HMQ.

    But sadly another US billionaire has been given approval to trash our Scottish most precious wildlife habitats at Coul north of Dornoch by Highland Council, this for a golf course that will lose money and likely be shut down 20 years hence.

    What is it about US billionaires that so entrances many local councillors here? Then 5 years` later, when promises aren`t kept, and there are 90 regular workers not 1200, they regret being fooled. Or at Robert Gordon`s Univ, they take back Trump`s honorary degree.

    Chris Deerin`s article (thanks Hireton) has an optimistic view of the SNP as builders, not wreckers:

    “”It’s not uncommon for supporters of independence to object to being described in the media as nationalists or separatists. They see themselves differently: as builders, not wreckers.””

    Let`s hope the Coul golf proposal gets called in by the Scottish Government, and the SNP can give more evidence that they aren`t wreckers. 38 Degrees are already seeking support for a call-in, and I would think tens of thousands will sign.
    ,

  25. Davwel

    I was undecided about the merits of Trump’s Menie Estate golf course originally.

    Given what happened there, and the distinct possibility of something similar happening at Coul, I share your hope that the Scottish Government calls this in.

    I’d like to hear ex-Highland councillor Peter Cairns on this subject.

  26. @PollTroll

    “Incidentally Hobhouse & Chope are both members of the Brexit Select Committee. Must have been some awkward small talk the last time they convened…”

    Or worse, perhaps? I hope they confiscate Chope’s mobile phone before Committee meetings.

    :-)

    As for the latest two opinion polls, and as others have already commented, it looks very much level pegging with any leads, for either party, being well within the +/- 3% MOE tolerances.

    What slightly intrigues me is the non-alignment between some of the key voting determinant issues and the headline VI figures. OK, May is leading the ugly contest with Corbyn, just about, and on economic competence too, but one would have thought that the big thumbs downs that May’s Government is getting on the NHS and the handling of the Brexit negotiations etc, we might be seeing some loss of support for the governing party. There’s precious little good news for them either in the rolling news agenda. The cold chill of incumbency and the need to just keep buggering on, is now well set in. Not quite mid-term blues, but getting there slowly.

    Accordingly, I remain (no pun intended) with my hunch that the Leave vote is sticking, limpet like, with the Tories, certainly until such time the negotiations are concluded, thereby distorting the outcome of opinion polls more used to operating in orthodox political times. That’s why, in many ways, these VI opinion polls are really telling us very little about a GE conducted post Brexit.

    We will then be inhabiting a much different world. All bets then off, I think.

  27. Hireton

    It looks like the New Statesman is preparing the ground for the English Tories to give up on keeping Scotland.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2018/06/who-can-challenge-nicola-sturgeon-s-snp-and-drive-towards-scottish

  28. I did respond but for some reason it’s in moderation…even though it was moderate!

    Peter.

  29. Darwel/Oldnat,

    “Let`s hope the Coul golf proposal gets called in by the Scottish Government, and the SNP can give more evidence that they aren`t wreckers.”

    “I’d like to hear ex-Highland councillor Peter Cairns on this subject.”

    Well as a former member of the a HC Planning Committee, though the have changed the structure since, I have to say that I tended to go with recommendations unless there was a valid planning reason not to. I still take that view.

    Many others looked on it from a point of view of popularity, backing popular proposals and not controversial ones.
    Planning committees are however Quasi-Judical where decisions should be made on the basis of Scottish Planning Law, in the Same way as a Justice makes decisions in a Sheriff’s Court.

    Therefore the correct way to approach it isn’t based on the number of objections but on those that have legal merit.
    I’ve backed unpopular local applications because although people didn’t like them the applications were perfectly valid and I’ve gone against ones I wanted because an objector had raised a valid objection that couldn’t be overcome.

    I think that if HC planners have advocated refusal then they are likely right and the smart planning move would be refusal.

    The applicant can always resubmit with amendments (free of charge if with six months) and refusal was often a way to get developers to amend or improve their initial proposal.
    Key to this might be any amendments that were added to approval.

    If Members added enough conditions that opponents wanted then it might be that they have done enough to convince the SG that the Planners recommendation for refusal isn’t valid.
    If it is called in and I suspect it will be it will and should be comparing the proposal with the local plans and the quality of the objections to determine the application in terms of Planning Law.

    Which groups and how many object isn’t an issue it’s whether they make the case.

    Much like the Supreme Court ruling on aspects of Brexit it should be about legal argument rather than populism, the facts of the case not emotional sentiment.

    People who, like the Press attacking Judges deciding what you think of the SG depending if they like the decision or not don’t understand or refuse to accept the process.

    Right now a good outcome given the scale and nature of the development is for the SG to call it in and make a Legal Determination.

    Doing that fairly and neutrally is more important than which side the come down on and suggesting they are “Wreakers” if they give it the go ahead is little short of deliberate wilful ignorance.

    Choosing to ignore or deny the facts because you don’t like the outcome.

    Peter.

  30. Changed to “attacking Judges” from mentioning the word the Press used for them seems to have done the trick!

    Peter.

  31. Shocking decision about the Coul golf course.

  32. Interesting new Survation Poll:

    http://survation.com/brexit-vote-two-years-on-survation-for-good-morning-britain/

    Westminster Voting Intention (change since 4th June)

    CON 41% (NC)
    LAB 38% (-2)
    LD 7% (-2)
    SNP 4% (+1)
    UKIP 3% (+1)
    GREEN 3% (+1)

    EU Referendum Voting Intention (change since 4th June)

    The poll also finds that if the referendum was rerun today the UK would remain in the EU, for the first time since March.

    Leave 47% (-2)
    Remain 53% (+2)

    2016 EU Ref voters – Leave

    Leave – 85.0%
    Remain – 8.7%
    Undecided – 6.0%

    2016 EU Ref voters – Remain

    Leave – 4.7%
    Remain – 92.4%
    Undecided – 2.9%

  33. From the BBC report on the Coul development:

    “”Maxine Smith, the committee’s chairwoman, said she believed that “on balance” the economic benefits of the golf course “outweighed the detrimental effects on ecology”.

    She said: “I studied everything and, whilst I appreciate that this will be detrimental to the flora and fauna on the dunes, I don’t think that outweighed the economic and social benefits this application will bring.

    “Tourism is massive in the Highlands and we need to encourage that and not turn it away.”

    IMO there are many more attractions in the far north than another golf course, and on balance tourists will be put off by the great amount of adverse publicity that will now result.

    An extra golf course will merely cause other courses to lose players. Two miles from Trump`s Menie course, another fairly new course closed down once Menie started. Near Banchory we have an 18-hole course reduced to 9-hole.

    Paul Lawrie`s proposed course at Blairs is at a standstill. Jack Nicklaus` course at Stonehaven is progressing very slowly, still being planned and nothing built.

    Near Coul, the Golspie course opposed the American billionaire`s planned new course, fearing it would cause them less patronage.

    It`s all very sad, and now the wife is grumbling about intensive pig farm management in the UK (a programme on BBC 2) that has sows brought to heat by a boar being put alongside, and then the two not allowed to mate. Is this another farming practice brought in from the US, she asks.

    I`m off to bed – we are losing the fight to have a fair society by pandering to millionaires and capitalists. Let`s hope there are some good plans to spoil Trump`s visit.

  34. We are asked to believe that ‘conservative social attitudes; are the main drivers of voting Brexit and that age and education are simply indicators of a world view. Clearly that’s possible as far as the statistics go. it is, however, also possible that these attitudes mediate the effect of education and age. It seems to me likely that a major driver of a Brexit vote was a negative view of immigration. This is reduced by education and enhanced among older people who look back to a golden age when it was not so prominent. However, a dislike of immigration also has other origins some of which are also linked to favouring the death penalty. The latter may operate as in indicator or a world view rather than a direct cause of a Brexit vote.

  35. @Catmanjeff that is interesting, I had expected May;s Brexit dividend to be a killer blow uniting the troops behind her. Instead the loyal Brexit press took to asking where the money was coming from. My impression from that and other things is that although people have not, except in rare instances, changed their minds, the leavers are much less optimistic than once they were. By a similar token they are more ready to accept a compromise, as witnessed by the surprising number from all camps who say they ‘don’t know’ when asked whether, for example, they would trade membership of the CU for loss if ability to make our own trade deals,

  36. Ian Sinclair,
    It might be the press are starting to hedge their bets. Even if Brexit stays popular, or popular amongst their readers, almost certainly a brexit bonus disappearing into thin air will not be popular with anyone. So even while still approving brexit, it would be sensible to be critical of unrealistic mathematics.

  37. ”Maxine Smith, the committee’s chairwoman!”

    And Leader of the SNP Group on HC!

    But as I said, it should be on the proposal and if the economic merits are greater then it might be a valid decision.

    However the planners weigh up economic and ecological factors and as I said when I was there they tended to get it right.

    Peter.

  38. @Peter Cairns SNP – your exposition of planning is all well and good, and very much fits with my experience in planning matters from both sides, but does rather miss the point.

    If Scotland can allow a development, which even it’s supporters accept will cause significant ecological damage to a site with international importance, all because there are supposed business opportunities to be gained, then there is something wrong with Scottish Planning law.

    I note the comments from Maxine Smith regarding tourism being ‘massive’ as well. She needs to extract her head from the sand and start to realise that all around the world communities are fighting to protect themselves from damaging tourism.

    North East Scotland really doesn’t need another golf course, and the record of failing to meet business expectations submitted in planning application in that part of the world is legendary. The balance given to environmental damage against economic gain is, in essence, a judgement call, and one that the council have clearly got wrong at Coul.

    The two most galling things for those of us who think Scotland is allowing it’s environment to be trashed for short term economic gain are that there is ample evidence already from previous gold course developments that the economic gains simply don’t stack up, and second, that if you really want to protect tourism long term, the first and foremost thing you do is protect the environment that attracts people in the first place.

  39. @” “on balance” the economic benefits of the golf course “outweighed the detrimental effects on ecology”.”

    Substitute any word you like for “golf course”-factory, housing, airport, marina, road, railway, mine, . Any word which describes an activity for sustaining the convenience of human lifestyle on this planet.

    And that “balance” will always have ecology on the wrong end of the see-saw.

    Eventually we will be able to say-there is no ecological effect, because their is nothing left to have an ecological effect on.

  40. The Airbus decision is predictable.

    Asking UK plc to spend the ” Transition” period waiting for a new trading relationship to be negotiated during it; rather than planning for a transition to it ,was always going to test the patience of prudent companies.

    I remember very clearly hearing TM say in HoC-in terms-that the Transition Period would not be used to negotiate the post Brexit arrangements.

    I am very surprised that more companies have not decided to make their own decision & plans.

  41. Colin,

    I think many companies have made plans but are not making them public. Airbus can because it does not have the prospect of a backlash from angry customers.

  42. ” “The senior detective in charge of investigating a doctor blamed for the deaths of up to 650 patients raised concerns about possible political interference in the decision not to bring criminal charges.
    Raymond Burt, who took charge of a second investigation into one patient’s death, said that he had been dissuaded from widening his inquiry into other deaths on several occasions and he had warned about political interference before the 2001 general election.”

    The Times 22/06/2018

    Here we go again.

  43. @Colin

    Many companies have made plans but don’t want to make them public as they don’t want their employees getting death threats from the Free Tommy Robinson brigade. Because like it or not, that’s where we are now.

  44. @Colin

    “Here we go again..”

    Am I right in thinking that these deaths at Gosport War Memorial Hospital began in 1989 and went on right through to 2000, therefore mainly taking place during the Thatcher and Major Governments?

    This timeline may be significant if the game becomes trying to allocate political culpability for any cover-up and/or failure of oversight.

  45. ON/Alec/Colin:

    Thank you for support on Coul, and the reasoned arguments.

    “”That balance will always have ecology at the wrong end of the see-saw”” I agree – we need to convince future generations otherwise.

    Peter SNP:

    Thank you for your personal rationale about making planning decisions, and your assessments on the Highland Council Planning Department`s judgements.

    I acknowledge I perhaps went too far in applying the word “wreckers” to an authority forced to make a hard decision on a narrow balance of subjective judgements.

    My view of John Swinney actually improved despite him deciding in favour of Trump on Menie, because he imposed conditions and restrictions, which have mostly been kept and saved us from a near-total loss of biodiversity. JS hadn`t the evidence back then to doubt some of Trump`s promises.

  46. @ Davwell

    My sympathies- and yes that’s where your energy should go as whatever energy you expend on Brexit will not make the slightest bit of difference. It seems to me from other stories over the years that the Scottish government is potentially much more receptive to public opinion than the UK government.

    “on balance the economic benefits of the golf course outweighed the detrimental effects on ecology”.

    I don’t see how this can be anything but subjective- there’s no online calculator for this sort of thing and my personal balance (one mozzie losing it’s life for a golf course being unacceptable) will be different to others.

    Tourism is a double edged sword anyway. As I said to Old Nat recently we are loving Scotland as a better alternative to the increasingly crowded Lake District even if it does take an extra hour or more. One day you might wake up and realise that what brought the tourists no longer exists… because of the tourists.

  47. CB11: “My hunch [is] that the leave vote is clinging limpet-like to the Tories.”

    Why should that be the case, when polling shows that the vast majority of them also feel the Tories are screwing up the Brexit negotiations?

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