This week’s YouGov poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 42%(nc), LAB 40%(+1), LDEM 9%(nc). Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday and changes are from last week. The two point lead is a little lower than YouGov have been showing of late, but nothing outside normal sample variation.

On the other regular YouGov trackers, 44% of people think that Britain was wrong to vote for Brexit, 43% think it was right. Just 22% of people think that the government are doing well at negotiating Bret, 62% think they are doing badly (including a majority of both Leavers and Remainers). While the poll was taken after the government’s announcement of extra funding for the NHS, it has unsurprisingly has little impact on which party people trust more on the issue – 34% of people think Labour would handle the NHS better, 24% think the Conservatives would. Full tabs are here.

While it’s not a particularly new poll (the fieldwork was conducted the weekend before last) there was also a newly published BMG poll yesterday. Topline figures there were CON 38%(-1), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 11%(+1). Changes are since early May. This is the only poll since mid-April to have shown Labour ahead. Full tabs are here.

UPDATE: A third poll out tonight. Survation have topline figures of CON 41%(nc), LAB 38%(-2), LDEM 7%(-2). Fieldwork was Tuesday to Thursday and changes are from the start of the month. The poll has some more questions on Brexit – full details are here.


1,218 Responses to “Latest YouGov and BMG voting intentions”

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  1. jonesinbangor: This is realignment of our place in Europe to an association, not Federal Union. It’s sensible and what the British people want.

    No, its barmy and it is completely untested against what the so-called British people want.

    Our place in Europe is not an association. That is not on offer. Our place is as a 3rd country.

  2. @ BigFatRon

    “Does the non-EU component/input and its tariff differential have to be tracked through the whole process?
    Or do we expect the EU to effectively relax tariffs on components or process inputs?”

    Yes it is a potential minefield that gets even more complex if there is some prior trading within the UK as well as manufacturing within the UK before final export to the EU.

    I don’t see how the EU would not need to insist on that value being taken into account and would in any event be subject to pretty easy fraud and/or huge swathes of bureaucracy especially for small business.

    It would be an absolute nightmare for the SME manufacturer I work for. Firstly although we obviously cost products we operate a standard cost rather than first in first out so we change the cost now and again in line with price changes but not on an immediate basis every time we have a price increase.

    We do buy from overseas but most small components from various UK suppliers (and maybe not the same one each time we order) who will be buying from a multitude of overseas companies. So we need to know from them where everything came from and If the origin of the goods changes we have no easy way of saying this final product contains this component from there and that one comes from here.

    Then we buy other manufactured stuff from other UK companies so we need to ask them “how much of the cost of your product is from overseas at a different tariff rate to the EU”. I doubt we have enough fields on our software to account for all of this or time to constantly update the numbers.

  3. Terry Pratchett has it right once more

    “‘A good plan isn’t one where someone wins, it’s where nobody thinks they’ve lost.’

  4. @Colin
    I think the issue is not about tariffs (although there are complications here in respect of components, which may derail the whole idea, see my previous post).

    It is that the UK will continue to be aligned with EU regulations in respect of goods and agriculture – this will preclude the UK agreeing to many of the requirements of the trading partners (e.g. USA) that we are seeking to reach an accommodation with.

    We are de facto aligned to the rules of the CU, even if we are not members of it – a classic May fudge!

    The ne0-lib, hard right dream of the JRM and Dyson faction to open up the UK as a low cost, low regulation, low tax off-shore haven is precluded by this deal.

    Which is a good thing IMHO, but presumably won’t please the ERM…

  5. WB61 – agree, thats a great phrase!

    As a follow-on to that comment, in terms of how this would impact the next GE, impossible to predict, but a solution similar to the chequers statement looks like being the least bad for Con.

    A hard brexit would have allientated huge chunks of voters, whilst those who wanted a hard brexit might not turn up at the GE given that what they wanted had been achieved…similar to how UKIP died post the referendum. No Brexit would have alienated the 52%, whilst chunks of the 48% wouldnt vote Con anyway.

  6. I am also reminded of the argument about taxes between the Patrician and the Wizards in Terry Pratchett’s Reaper man where the Patrician agrees that Wizards do not have to pay taxes but the Wizards agree its only right that they should make a charitable donation to city funds, which just happens to be the amount of tax they would be required to pay.

  7. Stephen Bush on whether Labour would be doing better if it opposed Brexit (he doesn’t think it would):

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/07/would-labour-be-ahead-polls-if-it-opposed-brexit

  8. “Terry Pratchett has it right once more

    “‘A good plan isn’t one where someone wins, it’s where nobody thinks they’ve lost.’”

    Doesn’t make it any less unsatisfactory for those of us who’ve been expecting this from the start!

    What an absolute waste of time and money.

  9. I agree with everyone that says this proposal is a non-starter. Richard North gives full details:

    http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86924

    Essentially the government are trying to extend the NI backstop to the whole of the UK but keep some freedom to diverge in areas not required by the GFA. There’s no possibility of this being accepted by the EU.

    We are no further forward on a Withdrawal Agreement.

  10. Also lots of people will feel like they have lost:
    – young people, like my kids, who really value the freedom to live and work in Europe
    – the hard right, who are seeing their one and only chance of a decisive shift to a full on low-tax, low-regulation economy snatched away
    – those who feel that immigration is ‘stealing British jobs’, assuming that the proposal holds that EU citizens who secure work in the UK are free to come and take it
    – the true Euro-enthusiasts, who buy into and value the European project and the way it enhances our influence in the world
    – people like James who think the whole two years has been a total waste of time, effort and money, distracting the country from addressing its real problems and solely to pander to the Tory right

    They are each a minority group, but between them they probably make up 40% or so of the electorate…

    There will be lots of people who are unhappy at this outcome, believe me.

  11. @TCO

    “No, its barmy and it is completely untested against what the so-called British people want.

    Our place in Europe is not an association. That is not on offer. Our place is as a 3rd country”

    The British people expect to see the Government negotiate a deal in our best interests.

    Leaving with no deal with WTO rules would leave us a third country, we need more than that, but not full Federalist membership.

  12. As this is a polling site, I’d just like to say that England’s performance in the World Cup is much more likely to affect polls in the short term than anything to do with Brexit.

    e.g. Good performance = all’s well with the world, therefore government approval goes up.

    On Brexit the public seem to have adopted a wait and see attitude. The polls have hardly moved in months despite a constant barrage of debate about the ins and outs of Brexit.

  13. Sorry to have given the wrong impression, the Terry Pratchett quote was directed at Theresa May’s manipulation of the cabinet.
    For my own part I am still of the view (which as a Remainer fills me with abiding sadness) is that this is still all about saving the Conservative party and nothing to do with saving the nation, and that it will be unacceptable to the EU. Being unacceptable it will mean it is too late for deal and we will crash out in March. I despair and try to lighten the mood with Pratchett.

  14. @JIB

    Leaving with no deal with WTO rules would leave us a third country, we need more than that, but not full Federalist membership.

    Pretty much what we had in the beginning considering our opt-outs.

  15. BFR

    “They are each a minority group, but between them they probably make up 40% or so of the electorate…”

    More like 70% I would say.

    In the latest Yougov the drift (within MoE of course) is from “right thing to do” to “don’t know”. I expect this drift to continue as people who voted Leave realise that whatever they expected is not going to happen… Already we have Farage and co. saying “there is no point leaving if that is what we are getting”. The voters may well say “Quite, lets not bother leaving”

  16. BigFatRon

    Agree that few will feel that they have ‘won’ (lots of people wanting soft brexit people now will actually have preferred to remain), lots will be somewhat unhappy…though by a soft brexit its in the middle of the spectrum for outcomes so not as bad as could be for anyone.

    Regarding your comment ‘young people, like my kids, who really value the freedom to live and work in Europe’ – we obviously need to see what the finer detail is and whether the EU accept it, but the chequers document includes the ability to study and work in the EU, and for EU citizens to do so in the UK…just that you’d need to take the time to apply for some sort of visa. Devil will be in the detail, but appears only thing that would be excluded would be ability to move somewhere without a job, or presumably financial means to support yourself….so I’m not sure its that bad an outcome for people who want the ability to live and work elsewhere.Certainly could have been far worse for them.

    Will be interesting to see whether opinion polls change. Gut feel is that Con VI might drop a little.

    Adam

  17. BigFatron: “Also lots of people will feel like they have lost:
    – young people, like my kids, who really value the freedom to live and work in Europe
    – the hard right, who are seeing their one and only chance of a decisive shift to a full on low-tax, low-regulation economy snatched away
    – those who feel that immigration is ‘stealing British jobs’, assuming that the proposal holds that EU citizens who secure work in the UK are free to come and take it
    – the true Euro-enthusiasts, who buy into and value the European project and the way it enhances our influence in the world
    – people like James who think the whole two years has been a total waste of time, effort and money, distracting the country from addressing its real problems and solely to pander to the Tory right”

    Of those, groups 1 & 4 will stick with the Labour Party they already voted for, and group 2 will stick with the Conservatives because they have nowhere else to go.

    Group 3 probably wouldn’t move over to Labour but might stop voting altogether (they are probably also the group most likely to be whittled down by the passage of time). Group 5 is the group that killed the Tories in 2017, they have nothing more to lose there, although this certainly isn’t the way to win them back.

    In summary – it might upset a lot of people, but mostly those people were never going to vote Tory anyway, and most of the upset Tory voters will stick with them for want of a better option. You can upset a lot of people and not suffer at the polls, provided you don’t put off the swing voters.

  18. @EOTW

    The public didn’t buy the opt out from ever closer Union, because we’ve had unconsented stealth Federalisation from day 1.

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