YouGov’s weekly poll for the Times is out tonight (Times report here). Topline voting intention figures are CON 42%(-2), LAB 39%(+2), LDEM 8%(nc), returning to more run-of-the-mill figures after the unusual seven point outlier last week. Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday.

Just 21% of people now think the government are handling Brexit negotiations well, 66% badly – the lowest net figure that YouGov have recorded so far on the question. The other regular Brexit tracker on whether it was the right or wrong decisions continues showed the now typical picture of slightly more people thinking it wrong (46%) than right (43%).

Despite disapproving of Brexit, people still don’t think it would be legitimate for Parliament to block it. While, by 40% to 37%, people think it would be acceptable for Parliament to reject the Brexit deal, by 49% to 39% they think it would be illegitimate for Parliament to block Brexit entirely.


730 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 42, LAB 39, LDEM 8”

1 13 14 15
  1. @CROSSBAT11

    May’s survival is dependent on 3 things, Brexit being unresolved in a manner whereby blame can be attributed to anyone in government or supportive of leave, Labour not crashing in the polls and more over no one really wanting the job because of the first two reasons.

    It was clear form the moment the June 9th came about, that the Tories are in keeping in power mode and essentially are stuck until something comes up.

    May success is that noone really want to be the one that basically bring it all down so hence the games.

    I fund Grieve situation something of the conundrum of all the political parties and even the electorate.

    We now have a plurality of people that think this brexit thing is a bad idea, however no one is brave enough to say OK let not stick a red hot poker up up our behinds because that say we were wrong so whilst we don’t think it is a good idea we think changing our minds about it is even worse.

    Dom was a microcosm the problem that the UK electorate has. we are screwed if we do an we are equally screwed if we don’t

    It is why I keep going on about Iraq. People keep forgetting there was a huge majority in favour of the war until it went bad. Yougov for example didn’t have a negative poll until crap well and truly hit the fan and now people don’t even remember that they were ever in favour of it .

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/03/remembering-iraq/

  2. JONESINBANGOR,

    “As Blair professed, the success of the Welsh language relies on three things;

    Education, Education, Education.”

    In Wales shouldn’t that be;

    Eddewkayshawn, Eddewkayshawn, Eddewkayshawn!

    Peter.

  3. Well the required legislation to action a hard Brexit is now in place, look for the ERG to move against May in the coming days and Bercow’s reign of terror to come to an end and be replaced by Speaker Mogg.

  4. Something that slipped under the radar yesterday – the European Parliament passed Article 13, touted in much of the press as a “ban on memes”. Here’s the lowdown:

    http://www.wired.co.uk/article/eu-meme-war-article-13-regulation

    General consensus is that this legislation tips too far in favour of copyright holders, who can use it to do all sorts of things copyright law was never meant for.

    Still, the EU seems to be the only government grappling with this stuff at all.

  5. Hal,

    I wasn’t ignoring you, I was in driving home after my last post and then back late.

    Re Single market, DUP etc.

    I don’t disagree that at some point there will be a choice to make but believe that can kicking is possible for another 2 years or so at least with the whole of the UK in effect remaining as parties to the SM throughout any transition period which I believe will be extended. As per Chris Riley the fudge may well take us through to the next GE when it will be a key issue.

    NB) The back-stop is just that and I expect that an Irish Sea Border will not be the solution offered by either Labour or Conservatives in the long run. The significance of the back-stop is that it makes UK ipso-facto being in a SM with the EU more difficult to avoid, even if the device is uber regularity alignment to assuage the ERG etc.

    FWIW, I believe that extended transition and fudge assists those wanting a closer relationship with the EU27 as UK demographic changes and an opportunity for some EU27 nuancing of free movement works in their favour. I believe some hard Brexiteers share this assessment and are pushing a ‘ get on with it’ line to avoid this.

  6. Jim Jam,

    Thanks – the problem I have with your scenario is imagining how we get a withdrawal agreement at all. It requires a massive climb-down by someone, at least one of:

    The DUP to accept special status for NI, Irish Sea border

    The government to govern without the DUP (how?) and accept the NI backstop

    The EU to extend its backstop offer (of CU and SM in goods) to the whole of the UK, (and the UK to accept it!)

    The EU to agree a backstop isn’t required

    The UK to stay in the SM, accepting ECJ, FoM

    Both sides to agree to a hard border in NI

    —–

    None of these are looking likely at the moment! Right on cue, the Guardian has some interesting speculation on what May thinks is the way forward. However it still isn’t looking politically possible to me.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/21/may-risks-row-with-brexiters-over-plan-for-single-market-for-goods

  7. @:Jim Jam – it’s got to be said – amongst all the endless speculation and high flying theoretical point scoring on UKPR, your analyses of where Brexit is and where it’s going are building up a remarkable degree of accuracy in a typically quiet and understated manner.

  8. @Polltroll – interested in the internet regulation thing. I note that the article 13 does say ‘appropriate and proportionate’, so much will fall on the legal interpretation on a case by case basis, but in general terms my inclination would be to support such a measure.

    I accept that people want the internet to be free and unregulated, but it can’t be, and while it seems a bit OTT to crack down on copying images for humorous memes, internet giants have made billions upon billions of profits by pretending they aren’t publishing outfits, refusing to take responsibilities for what they do.

    Something like this is definitely needed.

  9. COLIN
    “Javid steps in-again.”

    As in steps into the huge mountain of cr*p created entirely by his own side and tries to blame it on the EU?

    Perhaps it looked like a nice tempting pile of cake.

  10. Hal – As I understand it the back-stop only applies at the end of the full process, although it will be built in to the W.A, that absent a trade deal it will apply.

    As such transition lasting 2 years or more with arrangements very close to what we have now as full members keeps the back-stop possibility dormant for the time being.

    Slight caveat to earlier posts that we might end up with goods and services having different arrangements which in turn gives a pretext for some free movement wriggle room as the UK are not getting ‘all the benefits of the free market’.

    Thanks Alec – at the heart of my analysis is that, contrary to Danny whose view I respect but disagree with, the GE was called in an attempt to disarm the Hard Brexit element of the Tory party whilst adopting some ‘Non-Soft’ Brexit rhetoric to try to attract leave voters with that rheteric constraining the PM to an extent.

    I think enough Tory back-benchers believe this also and behind the scenes many are making clear but occasionally Grieve (impressive in my opinion) and some others feel the need to remind the PM publically; this group being joined by Lee recently convinces me of this even more.

    In essence Con Soft remain are sufficiently larger than Lab Hard Brexit to ease policy in that direction.

  11. Jim Jam,

    Yes, the backstop is dormant until the end of the transition period and free trade negotiations fail to solve the NI problem.

    The EU side think this is quite likely and the backstop will eventually become the permanent state. The UK government are keen to paint it as unlikely.

    However, whether the backstop will eventually be used or not is irrelevant. The point is it has to be agreed *now* and put into the withdrawal agreement. This is where a major climbdown is needed and I don’t see how it is going to happen.

  12. Alec: “Article 13 does say proportionate and appropriate, so much will fall on the legal interpretation in a case-by-case manner.”

    Oh great, a court case for every individual use of the Distracted Boyfriend meme.

    The whole problem with Article 13 is that the content it covers is so voluminous that it is light-years beyond what human regulation could manage. It’s one thing to expect Facebook to delete ISIS posts, but this would cover almost everything that people post anywhere online that isn’t plaintext. So any moderation would have to be automatic – and if you’re a UKPR user you know the problems with that! (No offence AW – you run this site excellently for a hobbyist.)

    And this is before we get into potential rule abuses – notably using specious claims under article 13 to remove things you don’t want others to see. Yes, the web needs regulation, but bad regulation is worse than none at all.

  13. Hal – we will see you may be right but if so some other construct will be found to take us in to transition for at least 2 years, I think 3 quite likely in the end regardless of DD’s ‘expected’ date victory.

    FWIW, I believe the battle over having a Customs Union with the EU, whether A CU or customs partnership or arrangement or whatever, has already been won and only Cons Hard Leave are preventing this being completely open.

    The next issue is Single Market access and what the UK and EU can agree to enable things to continue as close as possible to now without angering their stakeholders to such an extent to render undeliverable.
    This will be worked out during transition against a back-ground of a steady drift in UK public opinion in aggregate (my personal view) and helped along towards as close a position to now as practical by GFA considerations.

    If I may throw a political point in? This is the Starmer position if not Corbyns, although the latter knows most LP members and overwhelmingly his supporters in the party share this view and in fact many would go further, EEA, Second ref etc which are not possible this side of a GE and maybe even then.

  14. Colin – 6.42

    The right of an EU citizen to remain in the UK seems fairly clear. But what of the right of return to the UK after absence? The present proposals are clearly a nonsense.

    Let us suppose that my Italian wife receives permission to remain in the UK after Brexit. That seems to be more or less a done deal.

    But let is then suppose that either she or I receive a job offer elsewhere – let us say in the US – and we go there and stay for, say, six years. I would be able to return to the UK, but my Italian wife would not.

    Remind you at all of Trump’s (now reversed) immigration policy – breaking up families?

  15. Good morning all from a sunny Central London.

    You have to hand it to T.May and her Tory regime. Just when you think they have died they come back to life to fight another day.

    Lazarus May.

  16. JOHN B

    I don’t know-have you asked the Home Office?

  17. Deficit:-

    £bn.

    FY 17/18 £ 39.5 ( last forecast £ 45.2)
    FY 16/17 £ 45.7
    AprilMay 18/19 £ 11.8
    April/May 17/18 £ 16.0

    May 18/19 £ 5.0
    May 17/18 £ 7.0

    Total Debt May 2018 £ 1.8 trillion=85% X GDP

  18. JOHN B

    “Let us suppose that my Italian wife receives permission to remain in the UK after Brexit. That seems to be more or less a done deal.

    But let is then suppose that either she or I receive a job offer elsewhere – let us say in the US – and we go there and stay for, say, six years. I would be able to return to the UK, but my Italian wife would not”
    __________

    Very interesting scenario. My mammy is Italian and I think she would be very interested in this scenario, although she is a UK citizen now so probably not but it does show you some of the tricky aspects of Brexit and border controls.

  19. CMJ
    ‘I know that the headline VI for C2DE has swung from Lab to Con by about 4%. I’ve checked this with a rolling average, and also an EWMA, and both give a similar result.’

    I’d be interested if there is a house effect in this. Are BMJ for example sampling a different ‘type’ of C2DE to YouGov for example?

    Am I right in thinking Survation don’t use socioeconomic groups in this way?
    I didn’t see it in their tables.

  20. Jim Jam, Hal is correct. For there to be a transition, the WA has to be signed, which has to include a proposal for a backstop.

    Options as I see it:

    1) NI in CU and effectively SM, hard border in Irish Sea (UK climb down due to hard border)
    2) UK in CU and effectively SM, hard border in Irish Sea (UK climb down due to immigration)
    3) UK in CU and Goods only SM (EU climb down due to divisibility of 4 freedoms)
    4) Massive can of fudge kicked down the road (Eire and EU climb down as they want it resolving now)

    Someone has to give in a very big way. Frankly I’m worried.

  21. JIM JAM

    You’re probably right that DANNY’s theory was overoptimistic.

    What seems to be the current May position is simply kicking the can down the road, if necessary with extended transition, until the next GE looms.

    What Grieve’s pantomime has created is a situation where neither remainders nor leavers can stop the HMG plan, whatever it happens to be, short of losing an FTPA confidence vote.

    Somehow, I doubt that this was a coincidence.

  22. EOR

    Like you, I’m always dubious about “pride” questions, although “The Welsh language is something to be proud of” as a statement to agree/disagree with is probably better than something like “I am proud to be X”, when X is usually something outwith your control.

    There are more headline releases from the National Survey for Wales here –

    https://gov.wales/docs/statistics/2018/180620-national-survey-wales-2017-18-headline-results-en.pdf

    ONS explain their methodology here

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/surveys/informationforhouseholdsandindividuals/householdandindividualsurveys/nationalsurveyforwales

  23. B&B Fudge 2 imo but fudge will win the day as it suits both EU27 and UK to do so.

    In other words we can really leave in a way hard Brexiteers want until they come up with a workable solution, so called Max Fac, technology etc would take a few years to get fit for purpose.

    A summary of the WA agreement announcement to great fanfare will be along the lines of

    ” We have agreed to do x.y and z and have agreed to kick a huge can down the road for some more difficult matters and come up with some fancy language in the official text to obsfucate”

  24. Interesting article from Matt Singh on critical factors determining attitudes to Remain/Leave being primarily attitudinal.

    However education and age – two of the most important demographic variables – are no longer statistically significant once we account for social attitudes. In other words, the data suggests that someone’s age and education are only really relevant to the extent that they tell us something about that person’s broader worldview, which in turn helps explain their preference with regard to Britain’s place in or out of the EU.

    https://capx.co/two-years-after-the-brexit-vote-too-many-still-dont-get-why-the-uk-voted-leave/

  25. Alec,
    “I accept that people want the internet to be free and unregulated, but it can’t be”

    Why not. I mean really, why not? Copyright in particular is an outdated concept which has gone well beyond its original intent of giving the creator a reasonable return for their effort. Most revenue from copyright no longer goes back to the original creators, but ends up in the pockets of companies, many of whom never expected such windfall gains when they originally contracted artists, but copyright has extended and extended over the decades.

    ” internet giants have made billions upon billions of profits by pretending they aren’t publishing outfits, refusing to take responsibilities for what they do. ”

    Then tax those companies and use the proceeds to benefit society. They are not publishers, they are a forum for individuals to converse, just like a public street.

    Jim Jam,
    ” the GE was called in an attempt to disarm the Hard Brexit element of the Tory party”

    I really can’t agree. Tories fought on a hard Brexit manifesto. if that had been strongly endorsed then they would have had no choice but to follow it with an actual hard Brexit. The fact it was rejected is why they are now negotiating soft brexit.

    Colin,
    “AprilMay 18/19 £ 11.8
    April/May 17/18 £ 16.0”

    But as everyone including the government are well aware, this has been achieved by unacceptably starving the NHS (etc) of cash. Its easy to balance the books if you stop spending.

  26. oldnat,
    read the Matt Singh piece.

    “But being opposed to the death penalty makes you 15 points more likely to be a Remainer.”

    “The strongest Brexit predictor of all is whether or not someone thinks that immigration has been too high. Those who do are fully 42 percentage points likelier than those who don’t to have voted Leave.”

    I think he is on the side of arguing that age isnt really significant, it is just that the people who are old now happen to have a particular set of cultural values which inclined them towards leave. Where younger people have the same values, they too are leavers, and presumbly where other pensioners do not, they are remainers.

    He doesnt really discuss whether people’s outlook changes through life, but I think he is on the side that it doesnt. So we might indeed expect leavers to die out. At least until there is some change in national outlook so that the new generation of youngsters coming along is inclined to be leavers. Which might bring us to the question of why youth are now remainers, whereas 50 years ago they were leavers?

  27. Yougov

    Con 42 (-)
    Lab 40 (+1)
    LibD 9 (+1)

    Not much change in the headline. Since people have been referring to the C2DEs, Labour have a 4 point lead in this category in this poll

    Since last week’s events regarding Scotland we have not had a Scottish poll. The Scottish subsample in this poll is way too small to be reliable but for what its worth it shows SNP 35%, Lab 27%, Con 26%, Lib 10%. Obviously we would need a full Scottish poll to get a reliable picture, this subsample could be quite misleading etc etc…

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xi51ey4b6h/TimesResults_180619_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

  28. New thread

  29. “JOHN B

    I don’t know-have you asked the Home Office?”
    @colin June 21st, 2018 at 11:35 am

    Ah, a comedian. Didn’t the Windrush lot take the word of the HO?

1 13 14 15