A year since the election, we have two new GB voting intention polls (from YouGov and Survation) and a new Scottish poll (also from YouGov) today.

Looking at the YouGov/Times GB poll first, voting intentions are CON 44%(+2), LAB 37%(-2), LDEM 8%(-1). The seven point Conservative lead is the largest since the election but normal caveats apply – it is only one poll. Over the last two months YouGov have been showing a steady Conservative lead of around 4 or 5 points, so normal sample variation alone is enough to explain the occassional 7 point lead. Watch the trend, rather than getting excited over individual polls. Full tabs are here.

Survation‘s topline figures are CON 41%(nc), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1). Changes are since mid May. Like YouGov, Survation have shown a steady position for the last couple of months, but there’s an obvious contrast in terms of what that position is – YouGov have a steady small Tory lead, Survation are showing the parties steadily neck-and-neck. As I’ve said before, there’s not an obvious methodological reason for this (while Survation have a very distinct sampling approach to their phone polls, this is an online poll and their online polls use broadly similar methods to YouGov, ICM and other companies, so there’s no obvious reason for differing results). Full tabs for the Survation poll are here.

Meanwhile YouGov’s Scottish voting intentions are

Westminster: CON 27%(+4), LAB 23%(-5), LDEM 7%(+1), SNP 40%(+4)
Holyrood constituency: CON 27%(+1), LAB 22%(-1), LDEM 6%(-1), SNP 41%(+3)
Holyrood regional: CON 26%(+1), LAB 21%(-1), LDEM 7%(nc), SNP 32%(nc).

Changes here are since the previous Scottish YouGov poll, way back in January. There is very little movement in Holyrood support, but in Scotland the Conservatives have moved back into second place. Full tabs for the Scottish poll are here.


759 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Survation voting intentions”

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  1. David Herdson a conservative member , was one of the first to comment after canvassing that it was not going as predicted in the GE 2017.

    Many were in shock at his comment, and thought initially it had been hacked.

  2. Support for my 4:43pm (my rounding a little out, caveat these are single polls and its more about the bigger picture than the decimal places!)

    YG poll from 18-19April (the high of CON VI and CON lead!):
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/04xxn42p3e/TimesResults_170419_VI_Trackers_GE_W.pdf

    CON 48
    LAB 24
    LDEM 12
    UKIP 7

    UKIP having been 13 or so a month before and in 2015 GE

    Check the UKIP ‘loyalty’ (ie the Vote in 2015 column)
    CON 42
    LAB 7
    LDEM 3
    UKIP 47

    Roughly that was UKIP losing half their VI as soon as May called the GE. Some rounding aside that went close to 10:1 CON:LAB (I’ve picked just one poll but happy to say it was 7:1 if folks want to nit-pick, Corbyn-LAB had already ‘accepted’ the ref result as seen in the HoC vote to trigger A50)

    YG’s ‘final call’ poll from 5-7June:
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/niqhryglxx/TimesResults_FINAL%20CALL_GB_June2017_W.pdf

    CON 42
    LAB 35
    LDEM 10
    UKIP 5

    If you now look at the ‘loyalty’ of UKIP you’ll see:
    CON 44
    LAB 18
    LDEM 4
    UKIP 28

    You’ll need to back-test the actual GE results to guesstimate the actual ‘loyalty’ move that happened on the day. IMHO it ended up being around 7:2 across all seats on average. UKIP’s final vote share of 1.8% was 1/3ish of their final polling due to a/ them not standing in every seat, b/ some on the day tactical voting as they knew UKIP was a wasted vote.

    You can draw different conclusions about why UKIP’s ‘loyalty’ ended up moving from CON to a more split position:
    a/ With Brexit ‘settled’ did the ‘left’ side of UKIP go home to LAB?
    b/ Was UKIP partially always just a protest vote and in 2017 was Corbyn the protest vote?
    c/ other or mix of above?

    IMHO about the only thing you can say is that the ‘Leave’ side did not display much, if any, tactical voting. IMHO that was due to everyone expecting May to comfortably win but think what you like.

    P.S. You can do the same analysis for Greens (who also pulled a lot of candidates) or LDEM. In both cases you’ll see a much ‘smarter’ voter (in terms of using their tactical vote). IMHO the YG model managed to pick this up but I’m still somewhat confused why their model picked it up but others didn’t (luckily Richard, Dr.Mibbles and various LAB VI made UKPR very aware of the situation)

  3. @ JJ / BFR – “I agree with you that the centre leaning Tories have nowhere to go so are reluctantly staying in the Cons column; indeed this happened between 2015 and 2017.”

    I’m not sure about ‘nowhere to go’ or ‘reluctantly’ as May is much further to the ‘Centre’ than DC or folks before that but yes, you can certainly say most CON stayed loyal between 2015 and 2017 as the ‘flow’ (as seen in the ‘loyalty’ of 2015 vote versus 2017 VI) in-out of CON was small and roughly netted out.

    There was some ‘abstain’ evidence in the CON 2017 actual.
    My partisan bias makes me think that was ‘complacent’ CON but at a seat level you can also see it was a ‘rich retiree’ issue (LDEM winning Eastbourne, keeping North Norfolk and the general poor show of CON in London and drop in majority levels in S.East England)

    However, what you do highlight is whether or not Corbyn-LAB need to move to the Centre to entice the Centre voter? Does this risk losing their core voter?

  4. Somerjohn

    As another of the same ilk as Alec your post is typical of the nonsense promoted by the Remainers. You Remainers really are a pathetic bunch. My remarks were addressed ti him but could equally apply to you.

  5. @Somerjohn – I was considering a reply myself, but he’s too boring to bother about these days. Same old unpatriotic leaver nonsense.

  6. @TOH

    Oh, so you weren’t joking?

    In that case, I retract my congratulations upon your wry sense of humour. You really are what you appear. I can’t imagine what it must be like to harbour such antipathy towards those with different views.

  7. TOH

    “That’s just your opinion …… Your own posts are boring in the extreme, Remainer rubbish and undemocratic and unpatriotic as well.”

    That’s just your opinion.

    [This is not quite as complex as chess but it’s much less time consuming once you’ve grasped the technical details.]

  8. LASZLO

    @”Unless your proposition is mass extermination, you cannot hold them up.”

    Well even the architect of the largest influx believes now that you have to :-

    ” “If we fail to provide a common answer to questions of illegal migration, the foundations of the European Union will be called into question.
    “Action is really needed here.”

    Angela Merkel
    June 2018.

    When someone like Merkel talks of the risk to the “foundations” you know that there is a problem.

    No doubt the election results in Italy & Austria , not to mention Germany will have helped Merkel to understand what The People -even outside of Visegrad.-are thinking.

    And as a Leader in the “stable north” of the European Project she will no doubt have studied recent events & policy change in Denmark & will be following the Polling on Sweden’s upcoming General Election.

    There comes a point when just calling ordinary people racist zenophobes when they express concerns about the effects they perceive of large scale economic migration on their lives & societies becomes counter-productive -and terminal for political careers.

  9. This will be an iconic photo:-

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DfQqimAWkAInxzH.jpg:large

    Fill in the speech bubbles :-) :-) :-)

  10. Somerjohn

    “I can’t imagine what it must be like to harbour such antipathy towards those with different views.”

    That does not surprise me at all, I have no problem with people who voted remain but accept that we should leave the EU since there was a clear result in the referendum. They have different views to me but are both democratic and patriotic. It is those who wish to overturn the democratic vote of the people that I have nothing but contempt for.

    I suspect you would also not understand how proud to be British my wife and I felt today as we watched the Trooping of the Colour ceremony. A ceremony I have enjoyed for as long as I can remember. No doubt some here will find this view amusing, which says a great deal more about them than it does about me.

  11. Colin

    Excellent photo, I can think of lots to fill in the speech bubbles. :-)

  12. Crofty

    Have you actually got anything sensible to post to me?

  13. Colin

    You appear to have conflated illegal migration with legal migration or do you mean all migration is illegal?

  14. Somerjohn

    I have always felt strong antipathy to those who are unpatriotic and undemocratic.

    Crofty

    Have you actually got anything intelligent to say to me?

    Colin

    Very amusing.

  15. TOH: the people that I have nothing but contempt for.

    As I said: I can’t imagine what it must be like to harbour such antipathy towards those with different views.

    Bandying all those angry words around – pathetic, contempt, unpatriotic – is no substitute for reasoned argument, which you seem to have abandoned.

    It’s two year since the referendum. Since then, events have made clear that the easy, financially beneficial transformation that was promised, and on which many based their votes, was illusory.

    When the reality of a brexit deal becomes clearer, many may think, “that’s not what I voted for. I’ve been conned.”

    Your answer to them is: “tough. You had your vote and you can’t change your mind.”

    You call that the upholding of democracy, and those who would consult the people again unpatriotic and undemocratic.

    I’m not surprised you duck away from justifying your views.

  16. TOH’s preferred Brexit!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6WD7B_I_9c

    Peter.

  17. Having briefly taken the lead last autumn before falling back, Don’t Know is once again level with Theresa May:

    Best PM (YouGov):

    May 37%
    Corbyn 24%
    DK 37%

    A few observations:

    1) For all people have lauded Corbyn’s electoral exploits over the last year, on those figures, 13 points behind Mrs Fields-of-Wheat, I think it’s fair to say he is still a net liability for the Labour Party.

    2) The Tories are already comfortably ahead on leadership but can’t convert that into a convincing poll lead. This suggests that those Tories who think that all the party needs to do is find the right leader are mistaken.

    3) The longer this gap persists, the more likely it is that Theresa May will, contrary to received wisdom, remain PM for the whole parliamentary term and into the next GE.

    4) There is a small but significant chunk of the Tory vote who isn’t sure that Theresa May is a better leader than Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories will live or die on whether they can get such people to turn out for them.

  18. Interesting!

    Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
    2h
    2 hours ago
    More
    The @thesundaytimes has seen a huge cache of emails from Arron Banks and Andy Wigmore of http://Leave.EU to Russian officials. We also have interviews with both. This story is going to develop.

  19. Would it really matter, if Russia had affected the Brexit vote ?

    Tim [email protected]
    2h
    2 hours ago

    More
    The @thesundaytimes has seen a huge cache of emails from Arron Banks and Andy Wigmore of http://Leave.EU to Russian officials. We also have interviews with both. This story is going to develop

  20. From Guardian website re Opinium in the Observer

    In terms of overall voting intention, the Conservative lead has been cut to two points from the four-point lead it enjoyed last month. The Tories are on 42% of the vote, with Labour on 40%. The Liberal Democrats record 7% support.

  21. Looking back at polls in earlier Parliaments, I have noticed that back in March/April 1976 Labour enjoyed leads as high as 6% or 7% – ie 18 months into the October 1974 Parliament. That meant very little,however, as a predictor of the 1979 election outcome.

  22. If Russia had influenced the Brexit referendum result, would it make any difference to public opinion now ?

    Tim Shipman
    @ShippersUnbound
    2h
    2 hours ago

    More
    The @thesundaytimes has seen a huge cache of emails from Arron Banks and Andy Wigmore of http://Leave.EU to Russian officials. We also have interviews with both. This story is going to develop

  23. Is Andrew Adonis likely to be correct that the new Daily Mail editor is going to change papers stance on Brexit ?

    According to Andrew Adonis, he thinks the DM is going to say that Brexit is not in the UK’s interest.

    The Sunday Times is also starting to be critical of Brexit, with an article tomorrow about Russian interference in the 2016 referendum.

    Will most of the media start to campaign actively for a re-think on Brexit ?

  24. R Huckle: The Daily Mail is going to continue to support Brexit because papers in 2018 follow their readerships. If it U-turned on Brexit, it would see a 10% dip in sales overnight.

  25. TOH
    Don’t the Remainers who want to overturn the referendum get you down. Their arguments remind me of the oozelum bird, which as you know flies around in decreasing circles until it vanishes…

  26. @R Huckle

    If there is a campaign for a sensible Brexit, all the better.

    Interesting how JRM has been quite quiet lately?

    The Norway + model is the way forward in my view. The reality is that we can add the + plus bit unilaterally through subtle changes to welfare and health accessibility.

  27. TOH

    “Have you actually got anything sensible to post to me?”

    “Have you actually got anything intelligent to post to me?”

    ……………………………………………………………………………………………….

    Tell you what, you go first – without insults – and then I’ll chip in.

  28. If remain had won the referendum by less than 4%, few people believe that the leave side would have let it rest there, with a shrug of the shoulders and a phlegmatic “Oh well, it’s a fair cop.”

    One wonders if, in such circumstances, they would have been castigated for being undemocratic, unpatriotic etc., for continuing to fight for their personal beliefs.

    [Although one wouldn’t waste too much time in wondering.]

  29. TOH

    “I suspect you would also not understand how proud to be British my wife and I felt today as we watched the Trooping of the Colour ceremony. A ceremony I have enjoyed for as long as I can remember. No doubt some here will find this view amusing, which says a great deal more about them than it does about me.”

    I hope you were cheering on the British speedway team tonight as they were racing for the World Pairs Championship like I was. If you weren’t, I would consider you to be highly unpatriotic.

    You might find that amusing but that would say more about you than it does about me.

  30. @Crofty

    The UK was never going to be happy in a Federal EU.

    A 52-48 victory for Remain would have been a Pyrrhic victory in my view.

    My view is that we have an opportunity to settle our place in Europe now. Compromise, don’t burn bridges and pay whatever is due.

    I appreciate that NI and Scotland may wish for closer association, but I believe that is achievable in the future.

  31. Jonesinbangor,

    “My view is that we have an opportunity to settle our place in Europe now.”

    My view is that we have an outcome of accepting our place in Europe now!

    Leavers thought we would be setting our own course when it’s much more us being shoved down a particular route!

    Peter.

  32. Colin,

    Wide choice for what Merkel might say.

    Trump’s face and body language clearly say: “Because I can!”

    PHJ

  33. Polltroll @ 7:52pm

    Agree with your 1 and 2. 3 & 4 are only partly connected. More inclined to agree 4, not so sure on 3, as I think that one needs to understand the reasons behind 2.

  34. norbold

    “I hope you were cheering on the British speedway team tonight as they were racing for the World Pairs Championship like I was.”

    Blimey! If you were racing for the World Pairs Championship on your own that definitely says a lot about you.

    By the way, I was thinking that if the best example this country has of a right wing comedian is Jim Davidson that definitely says something about something.

  35. Jones in Bangor

    Your use of
    The UK was never going to be happy in a Federal EU
    and
    I appreciate that NI and Scotland may wish for closer association
    in the same post might suggest that you have a rather confused idea of what the UK of GB & NI consists of!

  36. OldNat

    Perhaps he meant “England will never be happy with other parts of the UK having a different opinion”

  37. Opinium have had the Lib Dem figure in each month so far this year as 6, 7, 6, 7, 6, 7. Anybody want to bet on 6 next month?

  38. @ Crofty

    “By the way, I was thinking that if the best example this country has of a right wing comedian is Jim Davidson that definitely says something about something.”

    Try Geoff Norcott:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p068ttmt

    Takes a bit of getting used to, but he’s not too bad. As he points out (regularly) himself, he is in a bit of a minority. Nevertheless, BBC have done their best to promote him on several programs, Radio and TV. Difficult to attain political balance on the comedy front however.

    Having said that, give me Alexie Sayle any day. His return to BBC radio was stunning. Still crazy (and very funny) after all these years.

  39. Baz in Wales

    In the deleted section of Revelations “6, 7, 6, 7, 6, 7” is the “mark of the beast that can’t quite decide whether its bipedal, quadrupedal, or an amoeba”.

  40. @Crofty – I must say how intelligent and sensible I have found your posts today.

    Best thing here since the last best thing,

  41. trigguy

    Very amusing but comes over more as a very cunning career choice/satire than a genuine Tory.

    “What d’you call two Liberals in a bath?” “All of them.” was v. good.

  42. @ Crofty

    You could be right there. And yes, that was definitely a (what I suppose we nowadays call) LOL moment for me.

  43. Crofty,

    “By the way, I was thinking that if the best example this country has of a right wing comedian is Jim Davidson that definitely says something about something.”

    If that’s the best they can do they really are finished.

    Peter.

  44. “ALEC
    @Crofty – I must say how intelligent and sensible I have found your posts today.

    Best thing here since the last best thing,”

    Well, that’s your opinion.

  45. TrigGuy

    I hope you are on commission for pushing Norcott. I suspect many on here, who have never heard of him before, listened to the broadcast, and will never hear of him again.

    Incidentally, he was more politically accurate than Crofty gave him credit for – he said “Liberal Democrat” not “Liberal”.

    Some decent material in there but, other than his declared stance (which might well be a career choice), it didn’t seem particularly polemical political humour.

  46. Geoff Norcott pretends to be right wing as a career choice.

    Simon Evans is a right wing comic and very, very funny indeed. Some of his soi-disant fellow travellers on here would not find him at all amusing though as he isn’t’ very tribal and is extremely savage about some of the hypocrisy of the Right.

  47. “Trump’s face and body language clearly say: “Because I can!””

    It will make a good pair with his face after the next round of US elections…. (or any time with Melania)

  48. Opinium have had the Lib Dem figure in each month so far this year as 6, 7, 6, 7, 6, 7. Anybody want to bet on 6 next month?

    I would bet on 7…. Especially if the money was going on 6….

  49. @Chris Riley

    “Simon Evans is a right wing comic and very, very funny indeed.”

    ——-

    It’s possible he parodies right wing views a bit. I’ve seen him live and have a signed copy of one of his CDs!

    (He didn’t ask to purchase anything of mine, but don’t let that put you off…)

  50. Classic Simon Evans

    https://youtu.be/Z0yXH3atUBA

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