A year since the election, we have two new GB voting intention polls (from YouGov and Survation) and a new Scottish poll (also from YouGov) today.

Looking at the YouGov/Times GB poll first, voting intentions are CON 44%(+2), LAB 37%(-2), LDEM 8%(-1). The seven point Conservative lead is the largest since the election but normal caveats apply – it is only one poll. Over the last two months YouGov have been showing a steady Conservative lead of around 4 or 5 points, so normal sample variation alone is enough to explain the occassional 7 point lead. Watch the trend, rather than getting excited over individual polls. Full tabs are here.

Survation‘s topline figures are CON 41%(nc), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1). Changes are since mid May. Like YouGov, Survation have shown a steady position for the last couple of months, but there’s an obvious contrast in terms of what that position is – YouGov have a steady small Tory lead, Survation are showing the parties steadily neck-and-neck. As I’ve said before, there’s not an obvious methodological reason for this (while Survation have a very distinct sampling approach to their phone polls, this is an online poll and their online polls use broadly similar methods to YouGov, ICM and other companies, so there’s no obvious reason for differing results). Full tabs for the Survation poll are here.

Meanwhile YouGov’s Scottish voting intentions are

Westminster: CON 27%(+4), LAB 23%(-5), LDEM 7%(+1), SNP 40%(+4)
Holyrood constituency: CON 27%(+1), LAB 22%(-1), LDEM 6%(-1), SNP 41%(+3)
Holyrood regional: CON 26%(+1), LAB 21%(-1), LDEM 7%(nc), SNP 32%(nc).

Changes here are since the previous Scottish YouGov poll, way back in January. There is very little movement in Holyrood support, but in Scotland the Conservatives have moved back into second place. Full tabs for the Scottish poll are here.


759 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Survation voting intentions”

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  1. Those Russians messing with this site!!

  2. Charles:

    I sympathise.

    I have had no problems here for 18 months or so, and only 3/4 deflections into moderation in that time. Once I guessed I had included too many links in a post – reducing them and a small change in wording succeeded.

    But in two other “sending” matters I have been very frustrated. 1) I can`t manage to successfully post plant records meantime, and 2) I have had repeated trouble with proving my identity for email.

    Every 14 days I get a message to prove my identity, having to press hash when my telephone rings. The recorded voice says successful, but it isn`t and then my email disappears. My work technical advisor couldn`t understand: “no one else has had this problem” . But he suggested changing the log-in tool, so that any hidden debarring code in my computer was bypassed.

    Now it`s my wife`s phone that rings, and my email returns immediately on her pressing hash.

    I suggest you try a different identity, or if possible could you use a different computer. For us not technically proficient, we just need solutions that work, not understanding why.

  3. “This old man is quite keen on its current usage in the Yes movement, which essentially concentrates on “who can tax you”, at what rates, for what purposes and to whose benefit; and is based on the concept that all who choose to live and work here are part of the “nation” (or state or country), regardless of where they originated.”
    @oldnat June 14th, 2018 at 1:50 pm

    Well, when this old(-er) man was young you had to get Magic Bus to travel round Europe. Now, for prices that are sometimes even cheaper (even before you adjust for inflation!!) you can simply fly there.[1] The young expect to be able to travel, whereas when I was young (60s/70s) what you can achieve now was just a pipedream, or at least exclusively for the rich. A massive difference from today.

    Plus you, like me, have had your life defined by what whas possible then. My point is we are 20 years or so into a change that has never been seen before. I suppose it is similar in scale to say 1850, when the railways had never existed. The world would never look back. So much change, so much more properity.

    The Internet is doing something similar. It is possible, for example, for a snotty-nosed kid sitting in his bedroom in, say, Laos (by which I mean anywhere) could create a company that takes on the mighty Microsoft. I mean, look at Linus Torvalds.[2]

    The Internet has democratised the world. And just to end by going off on a tangent — biosciences and genetics will probably explode soon in a similar way to the Internet. By which I mean there is a lot of ‘bedroom’ hacking going on:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Do-it-yourself_biology

    [1] A while back me and my lad flew to Spain and back for 40 quid (for two of us!!).

    [2] Maybe not snotty nosed, but he has a gob on him.

  4. I ought to add that I am logged into this site, and only every 2 or 3 weeks do I find I have become logged out, like when Windows 10 sends an update that needs a computer restart.

    But typing in my user name into the sign-in box immediately gets me back on board. I have noticed that during the time period when I am not signed-in, there`s no extra messages added to the board list.

  5. @ RJW – Not yet but hopefully soon. Also better if she falls on the sword rather than knifed ;)

  6. ECB announces tapering of Bond buying & cessation of new purchases by December. Its not clear whether they will hold the stock of QE by reinvesting maturities -like BoE; or run down the stock of QE by retaining redemptions like the Fed.

    Either way, the Era of Loose Monetary Policy is coming to an end on both sides of the Atlantic as Central Bankers hand the job of managing economic growth back to elected politicians & their Fiscal Policy-where it should be.

    Euro slumps as ECB gives no indication of interest rate increases.

    I wonder how this will impact the new Italian Government’s plans for increased debt sales -without the Willing Buyer in Frankfurt?

  7. @ TW

    I think you have misunderstood, amendment 19 is the one approved by the Lords in May, amendments 19A and 19B are proposed in lieu of amendment 19.

    It appears to me that Grieve has been very clever with 19A and particularly the following element, the House of Commons must approve the Withdrawal agreement, the H of L is only required to debate it within a specified period. But (d) requires an Act of Parliament (which must go through both houses) is passed: on the wording these requirements are cumulative and not alternatives, so whatever else Parliament must pass a further Act before any agreement can be ratified (huge opportunities for speeches on what would make the withdrawal agreement better),

    however none of that takes care of the issue of time running out on the article 50 notice.

  8. @TREVOR WARNE

    @ PTRP / PETER – the comments I posted were from OECD, not Trump, not a Putin Bot and not an Arch-Leaver!

    And yet the question remains the same. I can run faster than you I beat you every day we race everyone says wow you trained hard and sacrificed and you are winning. Now we on the other and don’t train at all we are down the pub and so what I think would be fair is that you don’t do that training and that sacrifice and stuff and hopefully we get to win sometime.

    If it is not Germany then it will be China, If not them then well let go for the Netherlands that have a bigger surplus with the rest of the EU than Germany.

    My point stands it does not matter if god almighty himself say you Germans are better than us we need you not to compete. What would you say if you were in their position.

    If you use that argument the UK should not have such a big surplus in services since after all it is what we are good at and it not fair…….

    The argument where ever it comes form a specious and stupid. You are asking the Germans and whom ever else you deem as being too good to let someone else win. That is the antithesis of free trade. As they say we need to man up and git gud…..

    Bitching and whining seems to be a thing kind of snowflakism. As I said Germany did not git gud by whining they had a plan and they executed mean while we have no plan and thus cannot execute.

    In simple terms when someone make something that Germans want to buy then I am sure they’ll buy it until then they’ll buy the thing that they need and not what Trump or you or me want them to buy.

  9. Al Urqa

    I’m not disagreeing with any of that [1].

    However, unless we end up with a single World (or Galactic) government imposing a single set of laws (within a single legal system) on the whole planet, then people are likely to want matters, in their bit of the world, run the way they want them to be.

    As in many political matters, there is very little difference between Davwel’s views (or yours, probably) and mine. Often, it comes down to semantics – and how words like “nationalism” are understood within particular contexts.

    [1] I’m not sure that “bedroom hacking” resulting in an explosion of genetics is a useful term for what was called “adultery” in my young day. :-) It’s always been the case that “only a wise man knows his own father”!

  10. ECB will reinvest QE redemptions to maintain stock-” for an extended period of time after the end of the net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.”

    So in terms of loosening Fed are in the lead , then BoE , then ECB.

  11. ECB will reinvest QE redemptions to maintain stock-” for an extended period of time after the end of the net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.”

    So in terms of loosening Fed are in the lead , then BoE , then ECB.

  12. As to the increase in SNP membership . As SNP
    membership is open to anybody in the U.K. is there anyway you can tell if the increase is from outraged Scots, or from outraged remainers south of the border.

  13. For those South of the Border who may not fully understand the significance of @oldnat’s reference to Murray Foote’s switch to support independence it is a bit like Paul Dacre suddenly announcing his support for remaining in the EU.

  14. Merkel beginning to face the reality of the last GE result.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1007251810292297728

  15. @oldnat

    Interesting that Mundell felt it expedient to make a statement on Brexit and devolution. I wonder if the Tory feedback from Scotland was indicating the bad consequences for them of the UK Government’s parliamentary antics? The Speaker has also granted a SNP request for an emergency debate on the subject on Monday so the SNP can keep the pot boiling.

  16. And to add to the indications of changing Scottish political weather is this article by Chris Deerin, no friend of the SNP and independence:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/06/brexit-britain-scots-are-starting-believe-independence-worth-risks

  17. Turk

    SNP membership is open to anyone in any country, as is the case for other parties too, so we don’t know how many are voters in Scotland.

    Not that this really matters. Most members of most parties aren’t activists.

  18. Hireton

    Mundell did it make it clear that, as far as the UK Government is concerned, Scotland isn’t a “partner” in the UK Union. It’s a “part”.

    As Alan Massie pointed out, while that’s technically true, it won’t do Mundell any good.

    It’s the direct opposite of the rhetoric used by the Tories and their pals in Better Together in 2014.

    More importantly, many Unionists in Scotland favour the Union because they have seen it as a “partnership”.

    No one ever thought Mundell was politically ept, but his statement was inept.

  19. Seeing a number of Unionists tweeting this

    “Research conducted three years ago by the University of Edinburgh’s Scottish Referendum Survey found that only 3.4 per cent said the offer of more powers for Holyrood was the main motivation in how they voted.”

    Another sign of the current situation is Kenny Farquharson’s response

    People RT’ing this in an attempt to play down importance of The Vow. In the context of victory dependent on a 5 point swing, this is a huge effect. Also, does not take into account people for whom The Vow was a factor, but not the main factor.

  20. @Rosieanddaisie – “Nothing to say anyway – it is just so tedious at the moment.”

    Sounds like you’ve been spending time with @TOH?

  21. May has apparently agreed to give the HoC a vote on final deal.

    So there will have to be a deal or a General Election I’m guessing?

    Interesting times.

  22. “[1] I’m not sure that “bedroom hacking” resulting in an explosion of genetics is a useful term for what was called “adultery” in my young day. :-) It’s always been the case that “only a wise man knows his own father”!”
    @oldnat June 14th, 2018 at 4:13 pm

    Brilliant. I didn’t expect that. I always enjoy your posts.

    And on the other topic, 5000 new SNP members — I didn’t expect that either. No wonder Ian Blackford was smiling.

  23. Lucid Talk data tables for the BBC’s project on identity and nationality in NI, now available.

    https://lucidtalk.co.uk/images/News/BBCYouGovProject-DataTableResults.pdf

  24. Alec

    I was writing on behalf of the girls who are now stuck into the world cup and have no interest at all in brexit.

    Daisie has just wuffed that Rosie is better at footy than Saudi Arabia and she has a point. Four legged skills and an amazingly good header, Rosie also reminds me of the legendary Leeds player – Norman “bite yer legs” Hunter.

    My wife has an allotment and the girls HATE it – so I doubt they would have a lot in common with TOH by the way.

  25. Oldnat

    Well it might matter to the SNP where there new members are coming from re the next Scottish elections regardless of whether there activists or not.
    I’m pretty sure you can’t vote in the Scottish elections if your resident in England.

  26. Re the SNP, I am now inclined to support their desire for independence. The way the Tories behave it’s as though they just want to be left with England. Maybe they do.

    Maybe they have plans to rename us “Great England”.

    Anyway, I was born in Cowdenbeath [so I was told] so I may learn to speak in the Jockstrapular and head back North. The girls can add a Mc to their wuffing and they’ll be fine.

  27. Seems that Dominic Grieve et al are suggesting that May has reneged on her promise re amendment.

    I don’t really understand the technicalities, but your rebels losing any remaining trust in your word seems an unwise strategy for May to adopt.

  28. Turk

    I expect you’re right and all the new members are English and just signed up for a laugh.

  29. Yougov/The times has last week’s changes reversed.

    Con 42 (-2)
    Lab 39 (+2)
    Libd 8 (-)

    Perhaps unsurprisingly, the net approval of handling of brexit is at a record low of -45. 21% approve, 66% disapprove. The right/wrong question has wrong leading by 3 (46 v 43)

  30. @Hireton – regarding Scotland, I think the highly cavalier attitude taken by the government towards Scotland, led by a party ostentatiously supporting the union, is sending a big message to Scots voters.

    Add this the general fear that Brexit is going to go wrong and Labour’s apparent failure to grasp what Scotland is looking for, I’m not surprised that independence in back on the cards.

    Indeed, the way this is panning out, I wouldn’t discount myself switching sides to back what could yet become the least worst option.

  31. @Alec

    Could foresee Jeremy Corbyn taking a very ambivalent standpoint if there were Indy Ref 2. Ruth Davidson to lead the No /Remain side?

  32. @oldnat

    Mundell should possibly have remembered what Theresa May said before the Indy Referendum:

    “A future in which Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England continue to flourish side-by-side as equal partners.”

  33. Ever helpful, here’s a useful link!

    https://join.snp.org/#/join

    Peter.

  34. @Oldnat – whatever May has signed up to, she’s lost the trust of the hard core of remainers. That really does seem to be a major mistake, and it seems likely that she will lose the next vote on this, and this time there is nothing she can say that will be believed to swing it.

  35. @alec

    Well, polling may tell us soon whether this froth or something more substantial.

    A number of points seem important to me when the next referendum takes place:

    1. another Project Fear won’t work as generally they are discredited and specifically Brexit underlines the risks of being in the Union.

    2. Polling has shown more people now believe independence will improve the economy rather than worsen it.

    3. Another Vow won’t work.

    2.

  36. @alec and @oldnat

    It seems that the UK Government’s new amendment was signed off by Brexiters and the Government is gambling on being able to face down enough Remain rebels to win.

  37. @Alec

    She’s just lied to an influential group of her own MPs and by extension another group of those MPs are more than ok with that.

    How on earth can we make deals with other countries when the Brexiteers are willing to lie and betray their own colleagues? There can be no trust.

    Is the complete, collective, entirely public destruction of the remaining reputation of Her Majesty’s Government really a price worth paying for anything?

    There was a time when at least you could expect the word of a Conservative to mean something, but those days have emphatically gone now.

    The party needs burning to the ground and either rebuilding or burying. It doesn’t operate on good faith any more.

  38. Con 42 (-2)
    Lab 39 (+2)
    Libd 8 (-)

    Can we now welcome YouGov back in from the cold? 7% Tory lead, my a*se, as Ricky Tomlinson might say!

    Methodology differences notwithstanding, there appears to be some convergence around a micro-Tory lead, probably sustained at present by the on-going Brexit monopoly of virtually all else in the body politic. The Tories are clearly the Brexit Party, UKIP et al, and however effective or not they are at negotiating our EU exit, or governing generally for that matter, the Leavers are betting the house on them for now.

    That makes sense, I guess, because if you want out of the EU, and you like your exit good and hard as Frankie Howard might say, then the Tories are the only show in town, even if a tight clothes peg is required for some. My sense is that, if you’re a Tory, then it might be case of enjoying this polling position while it lasts. This won’t be for long because Brexit, when it finally manifests itself in a form anyone can understand, is going to be pure poison for one or other element within the party. Some will swallow anything in return for a ministerial position and the good of the party, but there are opposing factions who just won’t wear whatever emerges. Red boxes and comfy Commons chairs won’t console them and the irreconcilable will not be reconciled.

    When that happens, all those who are in politics to keep the Tories out of power, and there are rather a lot of those people, albeit they resemble a herd of cats at times, better get their thinking caps on about how best to exploit it. Best not blow it, old chaps, because there’s a country slowly going to the dogs out there.

    :-)

  39. I have been quite amazed at the way Theresa May, who started the Parliament with next to b*gger all political capital, has made it last so long.

    It would appear that her tank has finally run dry regarding her Remain MPs now.

    Has she got any tricks left?

  40. I’m trying to find the Yougov tables (link in Yougov page is missing!).

    I want to check if the sub groups confirm the last YG was a bit of a random blip.

  41. Looks like we will find out whether TW’s commons arithmetic is correct.

  42. @EOTW

    I agree that minutae of this can be interesting but it will not make any difference.

    The current government has three problems

    1. How to make Brexit happen without split the party and losing
    2. How to make Brexit work without being blamed for any negative consequence
    3. What the hell is the story for the next election

    It is clear that the two major parties agree that have to bee seen to be doing Brexit. They also understand that Brexit where UK becomes a third country is unacceptable now for Labour they have a story for post brexit because they understand that in order to be successful we need a step change in investment in ourselves. My belief is Corbyn does not care about 1 and 2 but does care about 3.

    The real advantage for any opposition is they do not have to care about 1 and 2. They can be as cakey as they like because they are not doing the negotiation and have no real power (It has been made very clear that Labour lost the election by many commentators) My view is that Corbyn got lucky since It matter not what you want to do about brexit politically it pays to be a non committal as possible. Corbyn has been no committal and it has frustrated the hell out of TREVO0R WARNE since he want the battle between Labour and th e Tories over Brexit. The Labour leadership does not care about brexit. it is immaterial to their plans.

    So the problem for May is how to prolong this and be as non committal as Labour. This is what the dance is about. The electorate voted to leave and yes they can change their mind but no politician in their right mind wants to take on the poisoned chalice because it is a sh1t sandwich.

    Basically we will be negotiating with ourselves after we leave the EU officially and we will still not be sure not what we want but what wecan sell to the electorate. The problem is the electorate don’t really know what they want.

  43. EOTW

    It may come to bite her later on, as she won’t be able to play the “Trust me, we can negotiate a compromise” line ever again. I think right now May doesn’t care about “later on” and she is living day to day.

    Also there will be a member for Lewisham East at the next division.

  44. test

  45. Je suis tres flummoxed. How to become CROFTY again ????

    The girls are v cross at being involved.

    The scenes in the HoC when Tory MPs brayed “Bye” to the SNP [reminding me of Python’s caricatures of the upper class] should come back to haunt them come the next referendum.

    The worst of it is that so many of them seem to be little Englanders anyway and probably don’t give a toss.

  46. Crossbath

    Before you get to carried away with supposed Tory misfortunes on the horizon. It’s worth pointing out the equal mess the current Labour opposition is in over brexit as well and how any outcome other than a hard brexit could seriously effect there chances in the next GE in some of Labours leave seats.
    The other thing is that even if Corbyn wins the next GE the one thing the recent brexit votes have shown is there is still a large rump of Labour MP’s who would do anything to get rid of him, he will certainly struggle to push through his vision of a socialist utopia.
    We think of the current Tory party as being at war with itself but if Corbyn gets in the Tory party discourse will look like a tea party compared to the blood bath when socialists fall out.

  47. Re Scotland and votes:

    Explanation by Alistair Carmichael here:
    https://www.libdemvoice.org/alistair-carmichael-voting-for-what-the-snp-wanted-would-have-left-scotland-weaker-57790.html

    It seems things are not quite as straightforward as the SNP would have us believe.. But that most of the difficulty was caused by the precipitate and half-a*sed way in which the government curtailed debate and did not allow all the amendments to be debated or voted on. Personally, I apologise profusely to Scottish folk on here but there just are not enough hours in the day for me to get to grips with this issue.

    On the increase in SNP membership: The cautionary tale is that Lib Dem membership has doubled since 2015, with no increase whatsoever in votes.. This is because a bunch of people who would have voted Lib Dem anyway became a good deal more motivated because the Coalition was over and Clegg no longer Leader, and because of Brexit. I suspect the current spat may have an equally feeble medium term effect on the pretty clear opposition to Independence expressed in many polls…

  48. @Turk

    I think that whichever party was in government would be stuffed, as a ‘good Brexit’ looks to be impossible to me.

    No matter which way any leader twists or turns, the wishes of the broader electorate are simply too varied to nail down into a good Brexit deal.

    In this, parliament represents the public view – confused, baffled and without a clue how to make Brexit work.

    The reason for Mr Cameron’s chicken run rapid resignation is quite clear.

  49. CMJ

    It’s very clear why Cameron had to go, the Brexiteers wouldn’t have given him anywhere near this long before knifing him. If you are certain you are going to be knifed why wait for it?

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