A very quick post on two new voting intention polls this week. There was a new ComRes poll reported in the Daily Mail this morning that included voting intention figures of CON 41%(+1), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 7%(-2). Fieldwork was Wed-Thurs last week and changes are from the last ComRes poll at the end of April, which was also neck and neck. Tabs for the poll here.

Yesterday we got the weekly YouGov poll for the Times, which has topline figures of CON 42%(-1), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc). Fieldwork was Sunday to Monday, and changes are from last week. They don’t show any meaningful change and are in line with the four to five point Tory lead that YouGov have been showing in recent weeks. As well as YouGov’s other regular trackers, the poll also included a repeat questions last asked in March about how clear the public are about what the Conservative and Labour positions are on Brexit: 28% thought the Tory policy on Brexit was clear (down 2), 55% unclear (up 5); 15% thought Labour’s position on Brexit was clear (down 1), 61% unclear (up 1). Full tables for the YouGov poll are here.


1,629 Responses to “Latest ComRes and YouGov voting intention figures”

1 29 30 31 32 33
  1. I find it a very interesting sign of where Brexit has got to that HMG is tonight riven with splits regarding whether or not the UK proposal for the Irish backstop solution should have a legally defined time limit written into the text. There is no more argument about whether there is to be a backstop – only whether we can time limit it.

    Apparently this is now the issue over which ministers will resign. We heard this before over agreeing the payments, the timetable for starting trade talks, the strict time limit for the transition. and goodness knows what other red lines. Every time we are in the last ditch, but somehow they climb out of the last ditch and walk backwards to the next one. Bluster, through and through.

    The backstop won’t have a time limit – it can’t, because that wouldn’t be a backstop, and I doubt anyone will resign over this. It just shows how the steady capitulation of the hard line Brexiters is playing out when their dreams meet reality.

  2. @ ProfHoward

    Thanks for that, it makes me feel more hopeful. Schools can be a big influence. I remember an English Catholic school educated friend at Uni. When he first arrived, he found it amazing that so few of the rest of us went to a church of any description. He’d knew that people outside his small circle weren’t Catholic, but he hadn’t realised they weren’t anything at all.

    @ CB

    Re: DM
    “You either hated someone or something after you’d read it.”

    That’s a very good description. The few times I’ve gone anywhere near a DM article in the last few years, I’ve ended up hating someone – the journalist that wrote it.

  3. @Alec
    “It just shows how the steady capitulation of the hard line Brexiters is playing out when their dreams meet reality”

    Compromise. It was always going to be thus.

    In 10 years, we’ll wonder what all the fuss was about.

  4. @Peter Cairns

    I meant ‘Asian’ rather than ‘Arab’: hostility to Israel extends beyond the Middle East.

    More than half the immigrants to Israel in the late 40s and 50s (after the first wave of Holocaust survivors) came from the Middle East. Many came from countries occupied by the Axis powers and had experienced persecution by the Nazis or their allies, however many more came from countries like Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Egypt where there had been anti-semitic progroms prior to 1948, sometimes led by Nazi sympathisers.

    And I think there’s a crucial difference between arguing for ‘Regime Change’ as the US has done in Iraq, North Korea etc. and advocating the outright destruction of a state as Israle’s neighbours have done sine 1948. Iran and its allies don’t just want to get rid of Likud: they want to eradicate Israel.

    That’s why Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons is an unfortunate necessity.

  5. CB11, Dacre has realised Brexit is a shambles and will continue to be a shambles for years. Like a coward he is running before the chickens come home to roost.

  6. Apparently the crux is now whether the backstop itself should have a backstop.

  7. Prof Howard @ 11:39 pm

    A wonderfully incisive comment, Thankyou!

  8. “In 10 years, we’ll wonder what all the fuss was about.”
    @jonesinbangor June 6th, 2018 at 11:34 pm

    Indeed, as I hand over my 10 euro note to the barman for my half litre of beer.

  9. @CROSSBAT11

    I’m unconvinced that newspaper editors have a fraction of the political influence attributed to them, and continue to see them as basically marketing directors who are better or worse at identifying a product that their customers want, or indeed better or worse at identifying customers who want their product.

    To take a stark example, of the 50 biggest newspapers by circulation in the US 5 made no endorsement in the 2016 election and the other 45 endorsed against Trump in some way, but is there any evidence that made a difference to the race?

  10. JBOYD,

    “That’s why Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons is an unfortunate necessity.”

    No it isn’t, most of Europe rely on the US nuclear guarantee as do Japan and South Korea. It’s a choice, just like the UK having Trident.

    “And I think there’s a crucial difference between arguing for ‘Regime Change’ as the US has done in Iraq, North Korea etc. and advocating the outright destruction of a state as Israel’s neighbours have done sine 1948.”

    The Arabs have never accepted the annexation of what they see as their land so he destruction of Israel as a state is for them just restoring Palestine to it’s rightful owners.

    I don’t agree with them but I can’t see how that differs in it’s end result from the US wanting a united Korea.

    If unifying North and South doesn’t effectively mean the end of North Korea what does it mean.

    I’d like to see a democratic unified Korea, but I can understand why the North might want nuclear weapons to prevent it, but again that’s a choice not a necessity.

    “More than half the immigrants to Israel in the late 40s and 50s (after the first wave of Holocaust survivors) came from the Middle East.”

    Nice try but no figures, many did come from the Middle East, but not as many as from Europe since the turn of the century and they had less influence on it’s character.

    Peter.

  11. Israel could still kick Arab bottom even without nukes, but it’s better to have them to stop more wars in the region.

  12. Alec,
    ” Every time we are in the last ditch, but somehow they climb out of the last ditch and walk backwards to the next one.”

    just so. Which is why I keep arguing it is a totally phoney debate. They simply put up an argument in public to persuade leavers that they tried to maintain the red lines. Whereas they never had any intention of doing so.

    A decision to remain if possible was made long ago now, probably before giving notice to leave. Which simply signalled the start of the remain plan. No one with any sense would have given notice without a plan what to do next, so the plan must have been in place by then.

    An interesting question would be whether contingency plans to reverse a leave result had already been made before the referendum.

    Al Urqua,
    ” as I hand over my 10 euro note to the barman for my half litre of beer.”

    Brexit is making reunification of ireland more likely, and also unification of England into one european nation. It could be argued the tories understand this, and paradoxically this might be a reason for those opposed to the idea of a united europe to actually support a plan to remain a member of the EU now. Because being a member gives us a veto on changes we dont like.

  13. @Danny

    “An interesting question would be whether contingency plans to reverse a leave result had already been made before the referendum”

    I don’t think our government is competent enough to pull that off.

  14. When do you think May and Corbyn are going to hold a joint media statement, announcing a second EU referendum ?

    May has been trying to encourage Corbyn recently to confirm he is interested in a second referendum, but at the moment the politics are not right. Corbyn is waiting until EU talks have ground to a halt and there is no agreement on the way forward.

    At some point between July and September 2018, I think there will be talks between Tories, Labour and other Westminster parties on holding a second referendum. The referendum will be a choice between Brexit (outside EU single market/EU customs union with increased border requirements in Ireland) or remaining in the EU under existing terms.

    I don’t think a compromised Brexit where the UK leaves the EU but signs a deal with the EU to continue opting into most EU requirements ( border, single market etc) is going to be accepted by many Leave supporters. In particular an open ended deal, where a date cannot be put on when the UK becomes fully independent is unlikely to satisfy many.

    Which is why I think a second referendum is inevitable. The first referendum was not binding and not a decision on any form of Brexit, because voters did not have enough information. The second referendum will be a choice between independence and continued EU membership. Second time around, each side will be able to provide much more information about costs and benefits,

    And I think polling will show a demand for a second vote, even if it is not showing that at the moment.

  15. Planky,
    “I don’t think our government is competent enough to pull that off.”

    Methinks the lady doth protest too much. No government is as incompetent as this one pretends ro be.

    R Huckle,

    The last polling I saw said the UK does not accept any form of brexit with a cost. Hard Brexit is not viable. The current scrabbling by the government is intended to demonstrate they have explored all avenues, and the only deal on offer is a soft brexit one where we stay inside the CU/SM or something which amounts to the same. If there is a referendum it will therefore include this as an option. I expect the government will eventually have negotiated a soft brexit option.

    If there is a referendum, remain will also have to be a choice. Whether it is practical to have a three way choice including a hard brexit, I am not sure. Politicians would hate it, and all the fuss now is intended to convince hard brexiteers it isnt viable.

    The election we just had was already a referendum on hard brexit, and we know what happened.

  16. @ R HUCKLE
    “When do you think May and Corbyn are going to hold a joint media statement, announcing a second EU referendum ?”

    Never?

    There’s no need. We’re leaving, the result of the referendum will have been delivered, and that will be the spin;.

    It will effectively be a Norway+ model, with joint courts for disputes. Why we didn’t just rejoin EFTA I don’t know!

  17. “Plunging response rates to household surveys worry policymakers”

    Apparently people are fatigued by all the commercial marketing surveys and not answering Government economic surveys in large enough numbers any more.

    https://www.economist.com/international/2018/05/26/plunging-response-rates-to-household-surveys-worry-policymakers

    “ON A nippy January evening, Clare walks the streets of north London, armed with a file of addresses and maps. She wants to interview people for Britain’s Labour Force Survey (LFS), which is the basis for a host of important economic statistics including the unemployment rate. Her job, like that of many surveyors across the rich world, has been getting harder.”

    Which effect is surely affecting polling too…

  18. I’m pretty cynical about surveys and assume I am I either being “data farmed” or the results will be used to justify some sort outsourced “choice” or other rip off.

    Wouldn’t ever participate.

  19. Danny: this might be a reason for those opposed to the idea of a united europe to actually support a plan to remain a member of the EU now. Because being a member gives us a veto on changes we dont like.

    Very true. Fortunately, most brexiteers aren’t strategic thinkers. And it’s equally true that there might be a reason for those in favour of a united europe to support the plan to cease being a member of the EU now. Because that removes the biggest drag-anchor on progress towards unity.

    That’s why I’m personally relaxed about brexit. It’s quite possible that we will leave in a half-baked brexit that becomes a shambolic failure. EU members, their resolve strengthened by that awful example, make significant progress towards federation. England and Wales, by then abandoned by NI and Scotland, would have to decide whether to struggle on alone or rejoin a much more federal Europe (or might prefer, as I’ve suggested before, to become the 51st and 52nd United States).

    I suspect the brexiteers’ legacy will be very different from the one they once envisaged.

  20. I have been a political obsessive since the mid 1970s but realised just now that I hadn’t taken in what the backstop actually refers to, having just screened it out automatically along with all the other ridiculous and unworkable ideas the government has lobbed like supermarket trollies into the babbling Brook of Brexit over the last two years.

    It comes to something when even the likes of me can’t be bothered to try to follow it any more. I’m not only unclear at the moment which part of which plan DDavies is threatening to resign over, I can’t even get excited about the possibility of a high level scalp, since it would only be a blessed release for the man, who would probably enjoy being able to spend more time with his collection of glassware.

    Unless he had already been inspecting the contents of his cellar for evaporation prior to his speech yesterday, I don’t believe that even he really thinks that the EU’s position of wanting to know what our position might be about two weeks before talks start is that unreasonable. Even the PM programme yesterday seemed to be struggling to advance this part of the government’s message with any enthusiasm.

    Having had Starmer obfuscating over Labour’s deliberately vague BINO/remain as long as the leader doesn’t notice policy, May and DDavies only needed to do three things to keep this at the top of the news agenda for the day. Firstly, stop Boris from saying anything in public, second for May to answer a couple of predictable questions from the leader of the opposition at lunchtime without being seen to have failed to do so, and thirdly for DDavies to make an innocuous speech without throwing his bottles out of the vehicle of state.

    That they managed the first was something, I suppose.

    Still, at least they have the football coming up as a distraction shortly, although how they intend to celebrate an event in Putin’s Russia without being seen to celebrate Putin’s Russia when the PM can’t answer a question about when they intend to publish a document they have been talking about publishing imminently without collapsing to her knees in the style of Dame Edith Evans acting the breakdown scene in the play which can’t be named remains something I’m looking forward to watching. Unlike the football itself.

  21. A backstop is something which comes into effect when all else fails. Davis wants a backstop which will cease to exist after a short time, so a backstop which is not a backstop. I dont see any way the EU could accept that, which is probably Davis’ intention.

    It was May who intervened directly last time to agree the current backstop, when the official negotiating team, presumably led by Davis, failed to do so. I infer therefore this is not a new issue.

    I recall a year ago the government saying it could not discuss its negotiating position with the british people, because it would tip off the EU negotiators. Now we get invited to watch the cabinet rowing about what the UK position should be. It is a staged event to which we have been invited. They want us to know they cannot agree (though in reality they do).

  22. Iain Martin in The Times lays into May’s handling of Brexit.

    Disastrous.

    If DD walks she is sunk-and so are we.

  23. FRANCIS IRVING
    “Apparently people are fatigued by all the commercial marketing surveys and not answering Government economic surveys in large enough numbers any more.”

    That’s interesting. Purely anecdotally, I joined several on-line polling panels years ago and until about a year ago was making enough money through them to help with Christmas. Increasingly I then started being screened out of the vast majority, often quite a long time into the survey, sometimes at the very end, and quickly decided that I have better things to do with my time. The experience has left me disinclined to bother with the online marketing surveys, and at the same time reluctant to share my opinions commercially or otherwise without the small financial incentive I became used to enjoying.

    I honestly doubt that if someone came knocking on my door asking me to complete a survey, even a socially useful one, that I would bother without a fairly significant incentive, and probably not even then.

    Rather like the annual electoral canvas, knocking on the doors of people who aren’t going to vote anyway, or throwing away the gift of antibiotics, this seems symptomatic of “the market” failing to recognise any need for self-restraint, which is unsurprising since that is the nature of markets.

  24. COLIN, does he explain what May could’ve done differently?

  25. Colin,
    “If DD walks she is sunk-and so are we.”

    David Davis was given the job because it had to be a leaver placed in charge of negotiating leaving. If he resigns then it is a leaver admitting failure, which was the whole point of placing a leaver in the job, for leave to admit it cant be done.

  26. Colin, 8.38

    ‘Iain Martin in The Times lays into May’s handling of Brexit.
    Disastrous.
    If DD walks she is sunk-and so are we.’

    On the contrary: If DD walks and TM is thereby sunk (not an automatic result, I would opine) then the way is open for this disastrous policy of leaving the EU to be stopped before it does any more damage to the UK.
    Roll on DD’s exit!

  27. I think the easiest way to envisage what’s going on in government right now is to imagine two bald men fighting over a comb.

  28. @PeterCairns

    The Arab objective of achieving the destruction of Israel as a state involves the expulsion of the Jews from that territory and always has done; the USA does not seek the expulsion of the North Korean population from North Korea nor did it aim to end the existence of Iraq as a state.

    About 700,000 Jews migrated to Palestine from Europe between 1919 and 1948 (about half of these after partition). About 350,000 came from the Middle East during the same period.

    However between 1951 and 1970 immigration from the Middle East was higher than immigration from Europe and when differential birth rates and the pre-existing jewish population are taken into account, it is probably true that by the 70s, half of Israel’s jewish population were of Middle Eastern origin. However the figures are debateable not least because the definition of territories has varied. There was a change when the USSR collapsed (with huge immigration from Russia) and latterly with increased immigration from France.

  29. “If DD walks she is sunk-and so are we.”

    It depends who ‘we’ are defined as.

    As noted above, the sinking of May would offer a chance to reevaluate policy and gain an excuse for a major reset, that might involve widening the decision making nexus to include ‘we’ the people.

  30. Did anyone notice the arrival of the RAF’s first stealth fighters last night?

    Me neither.

  31. Danny

    I hope you are right that the Government’s seeming incompetence is all part of a cunning plan to keep us in the EU. Unfortunately I suspect they really are this incompetent – probably the best argument for staying in the EU as HMG are clearly incapable of arranging the proverbial party in a Pilsner factory never mind run a country. The un-elected mandarins of Brussels can hardly be any worse.

    Maybe that is the cunning plan.

  32. PETE

    Basically-take some decisions.

    DANNY

    I am familiar with-but do not share-your theory.

  33. Technical loss but moral victory in the Supreme Court ruling on NI abortion law:

    By a narrow majority of four to three, justices at the UK’s highest court said it had no jurisdiction to consider the latest legal challenge because there was no actual or potential victim of an unlawful act involved in the case.

    A majority of judges, however, went on to add that Northern Ireland’s abortion law was incompatible with the right to respect for private and family life as guaranteed by the European convention on human rights.

    Four of the seven justices – Lady Hale, Lord Mance, Lord Kerr and Lord Wilson – said it was incompatible in prohibiting abortion in cases of rape and incest. A fifth, Lady Black, said it was incompatible in cases of fatal foetal abnormality.

  34. Dacre running away. DD running away. We don’t hear much from Farage these days. It’s as if the rats are leaving the sinking ship of Brexit. I get the feeling, it’s so they can all claim if they were around Brexit would’ve been a success.

  35. @EOTW

    Oh, those guessing games on which NI tribe are you from? Tests applied in the following order:

    1. Name – can be a clincher but on the other hand plenty of cross-community first names and surnames
    2. Where you live – ditto
    3. The school you attended
    4. If all else fails, introduce some reference to “Stroke City” (where the BBC had to call the local radio station “Radio Foyle” to avoid choosing between “Derry” and “Londonderry”.

    I too was brought up an atheist, but like you a Protestant atheist. When I married someone who had been brought up a Catholic, my father was reconciled to it only because he was a German Catholic and not an Irish one.

    @SHEVII

    I left Northern Ireland in 1982, straight after I graduated, and have lived in England since then, mainly London, so can’t comment on the situation today there with any depth of knowledge. According to my family back there, I’ve gone rogue and am a bit of a blood traitor, having acquired Irish passports for me and my kids since the Brexit vote. My family is quite extreme, however (though they don’t vote DUP), so while my impression is that the two communities remain sharply divided I hope I’m wrong.

  36. Comment awaiting moderation and I think I’ve worked out why so will try again,

    @EOTW

    Oh, those guessing games on which NI tribe are you from? Tests applied in the following order:

    1. Name – can be a clincher but on the other hand plenty of cross-community first names and surnames
    2. Where you live – ditto
    3. The school you attended
    4. If all else fails, introduce some reference to “Stroke City” (where the BBC had to call the local radio station “Radio Foyle” to avoid choosing between “Derry” and “Londonderry”.

    I too was brought up an atheist, but like you a Protestant atheist. When I married someone who had been brought up a Catholic, my father was reconciled to it only because he was a German Catholic and not an Irish one.

    @SHEVII

    I left Northern Ireland in 1982, straight after I graduated, and have lived in England since then, mainly London, so can’t comment on the situation today there with any depth of knowledge. According to my family back there, I’ve gone r0gue and am a bit of a bl00d tra1t0r, having acquired Irish passports for me and my kids since the Brexit vote. My family is quite extr3me, however (though they don’t vote DUP), so while my impression is that the two communities remain sharply divided I hope I’m wrong.

  37. Thanks to those who posted about the politics of NI. I found the posts interesting to read although am not much the wiser to be honest.

    I think the point ProfHoward made which I think I could paraphrase as you want the toughest negotiators on your side made the most sense. But not so tough in the context of the UK parliament if they don’t show up and of course peace eludes a lot of places in the world because negotiators/attitudes are too rigid because of mistrust.

    It’s never too good to form an opinion on the basis of a “tourist” but when I went to Belfast in the mid 1980’s which I guess was during the troubles (although don’t remember at the time being especially nervous so maybe a quiet period or just youthful ignorance) but the people I met there all seemed as friendly as anywhere else and I didn’t detect any undercurrents. I kind of took that to suggest your average voter wasn’t that motivated by sectarianism but maybe I’m wrong.

  38. I understand David Davis wants to resign.

    He’s just trying to negotiate retaining a ministerial salary and his ministerial car after he goes. Just because he’s quitting doesn’t mean he should lose any benefits. There’s no reason why resigning should make himself any poorer.

    Resigning means Resigning.

  39. @Alan – is he arguing to keep his benefits under a time limited arrangement?

  40. Flying a kite/theory alert!

    As a recently retired citizen/old codger (take your pick), freed from 41 years of servitude in the British car industry, and now with far too much idle time on his hands, I thought I’d share my musings on the current political scene. I may continue to do this quite regularly for now, much to the consternation of some regular UKPR posters, I suspect, and maybe the good Mr Wells too! His forbearance will again be sorely tempted.

    Firstly, and this is laced with anecdote, some reflections on the state of the nation. I have just returned from a week or so in France, convalescing from Villa’s latest Wembley capitulation and spending some glorious time with old friends, now domiciled in Australia, in deepest rural France, just north of the Dordogne region and near enough to the Bordeaux region to sample many of their superb wines. Bliss it was to be there and I can see the attractions it offers people like Nigel Lawson. As a EU infested hellhole, it appeared to be doing OK I thought. Of course, the public sector strikes were still in full swing in France, particularly effecting the railways and we did have to change some of our travel itinerary accordingly. That said, the state-owned SNCF couldn’t have been more helpful, allocating us alternative trains, times and dates at no extra cost, quickly and efficiently. When we got on the trains we found them to be modern, quick, cheap, clean, punctual and with superb catering facilities on board. A glass of wine, a fresh sandwich and a great view of the French landscape as it sped past from the window of our two tier carriage was a rail experience from another world. Here’s the anecdote, though. When we crossed the channel back to Britain, we plunged into transport chaos. Our train from London to Birmingham (2.5 hours to cover 100 miles after we’d been on a train in France that covered 420 in less than 4 hours) terminated at Northampton because of a broken down freight train that had blocked the line further north. Our alternative train taking us down to Milton Keynes to get on another line then got delayed in Northampton because a member of the crew was prevented from joining up by the aforementioned stuck freight train. Ludicrous and comical mis-communications came one after another and we eventually got home 4 hours late on a variety of slow, standing-room only trains offering no catering, not even a cup of coffee.. The contrast with our experience in France earlier in the day could not have been starker and the only thing to admire was the stoicism and tolerance of our fellow travellers, many of whom missed connecting trains/buses and were looking at the prospect of not getting home at all that evening. Maybe we’re all just getting used to such laughable incompetence. Exasperated resignation was the overriding emotion I witnessed, not anger. Chris Grayling might not have gone down well, though, had he made an appearance!

    As I said, this is anecdotal, but when you see the chaos in other parts of our transport system, the rise in violent crime across the country, the still stalling economy, the NHS problems,the rise in fuel costs that will feed into rising prices elsewhere, the on-going Brexit shambles, the housing crisis and the proliferation of insecure and low-waged work, it is indeed extraordinary that we aren’t starting to see by now the governing party suffer more in the court of public opinion. There is mounting evidence, and I hesitate to use cliches like “Broken Britain”, that we are a poorly governed country, so why aren’t the polls reflecting this?

    I think two things may be going on here. “Stop Corbyn” still has resonance and I think this is stiffening up the Tory vote, but I think also, for now, the Tories are benefiting from the Brexit phoney war. The polls suggest that the electorate isn’t impressed with how the Government is conducting the negotiations, but we’re still at a stage where nothing has been agreed and politicians can still deal, semi-credibly, in empty platitudes. While the Tories can continue with this, and the clock is ticking loudly, then the Leave vote will stick with them, I suspect, deprived as they are of any UKIP alternative.

    So, the irony for me is this. The poisoned Brexit chalice that I think will eventually scupper this Government, and probably the Tory Party too, is temporarily providing short term polling balm. A drink with nectar at the top but much poison at the bottom.

  41. Alec

    Obviously they have to be both time limited while retaining the benefits indefinitely

  42. Live politics more interesting but 2c on the Opinium poll that tried to look at public’s view on exit scenarios.

    As they say (p8):
    “Taking complex situations and distilling them into survey questions that a normal person can answer is a constant challenge for public opinion researchers”

    However, when they say:
    “‘we have tried to use a ‘reality-first’ approach, avoid outcomes which are unrealistic or farfetched, and specifically avoiding any mention of the word ‘cake’”

    You do have to look at their 6 scenarios and feel some bias in the cake v crumbs of the options shown.

    Despite finding that:
    “The two top factors that participants tell us need to happen are for Britain to be able to make independent trade deals after Brexit and to be able to restrict the number of immigrants coming to the UK from EU countries”

    Independent trade deals are then totally ignored in the 6 scenarios!! The “Trade” section only covering trade with EU. Clearly the ability to do worthwhile trade deals away from EU is important as their findings found so why was it not worthy of placing in the scenarios?!?

    The political reality of the options is briefly mentioned but given the EC are unlikely to budge on NI and in their eyes (and despite it’s low priority for UK electorate) we’re most likely to get #3 BINO or #6 WTO.

    #3 BINO was net -11
    #6 WTO was net -11

    Therefore between the two most politically plausible outcomes it is certainly a case of which is “least bad”!

    Obviously my bias would suggest to me the exclusion of trade deals with rWorld damaged the score for WTO v BINO but live events suggest we’ll get to narrow down the Brexit options soon.

    http://opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Which-way-to-the-Brexit-FINAL.pdf

    P.S. It was a good poll though. Lots of interesting info just not sure it really tells us much.

  43. CB – I referred to your fuel price/poll ideas yesterday which your skim catching up would have missed understandably.

  44. P.P.S. One of the very interesting findings was:

    “it is remarkable that public perceptions of international trade are still based on more traditional ideas of manufactured goods and raw materials.”

    This is the PR disaster of Leave from pre-ref campaign to now. Folks have no idea about the trade balances of goods v services and EU v rWorld and hence totally undervalue the importance of services to UK economy (both domestic and exports) and the need to focus on rWorld and break the protectionist-exploitation of the CU.

    Quite shocking IMHO given the focus on economic impact. Especially shocking is the youth desire to Remain. You would expect older voters to have “more traditional ideas”, not young voters!

  45. TW

    Depends how far back you think ‘traditional’ goes.

    For those who consider the 1950’s (or 1850s in some cases) as traditional you can understand why they don’t like this new fangled Europe Club thingy.

  46. As for the trade war I see Juncker decided he would “also do stupid” and the next stage of escalation is back with Trump.

    I’m stunned to read that Jyrki Katainen, the commission’s vice-president for jobs thinks:
    “It is difficult to assess what President Trump will decide to do next”

    Really!?!?

    Well how about pork-barrel help for states “hit” (US is a transfer union) and US retaliation hitting EU (and Canada, Mexico) exports on cars (which is important to UK while we’re stuck in EU) – what he wanted to hit all along.

    “national security” interests was highly tenuous for steel and aluminum but EU are playing right into Trump’s hand.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/06/eu-tariffs-us-imports-july-steel-aluminium

  47. @ ALAN – ?? The poll comment on “traditional ideas” was specific about trade. Leave being less “traditionally” focussed as they are probably more aware of the actual trade situation (monster trade deficit in goods with EU but trade surpluses in services and with rWorld).

    If young Remain want to stay stuck in a CU without any deal on services and with limited ability to do any worthwhile new trade deals with rWorld (which is growing much faster than EU) then they’ll have to longest to live to regret that decision. Good luck competing with E.Europe on wages!

  48. @Jim Jam

    “CB – I referred to your fuel price/poll ideas yesterday which your skim catching up would have missed understandably.”

    Apologies, I missed it, although I have only just got back into the swing of things after a very hectic two weeks away. Can’t quite believe we’re still on the same thread on UKPR as we were when I headed down to London over two weeks ago!! Do you think Anthony has lost interest? He could be forgiven for doing so, I have to say.

    Anyway, a retrospective thank you for plugging my fuel price obsession! I recall the impact the price hike had in the Blair years, temporarily taking him behind in the polls for the first time in 7 years. It may have lost a bit of political resonance now, and the Countryside Alliance/Haulage Company/ Right wing Press lobbyists seem a little more tolerant of high fuel prices under Tory governments than they did under Labour ones, but I still think it’s one of those issues that goes to the heart of whether people feel content or not. A totem consumer issue that spills into politics and may make voters want to kick their government.

    As one of the UKPR posters I always seek out when I scan a thread, I’d be interested in your views on the Corbyn factor. I think he may be helping the Tories at present, but he’s an interesting double-edged sword, isn’t he? Who’d have thought that a patently Socialist Labour leader could have taken Labour to a 40% vote share in a GE and then keep them there, consistently, in the polls ever since. He enthuses and alienates in equal measure, but I know lots of Tories of my acquaintance who can’t fathom it all and are thoroughly spooked by his continuing appeal.

    I am a little too. The fathoming bit, not the spooking!

  49. “The referendum will be a choice between Brexit (outside EU single market/EU customs union with increased border requirements in Ireland) or remaining in the EU under existing terms.”
    @R Huckle June 7th, 2018 at 7:15 am

    I can’t see this happening. If you get a close win for Remain, Leavers are just going to moan that it’s the EU’s standard approach to referendums. ‘See, we told you so!’

    If it’s another close win for Leavers they are going to say ‘what a waste of money, JUST GET ON WITH IT!!!’

    And of course none of this is addressing many people’s grievances in the provinces that so many people now have little money. Last Sunday’s Westminster Hour on R4 had a retail guy on who, when asked what was the problem in these provincial towns, simply said there’s no money.

    Even Poundland is closing down!

    But nobody seems to want to address that issue because the real answer means taking money off those that have some to give to those that don’t. The politics of redistribution is far too toxic for anyone to poke a stick at it. So the decline in so many parts of the country continues.

  50. @jonesinbangor: “@Alec: “It just shows how the steady capitulation of the hard line Brexiters is playing out when their dreams meet reality”
    Compromise. It was always going to be thus.”

    I think Mr Jones is wrong in that there has been no compromise only capitulation. The EU have no proposals which do not involve the continuation of its authority or a termination of relationships. The EU has boasted that it has won everything so far, and it is right.

    But Alec is wrong it thinks that the negotiations are a failure by Brexiters. It has been as if a minority SNP government won an independence vote, only to have an unreconciled Unionist majority in Holyrood cheering on a hardline Westminster approach.

    The reality, I will admit, that the government has met is facing a powerful opponent who sees no need to negotiate, whilst Parliament basically agrees with the EU.

    So, Brexit must fail because the EU in alliance with supporters in the Commons control the negotiations.

    There is nothing the EU wants from the negotiations that the Commons won’t give it for free.

1 29 30 31 32 33