A very quick post on two new voting intention polls this week. There was a new ComRes poll reported in the Daily Mail this morning that included voting intention figures of CON 41%(+1), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 7%(-2). Fieldwork was Wed-Thurs last week and changes are from the last ComRes poll at the end of April, which was also neck and neck. Tabs for the poll here.

Yesterday we got the weekly YouGov poll for the Times, which has topline figures of CON 42%(-1), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc). Fieldwork was Sunday to Monday, and changes are from last week. They don’t show any meaningful change and are in line with the four to five point Tory lead that YouGov have been showing in recent weeks. As well as YouGov’s other regular trackers, the poll also included a repeat questions last asked in March about how clear the public are about what the Conservative and Labour positions are on Brexit: 28% thought the Tory policy on Brexit was clear (down 2), 55% unclear (up 5); 15% thought Labour’s position on Brexit was clear (down 1), 61% unclear (up 1). Full tables for the YouGov poll are here.


1,629 Responses to “Latest ComRes and YouGov voting intention figures”

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  1. @ Polltroll

    “The difference between Labour anti-Semitism & Conservative Islamophobia is that, while there are individual bigots within the Conservative Party who ought to be suspended or banned, there are not, as yet, groups analogous to Jewish Voice for Labour/Labour Against the Witch-Hunt. Islamophobia within the Conservative Party is not organised.”

    Eh? You will have to explain more clearly. Are you saying because some Jewish Labour supporters (however marginal they might be to the main Jewish community) are anti semitic? And being against a witch hunt (if they believe there to be a witch hunt) is anti semitic in itself?

    In any event you don’t really need an organised Tory group to defend racism if appropriate action is not taken anyway.

  2. Being cogent provocative and entertaining at the same time would be some achievement.

    Perhaps only possible for Grammar School educated types?

  3. Maybe Mrs May will meet the wrong type of Muslims?

  4. JIM jAM

    @”Perhaps only possible for Grammar School educated types?”

    Well Remainer “educated types” certainly.

    ps that was “provocative” mode.

  5. Colin: It would help in future if you could just say which of your three modes the post in question is written in.

    Until I saw Jim Jam had beaten me to it, I was on the point of posting a reply to the effect that we remainers believe it’s possible to be cogent, entertaining and a little provocative, all at the same time. Perhaps that’s hard for some to imagine., which brings to mind Lyndon B Johnson ‘s remark of Gerald Ford that “He can’t fart and chew gum at the same time.”

    But anyway, I see you’re eschewing all of these and sticking to baffling mode. I’ve been through all my posts today and can’t see anything that merits your ” thanks for that clarification which allows me to ignore your characterisation of how I see UK after Brexit.” I’ve done no such thing as characterise your view of the UK after Brexit. I have only the vaguest idea of what that could be (hard times but pluck will prevail, perhaps?) Care to elucidate?

  6. I can’t remember if this Pew Research Centre poll from last year have come up. Still, it is quite interesting in terms of attitudes.

    http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2018/05/24143010/Being-Christian-in-Western-Europe-FOR-WEB1.pdf

  7. @ LASZLO – could you explain why my moral argument against FoM is false? The left is quite split on the issue but the TUAEU sum up the anti-EU side:
    “But then the biggest illusion of all, the ‘freedom’ of labour…was a deliberate move to deplete the economies of the east of the continent of skills and youth and undermine social provisions and communities in the west… that the needs of transnational businesses shifting production to the areas of least resistance and trade union organisation would trump national collective bargaining and workers’ protections

    A central right of any worker is to be able to prosper and grow in the land of their birth and to have meaningful, gainful and enjoyable employment”

    I think SJ and the two of us discussed the case of JLR opening a supposedly non-viable!?!? plant in Slovakia which adding the other dimension of leaving the SM aspect which precludes the UK from offering larger amounts of state-aid as we’re not as “poor” as the new member countries.

    If that isn’t designed to suit capitalists then please correct my supposedly false moral argument from a “left” perspective

    http://www.tuaeu.co.uk/free-to-be-exploited/

    @ DANNY – the markets are pretty jumpy and as someone who lives, works and pays tax in the UK I have to earn a living! Also the weather in Norfolk has been pants and Project Fear 2.0 is about to get going, US-EU trade war about to start (assuming Juncker+co also “do stupid”), etc.

  8. trevor warne,
    yes I noticed the escalating trade war. Fine time to be thinking of a new US trade deal.

    What i also noticed was a well publicised pantomime of conservative MPs visiting the PM today to talk about what sort of Brexit we should have.

    I assume MPs are capable of talking to each other in private without the press being notified, so I also assume the press were called specially to watch. It is plainly a publicity exercise to demonstrate….what?

    What does it seek to show? It seeks to publicise that the tories are working hard on brexit, but may not be able to be quite so hard as once billed. It id the fact of this being a PR exercise which is most obvious, rather than it being a process of policy formation. And then, what is it publicising? That May has no chocie but to go soft Brexit?

  9. SOMERJOHN

    Not really Old Bean-it will just result in a syntactic black hole of Carfewsian proportions, into which we will both disappear.

    Will get back to my book I think.

  10. @ ALEC – I’m guessing you’ve been busy so I’ll save you the 30secs on google.

    OBR (the lily pad you tried to hop back on to) for the -3.6% Project Fear 1.0 immediate impact.

    “..it is not for us to judge at this stage what the impact of ‘Brexit’ might be on the economy and the public finances”

    http://obr.uk/box/external-analysis-of-brexit-risks-and-uncertainties/

    I think last time you were on this lily pad I sent you this bit:
    “Our forecasts must be prepared on the basis of current government policy. Before the EU referendum, that policy was to remain in the EU, so that was the basis for our March 2016 forecast.”

    They do discuss what other people thought about the immediate impact of Brexit and offer a nice little summary of some of the groupthink that was occurring at the time.
    The art of economist groupthink is to have a subtle, novel difference to the consensus but basically agree on the consensus – folks tend to spot perfect plagiarism!

    The one and only notable input from OBR that i can remember was their convenient timing of changing their productivity forecasts. Having been wrong for several years they conveniently chose post ref Brexit as an opportunity to use a “rear view mirror” for forward forecasting. I’m sure the timing was purely coincidental ;)

  11. @ DANNY – If the US-EU trade war escalates then it does IMHO show it is a bad time to be part of the EU but we each have our bias ;)

    It comes down to whether or not Juncker can “do stupid” (as he and the French have said they will).

    IMHO Trump has always wanted to hit German car exports (and he’s basically said as much) but he had to go for “steel” first.

    The “smart” move from EU was to cut their own tariffs on cars, etc to meet US levels – take the moral high ground and knock the ball back to Trump. US car co.s aren’t going to massively increase market share in EU but my guess is EU paranoia and ego couldn’t allow they to do the “smart” move and tomorrow or early next week we’ll get the “stupid” move that gives Trump the excuse to hit cars.

    Sadly until we fully leave we’re stuck with “stupid” (Juncker, Maelstrom, Bruno, etc)!

    I could point to trade balances showing why we should be on the US side of this war (assuming it happens) but I’m not so politically n4ive to think its wise for Brexiters to play the Trump card! We’ll just have to take the collateral damage of still being with “stupid”.

    NB. I think I mentioned y’day how EU started back in the day. Coal and Steel “community”. Progress has been a steel cartel to a car cartel!

  12. US China having a trade war of sorts atm.

  13. NickP: What happens now?

    Here is my attempt at listing the possibilities for the status immediately after the A50 period ends.

    1. No Withdrawal Agreement

    I think this is very unlikely, given that the government, opposition and EU are all against this outcome.
    It could happen due to some kind of constitutional accident where all ways forward are blocked (see #5). But I would expect a short extension of the A50 period to allow a resolution (e.g. new government, election, whatever).

    2. Minimal WA

    This could occur where there is no agreement on trade or border issues but both sides think it better to have a WA containing other items that are agreed: citizens’ rights, money, security and (crucially for the UK) continuation of the Common Travel Area. There would be no transition and WTO rules would apply immediately. There would be a hasty construction of control posts for goods at the Irish border.

    This is also pretty unlikely, but not as impossible as 1. It is the scenario where the DUP and brexit ultras have the upper hand in directing the government (e.g., if there is a change of Tory PM) and parliamentary opposition to the deal fails.

    3. WA plus fudge

    This is where the government accepts the EU’s terms for the WA, including the NI special status backstop. It requires May to call the DUP’s bluff, possibly sweetening it with layers of fudge in the form of unworkable alternatives to the backstop (similar to the clauses already in the draft WA) or pledges that the UK will match EU regulations so there is minimal Irish Sea border control. There would be a transitional period and also a political declaration on future negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement which would be suitably vague so it could be interpreted many different ways. It postpones the day of reckoning on trade issues to the FTA negotiations and the end of 2020.

    This looks like the current direction of travel for the government.

    Would the DUP bring down Theresa May over it? The problem for them is that their only leverage is to threaten a general election, after which their position can only weaken (if it is no longer a minority Tory government), or stay much the same (in which case it solves nothing). I can’t see them supporting a Labour government.

    Would this WA get through the “meaningful vote” in Parliament? That’s hard to fathom, since it depends on the unpredictable Tory rebels, hence there are a number of alternative scenarios in case it doesn’t.

    4. WA plus EFTA

    The UK could easily join EFTA and this could presumably be bolted on to the current WA draft. This does provide a number of FTAs with a substantial part of the rest of the world (e.g. Mexico, China, Canada, EFTA states,…), which the UK may be able to join (I’m not clear how much additional negotiating that would require). EFTA membership is not a government aim, although it does not contradict any of its red lines. It does not regulate trade with the EU. Switzerland is in EFTA and has dozens of additional agreements with the EU, an arrangement that the EU thinks works poorly and is determined not to repeat. The Switzerland option is therefore not available.

    Thus EFTA membership (without EEA) will not solve the main problem of trade with the EU, so it does not seem likely that this will be put forward as a solution to anything (though the level of debate is so poor, nothing surprises me any more).

    5. WA plus EFTA plus EEA

    This is the soft brexit scenario. Joining EFTA is required to (re)join the EEA. The EEA means single market membership which mostly solves the NI border issue and also the Dover-Calais friction problem. It is a significant departure from the government’s “red lines” so presumably would require a major political upheaval to get there.

    This is possible but there are significant hurdles. Parliament could legislate to require it, but that’s of little use unless a PM and government can be installed to negotiate it with the EU and EEA. The main way this could happen would be a U-turn by May, who could implement it with some support from other parties, e.g. Labour backbenchers and the SNP, and endure some kind of Tory meltdown. If May can’t/won’t continue, the problem is Labour would insist Corbyn is PM but the Tory rebels would never agree to that. So it could drift into deadlock, requiring an election or referendum to resolve it.

    6. Remain in EU

    The A50 notification could be revoked before it results in brexit.

    This is highly unlikely unless there is another referendum that mandates it. This could happen if a majority in Parliament thinks the proposed FTA with the EU is a poor deal and Parliament insists on a Deal vs Remain referendum before the A50 period runs out.

  14. TW: I think SJ and the two of us discussed the case of JLR opening a supposedly non-viable!?!? plant in Slovakia

    Who supposed it’s non-viable? Not me, or anyone with an ounce of common sense. Why would JLR build a non-viable plant?

    What I did say is that minimum viable size depends on a lot of factors. One of the main ones is the value and profit margin on the product.

    (This is obvious stuff, which I thought you’d know, hence shorthand of ‘depends on many factors’).

    So a plant making Rolls-Royces that retail at £200k with a margin of £50k can be viable at what, 2,000 a year? Likewise McLaren.

    At the other extreme, if you wanted to set up a new plant producing a small, cheap, low-margin standalone car, you might need to make 500k to make good money (and achieve a dominant market position).

    Other obvious factors are whether it’s just an assembly plant, putting together components mostly produced elsewhere, in which case you can get away with less investment and lower volumes in a more labour-intensive plant. That’s how Ellesmere Port has survived thus far. If it’s a full manufacturing plant, with its own presses, hundreds of robots and so on, the volume threshold for viability goes up.

    Another important factor is whether the plant is designed to produce a single model, or several.

    So, in short, 150k may be viable for JLR because Zilini will be producing comparatively low-volume, high-margin cars for a local market. But I would be very surprised if the plant isn’t designed to accommodate expansion to two or three times the initial volume.

    Why bother to post all this? Because, as usual, you have tried to reduce a complex, multi-faceted question to a glib point-scoring exercise.

    Anyway, back to enjoying my thunderstorm.

  15. @Trevor Warne – “@ ALEC – I’m guessing you’ve been busy….”

    No, as it happens. Lovely relaxing day off work, getting the garden into shape.

    Like others, I’m enjoying your holiday.

  16. I have to declare an interest.

    I am a grammar school educated remainer.

    I’m glad I’ve got that off my chest, I feel much better now.

  17. Home Office displaying its competence in handling migration and controlling the border.

    Due to its incompetence in not returning her passport to a Nigerian woman who was refused leave to extend her work visa, and wanted to return home – she couldn’t make any of the 3 flights she booked.

    HO then had her arrested for overstaying.

    https://www.freemovement.org.uk/woman-denied-passport-then-detained-for-failure-to-leave-uk/

  18. Looking like Rajoy will lose no confidence vote tomorrow. Current declared voting intent –

    In favour (of motion) 180 Against 169 : Abstain 1.

  19. COLIN

    “it will just result in a syntactic black hole of Carfewsian proportions.”

    Blimey, don’t provoke him. And you spelt his name wrong.

    TREVOR

    You should try to spend more time with your family when yer on holiday. You could explain your views on brexit to them perhaps – that would be nice for them.

  20. CROFTY

    Thanks-yes I did indeed-but its a made up word so can I spell it how I want ?

  21. COLIN

    I dunno how to break this to you, but ALL words are made up – even [for example] “Colin”.

  22. Savona switched from Fiance to European Affairs.

    :-)

  23. Colin

    “switched from Fiance to European Affairs”

    I’m not onw to be prudish, but that suggests a switch from an official sexual relationship to one involving many partners.

    It that appropriate for this site?

  24. Not Cogent enough Norman but good effort.

  25. Colin seems to be going from the monastic (Carfewsian) to the hedonistic (european affairs).

    JimJam ?

  26. Trevor warne,
    ” If the US-EU trade war escalates…”

    It isnt an EU-US trade war, rather a US-world trade war.

  27. It’s not particularly baffling, but with a welter of claims now emerging from Conservative party members of examples of Islamophobia and basic racism within the party, the Mail and Telegraph are running no stories at all on this crisis.

    Unless we see a more even handed approach to this story in the coming days, it lends weight to those arguing that the emphasis placed on Labour’s issues with anti semitism in parts of the media was not entirely based on a simple desire to root out racism.

  28. ON:

    Do you know when the QC gave his judgement about the Nigerian lady shamefully treated by the Home Office.

    The link article is dated 29 May 2018, so maybe this month.

    I hope Sajid Javid makes a full apology, invites the lady to stay/return to the UK, and gives a proper compensation payment. I realise he wasn`t in charge of the HO when the events occurred, but SJ needs to get a grip of the HO now.

    And cancel all these attempts to evict useful long-stay “foreigners”.

    “” Ms Eroje came to the UK to do charity work and made numerous attempts to leave the country as required. She was simply unable to do so due to Home Office incompetence. The decision to detain her demonstrates an attitude of contempt towards foreign nationals within the department. Even those who support tough immigration control must wonder about how the Home Office has behaved here””.

    The HO incompetence was not returning the passport, so she was turned away from flights she had booked.

  29. Colin

    I’m a little baffled why you are rejoicing the future suffering of the Italians. You are normally very much supportive of the creatures of all kinds of habitats (including the birds and green pastures).

  30. The Pensions Regulator Chief Exec has announced her early resignation after a HoC MPs` committee lambasted the regulator over the soft-touch treatment they gave to Carillion.

    I paste from the DTel:

    “”Carillion | The committee’s key findings

    On the directors:

    Richard Adam, the former finance director, was the “architect of Carillion’s aggressive accounting policies”. The sale of all his shares after his voluntary departure a year before its collapse, were “the actions of a man who knew where the company was heading”

    Chief executive Richard Howson was the figurehead for a business that “careered progressively out of control under his misguidedly self-assured leadership”

    Chairman Philip Green was an “unquestioning optimist” when his role should have been to challenge

    On the Big Four

    KMPG was “complicit” in the company’s “questionable” accounting practices, “complacently signing off its directors’ increasingly fantastical figures” over its 19 year tenure as Carilion’s auditor””

    In some parts of the UK people are pretty angry that Carillion`s mismanagement has caused such a mess. The top brass creamed off money that should have gone to the workforce and sub-contracting little companies.

  31. Alec & others
    I remember positing a few weeks back that the enthusiasm of the Tories to play the anti-Semitism card might well rebound in ways that only an historical and political illiterate wouldn’t be able to see thundering towards them, or “unexpected” as they would probably describe it.

    A year into this dismal Parliament we’ve had refusing to meet the Grenfell survivors and bereaved, and failure to rehouse the survivors within the promised timescale, ministers resigning for speaking untruths to power over meetings in Israel and practising hand exercises with the aid of a work computer, Windrush and another resignation for forgetting that the PM had personally introduced quotas for getting rid of people regardless of whether they have the right to live here, with additional branches to the story bursting into leaf daily. The government seen determined to alienate half the population in their desperation to deny women in northern Ireland rights which are taken for granted in most of the rest of the world, and now they’re about to face the music for Islamophobia during Ramadan.

    Health, education and housing are broken, their own council leaders are warning that local government is about to collapse, and all that’s going on even without mentioning the shambles of Brexit.

    On the subject of Brexit, in case anyone here has made it through this so far and is experiencing withdrawal from the EU symptoms, I heard Peter Bone on the radio tonight warning the PM not to listen to those who shout most loudly about Brexit.

    One would need a heart of stone not to laugh were it not all so relentlessly grim.

  32. @ Alec – “with a welter of claims now emerging from Conservative party members of examples of Islamophobia and basic racism within the party, the Mail and Telegraph are running no stories at all on this crisis.”

    In the case of the Telegraph at least you can’t have looked terribly hard as it has been there all day…
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/31/tories-urged-launch-independent-inquiry-islamophobia/

  33. Edge of Reason

    Well, if you go through their main page, it is nowhere. Rather similar to Guardian – they came out with four articles on the issue in the last 24 hours (and some a few days ago), yet none are on the normal page view.

    I don’t think there is any conspiracy – if one clicks on the plus sign on home news, it is there in both newspapers’ website, but if you don’t do it, you won’t see it. And I guess most wouldn’t.

    It’s just the relationship between the nature of the news and newspapers’ business models. This is why one if one has enough time finds fascinating articles on The Independent, but it is a challenge.

    It’s not new, Halberstram wrote about it in the 1970s. Still better than the alternatives.

  34. @LASZLO

    Aye, there’s a fair difference between saying that a story isn’t on the homepage and saying that it’s deliberately not being covered tho.

    I suspect the “main page” view thing gets more complicated given some sites will configure some of the stories you see based on what they think you’re interested in, your tracked record of stories read etc? For me for example the coverage of this on the Guardian’s main page has been very prominent today but clearly not for you?

    Also the Guardian I know has different versions – the front page looks very different depending whether the device I’m on thinks I’m in the UK, the US or France (the company I work for means my IP address can vary several times in a day).

  35. EDGE OF REASON, noted the Torygraph hasn’t gone to town on the ‘Islamophobia’ story, one all most’s gets the impression they really don’t want to tell the story. Now if it had been about La…

  36. @PETE

    I’m not sure what you’re expecting here – the DT are covering the story but treating it as much less of a big deal than the Guardian are, because the latter has a vested interested in making it a big deal and the former has a vested interest in playing it down.

  37. Pete, EOR: the story will become a “big” one if the Tories announce some kind of investigation into the matter. They therefore have no incentive to do so.

    My diagnosis is that the tumour could be cut out now – but it won’t be as that would merely highlight its presence. But leave it in there, and it’s likely to spread.

  38. LASZLO

    The future of Italy is a matter for Italian voters.

    You & I can make judgements about it all day long from a distance-but we don’t count.

  39. OLDNAT

    :-)

    What was that Private Eye euphemism-Ugandan affairs I think .

  40. ““I do think we have to reconnect with Russia,I am not very happy with the state of our relations. We will never accept what Russia did with Crimea or eastern Ukraine. But nevertheless, we have to have in mind that the entire territory of the European Union is about 5.5m sq km. Russia [is] 70.5m [sq km].”

    Jean-Claude Juncker

    I wonder what Mark Rutte,thought of that ?

  41. @ Alec

    “it lends weight to those arguing that the emphasis placed on Labour’s issues with anti semitism in parts of the media was not entirely based on a simple desire to root out racism.”

    That emphasis was encouraged by New (now “old”) Labour agitators.

    I’m not saying there isn’t a problem there amongst some of the left wing elements in Corbyn Labour, but I think the flip-flopping over the Russian Nerve Agent scandal hit Labour more in the polls.

  42. BREXIT JOKES
    @ Alec
    “but talk of stealing jokes reminded me of my favourite Brexit joke,”

    In my experience you don’t have to make formal “jokes” about Brexit to get a reaction. If I just say “Brexit”, people begin to laugh & then sob hysterically.

    I suppose the lack of good jokes about Brexit tells us it really isn’t funny at all.

  43. @ Crofty re T Warne.
    “You should try to spend more time with your family when yer on holiday. You could explain your views on brexit to them perhaps – that would be nice for them.”
    Lol, as young people used to say. I am trying resolutely to be as behind the times as possible to fit in with Brexit “culture”.

    I have honestly never read a T Warne post. There is something about the form or shape of them which is looks indigestible, like cold suet pudding.

  44. @Edge of Reason – thanks for that. I had suspected they would have a story about somewhere, but all I did was scroll through the online main page last night and I couldn’t find anything. I was seeking to compare this to their coverage of the Labour story, when they ran repeated news stories about it in prominent positions, including several times as their lead story, along with an endless stream of comment and opinion pieces from their regular contributors giving different angles on the story.

    I mean, the entire balance here is rather bizarre. Only a couple of days ago we had a leading Jewish figure being quoted suggesting that Jews may decide to leave the UK because of the leader of the opposition’s failure to address anti semitism. Evidence? Thin, to the point of non existent.

    This morning, I haven’t yet seen any articles suggesting wealthy Arab investors might take their money elsewhere because the governing party displays entrenched Islamophobia.

    But I might have missed them.

  45. @ SJ – So it wasn’t you that said the minimum size of a car plant needed to be 300,000 cars?

    If you just read that in some pro-EU article and didn’t check the info before believing it then fair enough but don’t expect everyone else to be as lazy checking facts!

    @ DANNY – Agree it is a US-World trade war and US playing a dangerous game. Some in US would argue the GAFA+ fines and GDPR were “first strike” from EU “attacking” US service companies but that is pushing it.

    The issue is what happens next. If, most likely when, EU retaliate on goods that clearly have no “national security” risk then IMHO they are playing into Trump’s hand. He is quite happy to “go to war” and sacrificing a pawn (steel) to go after the queen (cars) is such an obvious play that even my 13yr old can see it and would leave the pawn where it is and make a move elsewhere on the board!

  46. Alec,

    I suspect that Islamophobia is tolerated by more of the population than anti (Jewish) semitism is.

    Indeed, I would go further and suggest sadly that ignorant casual distrust of ‘muslims’ is widespread in our society.

  47. Speaking of 13yr olds, my son has calculated how to be a billionaire (like Soros) without liberating any countries from the Eternal Recession Mechanism 2 (ERM2 = Euro)

    At £32.50 per declaration and 2mins to complete (he’s a slow typer and would be browsing social media, etc at the same time), 35hr week, 45weeks per year (he’d be happy to join a trade union) then someone could earn:

    £1,535,625 per annum post Brexit filling in customs declarations.

    To be a billionaire though you need to run the company that employees these people. He respects the moral case against FoM so would hire UK media studies grads and base the company in UK, paying UK taxes.

    So to get from 47,250 customs declarations per employee to Thompson’s 200million number (he hasn’t thought about European expansion in case no mutual recognition of services) you’ll need 4,000 employees.

    He’d generously pay £535,625 p.a. (before tax)to his employees so they could quickly pay off their student loans leaving £1mm for himself per employee.

    £1mm x 4,000 meaning his company would make £4bn per year.

    Best of all he could run the whole thing in 10mins per day from the beach – he is a little lazy!

    Of course 52% of voting age folks know the Thompson number is b*llocks but since fag packet maths is believed by 48% it was good to keep the young ‘uns brain ticking over!

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